Bitcoin's Unstoppable Rise Against the US Dollar and GoldAs we all know, Bitcoin has been the talk of the town since its inception. Its meteoric rise has left traditional investment avenues in awe, and today, I am here to shed light on an astonishing fact that will leave you even more astounded. Brace yourself for the revelation!
Since 2014, the US Dollar has only managed to make a minuscule move of 0.00006% against Bitcoin. Yes, you read that right! While the traditional financial markets have been grappling with volatility and lackluster returns, Bitcoin has been silently revolutionizing the way we perceive wealth accumulation. This remarkable statistic speaks volumes about the unparalleled strength and stability of our beloved cryptocurrency.
But that's not all! Let's compare Bitcoin's performance against another popular investment asset: gold. While gold has been considered a safe haven for centuries, it has failed to keep up with the incredible growth of Bitcoin. The precious metal has witnessed a decline in value over the same period, making it a less attractive option for investors seeking substantial returns.
Now, you might be wondering, "What does this mean for me as an investor?" Well, my dear friends, it means that the time to seize this opportunity is now! Bitcoin has proven its resilience time and time again, making it a force to be reckoned with in the investment world. Its potential for exponential growth is unparalleled, and the numbers speak for themselves.
So, I encourage each and every one of you to continue investing in Bitcoin, ride the wave of its unstoppable rise, and reap the rewards of your foresight. Don't let this chance slip through your fingers; embrace the future of finance and join the ranks of those who have already profited immensely from this digital revolution.
If you haven't already done so, consider allocating a portion of your investment portfolio to Bitcoin. It's time to diversify, explore new horizons, and embrace the possibilities that lie ahead. The world of cryptocurrencies is evolving at an unprecedented pace, and being a part of this transformative journey is an opportunity you simply cannot afford to miss.
Remember, fortune favors the bold. Take action today, and let Bitcoin be your gateway to financial prosperity. Stay ahead of the curve, and together, let's shape a future where the possibilities are limitless.
Wishing you boundless success and thrilling adventures in the world of Bitcoin!
J-DXY
The Evolution Of Money: From Barter-System To Cryptocurrency!Hello,
Welcome to this analysis about The Evolution Of Money. Till today money had a protracted history reaching back to times where there even did not exist electricity or industry like we now it these days. Since these beginnings money constantly reshaped and emerged new forms of money that theoretically can be applied still today however it is also a fact that it is important in which form the money circulates bringing innovation and prosperity to the civilization as there are money forms although logical from its form however contra-productive for the further developments.
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The Barter System (High Phase 98000 BC - 900 BC):
It is clear that in times where people did not have the ability to keep a sufficient store-of-value they had to adapt to circumstances and exchange what they had in order to receive things they need for everyday living, this form of money is called the "Barter-System". This system principally defines the exchange of goods and services against other goods and services. It was a typical hunter-gatherer-form of exchange between the individual occupations. For example, a fisherman had a lot of fish however no grain to exchange for and on the other side there was a farmer which had a lot of grain, however, no fish to eat, so these two come to an agreement to exchange the fish against the grain in order to fulfill both sides needs.
This system had a lot of substantial problems as it was not possible to store any value with the goods and services, besides it only functioned when the other side also searched for the offered product therefore there needed to be a double coincidence of wants otherwise an exchange was not fulfilled by both sides agreements. Besides that there was the issue with the indivisibility of goods, for example, one had one goat and needed one pot therefore it was only possible to exchange one goat against 10 pots and now the goat holder was stuck because he could not share the goat into 10 pieces to received his one pot as needed. Overall it was a complicated exchange system that definitely could have been improved.
Commodity Money (High Phase 6000 BC - 500 AD):
Since it was not possible to store values with the Barter-System as there were also many goods that fouled by the times this could also be improved by the right commodities that do not foul. In ancient Rome, the Romans moved on to keep salt as a store of value and exchange for goods and services. Salt is easily divisible, it can be stored for a long period of time and it was expensive and labor-intensive to produce therefore limited in quality, besides that it was widely consumed by everybody. Additionally to salt, many other forms of this commodity money emerged such as Cattle, Tobacco, Rice, Sugar, or Tea. All commodities which can be stored over a long period and exchange properly.
Together with these new gained advancements, it was a step in the right direction nevertheless there remained significant negative aspects in the commodity money these are various things such as some forms of cattle are very difficult to store because they need to be fed constantly and can not obtain a passive store, other forms like cowry shells are fragile and need to be transported carefully. Besides these storing problems, it was always difficult to transport over long routes as the commodities can take up so much room that it was simply so unpracticable to transport them over long distances. Also, there existed not universal acceptability so the two exchange partners needed to agree on the exchange of these commodities to come up with a deal.
Metal Money (600 BC till today)
Metal money was a true revolution in the money evolution and the story speaks for itself as it is still today widely accepted and a sufficient store of value with gold and silver holding its values. Against the commodity money, it was stable and had an inherent value as it is rare in nature as well as its supply is limited, the perfect characteristics for a natural store of value and also exchange value. As metals were already used for armors and tools and had already the value within these products this kept advancing with the first coins to be pressed in ancient Greece 600 BC after which the metallic money kept advancing into more sophisticated forms such as the IOUs and also tender coinage bringing a practicable way to pay for goods and services.
The Metallic Money shaped into different forms like the IOUs where Goldsmiths backed the gold and gave people a trust which they can exchange in order to receive goods and services, so the people came to the goldsmith and bought basically gold for which they received the document to pay with. The only problem with this system was that the Goldsmiths created fake IOUs and kept spending them. Besides this form, there was the legal coinage in Rome for example with gold coins issued by the empire however the problem, in this case, was that it got debased over time as the people mixed more cheap metal like copper with the gold coins to get a higher supply, today it wont function so easily as it can be proved nevertheless in this time it marked a serious issue.
Paper Money (1690 till today):
The emerging paper money in fact marked a true change in the whole money system as now it was not possible to issue by everybody, now it was issued by a central authority whereas these authorities firstly existed private also the mission came more and more into central bank area. The first printed money was created in 1690 in the form of a bill of credit to serve as a promissory note by the government on its own credit, these bill of credits were unsecured paper money and at this time in the 17th to 18th century, it was still possible to have private money with private companies creating own bills with the individual exchange qualities to get into the circulation.
Till today many currencies have established holding the money as it is issued by certain central banks such as the US-Dollar by the Federal-Reserve-System or the EURO by the European-Central-Bank. The problem here is that this money is printed by will and the central banks have the ability to just print more when the time is needed to do so like it was seen in the corona crisis where the money sum moved exponentially to new heights. Although Paper Money is still omnipresent and used as a store of value as well as exchange value to there are important faults that need to be improved to keep a healthy economic balance and obtain continued stable money.
Plastic Money (1946 till today):
In the 20Th Century, the printed central bank money moved now into the account money especially backed by the payment providers in the individual credit or debit cards. The first bank-issued cards originated in 1946 as a Brooklyn banker created the charge-it card, these were forwarded to the bank account and then the service or good was released. In post-war times further cards followed and till now there established credit-card providers which issue credit or debit cards also with giving their own credits to people that can be paid back.
Cryptocurrency (2008 till today):
This is the very last money form and the most innovative so far, like Bitcoins, like they invented, are limited in supply and can only be created through the mining process and proof of work they provide a sustainable interface within the blockchain which transactions are scalable and easy to use for peer-to-peer-transactions. It is not a wonder that the cryptocurrency market since the beginnings expanded more and more and several other projects emerged, there are still many projects given however the market will likely sort the not innovative ones out. Cryptocurrency marks the point in the history of money evolution where money advanced significantly from its initial barter exchange system to cryptocurrency. This is a major step and as for now, central banks are looking also into cryptocurrency and blockchain technology to implement their own central-bank-digital-currencies. There are really not many contra-aspects like in the previously stated money forms as cryptocurrency improved all the issues that previously came up and also innovated increasingly above these.
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In this manner, this was my analysis about the evolution of money which is important as the money keeps on shaping as we see it especially in these times with cryptocurrency, it is also not unlikely that these technologies will improve further, and there comes something new that is more applicable and innovative however till now cryptocurrency serves as the highest quality money forms when comparing to the other money forms. Especially it is the case that all money forms still coexist today however mainly not applicable.
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In this manner, thank you everybody for watching, support the idea with a like and follow or comment, have a good day, and all the best to you!
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
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Using $VIX to measure Volatility in $SPY I'm sure many of you already know TVC:VIX (Volatility Index of the S&P 500) correlates to AMEX:SPY (the S&P 500 micro index). For those who don't and those who do, this is my up to date VIX chart. Please comment what you think! But the general idea is that...
When TVC:VIX goes up, AMEX:SPY goes down
When TVC:VIX goes down, AMEX:SPY goes up
This is just one of the many comparisons I take into account when trying to gain a sense of market structure. Never use just one indication or signal to determine a trade. I also like to look at AMEX:SPY vs TVC:DXY (US Dollar). The general idea is that...
When TVC:DXY goes up, AMEX:SPY / stocks go down
When TVC:DXY goes down, AMEX:SPY / stocks go up
Again, its important to have multiple things indicating the SAME signal offering high conviction trade ideas. And these "ideas" should be thought of in a way of PROBABILITIES not PREDICTIONS with a predetermined set stop-loss and profit target.
Pay attention to market events and released data, especially the TIME those data reports come out. I honestly look at AMEX:SPY and TVC:VIX multiple times throughout the week, I do not have them side-by-side during my active trading as they don't perfectly mirror each other on any time frame. It's meant more for a larger timeframe (1H or higher) outlook and trying to gain a broader sense of sentiment in the market.
On that note..
Happy Trading !!
- E
TVC:VIX AMEX:SPY TVC:DXY
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)The US Dollar Index (also known as DXY or USDX) measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of foreign currencies. Therefore, it provides us with an insight into whether the dollar is strengthening or weakening compared to other major currencies.
This index has a positive correlation with currency pairs where the dollar is the base currency. Conversely, there is an inverse correlation.
The DXY or USDX measures the exchange rate of the US dollar against 6 currencies. The currency with the most weight in its composition is the euro.
It is a key indicator in analyzing the value of the dollar to determine its trend. Additionally, it can be used to study the global macroeconomic situation, as well as to gauge the level of economic and financial uncertainty at a particular moment. (🇬🇧)
Strifor || Education: Break LevelHello traders❗️ This is Viktor and Strifor team❗️ We welcome you to our learning content, where we briefly talk about the main things and learn how to apply our knowledge in practical trading.
The topic of today's lesson is Break Level . So, let's see what it is☝️
❗️To get know more about levels support this video with a like and a comment, follow us and trade with us👍🚀
Linking Time with Price LevelThe relationship between time and price level can be observed through the analysis of price charts and technical indicators. Technical analysis involves the use of charts and indicators to identify patterns and trends in price movements. One important aspect of technical analysis is the identification of support and resistance levels, which can help traders make decisions about when to buy or sell a particular asset.
Technical indicators can also be used to analyze the relationship between price and time. For example, moving averages can be used to identify trends in price movements over a specific period of time. The slope of the moving average can indicate the strength of the trend, while the distance between the price and the moving average can indicate the level of deviation from the trend.
In addition to technical indicators, traders also use fundamental analysis to assess the relationship between time and price level. Fundamental analysis involves the study of economic and financial data to identify factors that can influence the price of an asset. For example, changes in interest rates, inflation, and political events can all have an impact on the price of an asset over time.
To summarize, the relationship between time and price level is complex and multifaceted. Traders use a variety of tools and techniques to analyze this relationship, including technical indicators, charts, and fundamental analysis. By understanding the relationship between time and price level, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell a particular asset.
Regarding the development of price ratios, the expected price level and the expected price movement for the wave can be determined by analyzing technical indicators such as Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Price Oscillator. The RSI can be used to identify the overbought and oversold conditions of an asset, while the Price Oscillator can indicate the strength of the trend. By analyzing these indicators, traders can develop price ratios and make informed decisions about when to enter or exit a trade.
Finally, it's important to note that the relationship between price and time is not always straightforward. While technical analysis and fundamental analysis can provide valuable insights, they are not foolproof. Traders need to be aware of the limitations of these tools and use them in conjunction with other forms of analysis and risk management strategies.
The Powell meme bomb & pivotThe fed and Powell have tried everything to dismiss inflation . First ignoring it then saying transitory then changing the perimeters as to how it's calculated. Even Sleepy Joe then chimed in at one point by saying hotdogs are actually cheaper for your red white and blue lies.
How about awards... Let's give Ben Bernanke the noble economics prize during this all of this insanity! How about an Oscar to a president? (Sean Penn to Zelensky) yeah why not??
Giving Bernanke an award like "Noble Economics" is like calling Dahmer chef of the year!
What the heck is going on? People are so broke they can't even pay attention! Has reality become the twilight zone? or was it always?
Who are these people that rule us? Can they really be this incompetent? If so why is there no accountability?
Now to Powell and gang. Last year they were caught for insider trading, what was their punishment? They were forced to sell their stock, at record gains mind you. Really... that's a punishment now? No one even batted an eye.
The west has become a bunch of zombie filled degenerate nations with it's citizens consuming filth at record pace even Usain Bolt would be envious of.
For this charade to keep going, you need to print more zombie snacks (dollars) there is no other way. I do believe the market is pricing in an inevitable Fed pivot at the moment which could turn out to be a sell the news moment next year at some point (not Financial advice).
Psychological warfare. The Psy-op being played has been ramped up to new levels the past couple years and it is being reflected in the market due to technology with access to investing now easier than ever with a device sitting in your pocket, just add a little emotion with degenerative news and voila.
The Pivot will eventually come, but will be the long term effects of it? Anyone can assume but simple 101 Noble Bernanke economics will tell you it ain't good. Anyway, this is my rant for the day.
Actually, I have a question. What effect do SEC (crypto) rulings have past American borders?
Here is my opinion, (crypto specifically) They have no jurisdiction past American borders so the effect is limited if any. In my opinion these negative rulings will only stifle any American innovation and growth of the sector. It actually just opens doors for other countries to take advantage of it as crypto is global. Please give me your thoughts on this down bellow.
Special Guest Appearance George Carlin
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Winning or losing a trade depends on your state of mindHello?
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(DXY chart)
The 102.034-105.873 section is a volatility section, and depending on which direction you deviate from this section, the movement of the investment market is expected to change.
Therefore, if it falls below 102.034, the investment market is expected to revitalize.
Otherwise, if it rises above 105.873, the investment market is likely to enter a recession.
Where do you think DXY is heading right now?
My thoughts are that I don't know the direction yet, but I think it's right.
I believe that investment and trading are determined to fail even before investing or trading according to one's psychological state.
The moment you invest or trade with a nervous mind or excitement, you will suffer from more psychological conflicts, so there is a high possibility that you will not get a big return or the transaction will fail in the end.
So, if your mind is currently in a state of nervousness, anxiety, excitement, etc., you should stop trading and observe the situation.
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(SPX500USD chart)
Looking at the 1D chart, it shows a rise to the resistance area of 4255.2-4310.8.
Therefore, the key is whether or not you can ascend with support in this section.
Looking at the 1M chart, the HA-High indicator on the 1M chart is long at 4419.8.
Therefore, it is necessary to check whether it is supported in the 4310.8-4588.6 section.
"So, what are you going to do?" you may ask.
You yourself already know the answer.
As I said in the description of the DXY chart, you have already made your own conclusions.
However, it is only a state in which it has not been decided whether to proceed with the current transaction or to wait according to the decision.
why? I would like you to think about whether you wrote down the 4255.2-4310.8 section as a resistance section.
The biggest reason I said it was a resistance zone is because I think that if it rises above this zone, it is highly likely to surge.
The reason why it is likely to surge is because it touched this section in August 2022, the previous high, and showed a decline.
Therefore, if it rises above this range, it is highly likely that you will proceed with the purchase without checking whether it is supported.
(1D chart)
(1W chart)
(1M chart)
Therefore, when looking at charts, you should look at the 1M chart first, then the 1W chart, then the 1D chart, not the 1D chart and then the 1M chart.
That way, you will be able to hold the overall picture of the chart in your mind, which will help you prevent your psychology from being shaken by small waves.
However, most of them don't do that, and by looking at the time frame chart they are trading first, their psychological state is agitated by small fluctuations even before making a trading strategy, so there is a high possibility of making a trading strategy in the wrong direction.
So, regardless of your investment style, that is, the investment period, you are shaken by small fluctuations, so you are sensitive to the current movement even though it is a mid- to long-term investment.
In the case of day tradng or short-term trading, there is no need to see a big trend.
If you plan to conduct day trading or short-term trading, but create a trading strategy based on the big trend, there is a possibility that you may not be able to stop loss when you should stop or sell when you need to split.
This is the cause of fatal mistakes when conducting day trading or short-term trading.
Therefore, you should create a trading strategy based on your own investment style, i.e. a time frame chart that fits your investment period.
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(NAS100USD chart)
It is approaching the 14710.6-15090.3 area, an important support and resistance zone.
Therefore, the key is whether you can ascend to this section and be supported.
Looking at the 1M chart, you can see why the 14710.6-15090.3 area is an important support and resistance zone.
As you approach what I'm talking about as this important segment, those waiting to trade are likely to be in a very excited state.
Because, once it rises above this important range, you start to think that you can get a bigger return by buying it at a lower price because you think it's likely to show a big uptrend.
Therefore, there may be cases in which you proceed to buy before you can confirm whether you are supported or resisted by rising to the important zone, that is, the support and resistance zone.
It is tedious to check whether you are supported or resisted, and since psychological agitation occurs hundreds of times a day, your psychological burden will increase enormously.
This increase in psychological burden makes it impossible to wait until it rises, which is the main cause of not obtaining large profits or increasing losses.
Therefore, you must check whether you are supported or resisted by entering the important section where you must check the support and resistance section.
Even if you buy at a higher price, if your psychological state is stable, you can get a bigger profit when you see a big rise.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own.
** This is a chart created with my know-how.
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Positive NFP Data for the USDNFP May 2023 - 339,000 jobs have been created.
While this sounds like a good thing, it’s also a bad thing. The entire point of the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates was to ‘slow down inflation’ by making people lose their jobs, in turn leaving them with less disposable income to flood back into the economy.
What this NFP data shows is that the current interest rate hikes aren’t working, so this will now be another excuse for the Federal Reserve (really the US government) to be more aggressive with rate hikes, which will end up destroying the economy. This’ll create higher unemployment rates, higher mortgage rates (people default & lose their homes) & higher poverty. This’ll have a knock on effect on the global economy such as the U.K.
World Economic Forum - “You Will Own Nothing & Be Happy”
The US Treasury cash rebuild; volmageddon or a nothing burger
While Congress still needs to pass the debt limit agreement, the debate in the market has shifted to the need for the US Treasury Department (UST) to rapidly rebuild its depleted cash levels.
We have no understanding of the timetable, but already the debate is whether the significant level of Treasury bill issuance will result in a major headwind for global financial markets, while others believe this is pure hype.
Some are contrasting what lies ahead as a massive liquidity withdrawal from financial markets – Quantitative Tightening (QT) on steroids – where we will essentially see USD liquidity sucked out of the system.
The process of raising cash levels
To raise and rebuild its now low cash balances, the US Treasury Department (UST) will look to issue around $1.3t of US T-bills over the following 12 months. Around $700b of this T-bill issuance will be fast-tracked, tapping up the market within a matter of months, with the private sector expected to buy what the Treasury is selling.
US Treasury bills (‘T-bills’) are high-quality debt instruments which have a maturity of less than 12 months.
With the US Treasury replenishing its cash balances it would be able to make ongoing payments and meet its obligations. Plus they will keep its additional capital on the Fed’s balance sheet (under the Treasury General Account or ‘TGA’) for future payments.
The effect on markets
The concern in the market is around the notion of a “liquidity drain” – whereby the UST remove such staggering levels of liquidity out of the system, in a short period, that we see bank funding costs heading markedly higher and USD rates rising to highly concerning levels. Could this dynamic cause renewed concerns in the US regional banks?
Drilling into the theme - the potential stress in markets really comes down to who exactly absorbs the issuance, as this is key in determining the potential impact on system liquidity.
A drawdown in RRP balances
US money market funds (MMF) have historically been the big buyers of T-bill issuance and could again play a key role in supporting the USTs quest to recapitalize. Money funds currently have near-exclusive access to the Fed’s Reverse Repo facility or ‘RRP’ (TradingView code – RRPONTSYD), and have around $2.2t parked there, where they get 5.05% (annualized) risk-free.
If US T-bills are issued to the public at a yield close to the RRP rate (of 5.05%), then there’s a case that we see money funds withdrawing a sizeable level of holdings from the RRP facility and supporting the US T-bill issuance.
It is widely considered that risk assets (e.g. equities) would not be impacted when a large percentage of the USTs issuance is funded by RRP balances. In fact, some are saying this could be a net positive given there has been a scarcity of high-quality T-bills in the system of late.
A drain in bank reserves would be more problematic for markets
Banks are required to hold a level of reserves as a percentage of their deposit base. However, banks/depository institutions often hold reserves in excess of their regulatory requirements - this can be highly advantageous should they have to meet increasing deposit withdrawals.
Instead of keeping these excess reserves (cash equivalent) on their balance sheet, they can be offered to the Fed, where since 2008 they will receive interest paid at 5.15% (annualized) through the Fed’s IORB facility (Interest on Reserve Balances - TV code: WRBWFRBL).
The RRP and IORB spread guides overnight lending rates
With the RRP rate currently at 5.05% and IORB paid at 5.15% this spread represents the corridor by which the fed funds effective rate (EFFR) – the rate at which banks will borrow/lend cash overnight – trades. This is the fundamentals of how the Fed sets monetary policy and to date, it has been very effective.
The concern from some is where money funds have less involvement in supporting UST T-bill issuance - resulting in a comparatively low RRP drawdown – with a large percentage of the issuance supported by a drain of bank reserves.
Some strategists estimate that of this potential $700b in near-term T-bill issuance around $400b to $500b of this will be funded by the liquidation of bank reserves balances. That could the scenario where we could – in theory - see higher market volatility.
It’s really about a scarcity of reserves
There are currently $3.28t of excess bank reserves parked on the Fed’s balance sheet - so if we were to see a $500b drawdown in reserves then this balance would fall quite rapidly to around $2.8t. This is important because many feel the Lowest Comfortable Level of Reserve (LCLoR) that must be in the financial system is between $2.5t and $2.2t.
Interestingly, some feel an aggressive decline in reserves would be a headwind for risk assets – if we look at the regression between reserves and S&P500 futures, we can see an R^2 of 0.79. In effect, 79% of the variance in US equity futures can be explained by reserves – statistically, it’s very meaningful.
So this injects some credence to the idea that reserve drawdown could be a short-term headwind for risk. However, where this becomes interesting, and where we would see true stress in the system is through monitoring the spread between the Fed’s effective rate (TradingView Code: EFFR) and upper bound of the rates channel and Interest paid on Reserve Balances (on TradingView code: IORB).
Currently, this spread sits at -7bp, but if we were to see the fed funds effective rate (EFFR) moving to the top of this corridor and even trading at a premium to IORB, it’s at this point where the market is telling us that we’re moving closer to a scarcity of reserves in the system.
This is where things would be far more prone to breaking, and the Fed will need to act swiftly.
When EFFR trades at a premium to IORB it essentially portrays that the money market channels are breaking and demand for short-term loans is becoming increasingly inelastic – subsequently, those in need of short-term loans will continue to pay ever higher prices.
Of course, this may not play out. We may see reserves falling precipitously and risk assets and the USD show no relationship at all to this dynamic. However, it is a risk, and we need to recognise the triggers and be open to the possibility it does cause a higher volatility regime, especially given it comes at a time when EU banks are having to pay back E500b of TLRO loans to the ECB.
Price is true, but I will be the moves in the KRE ETF (US regional bank ETF), as well as watching the EFFR- IORB spread as this could be far more important for the USD and signs of increased risks in the financial system.
💲Learn DXY - US. Dollar Index
✅Why Be Interested?
The strong dollar has been getting a lot of attention lately. Some U.S. companies are blaming the strong U.S. dollar for lackluster earnings, while economists say it's helping the Federal Reserve’s ongoing fight against high inflation.
But how do you know when the dollar is strong or weak? That’s the job of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
☑️What Is the U.S. Dollar Index?
The U.S. Dollar Index is a market index benchmark used to measure the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other widely-traded international currencies.
The Federal Reserve established the dollar index in 1973 to track the value of the U.S. dollar. Two years earlier, President Richard Nixon had abandoned the gold standard, which allowed the value of the dollar to float freely in foreign exchange (forex) markets.
Since 1985, the dollar index has been calculated and maintained by Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).
☑️The Dollar Index History and Makeup
The formula for calculating the value of the U.S. Dollar Index includes the dollar’s relative value compared to a basket of foreign currencies. Initially, it included the Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, Swiss franc, West German mark, French franc, Italian lira, Dutch guilder, and Belgian franc.
Following the creation of the euro in 1999, the number of currencies was reduced and the formula for the dollar index was adjusted. Today, the basket includes just six currencies: the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British pound (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK) and Swiss franc (CHF).
✅How Is the U.S. Dollar Index Used?
The USDX allows traders and investors to monitor the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar relative to the six currencies included into the index's basket.
Investors also use the dollar index as a litmus test for U.S. economic performance, particularly when it comes to imports and exports. The more goods the U.S. exports, the more international demand there is for U.S. dollars to purchase those goods. When demand for the dollar is high, USDX rises.
☑️Dollar Index Shortcomings:
The weightings of the currencies used to calculate the index were based on the United States’ biggest trading partners in the 1970s.
As a result, its calculation doesn't include emerging market currencies, like the Mexican Peso (MXN) or commodity currencies. It also doesn't include China’s renminbi (CNY), even though China is now the largest U.S. trading partner by a wide margin.
Therefore, the index may be less useful as an economic measure than in previous decades.
✅What Makes the U.S. Dollar Strong?
A combination of higher inflation, the Fed's aggressive tightening campaign and a global search for yield have all contributed to the strong dollar.
A strong dollar means other global currencies have been relatively weak, which exacerbates inflationary pressures and financial market volatility.
📍In Conclusion:
The Dollar Index can be used as a gauge of the Dollar strength or weakness, and it’s futures can be used to profit form Dollar moves without betting on any individual Dollar currency pair which provides diversification. However, the Index is somewhat outdated which needs to be accounted for when using it.
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Will the U.S. default on their debt?eather the US default on their debt or raise their debt ceiling; it’s a bad thing either way for the US Dollar & economy;
US DEFAULTS🩸:
⭕️They fall into a deep recession
⭕️Roughly 7.8 million jobs will be lost
⭕️Unemployment rate doubles to 8%
⭕️Crime rate/poverty increases
⭕️Stocks & Bonds will be sold off/401(K) effected. Financial markets crash
⭕️Social security payments delayed
US RAISES DEBT CEILING💸:
⭕️More money printed out of thin air
⭕️Inflation sores even higher
⭕️Interest Rates keeping getting hiked higher
⭕️More mortgage defaults, so more homes get seized
⭕️Banks hand out less personal/business loans, along with mortgages
⭕️USD strengthens, which is a bad thing as more countries will refuse to do business with them
⭕️More bank failures
As a result, we will see an outflow of institutional investments away from equities, with an inflow of investments into commodities like Gold & Silver.
HOW IMPORTANT IS TIME IN THE FOREX MARKETS 💡⏰📊HELLO EVERYONE
HOPE EVERYONE IS DOING GOOD ITS MONDAY LOTS OF OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD.
JUST SOMETHING ON TIMING IN THE MARKERT
📈📉📊⌚⏰⏱⏲
Every chart in trading has two axis ie. TIME & PRICE.
The most ignored of this two axis is TIME, now how important is time in trading. Are there some periods during the day that are most volatile than others of cause we all know NEW-YORK session will definitely be more volatile than ASIA or even LONDON sometimes, we know news releases are highly volatile and sessions opens normally see most spikes.
If this is the case why is TIME so underrated in trading or less incorporated in trading.
If you are starting out your Journey in trading you most likely have already invested in patterns ,support & resistance and everything price in the market in excitement watching various economic calendars and trade voraciously on every release of data, viewing the markets 24 hours a day, five days a week. Understanding time will remove this edge to be on charts all day long worse even seeing things that are just not there preventing unnecessary loses.
Unlike Wall Street, which runs on regular business hours, the forex market runs on the normal business hours of four different parts of the world and their respective time zones, which means trading lasts all day and night.
But understanding where you are in this Business will limit a lot of errors and back testing with Time will give you a perception of when your trades take off and what are your High success rate sessions, if you are scalping what are your range bound sessions, what ever type of trader you are time is a crucial aspect in trading.
So according to investopedia When only one market is open, currency pairs tend to get locked in a tight pip spread of roughly 30 pips of movement. Two markets opening at once can easily see movement north of 70 pips, particularly when big news is released.
So understanding this will help in reaching targets timely and reduces anxiety of being range bound in red before your trade takes you out and goes in your direction 😀
Overlaps in Forex Trading Sessions
The most traded & most popular will have to be the U.S./London (8 am. to noon NY TIME): This is the heaviest overlap within the markets with More than 70% of all trades happening when these markets overlap because of moves seen within this markets.
The we have the Sydney/Tokyo (2 am to 4 am NY TIME): This time period is not as volatile as the U.S./London overlap, but it still offers a chance to trade in a period of higher pip fluctuation, and certain pairs tend to be volatile during this certainly especially the once aligned with the sessions, tends to also be great for scalpers as most are range bound during this sessions and scalps can dominate during this sessions without unforeseen spikes 😁
• Last but definitely not least London/Tokyo (3 am to 4 am NY time) This overlap sees the least amount of action of the three because of the time (most U.S.-based traders won't be awake at this time), and the one-hour overlap gives little opportunity to watch large pip changes occur.
But this is the sessions that creates some important key levels to plan the day and execution of trades so no session is less important than the other the out come of each sessions lies with us as traders
• The forex market runs on the normal business hours of four different parts of the world and their respective time zones.
• The U.S./London markets overlap (8 a.m. to noon EST) has the heaviest volume of trading and is best for trading opportunities.
• The Sydney/Tokyo markets overlap (2 a.m. to 4 a.m.) is not as volatile as the U.S./London overlap, but it still offers opportunities
Then we have news Releases that are also based on time, if your strategy is based on capitalizing on news releases you are most likely aware of time and its importance in once trading.
I don't want this to be long so basically what I am saying is you have two axis on a chart, why are you only looking at the price axis, time has to come into playing some how 🤔
Invest in time to limit wasting your time on the charts...
Hope you enjoy this
Leave a comment & like for more atticles like this
REFEREMCES.
Investopedia
The Best Times to Trade the Forex Markets ARTICLE
Volutrades
Timing Is Everything: The Best Times to (and Not to) Trade Forex ARTICLE
ICT SMART MONEY CONCEPTS By THE PROP TRADER
ICT SMART MONEY CONCEPTS KILLZONES
IF THIS ARTICLE ASSISTS IN ANY WAY OR IF YOU LIKE THIS ONE
SMASH THAT LIKE BUTTON & LEAVE A COMMENT.
ALWAYS APPRECIATED
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* Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
| * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - I TAKE MY TRADES ON A INTRA DAY SESSIONS BASIS THIS IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE TO EXCECUTE ❤
LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
PMI Data & How it Effects DXYJust to summarise quickly what the ‘Purchasing Manager Index’ is, it’s a monthly data release by the ISM. PMI data is based on 5 survey areas: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier delivery & employment.
PMI data ranges from 0-100. A PMI reading ABOVE 50 represents expansion in the economy. Whereas, a reading BELOW 50 represents contraction.
Below is the PMI data for March 2023, which came in at 47.7 which shows the economy is contracting. Now to show the importance of this, let me show you the last few times the PMI dropped below 50👇🏻
2008 - The Financial Market Crash🩸
Early 1980’s - Sky High Inflation🩸
Mid 1980’s - Recession which left unemployment at 7.5%. The recession was caused by tight monetary policy from the government , in an ‘effort’ to fight high inflation🩸
The Ten Fundamental Objectives of the Federal ReserveIntroduction
The Federal Reserve System, often referred to as "the Fed," was established in 1913 in response to a series of banking panics. As the central banking institution of the United States, it plays a crucial role in maintaining the stability and integrity of the nation's monetary and financial systems. This essay explores the ten fundamental objectives of the Federal Reserve, which include maintaining price stability, promoting full employment, and ensuring a stable financial system, among others.
1. Price Stability
The primary objective of the Federal Reserve is to maintain price stability, which refers to a low and stable rate of inflation. By managing inflation, the Fed helps to preserve the purchasing power of money, ensuring that consumers and businesses can make informed decisions regarding spending, saving, and investment.
2. Maximum Sustainable Employment
Another key objective of the Federal Reserve is to promote maximum sustainable employment, also known as full employment. This means providing enough job opportunities for all individuals who are willing and able to work, while minimizing the rate of unemployment. By promoting full employment, the Fed contributes to overall economic growth and well-being.
3. Moderate Long-Term Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve aims to maintain moderate long-term interest rates, which are essential for economic growth and stability. By controlling short-term interest rates, the Fed can indirectly influence long-term rates, thereby encouraging borrowing, investment, and consumption.
4. Financial System Stability
One of the most critical objectives of the Federal Reserve is ensuring the stability of the financial system, which involves monitoring and regulating financial institutions, as well as identifying and addressing potential risks. By maintaining a stable financial system, the Fed helps to prevent crises and protect the economy from shocks.
5. Efficient Payment and Settlement System
The Federal Reserve is responsible for managing the nation's payment and settlement systems, which include check clearing, electronic funds transfers, and automated clearinghouse operations. By providing these services efficiently and securely, the Fed ensures that financial transactions occur smoothly, promoting confidence in the banking system.
6. Consumer Protection
Another important objective of the Federal Reserve is to protect consumers by enforcing federal consumer protection laws and regulations. This includes monitoring financial institutions for compliance, addressing consumer complaints, and providing education and resources to help consumers make informed financial decisions.
7. Supervision and Regulation
The Federal Reserve plays a vital role in supervising and regulating financial institutions to ensure their safety, soundness, and compliance with laws and regulations. This oversight helps to maintain a stable and resilient financial system, while also protecting consumers and investors.
8. Community Development
The Federal Reserve is committed to promoting community development by supporting initiatives that address issues such as affordable housing, small business development, and workforce development. This objective aims to foster economic growth and improve the quality of life in communities across the country.
9. Economic Research and Analysis
The Federal Reserve conducts extensive research and analysis to better understand the U.S. economy, as well as the global economy. This research informs the Fed's monetary policy decisions and helps it to fulfill its other objectives, such as promoting maximum employment and maintaining stable prices.
10. International Financial Cooperation
Finally, the Federal Reserve cooperates with other central banks and international financial institutions to promote global economic stability and financial system resilience. This collaboration allows the Fed to share information, resources, and expertise, ultimately benefiting the U.S. economy.
Conclusion
The Federal Reserve plays a pivotal role in the U.S. economy by pursuing ten fundamental objectives, which range from maintaining price stability to promoting international financial cooperation. By fulfilling these objectives, the Fed ensures the stability and growth of the U.S. economy, while also fostering a resilient and efficient global financial system.
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What exactly is FOMC? What is FOMC, and what does it do?
FOMC stands for Federal Open Market Committee. It's a group of people who work for the US government and makes decisions about the country's money. They decide how much money should be in circulation and how much it should cost to borrow money.
How does FOMC affect the forex market?
FOMC's decisions can affect the forex market because they can change the value of the US dollar compared to other currencies. For example, suppose FOMC raises interest rates. In that case, it can make the US dollar more attractive than other currencies, increasing the exchange rate. If they lower interest rates, it can make the US dollar less attractive, which can decrease the exchange rate.
What is the FOMC statement, and why is it essential for the forex market?
The FOMC statement is a document that FOMC releases after each meeting. It explains what the FOMC members talked about and what they decided to do with interest rates and the economy. This statement is essential for the forex market because it helps investors and traders decide what to do with their money. They might buy or sell different currencies based on the FOMC statement.
How does FOMC affect currency exchange rates?
FOMC can affect currency exchange rates by changing the value of the US dollar compared to other currencies. If FOMC raises interest rates, it can make the US dollar more attractive than other currencies, increasing the exchange rate. If they lower interest rates, it can make the US dollar less attractive, which can decrease the exchange rate.
Why do traders pay attention to FOMC meetings?
Traders pay attention to FOMC meetings and the FOMC statement because it can give them an idea of what might happen to the US dollar and other currencies. They might make trades based on what they think will happen after the FOMC meeting. For example, if they believe the FOMC will raise interest rates, they might buy US dollars because they think the exchange rate will increase.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER
The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas.
We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades.
Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks.
OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
How FED / ECB Interest rates set trendsWatch how interest rates decisions set trends in EURUSD and Dollar Index impacting the entire forex market.
I marked all the previous interest hike decisions by FED and ECB.
2023 EURUSD bullish reversal was triggerred by ECB starting to raise iterest rates (after EUR hit the alarming 1.00 level). EUR might continue bullish until next tow hikes. From what I read ECB does not plan to hike rates for the rest of the year after May meeting (rates will stay at 4), so it is likely to trigger bearish reversal from May.
Likelwise, 2020 EUR bullish ride (and dollar weakness) was triggerred by FED lowering interest rates (in March 2020) after COVID hit.
FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.
Good luck in your trading! God bless!
💲Learn DXY - US. Dollar Index
✅Why Be Interested?
The strong dollar has been getting a lot of attention lately. Some U.S. companies are blaming the strong U.S. dollar for lackluster earnings, while economists say it's helping the Federal Reserve’s ongoing fight against high inflation.
But how do you know when the dollar is strong or weak? That’s the job of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
☑️What Is the U.S. Dollar Index?
The U.S. Dollar Index is a market index benchmark used to measure the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other widely-traded international currencies.
The Federal Reserve established the dollar index in 1973 to track the value of the U.S. dollar. Two years earlier, President Richard Nixon had abandoned the gold standard, which allowed the value of the dollar to float freely in foreign exchange (forex) markets.
Since 1985, the dollar index has been calculated and maintained by Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).
☑️The Dollar Index History and Makeup
The formula for calculating the value of the U.S. Dollar Index includes the dollar’s relative value compared to a basket of foreign currencies. Initially, it included the Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, Swiss franc, West German mark, French franc, Italian lira, Dutch guilder, and Belgian franc.
Following the creation of the euro in 1999, the number of currencies was reduced and the formula for the dollar index was adjusted. Today, the basket includes just six currencies: the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British pound (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK) and Swiss franc (CHF).
✅How Is the U.S. Dollar Index Used?
The USDX allows traders and investors to monitor the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar relative to the six currencies included into the index's basket.
Investors also use the dollar index as a litmus test for U.S. economic performance, particularly when it comes to imports and exports. The more goods the U.S. exports, the more international demand there is for U.S. dollars to purchase those goods. When demand for the dollar is high, USDX rises.
☑️Dollar Index Shortcomings:
The weightings of the currencies used to calculate the index were based on the United States’ biggest trading partners in the 1970s.
As a result, its calculation doesn't include emerging market currencies, like the Mexican Peso (MXN) or commodity currencies. It also doesn't include China’s renminbi (CNY), even though China is now the largest U.S. trading partner by a wide margin.
Therefore, the index may be less useful as an economic measure than in previous decades.
✅What Makes the U.S. Dollar Strong?
A combination of higher inflation, the Fed's aggressive tightening campaign and a global search for yield have all contributed to the strong dollar.
A strong dollar means other global currencies have been relatively weak, which exacerbates inflationary pressures and financial market volatility.
📍In Conclusion:
The Dollar Index can be used as a gauge of the Dollar strength or weakness, and it’s futures can be used to profit form Dollar moves without betting on any individual Dollar currency pair which provides diversification. However, the Index is somewhat outdated which needs to be accounted for when using it.
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WHAT IS A PIP AND HOW TO MEASURE IT?WHAT IS A PIP?
The pips is the unit with which we measure the price movement of a pair.
Example: If the USD/MXN pair is used. If the dollar is worth 20.7 and rises to 20.8, it is said to rise to 1 cent but in FOREX it is not measured with cents, it is measured with pips.
The price of the USD/MXN chart has 3 extra decimal places 20.8 000 those 3 extra decimal places are what the pips are measured with: the pip is the fourth number after the point . If the price changes from 20.8100 to 20.80101 the price moves 1 pips, if the price moves from 20.80100 to 20.80110 the price moves 10 pips and if the price moves from 20.80100 to 20.80300 the price moves 200 pips.
Pips are calculated differently depending on the pair, pairs with Japanese YEN and pairs WITHOUT Japanese YEN
PAIRS WITH YEN
November FOMC preview – where the risk to markets resides Time – 3 Nov 5am AEDT / 6PM GMT (Jay Powell speaks at 05:30 AEDT)
Central bank meetings are just so important to sentiment and market structure – when we’re trading a major market theme, such as inflation and rising interest rates, this is the market’s chance to mark-to-market policy changes and how the collective in the bank guide our expectations for future meetings ahead.
For traders, notably for those who have exposures sensitive to policy changes, they simply must assess the potential for big volatility, which could affect their positions – our job is to recognise the propensity for sizeable movement, the skew in the outcome distribution and if our stop placement is too close/far from the market.
Do we reduce, exit or in some cases even initiate positions?
For others, the central bank meeting will shape the trading environment and the market structure they work in - not just for that trading session, but for the following days ahead.
Consider day traders who work within a specific timeframe and need to assess if price action constitutes a trending day, and therefore they look more closely at momentum strategies. Or is it more of a choppy, sideways, range-bound day, and therefore looking more readily at intra-day mean reversion strategies?
‘Environment recognition’ is key for day traders and scalpers and edge comes from being able to identify the regime we’re in – perhaps through the application of market profile, VWAP, Bollinger Band strategies (to name a few), as well as good old fashion price action.
An overview of the November FOMC meeting
As we know event risk seldom gets more important than an FOMC meeting, so this is a risk we need to manage. Trading these tier 1 events takes skill like no other – we must react to the statement, but then 30 minutes later we react to individual words and nuance in the press conference from chair Jay Powell. It’s always the high frequency algo’s that recognise the keywords first and we mortals are left trying to react according.
Even once the presser has finished and the dust has settled, quite often we see the ensuing Fed members speaking over the coming week giving their own personal view, and often when we’ve seen violent moves on the day, they will walk back any extreme reaction. The first move is not always the right move.
To some, this lively backdrop, especially when we consider reduced liquidity can be nirvana-type conditions. To others, this is the environment where they have no edge and see it best to stand aside and let price do its thing.
A hawkish ‘step down’ on the cards
We’ve been treated to a roller coaster in Fed ‘pivot’ expectations - Ranging from a WSJ article of an impending ‘step down’ in the pace of hikes starting at the December meeting. To dovish turns from the RBA, ECB and BoC – however, the Fed are their own boss and they see US labour market data that has been solid (as donated by the Employment Cost Index and JOLTS report) – US 5-year inflation expectations are rising and next week’s US core CPI print will likely be close to unchanged at 6.6% YoY - it seems highly unlikely that the Fed will want to promote a positive reaction in risky assets, and the risks to markets in my mind are skewed to a hawkish reaction – equity up, bond yields and the USD lower.
In the Fed’s view, putting the US into a recession is still a lesser evil than not tackling entrenched price pressures.
While traders would fall off their chair if the Fed didn’t hike by 75bp at this meeting, it’s the guidance for future meetings which is where we get a reaction in markets.
We are likely to hear that the pace of hikes in the future will fall to a more conventional pace – this is the ‘step down’ many have focused on. But this narrative will be accompanied by strong conditionality, and the statement will be about giving the Fed maximum flexibility and optionality for the December meeting – that call will be fully data-dependent.
So, consider there is a lot of information between now and the 14 December FOMC meeting – we have 2 non-farm payrolls reports, the Oct CPI print (11 Oct) and the midterm elections. It’s no wonder the market is pricing 62bp of hikes for that meeting and hedging their bets of a 50 or 75bp hike – it's this pricing for the Dec FOMC meeting which I think is key for markets.
Rates Review – we see market pricing for the Nov FOMC meeting at 75bp – then a step to 62bp in the Dec meeting.
The holy trinity – the three markets to drive cross-asset volatility
Pricing for the December FOMC meeting
So part of the reaction will be seen in the pricing for the Dec FOMC meeting which currently sits at 4.41% – traders can see this on TradingView by typing ‘100-ZQF2023’ into the navigator. A dovish reaction would be to see this headed below 4.4%, where we would expect the USD to sell off and gold and equities to rally. A push towards 4.50% would see USDJPY push towards 150 and EURUSD through 0.9800.
Terminal fed funds rates pricing
We also look at the terminal rates pricing – this is the peak of market expectations for where the Fed can take rates, which currently sit in the May to June 2023 period at 5% – we can type in ‘100-ZQK2023’ into the navigator. A firm break above 5% would send risk lower.
US 2-year Treasury
I also look at US real rates and 2yr Treasuries (US02Y) closely as a driver for risk assets – If yields rise then we should see the NAS100 and gold fall and the USD spike, especially if we take out the 21 Oct high of 4.63% – conversely if yields fall/price rise then the USD will likely fall.
As always around key events, the reaction in markets is a function of:
• The outcome vs Expectations
• Positioning
• Hedging activity
• Liquidity
My own view is the risks are skewed for a hawkish reaction – USD higher, but I will recognise the moves in rates suggests the market is largely positioned for this outcome.
Trading Psychology (Part 1)A philosophy I engage in when trading the markets
- I am not self-employed as a trader.
- The market is my boss and my trades are my employees.
- I merely manage those employees.
Traders often have to think fast and make quick decisions, darting in and out of positions on short notice.
To accomplish this, you need a certain presence of mind. You need the discipline to stick with your own trading plans and know when to book profits and losses. Emotions simply can't get in the way.
It’s NOT that winning traders formulate better trading strategies
It’s NOT that winning traders are smarter
It’s NOT that winning traders do better market analysis
One personal characteristic that almost all winning traders share is that of self-confidence .
Winning traders possess a firm, basic belief in their ability to BE winning traders.
GOLD MTF Wave stochastic example for trend reverseSometimes you don't need to count all of the Elliott Waves and pinpointing where the last Impulse started is enough to located the proper Time frame to look for that wave ending on the MTF. in this case the 1 month chart was the relative Time frame for the last impulse upwards (see where I wrote MTF stoch wave start) and you can see that from the Stoch being oversold on all time frames. then notice how the green (HTF) starts curving down at the end with a tap from blue and gray as a potential local top to exit at.. this is often all you need to trade a simple wave without too much complication. Please do not hesitate to ask any questions