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J-DXY

Is the US Dollar dying or dead?In this very busy chart, I compare 6 forex pairs. It needs some study. What seems clear to me is that the USD strength has been heading south manly since March 2020. This is not unexpected of course, following the FED's money-printing spree, now called QE infinity. I'm not here to say whether that's a good thing or a bad thing. The overall effect of a weak USD is to keep the US stock indices afloat. I'm not saying that is an intended effect of what the FED is/was doing. I think the effect is dangerous on both Bond and Stock markets, because at some point people or banks are gonna wake up and wonder 'What's the value of money?'. In a sense that's already happening, as in other posts I've shown that there is movement of value into metals and Bitcoin. The above are speculative opinions that may well be wrong. This means that you ought not to make decisions based on anything I say. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Education
by Captain_Walker
7
BITCOIN: What's driving it? Is 30,000 in sight?In this video I show my theory on what's probably happening with BTCUSD. It appears that Bitcoin is being used to hedge against the US Dollar crashing. $22,000 is certain in sight and who knows it could get to $30,000 sooner than anyone might imagine. I still think that BTC is too volatile for my liking and therefore I've stayed out. I've been happy to avoid FOMO. I've lost nothing. I think that many will profit from a possible further charge north. But there is also still a risk that it BTC could reverse significantly. Best wishes for the Christmas period 🎅and have a Happy Prosperous New Year. 🥂🎁
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Captain_Walker
29
Dollar Index (DXY) From an educational point of view, time cycle theory shows that the price of the dollar in January is interested in reaching its lowest level. In fundamental terms, the dollar usually weakens slightly towards the end of the presidency. Especially if a Republican like Trump is president. The value of the dollar weakens, especially during the Republican era, and grows during the Democratic era. (Just look at the chart) There are two lines of support here that mark the end of the flat correction pattern. Wave support line (4) and correction wave support line (a) I estimate the probability of a price return from wave support (4) as 30%. And I estimate the probability of a price return from wave (a) support at 80%. I wish you good deals Please like the post and leave a comment so that we can get energy and provide more analysis, thank you
TVC:DXYEducation
by UnknownUnicorn13531177
Adding Instruments to TradingView Chart to Track CorrelationsQuick Tutorial video to show how I add and use other instruments like DXY and ES1! to track correlations across markets. These correlations are a powerful confirmation to help identify behaviour across markets, to give confident in the forex or futures instrument you are trading. I briefly mention Support & Resistance zones in this video. You can learn how I produce them in the recording of my recent live streaming class >>HERE<<
CBOT:ZB1!Education
by PBratbyOfficial
2
2020: Why Bitcoin Is Inversely Correlated With the US DollarThere is no doubt that Bitcoin and the overall crypto market has some correlation with the stock market, with market experts remarking that Bitcoin has been surging in tandem with traditional markets for awhile over the past year or so. Extensive research has already been conducted by market experts to study the seeming correlation of both markets, but I would like to take my stab at it as well, but from the US Dollar correlation perspective. Investors should be aware of the close inverse correlation between the strength of the US dollar and Bitcoin. A widespread debate among investors is the correlation of Bitcoin (BTC) with other markets. In other periods, gold and Bitcoin appear to be moving in tandem. However, the correlation that needs to be monitored most closely is that of the dollar, as the global economy is based on the strength or weakness of our global reserve currency, the US dollar. Bitcoin and Cryptos as assets: The US dollar is the de facto world currency, thus the value benchmark for everything else, including assets and other fiat currencies. A lot of financial activities are based on US dollars like loans and settlements, which no doubt increase requirements and adoptions of US dollars (In a negative word, US dollar colonization). When the world lacks a supply of US dollars, everything else will fall in price in reference to US dollars. If the US dollar is stable, then the crypto prices may have become influenced by the monetary policies of other currencies. For example, there is very high inflation in Argentina, so the general public would like to exchange their Argentine pesos for Bitcoin, to reduce the risk of inflations. Although Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can function like currencies, like payment and store of value, the market cap of cryptocurrencies is quite small compared to traditional finance, and most financial activities are based on fiat money. After all, you can't borrow Euro, then pay back Ethers. Typically you need to pay back Euro. In other words, the financial inclusion of cryptocurrencies is not enough. If bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies replace more traditional financial functions, which may reduce the role of the US dollar and other fiat money, the relationships between Bitcoin and other fiat money will be different. For most of Bitcoins’s young life, the correlation between the cryptocurrency and the S&P 500 was largely negative—until the 2017 bull run (when Bitcoin’s skyrocketing notoriety seemingly invited a host of new investors, many of whom had their hands in other markets). What I believe: I believe that since the US dollar is now standing at the frontlines of support, and testing it twice, we can see some form of recovery within the US dollar, especially with Trump miraculously being tested negative again, and now also going into elections - which makes people want to carry more cash while the stock market remains volatile. People will be looking for a hedge, whether it is gold or Bitcoin, we also can't take out the fact that cash is also king. In the chart above, we can clearly see the inverse correlation between Bitcoin and the US dollar. For example, the COVID19 crash led to the USD rise immensely high in preparation for a possible recession caused by this pandemic (stocks also plummeted). After a miraculous recovery, we saw the US Dollar bleed slowly and also saw a clear recovery in the stock market, bringing Bitcoin along with it up. From a pure technical standpoint, we can see that Bitcoin has broken down our legacy trend line, and is now retesting the resistance twice, while the US dollar retests the support for a second time. With all of these considered, we can assume that Bitcoin will have some form of correction, while markets remain volatile and cash driven investors will liquidate their investments in preparation for a hedge. Trade Safe. X Force
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
114
The myth of hyperinflation series- #1 Fed's decisionEven as Fed balance sheet keeps climbing up and U.S takes on more national debt in the current low-interest rate environment, I am not eager to jump to the premature conclusion and entertain the idea of hyperinflation. I'm not saying that it is improbable, I am just saying that it is an unlikely and low-probability event. Yes, it is a fat tail risk that shouldn't be overlooked because it comes with the devastating consequence. However, several conditions and criteria need to be met before we can even realistically begin to talk about the probability of hyperinflation. Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) recent decision to keep the fed fund rate unchanged within the target range of 0-0.25% pretty much signaled FED's intention to hold rate effectively to zero until 2022, for at least two years. why? Based on the CPI of the past decade. Since great recession ended in mid-2009, inflation has stayed below 2% for all but two years, therefore; Fed is more worried about disinflationary risk than inflationary risk. Fed's initiative of "average inflation targeting" is determined to hit 2% inflation while keeping the employment low. Since Fed has been missing its inflation goal for a decade, people speculate that Fed may let the inflation run up to 3% or 4% to make up for it being below 2% for so long, thus triggering and opening the doorway to the potential hyperinflation. While such theoretical risk is not completely unfounded, the fact remains the same that we need to have the inflation first before we can have hyperinflation. Next, we will look at Fed's tools and to what extent Fed can influence the market.
TVC:DXYEducation
by Libratus
4
Fundamental vs Tecnical Aanysis 8.22.20 In this video I am suggesting a free service that might be useful to some traders. My trading is technically based, however, I believe there is value to fundamentals... and I explained this in the video. I think the video is worth listening to... and I describe these relationships using the DXY, Gold, Bitcoin... as it pertains to the fundamental analysis offered by this free service. In your pursuit of a successful trading strategy, at some point part of you will try to eliminate any information that seems superfluous, confusing, or causing loss. It is understandable why many technical traders will eliminate the fundamental component. I am trying to argue the need for balance and the process to take in more information in a way that doesn't create more stress if it is done judiciously. Whether you like it or not successful trading isn't just technical... and not just that, having a broader understanding of markets, even if you choose to be a technical trader( which I am )... will more likely enhance your results with a realistic perspective on your part.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by ScottBogatin
DXY/ Economy for next decade.Hi Guys! Today I would like to talk about Ray Dalio and problems on the global economy. (not sure if he needs the introduction) Ray Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater. Bridgewater has raised over $ 58 billion for his clients. Bloomberg managed to access the message to their clients. And as it is now accepted there were found very gloomy forecasts regarding the financial market and how it will behave in the next 10 years and it assumes as a "lost decade" for the stock market. If you look at previous historical events, there were several cases when the financial market had negative returns for 10 years or more. That is, if you put your money in the stock market and waited 10 years or more, you would still be at a loss. For example, in the 2000s, right before the collapse of Dot-com, that is, if you invested and waited until 2012, you would still have a negative balance. But the best example that can be cited is in 1929 when if you were to invest then you would have to wait over 30 years before you could profit from your investment. And Dalio believes that we are in this kind of period. I propose to figure out why Ray Dalio thinks so. 1. Bridgewater cited a drop in profits as the reason for the lost decade in the future, so it's a drop in what was once a profit. They noted “the margin that provided most of the excess stock returns over cash may face a shift beyond the current yield cyclical decline,” and one of the reasons they see the decline in earnings is due to declining globalization. they also said "Globalization, perhaps the biggest driver of profitability in developed countries over the past few decades, has already reached its peak. Now the conflict between the US and China and the global pandemic is further accelerating the efforts of multinationals to reorient and duplicate supply chains, with a focus on reliability rather than just cost optimization." In 2019 and years earlier, there was a big direction towards globalization, which means that companies operate in different countries and buy things in others as it is much cheaper and profits are growing significantly. But analysts from Bridgewater see a decline in globalization after this crisis as countries begin to rely more on themselves and produce their local goods, but for a large number of companies this reduces profits because it is more expensive to produce goods themselves than to outsource them and this is one of the key reasons of a lost decade - "Decrease in globalization". 2. “Even if overall profitability recovers, some companies will die or their shares will devalue during this time. Left with lower yields and cash shortages, companies are likely to come out of the curve with more debts. ”
TVC:DXYEducation
by TradingExpertGroup
The Importance of Correlating Assets Hello Traders, In today's lecture I'm explaining the importance of monitoring correlating assets to help give us early clues about the major asset we're looking to trade. When trading EURUSD, I like to look at 6 correlating assets. They are as follows: GBPUSD DXY GOLD SPX DAX I hope you find this video to be informative and educational to allow you to add correlating assets as a strategy approach when trade planning. Always remember to trade safe - trade well. ~Michael Harding
Education
by Michael_Harding
EW Analysis: USD Dollar Index May Face Limited DownsideHello traders! Today we will talk about US Dollar - $DXY - USD Index. DXY was in a big sideways consolidation since March, ideally within a bearish triangle in wave B. Currently, we can see it finally breaking into new lows for wave C that can stop in the 97.50 - 96.50 support zone around important 61,8% - 78,6% Fibonacci retracement and from where we may see a bullish reversal at least in three waves, maybe even back to 103 highs, but to confirm our view, we need to see a bounce and recovery back above 100 region. What we want to point out is that if you are familiar with Elliott Waves, then you know that triangles cannot occur in wave 2, so it must be a B wave, followed by the final wave C decline and then the whole structure looks corrective within uptrend. We just want you to be careful at this stage, so don't fall in love with bears just yet, because even stocks can be trading at extreme levels and with a potential sell-off, USD Dollar may be a safe-heaven again. If you like what we do, then please support/follow us! Trade smart! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
TVC:DXYEducation
by ew-forecast
10