OIL GOLD RUSSEL DXY6.5.20 Multiple markets. Examples of how taking price action into account saves money.
J-DXY
Just some entries. Updates to comehave yet to go over gold stocks so i will just post it as its own idea later
PETER SCHIFF VS JEFF SNIDER!THIS POST WILL HELP YOU UNDERSTAND THE COMPETING VIEW POINTS ON THE FUTURE PERFORMANCE OF THE U.S. DOLLAR RELATIVE TO OTHER CURRENCIES!
JEFF SNIDER'S POSITION ON THE DOLLAR:
THE U.S. DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE OF A SHORTAGE OF DOLLARS WORLDWIDE TO CONDUCT GLOBAL TRADE IN, DUE TO THE FED'S INABILITY TO TRULY SATISFY DEMAND FOR U$Ds, AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS LONG AS FOREIGN CURRENCIES ARE SOLD TO BUY U$Ds.
PETER SCHIFF'S POSITION ON THE DOLLAR:
THE U.S. DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE OF AN IRRATIONAL FAITH IN THE U.S. ECONOMY BY FOREIGNERS AND THE WILLINGNESS OF PRODUCTIVE ECONOMIES WORLDWIDE TO USE AND ACCEPT PRINTED U.S. DOLLARS IN GLOBAL TRADE, SUBSIDIZING THE CONSUMPTION AND TRADE DEFICIT OF THE U.S.
JEFF SNIDER'S POSITION ON U.S. TREASURIES:
THE U.S. GOVERNMENT BOND MARKET HAS BEEN BID HIGHER FOR DECADES AS U.S. TREASURIES PROVIDE THE SAFEST SOURCE OF U$Ds AND ARE THE MOST ACCEPTED FORM OF COLLATERAL FOR U$D LEVERAGE. IF U$D LIQUIDITY BECOMES CONSTRAINED ENOUGH WORLDWIDE, A SELL-OFF IN THE GLOBAL U.S. TREASURY MARKET CAN OCCUR AS THEY ARE SOLD FOR THE IMMEDIATELY NEEDED U$Ds, RAISING INTEREST RATES THROUGHOUT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE ECONOMY.
PETER SCHFF'S POSITION ON U.S. TREASURIES:
THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S ARTIFICIAL SUPPRESSION OF INTEREST RATES SINCE THE 1990's THROUGH QE , COUPLED WITH THE USE OF U$Ds IN GLOBAL TRADE AND THE IRRATIONAL FAITH BY FOREIGNERS THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE COULD SHRINK ITS BALANCE SHEET AND NORMALIZE INTEREST RATES HAS LED TO FOREIGN CAPITAL BIDDING UP THE PRICE OF U.S. GOVERNMENT BONDS. ONCE THAT FAITH IN THE DOLLAR'S SCARCITY IS DIMINISHED AND PRODUCTIVE ECONOMIES WORLDWIDE REFUSE TO HOLD/ACCEPT U$Ds AND SUBSIDIZE AMERICAN CONSUMPTION, U.S. TREASURIES WILL BE SOLD-OFF, RAISING INTEREST RATES THROUGHOUT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE ECONOMY.
JEFF SNIDER'S VIEW ON THE FUTURE OF THE DOLLAR:
AS LONG AS THE FEDERAL RESERVE FAILS TO ADDRESS THE COMPLEX NEED FOR U$Ds AND AS LONG AS THE U$D REMAINS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY, DEMAND WILL OUTPACE SUPPLY, AND THE U$D WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AGAINST OTHER CURRENCIES UNTIL A CULMINATION OF DEFAULTS AND RESTRUCTURING RAVAGES THE COUNTRIES WITH THE MOST SEVERE LACK OF U$Ds, SENDING THE U$D SKY HIGH, LEADING TO AN ABANDONMENT OF THE U$D AS WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY.
PETER SCHIFF'S VIEW ON THE FUTURE OF THE DOLLAR:
ONCE PRODUCTIVE COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE BECOME DISILLUSIONED WITH THE AMOUNT OF EASILY CREATED U$Ds CHASING PRICES, THE APPETITE TO ACCEPT THOSE U$Ds IN EXCHANGE FOR GOODS/SERVICES AT CURRENT PRICES WILL DIMINISH, ALONG WITH THE DESIRE TO HOLD U$Ds, U.S. ASSETS AND U.S. TREASURIES. ONCE U$Ds AND U$Ds OBTAINED THROUGH THE SALE OF U.S. ASSETS AND U.S. TREASURIES ARE SOLD FOR OTHER CURRENCIES, THE U$D WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY, FURTHER INCREASING THE PRICES OF IMPORTED GOODS/SERVICES, SENDING THE U$D INTO AN INFLATIONARY SPIRAL, MARKING ITS END AS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY. IN THIS CASE, IF THE FEDERAL RESERVE MONETIZED THE SOLD U.S. TREASURIES TO PREVENT INTEREST RATES FROM RISING, THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO HYPERINFLATION.
-THE NOTES ON THE CHART REFLECT KEY EVENTS THAT MARKED THE PEAK IN THE U$D's EXCHANGE RATE VS OTHER CURRENCIES
DXY OILDXY OIL ( Part 1 ) I don't think it is a curse if you know more about the market, however, it adds more variables... with the potential of adding more stress. I would like to talk about that here. Unfortunately, since I don't always get directly to the point, there will need to be a Part 2.
Update - My post April 2, 2020, "Bitcoin & Big Oil" Update - My post April 2, 2020, "Bitcoin & Big Oil" . First point of interest - Using MACD of USOIL (WTI) point before precipitous decline. See what happened when bitcoin closed month end above $365 NOV 2015 and thereafter. Notice in each case c.55% drop before rise. Bitcoin has yet to close out month above $9084.7. Second point of interest - Monthly Dollar Index if close below 98.82 (Mid point of volatility Mar 2020) see what happened to SPX when closed below 95.48 (Mid point of volatility Aug 2015) March 2016. NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
Dollar Index (DXY): current map - possible ending diagonalThe dollar index could be in the ending diagonal wave (C). Then the drop is expected
XAUUSD - M Dears,
I know most of the traders think about this chart it is a new chart, but as you can see with the attached chart you can see the old one it was 21 July 2019.
and we have mentioned the gold from that date it is bullish, and it will not be bearish till touching the resistant, and that time we want to get the confirmation of the bearish with price action.
Note: we believe the coronaviruses will start to begin to weaken, and all the markets, economies, and life will working and life gradually returns to normal.
take care and be in save.
gold dxy5.12.20 This video is the sequel to the previous video. In addition, I showed two ways to frame range boxes on the gold contract. I decided to give a closer look at the bear trap on the DXY and as I did this, I realized I had to look at a couple of time frames in order to add clarity. This was a bear trap on smaller time frame, but it is a retest of a breakout higher. It is what it is on different time frames, but it has value to do this in my opinion. As I was listening to the video before uploading, I took note of how bullish the whole pattern looks on the DXY on the daily chart... to the point that it looks likely that the price will move higher to an ABCD pattern... even though I am not a breakout buyer, and the market is still in arrange box which is the dominant behavior. If you don't understand this, I will come back and review it once we get a chance to see how the dollar plays out. The reason I bring this up is because of my conviction that higher time frames result in much more accurate assessment of the bullish or bearish nature of price action.
#DXY remains bullish#dxy seems to form a base above the curve here, and has made a triple bottom.
watching #dxy for a bullish move...
DXY - Gold negative correlationJohn Murphy in his classic on "Intermarket Analysis" writes on the dollar gold negative correlation.
Here we compared DXY - Gold correlation on daily chart in regard towards 200 day average.
If you will take closer look, you will see that in case of divergences forming, it is dollar index that usually fails.
If gold breaks resistance (being in sharp uptrend towards 2011 highs) and we do observe some sort of bullish cup and handle continuation pattern - dollar is likely to fall.
By DeMark criteria, bullish breakout on gold looks better than the one on dollar index.
On correlation cofficient, we are also observing ever decreasing divergence trend towards 200 day average.
At any case one of two should fail in uptrend:)
S&P How spot market recovery & what markets to buy & sellZones created using crossovers of Monthly 20 MA on VIX close & 20 MA of same. Like end of crash in 02 & 09 some bulls and bears think this crash will only be confirmed over when TNX closes month above 1.34. See what happened to OIL, GOLD, and DOLLAR last time (green verticals). White verticals denote VIX peak (no guarantee reached that yet). Caveat small sample size & my arbitrary choice of two key TNX levels which just appeared to make this analysis work to perfection on two previous occassions. NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
Despite helicopter money, #DXY seems to move upside ( this is not a financial advice, please consider calculating your own edge & risks in the markets )
My personal thoughts ;
- Despite the fact that FED promised to distribute unlimited USD -if necessary-, the markets will consume this USD-cash because especially in EMs and other countries there is a loss of confidence against local currencies.
- Big investors in the rest of the world ( outside US) will keep an eye on investing in US markets and buying US stocks as soon as the markets get well and move upside. That means, they will store more USD cash to catch the opportunities in the post-virus era.
- People will need cash to buy the goods and stocks will not have a meaning in a shutdown economics.
So, my personal gut-feeling says that we may see #DXY around 120 in short- to mid-term perspective.
and my curves for DXY seems to be working with a breakout of curve-zone. ( see below the related chart )
Gold bugs waiting for S&P (SPX) crossover. Gold bugs waiting for SPX (S&P) crossover. NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
EW Analysis: USD Index Slowed Down Into A CorrectionHello traders!
Today we will talk about the most interesting currency in the last month - US Dollar.
As you can see DXY made strong and impulsive recovery recently, mainly because all the assets were down due to panic across the world and also financial crisis, so investors are rather in cash now and that's why is USD so strong.
USD is currently down, but looking at the bigger picture, seems like it's just testing previous resistance area as a support here and the main reason why we are observing potential support is a three-wave a-b-c corrective decline from the highs.
As you can see, there's a chance of a triangle in the middle, which in Elliott wave theory occurs only in waves "b", "4" or "x" and in some cases even "y". So, if that's the case, then a recent decline from the highs should be corrective, because triangles cannot occur in wave "ii", which means that we should be aware of a limited downside and potential bullish reversal soon.
Of course, every analysis needs to be confirmed before you may act, so only if we see sharp and impulsive recovery back to 101 region, only then we can confirm a completed corrective decline within uptrend.
Be humble and trade smart!
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Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
review3.17.20
GOLD SILVER DXY COPPER ENPH OIL: I think it's important to know why the dollars going higher, and gold is going higher. when markets have very large corrections lower this forces commercial funds and other traders to sell the good and the bad to meet margin requirements. In 2007 or eight when the market took a nosedive gold went lower and the dollar went lower. The reason for this is that large funds will sell their goal position, and countries will sell their gold position to meet margin requirements or other requirements that are transacted in the dollar. So you may want to buy gold when the markets correcting from a high in the markets moving catastrophically lower, but you may be perplexed why the gold is going lower when everything appears to be so unstable. I misstated the description that you could hear from the fund manager of Brent Johnson of Santiago fund.
if oil is in a bear flag and makes a new low, I would be looking for a buying tail to get long. I think silver will reverse and go higher and that this is a capitulation move even though it has not impressively moved off the recent bottom. I believe the price of silver is near or below the production cost for many of the silver mines, it is ridiculously low, and gold retested at 382 and bounced off of that and looks like it might be heading higher to me. When in doubt, stay out... but you can follow the market anyway. Copper traded the pattern beautifully and came to the support; I think of Copper is one of those markets you don't have to trade frequently which means you don't have to spend all day looking at it. I think ENPH is going to move higher from here.
How Donald Trump beat Bill Gates in a game of bitcoinBill Gates V Donald Trump update. See the connection with big oil and the dollar. NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
I declare the American President Donald Trump be the winner of this bet against Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates. NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
