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MAN AND MONEY vs VIRUS! WHO WILL WIN?The picture of the 2019-nCOV is rapidly evolving. Globally there have been >14,000 cases and >305 deaths. The trajectory of spread of this virus has exceeded SARS (2003). In under 20 days there are 14,544 cases. There were less than 20 cases in the same period for SARS. SARS plateaued off at 8,500 cases after 100 days then fell off. What we're seeing in hard evidence is that nCOV is going rapidly exponential - almost doubling in 20 days what SARS reached in 100 days. 8 countries have effectively quarantined China in various ways. AND NOW - China has told everybody to calm down, that it will maintain financial stability and pump their market with USD$173 Billion from Monday 3rd February 2020. The FED and Australia are considering similar moves. The global economic disruption in what was a 'risk-off' situation, is gonna be serious and probably last well over a year. This doesn't mean that the markets will tank over the next year. It means expect bearish pressure. Think also about an 'endpoint'. How will anybody know when it is safe to open borders, trade and travel in China? If the VIX gets above 53 there is serious trouble! Declarations & Disclaimers: For the avoidance of doubt, this post is only about potential impact of a virus in financial contexts. I take no comfort at all in people suffering and dying. Whilst I am sorry about the human consequences, I deal with the markets as an instrument - like any other. It is not illegal or immoral to exploit the movement of any market for any cause. As usual this is not trading advice. If you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
SP:SPXEducation
by Captain_Walker
How do virus attacks affect Wall Street?This is a very short presentation on how previous virus attacks have affected Wall Street (daily time frame). I go back to 2013, plotting what was seen. This is relevant in relation to the recent Wuhan coronavirus (WCV). Mainstream media have referred to WCV as a "deadly virus". This is frankly nonsense based on current data. The case fatality ratio (CFR) is an important measure in assessing lethality of a virus. The CFR for influenza A(H1N1) in 2009 was 0.45%. For ebola virus, it is overall >50%. For the Wuhan coronavirus (WCV) which may not be one virus strain, the CFR is currently estimated at <3% (I cannot provide references here but people can contact me for links to info). But hold on - the 3% is not (at this time) for large populations of those infected. The average age group of people who have been killed WCV is currently around 60. Did I say 'average'? Yes - I did (which means I know there are some people who have been around 30). Attribution of WCV has also not been 100% caused by WCV either. The 'average' age group may fall (or increase) with time. In summary - ebola is definitely a deadly virus - the markets barely flinched if at all to Ebola. - estimates of lethality of WCV are currently not robust. My conclusion - The media is responsible for selling its news. The media have been irresponsible in feeding panic, in selling its news. News and panic are what rules markets more than hard facts and figures. Will the WCV outbreak be the pin that pricks the bubble? I don't know. It could well be the first of the dominoes to fall, setting off a chain reaction for slow burn down - instead of a serious correction. OR - WCV may well be insignificant. If it is, then expect a raging bull market to rebel! I cannot foresee the future! Declarations & Disclaimers: I am not a virus expert, nor a financial expert. This post is opinion only based on data fully available in the public domain. Opinions here are not be be relied upon in making financial or trading decisions. If you who reads this makes such decisions, your losses are your own - should you suffer a loss. You sue yourself if you lose money.
FOREXCOM:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
SCS STEELCASE INC. Breaking Out of The Monthly Major Resistance The Monthly Time Frame at The Around $20 The Market Created In The Past A solid resistance Area It Seems To Be That The MArket Wants To Break That Level Now. The Market On The Monthly Did Not Yet Close Above We Still Have 1 More Day To Go, on The Weekly Though We Can Clearly See That The Market Broke And Close Above, And Is Now Retesting The Previous Highs That Can Become Future Resistance, on The Daily We Can See That The Market For The Past Week Have Been Retracing, What Im waiting To See Now Is If The Market Can Give Me Any Sort Of Entry Confirmation, Should It Be A Bullish CSF or Maybe The Market Will Form Another Short Term Consolidation Then Break It, Lets Wait And See What The MArket Will Show Us.
NYSE:SCSLong
by ElyaStein
REVIEW: DJI (Wall Street), DAX and nuclear options. I've looked into the DJI and the DAX because they are connected. I also considered events affecting the Hong Kong index. In the text below, I consider China's 'nuclear option'. Overall I'd say the probability is greater for the south on these indices (from this point in time). But caution - because there is a residual probability for the north and I can't know how far south the markets may go if the markets are with me. These are very troubled times. 1. The markets are overbought because of QE4.0, lowering of interest rates and high hopes about a China 'Phase one' trade deal. 2. But there is trouble in the Hong Kong Stock market. 3. POTUS signed the Hong Kong Democracy Act which could cause the Chinese to retaliate in some way (nobody knows how). The 15th of December 2019 is an important date on which $160 Billion of tariffs on imports to the USA, get lumped on China or they are withdrawn. If the tariffs are withdrawn, expect markets to head to the moon (stupidly). If the tariffs are applied, expect a correction of some sort. Bond troubles In other trouble China has begun the so called nuclear option of selling off US Treasuries. Note that Treasuries are bonds, which means that money is owed to China by America i.e. they represent a debt owed by the US. Why would China sell off US Treasuries - which are debts owed to China? Perhaps because China expects the US Dollar to be worth less in times to come. It's like this - if I lend you money fixed in USD value, and then you decide to devalue your US dollar by various means, it means I'm getting back less value. For an exploration of Bonds go here . China holds about $1.2 Trillion of US debt. A sell off of US Treasuries is said to destabilise financial markets. How - is a separate complex story. The point is that China's retaliation on the Hong Kong Act could be this 'nuclear option'. The point of all this is that there are complex issues affecting the markets. Disclaimer: Nothing shared here is investment advice or encouragement to trade in securities. If you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
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Analysis of Recent Winning 5th Wave Trade on GNRCOn October 15th 2019 we posted a trade idea on our TradingView Profile >>>HERE<<< for a potential 5th wave long swing trading opportunity on GNRC. This video explains the subsequent bullish move to hit our original 5th wave target and then a further 5th wave swing trading opportunity. This is a great example of our Elliott Wave Indicator suite in action during strong trending moves on Stocks, but is also as effective on Forex,Futures, Commodities and crypto currencies.
NYSE:GNRCEducation
by xBratSoftwareSolutions
PBCT Potential Long 5th Wave move on 60min Time rameUsing the www.tradethefifth.com Elliott Wave Indicator Suite for TradingView we have fond a potential Long 5th Wave Move on PBCT. Video explainsall the tools in the indicator suite that we use to measure the performance of the Wave 4 and hence probability of the 5th wave move. If any of there rules, indicators are broken,we cancel the order. Find out more about our Elliott Wave Indicator Suite for TradingView by watching the video tour >>HERE<<
PLong
by xBratSoftwareSolutions