The birth of the chart. The evolution of the tapeLast time we studied how the exchange price is formed, and we found out that it is important to learn how to read charts correctly in order to analyze price changes correctly. Let's see how a chart is made and what it can tell us.
Everyone who went to school probably remembers: to draw a function, we need the X and Y axes. In stock charts, the X-axis is responsible for the time scale, and the Y-axis is responsible for the price scale. As we already know, a chart is built on the basis of data from a tape. At the previous post , we have produced the following tape:
FB $110 20 lots
FB $115 5 lots
FB $100 10 lots
Actually, in addition to ticker, price and volume the tape also fixes time of trade. Let's add this parameter to our tape:
FB $110 20 lots 12/08/22 12-34-59
FB $115 5 lots 12/08/22 12-56-01
FB $100 10 lots 12/08/22 12-59-02
That's it. Now this data is enough to put points on the chart. We draw three points, connect them with straight lines and get a chart.
At one time, this was enough, because trades on the exchange were not frequent. But now some popular stocks, such as Apple or Google, have hundreds of trades per second with different prices.
If the minimum division on the X scale is one second, what price point should we put if there were many trades at different prices in one second? Or let's place all the points at once?
We will discuss that in the next post. And now, as a postscript, I want to show you some pictures describing how the tape was born and evolved.
Here is a picture of a stock player, looking through a tape with quotations, which is given by a special telegraph machine.
Each telegraph machine is connected by wires which, like a spider's web, entangle New York City.
1930's broker's office with several telegraph machines and a quotation board.
An employee of the exchange looking through a tape of quotes. It won't be long before all this is replaced by the first computers.
We'll continue today's theme soon.
Trade
Market order or the hunger games of stock tradingThe previous parts of the post can be found at the links:
Part 1 - How is the share price formed on the stock exchange? We do it
Part 2 - Bid/Offer: The Yin and Yang of Stock Prices
So, let's continue. So why don't we ever see some orders in the order book?
Because such orders don't have a price, which means they can't be arranged in a book where all orders are sorted by price. This type of order is used by buyers or sellers who don't want to wait for a counter offer with a suitable price.
"But how can you buy or sell something without specifying a price?" - you ask. It turns out it's possible. When you put out an order without specifying a price, the order simply "eats up" the number of lots you need at the prices currently on the books. Such an order is called a " market order ". We can say that the most "hungry" investors who want to satisfy their "hunger" right now use the market order. Remember yourself: when you really want, for example, a cake, you won't stand at the counter and wait for the seller to set the price you want, you'll just buy the cake at the price that's valid at the moment.
So, let's imagine that someone sent the following order to the exchange: " to sell FB stocks in the volume of 20 lots". Such an order will not appear in the book, but it will "eat" all bids within 20 lots, starting with the most expensive ones.
In our example, there were a total of 15 lots left in the book, so the following concluded trades will be printed in the tape:
FB $115 5 lots
FB $100 10 lots
What will happen to the remaining market order of 5 lots (20-15) that couldn't be filled? The exchange will cancel the order for this remainder, as there are no counter offers in the book.
So, let's review what we learned in the current series of posts:
- For each company, the exchange maintains its own order book for buying and selling stocks;
- A buy order is called a "bid";
- A sell order is called an "offer";
- The order must contain the ticker (abbreviated name of the stock), the direction of the transaction (buy or sell), the price per share and the volume in lots;
- The lot size is set by the exchange. It may be equal to 1 share, 100 shares or some other quantity;
- All orders in the book are called "limit orders";
- There is a special type of orders, which are called "market orders". They have the following parameters: ticker, trade direction, volume in lots, and have no "price" parameter.
- The intersection of buy and sell orders by price creates a trade;
- The volume and price of a trade depends on how much volume was "eaten" in the counter offer and at what price;
- The trade is recorded in the tape. Each company has its own tape.
By the way, our book became empty because all limit orders were filled and no new ones came in. As a result, we have a tape of three trades. The trades are recorded in the tape according to when they were made:
FB $110 20 lots
FB $115 5 lots
FB $100 10 lots
So, when you see a flashing stock price somewhere, like in the broker's app, know that it's the last trade in the tape as of the current second. Or if you hear that Tesla stock has reached $2,000 a share, that means that there's a $2,000-a-share deal imprinted in the Tesla tape.
To show how the stock price has changed over time, a chart is made based on the prices of the trades and when they were made. At its core, a chart is a demonstration of how the stock tape has changed over time.
Knowing how to read a price chart is a basic skill that you will use as you invest. I will tell you how to read charts at our next meeting.
Bid/Offer: The Yin and Yang of Stock PricesRead the first part of this post at the link: How is the share price formed on the stock exchange? We do it
So at what price and what volume will the deal eventually be made? To understand this, let's go back to the "price" parameter of the order.
When a buyer placed an order "to buy 25 lots at $115 a share", the exchange takes it as "to buy 25 lots at a price not more than $115 a share". That is the purchase price can be less than the price stated in the order, but not more.
And when the seller earlier submitted an order "to sell 20 lots at $110 a share", the exchange takes it as "to sell 20 lots at a price not less than $110 a share". That is, it is possible to sell at a price higher than that specified in the order, but not less.
Once again: buyers always put orders "buy at no more than such-and-such a price", and sellers always put orders "sell at no less than such-and-such a price".
So, we return to the situation with the crossing of prices. When the exchange detects a crossover, it begins to execute the order that has caused this crossover. In our case, it is an order for 25 lots at $115 per share. This order kind of "eats up" all sell orders that are on the way to the price of $115 (that is, everything cheaper than $115), until it reaches 25 lots.
Which orders were "eaten up" in our case? One single order to sell is 20 lots at $110 per share.
What was "eaten" is recorded as a buy and sell trade in what's called a tape. It's similar to the way a cash register punches a check with a price. The record looks like this:
FB $110 20 lots
However, we have a remainder after the trade is 5 lots, the remainder of those 25 at a price of $115. Since at this price (or lower) nothing can be "eaten", the order remains in the left page of the book until a suitable offer.
Let's see how the FB order book looks now, after the deal is done:
Let me note again that all orders in the book are sorted in descending order from top to bottom.
The concept of "book" is very useful for understanding how the exchange price is formed. In the past, when there were no electronic trading systems, there were so-called floor brokers, who used to collect and record prices and volumes of orders in a real book. Nowadays you may encounter alternative terms like Depth of Market (DOM), Level II, but they are all identical to the notion of an " order book ".
The orders to buy that we see in the order book are called " bids ", and the orders to sell are called " offers ". So, in our order book there are two bids and no offers. All bids and offers are called " limit orders " because they have a price limit.
But there's also a type of order that we will never see in the book. Why? I'll tell you in the next post.
How is the share price formed on the stock exchange? We do itYou already know that the stock exchange is a one-stop place to buy or sell stocks, whether you are a novice investor or a seasoned professional. But even if you don't trade stocks, you will still "come" to the stock exchange to find out stock prices.
Let's find out how the exchange price of a stock is formed. Regardless of what country the stock exchange is in, the rules for determining the price are similar for everyone. Let us understand how it works, as always, with the help of our imagination.
Imagine a large rack of books. Each book has a name on the cover: Apple, Facebook, Amazon, etc. Let's take one of the books, let's say Facebook, and open it. We will see only two pages, and they are both blank. On the left page we will record buyers' orders to buy shares, and on the right page we will record sellers' orders, respectively, to sell shares. So, every day the exchange, when it opens trading, essentially opens such a "book" and records every bid it receives.
What should be written in the order?
First of all, there must be an abbreviated name of the stock, or, in professional slang, the "ticker," to understand which book to get off the shelf. For example, Facebook shares have a ticker consisting of two letters FB, while Apple shares have four letters - AAPL.
Second, the order must indicate the direction of the transaction, i.e. "buy" or "sell". This is how the exchange understands whether to record the incoming information on the left or on the right page of the book.
Third, the order must indicate the price per share, so that the exchange can sort the orders in descending order of price from top to bottom.
Fourth, the order must specify the volume in lots, that is, how many lots of shares we want to buy or sell. To clarify: Shares on the exchange are not traded by the piece, but by the lot. The lot size is set by the exchange. One lot may be equal to one share, or a hundred, a thousand, or even ten thousand shares (depending on the specific share). This is really handy because the price of one share can be equal to, for example, the price of your computer (then 1 lot may be equal to 1 share), and sometimes 1 share may be worth as much as a box of matches (then 1 lot may be equal to a thousand shares). Why "may be"? The specific rules for determining the lot size depend on the laws of the country and the exchange itself. For example, on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the usual size of 1 lot is equal to 100 shares.
So, let's return to our example. Suppose we want to buy shares of FB at a price of $100 per share in the amount of 10 lots. Then the exchange will record the following on the left side of the FB book:
100$ 10
Then there is a seller who wants to sell FB stock at $110 per share in an amount of 20 lots. Then this is what the exchange will record in the right side of the book:
110$ 20
Then there is a buyer who wants to buy FB stocks at $115 per share in an amount of 25 lots. The entry on the left side of the FB book will look like this:
115$ 25
And now comes the interesting part.
Did you notice that the $115 price in the last buy order is higher than the single sell order of $110? That means the buyer is willing to make a deal at a price even higher than what the seller is offering. So at what price and what volume will the deal end up being made?
Please wait for the next post.
Picking rules - the Lynch methodBack in 1977, the still famous investment company Fidelity Investments entrusted the management of a small fund of $18 million to this very man. The next 13 years were impressive for the Magellan fund and its manager - the famous Peter Lynch. The fund's assets grew to $14 billion, more than doubling the average annual growth of the S&P500 stock index.
When he stopped actively managing assets, Peter shared his approach with the rest of us. Some of his thoughts inspired me to create my approach and may be useful to you as well.
1. The private investor has an objective advantage over institutional investors (e.g., funds) because he is more agile. He is not burdened by the need to coordinate his actions with the management of the company, and his purchase requests are easily satisfied by the market. Agreed, it's easier to buy for $1,000 than it is to buy for $1 billion. Thus, the private investor can catch prices that the big "players" will have a hard time getting.
2. Don't spend everything you have under your belt on stock investments. The trades will not be able to close "in the plus" just by your own volition. So first provide yourself with a financial safety cushion, a stable job and a place to live, and then start investing.
3. Admit to yourself: are you a patient person who is capable of making independent decisions, diving deep into analysis and soberly reacting to plus and minus changes? If not, practice, but on small volumes.
4. Never buy a company's stock if you can't explain what it does and can't talk about its financial performance. The stock market is no place for gambling. There are slot machines, etc., for that.
5. The company works for profit and grows because of it. So keep an eye on everything that affects profits. Evaluate the company not in monetary units, but in the number of profits.
6. Watch where the company invests its profits. If it's mostly capital investments that will probably make a profit someday, in the distant future - think about it. After all, the beautiful future as conceived may not come. If, on the other hand, the company is allocating its profits to buying its own stock, it means that management thinks the current stock price is attractive enough.
7. The success of the stock may be unrelated to the company's financial success. Beware of such investments.
8. A company's financial success may not be reflected in its stock price for a long time. However, the longer the period in question, the more direct the relationship. So if you select companies based on an analysis of financial performance, be prepared to make a long-term investment.
To this day, these thoughts help me look at assets consciously and not give in to spontaneous decisions.
What do you think of this approach?
I dream of entering the stock market. The question is: What for?Read the previous part of the post here .
Having received only denials, the owner of the workshop decides the following: it would be great if shares were sold and bought not in the offices of banks, but in one single place - the stock exchange. Then those who want to vote would be able to buy as many shares as they need votes. Those who want a discount will wait until the price on the stock exchange falls to an acceptable level for them. And those who bought one share would be able to sell it at any time at the exchange price. The owner likes this idea and decides to list his shares on the stock exchange.
Another term to remember is listing. Listing is the service of the stock exchange to allow the shares to be traded on the stock exchange.
Now the shares can be bought or sold in one place, simply by connecting to the stock exchange trading through brokerage companies. The banks, which have brokerage licenses, also liked it. The main thing is that now they do not have to convince clients to buy shares for dubious rights, you can just say that the price at the exchange is constantly changing, and if you buy shares at $ 1000 now (in the bank office), then a month later at the exchange you can sell them already at a higher price. This created a real stir around the company's shares, and they were bought up from banks at the IPO price - that is, at the original price of $1,000 per share.
A significant advantage for any investor is the ability to buy or sell shares quickly and easily. That is exactly the kind of opportunity stock exchanges provide. If there were no stock exchange, the owners of shares would have to look for buyers on their own. But now they have the opportunity to connect to the exchange and make a deal at any time.
As soon as the stock exchange started trading, the share price of the workshop came to life. This attracted new investors who tried to buy cheaper shares and sell at a higher price. Such investors include you and me.
So what we know so far:
- A company needs stock to sell a share of its business and get real money.
- Shares can only be issued by a public company.
- Shares give its owner rights: to vote, to receive agreed dividends, and to receive a share from a bankrupt company.
- The initial sale of shares to the public is called an IPO (initial public offering).
- During an IPO, shares are sold not on the stock exchange, but through brokers or banks.
- The first day of stock trading on the stock exchange is the completion of the IPO process.
- In order for the shares to be traded on the stock exchange, the company has to go through the listing procedure.
- It is only possible to buy shares on the stock exchange through a licensed broker.
- The exchange price is constantly changing during trading.
The workshop story may give the impression that we small investors are only being used to get money from us in exchange for unnecessary rights. However, it is important to understand that we are more interested in the opportunity to profit from the growth of the shares than in gaining formal rights. It is this desire that unites all shareholders of a company, whether you have one share or a million.
A joint-stock company can be compared to a hotel with many identical rooms. One share is one room. If the hotel is doing great and making a profit, investors will want to buy more rooms, and sellers will want to sell more rooms at a higher price. If the hotel performs poorly and makes a loss, then room owners will get rid of them (i.e. sell even at an unprofitable price to get money and find another hotel that is more attractive for investment).
The strategy I will share will be to find, figuratively, great hotels (in fact, joint stock companies) during a room sale (i.e., a period of declining stock).
We'll figure out how stock prices are formed on the stock market soon. See you next time!
Stock Company. Selling something that no one will buy piecemealSo, here we go. Start of the story here .
What next? How will he sell something that no one will buy in pieces?
He turns his company into a joint-stock company, which is a form of company organization that allows it to be split into shares. Our owner issues 1 million shares, that is, he sort of divides the company into 1 million pieces. Then he calculates how much his whole business is worth - let's say $1 billion. And if $1 billion divided by 1 million shares, you get $1,000. That's how he calculated the value of 1 share. Recall that our owner has decided to put only 25% of his business up for sale, that is, 250,000 shares. And if we multiply 250 thousand shares by the price of $1 thousand, we get $250 million in total - this is the value of the share of the company he plans to sell.
Now he has to decide: will he sell 25% of the shares to one or more buyers, or even an unlimited number of people. First, he was approached by one large investor who has $250 million to buy all 25% shares. But the investor shared with the owner a plan to grow the company and asked him to place his managers in high positions. The owner of the company didn't like it because he didn't want to lose control of the company, so the deal didn't go through. Then he was approached by several investors who promised him they would stay out of the company's business, but were willing to buy a 25% stake not for $250 million, but for only $200 million. That option did not suit the owner either. Then he decided this way: instead of negotiating with big buyers, I will offer my shares to anyone who is willing to pay 1 thousand dollars for 1 share. This offer is called IPO (initial public offering) . Remember this term, because you'll come across it quite often.
Our owner had agreed with the banks from which he borrowed money, that for a small commission they would sell his shares at $1,000 apiece to absolutely any buyer. But the first buyer asked the bank the question, "What's in it for me to own one share?" Through this question, we come to the point where we find out what owning stock gets us .
The bank answers the prospective buyer that:
- You will be able to manage the stock company by voting on matters of the general meeting of shareholders. The weight of your vote will be one in a million votes.
- You will be able to receive dividends if a majority of the general meeting of shareholders votes "yes" to pay dividends.
- If the company goes bankrupt, you will receive one millionth of its assets left over after all of the company's debts to banks have been paid.
The buyer decided he was being mocked and rejected the offer. After all, why should he have the right to vote if 1 his vote means little in the overall background. Why does he need dividends if they may not be assigned. Why would he need property that would be impossible to sell after bankruptcy.
But more about that in the next post.
What is a stock? Let me tell you a storyNow let's talk about what a stock is, why companies issue them, and why they attract investors.
To do this, imagine a story. Imagine a small shoe workshop with a single owner. Suppose he makes boots out of crocodile leather. His product is unique to the city and in demand, because these boots are very durable and comfortable. At this point, he can only produce one pair of boots a day, and the number of orders for boots is 2 pairs a day. To meet the demand of his customers, he hires an employee and buys twice as much crocodile leather and other necessary materials for the job. With what money? With all the profits previously accumulated. The workshop now meets the demand of two pairs of boots a day.
Later, the workshop receives a corporate order for 90 pairs of boots per month. In order to meet the new order, three more pairs of boots must be produced in addition to those two. But with what money to buy so many materials and hire three more employees? After all, even all of the previously accumulated profit is not enough for such a batch. In order not to miss out on a major customer, the workshop owner goes to the bank for a loan. The bank is happy to give him a loan secured by the workshop (which means that if the owner will not repay the loan, his workshop will be taken away). But all goes well, the owner hires three more workers, buys materials, and puts out five pairs of boots a day. With the proceeds, he pays the loan and interest.
Now, let's go back to that beautiful day when the shop received an order for 90 pairs. The owner could have declined the loan and waited for the accumulated profit, but to do so he would have had to negotiate with a potential buyer for a longer lead time for the entire batch, and that could have resulted in the loss of the order.
What it turns out: he needed the credit in order to ramp up production quickly, and thus the size of the business.
Taking advantage of the credit and constant demand, our workshop owner goes nationwide and becomes the most famous manufacturer of crocodile leather boots with many workshops all over the country. And a lot of people around him want to buy the successful business.
Then he starts thinking: on the one hand, he has a huge business that is profitable, and on the other hand, he has an opportunity to get money in exchange for workshops, stock of materials, employees' labor, business connections and reputation. In short, in exchange for everything he has created with his own hands and head, which is very difficult to sell individually.
He likes the idea, but in order to keep part of his business, he decides that he will sell only a share of his company - 25%. He did the math and realized that this money is enough for the rest of his life (and even to live another life).
What next? How does he sell something that no one will buy in pieces? Let’s continue next time.
Raising initial capital: 4 approaches, of which one is not goodLet's break down the thought from the previous post in more detail. Obviously, to buy stocks, you have to have money, and if you are determined to become an investor, get ready to open your piggy bank. If you don't have savings, however, don't despair, there are other options.
I suggest you look at the following 4 options for acquiring the finances to buy stocks :
- Reduce your current expenses
- Sell unnecessary assets
- Increase your regular income
- And the option I don't recommend using at the start is to borrow.
I immediately stipulate that it is your, and only your responsibility how to apply the knowledge gained - to use something of the proposed or to go another way. I do not insist on anything. Rather, I am sharing information, but the decision is up to you in any case.
My opinion - always start with reducing your current costs, because the funds you save now give you a chance to increase your wealth in the future through investing. Make it a rule to plan your purchases in advance and buy only what is on your list. Don't go to the store without a list, otherwise you will buy more than you really need.
Next. Look at your possessions. Make a list of what you can sell without compromising your financial and mental well-being. Let what you don't need now serve to increase your wealth in the future.
Increasing your regular income is probably the most time-consuming but feasible way to accumulate funds for investment. Many people are often faced with the problem of choosing between a job they love where they don't earn enough and a job they hate with a higher income or, even worse, a job they hate with a paltry income. In the latter two cases, I recommend becoming an active user of services that will help you find the job you want (but don't act in haste, don't quit a job you don't like right away). Remember our goal is to keep and increase our income, not lose it altogether. In the case of a job you love and don't make much money, think about how you can increase your income in your current job. Sometimes all you have to do is make up your mind and ask your employer for it. Even a small increase will help you start saving. And if you have both a job you love and a desired level of income, I congratulate you, you are truly lucky.
Moving on. Borrowing for investments is the riskiest option. I highly do not recommend it, especially at the beginning of your investing journey. You definitely should not take a loan from a bank or other financial institutions. The credit rate will only increase your costs, and the need to repay the loan every month will break your entire investment strategy.
If family, friends or acquaintances are willing to lend you money long-term and without interest, think about whether your lender is aware of the risks and whether you are aware of the risks associated with investing in stocks, and whether this person will demand the money back before the agreed upon deadline. Even if you have agreed on everything, write down all of the terms of such a private loan on paper, so it is easier to resolve any disputes.
I always insist that the investment is conscious, that you understand and are ready to bear the responsibility and risks. So if you have even the slightest doubt about the borrowing option - don't take it! Consider another option. Ideally - work out a step-by-step plan and accumulate the necessary amount of money gradually.
Investing is the ability to say "no" so that you can say "yes"Have a wonderful day, my dear friends!
Let's get acquainted. My name is Capy. Someday I will tell you my stunning life story, and how fate has tied me to investing. I can't quite believe it myself sometimes... But that's not what today is about.
Today I'm starting a series of posts to introduce you to my vision and strategy in the very multifaceted and insanely interesting topic of stock investing.
Let's start by figuring out why you should be an investor?
Many people think that investors are some kind of Wall Street wolves who trade stocks of companies and make unimaginable amounts of money on it. I'm sure there are those too. But, in fact, investing has long ceased to be the monopoly of the employees of banks, brokerage companies or big businessmen.
Investing is available to absolutely everyone who plans their wealth and has the basic knowledge obtained at university. Or aspires to learn this indomitable beast. This is the reason I started this blog: to help everyone who wants to understand and share my ready-made strategy that you can apply in the process of investing.
It's worth saying that every one of us has done the act of investing at least once in our lives, perhaps without even realizing it. For example, when placing money on a bank deposit (the well-known bank deposit), renting out real estate, opening a business or just learning. All these actions have one common formula: you give something away now in order to get it back in the future and, in addition, to make a profit.
When you rent out an apartment, you cannot live in it because you have given it to other people to use. But when the lease expires, you'll get your apartment back, plus a profit in the form of the rent you've been receiving all that time.
When you start a business, you put money into it so you can pay it back later through the proceeds. And, of course, you expect the returns to exceed the costs invested.
When you invest in education, you plan to use what you have learned to achieve something, whether it's getting a job or enriching your inner world.
It is the expectation of profit that is the main motivating factor for the investor and the main purpose of the investment.
If you give someone an apple and they give it back to you after a while, that's not an investment. And if you give someone an apple, and after some time you get two apples back - you are already an investor, because you made a profit in the form of an additional apple.
The upcoming series of posts will focus on one of the investment options - namely, investing in stocks of companies. I plan to teach you how to approach each trade wisely and in a measured way to keep you from engaging in short-term speculation that looks like a casino game.
Going back to our formula, a stock investment is a transfer of your money to a particular company in exchange for a stake in its business. The purpose of these actions is to make a profit in the future from the sale of the shares (in the case of buying cheaper and selling higher), or the second option - to receive dividends. Dividends are when the company shares with you a portion of the profits in proportion to your share in the business. But we will focus on the first option to make a profit, that is "buy cheaper - sell more expensive". And the dividends to consider as a nice bonus to this strategy.
I will publish a new post soon. Let's talk about approaches that will allow you to find funds for investment.
The magic triangle of investingIdeal investment instrument = highest return, lowest risk, highest liquidity.
Risk and uncertainty are an integral part of investment projects and are an important component of investment decision-making. In fact, the connection of return, risk and liquidity represents the magic of the triangle . More precisely, their combination is the result of trying to achieve the best result on one vertex, which results in a loss on another vertex. For example, the best result on all three peaks cannot be achieved simultaneously.
This is the basic principle of how investing works. Also, it is popular as the "alpha and omega" of investing. It consists of return, risk and liquidity - three factors that you should take into account in every investment in the financial market.
Return
The return is one of the three peaks that influence the investor whether to buy the given asset or not. Under income, we include all earnings of an investment from the moment we put funds into it and it lasts until the time of the last possible income from this investment.
Most investors seek to maximize return, given the potential risk and liquidity. However, investment return isn’t guaranteed in most stocks. It is also necessary to distinguish between historical (ex post-was or could have been achieved) and expected return.
Liquidity
The term liquidity refers to the speed with which we are able to exchange our investments back into cash at the lowest possible transaction costs. However, the degree of liquidity depends mainly on the financial instrument itself and the nature of the market. In fact, it is reasonable to know the degree of liquidity, especially when investing. Investors look for goods that are highly liquid, so that in case of a sudden price reduction, they can sell the goods before the prices hit the bottom.
For some types of assets, their liquidity is determined by contractual conditions such as the period of deposit in term deposits. Yet with most financial instruments, the degree of liquidity of the given financial instrument is conditioned by the demand and supply for it.
In addition, there is an opinion that the rate of return corresponds to the risk. Different instruments – different degrees of liquidity – in different markets. Highly liquid are foreign exchange markets, financial derivatives markets, and government bonds. For example, the most liquid assets are shares, where there is no problem of converting them into cash on the stock market without major losses. On the one hand, the least liquid assets appear to be the real estate which, in certain cases can even become non monetizable . This means that they have minimal, close to zero, liquidity. On the other hand, the higher the profitability of the object and location, the higher the demand for them and thus also their liquidity.
Therefore, every investor should consider the composition of assets with different liquidity when compiling an investment portfolio. Also, they should mind the fact that they keep a certain part of the funds as a financial reserve, whether in the form of cash or highly liquid assets.
Risk
Risk is a synonym for a certain degree of uncertainty related to expected returns. In other words, risk appears as the investor's danger that they won’t achieve the expected return. So, the actual return will be different from the expected one in the future and thus there will be a deviation from the expectation. In addition, risk represents a quantity that is difficult to quantify, as it is influenced by several factors, or their combination. Anyone who wants to invest should determine the maximum level of risk that they are willing to bear and forward. If there is no such thing as the ONE perfect investment, then the logical conclusion is: don't put all your available capital into one and the same investment. Therefore, diversification is the magic word. Those who combine several types of investment spread their risk and fulfill each of the criteria of the magic triangle in the addition of all investments.
Money Affects HappinessConventionally, we used to hear the saying, "Money can't buy happiness.". Is it really true? Let's look at some facts about happiness, money, and life.
Easy to talk about happiness and specific amounts of it, but how do we measure happiness in real life? It isn’t something we perceptibly see in a computer game. In fact, it is more like a feeling and believe it or not, there are ways to measure it.
How To Measure Happiness?
As we look at the behavioral aspect, when we feel happy our behaviors change. We smile more and feel much more energetic. Hence we might be much more patient and helpful to others. However, any external factors can affect our happiness, which simultaneously affects our behaviors such as sun, exercising, eating, etc. Other than our behaviors, there are some biological ways to assess and reveal people's happiness levels in laboratories, but these are way too scientific. Reports, on the other hand, are another helpful source of information. In Particular, we can consider self-reports of people about their emotions and the feedback from other people. For example, as a parent, brief information about their child's emotional state to another person is valuable feedback. Of course, this data is mostly based on a person's emotional well-being, but it is also helping researchers carry out certain types of studies.
Attitudes Towards Money
For most people, the relationship with money, happiness, and living standards compose complicated relationships. It isn't like something that turns off when they achieve a certain amount of wage per year. They want more. Therefore, they try to find ways to earn more, usually by advancing in their career, which results in economic growth on a societal basis. On the other hand, things may lead in a different direction. More income means more flexibility on living expenses. However, with the pandemic, things started to change dimensions. The pandemic was actually the emergence of some crises. Some people lost their jobs or gave up what they love for the sake of themselves and their loved ones. Thus, the pandemic started a new pursuit to make money in challenging times. So happiness had to be put away from people in order to survive. For some people, money might be the indicator of success. In that case, if you are not earning much from your current job, you might think, "Am I not successful enough?" That creates a twisted sense of success and affects the lives of many. For some other people, however, only the job they are performing gives their lives a purpose that brings happiness simultaneously. As you can see, "money" can be determined in many ways depending on the person.
Killingworth's Study
In this post, I will also talk about a study by Matthew Killingworth. This research was conducted to measure people's well-being by collecting data from them on a daily basis. Actually, it has an extremely interesting content-collecting process. At some point, he links people's happiness with their income, as I mentioned before.
According to a paper from 2010 by Daniel Kahneman and Angus Deaton, well-being stops increasing after achieving a $75,000 annual salary. In his study, Killingworth declares that the possibility of increasing well-being stops after some time. This is since money no longer means something. However, he suggests well-being continues to increase with income as it can also give some satisfaction even just to see the ability to make "more" money.
Following on the study, Killingworth highlights that people earning more are happier. This derives from their high income and the possibility of doing things without doubt and worry. Who wouldn't be pleased by not caring about money while doing things they want to do? On the other side of the story, working excessively to earn more brings problems such as depression. People who link their self-worth with their income most definitely suffer from stress and, even more, depression. So, the key is trying to keep everything at proper and healthy levels. For example, the passion of earning more or dreaming about an alternative life that comes with more money.
EDUCATION WHAT IS DRAWDOWN | 3 Types Of Drawdown ExplainedHey traders ,
is it drawdown . The account drawdown is the highest observed loss from the highest value of the deposit to the lowest value of the deposit at a certain period of time . Imagine you started to trade with 10,000 $ account . At the end of the year , your account size reached 15,000 $ . 1 However , at some point through the year the deposit value dropped to 6,000 $ . It was the absolute minimum for the one - year period . At some point , your net loss was -4,000 $ or 40 % of your account balance . The account drawdown is 40 % .
! Knowing the account drawdown is very important for the risk assessment of the trading strategy . Usually , 50 % and bigger drawdown signifies an extremely high risk .
There are 3 types of drawdown to know
Current drawdown - a temporary drawdown associated with the negative total value of opened trading position ( s ) at present . Once you start trading with 10,000 $ deposit , you open several trading positions . Being opened , with the constant price movements , your potential gains fluctuates from positive to negative . For examples , with 3 active trades : EURUSD ( -500 $ at present ) ; GBPUSD ( + 200 $ at present ) ; GOLD ( -100 $ at present ) your current account drawdown is -400 $ or 4 % of your deposit . Fixed drawdown - the negative value of the closed trading position ( s ) at present for a certain period of time . While some of your trades remain active , some are already closed . Imagine the same deposit - 10,000 $ . On Monday you opened 6 trades , 2 still remain active and 4 are already closed . Your total loss from your closed trades is -500 $ . Your fixed Monday's drawdown is 5 % . Maximum Drawdown - the maximum observed loss from
Shooting Star Candlestick
What is the Shooting Star Pattern?
1. A shooting star is a type of candlestick pattern which forms when the price of the security opens, rises significantly, but then closes near the open price.
2. The distance between the highest price of the day and the opening price should be more than twice as large as the shooting star’s body.
What does Shooting Star tells you?
1. Shooting stars signals a potential downside reversal and is most effective when it forms after 2-3 consecutive rising candles having higher highs.
2. A shooting star opens and rises strongly during the trading session, showing the same buying pressure that is seen over the last trading sessions.
3. At the end of the trading session, the sellers push the price down near the open.
4. This shows that the buyers have lost control by the end of the day, and the sellers have taken over.
5. The long upper shadow indicates that the buyers are losing position as the price drops back to the open.
6. The candle after the shooting star gaps down and then moves lower on heavy volume.
7. This candle helps in confirming the price reversal and indicates that the price will continue to fall.
Trading Scenario
1. Trade Entry: Before you enter a shooting star trade, you should confirm that the prior trend is an active bullish trend.
2. Stop Loss: You should always try to use a stop-loss order when trading the shooting star candle pattern.
3. Taking Profits: The price target for this trade should be equal to the size of the shooting star pattern.
Limitations of Shooting Star
1. One should not only rely on a candle pattern like in a shooting star for making trading decisions.
2. This is why confirmation is required, one can confirm by the next candle or other technical analysis indicators.
3. One should also use stop losses when using candlesticks to control the losses.
4. A candlestick pattern is more significant when it occurs near an important level signaled by other forms of technical analysis.
BTCUSDT High Time Frame Oder Block In this section we will discuss what a price action order block is and how it is currently relevant to Bitcoin’s price action.
An Order Block is a trade location that has a cluster of price action, creating a liquidity pool. Once price action expands from the region, it automatically becomes support or resistance – hence a block,
This area once penetrated will act as a range, causing a period of price action oscillation. The Order Block can be dissected into three sections, the high (resistance), the low (support) and the middle (equilibrium). Whichever region price action breaks from will lead to a continuation or a reversal in the overall trend.
In essence, Bitcoin can remain trading in the Order Block before until decisive bottoming or continuation structures are developed.
Hope this educational peace helps!
Education: VolumeIntroduction
A financial transaction involving an exchange of goods results from a mutual agreement between buyer and seller. When referring to securities like stocks, an amount of goods exchanged between these two parties is called a volume. On a chart, the volume is often represented by green and red bars below the graph of a particular security. Information about the volume can give an analyst a better sense of market sentiment and help with the timing of trades.
Volume and liquidity
The amount of liquidity in a market translates to the ability to buy or sell a security. Money market instruments and marketable securities are considered to be liquid assets. However, market conditions do not always allow for enough liquidity, which is reflected in the volume. Sometimes, low liquidity may result in volatile price action, trend reversals, market gaps, etc. Generally, securities with high daily volume are more liquid than securities with low daily volume. Market holidays and shortened trading sessions have a tendency to be accompanied by low daily volume.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows Histogen Inc. on a daily time frame. Penny, micro-cap, and nano-cap stocks, which trade over-the-counter, are notorious for their low daily volumes.
The price-volume relationship
Analyzing the price-volume trend can reveal additional clues for the successful execution of a trade. Usually, an asset's simultaneous increase in volume and price is considered positive. Additionally, it often confirms a bullish thesis. However, a decrease in volume accompanying an ongoing rise in the price may give a technical analyst a hint that fewer buyers are willing to buy an asset. Therefore, a technical analyst should treat the decrease in volume and increase in price with some skepticism and pay close attention to it. The same rule applies when volume increases and price decreases simultaneously. Some analysts like to differentiate between significant and insignificant moves depending on the volume size. Price moves that occur on low volume tend to be considered less important than those on high volume. Typically, volume tends to increase as a trend develops. In an uptrend, a security tends to top when buyers are no longer willing to pay the asking price and start leaving a market. In a downtrend, a bottom tends to form when sellers lessen their selling pressure; or a substantial portion of new buyers enter a market. In some instances, quick and sharp growth in volume can signal the beginning of a new trend; or it may imply new traders have entered the market.
Illustration 1.02
The illustration shows the Covid 19 crash in 2020. Volume can be seen increasing in the early stage of the crash; it is accompanied by a fast and sharp drop in price. Eventually, volume can be seen decreasing towards pre-pandemic levels, reflecting weakening selling pressure.
Reporting
Each market exchange tracks and reports its volume data for a particular security. Volume is regularly updated throughout the trading session. However, the figure is only estimated as final figures are reported on the following day.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
The beginning of an investorHello everyone,
This is my first tutorial video, during this video you will find the following concepts:
- Primary trend
- Secondary trend
- Risk vs Reward
- Stop loss
- Volume
- Moving Averages
- Capital
20 minutes will never be enough to discuss all the basics related to trading and investing, however I hope that some of you are going to find this video useful for their personal growth.
Seb.
A Chat With Traders: Traders And Psychology With JohannaJohanna a 22 years old forex trader—with an enthralling background and compelling story. The Sudanese trader’s story starts from: Cameroon and Norway. Johanna was born in Cameroon but, bred in Norway.
According to her, “emotional intelligence is a crucial part of forex trading”. Albeit, traders don’t really talk about it. However, she prefers to trade in a converse way in relation to other retail traders. “I didn’t know I would be so affected by psychology in this game”, she mutter. In addition, “I’m a risk-taker. I love taking risks”.
Who is Johanna?
Originally from South Sudan, born in Cameroon but raised in Norway. I am currently both: a dental student and an upcoming day trader. Was first introduced back in 2018 through another female trader posting it on Instagram but—because of fear and lack of motivation, I did not take it seriously until late 2019.
Had jobs in different branches: from store employees, elder homes, and customer service. None of them have really fulfilled my perspective of living my life on my own terms.
So when I got introduced to trading, I knew it could give me the freedom I was looking for. What I didn’t first know, was the work, effort, and knowledge that was required. My first initial thought was to give someone else my own money to trade for me whilst learning, just for me to become a victim of scams on my earliest day.
Moving forward, after almost 10 months of trading live, I’m looking to get the right skill needed for me to handle the market in the long term but also educate and inspire more females to join the industry.
Woah, Johanna that’s some kick wass intro. I wouldn’t continue until this question is asked though. How long have you been trading? How did you learn forex and come to know it?
It has already been year on a live account. But, I was 5 months on demo before that.
Johanna’s On Trade And Psychology
The previous chat I had, inspired this particular question. Social media has allowed us as traders to have a wider footprint outside of the forex industry, what do you think your impact is in the industry?
The industry is heavily male-dominated and I really want females to contribute and represent another side. I’m also big on learning the right skills; from the right people so you don’t get scammed easily in this industry.
That’s you speaking from experience there. Right? Do you have a special way you trade this particular pair? If yes, can you share a tip for that pair?
My approach is a bit different: as I look to trade the strongest and the weakest pairs. I will therefore look for these pairs during my market preparation—this will also help me to understand the directional bias for further analysis.
Hey, Johanna—are you a technical or fundamental fan?
Technical and fundamental. I personally feel like both are important to have an overall look of the market and why things happen the way it does.
Without a doubt. Loving the way you’re handling this questions. What is your go-to strategy? I would also love that you explain: why that is your go-to. Do you have a major reason why you chose that strategy and how it has helped in improving your trading.
I like trading the opposite of what retail traders generally do, and as an Intraday/Swing trader, I prefer to look out for major liquidity grabs and trade from those areas.
“The opposite”. How can you tell—Just a curious cat here. By the way, Who/what inspired you to start trading? If you have a mentor, what’s their name and what about that individual inspired you?
Haha. The freedom to be able to trade from wherever and whenever I want is—definitely the inspiration. Those who inspired me are: Melisa Hilma, Cue banks, Forex with ally, and the Gold father
It’s research time for me—I guess. However, still on psychology, What keeps you sane? Because I won’t lie—trading can stress you out and some even get depressed. So how do you overcome this?
Hmm. I trade with an amount that doesn’t affect me, adjust my risk management to a level where I feel comfortable trading, and ready psychology books both for trading and personal development.
Okay, that works. Especially the reading part. I know this particular question may sound weird. The reason asked is: as humans we have the whole “act now, think later” thingy going on even when it’s not the right thing to do. So, do you have a trading “guilty pleasure”? If “yes” what is it and how do you handle it when it happens?
Made this mistake a lot in the beginning. Albeit, I’ve tried to work on being very strict and journal every time—I might do this mistake to then go over it during the weekend. If greediness occurs, I really need to take a step back and look at my plan, checklist, and rules before taking a trade.
Someone’s disciplined. Tell me—what are the three traits you have that keeps you successful? And what three traits do you hope to have in trading that would make you a consistent trader?
A big risk taker, I love taking risks. Being consistent and systematic as a person, also helps me become a better trader and the appetite to always learn something new! As a trader you meet so many challenges, you can never be bored!
Truth to that. It’s amazing the discoveries one can get from just trading. Speaking on bore-dom—When you’re not trading, what are you doing?
I study, read and I like meeting friends. In addition, the Corona virus has also made me start watching some new tv shows. I love to bing watch them on: Netflix and HBO.
Yeah being hooked on some shows as well. Tell me about a time you disagreed with a decision. A time you didn’t follow your trading plan. What did you do?
There was this one time where I did something. Though, I do not recommend it. Took a trade into a news event. That’s personally against my rules. I still did it and it went away for a while before it reversed and hit my stop loss. The worst part was: I was trading Nasdaq100 (indices) that moves very fast and can easily blow up your account with one bad move.
Eish! I can definitely relate. Nasdaq’s my field. How do you handle pressure, impatience, fear, doubt and greed in forex?
You know what, I don’t work well under pressure—so, I can’t be dealing with anything that might pressure me to do something outside my plan. I’m actually a very patient person and I haven’t really rushed in the market. Things take time and I accept it. I might doubt myself sometimes but I keep thinking that others have done the same but they are now in better situations. Same thing with greed. Greed will test you in the market but, taking control of that earlier in the trade will help you a lot. I take what I can from the market and I’m happy with that.
Well said. Johanna. Let’s visualize now. So what would you want your forex dream to be like (in details).
Too many dreams. My forex dream is just one of many things I need to accomplish. Being financially stable from forex is the first step, but investing in other assets and businesses is as important as my drive to learn forex.
Investing, compounding. A great dream. Who is one person/academy you think Neophyte or everyone should follow and why?
Really look up to Melisa Hilmi, the first person who introduced me to forex. She has a genuine drive for the market and has an amazing course from beginner stage to advanced. Also, she has an amazing track record, history and I appreciate people who do their own thing.
Haven’t really heard of her. Another assignment for me. What are you biggest strengths in forex and What’s one thing you think you are very good at in forex?
I’m a big risk-taker. This makes me less emotional when I trade: as I’m not attached to money—the same way as many might be in the beginning.
“Big risk-taker” That means you probably won’t relate to this question—But, Have you ever tried quitting? If yes, what did you do about it?
Yes. I took 2 months break after I got scammed and was really depressed. I got back up knowing that it was just a mistake. Trading is still something I should be able to try out but by myself.
Ouch. So sorry about that. By the way, speaking on losses—What was your greatest loss, how much was it?
My greatest loss so far is: $6000 in 2 days.
That’s crazy. What motivates you?
Being able to change how I and my family live. My younger siblings motivate me—even more. I want to give them much more than what I got when I was younger.
Aww. That’s so sweet. In trading, how do you manage a trade when in it?
While the trade is running, I make sure I have alerts on areas of key levels. I might check it one time every hour and might adjust my stop loss to make the trade risk-free.
I’m curious now. What’s your trading plan? And what is your go-to assess class (what pair(s) would you consider are your favorites) and why do you prefer these pairs?
I start off by looking at major news for the day/week and look out for events that might affect my trades. Most of my market preparation for the week happens during the weekend and I will focus on only executing my trades after that. I look for high probability trades and I have a checklist I mark off before, during, and after the trade. They include: my entry rules, exit rules, risk management strategy, and how I will manage my trade while it’s running. My favorite pairs are: GBP and NZD pairs.
Johanna speak on the Industry and It’s Newbies.
Hope to see your watchlist someday. I always ask this particular question. What’s your take on Neophytes that want to learn forex? Do you prefer they paid for the knowledge or stick with YouTube videos and free materials.
Spent a lot of time on YouTube and it helped me but—you should also take a course: as the information can be overloaded with free materials.
Yeah. Lots of free courses everywhere. Learning everything can be quite exhausting. This may sound “cliché” but why forex? What is your major reason for choosing forex?
Not funny but, I was first scammed in the crypto industry—I backed off from that. Then forex seemed like a reasonable market for me as it involved more than just studying currencies.
Lot of scamming on your part. Moving forward. We all talk about trading psychology, what can you say about that?
Didn’t know I would be so affected by psychology in this game. Pay attention to every move that affects your mindset and work hard on improving it.
Needed to hear that from you. Because, I think psychology is one of the most important—if not the most important part of trading. So, that’s why I’m laying emphasis on it. What are your trading rituals and how has it helped your trading?
When looking for high probability trades, I only take trades that matter hence—why I don’t need to take many trades every week. I stay out of bad markets and back-test my weekly losses.
Back-testing, important. What are your trading aspirations? I know many trade for “financial freedom” but what happens when that’s achieved? What do you plan on doing with trading?
Plan on making an educational space. Not just within trading, but also in finance. There are many opportunities out there: to better yourself financially. However, I see many people don’t take that chance due to: either lack of experience but also fear of losing money. I want to motivate more people to go for what they want.
Good-luck on these aspirations Johanna. It’s a great idea. What would say is your “win-rate” and what really drives results in your trading?
I would say I have a win rate of 68-72%. My results are driven by hours of back-testing different pairs and their movement.
Not bad really. Did you have a job though. If yes, What was your salary in your last job before forex? Was leaving it for forex worth it and why?
$1300-1700 a month. Definitely worth it. Not looking to go back to a corporate job anytime soon.
Haha. Forex stole you away. Tell me how you think other people would describe you. What do you want to be remembered for in the industry?
Very social and outgoing. I want to be known for someone introducing the market in a different way by: showing them both obstacles and good days. There’re too much fake lifestyle on social media.
Well, most are great marketers. Others, for social status. Do you keep a journal? If yes, what does it consist of?
Yes, I do. I have different sections where I journal my market, pips achievements, losses & wins, my risk percentage, and personal processed thoughts I had during the trade.
Nice. I’m really grateful for your time. Although, I won’t be leaving till you tell me about the toughest decision you had to make in the last six months. Was it a trading decision? If yes, tell me how you handled the situation.
No worries. Quitting my last job. It was a hard decision but I knew it was the right thing for me not only to pursue my trading dream but—also be able to focus on things that make me happy. I don’t regret it at all.
That’s tough. How would you describe your ideal work environment?
My ideal work environment is essentially an office filled with other female traders working to help and educate other upcoming traders like myself on their journey.
Yup. You’ve definitely got a great belief system. I’ll be looking forward to this Ma’am. You know we have the Neophytes now in the industry. In fact, more Neophytes are trooping in. What’s your advice to them and what would you recommend they start with?
Simple. Throw away the whole “I’m going to become rich in a few weeks”. Focusing on the money aspect will really turn your motivation off in the beginning as: you don’t even have the skill set. Focus on the skillset, and the money will come along.
Process first, then outcome. You couldn’t have said it better. What would you consider to be your biggest forex achievement? Tell me about a forex accomplishment you are most proud of.
When I was profitable enough to quit my job. It takes time, and I’m nowhere near where I want to be but—I have at least come a long way.
Positivity goes a long way. Do you have weaknesses—What are your forex weaknesses? How do you plan on going about them? Have you succeeded in doing that?
Social media can be a very scary place and as an upcoming trader, you will encounter a lot of different things. Comparing myself to other traders is a weakness of mine, but I keep reminding myself that their journey is different from mine and we all have our own path. I don’t really look at other traders that much anymore and just focus on myself and my own journey.
The media, if used wrongly is a deadly disease. Proprietary firms are in existence now. Do you trade for any proprietary firm? If yes, which one and how is it going?
No, not yet but I’m looking to take the FTMO when I’m ready.
Finally, before I leave you Johanna. How long do you plan on trading forex and Where do you see yourself in five years with forex?
Plan to stick to my written rules and risk management. I also look up everything that I don’t understand and learn from it. Progress is my everyday mission.
A Traders Psych Evaluation
1. Asides money, why else do you trade?
2. When you’re not trading, what do you do with your free time?
3. If you bagged a million dollars in trading today… what’s your first step?
4. Your favorite trading book—if any?
5. Who do you admire most in trading?
6. What are you most afraid of in trading?
7. If you could change everything about your trading career—what would it be and why?
8. What subject in school made the most impact in you?
9. If you died today, what do you wish to be remembered for?
10. Are you addicted to trading?
11. What’s the most defining moment of your trading career?
12. Your dream destination?
13. Your favorite trading memory?
14. What do you feel most proud of?
15. Who introduced you to trading?
16. What’s your worst/best childhood memory?
17. If you had a chance to do-over in life… what would you do differently?
18. What’s your strongest quality?
19. Most embarrassing thing you’ve done in trading?
20. What’s a skill in trading you wish to learn and why?