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HYPERBITCOINIZATION: Adjusting prices for inflationInflation is a measure of a currencies devaluation over time. It is determined by the consumer price index (CPI) which itself is a record of the cost of a standardised basket of goods over time. CPI figures are recorded monthly by governments. Here I use the CPI of the USA. Economists call a price which has been adjusted for inflation the real price . To adjust the price P the formula is simple: P_adjusted = CPI_today / CPI_date * Price_date What this means is that the adjusted-for-inflation price (P_adjusted) for, say, Dec 2014 is equal to the CPI value today (CPI_today) divided by the CPI for Dec 2014 (CPI_date) * the price for Dec 2014 (P_date). Do this for every month in your set. You can see that for Bitcoin this adjustment makes very little difference to the price, because Bitcoin is very young. But if you do this for say gold you can really see how inflation affects value over time. In fact when we adjust for inflation, the 2012 bubble was in fact less dramatic than the 1980 bubble - no wonder, that was the peak of 1970s hyperinflation. Gold was in demand, yet inflation continued to grow steadily since then, meaning today's dollar is worth less than even a 1970s dollar. Going back to Bitcoin, you can move the crosshairs on the main chart and compare prices for a given date. Check the Dec ATH for instance. The price difference will give you an idea of how much the dollar has been devaluing since then. The following chart shows that using July 15 2018 (today) as the reference date, the dollar has lost 14% of its value in real terms since 2010 when Bitcoin trading started.
BNC:BLXEducation
by RealMcafee
5
How to trade reversal patterns & Fib extensions / Elliott wavesWhen you see a morning star pattern (you can use candle software to find such), usually it marks the start of Elliott wave 1 to 5 sequence, you enter at the end of the first correction wave (retrace into the body of morning star pattern). When wave 2 is completed, we plot Fibonacci retracements from the tail of Morning star and you will see how perfectly price reaches Fib extension 161.8 (1.336), the end of Elliott wave 5, doing pullbacks at FE 61.8 and FE 100 (1.326). Metatrader´s Fib extension has extensions of 61.8, 100 and 161.8 but thats enough. Now price is doing ABC correction pattern as you see.
Education
by ICFX
1
Currency StrengthCurrently, USD benefits from two forces that build up sentiment worth mentioning, the Peace Summit and the FED meeting. However, powers are already fainting. Buying power of both currencies is exceeding selling power, however in USDJPY (UJ) there can only be one the strongest. So here it may look JPY is being sold mainly but it's merely aiming down because in the UJ relation the balance of buying against selling is in favor of the USD. Direction of the individual currencies steer the pair of the two. In this case of chart layout, divergence sends USDJPY up and convergence USDJPY down.
Education
by Deep-Peat-Shark
3
Bitcoin vs. Gold. "Ultimate Bubble" face off! + Soros Indicator!Who wins? Bitcoin is definitely the prettier of the two xD Some info: George Soros famously called gold the ultimate bubble in 2010 due to declining interest rates which he felt would lead to the formation of asset bubbles ( link ), however didn't stop him from buying, first in 2010 ( link ) before the bubble burst and then later in 2016 ( link ). He sold off his gold after it peaked in 2012 ( link ) and then reacquired after it found a bottom in 2016. Soros also bet ON Bitcoin in 2017 by acquiring shares in Overstock in Q4 which he subsequently sold in Q1 2018, after the market peaked. Look at the charts. What do you think? Are gold and Bitcoin similar bubbles? Is the Soros Indicator reliable?
FX_IDC:XAUUSDEducation
by RealMcafee
9
VERY IMPORTANT! How to see if a rally is Real or Fake!So many people blame the unpredictable price moves on the whales. (As if the whales aren't investors, too). In lack of better words these people are blaming the unknown for their failure to understand the market's environment. Not to mention spending hours or days over-analyzing a fake rally that is 100% going to deflate So, Dogecoin Shill, what do I do to become a super advanced trading master like you!? Google trends. Go to trends.google.com, type in bitcoin. The bitcoin chart on google trends looks identical to the 1 year chart of bitcoin. As bitcoin's popularity increases, new money comes in and drives up the price. The charts have had one noticeable inconsistency in the last year, which is this recent rally. Bitcoin's price went up 50%, but the popularity stagnated and actually decreased a bit. I took short position at $9k, and tried to post something here at the time but couldn't do it (I'm still figuring out this website) , and I apologize to my followers for that. If you were following me before, I predicted this recent rally in early April when i went long. Leave a like and follow, I do not post on here unless I am extremely confident in my predictions, and if I've already taken the buy or sell position. Peace! -Doge
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Dogecoin_Shill
5
The Dragon, The Eagle And The Elephant Investors seem to have started shifting their focus from equities and rates onto the US dollar. We believe that if this dollar rally accelerates it will be a major headache for emerging markets i.e. China, India, and Russia. In part 1 of this report I would like to talk about the Dragon the Eagle and The Elephant, first let’s start with the dragon; China.Over the first few months of 2018, we observed that the PMI’s (leading economic indicator) of China had peaked resulting in a slowdown in the Chinese economy as an economy slows down the prices of commodities tends to follow to the downside. Read more at www.patreon.com
Education
by couragepharm
What's Geopolitics and Ponzi schemes got to do with you?I focus more on historical factors in brief overview in the video. There is an emerging perception that both the EURO and the US Dollar a Ponzi schemes of sorts. How can the US Dollar which is backed by 'thin air' have come to dominate the world. What is a Ponzi scheme? Are there similar elements in both the EURO and the USD? Look and you may see. Geopolitics affects these two. But I'm not really going into the 'fundamental analysis' of this at any deep level, at all. Demand for a currency is influenced by international trade which then is connected to stock markets. I'm not able to dig deeply into the complex interactive connections here. To be clear, I separate Geopolitics from 'Politricks' which I blogged about before. I'm saying that we need to be aware of Geopolitics in the higher time frames like 1D charts. That's not just about currencies - it's also about stock markets. Stuff that may be of interest: A Ponzi Scheme Special Interview Noam Chomsky 2018 A deeper understanding of money from a global pespective - and potential complications, by Yanis Varoufakis The Monetary System Explained - how the Federal Reserve works (or not). Century of Enslavement: The History of The Federal Reserve
Education
by Captain_Walker
Nasdaq_Indexes_Look into todays action_Shorts considered only. Occasionally I will be slapping together a commentary about the days action on my favorite index and making a point to pickout the best entry of the day. This does not mean I take these entries. I simply point them out. These posts will be short simple and insightful. Notice the daily is bearish. We know better than to hold onto long positions. Over the weekend SPX and DOWJ setup very nice looking sell signals. Market makers know all of us retail traders sat around and thought about how bad we wanted to get short all weekend. So first thing this morning they gave us our fills. NQ pushed lower and stopped out tight long trades and entered silly short orders. Then the market made a substantial move higher only to stop out the retail short traders. Only to stall around lunchtime. Markets ticked around until 2pm when we finally started showing bearish signals and my plan allowed my to trade with the direction of the daily. Price broke the lunchtime level and then formed a perfect verification process to confirm we were about to move lower. The market took back all the days gains between 2 and 3:50. Notice the 5 minute chart in the comments below.Cant post the 5 min which truly shows the details of today's move. What a day. Stay tuned! If you found this analysis useful or thoughtful Likes/Comments/Follows are much appreciated! Disclaimer: Your data may be different. Material is educational only. Trade at your own risk!
FOREXCOM:NAS100Education
by UnknownUnicorn981629
Learning how USD corrolates with non-USD currencies. EURCADMy CURRENT definition of RISK. RISK ON USD down, moving XXX/USD currencies up and USD/XXX currencies down. or RISK OFF USD up, moving XXX/USD currencies down and USD/XXX currencies up. Mid term (3 wks-6mo) I lean bias towards 2018 trading in RISK ON mode. Which means EURUSD is a buy mid-term. USDCAD is a sell mid-term. In the last several months we have been in RISK ON mode with EURUSD in a obvious uptrend. I've noticed EURCAD trends UP when we are risk on. So mid-term we cannot expect to short EURCAD because we know the underlying currencies are in up trends. Short term I do believe there is room for a pullback to the 1.53 or 1.52 levels coupled with a pullback in EURUSD. But ultimately I will be looking to trade EURCAD higher in months to come. Full Disclaimer: This is a test I'm running to better understand how correlations among two USD pegged pairs perform when pegged against each other. I will be referencing both EURUSD and USDCAD often. EURUSD is perfectly 1-1 inversely correlated with USD. This is because the EURUSD is the strongest correlated currency to the USD in the world and ultimately controls EURCAD by nature. Trade between the United States and the European Union is over half of USD transactions so EURO's are the most strongly correlated out of all other currencies. That being said when I'm looking at the price of EURUSD, I'm actually reflecting on the price of USD if that makes any sense. EURUSD is up when USD is down BECAUSE USD is down! I track USD with the US Dollar index. Ticker DXY. If you found this useful or thoughtful Likes/Comments/Follows are much appreciated! Disclaimer: Oanda data shown. Material is educational only. Trade at your own risk! and ultimately controls EURCAD by nature
Education
by UnknownUnicorn981629
How to pick a level to buy or sell at effectively?Cause and effect. That's all that you really need to know. Always ask yourself, 'which area started the move that caused a long term key level to break?' What is this important? Because it shows a clear supply and demand imbalance at that price. It shows that there is interest at this specific zone, at which, there is likely to be unfilled pending orders, as well as a desire to initiate market orders on a return to the zone. This is why you might notice that sometimes when you trade a breakout, the market may have a deeper retrace into the level, rather than simply using the broken level as support or resistance (and then stopping you out). You have to interpret price alongside technical analysis, since the market doesn't care about what YOU think, but where it can find the best liquidity to initiate orders. In the Cable example shown, you can see that the $1.70 level played a key part in knowing where price support was on the move up to $2.00+. Using the weekly chart, we can then see where our 'key zone' to sell into is. This is denoted as a supply zone - where you see a bullish candle in a down move just before the key support is broken (or the first bullish candle just before the support is broken). The opposite is true for a demand zone - this is where you see a bearish candle just before the key resistance is broken (or the first bearish candle before a level is broken). This method is very easy in terms of risk management - your stop goes above the supply zone and below the demand zone. I then have a take profit at the next key level - you're just trading between zones. When you become used to this, you can then go down in your timeframes and have more intraday positions, or intrahour if you so wish. A few things - it's easier to manage risk on a longer term trade. It's also easier to increase position sizing on longer term trades, as well as higher timeframes having more overall significance and a higher win rate, although the opportunity cost of this is the fact that you have less frequent opportunities and it requires a hell of a lot more patience.
Education
by FinkPro
Trends are THE MOST IMPORTANT tool in the toolbox.Hello Traders. Hope everyone is staying warm. Snow and zero degree temperatures expected in Virginia. Many traders use many different indicators. There are so many its impossible to tell which ones are useful. Simplicity is key. The most important tool in a traders toolbox is the ability to deceiver the prevailing trend. Using higher high/ lower low analysis we can identify the difference between strong market moves and weaker ones. This stems from the well known philosophy that in order for markets to continue moving in the correct direction they need to confirm momentum shift before making large moves. -Resistance is considered overhead levels that price struggles to break AND CLOSE above. -Support is considered under price levels that price struggles to break AND CLOSE below. Notice how I mention, AND CLOSE. It is 100% required that price CLOSES above the support or resistance level to declare it broken on whatever time frame chart being traded. After the perfect head and shoulders pattern unfolded many traders continued to short EURUSD without much success (Took a stop loss myself) One must recognize the downward momentum was triggered by the bearish head and shoulders pattern (see attached post, traded perfectly.) In actuality the trend is still bullish. At the end of the head and shoulders move, trend reversed only briefly. Price was unable to break the low before moving higher. At (1) the first top was made. After making new highs, we always expect a retest of old resistance confirming support. (2) Price came back and tested old resistance, confirming support in a reckless fashion. This wiped all long traders out and assured direction for short traders who were burned before. Once everyone was mixed up, the trend prevailed to the upside. Now we find ourselves at (3). New highs have been confirmed so price is expected to retest old resistance to confirm as support around the 1.19500ish level. At this level I will be watching diligently for signs of rejection and ready to take entry on a single close of any rejection formations. If we confirm price action, targets are estimated around 1.2300. IF you found this useful or thoughtful Likes/Comments/Follows are much appreciated! TElphee – Self-made Technical Analyst. 5-year market enthusiast with experience in Forex, Futures and Cryptocurrencies. Disclaimer: Oanda data shown. This is NOT investment advice.
Education
by UnknownUnicorn981629
8
Psychology Of A Market RallyLike many other worthy endeavors, overcoming greed requires a lot of effort and discipline. It isn’t easy, but it can be done. It’s all a matter of taming your ego. You will have to admit and accept that you won’t make the right call every time. There will be instances when you won’t catch the market’s full move, or times when you will miss a nice setup altogether. But that’s just how trading goes. When you accept that the market is bigger than you, and that you’re bound to make mistakes, then you’ll be more focused on following your forex trading plans instead of succumbing to greed. A lot of successful traders have said that they’d rather be lucky than good. For them, it’s better to attribute success to luck than their own skills. It might not be good for the ego, but it’s definitely good for your trading psyche. And that’s probably one of the secrets of trading. Don’t be a hog and you won’t get slaughtered.
Education
by tradewonk
19
How a Hedge Fund Manager trades GoldLearn with the Lex van Dam Trading Academy on TradingView! www.tradingview.com Featured in our Trading Club, 4th July Our checklist provides a systematic process that fellow hedge fund managers and traders employ to analyse markets, from which the biggest trading decisions are made. We use similar versions to analyse major currencies, stock markets and other commodities such as crude oil, and score each factor +1, -1 or 0 depending on whether they are regarded as positive, negative or neutral for the coming month. The total ranges from +7 to -7, with a positive score indicating a potential buy, and a negative score suggesting that you may look to sell (closing long positions or going short). Sometimes of course there will be a neutral total of 0 - which in itself can be valuable in protecting your P&L by avoiding trades when there is nothing to be done. Excess liquidity. When annual growth in the money supply exceeds industrial production, as it does currently, the number is positive and is considered a bullish factor for gold as an alternative store of value and hedge against the erosion of purchasing power. This doesn't tend to change month-to-month and has indeed been positive for some time. (+1) Real interest rate. Those of you who follow us know why we like to look at the so-called 'real rate’. When this is negative it means that domestic US savers and foreign investors are growing poorer by holding cash, which is a great reason to buy gold. For now though, the uptick makes gold less appealing as an alternate store of value against fiat currencies. (-1) ETF Flows. We also like to look at whats happening in ETFs. In the case of gold we are looking for any divergence between the spot gold price and a widely traded Exchange Traded Fund which tracks gold. Currently this is neutral as there is no divergence, indicating that things are behaving normally. (0) Futures positioning. We view speculative positioning as contrarians. Presently the net position is in the middle of the recent range and pretty much unchanged on the previous month. No directional signal here either. (0) Options positioning. Lex and I also look at the options market for clues. Although it is unusual to derive a contrarian signal from the options market if the futures position is not at an extreme, when you do see them it can be very insightful. For now though, whilst the risk reversal indicates a preference for upside bets, it is far from extreme and basically neutral, at least for now. (0) Short interest. Short interest in the gold miners has EXPLODED higher in recent weeks. This is not only a clear positive for contrarian gold investors, but also something that I want to do some further research in to. Even though there was no pessimism (let alone extreme pessimism) in the futures and options components on our checklist, when stock investors are suddenly making record short bets in shares of related mining companies, it tells me that there may be an opportunity coming. (+1) Seasonality. Gold tends to move in line with historical seasonal trends as much as any asset out there. However, whilst the summer months (including July) tend to be the best for gold, there have been some significant declines too. So even though we wouldn’t trade gold based on seasonality alone, it is a factor worth considering in our checklist. (+1) Overall, we arrive at a total score of +2 for gold heading in to July. Whilst technical analysts may say that the chart looks pretty negative, the our checklist suggests that gold bears may be caught short by the bull case captured in our objective trading process. Learn with the Lex van Dam Trading Academy on TradingView! www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Education
by JamesHelliwell
1
Spot The Trend & Trade It On Lower Time FramesOne of the strongest setups are the ones that are being formed by the dual time frame momentum. By using multiple time frames you will be able to create a high probability setup. Key rule is: Large/High time frame for trend and Small/Low time frame for your entry. Personally I mostly I like to hold short term positions, so I use the daily time frame for the trend and then the 4 hour for my entry. For the purpose of this educational post I will use the weekly time frame so that we can spot the long term trend and over the course of the next 2-3 months I will update this post and you will see how very well this strategy works (for the purpose of this guide I will assume it has broken the upper range, so it isn't a trading advice or prediction of what will happen) Part 1 Spot The Trend (I use the weekly time frame, but you can apply the same principles to the daily time frame) Currently the weekly time frame is trading in a nice triangle that is narrowing. At the moment it isn't possible to spot a clear trend due to this. So we have some patience and we will wait till the price has broken out of the triangle. Now it's important to remember that a range is only considered to be broken when the candle has closed outside of it. Since we now use the weekly candle we wait till the market close on Friday, if you use the daily time frame you wait till the daily close of the market which will close the current candle and start a new one. Lets jump a bit forward in time and assume the upper range has broken when the weekly candle closed. Now we know that the weekly time frame will show a nice wave up as is often the case with a range break out. So there we have had, we had some patience, we waited till the weekly would close outside of the range and now we know that the weekly time frame trend will be up the next weeks. Now this doesn't mean straight away that on Monday the next trading day the price will jump up. Maybe the lower time frame will have a correction first because it just had a strong wave up. An indication of this on the weekly time frame can be the Stoch Rsi, Rsi or just Stoch indicator. If the price has broken out of the range but one of these indicators is already in the overbought or oversold area a retracement can be very likely. To confirm this we take a look at the lower time frames, because we want to make sure that your buy position wont drown first be a retracement on the 4 hour or daily time frame before going back up and following the weekly trend. This is the next step. Find Your Entry To avoid getting caught up in a lower time frame is very simple. You make sure that the lower time frame is pointing up in the same direction as the higher time frame. For example I use the daily for the trend and then I wait till the 4 hour points in the same direction as the daily trend and I have my entry. In our example it goes the same. Except now we use the daily and 4 hour time frames for our entry. Why not only the daily? If the daily points like the weekly time frame, you can still get caught up in the 4 hour retracement. Why not skip the daily and jump to the 4 hour Well if the 4 hour points up like the weekly time frame in our example,the daily time frame can still point down. So basically you're trading a retracement of a retracement. Which can make your position go up first based on the 4 hour, but once that retracement is done it will go down first till the retracement on the daily time frame is done. To avoid getting caught up in all these retracements we wait till the daily and 4 hour time frames will both point in the same direction as the weekly. Which will be up in our example since we assumed that the upper range has been broken. The following situation can indicate that the daily or 4 hour time frame are going up: Range has been broken to the upside Price has touched the lower range and the Stoch Rsi, Rsi, Stoch indicator made a bullish cross over
Education
by JoshFX1
2