S&P 500 - Key Levels and April 7-11 Weekly Candle StructureApril 7-11 will easily be remembered in 2025 as one of the craziest weeks in modern history.
Intraday swings were face ripping all from a Monday "fake news" becoming Wednesday "real news" with the US pausing tariffs for 90 days
5500 major resistance on S&P
4800 major support on S&P
I believe the market will struggle to provide any clear direction in the coming weeks without some shift in narrative (for better or worse). I'm sure most traders are hoping for an optimistic tone but be prepared to be disappointed as the world's alliances and economies are being strained with massive uncertainty and angst.
There are trading opportunities in the short-term, but I'm not taking any major risks. If I can survive, the upside will be easier and a pleasant surprise.
I expect the weekly candles to dance inside the April 7-11 low and high levels and hopefully it provides some ventilation to a VIX > 30
Community ideas
The Charts Wall Street Watches – And Why Crypto Should Too📉 Crisis or Rotation? Understanding Bonds Before the Bitcoin Reveal 🔍
Hi everyone 👋
Before we dive into the next major Bitcoin post (the 'Bitcoin Reveal' is coming up, yes!), let's take a moment to unpack something critical most crypto traders overlook — the world of bonds .
Why does this matter? Because the bond market often signals risk... before crypto even reacts.
We're going to walk through 4 charts I've posted recently — not the usual BTC or altcoin setups, but key pieces of the credit puzzle . So here’s a simple breakdown:
1️⃣ BKLN – Leveraged Loans = Floating Risk 🟠
These are loans to risky companies with floating interest rates.
When rates go up and liquidity is flowing, these do well.
But when the economy weakens? They’re often the first to fall.
📌 Key level: $20.31
This level held in COVID (2020), the 2022 bank scare... and now again in 2025.
⚠️ Watch for a breakdown here = real credit stress.
Right now? Concerned, but no panic.
2️⃣ HYG – Junk Bonds = Risk Appetite Tracker 🔴
Junk bonds are fixed-rate debt from companies with poor credit.
They pay high interest — if they survive.
When HYG bounces, it means investors still want risk.
📌 Fear line: 75.72
Held in 2008, 2020 (COVID), and again now.
Price rebounded — suggesting risk appetite is trying to return .
3️⃣ LQD – Investment Grade = Quality Credit 💼
LQD holds bonds from blue-chip companies like Apple, Microsoft, Johnson & Johnson.
These are lower-risk and seen as safer during stress.
📊 Chart still shows an ascending structure since 2003, with recent pressure on support.
📌 Support: 103.81
Holding well. Rebound looks solid.
Unless we break 100, this says: "No panic here."
4️⃣ TLT – U.S. Treasuries = Trust in the Government 🇺🇸
This is the BIG one.
TLT = Long-term U.S. bonds (20+ yrs) = safe haven assets .
But since 2022, that trust has been visibly broken .
A key trendline going back to 2004 was lost — and is now resistance.
📉 Price is in a clear descending channel .
📌 My expectation: One final flush to $76 or even $71–68
…before a potential macro reversal toward $112–115
🔍 The Big Picture – What Are Bonds Telling Us?
| Chart | Risk Level | Signal |
|--------|------------|--------|
| BKLN | High | Credit stress rising, but support holding |
| HYG | High | Risk appetite bouncing at a key level |
| LQD | Medium | Rotation into quality, no panic |
| TLT | Low | Trust in Treasuries fading, support being tested |
If BKLN breaks $20...
If HYG fails to hold 75.72...
If LQD dips under 100...
If TLT falls to all-time lows...
That’s your crisis signal .
Until then — the system is still rotating, not collapsing.
So, Should We Panic? 🧠
Not yet.
But we’re watching closely.
Next: We add Bitcoin to the chart.
Because if the traditional system starts breaking... 🟧 Bitcoin is the alternative.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
📌 Next Post:
BTC vs Treasuries – The Inversion Nobody Saw Coming
Because if the system is shaking… Bitcoin is Plan B.
Stay ready.
How low Can the Dollar Go? And What It Could Mean for EUR/USDThe US dollar index has handed back all of its Q4 gains with traders betting that Trump's trade war will do more damage than good to the US economy. I update my levels on the US dollar index and EUR/USD charts then wrap up market exposure to USD index futures.
Crypto update 2025.04.14The current market moves due to tariffs are pushing away the interest from cryptos, as those are stuck somewhere between potentially being a safe-haven and still classed as a risky asset.
Let's dig in.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
CRYPTO:BCHUSD
CRYPTO:ETHUSD
CRYPTO:LTCUSD
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
GOLD Price Analysis: Key Insights for Next Week Trading DecisionIn this video, I break down the key forces pushing gold to record highs. Learn how factors such as US-China trade tensions, global inflation pressures, and geopolitical uncertainty—combined with a weakening US Dollar and safe-haven demand—are reshaping the gold market.
In this quick analysis, we cover:
🔹 Inflation & Economic Uncertainty: How rising prices and central bank policies continue to drive interest in gold.
🔹 Trade Tensions & Geopolitical Risks: The impact of US-China disputes and global instability on market sentiment.
🔹 US Dollar Weakness: Why a softer USD is making gold a more attractive asset for international investors.
🔹 Technical Insights: Pinpointing key price levels and exploring potential trend continuations or reversals ahead of US retail sales data.
Disclaimer:
Forex and other market trading involve high risk and may not be for everyone. This content is educational only—not financial advice. Constantly assess your situation and consult a professional before investing. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
#GoldMarketAnalysis #Inflation #TradeTensions #GeopoliticalRisks #TechnicalAnalysis #GoldTrading
ASX Weekly Market Wrap: XJO, LYC, IMD, NST, APA & CHC in FocusASX Weekly Market Wrap: XJO, LYC, IMD, NST, APA & CHC in Focus
In this week’s market analysis, we break down key price movements and trends across the #ASX, with a close look at the XJO and standout stocks like Lynas Rare Earths (#LYC), Imdex (#IMD), Northern Star (#NST), APA Group (#APA), and Charter Hall (#CHC). We explore current momentum, trend direction, and price action indicators to help you spot opportunities and make more confident trading decisions. Whether you're paper trading or actively investing, this is your must-watch guide for the week ahead.
NASDAQ 100 outlook and the 90-day tariff pauseThe US has paused the highest tariffs for 90 days, but markets remain under pressure from global trade tensions, and the Nasdaq 100 remains bearish. So what are the levels we need to watch next?
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information
Why you should WAIT for trades to come to YOU!In this video, we dive deep into one of the most underrated but powerful habits that separates consistently profitable traders from the rest: waiting for the trade to come to you.
It sounds simple, even obvious. But in reality, most traders—especially newer ones—feel the constant urge to do something. They scan for setups all day, jump in at the first sign of movement, and confuse activity with progress. That mindset usually leads to emotional trading, overtrading, and eventually burnout.
If you've ever felt the pressure to chase price, force trades, or trade just because you're bored… this video is for you.
I’ll walk you through:
1. Why chasing trades destroys your edge—even when the setup “kind of” looks right
2. How waiting allows you to trade from a position of strength, not desperation
3. The psychological shift that happens when you stop trading to feel busy and start trading to feel precise
4. How the pros use waiting as a weapon, not a weakness
The truth is, trading is a game of probabilities and precision. And that means you don’t need 10 trades a day—you need a few good ones a week that truly align with your plan.
Patience doesn’t mean doing nothing, it means doing the right thing at the right time. And when you develop the skill to sit back, trust your process, and wait for price to come to your level… everything changes. Your confidence grows. Your equity curve smooths out. And most importantly, your decision-making gets sharper.
So if you're tired of overtrading, feeling frustrated, or constantly second-guessing your entries—take a breath, slow it down, and start thinking like a sniper instead of a machine gun.
Let the market come to you. That’s where the real edge is.
How to Build a Super Pitchfork with Reaction & Trigger LinesIn this educational video tutorial, I guide you through the process of setting up a Super Pitchfork using the Bitcoin daily chart. This method is inspired by Patrick Mikula’s work in " The Best Trendline Methods of Alan Andrews. "
I demonstrate how to:
- Create and project reaction lines
- Generate bullish and bearish trigger lines
- Apply a personal timing technique for pitchforks based on Michael Jenkins’ methods by squaring significant pivots to the median line, reaction lines, and upper parallel to produce time-based reaction points anticipating potential market turns.
This walkthrough is for traders who already have a foundational understanding of pitchforks.
Inspired by the work of Patrick Mikula, this is how I personally apply and expand on the Super Pitchfork method in my own charting.
Understanding the Downside Market and who controls priceA downtrend starts with Dark Pool Buy Side Institutions slow rotation to lower inventory of a stock or ETF. The rotation bends the trend into a rounding pattern that is visible on the stock or ETF chart. The goal of the Dark Pool rotation is not to disturb the uptrend while they are slowly selling shares of stock over several months time. The bending of the price is a signal that the Dark Pools are in rotation. If a chart has Peaks and Valleys trendline pattern that is NOT Dark Pools. Controlled TWAP orders are automated and controlled by the events of that day.
At some point professional traders and the Sell Side Institutions will recognize the hidden rotation and start setting up sell short trades.
The upside requires more and more buyers to keep the trend moving upward. However, the downside does NOT require more and more sellers. All that is required is a void of buyers and the stock will start a downward correction on the short term or intermediate term trend.
A void of buyers also creates the opportunity for High Frequency Trading companies who are Maker/Takers to sell short. The sell short orders fill the queues of the market before it opens and then the computers of the stock exchanges gap the stock down to a first level of some buyers. HFTs, Hedge Funds and Big Money Center Banks Sell short and place their automated buy to cover order way below causing the stock price to plummet.
Then smaller funds VWAP orders trigger and the stock collapses.
What I am trying to teach is the sell side and the buy side are totally different.
They are NOT mirror images of each other.
Silver H4 | Heading into a pullback resistanceSilver (XAG/USD) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 30.83 which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 32.20 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 28.80 which is a multi-swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Fundamental V Technical Analysis, who will win? SELL GOLD?All the information you need to find a high probability trade are in front of you on the charts so build your trading decisions on 'the facts' of the chart NOT what you think or what you want to happen or even what you heard will happen. If you have enough facts telling you to trade in a certain direction and therefore enough confluence to take a trade, then this is how you will gain consistency in you trading and build confidence. Check out my trade idea!!
www.tradingview.com
SPX500 & Nasdaq: Confluence! Confluence! Confluence!With consumer confidence off at circuit breaking levels, the market, technically, has reached extreme levels of support. Let's look at it:
Technicals:
(1) Horizontal Levels of support
(2) 50%/61.8% fib confluence
(3) exDiv1
(4) extreme indicators
(5) Chikou span testing cloud support
(6) 28% drop is SPX
All of these levels are lining up around the same location. And just like in real estate "Location! Location! Location!" is the adage; in markets, "Confluence! Confluence! Confluence!" is the adage!
EDUCATION: The $5 Drop: How Trump’s Tariffs Sent Oil TumblingOil markets don’t move in a vacuum. Politics, trade wars, and global economic shifts all play a role in price action. Case in point: the recent $5 drop in oil prices following Trump’s latest tariff announcement.
What Happened?
Markets reacted swiftly to Trump’s renewed push for tariffs, targeting key trading partners. The result? A ripple effect that sent oil prices tumbling as traders anticipated lower global demand. The logic is simple—higher tariffs slow trade, slowing trade weakens economies, and weaker economies use less oil.
Why It Matters to Traders
For traders, this kind of volatility is both an opportunity and a risk. Sharp price drops like this shake out weak hands while rewarding those who position themselves with clear strategies. If you trade crude oil, understanding the macro picture—beyond just supply and demand—can make or break your positions.
The Next Move
Is this just a knee-jerk reaction, or the start of a larger trend? Smart traders are watching key levels, tracking institutional order flow, and looking for confirmation before making their next move.
How do you react when headlines move the market? Do you panic, or do you position yourself with a plan? Drop a comment and let’s talk strategy.
Alibaba - Don't Forget Chinese Stocks Now!Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) still remains super interesting:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After we saw the very expected parabolic rally on Alibaba about four months ago, Alibaba is now perfectly retesting major previous structure. Yes, we could see a short term pullback in the near future but this just offers a perfect break and retest after the rounding bottom pattern.
Levels to watch: $110, $140
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
BRBR Power Bar and Protein Shakes Shakin' It UP!Fundamentals:
Meets my parameters for investing long-term.
Technicals:
Daily:
ExDiv1
Triples
161 extension, equal legs and weekly key fib meeting at the same spot (confluence)
New Crown high formed on the daily
Weekly:
uHd+hammerw/ d3 volume @ key fib pullback
morning star
Met monthly average range
Kijun signal
extreme indicator
Target 140 (tentatively), but will hold forever if I possible
Tentative rethinking point to buy more investment if it falls is about 48.
BTC- Weekly Analysis: Elliott Wave ProjectionThis analysis applies Elliott Wave Theory using ghost candles to project potential future price movement for BTC/USDT Perpetual on Pionex.
Wave Structure: Completed (W)-(X)-(Y) correction followed by a speculative (A)-(B)-(C) correction using ghost candles.
Key Levels: Support at $110,791.5 (trendline), Resistance at $140,454.5.
Volume Confirmation: Low volume (154.4K) confirms the projected wave is speculative.
Forecast: If price respects the trendline, the next impulse wave could reach $140,454.5. A breakdown could target $73,238.2.
Be the Choosy trader on Gold!Price is dragging on dropping. being very indecisive. Looks like the entire market is waiting on News to help give it a push. I need to see price break out of value before I can get a read on a sold move. in the mean time this is sclaping conditions. You can hold trades. Have to cut them short quick with this price action. Since we have some USD news tomorrow that indicates that the market might be waiting for that before proceeding on any decisions. Patience is key!