Educational Post about Defining zones : Read the CaptionIf you have been led to believe that the prices move depending on the number of buyers and the number of sellers; if the number of buyers is greater than the number of sellers, prices go up, & if the number of sellers is greater than the number of buyers, prices go down. Then you would be wrong...
The number of sellers or buyers is not what moves the price. What if one seller is doing all the selling to thousands of buyers? The price will go down. The answer to our question is that it is the degree of aggression of the buyers or the sellers and the volume of order-flow they submit is what moves the price. That's what creates the imbalance between buyers and sellers. Your goal as a trader is not to try to catch tops and bottoms that would be absolutely crazy. Your goal as a trader is to find suboptimal zones or in other word good deals.
What is a Optimal Zone?
A zone in which price has already a trend defined by a rally or drop. Most of the time it is a breakout and pullback structure close to a very strong supply and demand level. Most important is that:
Buy optimal zones are close to a macro buy zone In other words price is cheap = good deal to buy.
Sell optimal zones are close to a macro sell zone. In other words price is expensive= good deal to sell.
What is a Sub-optimal Zone?
Buy sub-optimal zones are close to a macro sell zone In other words price is expensive = bad deal to buy.
Sell sub-optimal zones are close to a macro buy zone. In other words price is cheap= bad deal to sell.
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Trading Psychology
Don’t bite the bait. Time is money. This is a case of comparative advantage. Which means the less time it takes the coin to produce oil or energy, maybe even transactions. All will go down and then pop back up, much like a sinking ship.
Within the next 5 hours, an entry point will be present. It’s time to glean for Q2, because after this the prices will hit an all time high and then go back down until July. A lot will assume now is too soon, but yesterdays price isn’t todays price.
However, the cup and handle has presented its self. Now the next sign of equilibrium the price will make will be like a Nike check. Or a Wolfe wave. The eagle has left the nest.
2. API CRUDE OIL U.S.: anything under 5 is a sink. Forecast is in the -1.0 range.
TOTAL VEHICLE CAR SALES: Elon and Twitter
Don’t hire the bait just yet.
Four trading fears you will have to overcome 😱The stats for retail traders are not pretty.
It's no secret around 80% of all retails traders lose money.
The reason most fail is the four fears not being overcome.
Fear of being wrong!
We are emotional creatures and lets be honest none of us like being wrong.
This trait shows in some more than others but there is no place in trading for this trait.
It's impossible to 100% right all the time it's not even possible being 90% or 80% right all the time.
Once the reality sets in your not going to be right all the time we then as traders have fear of being wrong when seeking our trades or strategies.
Fear of losing money
We all suffer this fear at some point.
What we need to understand is all accounts suffer periods of drawdown.
I firmly believe the 80% of all retail traders stat is so high due to people losing money and quitting.
The reason money is lost is due to poor strategy or no strategy.
Once in a whole the fear of losing more will push people away from trading.
Fear of missing out
It's probably the fear of missing out that led you here in the first place.
You see all the lambo's on social media and the life style and fear of missing out is already in play.
Then comes seeing what everyone else has profit wise.
Then comes paying attention to everyone else and full blown FOMO instead of sticking to your own game.
Fear of leaving money on the table.
No better feeling than seeing your trades run in profit.
The screen is lit up blue and your loving it.
But now comes the fear of letting them trades play out.
Your leaving money on the table and it's now a fear you'll lose that money.
It's one of the biggest mistakes a trader makes!
Cutting winning trades to soon and letting losers run for to long.
So how to overcome these fears?
There's many elements to overcoming the four fears .
There's so may and then even sub elements of those.
Hence why this idea had the two brainstorm bubbles on the chart of what fears haunt us as traders.
Followed by the bubble of all the thoughts you need to take in to consideration as a trader.
It's imperative as traders we build a robust tested plan.
Sticking to your own plan and lane is crucial.
Just avoid others that blur your plan.
Losses are a part of trading quicker you accept this as a cost of business quicker that fear of losing money disappears.
There is many more on the chart drawing but quicker these behaviours are followed as a trader the quicker the four fears will disappear.
Here's to a good rest of the week🥂
Thanks for looking at my Idea
Darren 👍
How to win over greed?🎃1. Greed is the problem
Many beginners and even experienced traders face greed. It's a feeling that makes you believe in your superiority over the market:
• Opening a lot of trades, breaking risk management
• Continuing to trade after incurring a loss
• Refusing to take profits, hoping to earn more
• Averaging losing trades, because everything is about to change.
• Believing in the reliability of your pattern, although no pattern or indicator always works out 100%.
2. Why does greed take over?
We all have our own desires and goals. Society teaches us that we shouldn't deny ourselves comfort. This leads the vast majority to take out loans for new clothes, iPhones, Cars.. This is how people get used to greed's superiority and put it before discipline, getting accustomed to being able to live beyond their means.
What do you think happens to such people when they come into trading?
God forbid, such a person immediately learns about futures, then he will lose everything in a month at most. This is exactly the 95% who lose money in the market.
They suddenly see an opportunity to make a million out of $10,000 in a month, and, inspired by the stories of dogecoin millionaires from YouTube and Reddit, start to long bitcoin with x125 leverage.
There is another type. They do not rush to make money, they act more cautiously. They set themselves up right away that "trading is a long game and there is no hurry". They develop steadily and study pattern after pattern. However, their game pays off very slowly, and under the influence of their expertise they allow themselves more and more "experiments". They are like King Theoden from Lord of the Rings, who was slowly losing his mind under the watchful eye of Wormtongue.
3. How do you get around greed and start using it to your advantage?
Change your perspective. Instead of being greedy for money, become greedy for your professional growth . Ironically, if you stop focusing on money, they will come.
Create a journal and start analyzing your trades:
• What were your reasons for entering?
• Did you need to open that trade or was it suboptimal?
• Did you act under the influence of emotions, and if so, which one and why?
Develop, grow, and reward yourself when you get better, even if your trading results are unchanged. Your brain needs to get used to the fact that the most important thing now is discipline and small improvements. Step by step, you will become a profitable trader and, when you do, withdraw your honestly earned profits into fiat to reward yourself for your fortitude and persistence. You will succeed, because unlike all casino players, you will have the backbone and endurance!
Good luck on your journey! If you have any questions, feel free to ask them in the comments, I always check and answer them.
Leave a like so you can enjoy the trader psychology posts in the future as well, and thanks for reading to the end. You are the best!
10 Trading Commandments of a Successful Trader 📜
Hey traders,
In this post, we will discuss 10 divine rules that every trader must obey:
1️⃣ - Accept that risk and losses are a necessary part of trading.
Even though most of the traders are looking for a holy grail, for a system that produces 100% win rate, in fact, losses are inevitable, they are part of the game.
No matter how good you are as a trader, occasionally, the market will outsmart you.
2️⃣ - Have a proven trading system.
Trade only with a trading strategy that you backtested, that proved its accuracy and efficiency.
3️⃣ - Concentrate on the risk, not the reward.
Cut losses, and control your risk. Remember about risk management and never neglect that.
4️⃣ - Never trade without stop loss.
Some traders say that they can easily control losses without stop loss. Don't listen to them. Always set a stop loss once you are in a trade.
5️⃣ - Have an attainable target.
Setting a stop loss remember to know where to close your trade in profit. Follow strict rules and do not let your greed take you under control.
6️⃣ - Take your emotions under control.
No matter whether you are losing, winning, or do not see any trading setups to trade, your emotions will always try to distract you.
Be cold-hearted.
7️⃣ - Always stick to your trading plan.
Never break your rules, follow your system, and do not deviate.
Your trading plan is your only map.
8️⃣ - Limit your losses, never limit your profits.
While your gains can be scalable, your risks and losses must be fixed.
9️⃣ - Treat your trading as a business.
Trading should be treated with the same discipline as a business.
Every business has a solid business plan which entails how the day-to-day running of the business is done, and this also guides the decision-making process.
🔟 - Always journal your trades.
Always keep a trading journal. Record your winners and losers, entry reasons, mistakes, failures etc. Revise and learn from your mistakes.
Of course, that list can be extended and more commandments and rules can be added. However, these 10 in my view are the most important. Print this list and let it guide you in your trading journey.
What would you add to that list?
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
FOMO - Analysis from a Trading Psychologist FOMO.
Fear of Missing Out. We have all heard this phrase. It could pertain to that VERY LAST concert of your favorite band in the middle of the week and coming late to work the next day. Scrolling through Instagram and making a split-second purchase that never works out. We get the idea.
I can feel FOMO’s omnipresence in the trading world right now. We have seen some large career changing moves in commodities as of late. Extend the lookback time a few years and we could probably open a FOMO Crypto clinic, complete with padded rooms. Why didn’t I catch that move in Euro Power? I can’t just sit here and watch my neighbor get rich; I missed the only opportunity to make money!
Well, Crude Oil, Gold and Wheat all taught traders suffering from FOMO a healthy lesson these past few weeks. Or are they doomed to repeat it again? Traders rarely want to admit weakness, but it’s essential to becoming profitable. Hi. My name is Paul Wankmueller, and sometimes I suffer from FOMO.
I decided to turn to my favorite trading psychologists, Brett Steenbarger, PhD. Brett has been in the trading game since the late 1970’s and his Nov 21’ speech on Trading Fomo piqued my interest. Below is a summary of what I took away from it, and some preventative ailments attributed to Brett’s psychological evidence-based outcomes.
FOMO is a PnL Killer! At its core FOMO is a fear. The problem is not that we missed the trade, it’s that our brains perceive that missed trade as a threat to our future, our success, our reputation. When humans are afraid of something, or see a threat, it produces anxiety. This fear takes blood away from the part of the brain where higher level thinking takes place and sends it to the part that impulsive thinking lives. There WILL be poor decision making under the influence of anxiety. The key to solving this issue is to take the threat out of the situation.
Solutions:
Taking a break from the screen is healthy but it is not a long-term fix. Brett explains how to train in exposure therapy (His presentation explains this in greater depth.) Slow breathing and visualization are more adept at battling FOMO. If you can visualize a calming place or situation and pair it with that fear, daily practice and dedication will prevent blood flow to the impulse zone. Gradually, when FOMO comes around, you will experience feelings of safety. Combined with expanding your time of reference, understanding, and acknowledging FOMO will make those events look like potholes on a long highway.
Missing a trade is a bummer, but is that going to end my career? No. Will buying at the top, and then being so irate that I add to a losing trade and forgo stop orders end my career? It might. Will I be thinking clearly on my next trade with a fresh mistake permeating my thoughts? Nope. The best motivation to avoid FOMO is to develop emotional hate towards the negative consequences of it. In the fullness of time, the desire to avoid negative outcomes becomes self-reinforcing with repetition and therefore cements as an internal priority. This works across the board in other life scenarios as well.
Tapping into other motivations besides PnL is one that really hit home with me as well. Brett dives into the desire to learn and grow as a greater motivator than just PnL alone. This addition will create a dual purpose to each trade. You are diversifying your outcome! If you come away from a trade with a negative PnL, but with a positive learning experience, you are building your LC (Learning Capital). With time under this premise, your LC will be indistinguishable from your monetary statement.
Instead of tying your value as a trader strictly to your PnL, tie your value to your consistency and risk management. The magnitude of your PnL is nothing without consistency. Risk management begets larger positions, lower drawdowns, and an overall better quality of work life.
A day comes with myriad experiences. Maybe you woke up next to the love of your life, saw your kids off to school, got an extra good boy wag of the tail from the pup, the list goes on. Create a diversified life with people and activities that fulfill you outside of trading and your trading will improve. Reminding yourself daily of this is important.
Tying all of this together is the practice of keeping a daily ABCD Journal.
A- Activating Event – What got you upset? - Missing the trade in this case.
B- Beliefs about the event – Little voice in your head – Why is this upsetting to you? “Other people are getting ahead of me, I’m not as good as they are”
C- Consequences from the event – How does negative thinking affect your subsequent trading? I’m so upset about missing the opportunity I go ahead and miss the next one!
Becoming proficient in ABC will allow you to recognize the triggering event in real time. You begin to identify the negative beliefs and become a pro at understanding the magnitude of the consequences. You can change the pattern of your behavior because the consequences are so front and center.
D- [Disputation- You are talking back at that negative thinking. How would you talk to someone you care about who is in that situation? Mentoring a teammate that missed a big play involves constructively lifting them up and helping them learn from it with a comforting tone. You aren’t going to beat them up.
I welcome all feedback and am also here if you want to chat about a particular experience. Happy Trading!
-Paul Wankmueller, CMT
MAIN ELEMENTS OF YOUR TRADING PLAN | Trading Basics 📝
Hey traders,
One month ago I wrote an article about the importance of a trading plan. Now it is time to discuss what should be inside your trading plan.
Before we start let me note that a trading plan is a very personal thing and depending on your personality you may have some other elements. In this article, we discuss key elements that must be in every trading plan.
🔰Trading Strategy.
I want you to realize that a trading strategy is not a trading plan. A trading strategy is simply one of its main elements.
A trading strategy defines a set of rules and market conditions that one is looking for to open a trade and then manage that.
🔰Trading Time.
Relying on your trading strategy you should know exactly when you trade. The time range must be precise and fixed. If you think that today you can trade the opening of the London session, tomorrow the Asian one, and then the US opening, I have very bad news for you.
Your trading hours must be fixed and objective.
🔰Trading Instruments.
As with your trading time, you should have a fixed trading list. A set of financial instruments that you monitor on a daily basis.
🔰Trading Journal.
You should learn to journal your trades. Just a single performance is not enough. You should note the exact market conditions that made you open the trade and many other factors that you consider to be important.
Then learn from your mistakes and improve your trading strategy based on your journal.
🔰Risk Management.
Having the best trading strategy in the world one can fail simply because of neglecting the rules of risk management.
Define your risk per trade, maximum drawdown, and biggest losing streak you can take.
Optimize your trading to keep your losses under control.
Of course, that list can be extended. We can add, for example, trading psychology into that.
As I said, a trading plan is a very personal thing and while you mature in trading it will become more and more sophisticated.
The elements that we discussed in this article are crucial for your success in trading. In my view, their absence will lead you to a failure.
What do you want to learn in the next article?
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
🔥 Very unique situation is happening for the DYDX 🔥Hello traders 🐺 .
As you saw in the title , in this idea I want to talk about this unique situation of the DYDX which in my opinion is very rare and unique in the market specially in the higher time frame like daily and weekly so this could be a very special and profitable trade for you my friends 🚀🔥 .
Many of you know about the bullish and bearish divergence and also may know that what this divergence and patterns trying to telling to us ; but there are some traders whos still don't know about this patterns , so I decided to publish this idea and talk more about the bullish and bearish divergence and also talk about the wedge pattern , so this is tutorial content and I hope this be helpful for you my dear friends .
wedge patterns :
What we have currently in above chart is falling wedge pattern , which is bullishly bias pattern but what does this means ?
when we look at the wedge patterns which in this case is falling wedge or broadening channel , we see descending trend lines which are diverging each others , so we can see a something look like channel but the channel trend lines in the wedge patterns are diverging each others .
But the important point about the wedge patterns is the story behind them , usually when we have a wedge patterns in the market , if you realize the pattern correctly in the most cased we have a divergence in the RSI , but what does this means for us ?
Wedge patterns are type of the exhausting pattern and this means that during this patterns , bigger operator of the market are trying to change the trend but they want to accumulate or distribute during the pattern and we could realize it in the RSI value , because for example in this case we have a falling wedge pattern and as you can see in the chart above we have lower lows in the chart but in the RSI we have a higher lows ;
you can see that as price start to drop , RSI start to rise during the pattern and this means that they are accumulating in the lower price but they do it slowly and want to exhaust people from the current situation of the market so they do it slowly and didn't push the price in one single move , because in that case they can't buy any more in this lower prices .
ok guys I hope this tutorial be helpful for you , but I think now it's time to talk about the DYDX situation .
As you can see in the chart , we have the exact same thing for DYDX , and in my opinion this is a very unique situation in the market because this pattern is formed in the higher time frame like daily or weekly . because of the type of this idea I can't talk more about the price targets because this is a tutorial idea and in this type of idea we have to educate people , not talk about the price targets or long and short trades , so make sure to follow me to see my next analysis about DYDX .
LET'S GET REAL: Stop Strategy Jumping!Hey Traders,
This one is going to be a little bit different, a little bit deeper and a little bit harder to listen to rather than usual technical analysis. I recommend you sit down and listen to this. Have a think whether it relates to you or whether you found yourself in this position, or even if you've gone through this position and share your experience on how you go through it. A lot of traders struggle with their strategy, jumping from aspects of trading and that's why so many educators out there make a lot of money off of them. It is time to stop.
In this video I outlay a challenge that I put to all the traders who may find themselves in this position to sit down and to thoroughly test their current or previous strategies and understand them on a deeper level. No more jumping around, no more looking outwards. Let's start looking inwards. Let's see the data that we have handed to us and what we can do to improve that data.
If you enjoyed this video, please leave a comment. Leave a like, if we do get enough likes and comments, I will make a Part 2 on how to go about this with a more depth avenue while using different resources.
As always, have a fantastic training week.
The Dunning–Kruger effectAfter recently doing a review of my last 6 months of trading, I recognized that my portfolio value over this period looked very similar to the Dunning–Kruger effect curve. (a psychological phenomenon that suggests people are not always the best evaluators of their own performance). The theory is often applied to trading because most retail traders experience a similar effect.
After spending 3 months of a practice simulator, I deposited real funds into a trading platform. Within the first week I saw a 24% increase which was shortly followed by loosing half my account value in the coming months. I then decided to take two weeks out and reflect on my performance. It was in these two weeks where I stumbled across an article called "5 steps to becoming a trader" (which I have linked to this post). I came to realize that I was completely incompetent. I didn't follow my trading plans, I got caught up in emotions and I was almost gambling money away in the hopes of getting rich quick.
The harsh reality is trading is hard. After a total of 9 month, I have only just managed to see a net positive return. I have spent thousands of hours only to be outperformed by an Index fund. One article won't change your performance, but these are some things that I learnt which could get you closer to conscious competence:
1. Don't trade with emotions, trade with your plan
2. Keep your risk/reward >1.75
3. Never risk enough money to loose sleep (enter each trade as if you have already lost the money you placed)
4. Reflect on performance and learn from mistakes
5. You don't need to win lots, you just need a mathematical edge
As a trader gains more experience, they become increasingly confident and more likely to see positive returns.
Stay dedicated!!!
GBPUSD Using the Element of TimeThe element of time is a technical analysis tool that I've previously elaborated on -> Check links to related ideas.
The illustration is pretty self-explanatory.
First attempt failed, however price presented a better opportunity a couple hours later which ultimately yielded all our profits for the week.
I will provide my thought process, execution and exits for this trade in a subsequent recording :)
Stay tuned !
Not having a position is also a position - When trading is bad?Every day we start by choosing between long and short.
Sometimes you wake up, look at the btc chart - and clearly see your setup.
And sometimes you don't see it. But you still saw how many of your friends traded shorts successfully and decide to enter a hostile market.
Bottom line: Lost profit, exhausted nerves, stress, a blow to self-esteem.
Most traders forget that there is a third option - to stand aside.
Let's discuss when such position can be useful and why most people use it so rarely.
Pro traders can be split into 2 types:
Bulls and bears. They trade for profit only in one direction, because they have a trained eye to see only their kind of setups.
When a bull finds himself in a bear market, he either trades in the red or breakeven. The same true for the bear.
And yet, even knowing this, the trader continues to trade unfriendly setups. Fueled by success that he carries from his market, he is sure that just a little more, a LITTLE LITTLE more, and he will be able to trade profitably in this market as well. "And if I can trade for profit in both directions, then I will become an absolute terminator and even Warren Buffett himself will personally beg me to share my market forecast with him!" I don’t know if you woke up with such thoughts in the morning, but I definitely had a couple of times.
The answer to this phenomenon is GREED (for money or fame). And the easiest way to get rid of such incidents is to write the following rule in your trading algorithm (I hope you have it):
• Trading during correction is prohibited.
Just one sentence will save you a huge amount of money and help you increase your capital much faster.
Instead of losing money trading corrections, it is better to:
• Relax and spend part of your honestly earned profit on yourself and your loved ones.
• Patiently wait for your market and return to the game.
Do this - and trading will bring you much more pleasure, and you will earn even more and enjoy your life!
If this article was useful to you, please like and leave a comment so that I understand that it has value to you and will continue to write educational material in the future✌️
How to lose your deposit quickly? Easy to follow Step-By-Step🔥Why am I qualified enough to teach you this?
I lost 16 deposits and in 6 years I heard dozens of stories of people who lost their life savings in a couple of months by trading. I have personally tested many of these rules and confirmed that they work.
So what are we waiting for? Lets get it started!
1. Trade with maximum leverage
There is no need to trifle, the bigger leverage is, the greater your profit will be🤑
2. Don't use stop losses
SL’s are for the weak. You probably remember how many times your positions went in the right direction after you closed them by stop loss. Stop losses are evil🤮
3. Average losing positions
Everything is simple here - the more you average, the less you lose. That means you can keep going. Nothing ventured, nothing gained🥂
4. Use your last money and don’t be shy to borrow
The more money you put in, the more money you pull out. Since you are 100% sure that BTC will grow, take loans not only in banks, but also from shady organizations, do not look at interest - you will repay everything back in a month anyway, and your profit will cover any losses💵
5. Trade only when you have been fired from work, haven't slept all night, your girlfriend/wife has left, or you have quarreled with relatives
When everything is bad in your life, it is better to do what you do best - trading. Having earned a lot of money, you will not only be distracted from everyday problems, but also regain confidence and a smile on your face!😉
6. When you closed a losing position, immediately open a new one with double volume to recoup losses
You came into trading to win! So win and never admit defeat! You are Hercules and defeating everyone in the market - this is your 14th feat! No step back, only forward!✊
7. Prioritize Elon Musk's conspiracy theories and tweets over technical analysis
Do you already have the conviction that the Illuminati run the market and every time you open a position and the market goes in the opposite direction, the Illuminati move to harm you? If not, then quickly look at your lost trades. You did everything right, but you still lost money. Why is that? Just don't tell anyone...🤫
8. Believe that trading is luck and the odds are always 50/50
This makes it much easier to make decisions. If black has fallen out on the roulette wheel 2 times in a row, then the chances that red will fall out are much greater. Therefore, do not hesitate to go against the trend, probability theory is on your side 💪
9. Stop exercising your body and mind
You will need neither a healthy body nor a focused mind in trading. You only need your eyes to see “buy“ and “sell“ buttons, you don't need much intelligence for this. Being in the green zone? The green zone is a myth for suckers who engage in self-deception.😏
10. Quit your daily job
Since you already created an account on Binance a week ago, watched a couple of trading videos, sorry, I meant in-depth educational materials, and even have already made a couple of successful trades, then it's time to finally quit that boring job. The road to millions is open, it remains only to take the last step.🤩
11. Manage your friends money
Why getting rich alone? Take your friends and family with you. They will be grateful later.🙌
12. Don't look away from the screen until you've regained every last cent.
Winners don't walk away with losses. Make sure your deposit has at least doubled before ending a session.😎
13. Never fix profits. If it has grown a little, then it will grow more.
Do you remember how you closed the position when the coin grew by 5-10%, and then it rose another 200%? That’s what I’m talking about. Don't close too early, keep trades for the maximum profit.📈
14. Trade at night
If you don't have time, don't give up. There is always an opportunity to earn. Even after a hard day at work.🤜🤛
15. Analyze the market on a 5m timeframe and trade on the 1m.
Opportunities are always there - the main thing is to be open to them.🤞
I hope these tips will help you quickly drain your deposit down and return to a normal life. If you liked them or you are already using them, please click Like and leave a comment so that I understand that it is valuable to you and will continue to write educational materials in the future.✌️
How to analyze any market from scratch #3Hello everyone:
Many of you have asked me to continue making more of these analysing from scratch video, so I have prepared another one here for you today.
Not only will we refresh the previous 2 educational videos on this topic, I will go into a bit more details on the confirmation on the lower time frames with multiple examples in the chart.
Recall from the previous videos I made, when we want to analyze the chart from scratch, we always start:
1. From the higher time frames (HTF) to identify the impulse/correction phases of the market conditions so we can come up with a possible bias and direction of the current price.
2. Once we have a possible direction and bias, then we go down to the lower time frames (LTF) to also identify the impulse/correction phases which will lead to your confirmation and entry.
These are simple steps to follow, based on multi-time frame analysis, top down approach.
Many have told me it's not hard to identify the HTF’s impulse and correction, but what can be classified as a LTF confirmation before entry?
Let's take a detail look into a few examples:
A LTF confirmation is when the price is developing a few more price action structures/patterns that align with your HTF direction and bias.
These can be continuation/reversal corrections on the LTF; impulse phases on the LTF that go with your bias on the HTF; multiple corrections within the larger corrections (patterns within patterns)...etc.
The more of these LTF price actions you can identify, the more it strengthens your analysis and forecast on the HTF.
Thank you
Do check out my previous educational contents on this same topic to better learn my approach to analyse any market from scratch.
How to analyze any market from scratch #1
How to analyze any market from scratch #2
Trading in Books vs Trading in RealityWhat we study in the books is always different from what we have in real life. For example, French language that people learn and exercise in textbooks is slightly different from the French that we speak in France, as we tend towards using informal language and slang phrases. Same rule applies to trading, as the market is not 100% accurate with what we have in the books that educate us on trading. What we have in the books is absolutely crucial to learn the basics and even more. However, while applying the learned theorem in practice, in our case in the real-life markets, we notice that things are different. Thus, it is important to combine these two elements (on and off the market education) to master the craft.
Furthermore, beauty always lies within simplicity. What's written and illustrated in the books, is the most understandable language of trading. Hence, the expression "textbook stuff" exists. The more experience you gain in this field, the more you will realise that it is crucial to keep things super simplistic if we want to have a crystal clear vision of the market.
The Market is NOT the EconomyGood day, Traders! This week I came across the following headline from a major newspaper: "Stocks Suffer Worst Quarter in 2 Years Amid War, Inflation." It was a surprise to me, because, the majority of the traders that I know didn't miss a beat... March was a great month for trading, just as February was a great month, and so was January! Why is that?
Simply put, the Market is NOT the Economy .
It doesn't matter is there is a pandemic,
it doesn't matter if there is a recession,
it doesn't matter if there is a war,
it doesn't matter if the tech oligarchs are censoring free speech,
it doesn't matter who slaps who at some celebrity event.
The market is composed of people , groups , and institutions trading products in a market whose prices are governed by Supply and Demand .
Oil is at all time highs? Doesn't matter to us traders because we'll find opportunities to both buy and sell based on price action.
"The Euro is losing value?" they say? Again it doesn't matter to us traders because we will find opportunities to go both long and short when our system tells us to do so.
Should you Short the DOW because you think American Industrial companies are going to suffer the repercussions of the last 2 years of lockdowns? Again, it just doesn't matter to the experienced Trader - when the opportunity to go long or short presents itself, just like that proverbial fork in the road, we take it!
"But Captain, you Magnificent Maven of Market Manipulation" you say, "It's impossible to predict market movement. I might as well visit my local casino and go all in on Red on the Roulette Wheel!"
That's what the so-called "experts" want us all to think - Give the "experts" your money and you will be taken care of in your retirement, right? How many professionally managed funds routinely beat the market? According to the New York Times, ZERO. According to a recent report by Business Insider, 90% of actively managed funds failed to beat the market.
If these Ivy League "professionals" spending their entire day trying to beat the market consistently FAIL, Why is it that consistently profitable traders succeed? Because we traders are following those who MOVE the market.
When we traders follow a system that works , and we then develop the ability to "work the system" we get to do what very few people get to do: consistently generate reliable income in the market regardless of economic conditions, regardless of who is in the White House, regardless of what society tells you can or cannot do based on your age, race, or economic status... that's the beauty of being a trader... Freedom.
Until we meet again, Trade well!
The Iceberg Illusion of Success in Trading 🏔️
When people see a consistently profitable trader they do not consider all the costs a successful trader has paid overtime (below the surface) to get to what they see (above the surface).
So many things happen below the surface that nobody can see.
Here are some of the below the surface things that compose the top of the iceberg that everyone sees:
🔰Dedication – you need to be loyal to your dream of becoming a pro trader. Your belief must be that strong so no one could dissuade you. You need an iron discipline to make it happen.
🔰Hard work – you should work day after day not letting yourself give up. Charts must be in front of you as much as it is possible. Trading terminal must become your best friend.
🔰Good habits – follow your trading plan, do not break your rules of risk management, avoid FOMO, etc. This is the set of habits that will be your satellite in your trading journey. Do them consistently and they will become a natural part of your life.
🔰Disappointment – it does not matter how hard you try. Occasionally things will fall apart anyway: you will face losing streaks and a strategy will refuse to work. It will hurt. "Stand up straight with your shoulders back". Treat disappointments as temporary things.
🔰Sacrifice – to become a consistently profitable trader you should pay the price. Losses, time, nerves. Your prosperous future will have a tremendous cost.
🔰Failure – while you are learning how to trade you will inevitably blow a couple of trading accounts, you will spend time on strategies and techniques that do not work. Occasionally you will fall. If so, stand up and keep going.
🔰Persistence – keep doing what you are doing no matter what. Do not let others persuade you that you can't make it. Even if things get tough, stay strong.
🔰Focus – always know what is your end goal, know where are you going, and what is your end destination.
🔰Flexibility – be prepared for sudden changes in the environment. Keep your focus on the goals that you set learning to adjust to the changing circumstances.
🔰Consistency – you will not get the desired results immediately. Be ready to do the same again and again, hundred times until the goal is achieved.
Overnight success does not exist. If you want to become a consistently profitable trade be prepared for years of struggling and pain. And do not be afraid, it is worth it.
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Know When to Stop Trading⛔️
✅Today we will talk about one of the most important things in trading, about what most traders around the world cannot do, even though they are well aware of the need for these actions. It will be about suspending and completely stopping their trading activities.
✅What to do if the trading system has failed, the market has changed, emotions fail or something has gone wrong. It is in this situation that the rules of action in extreme trading situations come to our aid.
1️⃣Three shots and you're dead — the rule of stopping trading within a day
🟢The main essence of this rule is contained in the title. And its essence is to stop trading if 3 consecutive losing trades were made during the trading session. No more deals are opened on this trading day. The trader has received a clear signal that something has gone wrong and the problem is either with the strategy or with the market or with the trader.
🟢Especially psychologically strong people who are sure that they will not be drawn to recoup, can continue to monitor the market, but it would be better to just close the trading platform and do something else, and after the trading session to analyze and find out what the problem was.
2️⃣Three volleys and you're dead — the rule of stopping trading for 2 days
🟢This rule is quite simple in formulation and just as complex in execution, in fact, as all the rules of risk management and capital management.
🟢If the three-shot rule has worked for three days in a row, then trading stops for 2 days. The principle is the same as in the previous rule, but in this case, the trader receives a signal that the problem is more serious than originally thought and it will not be possible to simply wait it out, serious measures need to be taken to analyze and correct the situation.
3️⃣The 30% trading capital rule
🟢If 30% of the trading capital was lost during trading, then trading stops completely until the moment when this loss is made up in any other way (of course legal). This rule will help to save your main working tool — trading capital and will allow you to relieve psychological stress because the trader will come out of a stressful state and realize that he has other ways of earning income, i.e. trading is not conducted with the last money.
❗️Observing these 3 simplest rules of stopping trading, you can be sure that you will never lose your deposit and even in the worst case scenario you will always be able to stop and beat the excitement that pushes many traders to return to the market again and again until zero remains on the account.However, all of the above is true only under one small condition — all three rules are strictly observed
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IGNORE THE NOISE AND NEGATIVE EXTERNAL ENERGYTrading is a one big system that consists of various different components: technicality, psychology, money management and so forth. The most difficult one out of all the elements is definitely psychology. Human psychology is a perplexing system that studies our mental process and behaviour. Our behaviour and mood rely on multiple internal and external factors. In our everyday life, our behaviour towards something can easily change when being affected by negative energy. The very same principles apply to trading. Our decision-making process can easily get fogged and mood get ruined after experiencing some losses, opportunity misses and so on. Even worse, our desire and will to keep trading and striving for success can get intercepted by some negative opinions and attitiudes of surrounding people.
It is totally acceptable to live a life that others do not understand. If you want something really bad, nothing can get in your way and stop you from achieving it. Block all the negative energy. Keep prospering, working towards your ambitions, and proving all the people that did not believe in you wrong!
Investroy
What Traders Want vs What Traders Get"It is a marathon, not a sprint". One of the statements that perfectly describes trading. But what does this proclamation really mean? I quote William Shakespeare: "Go wisely and slowly. Those who rush, stumble and fall". Great things take lots of time. 90% of all people get false expectations about trading before they enter the industry. They think it is a "get-rich-quick" scheme. In reality, it takes months/years of practice, hard work and experience to reach the doors of consistency and profitability. Furthermore, consistency in trading does not necessarily imply that every trade will be a winning one. It just indicates that if you keep following your trading plan, be risk tolerant and disciplined, you will be profitable and successful in the long-run.
We encourage you all to be patient and just ride with the trend as there is no need to rush anywhere. After all, Rome was not built in a day.
Hope you all enjoyed this quick educational and informative post! The purpose of this publication was to give you all some guidance and keep you motivated so you can continue your journey to the top of the mountain. If you have any more suggestions and recommendations on what our next educational idea should be about, feel free to let us know in the comments section below.
Investroy
How to continue in trading during uncertainty timeHello traders:
Recently I received many messages from traders about taking many losses during this uncertain time.
What's going on globally right now may have a different impact on all the different markets.
Many have told me of your frustration, stress, and negative emotion on losing money and continue to feel defeated.
Today I will explain a few things that you can implement into your current trading plan,
approach and perspective during this period of time.
First, you must acknowledge risk management.
Too many traders ignore this key important aspect of trading.
Especially during this time where the market can be volatile and irregular.
It's in your best interest to understand how to manage your risk. You should have a plan that lists out how your approach would be.
For example for my risk management right now:
-1% per trade of account capital.
-No more than 1 trade on the same currency, unless the first trade is secure in profit.
-No more than 2 trades open during a day, max drawdown 2% per day
-10-15 trades per month
-3 trades maximum per week
-Minimum 3:1 RR allow before entry
-Will Take profit on average when in profit 3:1 RR.
Second, learn to control your mindset and emotions.
More often when traders approach me these days, they are telling me they are taking too many trades, chasing profits and revenge trading their losses.
All these arise from the mistakes of FOMO, get rich quick mindset, enter multiple trades.
IF a trader can truly understand the fact that the market will always be there tomorrow, next week, next month..etc, then it's an easier thing to deal with on a psychological level.
You will no longer stress about trying to enter too many trades, worry that the market may not be available tomorrow.
Third, less social media exposure.
In today’s world, unfortunately in trading, most of the things you see on social media are fabricated and fake.
Their sole purpose is to sell you a dream, lifestyle, and easy money concept.
ITs always during this uncertain time, you will see more and more of these “gurus” who will show you how much $ they made during this time.
Now, I am not saying all are fake or scam, I am sure small # of them are doing well.
But, most of the things you will see in your social media feed, are likely to be photoshopped, faked, fabricated to make you believe whatever you are doing is wrong, and you tend to “compare” your result with these people.
This ended up becoming very negative and stressful to continue.
ITs important to understand trading is one of the toughest professions out there.
IT requires so much emotion control, clear mindset, and proper psychology on a regular basis.
If you are struggling, it's usually not to do with your trading strategy, but rather your approach, perspective, and perception.
So, eliminate as many unrealistic things you might see, and focus on yourself and your journey.
Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know.
Thank you
Stop Loss hunting: the whole truth and the logic behind itGood time of the day, dear TradingView family! Welcome on another educational post by Investroy. Today we are gonna be talking about Stop Loss hunting. We will scrutinise what it is, how it happens and what's the logic behind it, and how to possibly avoid being "liquidated".
Have you ever had the price trigger your Stop Loss before impulsing all the way to your Target Profit and hitting it? If the answer is yes, then you have probably been a victim of Stop Loss hunts. But what is Stop Loss hunting? In simple terms, it is a strategy that forces some participants out of the game by driving the price to the level where they have set their Stop Loss orders. As we all know, retail traders always look for some sort of confirmations before entering a position. It can be a candlestick pattern, a moving average cross, a double top / double bottom formation and so on. They enter a position and set their Stop Loss a few pips above/below the local supply/ demand level . What happens 90% of the time is the price spikes up/down, hits the Stop Loss, liquidates so many positions and participants from the trade, and then continues moving alongside the trend. Why does it happen? Institutional traders know exactly what they need to do and which levels they need to buy/sell. Consequently, they set their buy/sell limit orders at places where they know retailers would set their Stop Losses, because they need to generate liquidity before jumping in the train. It does not necessarily signify that they track where retailers put their Stop positions, it is just they are more than sure which levels are crowded with Stop Loss orders.
We have prepared some examples in order to better elaborate on the issue and scrutinise how the case looks visually. Of course, these are only simple exemplars. It does not unquestionably mean that the price will always behave this way as the market conditions change quite often.
Looking at Example #1, we can see that the price spiked above the level of the right shoulder of the formed H&S pattern before continuing its downside movements. Now, which action do most retailers take once they spot these textbook patterns? They execute right away with their Stop Loss above/below the structure, which results in the positions getting wiped out.
Example #2 shows how the price spikes below/above obvious levels of support/resistance before continuing movements in the deliberate destinations.
Example #3 illustrates how obvious ascending/descending/sideways channels are, and how easy it is to get liquidated instantly, before the price carries on moving in the destined end.
How to avoid being eliminated? Well, you won't always be able to run away from Stop Loss hunting, but if you develop a proper working strategy against it, you will be able to identify possible zones filled with Stop Loss orders and avoid setting one around that area. If you are not gonna think long and hard about where you are gonna put your Stop orders, you will easily get eliminated in a sea of Stop Losses. Thus, think outside of the box and have patience before jumping in a particular trade.
Hope this educational idea is useful! If you have any comments or enquiries, do not hesitate to ask in the comment section below. Also, if you want us to make an educational post on a topic that interests you, feel free to drop your recommendations and suggestions in the comment box as well!
Have a great rest of the week!
Investroy