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Fractal

XAUUSD WYCKOFF DISTRIBUTION EXAMPLEHello traders, we would like to share some value knowledge, about structure based mostly on Wyckoff schematics. As an example u have marked up area identify by us as Wyckoff distribution schematic to help u get deeper understanding about markets and printed structure itself. Please, scroll left and right chart to see multiple examples of accumulation and distribution schematics. Hopefully this will help u get some breakthrough in your trading journey. God bless u all.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by Snipers-Academy
2
GBPNZD WYCKOFF SCHEMATICS EXAMPLESHello traders, we would like to share some value knowledge, about structure based mostly on Wyckoff schematics. As an example u have marked up few areas identify by us on multiple TF to help u deeper understanding about markets and printed structure itself. Please, scroll left and right chart to see multiple examples of accumulation and distribution schematics. Hopefully this will help u get some breakthrough in your trading journey. God bless u all.
Education
by Snipers-Academy
Where are all the fractals?Hello, I do not understand. I saw every day a new fractal showing that the price of ponzicoin would go up. But now, that we are in a situation exactly similar to Dec 2017, there are no fractal. That does not seem very objective... It's almost depressing, that the human gene pool contains "this". BTC went up up up until CME futures opened and then down down down. The top was the exact day when CME BTC futures were released. BTC hodlers are repeating the same thing. Exact same scenario. They are convinced BTC will go to a mighty bull market because of ICE futures. Emmm ok? I do not think I am being unfair when I say they are thick headed. Of course, I see these clowns repeat "Bakkt bakkt" I got a feeling that they do not even know what it is. The futures market is in a duopoly, CME is the biggest one, ICE the other one. CME GROUP INC ==> 73.7 Billion Market cap. (Chicago Mercantile Exchange). Big on indices, fx, metals, energy futures. Also big on certain agri (Corn Wheat Soybean). ICE GROUP INC ==> 50.95 Billion Market cap. (INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE INC). Afaik their only big futures are the "other" agri Sugar 11, Cotton, Cocoa, Coffee. (Actually the 2nd biggest futures exchange in the world is the National Stock Exchange of India and ICE is 3rd, CBOE Holdings are 4rth far behind - 12B mcap - they opened BTC futures the 7 dec 2017). The ICE is known mostly for the New York Stock Exchange. The CBOE is bigger on options I think. The big big futures exchange is the CME. They have a great site with a ton of content, their products work very well. I expect ICE futures to do less volume than the CME past the potential hype of the first days, even with all the marketing they did. BTC might pump short term (good short entry on a double top at 14k) but idk the world has their eyes on Iran and oil lmao no one important will care about your magical internet beans. I expect the launch to be a complete failure and after that nice flop the ICE will remove BTC futures just like the CBOE did, and only CME will remain. Just like with all US treasury bonds. And with all US indices. And with Oil and NatGas. And with Gold and Silver. And with Grains. And with Copper. Hehe. Here is the CME site: www.cmegroup.com They have daily volumes of about $250 million on BTC (past month). Coinbase does about $100 million, Bitstamp about $65 million, Kraken $50 million (not counting the euro part that is about as big). As a comparison, (WT Sweet Light) Crude Oil futures have volumes typically of about 1 to 1.5 million futures a day on the CME, in dollar this means, since the price of Oil is and has been around $60 - 60 million. Nah just kidding 1 future = 1000 barrels, so it's 60 billions. Idk how much brent does, they are mainly traded via the ICE, their site... I just can't... They do 20 times less I think. E-mini S&P futures do about 2 million contracts volume => 300 billion :D Gold futures make about $75 billion 10Y Treasury Notes ~ $350 billion I think (and volume oscillates a ton). 1400 times more. Natural Gas (Henry Hub) that is half as volatile as BTC (sometimes more) does ~$13 billion (not counting options and other products). 50 times more. Even Grain no one ever talks about that have 3 followers does way more than 1 million reddit subs biggest community than all stocks put together Bitcoin. These days Corn is doing ~5 billion+ Wheat ~2.5 billion Soybean ~9 billion. Rekt. And the CME is putting crypto forward. And they are the biggest. Big money is not stepping in. Big money still thinks it is a ponzi. No one that knows what they are doing cares about magical internet beans (other than to make fun of it). Even with the immense amount of hype and the massive fanbase around Bitcoin, BTC futures do tiny volumes compared to obscure products such as "RBOB Gasoline" (50 times more volume than BTC, what is this even? xd), "Soybean Oil futures" (even this does 10 times BTC) or "Live cattle" (20 times). Even Mont Belvieu LDH Propane (OPIS) Futures does more than BTC :D Does anyone know what this thing even is? LOL! NY Harbor ULSD? I have not a clue what this is, but they have 60 times the volume of giga hype every one talks about it BTC. Single stocks during the dot com bubble had more volume than BTC as we know anyway. Keep praying that suddenly big money movers are going to get interested after ignoring your ponzi scheme for years, just because the ICE offers a new way to speculate on it, and gave it its own name, and did alot of marketting. Let me quote Nelson from the Simpsons: Haha!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
8
BTC FractalTops or bottom formations are not same. Patterns , fractal behaviors are not the same, its like having 2 kids from same parents with 2 different personality or having one hand with 5 different fingers, they are not same as well... This is my take, at least, this is what I look as confirmation to compare apple to apple - MA color flip - Fisher transform bullish Cross but its worth to watch as pattern symmetry This is not financial advise. just for education purposes only. t.me
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Moe_mentum
2
Stocks vs GoldSince 1971 when the USD and most other fiat currencies were not linked to Gold anymore, we haven't seen stocks really go up. Stocks expressed in Gold were already up substantially at the time and after Nixon closed the gold window Stocks dropped 95% against gold. Below I have put the DJIA since 1915 and 1971, as these are the best data we can get. The truth is that on Tradingview I can cleanly analyse only one market at a time as it doesn't have the global combine stock market capitalization. Yes there have been lots of other markets that have gone up since that time and the global economy has definitely grown, but I am here to make certain points based on the fact that the US economy is the largest in the world: A. Since 1971 the US stock market has dropped 95% and 87% and between those two big drops it had a 4000% increase B. At the moment it looks like stocks have started their new bull run in 2011 C. In USD terms the DJIA has been going up for time periods that are a bit longer than the total amount of time it was going down & sideways, the time for the next drop might be almost here. You might be thinking why does that matter? You might think: Gold is pretty useless, it has an inflation rate of about 1-2% and all that matters is that stocks are going up and paying dividends! The truth is that as a whole stocks have performed better than Gold and have provided nice dividends through the years to investors, but Gold has had much less risk and until 2011 it was the best store of value. However you have to understand that this huge rally and these huge drops happened as Central banks and commercial banks globally increased the total money supply (in dollar terms) by about 20-40x. Gold was the soundest money the humanity ever had and moving to a new insane monetary standard distorted things on all markets and created various bubbles. We can see that the global money supply is about 80-90T 'worth of USD' and the total worth of all stocks globally is about 70-80T USD. By following the way new money has been created/printed we can see that stocks have pretty much tracked the global expansion of the money supply. Someone could say that 'look there is 225T worth of real estate', so the global money supply shouldn't matter, however the reality is that: a) stocks pay dividends and their price has some correlation with their dividends and b) stocks need liquidity which comes from money, c) real estate can be used for various things, it is less risky and is market growing with global population and d) there is 245T of global debt makes anyone realize that something isn't right. The funny things is that part of the debt has negative yield and more is going to go negative. This means that Real estate and Bonds are in a much worse bubble that stocks actually are, but they could go much higher. As you can already see, unsound money from governments and Central banks is causing a tremendous misallocation of capital, it is destroying wealth and at the same time it is concentrating wealth to the hands of those that have already had massive wealth. It should be obvious to everyone that US stocks should had been worth much more than they were worth in 1971... or should they? Given that money is a zero sum game, if there wasn't new money being printed, then stocks shouldn't have really moved up or down much. Only really good investments would succeed and pay a dividend, while bad ones would quickly go away. Essentially the value of our money and investments would go up, without a 'special' number going up. There are many more factors playing a role in this, but overall stock markets going up 20-50-100x up is nonsense created by Central banks. Free and non-manipulated markets don't behave like that and don't do crazy things like have 10-20 years long bear markets during peaceful and prosperous times. What has made things a lot better and have prolonged the ability of Central banks to do these crazy things is the technological progress we've had over the last 50 years. Below I've put Nasdaq 100 expressed in Gold which is showing for how long the tech stock bull and bear markets really lasted in the US. To me it shows that there is a high chance that we are in the disbelief phase / 'this is a sucker's rally' phase. This fits nicely with the fact that most people are expecting a recession (and rightfully so), as most people get it wrong and the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. In my opinion this new tech bull run is based on: a) the exponential progress in technology, b) the fact that the market came out of a vicious correction that lasted 12 years, c) gold being controlled by central banks d) gold is 'outdated' in a digital world and e) banning cash, full on negative rates, more money printing, f) a new digital banking system with Central banks creating digital, while they use that money to start buying stocks. However how large is that upside given the current macro picture? How long can the market stay irrational under the current awful global financial conditions? In my honest opinion the upside here is somewhat limited and the risk quite large. Until stocks many new ATHs I'd stay out of stocks, as we could be moving into a recession which could initially cause a drop in stocks. Don't forget that Central banks will try and fight the recession with everything they've got. Also don't forget that the US still remains the best place to put your money in. So in my opinion we will eventually see a prolonged period of stagflation or simply a period where stocks, bonds etc keep going up on a really unsound basis until everything breaks down. No idea when things start breaking down, but the one thing I am certain off is that I wouldn't want to hold much fiat. It is the first time that we are observing such a crazy period of currency wars with a quite a lot of changes on our monetary and payment systems. As I've mentioned before, USD, JPY, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and maybe some stocks (i.e US large tech stocks) are the only assets i'd touch.
TVC:SPXEducation
by BitcoinMacro
"VIX, a powerfull tool to use on SP500" by ThinkingAntsOk -Today we are going to show Vix Index on daily chat compared to SP500 (orange line). The first thing we noticed is the Wedge formations on the chart. -As Vix starts going down, SP500 keeps rising, the concept is that people trust on the strength of the bullish trend, on this process we can see the Wedge patterns on VIX, and bullish trends on SP500. -To see the Wedge Pattern we only need to draw a line between the higher lows on VIX. -OK great! But how can I do something with this? -Let’s see it on this way, imagine you have been following a bullish movement on SP500 and you see that is about to face a major resistance zone and you observe that the bullish trend is losing strength. When you detect this, you are going to Focus you attention on the VIX chart, and you are going to ask yourself the next question. -Is price inside the Wedge Pattern or is about to break out? -If the price has broken out the structure and SP500 is on a Major reversal zone, then, that’s a strong bearish confirmation to start thinking on bearish setups. -Why should I look for bearish setups? Because that means that people is starting to have fear of a possible bearish movement that’s the reason VIX is making new highs and has broken the Wedge pattern, we should complement this by seeing bearish candlesticks on SP500 with high volume on them. -Conclusion: see on the pictures how Vix preceded the beginning of the two previous bearish trends with a breakout signal. -Complementing charts is always a good way of making your setups more solid. *Please note that the above perspective is our view on the market, We do not give signals and take no responsibility for your trades.
CBOE:VIXEducation
by ThinkingAntsOk
1
How to find extremely strong and accurate levels (Must Read!!).I know how to properly identify support and resistance levels that are backed by recent supply or demand. By this I mean, supply is what traders consider to be selling power that makes a currency value go down. Demand is the total opposite as it shows its self as support and encourages a currency's value to go up. With that said, support and resistance or supply and demand are perhaps the single most important concepts in any form of trading. You can easily find these levels if you accurately use past price data (candlesticks) as a reference point to current levels that may or may not break to find the best place to place entries and stop loss. Trading support and resistance levels are so abundant that you can go all the way back to 2010 and pick ANYWHERE to plot lines only to find out that they formed a perfect support or resistance level in the current times of 2018! This is the number reason why it's important to use the most current S&R levels as a reference point to where price is most likely to break through or bounce off. This is from my tradingview. (www.tradingview.com)
Education
by ElieTheForexTraitor
BTC vs The bad Boy of FractalsHi there, welcome to another educational post dealing with fractals. Again i will derive a possible path from a pattern which is not yet completed. So beware that there are many IFs,WOULDs and LIKEHOODs on the way to completion. The market will decide when to go where. IF the pattern gets invalidated we all will be happy in the sight of one thing less to worry about. But in case of the pattern WOULD be completed, i have derived some trend lines from parts of the whole structure. I have colored them accordingly, so you can replicate it later on your own and in any chart you spot suitable fractals on. Looking especially at the downside there is no guarantee IF or WHEN certain levels will be reached. Those levels and trends i derived are there because their existence is defined by kinda geometric rules. I derived and cloned some more as needed to verify them against each other and reveal the IMPLICATED error rate of the painting. The target levels are indicators for the potential of the pattern. Nothing more, nothing less. As this trend lines imply an error rate, as stated before, please see all derived data as estimates. You probably can derive more trend lines from this pattern but this set fits the educational purpose. I have put some effort in making the chart and process of creation as self-explaining as possible. I will try to answer unanswered questions about deriving and building but i might not answer questions beyond, especially questions like "WHEN will price of X be Y?". I have no crystal ball and i'm surely not the Neil Armstrong of this H&S pattern but all output is solely made by me, backed up with six month of learning TA. Thanks in advance for your kindness, respect and support. Sincerely Disclaimer: This is an educational post and not a trade advisory at all. Please do your own research before you draw your own conclusions.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by EduardZimmermann
1
Explaining fractals within fractals. 15 min. vs. 5 minute charts15 minute and 5 minute charts are really low timeframes already. Especially for swing traders so let me be clear about the fact that higher timeframe and lower timeframe are to be seen as relative terms here. ----- We can see the following happening: - in the 15min timeframe there's a clear accumulation going on. - There's a run up towards old resistance and an old bearish orderblock (which I've not indicated) - There's a smart money reversal Then the interesting stuff happens. - Because of the initial drop down from the smart money reversal, the 5 minute timeframe shows an optimal entry for a buy. So there's some accumulation of long orders happening. - The lower timeframe makes a run towards resistance, accumulates there and then goes higher to form another high. - The lower timeframe also creates a smart money reversal - A lower timeframe low risk sell (which is also the same for the higher timeframe as this would have been the entire consolidation at the top there) - We can see price drop with certainty, moving away from the consolidation there - A very small consolidation forming distribution for the 5 minute chart and then - Another drop down to arrive at the new distribution/re-accumulation zone for the smaller timeframe. This is the important part. Normally the 5 minute timeframe would continue stacking long orders here, but because of the higher timeframe premise, they should not. - We can clearly see that the smaller timeframe distribution zone is actually the 1st distribution zone for the larger timeframe. - Then another drop occurs and the larger timeframe arrived at it's destination. Presumably trapping or stopping out 5 minute chart traders. -------- Both buyers and sellers can be right within both bullish and bearish markets. This is only to show why one side of the market tends to make a mistake opposite to another. Note: this serves for my own training purposes, again setting in stone whatever I've learned from the ICT.
Education
by UnknownUnicorn468659
1