Every excess detected at resistance, 100% sure sell.
1) Very tight channel detect here with 3 excess and currently forming 4rd an excess. I prefer to sell when price with excess at a value high.
2) The tail should be in excess is more accurate.
--> First condition meet here, short at a higher price will be great. Each trade must have a protective stop, therefore keep your stop above resistance.
---> Wait for the 2nd condition to meet and enjoy 99% accurate trade.
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It is not gambling if you know what you’re doing. It is gambling if you’re just throwing money into a deal and praying. - by Kinnari Prajapati
Pivot Points
95% WINRATE STRATEGY? (MUST WATCH!) PART 3/3There’s a better way to do things. I don’t care what you’re using, maybe, just maybe, there’s a way to improve your strategy. I can confirm this idea is seen as wildly offensive. Ask someone why their strategy works and they’ll cringe like you just asked them if their spouse is cheating. “How dare you question their effectiveness! I’ll let you know we have a long history together and I love them very much.” I’m sure you do, but have you noticed some of the warning signs? They’re all right there in front of you. It may not feel good when I ask, but if the signs are there and 3/4ths of marriages fail, it wouldn’t sit well with me if I didn’t speak up just to keep you comfy cozy.
Analogies aside, your “spouse” is your strategy. The warning sign is that you keep on losing trades, blaming your loses on “volatility” without wanting to admit what the real problem is. Perhaps you’re still green for now, just wait for a larger sample size of a trade history. Much like your imaginary marriage, the odds are wildly against you. Why do you think 95 plus percent of traders fail? You can massage data however you like, the problem is at some point you decided to stop improving because you got confident.
EURUSD Perfect Pivot Play : EU pivoting downwardHere is a great example of how TV's free indicator "Pivot Points Standard" can be used.
EU started this Month in a Picture Perfect fashion, for anybody watching Pivot Points.
Pivot traders take Swings that start or end at the Central Pivot, of the timeframe of interest.
Pivot Strategy :
If rejected from Daily Central, target the daily M1.
If rejected from Weekly Central, target the weekly M1.
If rejected from Monthly Central, target monthly M1.
(or vice versa, swing from M1 to the Central).
That term ''Pivot'' is used to describe many different things by different people.
BUT there is only ONE true ''Pivot Point'', per each period.
The above chart has Daily (blue), Weekly (green) and Monthly (brown) pivots .
See my three chapter Guide to Pivot Points: one of TV's greatest free tools'' below :
LTCUSD Pivot Point study: LItecoin shows it knows PivotsThis is a current example of TV's free ''Pivot Points Standard'' indicator.
All of those Pivot lines are drawn at the beginning of each period.
They do not 'repaint' like most other indicators, making for good targets.
Last week was a perfect Pivot trade, weekly R1 to S1, a common swing.
This week the Monthly (new for Jan.) Pivot was found to be support.
So it is possible that the Monthly R1 will be hit before the end of Jan.
NOTE
The term ''Pivot'' or ''Pivot Point'' is used in different manners by different people.
But originally, that term described a very specific method of calculating pivot price points.
TV has captured that original method, in the standard indicator ''Pivot Points Standard''.
Here is a 3-chapter guide to using TV's indicator
XMRBTC pivot point play: Monero at a Central ClusterXMRBTC is at an interesting price, for anybody watching Pivot Points.
That term ''Pivot'' is used to describe many different things by different people.
BUT there is only ONE true ''Pivot Point'', per each period.
The above chart is showing Weekly (green) and Monthly (brown) pivots.
See my three chapter Guide to Pivot Points: one of TV's greatest free tools'' below:
HOW TO TRADE WITH THE TREND + IDENTIFY TREND REVERSALS / VIDEO This is a 9 minute video that covers how to ensure you are trading on the right side of the trend.
Lots of good stuff on this topic, unfortunately it's impossible to cover everything in the 10 minute limit provided by TradingView for videos, so if you have any questions please feel free to get in touch.
A 100 pip short based on a support-to-resistance flipFirst of all, this is the ICT Breaker concept from ICT (Inner Circle Trader) on YouTube, all credit goes to him.
I've outlined a nice example of this strategy in the chart. I use this a lot and it's really simple to understand and notice once you catch a few of them.
I'd love to see you try to find more examples. Feel free to post them in the comments and we can discuss them!
Things to look for:
- Same concept applies for longs, but inverse.
- The candle block you're using must precede a move that takes out a previous swing point (low or high).
- If the price does retrace to that block as you expect, but starts consolidating and pushes back into it repeatedly, it could be a sign that it wants to move back through it. The market is sometimes tricky like that.
Also, here's a bonus confluence factor - if you pull the fib retrace tool from the top to the bottom of the move, you can see that our block falls right between .62 and .79 fib levels. This is another good indicator to confirm your bias.
The Power of Camarilla Pivots2018 has been a marvelous year of range between the R3 and S3 Year Camarilla pivots for multiple instruments including metals, currencies, and indices.
This is the busiest chart I will show and for a reason.
I only buy gold 2X per year, the seasonal July top in the equity market (July 22 on average) and December 15 after the 4th Quarter Fed announcement.
2013 Neckline shown
Schiff pitchfork that perfectly fits the current weekly data
Gold range for 2018 has been near perfect CAM (Camarilla) R3 to S3. This is classic CAM strategy.
MFI (top indicator) oversold
Larry Connors RSI and RSI-2 at bottom oversold
DXY
Top is just under the Year Pivot and Year CAM R3.
Top is near the midline of major weekly pitchfork guiding the current trend.
Bottom for the year is near exactly Year CAM S3.
USDCHF
False breakout for USDCHF.
Bottom of the year was Year CAM S4
Top is Year CAM R3
EURUSD
Main Chart window.
2018 Top is Year CAM R3
2018 Bottom is Year CAM S3
GBPUSD
2018 Bottom was 2 pips off Year CAM S3 and Year Pivot
The fact that the Pivot and S3 are so close together makes for huge support
What does all of this mean? I trade Camarilla pivots probably 50% of the time, and the general rule of them when you witness a Level 3 to Level 3 movement, whether that be Day, Week, Month, Year Pivots, is that we revert to the previous period close. This would mean that by the end of the year, we revert to the 2017 close for all of these instruments. I can show countless examples of this.
Final thing, the SPX 20 Year Seasonal , which we are following to a T for the month of July. On average DXY tops in July with stocks. I closed my ES futures long positions this week as we just hit the 78.6% Retracement target again, as well as Year CAM R3.
SPX500 looks like it is making a perfect Gartley top with an inner zig-zag completed by an impulse wave. As much as I don’t like to listen to the pundits out there calling for danger, it feels like a 1987 style October is coming this year. I suspect that will kick the above chart of SPX futures down to the Year CAM S4 near 2420.00, but that is my personal pipe dream.
Testing New StrategyUsing pivots, Fibonacci and trend lines. Blue boxes are zones. If the price breaks any of the zones, I predict the price to go on that direction once there is confirmation on the hourly chart e.g. engulfing candle. Currently, box has broken for a downtrend. This is just a test and in the future will add in targets and stop losses (but the blue box zones can be an indication of those).
Guide to Pivot Points: one of TV's greatest free toolsHow I use the free Pivot Points indicator.
There is a lot of be said about "Pivots" and a lot of people mean different things with that word.
What I am showing is the ''Old-School'' definition of that term.
Pivots are as simple as this:
(H+L+C)/3 of the previous period = Center Pivot (P) in current period.
The the 'Support' (Sx) and 'Resistance' (Rx) pivots are calculated based on above equation.
There are many variations used these days, but the ''Traditional'' is the first, and I think most commonly used.
What do they tell you?
The seem to make good TARGETS for a move, and often lose energy there.
Many traders will look to take profits at a Pivot, which is obvious in above chart.
I will add updates with more explanations later, after this is up.
How to enter a trade (entry signals) for CTR/BTC price spikeHi all.
I've had some PM's about the price spike we had for CTR/BTC over the last 24 hours, given that I did some analysis on this a few days back.
I've recorded this vid to provide some context around what you should have been looking for! There's also some time spent on what not to do, which will hopefully be useful for newer traders.
Hope it's useful. Let me know any feedback or other things that you would like covered.
Cheers and good luck,
RJR
THE IMPORTANCE OF VOLUME ANALYSIS: Part IIThe wave is currently finalized and is working as planned:
I ended the previous post pointing at the lack of the volume required to confirm trend reversal at supposed point 5.
And in fact, for quite a while the price kept slowly drifting up and down without substantial moves in any direction.
This situation lasted until bearish volume spike on 07/11 that initiated real trend reversal.
It is also necessary to point out that though that spike was only medium in nature, but the change in its volume compared to previous data was sudden and drastic.
Later the volume changes were driving the price accordingly up and down, but most importantly the local bearish trend was established and continued successfully.
Currently, the price is close to the crossing of the line 2-4 at which volume dynamics should be carefully monitored as this may provide a good tip if this is really the end of the analyzed downtrend.
If you have any questions, feel free to ask in comments or PM me.
ES- Day Trading With Pivot Point StrategyYou might want to read and watch some You Tube video's on: Day Trading with Pivot Points Strategy
* Always use 5 minute time frames to do the following:
Previous days: High, Low & Close
Pivot Point (P)= (High + Low + close) divided by 3
Support 1 (S1) = (P x 2) – High
Support 2 (S2) = P – (High – Low)
Resistance 1 (R1) = (P x 2) – Low
Resistance 2 (R2) = P + (High - Low)
Yes, you can put a 3rd Support and Resistance on your charts, if you would like too. I can't put a 5 minute chart here (so PRETEND), noted 15 mn is a 5mn one.
Famous Filtered Pivots Indicator - Many Time Frames Available!!!CM_Pivot Points_M-W-D-4H-1H_Filtered
***Special Thanks to TheLark...AKA...The Coding Genius For Providing His Expertise...
***New Feature - Ability to turn On/Off Pivot Moving Average
***New Feature - Ability to turn On/Off Filtered Pivots (Explained Below)
Available Timeframes (Change In Inputs Tab):
1 Hour
4 Hour
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Yearly
***All Features Available in Inputs Tab
-Ability to Plot just 1, or all Pivot Timeframes
-Defaults to Monthly Pivots
-Ability to turn On/Off Pivot Moving Average
-Ability to turn On/Off Filtered Pivots
-Ability to Plot S3 and R3 on 1 Hour and 4 Hour Pivots
***FILTERED PIVOTS!!!
-THIS IS A WAY TO FIND THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY MOVES
-IF CURRENT PIVOT IS GREATER THAN PREVIOUS PIVOT (INCLUDING MARKET THRESHOLD CALCULATION) THEN PIVOT, S1, & R2 PLOT
-IF CURRENT PIVOT IS LESS THAN PREVIOUS PIVOT (INCLUDING MARKET THRESHOLD CALCULATION) THEN PIVOT, S2, & R1 PLOT
-***THIS IS A WAY TO FILTER OUT PIVOTS AND ONLY PLOT THE LEVELS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAJOR SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
***VIDEO COMING SOON WHERE i WILL GO OVER IN DETAIL THE THOUGHT PROCESS AND METHODOLOGY
Link To Code Below Under Related Ideas
New Pivot Bands Indicator W/ Link To Video Explaining Features!CM_Pivot Bands V1
Special Thanks to Michael S for Introducing Code.
Instead of a Long Write Up I Recorded A 8 Minute Video Going Into Detail On V1 Of This Indicator. Please View To See My Initial Findings, My Thoughts For V2, And Items I Need YOUR Help With!!!
In Inputs Tab Indicator Has Ability to Turn On/Off Multiple TimeFrames…Thought Process Explained In Video.
Link To Video:
vimeopro.com
Link To PDF Mentioned In Video:
d.pr
Pivots Indicator - I Made A Living Trading This System For 2 YrsCustom Pivots Indicator - Plots Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly, and Daily Levels.
For 2 years I traded this system Exclusively and made a nice living. The reason I created this indicator Vs. the one on TradingView is mentioned in the last line on the first post.
See First Post For Details….