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J-DXY

DXY - Gold negative correlationJohn Murphy in his classic on "Intermarket Analysis" writes on the dollar gold negative correlation. Here we compared DXY - Gold correlation on daily chart in regard towards 200 day average. If you will take closer look, you will see that in case of divergences forming, it is dollar index that usually fails. If gold breaks resistance (being in sharp uptrend towards 2011 highs) and we do observe some sort of bullish cup and handle continuation pattern - dollar is likely to fall. By DeMark criteria, bullish breakout on gold looks better than the one on dollar index. On correlation cofficient, we are also observing ever decreasing divergence trend towards 200 day average. At any case one of two should fail in uptrend:)
TVC:DXYEducation
by ICFX
13
S&P How spot market recovery & what markets to buy & sellZones created using crossovers of Monthly 20 MA on VIX close & 20 MA of same. Like end of crash in 02 & 09 some bulls and bears think this crash will only be confirmed over when TNX closes month above 1.34. See what happened to OIL, GOLD, and DOLLAR last time (green verticals). White verticals denote VIX peak (no guarantee reached that yet). Caveat small sample size & my arbitrary choice of two key TNX levels which just appeared to make this analysis work to perfection on two previous occassions. NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
TVC:VIXEducation
by Felix000
Despite helicopter money, #DXY seems to move upside ( this is not a financial advice, please consider calculating your own edge & risks in the markets ) My personal thoughts ; - Despite the fact that FED promised to distribute unlimited USD -if necessary-, the markets will consume this USD-cash because especially in EMs and other countries there is a loss of confidence against local currencies. - Big investors in the rest of the world ( outside US) will keep an eye on investing in US markets and buying US stocks as soon as the markets get well and move upside. That means, they will store more USD cash to catch the opportunities in the post-virus era. - People will need cash to buy the goods and stocks will not have a meaning in a shutdown economics. So, my personal gut-feeling says that we may see #DXY around 120 in short- to mid-term perspective. and my curves for DXY seems to be working with a breakout of curve-zone. ( see below the related chart )
TVC:DXYEducation
by Xemaphore
EW Analysis: USD Index Slowed Down Into A CorrectionHello traders! Today we will talk about the most interesting currency in the last month - US Dollar. As you can see DXY made strong and impulsive recovery recently, mainly because all the assets were down due to panic across the world and also financial crisis, so investors are rather in cash now and that's why is USD so strong. USD is currently down, but looking at the bigger picture, seems like it's just testing previous resistance area as a support here and the main reason why we are observing potential support is a three-wave a-b-c corrective decline from the highs. As you can see, there's a chance of a triangle in the middle, which in Elliott wave theory occurs only in waves "b", "4" or "x" and in some cases even "y". So, if that's the case, then a recent decline from the highs should be corrective, because triangles cannot occur in wave "ii", which means that we should be aware of a limited downside and potential bullish reversal soon. Of course, every analysis needs to be confirmed before you may act, so only if we see sharp and impulsive recovery back to 101 region, only then we can confirm a completed corrective decline within uptrend. Be humble and trade smart! If you like what we do, then please support us with likes and comments! Thanks! All the best and stay healthy! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
TVC:DXYEducation
by ew-forecast
3
review3.17.20 GOLD SILVER DXY COPPER ENPH OIL: I think it's important to know why the dollars going higher, and gold is going higher. when markets have very large corrections lower this forces commercial funds and other traders to sell the good and the bad to meet margin requirements. In 2007 or eight when the market took a nosedive gold went lower and the dollar went lower. The reason for this is that large funds will sell their goal position, and countries will sell their gold position to meet margin requirements or other requirements that are transacted in the dollar. So you may want to buy gold when the markets correcting from a high in the markets moving catastrophically lower, but you may be perplexed why the gold is going lower when everything appears to be so unstable. I misstated the description that you could hear from the fund manager of Brent Johnson of Santiago fund. if oil is in a bear flag and makes a new low, I would be looking for a buying tail to get long. I think silver will reverse and go higher and that this is a capitulation move even though it has not impressively moved off the recent bottom. I believe the price of silver is near or below the production cost for many of the silver mines, it is ridiculously low, and gold retested at 382 and bounced off of that and looks like it might be heading higher to me. When in doubt, stay out... but you can follow the market anyway. Copper traded the pattern beautifully and came to the support; I think of Copper is one of those markets you don't have to trade frequently which means you don't have to spend all day looking at it. I think ENPH is going to move higher from here.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by ScottBogatin
USDJPY NASDAQ100 The correlation between American Indices and the US Dollar is so powerful that some investors see Dow Jones Industrial as a USD market sentiment indicator. That relationship can be explained, and here is how. Explanation: When investors want to buy US stocks they tend to borrow money in low-interest rate currencies, such is the Japanese Yen. The Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc are perfect for that job. So let's see closer an example of this transaction: (1) The investors feel bullish about the market so they borrow money in order to buy stocks. They borrow money in Japanese Yen, as Yen offers traditionally very low-interest rates. After they borrow in Yen they change that money to US Dollars in order to buy US stocks. Therefore, they buy US Dollars today and repay that money in Japanese Yen in the future. That transaction is pushing USDJPY higher. (2) The investors now feel bearish about the market so they want to sell stocks. They are selling the stocks they bought before in US Dollars and pay back the money they have borrowed in Japanese Yen. Therefore, they exchange US Dollars to pay back Yen. That transaction is pushing USDJPY lower. Note that as financial arbitrage gets involved, the above process is accelerated and happens very quickly. Hence, arbitrage creates a direct correlation between USDJPY and American stock
Education
by Sbo_Dhlamini
5
A reason why you should mix TA and macro analysis... $GBPUSDHey. The chart above provides the perfect reasoning as to why purely looking at price action around market sensitive data points can be your undoing. On Friday we had the NFP number - this was a big beat. However, GBPUSD didn't really move to the downside all that much. This likely led to many getting long, lulled into a false sense of security going into the New York trading session. I'd argue that many seeing the textbook bullish engulfing candle got excited - but the probability of upside is likely not in your favour after such a large beat on a key data point! After all, orderflow is determined by the interpretation of macroeconomic variables. You can read more about this here: (www.imf.org) This is one of those situations where one has to look away from charts and look at the realities of the data - a market hasn't yet made its move on a massive data drop at a time when the Fed are deliberating about cutting rates and you want to get long? No worries, I'll happily take the other side there! It's vital to always keep a macro picture in your head, and add and take away from your view with little bits of information that we're hit with each day, because I guarantee that this will help your trading massively!
Education
by FinkPro