Trend Based Fib Extension (PRO HACK) SUPPORT & RESISTANCE is one of the most important key elements in trading.
Without knowing the key Support & Resistance levels, you will never have a true understanding of where the market could go to or reverse from.
One very important factor worth knowing is the markets overall, trend Support & Resistance levels. While there are a lot of different methods in finding these levels, like pivot points, previous day high and low, or monthly or yearly and so on. One of the most promising, tried and tested ways is to use a Fibonacci Tool.
Now YES, there are MANY Fibonacci Tools to choose from and use but if you need to know the fib levels for a trend, use the TREND BASED FIB EXTENSION.
Along with using the TREND BASED FIB EXTENSION, you need to know the correct time frame to actually plot this tool on.
There is no right or wrong time frame nor is there no right or wrong way in plotting this tool, BUT we need to know and understand the overall picture of the market as a whole and if you are thinking about the market as a whole, we need to use the correct time frame to show us that.
So we turn to the 12M TIME FRAME!
The 12M Time Frame is what's going to show us the OVERALL TREND of the asset we are looking at, from the start right to current time.
Now keep in mind that this can work on EVERY SINGLE ASSET.
We use the 12M time frame because we need to plot the trend base fib extension to show us our MAJOR FIBONACCI SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS. These levels are for the OVERALL TREND OF THE GIVEN ASSET. By plotting it this way we actually have an idea as to where the market is going LONG TERM.
So head over to whichever asset you are tracking, choose the 12M time frame and make your chart large enough to fit the screen.
In order to plot this tool, you need to know your highs and lows because this tool is used from your lowest point to the first swing high and down to your next swing low, once those 3 are connected the tool will automatically plot your levels.
One easy way to find your swing highs and lows is to use a ZIGZAG with a length of either 1 or 2. That setting will give you the most accurate points.
In the drawing tool box you can you the TREND BASED FIB EXTENSION tool, once you select it and you know where your 3 points are then you plot it accordingly, you will start from your Lowest, to your Swing High and then down to your Swing Low.
To get accurate plots, use the data window and get the exact low and high prices and enter the accordingly into the fib tool settings (coordinates tab).
Adjust your settings with your style preferences, the fib levels that you want to see on your chart, and once done, lock the tool in place and BOOM, YOU NOW HAVE YOUR MAJOR ALL TIME SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS PLOTTED ON YOUR CHART.
Now you have a full understanding on the market overall trend by knowing where the major support and resistance levels are.
You can go back to your lower time frame in which you trade from and now you will have a much clearer understanding as to where the market might stop or reverse from, according to the bigger picture.
With that in place, you can use other methods of confluence to get entries, set stops, find direction, you can even go down to lower time frames to use a Fibonacci retracement tool or the trend based fib extension to get sniper entries and set targets.
The key takeaway from this is for you to know the overall direction of the market you are trading and to know where potential areas of support and resistances are which leads to the major reversals in the market.
I do hope this publication helps you in some way or another, even if it helped just 1 person out of many, I will be glad.
HAPPY TRADING :)
==if you have any questions then please drop a comment, thanks==
Trend
Trend lines - how to build them and how to use them?Before we dive into the world of trend lines, I recommend familiarizing yourself with the support and resistance zone
Here we go:
Trend lines are one of the most universal tools for trading in any market, used in intraday, swing and position trading strategies. Properly drawn on charts, they help to predict the direction of price movement and identify trend reversals.
In addition, trend lines help you to accurately determine the optimal entry and exit points, as well as set a stop loss.
It is recommended not to rely on trend lines alone, but to integrate them with other methods of technical analysis, expanding your trading arsenal.
Often many traders draw too many lines, it is uninformative and useless
How to place trend lines on a chart?
An uptrend is a combination of at least two pullbacks
Similar in a downtrend:
Instructions for markings:
Find at least two points on the chart
Connect them with a line
But, let's remember the Axiom:
1. Randomness
2. Coincidence.
3. Regularity
Until a trendline is pushed back a third time - it is considered unconfirmed...
Once the third bounce has occurred, the line can be considered valid, but does not guarantee that it will necessarily bounce the fourth time!
Like all patterns in the market, trend patterns can be drawn on any timeframe, also - they are more effective on older ones (as well as all others)
How to use trend lines in your trading?
Frequent trades from a trend line are rebound or breakout trades
Example:
Trendline confirmed (bounced three times) - on the fourth approach we can pay attention - what happens next? Price will either bounce from our trendline again or there will be a breakout
Next example:
How can we determine whether there will be a breakout or a bounce? As I said before, you need to take into account the context: indicators, price action, nearby levels and so on (it all depends on your psychology)
How do trend lines fit together?
Support and resistance levels are areas on a chart that indicate potential pressure (on a side)
The same principle applies to trend lines. The only difference is that trend lines are sloped rather than horizontal.
How to properly label/draw trend lines?
Which trend lines are important and which ones should be ignored?
Focus only on the major pivot points
Connect at least two major pivot points.
Adjust the slope of the line to get the most amount of price touching the line, whether it is the shadows of candles or their bodies.
Important clarification - trend lines represent a support zone, not specific levels.
How can you use trend lines?
The trend is our friend. Where the trend goes, so goes we. Trading against the trend is foolish. If you do decide to do it, it must be justified!
Trend lines are the direction of the current market.
Also the trend line itself can be divided into two positions:
If the trend becomes flatter, it means that the market is moving into a state of consolidation
If the trend is becoming steeper, it means that the trend is getting stronger (or perhaps it is reaching its climax and is approaching its final stage).
Trend Lines Entry Point:
Like all other patterns in technical analysis or price action - trend lines can help you find a more favorable entry point in terms of risk-to-reward ratio
How to use a trend line to identify a market reversal?
Chances are you have encountered this before. There is a trend line breakout, you are already expecting a trend reversal, but the market continues its original movement
Like all indicators/patterns - not a panacea. Each strategy has its own risks, just when we add other osnovnopologologayuschih signs to one strategy, the chance of risking a loss - decreases!
Technique for determining a trend reversal:
Wait for a trend breakout
Wait for a lower low/maximum to form.
If the price breaks the previous minimum/maximum, most likely the trend will go in the direction of the breakdown...
SMART MONEY CONCEPT EXPLAINEDThe Smart Money Concept (SMC) involves understanding the behavior and strategies of institutional investors to inform trading decisions. Within SMC, there are several key components and strategies, including concepts like CHoCH (Change of Character), BOS (Break of Structure), FVG (Fair Value Gap), and others. Here's an in-depth explanation of these concepts:
1. Change of Character (CHoCH)
Definition
CHoCH refers to a significant shift in market sentiment or trend. It's a point where the market changes direction, indicating a potential reversal.
Identification
Higher Highs to Lower Lows (or vice versa): In an uptrend, CHoCH occurs when the market stops making higher highs and starts making lower lows, signaling a possible downtrend.
Volume and Momentum Shifts: Increased volume or momentum in the opposite direction can also indicate a change of character.
Application
Entry/Exit Points: CHoCH helps traders identify potential entry and exit points by signaling when a trend might be reversing.
2. Break of Structure (BOS)
Definition
BOS occurs when the price breaks a significant support or resistance level, indicating a continuation or reversal of the trend.
Identification
Support/Resistance Levels: When price breaks these levels with strong momentum, it signals a BOS.
Swing Highs and Lows: A break above a previous swing high or below a previous swing low is considered a BOS.
Application
Trend Confirmation: BOS helps confirm the direction of the trend, allowing traders to align their trades with the prevailing market direction.
3. Fair Value Gap (FVG)
Definition
FVG represents a price gap left in the market where there was a rapid price movement, often due to high volatility or significant market orders.
Identification
Price Gaps: FVGs are visible as gaps on the price chart where little to no trading occurred.
Imbalance Zones: These are zones where the buying and selling are not balanced, leading to rapid price movement.
Application
Retracement Points: FVGs often act as magnets for price, as the market tends to revisit these gaps to fill them, providing potential retracement or entry points for traders.
4. Other Major Parts of the Smart Money Concept
Liquidity Pools
Definition: Areas in the market where a large number of orders are clustered, typically around key support and resistance levels.
Application: Institutions often target these areas to trigger stop-loss orders, creating liquidity for their trades.
Order Blocks
Definition: Consolidation areas where institutions place large buy or sell orders, creating a base for future price movement.
Identification: These are visible as zones of consolidation on the chart.
Application: Order blocks can act as strong support or resistance levels, providing potential entry or exit points.
Institutional Candles
Definition: Large candlesticks that represent significant institutional activity.
Identification: These candles are usually much larger than the surrounding ones and often occur at key levels.
Application: They signal strong buying or selling interest from institutions, indicating potential future price direction.
Stop Hunts
Definition: The practice where institutions push the price to trigger stop-loss orders placed by retail traders to create liquidity.
Identification: Sudden, sharp price movements towards obvious stop-loss levels.
Application: Recognizing stop hunts can prevent premature exits and provide entry points at better prices.
Market Cycles
Accumulation Phase: Period where smart money is building positions, often characterized by sideways price movement with low volatility.
Mark-Up Phase: After accumulation, the price starts to move upward rapidly as institutions push the market in their favor.
Distribution Phase: Institutions begin to offload their positions, leading to sideways movement with high volatility.
Mark-Down Phase: Following distribution, the price moves downward rapidly as institutions sell off their positions.
Understanding my SPY Cycle Patterns - Bottom-103This video highlights the Bottom-103 pattern and how price action (support/resistance/rejection) can be used to confirm and execute better trades.
This is something most traders will easily understand as a BOTTOM pattern reflects a possible bullish price trend - except when price rejects this setup and trends downward.
Learn how my SPY cycle patterns can help you become a better trader.
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part XII - 6-4-24 FlagsPart XII
I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups.
Essentially, it comes down to three key components...
A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length).
B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low.
C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend.
Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated.
I go over multiple techniques in this video.
Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory
Anchor Bars (breakaway bars)
Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending
Stochastics
RSI
Wave formations (ZigZag)
and Others
This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style.
Hope you enjoy.
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part X - EOD 2 Min ES RecapPart X - End Of Day 2 Min ES Recap
I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups.
Essentially, it comes down to three key components...
A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length).
B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low.
C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend.
Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated.
I go over multiple techniques in this video.
Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory
Anchor Bars (breakaway bars)
Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending
Stochastics
RSI
Wave formations (ZigZag)
and Others
This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style.
Hope you enjoy.
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part IX - ES Breakdown To SupportPart IX
I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups.
Essentially, it comes down to three key components...
A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length).
B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low.
C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend.
Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated.
I go over multiple techniques in this video.
Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory
Anchor Bars (breakaway bars)
Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending
Stochastics
RSI
Wave formations (ZigZag)
and Others
This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style.
Hope you enjoy.
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part VIII - Learning PatiencePart VIII
I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups.
Essentially, it comes down to three key components...
A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length).
B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low.
C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend.
Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated.
I go over multiple techniques in this video.
Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory
Anchor Bars (breakaway bars)
Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending
Stochastics
RSI
Wave formations (ZigZag)
and Others
This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style.
Hope you enjoy.
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part VI - 2 Min ES ChartPart VI
I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups.
Essentially, it comes down to three key components...
A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length).
B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low.
C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend.
Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated.
I go over multiple techniques in this video.
Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory
Anchor Bars (breakaway bars)
Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending
Stochastics
RSI
Wave formations (ZigZag)
and Others
This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style.
Hope you enjoy.
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part VPart V - Deploying Success/Failure Techniques
I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups.
Essentially, it comes down to three key components...
A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length).
B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low.
C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend.
Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated.
I go over multiple techniques in this video.
Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory
Anchor Bars (breakaway bars)
Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending
Stochastics
RSI
Wave formations (ZigZag)
and Others
This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style.
Hope you enjoy.
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part IVPart IV - Decision Making (A vs B)
I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups.
Essentially, it comes down to three key components...
A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length).
B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low.
C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend.
Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated.
I go over multiple techniques in this video.
Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory
Anchor Bars (breakaway bars)
Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending
Stochastics
RSI
Wave formations (ZigZag)
and Others
This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style.
Hope you enjoy.
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part IIIPart III
I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups.
Essentially, it comes down to three key components...
A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length).
B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low.
C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend.
Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated.
I go over multiple techniques in this video.
Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory
Anchor Bars (breakaway bars)
Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending
Stochastics
RSI
Wave formations (ZigZag)
and Others
This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style.
Hope you enjoy.
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part IIPart I
I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups.
Essentially, it comes down to three key components...
A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length).
B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low.
C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend.
Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated.
I go over multiple techniques in this video.
Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory
Anchor Bars (breakaway bars)
Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending
Stochastics
RSI
Wave formations (ZigZag)
and Others
This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style.
Hope you enjoy.
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part IPart I
I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups.
Essentially, it comes down to three key components...
A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length).
B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low.
C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend.
Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated.
I go over multiple techniques in this video.
Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory
Anchor Bars (breakaway bars)
Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending
Stochastics
RSI
Wave formations (ZigZag)
and Others
This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style.
Hope you enjoy.
SPY Fibonacci Price Theory And BreakOut BarsThis instructional video teaches you the basics of Fibonacci Price Theory in conjunction with Breakout Bars and how price is the ultimate indicator.
Throughout this video, I try to provide instruction on key elements related to the Fibonacci Price Theory (Unique & Standout Highs/Lows). Additionally, I've also included Breakout Bars and Fibonacci Price Retracement concepts.
What I really hope you learn from this video is to see price as the true ultimate indicator for your trading decisions. Using technical analysis techniques is fine, but use price as the key element when trying to confirm or reject your trading ideas.
I hope this helps you understand that price, action, and reaction through trends, peaks, and troughs are the most important components of the chart. Everything else is peripheral.
TrendsThe trend represents the directional movement of prices and plays an essential role in most technical trading systems. Technical analysis differentiates between trending and non-trending markets, also called flat trending markets. Trending markets can be either moving upwards or downwards. The upward-moving market is called the bull market, while the downward-moving market is called the bear market. Normally, a market is considered to be in an uptrend when the price reaches higher peaks and higher troughs. On the contrary, the market is regarded to be in a downtrend when the price reaches lower troughs and lower peaks. The non-trending market occurs when there is no significant uptrend or downtrend, and the price moves within a certain range. Thus, the flat trending market is notorious for its sideways-moving price action.
Key takeaways:
Trends can vary in length and are classified into four main categories: primary, secondary, minor, and intraday.
The primary trend is the most significant trend, lasting for months or years. It's characterized by the overall direction of the market.
The secondary trend opposes the primary trend and usually lasts for weeks or months.
Identifying trends is crucial for technical traders. Methods range from simple tracking of recent lows and highs to more complex mathematical formulas.
Trend classification
Trends tend to be of different lengths. According to these lengths, trends fall into four main categories: primary trend, secondary trend, minor trend, and intraday trend. The primary trend is the only inviolable trend and lasts for a long period, usually months or years. The secondary trend runs counter to the primary trend and is often measured in weeks or months. Further, the minor trend is measured in days, and the intraday trend is represented merely by daily fluctuations in price.
The primary trend
The primary trend can be subdivided into three distinctive phases. The first phase of the primary uptrend begins with the revival of investors' confidence from the prior primary downtrend. That is followed by the second phase, in which asset prices increase in response to growing corporate earnings. In the third stage, speculation becomes the dominant force driving markets higher. This environment, when asset prices are rising on the hopes, dreams, and expectations of individual investors, tends to foreshadow the beginning of the primary downtrend. Its first phase commences with the abandonment of hopes and dreams upon which investments were made. That is followed by selling pressure due to falling corporate earnings in the second phase, which later escalates into panic selling in the third stage.
Illustration 1.01
The illustration displays the weekly chart of Nasdaq continuous futures (NQ1!) for the period between late 2001 and 2008. The primary bull market began after the bottom of the “dotcom” bubble and lasted until the peak of the real estate and credit crisis in 2007.
Illustration 1.02
The image above presents the daily chart of gold (XAUUSD) during the 2008 bear market when it dropped 34%.
The secondary trend
The secondary trend is the intermediate-term trend. Its direction is opposite to the primary trend, and it represents any significant price drop in the primary bull market or price rise in the primary bear market. The secondary trend usually lasts for weeks or months. Its measure in percentage terms tends to range between 33% and 66% of the range of the primary trend. This trend is considered to be prone to market manipulation as opposed to the primary trend.
Illustration 1.03
The picture shows Bayerische Motoren Werke's (BMW) daily chart throughout 2020 and 2021. The white dashed-line box indicates the primary uptrend, and the grey dashed-line boxes indicate the secondary trends, counter to the primary one.
The minor and intraday trend
The minor trend lasts for a few days or weeks, yet always less than the secondary trend. It is more difficult to identify than previous types of trends since its amplitude in percentage terms is significantly less when compared to the primary and secondary trends. The same applies to the intraday trend that lasts for a few seconds up to several hours; it represents daily changes in the price and is regarded to have little predictive value.
Trend identification
Identifying a trend is crucial for a trend-based technical trader, and there are plenty of methods how to identify it correctly. These methods can be simple or very complex. The simplest method of identifying trends can be done by tracking recent lows and recent highs in the price of an asset. Other simple methods involve using lines, trendlines, and curves; more complex methods usually involve the use of mathematical formulas in order to generate a set of valuable data.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This article is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
What is FLAT in the markets, practical tips☝️Do not act based on my analysis, do your own research!!
The main purpose of my resources is free, actionable education for anyone who wants to learn trading and improve mental and technical trading skills. Learn from hundreds of videos and the real story of a particular trader, with all the mistakes and pain on the way to consistency. I'm always glad to discuss and answer questions. 🙌
☝️ALL videos here are for sharing my experience purposes only, not financial advice, NOT A SIGNAL. YOUR TRADES ARE YOUR COMPLETE RESPONSIBILITY. Everything here should be treated as a simulated, educational environment. Important disclaimer - this idea is just a possibility and my extremely subjective opinion. Do not act based on my analysis, do your own research!!
How to use Williams Alligator Indicator in crypto trading?You have probably heard about Alligator, indicator which is used by top crypto traders. This powerful tool can increase performance of every cryptocurrency trading strategy and help you to make money on the market. Alligator gives us the precise answer if now price is in impulsive or reactive wave. This knowledge is very useful in building your own crypto trading strategies or even in automated trading bot strategies. Even if you use grid bot strategy Alligator can increase your return on investment because it’s vital to set up grid bot in reactive wave and sideways movements. What is the beast Alligator, let’s have a deep dive into this topic today!
What is Alligator?
Alligator is the best indicator for trend detection. It consist of three moving averages which are called jaw, teeth and lips. Moving averages are frequently used in algorithmic trading bots. They can be exponential, smoothed or weighted depending on particular crypto trading algorithm, but we will use smoothed moving averages (SMA).
Jaw (blue line) - 13 period SMA shifted 8 bars is the future. This is the balance lie of the current time frame, for example 1D
Teeth (red line) - 8 period SMA shifted 5 bars in the future. This is balance line of lower degree time frame, for example 4h
Lips (green line) - 5 period SMA shifted 3 bars in the future. This is balance line of two times lower degree time frame, for example 1h
Please, be careful when you use Alligator on different cryptocurrency trading platforms. Check the correct settings and moving average type. On TradingView it’s correct, don’t worry!
Trend detection with Alligator.
The main Alligator’s feature is the detection the trending markets and markets which are about to explode in any side. This powerful tool can enhance your crypto trading algorithm if you use it in the correct way. On the ATOM price chart you can see the example of an Alligator. As you can see it has two conditions: sleeping and hungry.
Sleeping Alligator is when all lines are crossing each other and the price. This period of time can takes up to 80% of time. This is the market cycle stage where you shall avoid any trading and be prepared for the trending market
Hungry Alligator is when after a long period of consolidation price chose the trend direction. It’s an impulsive move. Alligator’s mouth is widely opened and do not crosses the price.
It’s very important to distinguish the trending market because only this type of a market gives you opportunity for the fast and huge profit. Otherwise, in the range bounded market you don’t have enough space for price to make profit for you. Most of stop losses occur while Alligator is sleeping. Another one very useful hint for you. If you use Elliott waves analysis. You don’t need to understand in which wave market is now. You just jump into the impulses and avoid corrections.
How to trade with Alligator
Here is the most interesting part. How to start crypto trading using Alligator? Our basic strategy is to wait when the price will create the first fractal above the Alligator’s mouth and place conditional order to buy one tick above the fractal’s top. We will discuss fractals in details next time. Now you have to understand how to use Alligator.
Another one hint from our experience is to use fractals only when Alligator has been sleeping for a long time, like you see on the BTC chart. After long sleep and fractal breakout Bitcoin showed the greatest bull run in the history.
Let’s notice where we should close trade. Almost at the top! When price started showing weakness we don’t need to be in the market anymore. Using this strategy on 1W time frame you can hold assets during entire bull run and sell then before bear market. Fantastic! Isn’t it?
Conclusion
In this article we discussed how you can implement Alligator indicator in your trading routine. This indicator will help you to avoid boring market when you can only lose money and catch every big move. Moreover you can use even sideways market detection if you use cryptocurrency trading bot which earns money in range bounded market. For sure this in not the only one strategy using Alligator. Next time we enhance our approach with other tools and see in details how Alligator improve their profitability. Moreover, soon we will live stream where practice trading with Alligator. See you next time!
Best regards,
Skyrex Team
RSI as a Trend ToolMost people use the RSI as a momentum indicator,
trying to find Overbought/Oversold (OBOS) conditions,
and/or divergences.
However there is also a way to use it as a Trend Tool.
There is a mathematical relationship that connects the RSI and EMA's.
The formula is RSI(x) cross-over 50-line = Close cross-over EMA(2x)
i.e. RSI(14) cross-over 50 line = Close cross-over EMA(28)
This one of the properties of the RSI,
which I discovered when taking a more indept look into momentum indicators,
which ultimately led to the discovery of the MACD-v in 2014/2015
The MACD-v was then publicly disclosed in 2022,
in the form of a a paper called
"MACD-v: Volatility Normalised Momentum",
which was awarded:
It has won 2 International Awards:
1. The “Founders Award” (2022),
for advances in Active Investment Management
from the National Association of Active Investment Managars (NAAIM)
2. The “Charles H. Dow Award” (2022)
for outstanding research in Technical Analysis,
from the Chartered Market Technicians Association (CMTA)
Following the trend with support and resistance• It is always important to understand who is in control at the moment, buyers or sellers, and be aware that the trend can change very quick so its key to adapt and don’t have a bias. After you know what the trend is, then you can mark a high probability support or resistance level in different time frames.
• In an up trending currency, a support will always have a higher probability of holding and the resistance will not be too reliable, the opposite happens in a down trending currency. Also notice that when a resistance level in a uptrending move works, the pullback has low probability of creating new lows (lower lows) meaning it is not a strong move down, it could just be testing lower prices for liquidity and to continue the move up.
• It is common to see that a resistance once broken tends to be support and a support once broken tends to be resistance. This is a good spot to have a continuation of the trend (see example below).
• Support and resistance levels in high time frames like 6hr, daily and weekly that are strong pivot points can be known as key levels. These levels act as historical levels which means that have been relevant since months even years ago. These levels can change the trend.
• Price action around support and resistance levels can be similar to the price action at supply/demand zones (read "How to identify high quality Supply and Demand zones" link below), where price reaches the level with strength and then rejects, volume increases with no follow through and the candle closes with a wick but never below/above the support/resistance level.
• Also it is common to observe that price gets near a support/resistance area and breaks below/above, grabs liquidity and then comes back above/below the area. In this cases, enter the trade after it regains the level.
indicators used to measure main factors surrounding pricethere are 4 main key elements in market price action that i have come across. these help traders/investors determine many crucial factors of price like strength, direction, motion, even speed.
these are : momentum, trend, volume and volatility.
in this idea I will be explaining these price forces and the different types of indicators/tools used to measure them.
1. MOMENTUM -
this is the strength /intensity behind price movement or simply the speed at which price is changing. this helps traders/investors capitalize on market volatility. this is a very important price factor for breakout traders.
types of momentum indicators :
- THE RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX, this indicator is used it bear and bull markets by measuring recent price changes with levels from 0-100. levels below 30 indicate oversold market conditions indicating bullish strength, and levels above 70 signal overbought market conditions indicating sell bias and 50 is a balance between the two.
- AVERAGE DIRECTIONAL INDEX, this unlike other momentum indicators measures the strength of current market direction rather than determining whether the market strength is bullish/bearish. it is measured between 0 to 100 with level below 25 indicating weak trend, 25-50 strong trend, 50-75 very strong, 75-100 very strong trend.
other momentum indicators include - stochastic oscillator, MACD, commodity channel index
2.TREND -
this is the overall direction of an asset price, either up, down and sideways.
types of trend indicators
-moving average, this is the average closing price of an asset over a certain period of time, when price is trading above the moving average price is said to be in an uptrend and if trend is trading below it is in a downtrend.
-trendline, this is a price line that is formed by connecting price highs and lows, if price is forms a full OHLC candlestick above bearish trendline connecting lower lows and lower highs it indicated change in trend from bearish to bullish and vice-versa.
3. VOLATILITY -
this is the the degree of variation in relation to an average price level or rate at how price fluctuates. it provides market opportunities as the more price changes the more investors/traders can capitalize on these price changes.
types of volatility indicators
-average true range, this indicator measure volatility over a certain period of time by moving up and down based on significant noticeable price changes calculated by subtracting previous close from current high, previous close from current low and current low from current high. do this continuously to get average of true ranges.
-bollinger bands- this consists of 3 lines, a simple moving average , upper band and lower band. when the market becomes more volatile the bands widens and low levels of volatility the bands loosen or contract.
other volatility indicators include : relative volatility index, average directional movement index.
4.VOLUME -
this is the number of contracts exchanged or trades for a certain asset in a period of time, this can help traders/investors determine strength and direction of trend.
types of volume indicators
-MONEY FLOW INDEX, this indicator measures the flow/direction of money in and out of a particular asset class over a specified period of time. positive money flow is the total of positive numbers , if today's price is greater than yesterday's price it indicates positive money flow and vice versa, this is to measure volume of rising and falling periods.
-ON BALANCE VOLUME, this measures bearish and bullish pressure by adding volume of bull days and subtracting volume of bearish days it can be calculated in a simple formula : if today's closing price is higher than yesterday's closing price it goes like, Current OBV = PREVIOUS DAY + today's volume and subtract today's volume if today's closing price is lower than yesterdays' price.
hope this information helps/improves your trading/investing.
put together by Pako Phutietsile ( @currencynerd )
How to trade Double Tops to the Short Side using 1 hour barsI always ask myself: What's my favorite chart pattern for finding high probability entries? I look at my stats, I look at my various strategies, and I always find I like one type of trade best: Trend Continuation trades using double tops for shorts and double bottoms for longs.
The strategy is simple: Using 1 hour wickless bars, (I'll show you how in the video), identify a trending stock by seeing where price is clearly up or down, then identify a double top or double bottom occurring along the trend. When you have two confirmed tops or bottoms, get short or long, as the case may be. The patterns really do come in all shapes and sizes, but they are best when they occur along a resistance line, be it VWAP, a 20 EMA, or some other. They also can be confirmed by looking at your RSI chart which will indicate clearly two v bottoms for a long entry or two peaks for a shorty entry. Seeing where on the RSI chart these double patterns are forming is also instructive. Longs should show up on the RSI chart as a pair of v bottoms occuring at the bottom of the upper half of the chart, above the 50% line. Shorts should show up on the RSI chart as a pair of peaks at the top of lower half of the chart, just below the 50% line. Because you're using 1 hour bars to find entries, it naturally stands to reason that your setups will trigger at the top of the hour, when there is typically a burst of volume. If your analysis is correct, that volume burst will push your trade in the proper direction within seconds, so if you like instant gratificatrion like I do, you'll enjoy that aspect of trading this way.
📈Mastering Forex Trading: Your Ultimate Trade Checklist📉
✅Entering the forex market can be an exciting and potentially profitable endeavor. However, it requires careful planning and diligent decision-making to succeed. One essential tool to streamline your trading process is a trade checklist. In this article, we will guide you through the creation and effective use of a trade checklist, providing practical examples along the way.
📌Preparing for a Trade:
Before you pull the trigger on any trade, it's crucial to conduct thorough analysis and set clear objectives. Ensure your trade checklist includes the following elements:
▪️Identify the Market Trend: Determine the overall direction of the currency pair you wish to trade. Consider using various technical indicators, such as moving averages or trend lines, to confirm the trend.
▪️Define Entry and Exit Criteria: Set precise entry and exit points to minimize emotion-driven decisions. Identify key levels of support and resistance, and determine the minimum risk-to-reward ratio you deem acceptable.
📌 Risk Management:
A robust risk management strategy is fundamental to long-term success in forex trading. Incorporate the following risk management elements into your trade checklist:
▪️Determine Position Size: Calculate the appropriate position size based on your risk tolerance and account balance. Consider using tools such as position calculators or risk/reward ratio formulas.
▪️Set Stop Loss and Take Profit Levels: Define stop loss points to protect your capital from excessive losses and specify take profit levels to lock in profits once your target is reached.
📌Trade Execution:
Executing a trade swiftly and accurately is vital. Include the following checklist items to ensure consistent and disciplined execution:
▪️Double-check Parameters: Before placing a trade, review all the crucial parameters, including currency pairs, position size, entry and exit levels, and stop loss/take profit points.
▪️Timing Considerations: Be aware of upcoming economic releases, news events, or major market sessions that may impact your chosen currency pair, and adjust your trade execution timing accordingly.
💹Conclusion:
By incorporating a trade checklist into your forex trading routine, you can significantly enhance your decision-making process and overall trading performance. Remember to adapt your checklist to align with your personal trading style and preferences, continually evaluate its effectiveness, and make necessary improvements. Successful trading is a result of thorough planning, disciplined execution, and a continuous desire to learn and optimize your approach.
☺️I hope this post was helpful to some of our beginner traders😊
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