Simple rules to understand Supports and Resistances behaviour The idea of this post is to use this current scenario to provide an idea of how to work with clear Support and Resistances zones.
a) LOOK AT THE PAST: What we mean by this is to look for zones that you can define as reversal areas (support/resistance), this must be Evident if it is not then you should not be paying attention to that chart
b) Once you have found a situation in the past that is clear enough, you can think that similarities may happen to the current scenario, For example, we would say something like: The price will reverse towards a similar level as it happened on the past
c) Be ready to be wrong: We don't know what the price is going to do precisely, BUT we can assume two situations, either will break a level, or it will reverse on a level. Let's take the previous support zone as an example. We had an evident support zone, and the price dint reversed there, BUT the price stop for a while. so we can make a rule like this:
-IF the price breaks a clear support/resistance zone; first, it will tend to stop there and make a sideways movement for a while before continuing
-IF the price reversed on a level, I should see similarities to previous situations, and I can use it as models to follow and wait for triggers or signals that I saw worked before
d)LAST RULE: The price moves between specific Support and Resistance zones following the previous 2 ideas about breaking a level or reversing on a level / Take a look how the price broke the last zone support, making a sideways movement first. After that, the bearish movement continued and now has reached the next support zone, there we should think again that both scenarios can happen, and just react to the more evident one.
USD
EURUSD: Year's High AHEAD!!! Key Levels & Scenarios
EURUSD is approaching a key daily structure resistance.
1.15 is year's high, short rally from that level was just crazy in march.
we don't know how the market will react this time, so we must be prepared for both scenarios:
in case of a bullish violation of the underlined resistance (daily higher high higher close)
the pair will most likely keep growing.
next midterm resistances will be:
1.155
1.160
if the structure will be respected (some reversal formation on lower timeframes)
the market may retrace.
closest midterm supports will be:
1.137
1.130
of course, bias right now is bullish, but it is too late to jump in.
let's patiently wait and see whats gonna happen.
When will we move out of this zone!Bitcoin has been rather boring in the past few weeks, just hanging around this consolidation zone.
I have my eyes on this level off fibs, we have a bullish engulfing and now an indecision candle at the 38
I would like to see it test the supply zone and give us a decent break out of this consolidation zone
Note : Supply zones are determined buy the last Green candle before a big push down
Demand zones are determined by the last Red candle before a big move up.
Consolidation zones are determined by an area after a move up or down where the price moves around in for a period of time.
XBT 4hr
GOLD (XAUUSD) Structure Analysis & Thoughts
gold is just unstoppable.
the price is growing like crazy this week.
if you missed this movement and plan to jump in, it is too late and very risky atm.
the price is relatively close to our next potential reversal area 1823 - 1833.
this area is based on a resistance line of a rising channel and fib.extension confluence of the last two major daily impulses.
attention! I don't say that we should just blindly short from that area.
always look for a confirmation on a lower time frame to trade against the trend.
moreover, if you want to catch a bull rally, a pullback from the above-mentioned area may let you buy on a discount from the support of the channel.
apply these structure levels based on your strategy and good luck!
EURUSD: Bullish or Bearish???
hey guys,
analyzing the price action on EURUSD we may notice that:
1.14 is our current structure high
once it was reached, the price dropped to 1.123 structure support and failed to retest the high, setting a lower high.
then one more retest of horizontal support. equal lows and a new bullish movement brought a lower high again.
for now, bulls are clearly losing momentum.
with 4 lower highs in a row, each consequent bullish leg is contracting.
the price is currently testing the green support again.
being broken to the downside, buyers will most likely lose their confidence, and selling reaction will be triggered.
next goal for sellers will be: 1.115
for bullish scenario, we need a 4H violation of the last lower high level.
the next goal for buyers will be: 1.129 (previous lower high level)
both scenarios are equally possible but I am personally on the bearish side.
How about you?
EW Analysis: USD Dollar Index May Face Limited DownsideHello traders!
Today we will talk about US Dollar - $DXY - USD Index.
DXY was in a big sideways consolidation since March, ideally within a bearish triangle in wave B. Currently, we can see it finally breaking into new lows for wave C that can stop in the 97.50 - 96.50 support zone around important 61,8% - 78,6% Fibonacci retracement and from where we may see a bullish reversal at least in three waves, maybe even back to 103 highs, but to confirm our view, we need to see a bounce and recovery back above 100 region.
What we want to point out is that if you are familiar with Elliott Waves, then you know that triangles cannot occur in wave 2, so it must be a B wave, followed by the final wave C decline and then the whole structure looks corrective within uptrend.
We just want you to be careful at this stage, so don't fall in love with bears just yet, because even stocks can be trading at extreme levels and with a potential sell-off, USD Dollar may be a safe-heaven again.
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Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.