How to find extremely strong and accurate levels (Must Read!!).I know how to properly identify support and resistance levels that are backed by recent supply or demand. By this I mean, supply is what traders consider to be selling power that makes a currency value go down. Demand is the total opposite as it shows its self as support and encourages a currency's value to go up. With that said, support and resistance or supply and demand are perhaps the single most important concepts in any form of trading. You can easily find these levels if you accurately use past price data (candlesticks) as a reference point to current levels that may or may not break to find the best place to place entries and stop loss. Trading support and resistance levels are so abundant that you can go all the way back to 2010 and pick ANYWHERE to plot lines only to find out that they formed a perfect support or resistance level in the current times of 2018! This is the number reason why it's important to use the most current S&R levels as a reference point to where price is most likely to break through or bounce off. This is from my tradingview. (www.tradingview.com)
Fractal
BTC vs The bad Boy of FractalsHi there,
welcome to another educational post dealing with fractals. Again i will derive a possible path from a pattern which is not yet completed. So beware that there are many IFs,WOULDs and LIKEHOODs on the way to completion. The market will decide when to go where. IF the pattern gets invalidated we all will be happy in the sight of one thing less to worry about.
But in case of the pattern WOULD be completed, i have derived some trend lines from parts of the whole structure. I have colored them accordingly, so you can replicate it later on your own and in any chart you spot suitable fractals on. Looking especially at the downside there is no guarantee IF or WHEN certain levels will be reached. Those levels and trends i derived are there because their existence is defined by kinda geometric rules. I derived and cloned some more as needed to verify them against each other and reveal the IMPLICATED error rate of the painting. The target levels are indicators for the potential of the pattern. Nothing more, nothing less. As this trend lines imply an error rate, as stated before, please see all derived data as estimates. You probably can derive more trend lines from this pattern but this set fits the educational purpose.
I have put some effort in making the chart and process of creation as self-explaining as possible. I will try to answer unanswered questions about deriving and building but i might not answer questions beyond, especially questions like "WHEN will price of X be Y?". I have no crystal ball and i'm surely not the Neil Armstrong of this H&S pattern but all output is solely made by me, backed up with six month of learning TA.
Thanks in advance for your kindness, respect and support.
Sincerely
Disclaimer: This is an educational post and not a trade advisory at all. Please do your own research before you draw your own conclusions.
BTC Fractal: Testing this pattern in the long termI found this particular pattern recurring in every smaller time frame, including the 1 minute candlesticks. After a major correction, this fractal shape ensues.
I am going to just leave this here.
Obviously, I don't expect this to be accurate one bit. Just a lesson on fractals if it is :)
1987- 2018 Fractal UpdateFractal now tracking the 87 top and starting to test resistance, which might take a couple of weeks more ( the comparison daily/weekly here is on purpose as what has been led us here is the mere structure). Beyond the potential catalysts on the table ( too many actually for choosing one ) for a downturn of 87 proportion in 2018, the next two swings gotta be confirmed by year end first, starting with a test of 20K area this summer.
Explaining fractals within fractals. 15 min. vs. 5 minute charts15 minute and 5 minute charts are really low timeframes already. Especially for swing traders so let me be clear about the fact that higher timeframe and lower timeframe are to be seen as relative terms here.
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We can see the following happening:
- in the 15min timeframe there's a clear accumulation going on.
- There's a run up towards old resistance and an old bearish orderblock (which I've not indicated)
- There's a smart money reversal
Then the interesting stuff happens.
- Because of the initial drop down from the smart money reversal, the 5 minute timeframe shows an optimal entry for a buy. So there's some accumulation of long orders happening.
- The lower timeframe makes a run towards resistance, accumulates there and then goes higher to form another high.
- The lower timeframe also creates a smart money reversal
- A lower timeframe low risk sell (which is also the same for the higher timeframe as this would have been the entire consolidation at the top there)
- We can see price drop with certainty, moving away from the consolidation there
- A very small consolidation forming distribution for the 5 minute chart and then
- Another drop down to arrive at the new distribution/re-accumulation zone for the smaller timeframe.
This is the important part.
Normally the 5 minute timeframe would continue stacking long orders here, but because of the higher timeframe premise, they should not.
- We can clearly see that the smaller timeframe distribution zone is actually the 1st distribution zone for the larger timeframe.
- Then another drop occurs and the larger timeframe arrived at it's destination. Presumably trapping or stopping out 5 minute chart traders.
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Both buyers and sellers can be right within both bullish and bearish markets. This is only to show why one side of the market tends to make a mistake opposite to another. Note: this serves for my own training purposes, again setting in stone whatever I've learned from the ICT.