AUDCHF - EDUCATION - 29. JUNE. 2019Welcome to DACapitalTrading, We provide any kind of Technical and Fundamental Analysis
for Forex and Crypto-Currency Markets every day!
-
1 HOUR
Sideways moving market with a lot of pullbacks.
4 HOUR
Bullish market found its resistance probably.
DAILY
Very bearish market in a small correction now, great short entries for sure!
OVERALL
I think we will see a bullish market open and price movement above previous
H4 Highs and resistance area for a last pin to the upside before heading back
down into our average price movement!
Good luck
-
Leave us a comment or like to keep our content for free and alive.
Have a great week everyone!
ALAN
Trade
GBPAUD - EDUCATION - 23. JUNE. 2019Welcome to DACapitalTrading, We provide any kind of Technical and Fundamental Analysis
for Forex and Crypto-Currency Markets every day!
-
1 HOUR
Very bullish price action..
4 HOUR
Price forming several HH and HL indicating a bullish pressure pattern.
DAILY
Sideways waving market found resistance now and is slowing down.
OVERALL
Price action is slowing down and found resistance, expecting a last push to the upside forming new H4 Highs
before heading back down to average price movement and psychological support level.
Will update everyone on monday!
Good luck
-
Leave us a comment or like to keep our content for free and alive.
Have a great week everyone!
ALAN
Every excess detected at resistance, 100% sure sell.
1) Very tight channel detect here with 3 excess and currently forming 4rd an excess. I prefer to sell when price with excess at a value high.
2) The tail should be in excess is more accurate.
--> First condition meet here, short at a higher price will be great. Each trade must have a protective stop, therefore keep your stop above resistance.
---> Wait for the 2nd condition to meet and enjoy 99% accurate trade.
Hit LIKE button if you want to alert REAL-TIME .
It is not gambling if you know what you’re doing. It is gambling if you’re just throwing money into a deal and praying. - by Kinnari Prajapati
US Stock Markets: And what's Mueller got to do with you?!This screencast is speculative - and I invite the full brain power of Tradingview's community to consider the variables which might affect the US Stock Markets around this time. Let's do this together.
The stock market has retreated, probably due to nerves about the Mueller report - among several other things. If the report contains nothing on which Trump is impeachable then, I'm expecting a pump north.
Mueller's hit list so far has been :
1. PAUL MANAFORT
2. RICK GATES
3. MICHAEL COHEN
4. MICHAEL FLYNN
5. GEORGE PAPADOPOULOS
6. ALEX VAN DER ZWAAN
7. RICHARD PINEDO
(Names are in all caps only due to copy and pasting. Names and convictions are all in the public domain, so I'm not defaming anybody.)
Some may think that with so much dirt around it's unlikely that Trump will come out of this clean. Hey, this bull market is about Trump - let's not debate that. If Trump goes down the markets go down like lead balloons. Alternatively, if Trump comes out clean enough, expect bullish moves which may then be limited by other factors.
Separate to Mueller's investigation and report, there are 16 other investigations into Trump. If just one sticks, there could be catastrophic collapse of the American markets - with shock waves globally, hitting Forex as well.
We have other variables to consider :
1. The Fed 'money printing' press going to be turned up.
2. Bleaker than expected economic projections by the Fed and Draghi.
3. Expected weaker US Dollar - creating bullish pressure in the long term.
4. Flattening or inverted yield curves
5. Uncertainty's and delays on deals with China.
6. Potential Brexit shock waves.
7. Germany struggling against recession.
8. 'Housing' market bubbles in several countries including the US, in trouble.
9. US and Global debt totally out of control.
10 etc. .. and much more.
Sorry - I don't know what's gonna happen. I do not give tips on entry positions.
Nailed it! Take the money and run approach to Current Crypto I've seen this happening a lot lately (past few weeks). There is good range on some of these wicks on the short term time frames!
Its only about 2 percent but these are easy if you are watching. I simply set a buy 1 historical resistance line under the current historical resistance. THEN SET AN ALERT at your buy price.
If the price drifts down pull your order. But if you hear your alert randomly, go sell.
Quick 2%. DO NOT let these positions ride. Sell immediately.
This is a very simple strategy to execute if you have quick access to this site and your exchange. You can even set an alert with a different sound to remind you to pull your order because the price is drifting.
PLEASE LIKE AND SUBSCRIBE IF YOU WANT MORE LIKE THIS.
PS: I am not a licensed adviser. ALL my posts are simply my opinion and game plans.
Using A Manual Stop Loss For Beginners @alanmasters (Learning)Hello my dear supporter, Alan Masters here and I want to share a few details about stop losses, the different types and how to better interpret them to maximize potential profits and reduce potential losses when trading with me.
Manual Stop Losses
Right now we are using what I call a "manual stop loss" and I will explain to you why.
Trading cryptocurrency isn't that easy, conventional markets are way easier to trade. Here the cycles are faster and the bots are more advanced, there are many ways that beginners can get lost in the simple actions that are: buy, sell and hold.
The purpose of a stop loss is to close a trade if the trend changes or is certain to change. Meaning, if we are aiming for a target to the upside and the price of an altcoin starts to go down, we close our trade when we confirm that the price will continue falling rather than bounce and go up. This confirmation normally happens where we analysts place our stop loss.
Now, it happens that the same place where a change of trend can be confirmed is also where support is found, in the example above. So imagine the price of the altcoin you are trading quickly going down and hitting support. A conventional stop loss would get activated and you lose your money, but with a manual stop loss, you don't close the trade unless the candle closes below the stop loss price. So in the case that the price is hit but quickly bounces, then there is no need to close the trade as the uptrend will be resumed.
I will share some charts to make it easier to understand why we use a manual stop loss.
First example:
Imagine your stop loss is set at $3579. BTCUSD goes down and hits this price, your trade is stopped and you lose money, but the price quickly bounces up.
With the manual stop loss, you would have to have the candle close below $3579, meaning at least $3578. And the candle on the chart above would look completely red/yellow (negative).
This manual stop loss requires more work as it needs to be checked manually, but this is something necessary when trading crypto as the markets are very volatile.
Other types of stop loss
The basic stop loss is the one where your trade gets closed as soon as a certain price level is hit. If you use this type of stop loss when trading cryptocurrency, I would suggest placing the stop loss at least 5-8% below the actual support.
One final strategy to take your stop loss effort even further, more advanced, is the full candle close below support.
This is a method that I highly recommend as well. For some people it isn't enough to close below support to confirm the trend change, they expect to see a full candle close below support before closing their trades. Taking it even further, you can look for big volume and any type of bearish candlestick or candlestick pattern for additional confirmation.
Piece of advice
We use a stop loss in order to avoid losing money in the case our trade goes wrong. The stop loss is not meant to indicate if the trade is active or not, or if I got it right or wrong... That's not the purpose, we are here to make money.
If you are trading and learning you can always adapt to the moment and make your own decisions based on what you see and not what is written. For example, if a stop loss is hit by 3 satoshis or few cents (in USD) but you notice that the price will move back up, you can keep your trade.
The purpose of the stop loss is to cut your loses but not to close a valid trade.
So take into consideration the market, the charts, signals and everything that is going on. You can also contact me and send me the PAIR you are looking at and I will be happy to help.
For beginners, you can simply follow our trade instructions and start creating your own strategy as you get used to these markets.
Thanks a lot for reading.
Namaste.
How To Calculate Pip Value, Risk & Trade Size TutorialHey Traders, in this idea we are going to break down step by step, how a professional trader calculates pip value, risk and trade size. The focus of this lesson is aimed towards helping you get an idea of how you can create your own risk management plan in order to remain consistently profitable over a long period of time. You can have the best strategy in the world and still lose consistently without a solid risk management plan. In fact, in my personal experience with teaching traders, I have found that many traders who do not succeed are actually using a profitable strategy! These traders would have made money if they followed their risk management rules but that tends to go out the window when we do not see how the numbers work out for ourselves (among many other reason). It is important that you use these calculations that I have broken down on these charts over and over again until it makes perfect sense to you and then apply them to your own trading. If you do nothing else at least make sure the numbers work for you! I hope this short tutorial helps you get started on creating your own risk management plan and please be sure to comment below with any questions you may have. If you like this tutorial please give this lesson a thumbs up and I will cover more on this topic In a future lesson.
Thanks Traders, If you would like access to a spreadsheet that automatically calculates all of this for you, please request one using the link below and I will send you my personal spreadsheet for free.
goo.gl
Also if you have not done so please follow me at TradersNsights Facebook page as I plan to start posting daily market updates and predictions over there that may be helpful to you.
www.facebook.com
BTCUSD Trading strategy and Trading tacticsThe trading strategy is a common vision of how, by means of which methods, using what tools and in what markets the trader is planning to earn money for a long time.
In our case, since we are going to trade on the crypto-currency market, it is worth determining whether we will trade the most liquid coins using the marginal leverage, or it will be trading in cash. Maybe it will be an investment in top projects, which are in the limelight; maybe, it could be an investment in low-liquid projects that are far from the top on coinmarketcap, but they can give the X-s in the future. Accordingly, it is necessary to choose a trading platform for these purposes. For margin trading I recommend Bitfin, I do not recommend Bitmex. For trading top coins, Bitfin or Binance, will suit your capital. For trading potential projects - binance, cucoin, bitrex.
Further it is necessary to decide what type of trading you are interested in depending on the time. This will be a day trading where the trader searches for trading opportunities throughout the day, constantly monitoring the market, or swing trading (middle term trading), when the trader determines the direction of the market, takes a position and holds it until the prerequisites for a reversal of the trend appear. Alternatively, this is a long-term investment, when the trader accumulates a position, having a firm belief in the direction of the main long-term trend.
Regarding methods and tools for analysis: we are going to study TA, respectively, this is the method that is suitable for us. Each trader will be able to determine for himself a set of tools for technical analysis with time and practice. Someone is more inclined to use patterns and levels, someone is an “indicator”, and someone likes to use volumetric analysis. My opinion is the following: you need to have a certain "crown", but use all available TA tools for additional help in the analysis.
Trading tactics is a strict set of rules for using methods and tools for technical analysis, the risk / capital management rules to achieve strategic goals.
For example, while choosing the liquid assets trading, these rules should encompass:
•
Clear rules for entering the position: the reason, the volume of the transaction, case scenario, which will increase the already open position.
• Clear exit rules: predefined TPs and SLs, coordinated with the development of cases, which will allow changing the initial settings of target levels, the rules for transferring SLs in the black and further.
• Calculated, strictly defined risk / capital management rules.
• Disciplinary tasks
Risk and capital management.
Strict control over losses is probably the most important prerequisite for successful trading. There is a classic rule: eliminate the loss-making positions as quickly as possible, keep the profitable positions as long as possible.
2] How to use Traders Dynamic Index and Complementary OverlayWe here learn to observe the higher time frame 360, and analyse 1D that RSIPL are crossed down parallel. So lower than daily time frame= 540, 360 allows for trend entry at a 360 RSIPL and 'TSL initial cross down for max profit.
On 180 as on 360 allowed for entry using the RSIPL/TSL crosses down. Also observing Phaser very near price as it 'pushed' priced down until price could breakout Phaser which had much importance.
Price breakout of black Midline meant clear reversal and price retraced to it for support with target being HighPhaser or Fibonacci retracement tool for extension target. Entry for this retracement was possible by means of the countertrendline cross.
__________
Promoting free and highly useful Indicators:
KK_Traders Dynamic Index_Bar Highlighting
Traders Dynamic Index Overlay
"Price Action Channel Master by JustUncleL Restored"
What makes a divergence.To find a divergence you have to take in account for the movement at each point in time. For example, make sure your divergences include a contiguous downtrend or uptrend or else they are invalid. Furthermore, don't build opinions over a single timeframe or indicator: always be sure to use multiple. Another good tactic is to discuss with people who might have separate--but valuable--viewpoints.
Part 3 - The Markets.. Know what market you are trading in!!What is trend?
Trend is the direction in which the market moves. An upward trend consist out of higher highs and an downward trend with lower lows.
* Upward trend
* Downward trend
This is called the sideway market, which also is called trading range:
This is an neutral trinagle, where we see lower highs and higher lows. At this markets it is better to wait what the market will do. Every time the price drop, buyers are gettin earlier in, but the sellers are also selling earlier.
Upward Triangle, There are more buyers joining the market.
This one is the downward market. The lower lows are staying equal, the highs are gettin lower. At this time people are waiting for the right time to buy.
We see here a false move. When u think the market will turn on, it makes a false move and getting lower.
This one is called the broadening market. The highs will become higher and the lows lower. A broadening market says that there is a lot of uncertainity. This is an market with high risks. This will be seen a lot at the ending of upward markets.
Trade Filosofy - BE A WHALE´S PARASITEHow to earn money or not lose it being a whale parasite. Philosophy
This is not a technical analysis. I leave that to users with more skill than me. I am a follower of great cartoonists of charts and I take advantage of it.
I want to share with you a philosophy to be able to trade in BTC and in the other cryptocurrencies.
First of all we must know that in the market decriptomonedas NO DEMOCRACY EXISTS. I repeat, there is no democracy.
The strength, the muscle that an investment fund can have is millions of times stronger than what a small investor can have. Millions! The strength of an investment fund is hundreds / thousands of times stronger than that of a group of small investors.
That's why we call the investment group: Whales and small investors we call them fish.
Whales and fish feed in the same way. They buy cheap and sell expensive.
So, why does democracy not exist? Because the whale feeds on small fish ..
I'll explain how the whale eats:
For example, in a bear market trend there is what the analyst calls support levels (EMA50, 100, 200, historical carrying levels, etc). In these levels, many purchase orders of small investors (small fish) are accumulated. Every small investor who buys BTC raises the price a little. Then another fish comes and buys more BTC and raises the price a little more. Then the whale comes and starts to sell (bought cheap and sells expensive because it is the fish that made the price rise at that level). When the whale sells the price goes down again. If at this level new fish are still entering, the whale will let them buy and the price will rise again. The whale will sell hard again and the price will go down. It is a feeding cycle.
After doing this several times and so many new fish do not enter, then the whale decides to move strongly to a lower and attractive level to catch new fish (for example it goes from 9500K to 8800K). At that low level, the whale does the same thing again. For example, it breaks down from 9500 to 8800K. Small fish raise the price to 8950 and the whale puts it back to 8800 + or - selling BTC.
Are you going to catch it ?????
And this happens in all levels of support, in all.
You wonder why the fish are so stupid that they let the whale eat them? Because the fish does not know that the whale exists.
a) He believes that all fish are the same.
b) Because the fish usually moves by impulses such as fear, anxiety, etc. The fish sees the tree but does not see the forest. In addition, novice fish are arriving all the time and they have no idea that they are going to eat them.
All this said, what can we do then?
As small investors we have 2 options: A) Being a fish and letting them eat us or B) Being a "parasite" of the whale and feeding on it !!
You will have seen that the real whales have their bodies full of external parasites. That is what I choose to be. A whale parasite that moves with her. I let the whale feed on fish but I never let go of it because the whale will eat me too.
So far we agree? We want to be a whale parasite!
Mistakes -- Lets make them -- Pencils Out!Lets get our pencils out. Lets do some drawing, lets muck up a chart and lets see what we can learn from it. What is a fib arc? How do I draw them? Why do I draw them?
How should you draw your chart? ... Do you have any ideas? ... What if you don't have any ideas, and you don't know what to do?
...Calm down... pull your pencils out. Its time to start learning, and teaching...ourselves!
How much can you make in 5 years? Money makes money . It's an age-old saying, probably because it's generally true.
But starting out as a retail trader can be daunting and at times, frustrating. It takes time to build up a sizable account big enough to allow us to take the leap from trading part time, to full time trading.
Something that has kept me motivated over the years is an excel spreadsheet a friend of mine made. It demonstrates how consistent monthly returns can lead from a small and humble account balance, to a huge one. Thanks to the compounding effect.
Assuming you don't make any withdrawals, let's see where consistent, conservative trading over 5 years could get you.
SCENARIO 1: SHRIMP
Starting balance: $1,000
You've traded demo for a while, you've developed a winning formula, and you're ready to put your money where your mouth is.
Monthly contributions: $100
A hundred bucks is all you can afford at the moment, after bills and overheads
Monthly returns: 8%
By being selective in your trades and risking between 1-2% per trade, your conservative approach has allowed you to be consistent so far
Year 1:
Month 3: $1,484.35
Month 6: $2,220.47
Month 9: $3,147.76
Month 12: $4,315.88
Year 2:
Month 15: $5,787.38
Month 18: $7,641.04
Month 21: $9,976.13
Month 24: $12,917.66
Year 3:
Month 27: $16,623.14
Month 30: $21,290.98
Month 33: $27,171.11
Month 36: $34,578.39
Year 4:
Month 39: $43,909.42
Month 42: $55,663.83
Month 45: $70,471.01
Month 48: $89,123.79
Year 5:
Month 51: $112,620.92
Month 54: $142,220.53
Month 57: $179,507.52
Month 60: $226,478.39
Behold! The humble $1000 has been transformed into more than 200k. That's just 4 winning trades a month at 2% per trade.
SCENARIO 2: FISH
Starting balance: $10,000
So you've got a good chunk of savings lying around and you're ready to get serious with your trading.
Monthly contributions: $0
You've stumped up all of your available spare resources into your trading account and you want to enjoy spending any surplus money from your other income streams. Fair enough.
Monthly returns: 8%
By being selective in your trades and risking between 1-2% per trade, your conservative approach has allowed you to be consistent so far
Year 1:
Month 3: $12,597.12
Month 6: $15,868.74
Month 9: $19,990.05
Month 12: $25,181.70
Year 2:
Month 15: $31,721.69
Month 18: $39,960.19
Month 21: $50,338.34
Month 24: $63,411.81
Year 3:
Month 27: $79,880.61
Month 30: $100,626.57
Month 33: $126,760.50
Month 36: $159,681.72
Year 4:
Month 39: $201,152.98
Month 42: $253,394.82
Month 45: $319,204.49
Month 48: $402,105.73
Year 5:
Month 51: $506,537.42
Month 54: $638,091.26
Month 57: $803,811.22
Month 60: $1,012,570.64
Now it's unlikely that in this situation, you'll be trading pip sizes more than what would bank you 100k in 3 months, but the point is that you can trade conservatively and get to a point where you're earning enough to live like a king in just a few years.
Happy trading everyone!
Hope this has helped to motivate you and think about trading more conservatively to preserve your capital and think about your long term future.
AvidTrader
P.S. If anyone would like the real spreadsheet, PM me.
Why bad psychology might be stopping you from succeedingYou are a Human. This is good.
You are capable of making complex decisions. You can identify patterns. You can enter excellent trades.
This is also bad. Between your ears is a narcotics factory that will put Heisenberg's mobile meth lab to shame.
You've entered a trade. This is it. The BIG one. A one-way ticket to infinite infinity pools.
Adrenaline dilates your pupils and switches off your digestive system. Suddenly you're not hungry anymore. Endorphins , stronger than morphine, are spewed out of the pituitary gland. Dopamine released from the middle of your brain means you can no longer hold in your excitement. This trade's a winner! Anandoline kicks in, you're hungry again. There's some the leftover beef bourguigion in the fridge. Who needs speed when you've got PEA ? Shit, the trade's gone sour! Suddenly you're anxious. It must be the serotonin .
Being Human is something we can't get away from.
But we can learn to master our mind.
A recent study by DailyFX analyzed 43 million real trades to measure trader performance. They found that across 15 most traded currency pairs, the majority of trades were successful .
Yet traders are still losing.
Why? They lose more money on their losing trades than they make on their winning trades.
So if you're reading this and it applies to you, you're probably very good at identifying profitable trading opportunities. Over 50% of your trades may well be profitable. Because you're Human and you're awesome.
So how can we be more profitable?
If your trading strategy has a high strike rate, then a low risk-reward ratio will suit - but you have to let the trades play out. If you don't do this, it will ruin your trading edge. If you fall into this category, then a 1:1 or 1:2 trade will suit you fine. remember to give the trade enough room to breath. I've seen traders make amazing calls, yet they place a stop loss 10-20 pips away from their entry. This is simply not enough.
If you're not so confident with your trading strategy and you've not been consistently making winning calls, you first might want to learn from people that know more than you. Knowledge is power! The second thing you might want to do is have a slightly higher risk-reward ratio (1:2 or 1:3, even 1:4). If you fall into this category, try identifying excellent setups on the Daily or even Weekly charts. Trading on the hourly charts and expecting 1:4 trades to come in every time simply won't work.
Set your stop and take, and leave it alone.
Close your laptop and enjoy a caipirinha by the pool.
Happy trading everyone,
AvidTrader
Correlation Trading - How to Trade Forex With Little to No Risk!Tonight we did a live stream on YouTube offering an in-depth explanation of correlation trading. You can watch the stream back in its entirety here www.youtube.com
Below will be a written explanation of correlation trading utilizing the AUDJPY vs. NZDJPY as the example:
Correlation trading is an amazing way to add diversification to your trading portfolio and in your trade plan. You can continue your trading plan and strategy but take advantage of correlation trading opportunities as they arise to increase your ability to profit from the forex market. In correlation trading the objective is to find currency pairs that are highly correlated, meaning that when one pair moves in any given direction the other pair also moves in that same direction. A great example of this would be the AUDJPY vs. the NZDJPY. Over the past year the correlation between the two pairs has been very positive, 92% of the time over the past year the two pairs have been moving in sync with one another. This correlation can be confirmed by using the Oanda correlation chart:
Once you have confirmed that you are looking at two pairs that are highly correlated to one another, you will want to then look into the charts and compare the price action over the past year. TradingView makes this very convenient with the ability to overlay charts. When we overlay the NZDJPY chart on the AUDJPY chart (candlesticks=AUDJPY, bars=NZDJPY) we can clearly see the times of the year when the two pairs were moving very much in sync and the times where the correlation cracked a bit and the two pairs moved oddly in opposing directions.
It is during these times when the correlation cracks that provides us with the immensely profitable and essentially risk free trading opportunities. If you notice on the chart throughout the past year you will see highlighted in yellow boxes all of the times when the correlation has cracked and a gap has formed. We can look at these moments and estimate the average maximum gap in correlation and use this information to gauge when to take a correlation trade on this pair.
You will notice every time the correlation has cracked and a gap in price action has formed, price inevitably moved back in correlation narrowing and even closing the gap You will also notice if you look back at the widest portion of the gap from every time there was a crack in correlation that it has been roughly anywhere between 400-500 pips . If we look at the second to most recent gap in correlation that we have labeled on the chart you will notice that at its widest point the gap in price was roughly 600 pips; the high being at 85.500 and the low being at 80.700. If we were watching this occur as it was happening and we noticed the gap in correlation approaching 400 pips and then 500 pips and then 600 pips, forming the widest gap in correlation all year, we could then look to take a correlation trade between these pairs.
In this given example around 3/11/16 we would look to take equal positions of long NZDJPY and short AUDJPY banking on the fact that the gap in correlation should statistically, with 92% likelihood, narrow and potentially even close completely so that the two pairs are moving back in correlation with one another. You will see that if we did this we covered on 3/30/16 we would have netted ourselves a fruitful profit of 300 pips. Our short position in AUDJPY would have been down about 20 pips or so but our long in NZDJPY would have been up about 340 pips.
This profit came with little to no direction risk because as one position goes against you the other statistically should go in your favor and if you are not netting a profit at any given moment your loss should be simnifically reduced as compared to what it would be if you were only holding the losing position.