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J-DXY

The myth of hyperinflation series- #1 Fed's decisionEven as Fed balance sheet keeps climbing up and U.S takes on more national debt in the current low-interest rate environment, I am not eager to jump to the premature conclusion and entertain the idea of hyperinflation. I'm not saying that it is improbable, I am just saying that it is an unlikely and low-probability event. Yes, it is a fat tail risk that shouldn't be overlooked because it comes with the devastating consequence. However, several conditions and criteria need to be met before we can even realistically begin to talk about the probability of hyperinflation. Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) recent decision to keep the fed fund rate unchanged within the target range of 0-0.25% pretty much signaled FED's intention to hold rate effectively to zero until 2022, for at least two years. why? Based on the CPI of the past decade. Since great recession ended in mid-2009, inflation has stayed below 2% for all but two years, therefore; Fed is more worried about disinflationary risk than inflationary risk. Fed's initiative of "average inflation targeting" is determined to hit 2% inflation while keeping the employment low. Since Fed has been missing its inflation goal for a decade, people speculate that Fed may let the inflation run up to 3% or 4% to make up for it being below 2% for so long, thus triggering and opening the doorway to the potential hyperinflation. While such theoretical risk is not completely unfounded, the fact remains the same that we need to have the inflation first before we can have hyperinflation. Next, we will look at Fed's tools and to what extent Fed can influence the market.
TVC:DXYEducation
by Libratus
4
Fundamental vs Tecnical Aanysis 8.22.20 In this video I am suggesting a free service that might be useful to some traders. My trading is technically based, however, I believe there is value to fundamentals... and I explained this in the video. I think the video is worth listening to... and I describe these relationships using the DXY, Gold, Bitcoin... as it pertains to the fundamental analysis offered by this free service. In your pursuit of a successful trading strategy, at some point part of you will try to eliminate any information that seems superfluous, confusing, or causing loss. It is understandable why many technical traders will eliminate the fundamental component. I am trying to argue the need for balance and the process to take in more information in a way that doesn't create more stress if it is done judiciously. Whether you like it or not successful trading isn't just technical... and not just that, having a broader understanding of markets, even if you choose to be a technical trader( which I am )... will more likely enhance your results with a realistic perspective on your part.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by ScottBogatin
DXY/ Economy for next decade.Hi Guys! Today I would like to talk about Ray Dalio and problems on the global economy. (not sure if he needs the introduction) Ray Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater. Bridgewater has raised over $ 58 billion for his clients. Bloomberg managed to access the message to their clients. And as it is now accepted there were found very gloomy forecasts regarding the financial market and how it will behave in the next 10 years and it assumes as a "lost decade" for the stock market. If you look at previous historical events, there were several cases when the financial market had negative returns for 10 years or more. That is, if you put your money in the stock market and waited 10 years or more, you would still be at a loss. For example, in the 2000s, right before the collapse of Dot-com, that is, if you invested and waited until 2012, you would still have a negative balance. But the best example that can be cited is in 1929 when if you were to invest then you would have to wait over 30 years before you could profit from your investment. And Dalio believes that we are in this kind of period. I propose to figure out why Ray Dalio thinks so. 1. Bridgewater cited a drop in profits as the reason for the lost decade in the future, so it's a drop in what was once a profit. They noted “the margin that provided most of the excess stock returns over cash may face a shift beyond the current yield cyclical decline,” and one of the reasons they see the decline in earnings is due to declining globalization. they also said "Globalization, perhaps the biggest driver of profitability in developed countries over the past few decades, has already reached its peak. Now the conflict between the US and China and the global pandemic is further accelerating the efforts of multinationals to reorient and duplicate supply chains, with a focus on reliability rather than just cost optimization." In 2019 and years earlier, there was a big direction towards globalization, which means that companies operate in different countries and buy things in others as it is much cheaper and profits are growing significantly. But analysts from Bridgewater see a decline in globalization after this crisis as countries begin to rely more on themselves and produce their local goods, but for a large number of companies this reduces profits because it is more expensive to produce goods themselves than to outsource them and this is one of the key reasons of a lost decade - "Decrease in globalization". 2. “Even if overall profitability recovers, some companies will die or their shares will devalue during this time. Left with lower yields and cash shortages, companies are likely to come out of the curve with more debts. ”
TVC:DXYEducation
by TradingExpertGroup
The Importance of Correlating Assets Hello Traders, In today's lecture I'm explaining the importance of monitoring correlating assets to help give us early clues about the major asset we're looking to trade. When trading EURUSD, I like to look at 6 correlating assets. They are as follows: GBPUSD DXY GOLD SPX DAX I hope you find this video to be informative and educational to allow you to add correlating assets as a strategy approach when trade planning. Always remember to trade safe - trade well. ~Michael Harding
Education
by Michael_Harding
EW Analysis: USD Dollar Index May Face Limited DownsideHello traders! Today we will talk about US Dollar - $DXY - USD Index. DXY was in a big sideways consolidation since March, ideally within a bearish triangle in wave B. Currently, we can see it finally breaking into new lows for wave C that can stop in the 97.50 - 96.50 support zone around important 61,8% - 78,6% Fibonacci retracement and from where we may see a bullish reversal at least in three waves, maybe even back to 103 highs, but to confirm our view, we need to see a bounce and recovery back above 100 region. What we want to point out is that if you are familiar with Elliott Waves, then you know that triangles cannot occur in wave 2, so it must be a B wave, followed by the final wave C decline and then the whole structure looks corrective within uptrend. We just want you to be careful at this stage, so don't fall in love with bears just yet, because even stocks can be trading at extreme levels and with a potential sell-off, USD Dollar may be a safe-heaven again. If you like what we do, then please support/follow us! Trade smart! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
TVC:DXYEducation
by ew-forecast
10
PETER SCHIFF VS JEFF SNIDER!THIS POST WILL HELP YOU UNDERSTAND THE COMPETING VIEW POINTS ON THE FUTURE PERFORMANCE OF THE U.S. DOLLAR RELATIVE TO OTHER CURRENCIES! JEFF SNIDER'S POSITION ON THE DOLLAR: THE U.S. DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE OF A SHORTAGE OF DOLLARS WORLDWIDE TO CONDUCT GLOBAL TRADE IN, DUE TO THE FED'S INABILITY TO TRULY SATISFY DEMAND FOR U$Ds, AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS LONG AS FOREIGN CURRENCIES ARE SOLD TO BUY U$Ds. PETER SCHIFF'S POSITION ON THE DOLLAR: THE U.S. DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE OF AN IRRATIONAL FAITH IN THE U.S. ECONOMY BY FOREIGNERS AND THE WILLINGNESS OF PRODUCTIVE ECONOMIES WORLDWIDE TO USE AND ACCEPT PRINTED U.S. DOLLARS IN GLOBAL TRADE, SUBSIDIZING THE CONSUMPTION AND TRADE DEFICIT OF THE U.S. JEFF SNIDER'S POSITION ON U.S. TREASURIES: THE U.S. GOVERNMENT BOND MARKET HAS BEEN BID HIGHER FOR DECADES AS U.S. TREASURIES PROVIDE THE SAFEST SOURCE OF U$Ds AND ARE THE MOST ACCEPTED FORM OF COLLATERAL FOR U$D LEVERAGE. IF U$D LIQUIDITY BECOMES CONSTRAINED ENOUGH WORLDWIDE, A SELL-OFF IN THE GLOBAL U.S. TREASURY MARKET CAN OCCUR AS THEY ARE SOLD FOR THE IMMEDIATELY NEEDED U$Ds, RAISING INTEREST RATES THROUGHOUT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE ECONOMY. PETER SCHFF'S POSITION ON U.S. TREASURIES: THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S ARTIFICIAL SUPPRESSION OF INTEREST RATES SINCE THE 1990's THROUGH QE , COUPLED WITH THE USE OF U$Ds IN GLOBAL TRADE AND THE IRRATIONAL FAITH BY FOREIGNERS THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE COULD SHRINK ITS BALANCE SHEET AND NORMALIZE INTEREST RATES HAS LED TO FOREIGN CAPITAL BIDDING UP THE PRICE OF U.S. GOVERNMENT BONDS. ONCE THAT FAITH IN THE DOLLAR'S SCARCITY IS DIMINISHED AND PRODUCTIVE ECONOMIES WORLDWIDE REFUSE TO HOLD/ACCEPT U$Ds AND SUBSIDIZE AMERICAN CONSUMPTION, U.S. TREASURIES WILL BE SOLD-OFF, RAISING INTEREST RATES THROUGHOUT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE ECONOMY. JEFF SNIDER'S VIEW ON THE FUTURE OF THE DOLLAR: AS LONG AS THE FEDERAL RESERVE FAILS TO ADDRESS THE COMPLEX NEED FOR U$Ds AND AS LONG AS THE U$D REMAINS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY, DEMAND WILL OUTPACE SUPPLY, AND THE U$D WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AGAINST OTHER CURRENCIES UNTIL A CULMINATION OF DEFAULTS AND RESTRUCTURING RAVAGES THE COUNTRIES WITH THE MOST SEVERE LACK OF U$Ds, SENDING THE U$D SKY HIGH, LEADING TO AN ABANDONMENT OF THE U$D AS WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY. PETER SCHIFF'S VIEW ON THE FUTURE OF THE DOLLAR: ONCE PRODUCTIVE COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE BECOME DISILLUSIONED WITH THE AMOUNT OF EASILY CREATED U$Ds CHASING PRICES, THE APPETITE TO ACCEPT THOSE U$Ds IN EXCHANGE FOR GOODS/SERVICES AT CURRENT PRICES WILL DIMINISH, ALONG WITH THE DESIRE TO HOLD U$Ds, U.S. ASSETS AND U.S. TREASURIES. ONCE U$Ds AND U$Ds OBTAINED THROUGH THE SALE OF U.S. ASSETS AND U.S. TREASURIES ARE SOLD FOR OTHER CURRENCIES, THE U$D WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY, FURTHER INCREASING THE PRICES OF IMPORTED GOODS/SERVICES, SENDING THE U$D INTO AN INFLATIONARY SPIRAL, MARKING ITS END AS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY. IN THIS CASE, IF THE FEDERAL RESERVE MONETIZED THE SOLD U.S. TREASURIES TO PREVENT INTEREST RATES FROM RISING, THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO HYPERINFLATION. -THE NOTES ON THE CHART REFLECT KEY EVENTS THAT MARKED THE PEAK IN THE U$D's EXCHANGE RATE VS OTHER CURRENCIES
INDEX:DXYEducation
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
Update - My post April 2, 2020, "Bitcoin & Big Oil" Update - My post April 2, 2020, "Bitcoin & Big Oil" . First point of interest - Using MACD of USOIL (WTI) point before precipitous decline. See what happened when bitcoin closed month end above $365 NOV 2015 and thereafter. Notice in each case c.55% drop before rise. Bitcoin has yet to close out month above $9084.7. Second point of interest - Monthly Dollar Index if close below 98.82 (Mid point of volatility Mar 2020) see what happened to SPX when closed below 95.48 (Mid point of volatility Aug 2015) March 2016. NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
TVC:USOILEducation
by Felix000
XAUUSD - M Dears, I know most of the traders think about this chart it is a new chart, but as you can see with the attached chart you can see the old one it was 21 July 2019. and we have mentioned the gold from that date it is bullish, and it will not be bearish till touching the resistant, and that time we want to get the confirmation of the bearish with price action. Note: we believe the coronaviruses will start to begin to weaken, and all the markets, economies, and life will working and life gradually returns to normal. take care and be in save.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by iSaleh
1