Longs and shorts: short analysis!It seems like people is opening more shorts (red line) with respect to (green line).
This keeps pressure for the bulls and the price is not showing bounce signals.
Keep also in mind that the total shorts opened are still less than total long opened.
We suggest to keep short and longs in consideration before making any trade on ethereum, as the price is very volatile due the low volumes.
Market
When will the Plunge Protection Team strike?That the Plunge Protection Team has been called in means there is big trouble! The PPT is a real lawful entity designed to manipulate the US Stock Markets. It is officially known as the Working Group on Financial Markets (WGFM). It was created by by President Reagan’s Executive Order 12631 in 1988 following the 1987 crash. Its purpose is to lawfully prevent catastrophic market crashes. All the above factual knowledge is available from reputable sources findable via your fav search engine.
This is both good and bad news. Those short in the market could protect their positions - and if they have enough guts take long positions for a limited period. It's not my business to say when to do this, as I have no advance knowledge of the future or when the PPT will strike!
Note carefully that my language above is speculative, except that Dow and Wall Street are in big trouble. This is now common knowledge as the fall in the market has well exceeded the respected figure of 16%. If/when the PPT weighs in it'll have to be with billions and billions of US-Dollars, as loads of people are likely to set up sell orders for the next opening of the markets.
That the PPT has been called in does not mean that they have a 100% chance of moving the US markets north.
It all depends on whether they have enough to push back the deluge of selling they're likely to meet. Nobody I know, knows exactly how the PPT works. Perhaps they will get first orders, beating back all regular investors from selling or shorting . That would make sense. If they are successful, Forex pairs especially those with Yen and AUD could be affected by indirect effect. What it would mean for US-Dollar strength, is another problem.
Note also that other countries have variants of the PPT, some operating covertly.
The best Van Tharp's Quote!! Read all his books!SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY
Van Tharp “When you understand what’s involved in winning, as do professional gamblers, you’ll tend to bet more during a winning streak and less during a losing streak. However, the average person does exactly the opposite: he or she bets more after a series of losses and less after a series of wins.”
Over the 18 years of trading the Futures/ Stocks and Currencies market, Van Tharp's books have help me immensely.
I suggest you read his books. Some of them are listed below;
Trade your way to financial freedom
Super Trader
Trading Beyond the Matrix
Safe Strategies for financial markets
Financial freedom through electronic day trading
I have a large collection of trading books. If anyone needs suggestions on great trading books i would be happy to send you a list :)
Money Management & Psychology 101SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY
Money Management/Psychology
Cycle of Market Emotions
The Upturn
• Optimism: The normal financial specialist enters the market feeling hopeful. They may likewise have elevated requirements for the profits in which they are involved.
• Excitement: When the market goes up, the desires begin to end up noticeably a reality and the financial specialist encounters commitment.
• Thrill: The market proceeds up and the financial specialist is excited.
• Euphoria: As the market achieves its peak, the financial specialist is euphoric and very certain that the market will proceed up.
The Downturn
• Anxiety: The market starts to plunge, producing sentiments of nervousness (Point 5).
• Denial—The market keeps on falling, and the financial specialist experiences dissent with so many considerations as "It's alright, I'm in it for the long run," and "This is only a transitory misfortune," (Point 6).
• Desperation and Panic—As the market cycles bring down still, sentiments of urgency and anger follow (Points 7 and 8, separately).
• Surrender—Panic, in the long run, offers an approach to surrender when the financial specialist supposes "How might I have been so off-base? I cannot deal with being in the market anymore. I can't take any more misfortunes," (Point 9).
The Bottom and the Recovery
• Depression: While the financial specialist flounders in wretchedness (point 10), the market winds up in a sorry situation and offers a route to another bull.
• Hope: As the market keeps on reinforcing, the financial specialist is confident that the market will proceed up (Point 11).
• Relief: Once the market affirms it is in an uptrend, the speculator feels alleviation, however, they are as yet not sufficiently sure to contribute (Point 12).
• Optimism: The financial specialist holds up until the point that they feel idealistic once more (Point 1 or frequently significantly later) before re-entering the market. As we portrayed over, this typically does not occur until the point that they have officially missed a huge bit of the up move, and their opportunity to recover misfortunes with it.
Position Structure
There are several trading software’s, which empowers the individuals to either structure or drive their framework by an individual or by position. Before the data is set-up in the control tables, an individual should choose which technique to utilise. The framework forms the data contrastingly relying upon the person’s decision. When the software is driven by an individual, work codes are utilised to arrange work information into gatherings. These codes are utilised to connect individual information to work information. When the software is driven by position, despite everything, work codes are utilised to make general gatherings or occupation arrangements in the association, for example, EEO (measure up to business opportunity) and pay review information.
Use your own eyes & experience over oscillators. My bread and butter is RSI and MACD divergence, I cannot look at 15 charts or more at the same time so I use alerts with those.
But I know to trust my own judgement over what some indicator tells me.
In these examples, and I could show countless more, what eyes tell us is what is right, not what the oscillators tell us. Yes, I know, I am comparing 2 different assets. Does not matter it works the same.
Gigantic candle? You are not going to beat it all by yourself (well maybe in crypto you will if you are a whale that enjoys manipulating the price but why risk your money?). Wait for others to start buying/selling before you go in the same direction.
"Experts" all say you win by going agaisnt the herd. Well they are all wrong, and stupid. The price moves in the direction of the majority, ALWAYS.
Or to be more precise, where the most money is. 10 billion dollar buying and 1 billions dollar selling? The sellers won't win because they "go against the herd",
10 > 1 hence buyers are stronger ==> We go up!!!!
Join the herd, simply be smarter. "Panic sell" before they do, wait for the front line to go in early and join after the battle started and the ones no one will remember died. They did the heavy lifting for you, all you have to do is wave your sword around, cut into pieces bruised tired solders, and get out before reinforcements arrive. You will be remember as the hero savior that destroyed them all 1 to 10, outnumbered!
(Kinda like what the USA did when they "freed" europe, after the soviet union got 20 million casualties to destroy the bulk of the NAZI army - No I do not hate the USA lol I'm just saying)
For GBPJPY:
No divergence, but the sellers clearly showed up,
and we went back up with less strengh I can see
it with my own eyes.
What the oscillators say does nto matter.
They are simply here to help us.
And for that Bitcoin example :)
Also, Bitcoin went up and made a lower high with hidden divergence on both macd and RSI 1 hour chart.
In this case, it can be used as further confirmation of "yep, sellers are back in force we going doooown!"
I swear I picked examples at random not the "perfect ones".
FOMO in and PANIC SELL quickly and you will be rewarded immensly. But FOMO while TAKING YOUR TIME. If you want to buy, wait for OTHER BUYERS to show up MASSIVELY before you join them. That all comes with experience. So if you are not there yet learn to play and git gud.
NO ONE makes money by going in too early. EVER.
DJIA Dow Jones Industrial Average- MARKET CYCLES Lesson OneIntroduction to Market Cycles
Lesson One
Markets are more predictable than you and I have been led to believe. We have been told that historical data cannot be used to predict what will happen. But is that statement actually true?
Answer -- YES and NO. It is not a lie. Even with the best techniques of technical analysis and analyzing the repetitive and predictable cycles which occur, we can make a fairly accurate prediction of future movements, but it is not 100% reliable. We must always leave some room for the unexpected to occur at any moment. That is true!
But, can we learn to analyze market cycles in such a way that we can get a fairly accurate prediction of a rough prediction of future movements? My answer is YES! Not with 100% accuracy though. But honestly, even a 60% accurate prediction would be good. But I think we can do much better than 60 percent. I expect if we work at this method we can approach 80-90% accuracy But How?
I am going to take you on a journey of discovering market cycles which occur in every chart on every time frame. These cycles have been staring at you in the face, but you likely have not noticed them. They are hidden in plain sight. Perhaps some of you already see these cycles, and some of them are more obvious than others. Maybe you already know all you need about market cycles on every level, in which case, why read more?
My prediction is that not all of you will be able to understand or believe what I will tell you, maybe you will say I am crazy! If I am crazy, then let me be crazy, because this is working for me, better than other methods have. But if this is not helpful for you, then of course, I wish you well and hope you find something that is helpful.
This method of analyzing charts does take a lot of work, mental effort and concentration. There is nothing easy about it. If you are looking for a quick and easy way to trade successfully then you should try looking somewhere else. It will take hard work and time and motivation to perfect this strategy.
All this to say, if you don’t like what I am writing for any reason, you do not have to read this. You are completely free by me to stop reading now.
First – we are taking about Market cycles – what is a market cycle ?
People may mean different things but I am talking about recurring cyclical patterns in any chart.
Sometimes we draw cycle diagrams in a circle – which is perfectly fine, but if we want to stretch out the cycle and measure a recurring cycle over time, then we need to use the example of a SINE WAVE. Sine waves are everywhere in nature. We have sine waves in SOUND WAVES, alternating current electricity, signal data, electromagnetic waves including radio, magnetic waves, light waves, xrays, gamma rays, etc.
We can also use the sine wave to describe natural changes in the world – if we were to measure the quantity of light in the 24 hour cycle where we live, it would look like a sine wave. If we were to measure the cycle of inspiration and expiration, it would be a sine wave. If we were to measure temperature fluctuations in a temperate zone around the year, it would roughly form a sine wave. What about waking and sleep cycles, etc? There are many other examples.
But in terms of the market, our sine wave describes two important phases – GROWTH and REST. GROWTH and REST, GROWTH and REST. Depending on the overall position of multiple cycles Rest can be a major correction, or just a flat zone, or even simply slower growth. But one thing is very important to understand – every chart and every market has MANY MANY MANY different cycles or sine waves of many different time durations, and amplitudes which are all occurring at the same time. If it were just one sine wave on a flat pattern, it would be obvious to everyone and there would be no need for me to point this out.
(Continued in update section)
Part 3 - The Markets.. Know what market you are trading in!!What is trend?
Trend is the direction in which the market moves. An upward trend consist out of higher highs and an downward trend with lower lows.
* Upward trend
* Downward trend
This is called the sideway market, which also is called trading range:
This is an neutral trinagle, where we see lower highs and higher lows. At this markets it is better to wait what the market will do. Every time the price drop, buyers are gettin earlier in, but the sellers are also selling earlier.
Upward Triangle, There are more buyers joining the market.
This one is the downward market. The lower lows are staying equal, the highs are gettin lower. At this time people are waiting for the right time to buy.
We see here a false move. When u think the market will turn on, it makes a false move and getting lower.
This one is called the broadening market. The highs will become higher and the lows lower. A broadening market says that there is a lot of uncertainity. This is an market with high risks. This will be seen a lot at the ending of upward markets.
Part 2: Principles of the Dow-TheoryOne of the most influential instruments for analysing the financial markets is the Dow theory from Charles Dow. This theory has six principles:
1. everything is processed in the indices or market averages;
2. the market has three trends;
3. each primary trend consists of three phases;
4. the market averages must confirm each other;
5. the volume must confirm the trend;
6. a trend remains intact until there are definitive signals that it is reversed.
@1: everything is processed in the indices or market averages
All the information is processed within the prices. The historical price is the only objective information what the technical analyst has.
@2: the market has three trends;
Primary trend: longer than 1+ year
Secondary trend: correction within the primary trend
Mino trend: Shorter than three weeks
upward trend : This are series of higher higs;
downward trend : Serie lower lows;
@3. each primary trend consists of three phases;
1. the first phase/accumulation phase : big investors buying in, the market is not well known yet
2. second phase (all prices starting to rise): trend-folowwing investors steps in
3. third phase/distribution phase (when there is more positif news, the not initiated investor steps in): In this phase nobody wants to sell because the prices are rising very hard, only the big investor takes their profit in this phase.
@4. the market averages must confirm each other;
The market averages has to confirm each other. I'm looking at the total market movement.. When u follow the market u see that the average of the market is moving the same direction.. This confirms the trend direction..
@5. the volume must confirm the trend;
If the primary trend goes up, the volume should increase, downward corrections will take place with less volume. A decrease in the primary trend is usually accompanied by more volum, while we should see less volume with the upward corrections.
@6. a trend remains intact until there are definitive signals that it is reversed.
The next figures shows the end of the trend.
When to Sell??
"failure swing" : The new top B is not capable of getting higer than the previous top A. After that the price is getting down , when it reaches S this is an signal for selling!
Nonfailure swing : C becomes higher tan previous top A. But after that it goes down under B. S1 is the first position where to sell youre share. If you missed S1 then take S2 for stepping out.
Now whe know when we have to sell, but we know when to buy before we can sell.. This figures shows our first buying target... This is how we can search our buying target!!
When to buyl??
"Failure swing bottom" : This image shows how you can recognize an uprising trend. The price sets for the first time a higher low (C is higer than A), we set our buying target on B. After the price goes above B the uprising trend will start.
"Nonfailure swing bottom" : Here we see the price is getting lower (C is lower than A), but after that the price goes above the stopover (B)..
In this case u can see this as the first signal for a bullish market, place buy order at B1.. If you want confirmation (this could lead for missing B1) of an bullish market, then wait for E.. When E is higher tan A, this is an confirmation of bullish market.. Then place your Buy orders...
This are all signals what u can use for finding the trend withing the market. It is hard to say when the market is turned. There are a lot of different opninios about the trend and charts by using technical analysis... The dow theory does not give you any certainty or guaranty.. This is just a tool to get a signal for the market.. It is up to u what to do with it.
How to use the Moving Average Convergence ModelThe "Moving Average Convergence Model," also known as the "MACD Model," is one of the most widely used indicators for trading endeavors. It consists of two lines representing the short term and long term moving averages. The blue line represents the 12 day short term moving average or SMA for short. Likewise, the orange line represents the 26 day long term moving average or LMA for short.
As shown in the chart, the SMA recently confirmed it's drop below the LMA. This drop displays that in the short run, the stock's price has moved below the long run average. Knowing this, you can imply that the support level has been broken and the asset will begin its decent in price.
In the past, you can observe how when the orange line is above the blue line, the price plummets. And while the blue line is above the orange line, the stock price increases.
To Get Started With MACD:
1) Head to your chart and hit the "Indicators" tab in the top middle.
2) Type "MACD" in the search bar
3) Start off with the original one at the top, as you become more advanced with the indicator you can pick and choose a better option for you
Typical Intervals May Be:
- 12:26 (typical interval)
- 13:34 (for very short term trading)
NZDUSD DESCENDING CHANNEL EXPLAINED!!!!!!MARKET ANALYSIS: The market has broken the huge uptrend channel and now its moving to a sell. Now in the lower time frame we have descending channel formation. We have strong support zone near the market price now. If the support zone is broken we can see a new lower low for a huge shorting opportunity. So lets wait and see what the market does in the coming days. Cheers!