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J-DXY

DXY - Weekly - Multi-Timeframe Analysis Series 1Continuing with another episode of Multi-Timeframe Analysis Series 1, I'd like to break down the DXY. The DXY being weighted as follows: EUR - 57.6% JPY - 13.6 % GBP - 11.9% CAD - 9.1% SEK - 4.2% CHF - 3.6% As you may imagine, there's a lot more interest in using the DXY for a correlation / confluence tool when trading the EURUSD. The EURO equates to over half of the overall weight of the index, meaning there's a majority interest in the EUR vs USD. We can use this to our advantage, alongside the USDOLLAR INDEX, to add positive or negative trade factors when considering positions across USD pairs and commodities. Comments Looking at the Weekly timeframe gives us a different picture to that on the Monthly. We a low-test candle printing into the 20/50 EMA wave, this indicates a possible continuation to the near-term levels of 97.40 region. If we did see this push to the upside, it's change the formation on the current Monthly candle (and potentially the overall outlook shared within the Monthly breakdown). Thinking in terms of the longer time horizon, if we see a break of 97.80 I think it's possible to reach the realms of 100. Key Note The Weekly and Monthly are conflicting, which can often be a sign of the overall bias changing from beneath the surface. The smaller timeframes turn quicker, and when they align, this can change the direction gradually on the higher timeframes.
TVC:DXYEducation
by robdee4x
1
DXY - Monthly - Multi-Timeframe Analysis Series 1Continuing with another episode of Multi-Timeframe Analysis Series 1, I'd like to break down the DXY. The DXY being weighted as follows: EUR - 57.6% JPY - 13.6 % GBP - 11.9% CAD - 9.1% SEK - 4.2% CHF - 3.6% As you may imagine, there's a lot more interest in using the DXY for a correlation / confluence tool when trading the EURUSD. The EURO equates to over half of the overall weight of the index, meaning there's a majority interest in the EUR vs USD. We can use this to our advantage, alongside the USDOLLAR INDEX, to add positive or negative trade factors when considering positions across USD pairs and commodities. Comments Looking at the Monthly timeframe we appear to be stalling between the 61.8% retracement of A>B as indicated on the chart. Price is showing high test candles at this level, as well as a potential rolling double top (continuation formation). Given the circumstances of this in its current form, 94.00 could easily be on the cards as we move into the second quarter of 2019. Key Note At time of writing this, it's the current monthly candle cannot be considered an indication of direction just yet as it hasn't fully formed (being the 24th of the month).
TVC:DXYEducation
by robdee4x
3
Atomic #79. Let's go on a journey...It was the summer of 1997 in Des Moines, Iowa (my old hometown). Des Moines is a smaller city in the center of Iowa surrounded by corn fields, barns, cows, horses, pigs and baseball fields. Life was good and simple. I was 16 years old. AOL dial up was around for a few years and all you could really do was email, which was too slow and cumbersome at the time. I drove a 1980 4-door Honda Accord pushing 95 horse power that was in flawless condition with automatic windows, air-conditioning and an 8 track CD changer. It was a real panty dropper. It was the year I had my first taste of alcohol and hated it. I had my first kiss and loved that. It was the year I fell in love and then fell out. I was a successful track and field athlete at the state and national level. Most households still had multiple landlines. There was usually a common phone in the house and then my sister and parents had their own lines in their bedrooms. My friends and I would spy on my sister's phone conversations by finding an open phone in the house and ever so carefully lifting it off the jack. The key word here is carefully you see so that the person on the phone thought they were having a private conversation. If you lifted too quickly it would make a clicking noise and then.... busted!!! There was no such thing as speaker phone so you'd need to do a football huddle to hear what was being said. We still had huge phone books that would be delivered every year and yes, people actually used them. This was our version of Google at the time. I wasn't a huge gamer, but I still had my original Nintendo with Mike Tyson Punch Out, Contra and etc. High Definition didn't exist so people still looked good without make up on television. I was a huge Chicago Bulls fan and Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Phil Jackson, Dennis Rodman, etc. was around. I believe this is the year they were going for their 5th NBA Championship. We had a computer in our house, but it was more like one of those bulky old television sets that came with a keyboard and mouse. I would use it to type my book reports for school, print it off and that's all it was useful for. Essentially an upgraded typewriter. I still remember the weird noise it would make when I would have to save a document to a floppy disk and the process took several minutes. Yes - for a 10-page report. Gold's element symbol is Au and atomic number 79. These were my atomic #79 moments growing up as a kid. Life was simple. No Wi-Fi. No Facebook, Instagram or Twitter. No real worries about privacy because big data wasn't really a thing back then. Life for me was about being in nature, running, hanging out with friends and pondering what we wanted to be when we grew up. You never know you’re living in a golden moment until you’re not. I’m grateful for the life I have right now, but there is a side of me that longs to be naïve again. To think the world is a good place. People are good. Governments are good. Old people (in their 30’s) who actually have jobs are smart and inspired about what they do. You can be anything and everything you want to be in life if you just work hard enough. To drive a 1980 Honda Accord and still have girls look at you. That's Atomic #79 bro. Gold is forged from the greatest energy events in the universe. Supernovas, the death event of a collapsing star, where the energy explosion is so powerful that our scientific instruments can detect these gravitational waves billions of light years away. It is thought earth obtained most of its elements from these supernova events during its formation 4 Billion years ago. The amount of Gold that has ever been mined in the history of mankind could fit in an Olympic size swimming pool. People who say Gold is just a shiny piece of metal that only has value because we HUMANS say it has value. How arrogant and narrow minded can we be? Gold has a power that is unlike any other material. It has a certain energy about it. If you’ve ever held a gold bar of material size and weight you’ll quickly realize you aren’t dealing with anything normal. You feel it’s intrinsic value. There’s a particular respect between your human senses and that of the gold you are handling. Almost like we're intertwined with it on some molecular way. The ancient people felt the power of gold way before advanced technology. The US Dollar has the world’s respect as it’s the global reserve currency. Many assets and commodities are priced in USD worldwide. But it’s the making of mankind with a century old history. We print as much or as little as we want to “control” the markets greed and fear. Gold is literally the making of the universe with a 14-Billion-year-old history. The value of a $20 million-dollar Picasso painting isn’t just wrapped into the art piece you are buying. When you buy a Picasso, you’re buying into the history of Picasso. You’re buying into his legacy, his personal faults and his triumphs of what made him a creative genius. But like the US Dollar it can disappear. Gold will never disappear. It can't be destroyed. Gold will always have power over Bitcoin because of this history. Cryptography and math were invented by man. Not by the Gods. Bitcoin or something like Bitcoin is better money. Math is more objective while man is more emotional. But money is just a unit of value created by man. But like Bitcoin if you don’t actually possess the gold…you don’t really own Gold. You own the idea of Gold via a certificate or ETF. That is a huge difference. When you look back on the life you lived, the chances you didn’t take, the wins, the losses, the regrets you’ll quickly realize one thing. All we are and ever will be is history. Our intrinsic value comes from the history we create. The blockchain is the first time in HUMAN history we can say the Truth is the absolute Truth. That’s an undeniable fact. However, Gold has never had this problem. Its history goes back to the beginning of time. When the first star died billions upon billions of years ago and spewed its guts to create an element that gave us our first and original blockchain. So, when you consider the trading chart above remember it’s mankind’s Greed and Fear that creates this inverse relationship between Gold and the US Dollar. If you’re a crypto-maniac like me you’ll realize gold is the longest immutable and censorship resistant blockchain created, not Bitcoin. But it goes beyond any doubt technically or fundamentally that both blockchains are way undervalued! We have for the first time an invention by man that can record history as absolute truth. And when you think of our lives or mankind's lives, it's this truth in history that we all every value and fight for. If you're a speculator be patient and wait for interesting prices. When thinking about going into a trade calculate first how much money you could lose vs. make. Best Regards, Bobby -Don't hate the hair, hate the game.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDEducation
by UnknownUnicorn1615160
US Dollar: Mind the scallopsScallops are broad patterns as shown in the chart. Whilst de-dollarisation is happening at a slow macroeconomic pace, coming from Russia, China and Japan (largely), it doesn't mean that the US Dollar will simply roll over. The pattern of the scallops is quite visible. Now the US-Dollar is at a critical point and making attempts to do another scallop. I don't assume that each scallop will be less prominent than the previous. Overall the trend from April 2018 seems to be weakening but I make no assumptions that in the short term (next few weeks) the US-Dollar will not bounce north. US-Dollar strength is broadly inversely correlated with commodities, metals and US-stock-markets - whilst affecting the strength of other currencies indirectly. The pattern is useful in terms of assessing other positions in the markets both on Stock Markets and Forex.
FX:USDOLLAREducation
by Captain_Walker
2
[DXY] Correlation with other pairsHi guys ! This is an other simple chart to explain the correlation between DXY and other pairs. As you know, the best exemple is with EURUSD. When EURUSD goes up, DXY goes down, and when DXY goes up, EURUSD goes down. This is because in the DXY (Dollar Index), there is more than 50 % EURUSD. The U.S. Dollar Index is calculated with this formula: USDX = 50.14348112 × EURUSD ^(-0.576) × USDJPY ^(0.136) × GBPUSD ^(-0.119) × USDCAD ^(0.091) × USDSEK ^(0.042) × USDCHF ^(0.036) Thanks for your time guys !
TVC:DXYEducation
by AnthoXBT
1
[DXY] How to use Fibonacci IndicatorHi guys ! This a simple chart with a explicit Fibonacci Indicator. Many people asking me how to use it, it's easy, have a look. Story : Fibonacci was an Italian mathematician (1175 - 1250). He discovered this number sequence like this: Each numbers is calculated by adding the two previous numbers, for exemple : 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89... The special thing in this sequence is that every numbers is 1.618 of previous and 0,618 of next one. And as you know, 1,618 is the "Gold number" . (Hope my english is not too bad haha) 1 - Choose a higher and lower price (downtrend) or lower and higher price (uptrend) 2 - Fibonacci will retrace different line at 23.6, 38.2, 50, 61.8, 78.6 and 100 % 3 - Theses line will be the next supports / resistances in the correction / bounce You can use it to place the best order (BUY or SELL) and make more profit. Ask me for any questions ! Thanks for your time.
TVC:DXYEducation
by AnthoXBT
RV Simplifed - Krümel’s VoodooRV Simplified: I get this question all the time, and even though the concept is simple, many people have a hard time getting their heads around it. Here is snapshot of above at time of publish. Sept 19, 2018, 7:30am ET. As the above LIVE chart will not last more than a day.. accurately. ——————- Q- When DXY falls, WTI follows right? A- No.. they fall and rise at different rates, on some Timeframes they will be inverted (say 10min) while on 4hr they will both trend in same direction. I look at the value of oil in Dollar , as well as other currencies. But oil is priced in dollars.. so it will always gravitate to that level. This is based on the amount of volumes being traded in other currencies. (I believe) . Q- So having a weaker pound, yen and eur will equate to oil price going up as we get more dollars? right? A- Sure.. and vice verse.. Let’s say nobody trades oil for 1 hr. But during that time the Doller dropped by 10%! Those wanting to buy oil from you in EUR, would need to pay 10% more to keep you even, or you would need to sell at 10% loss. BUT -If I’m buying from you and in dollar. Price doesn’t change as we are both using dollars. - Extreme example. So the price of oil is based on what buyer is willing to pay.. if those in U.K. (above example) are willing to pay the 10%, but most of the buyers are in US. The price will only go up buy the amount of volume those U.K. buyers represent. Now do that for EUR, YEN, GBP, and Doller.. that’s RV! Lastly - I treat SPX like a currency (normalized to dollar) SPX is a great scale on daily movement. Not always coupled but use 2 day range to set scale. I think this has to do with the ETFs and truly they are the volume in PaperOil.
TVC:USOILEducation
by BigEz
1
A Lesson On Reading Risk Profiles (Must Watch)In the following video, Ivan Delgado, Head of Market Research at Global Prime, walks us through the different scenarios that can exist when trading risk. Ivan simplifies the reading of the environment as a trader one can encounter by combining the price behavior of the SP500, US 30-yr bond yield, US Dollar index, and to a lesser extent, Gold, as it's become more a function of DXY performance. A must watch for all forex traders, especially those trading risk-sensitive crosses such as JPY, CHF.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by FlowState
1
DXY (Neutral) - - Wednesday FOMC mtg min releaseWhats up Guys - See explanation on the chart - We are going to be looking for opportunities (today and tomorrow) to be preapred to both Long or Short the USD based on the release of the minutes. This post is mostly to give an idea of the thinking that I go through as an active trader. Ten Likes / Comments / Dislikes and I will update the chart Let me know how you feel Intelligent disagreement is always welcome Good Luck - See you on the trading floors #Crypto #BTC #cryptocurrency #forex #DXY #usd -Nix
TVC:DXYEducation
by WillNixTrading
6
Nasdaq_Indexes_Look into todays action_Shorts considered only. Occasionally I will be slapping together a commentary about the days action on my favorite index and making a point to pickout the best entry of the day. This does not mean I take these entries. I simply point them out. These posts will be short simple and insightful. Notice the daily is bearish. We know better than to hold onto long positions. Over the weekend SPX and DOWJ setup very nice looking sell signals. Market makers know all of us retail traders sat around and thought about how bad we wanted to get short all weekend. So first thing this morning they gave us our fills. NQ pushed lower and stopped out tight long trades and entered silly short orders. Then the market made a substantial move higher only to stop out the retail short traders. Only to stall around lunchtime. Markets ticked around until 2pm when we finally started showing bearish signals and my plan allowed my to trade with the direction of the daily. Price broke the lunchtime level and then formed a perfect verification process to confirm we were about to move lower. The market took back all the days gains between 2 and 3:50. Notice the 5 minute chart in the comments below.Cant post the 5 min which truly shows the details of today's move. What a day. Stay tuned! If you found this analysis useful or thoughtful Likes/Comments/Follows are much appreciated! Disclaimer: Your data may be different. Material is educational only. Trade at your own risk!
FOREXCOM:NAS100Education
by UnknownUnicorn981629
Learning how USD corrolates with non-USD currencies. EURCADMy CURRENT definition of RISK. RISK ON USD down, moving XXX/USD currencies up and USD/XXX currencies down. or RISK OFF USD up, moving XXX/USD currencies down and USD/XXX currencies up. Mid term (3 wks-6mo) I lean bias towards 2018 trading in RISK ON mode. Which means EURUSD is a buy mid-term. USDCAD is a sell mid-term. In the last several months we have been in RISK ON mode with EURUSD in a obvious uptrend. I've noticed EURCAD trends UP when we are risk on. So mid-term we cannot expect to short EURCAD because we know the underlying currencies are in up trends. Short term I do believe there is room for a pullback to the 1.53 or 1.52 levels coupled with a pullback in EURUSD. But ultimately I will be looking to trade EURCAD higher in months to come. Full Disclaimer: This is a test I'm running to better understand how correlations among two USD pegged pairs perform when pegged against each other. I will be referencing both EURUSD and USDCAD often. EURUSD is perfectly 1-1 inversely correlated with USD. This is because the EURUSD is the strongest correlated currency to the USD in the world and ultimately controls EURCAD by nature. Trade between the United States and the European Union is over half of USD transactions so EURO's are the most strongly correlated out of all other currencies. That being said when I'm looking at the price of EURUSD, I'm actually reflecting on the price of USD if that makes any sense. EURUSD is up when USD is down BECAUSE USD is down! I track USD with the US Dollar index. Ticker DXY. If you found this useful or thoughtful Likes/Comments/Follows are much appreciated! Disclaimer: Oanda data shown. Material is educational only. Trade at your own risk! and ultimately controls EURCAD by nature
Education
by UnknownUnicorn981629
EURUSD – Is it doing an about turn for the worse? - Update In my previous chart of EURUSD, you will find lots of details explaining why I am anticipating a new bearish cycle in which the wave 4 (in circle) was about completed and wave 5 (in circle) was about to commence. There are lots of additional charts in comment section to help validate longer term view. This chart is linked below for your reference. We did not have the follow through to initial decline. Instead a new high was pasted last week. At present, I do not think that this has really changed much for the longer term. In the short term wave 4 was still in progress. So this is a second attempt to identify possible completion of wave 4, which could now be in place or will be shortly. If correct then wave 5 will follow as anticipated. In addition to details describe in the earlier chart referred to above, here is the summary of updated technical: 1. We have a trendline from July 2008 high, connection April 2011 high (but ignoring May 2014 as over throw) which comes in to proximity of current price that might mark wave 4 high. 2. We have an uptrend line on RSI from 2013 and August 2017 peak appear to suggest a hidden bearish divergence along with normal divergence with price making new high above August peak and RSI making lower high. 3. In addition to that, we have possible time symmetry shown on the chart – namely April 2011 High to March 2014 closing high measures 150 bars on weekly charts, which equates to approx 149 bars measured from March 2015 low to current high. 4. Fibonacci time relationship between Waves 1 – 3 and wave 4 is approx Fib ration of 1.3618 as shown in the chart. 5. Open Interest and Net Long by Large Speculators is even more extreme now than the one we noted at previous peak in August/September 2017, see chart below. Short Entry: You can drop down to daily or 4 hour time frame to time short entry on confirmation using your normal method. Just keep in mind that it might can chop about before it gets going in anticipated decline. Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps the me most, but could be completely wrong. Therefore, as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views. For those who appreciate my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then, please be constructive and share for all to learn from. Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. DanV
Education
by DanV
14
Trends are THE MOST IMPORTANT tool in the toolbox.Hello Traders. Hope everyone is staying warm. Snow and zero degree temperatures expected in Virginia. Many traders use many different indicators. There are so many its impossible to tell which ones are useful. Simplicity is key. The most important tool in a traders toolbox is the ability to deceiver the prevailing trend. Using higher high/ lower low analysis we can identify the difference between strong market moves and weaker ones. This stems from the well known philosophy that in order for markets to continue moving in the correct direction they need to confirm momentum shift before making large moves. -Resistance is considered overhead levels that price struggles to break AND CLOSE above. -Support is considered under price levels that price struggles to break AND CLOSE below. Notice how I mention, AND CLOSE. It is 100% required that price CLOSES above the support or resistance level to declare it broken on whatever time frame chart being traded. After the perfect head and shoulders pattern unfolded many traders continued to short EURUSD without much success (Took a stop loss myself) One must recognize the downward momentum was triggered by the bearish head and shoulders pattern (see attached post, traded perfectly.) In actuality the trend is still bullish. At the end of the head and shoulders move, trend reversed only briefly. Price was unable to break the low before moving higher. At (1) the first top was made. After making new highs, we always expect a retest of old resistance confirming support. (2) Price came back and tested old resistance, confirming support in a reckless fashion. This wiped all long traders out and assured direction for short traders who were burned before. Once everyone was mixed up, the trend prevailed to the upside. Now we find ourselves at (3). New highs have been confirmed so price is expected to retest old resistance to confirm as support around the 1.19500ish level. At this level I will be watching diligently for signs of rejection and ready to take entry on a single close of any rejection formations. If we confirm price action, targets are estimated around 1.2300. IF you found this useful or thoughtful Likes/Comments/Follows are much appreciated! TElphee – Self-made Technical Analyst. 5-year market enthusiast with experience in Forex, Futures and Cryptocurrencies. Disclaimer: Oanda data shown. This is NOT investment advice.
Education
by UnknownUnicorn981629
8
GODD XAUUSD How Gold Traders stay ahead with aid of DXY chartGold: XAUUSD 1.25% How DXY -0.25% is the gold 1.24% trader's best friend right now So far gold 1.24% has behaved in the bear-mangling mode expected of it since the dollar broke down below key support on DXY -0.25% at 94.26 (right hand chart) but it wasn't too smart to let it go again at 1290. That rally on Friday was vicious for bears - the shape of price action as gold 1.24% turned resistance at 1281 into support shows the market adjusting before gold 1.24% powers 16 points north, a volte-face - which you would have been expecting if you've been experienced enough, wise enough to run the two charts in tandem. If you don't you're dealing with a blindfold over one eye... The pin bars on the one hour chart here show strong rejection at 1296.78 down to current levels at 1293 and a streak of uncontested green...very rare for a space like that to remain uncontested and it should flip back to 1288, and potentially to 1284 before it rallies again. On the other side of the street, we can see that DXY -0.25% is flipping in a range beween 93.99 (the high for the week was exactly 93.99 as forecast, giving a precise point at which to sell gold 1.24% - with stops only triggered in event that DXY -0.25% breaks above 94 and holds, in which case DXY -0.25% is going up and Gold 1.24% is going back down. Just the best duo/tandem trade there is in almost any market anywhere. Use it or lose it. Probably the best companion a gold 1.24% trader can ever have. DXY: Dollar index 0.11% Through all the noise of currency pairs and most commodity markets there is a still, small, much neglected voice that can tell usually show you the bigger picture/helicopter view of all that close combat fighting going on below. Not always, but usually. DXY -0.25% , so far since the breakdown at 94.26, has been very helpful. It's flipping between 94 key resistance and 93.50 key near term support and this is what's causing such grief and whipsaw in the price of gold 1.24% . Right now it's giving mixed near term signals... believe it will break lower still eventually, but the chart is not confirming that here....it's just double bottomed at 93.50...was Ok to bounce here for sure but that was quite a big bounce - pins at top and botttom of move...just near term a little confusing, at least to this writer anyway. But gold 1.24% is toppy -0.73% near term and DXY -0.25% is showing a double bottom near term. If it can rally from here then it should push back up to the 93.99 where it should meet profit takers. (Do same with gold 1.24% shorts at that point). And only if DXY -0.25% can then manage to break above 94 and hold is the tide turning back in favour of Dollar, at which point we look to short gold 1.24% again. And on the other side, if at any point DXY -0.25% breaks 93.50 it enters a zone of uncertainty/whipsaw between 93.50 and 93.35 where positions can sudddenly reverse - like quicksand on a map this zone cannot be trusted - a zone to avoid if possible. However, if at any point DXY -0.25% is driven below 93.5 for more than 2 hours it will become llikely that support is eroding and it should start to fall away quite hard to 92.80-92.62 - and thereby triggering aggressive gold 1.24% longs.
TVC:DXYEducation
by sumastardon
What is the Dollar Index - DXY - USDX ?What is the Dollar Index? The U.S. Dollar Index is a geometrically-averaged calculation of six currencies weighted against the U.S. dollar Which currencies are included in the U.S. Dollar Index? The U.S. Dollar Index contains six component currencies: the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc. What is the Formula Of DXY Here is the formula for calculating DXY: DXY = 50.14348112 × EUR/USD^(-0.576) × USD/JPY^(0.136) × GBP/USD^(-0.119)
TVC:DXYEducation
by FxCanli
40
How a Hedge Fund Manager trades GoldLearn with the Lex van Dam Trading Academy on TradingView! www.tradingview.com Featured in our Trading Club, 4th July Our checklist provides a systematic process that fellow hedge fund managers and traders employ to analyse markets, from which the biggest trading decisions are made. We use similar versions to analyse major currencies, stock markets and other commodities such as crude oil, and score each factor +1, -1 or 0 depending on whether they are regarded as positive, negative or neutral for the coming month. The total ranges from +7 to -7, with a positive score indicating a potential buy, and a negative score suggesting that you may look to sell (closing long positions or going short). Sometimes of course there will be a neutral total of 0 - which in itself can be valuable in protecting your P&L by avoiding trades when there is nothing to be done. Excess liquidity. When annual growth in the money supply exceeds industrial production, as it does currently, the number is positive and is considered a bullish factor for gold as an alternative store of value and hedge against the erosion of purchasing power. This doesn't tend to change month-to-month and has indeed been positive for some time. (+1) Real interest rate. Those of you who follow us know why we like to look at the so-called 'real rate’. When this is negative it means that domestic US savers and foreign investors are growing poorer by holding cash, which is a great reason to buy gold. For now though, the uptick makes gold less appealing as an alternate store of value against fiat currencies. (-1) ETF Flows. We also like to look at whats happening in ETFs. In the case of gold we are looking for any divergence between the spot gold price and a widely traded Exchange Traded Fund which tracks gold. Currently this is neutral as there is no divergence, indicating that things are behaving normally. (0) Futures positioning. We view speculative positioning as contrarians. Presently the net position is in the middle of the recent range and pretty much unchanged on the previous month. No directional signal here either. (0) Options positioning. Lex and I also look at the options market for clues. Although it is unusual to derive a contrarian signal from the options market if the futures position is not at an extreme, when you do see them it can be very insightful. For now though, whilst the risk reversal indicates a preference for upside bets, it is far from extreme and basically neutral, at least for now. (0) Short interest. Short interest in the gold miners has EXPLODED higher in recent weeks. This is not only a clear positive for contrarian gold investors, but also something that I want to do some further research in to. Even though there was no pessimism (let alone extreme pessimism) in the futures and options components on our checklist, when stock investors are suddenly making record short bets in shares of related mining companies, it tells me that there may be an opportunity coming. (+1) Seasonality. Gold tends to move in line with historical seasonal trends as much as any asset out there. However, whilst the summer months (including July) tend to be the best for gold, there have been some significant declines too. So even though we wouldn’t trade gold based on seasonality alone, it is a factor worth considering in our checklist. (+1) Overall, we arrive at a total score of +2 for gold heading in to July. Whilst technical analysts may say that the chart looks pretty negative, the our checklist suggests that gold bears may be caught short by the bull case captured in our objective trading process. Learn with the Lex van Dam Trading Academy on TradingView! www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Education
by JamesHelliwell
1