Trend
USDJPY: What happened nextI compare the situation at 01/01/2019 with a few days previously (see video 4 min mark in screencast below). I've extracted value in this experience because this scenario and one similar in ETHUSD, leads me to a better confidence about spotting trend weaknesses and getting earlier on trend changes. I focus on curves in relation to trend-change indicators.
How To Read Charts (Sec. 2) Mastering Reversals, Trends & RangesHey Traders, Here is Section 2 of the "How to read structure (Charts) Tutorial". In this Section, you will learn some of the methods that professional trend traders use to bring home a profit week after week, month after month, & year after year! In this Section, I will be explaining-
- The Characteristics of a healthy trend (Chart 6)
- A simple method that makes identifying trend reversals easy (Chart 7)
- Why you should not rush your trades plus when & why you should have a neutral biased as a trend trader (Chart 8)
- Mastering Reversals & how to trade them properly (Chart 9)
- Continuation of GBPUSD Structure Analysis ~ How To Identify & Avoid Trading Ranges To Improve Your Trend Trading Strategies ~ The Importance Of A Candles Closing Price. (Chart 10)
- One of my trend trading rules to avoid trading ranges & Intro to the 1st part of Section 3. (Chart 11)
Section 1 of this tutorial is linked below. Please start with section 1 as it will lay some of the ground work for this section & will also show these methods on actual charts. This section of the tutorial is a breakdown of the methods taught in section 1 and when studied together, can really give you a good understanding of how trends, reversals, ranges etc work. Please feel free to leave feedback below regarding if these tutorials have been helpful. I will be releasing many more of these tutorials in future ideas and your feedback really helps me to improve them! It may take you a couple minutes to get use to the format of these tutorials so take your time & read over the charts multiple times as there is a lot of good information provided within these tutorials.
Chart 6- Characteristics of a healthy trend
Chart 7- A simple method that makes identifying trend reversals easy
Chart 8- Why you should not rush your trades plus when & why you should have a neutral biased as a trend trader
Chart 9- Mastering Reversals & how to trade them properly
Chart 10- Continuation of GBPUSD Structure Analysis ~ How To Identify & Avoid Trading Ranges To Improve Your Trend Trading Strategies ~ The Importance Of A Candles Closing Price.
Chart 11- One of my trend trading rules to avoid trading ranges & Intro to the 1st part of Section 3.
You Have Completed Section 2 Of The "How To Read Structure (Charts) Tutorial. Charts 6-11"! Thank you for taking the time to finish this section of the tutorial! I hope Section 1 and 2 have been helpful to you! In section 3, we will start looking at how you can use price action/structure & the methods taught in this tutorial to design your own trading strategy! After all of the sections are complete, you will have the tools needed to read structure, create your own rules based trading strategy and much more so please stick around as this is only the beginning of a very educational tutorial. Thanks Traders!
Education post 22/100 – How to trade with the trend?Check our post how to draw HH, HL, LL, LH and then compare with trend line. You will get very good trend presentation.
For confirmation also add MA 21 and EMA 8 indicators and check if the ema's crossed.
Check the example above to see the 3000 Pips trend move.
NVIDIA: FOMO bulls beaten badlyIn my previous screencast of 17th November, below all this text, is the story of someone (not from Tradingview) messaging me to ask if NVDA was good to buy. They were disappointed when I simply said "No".
In the current screencast I follow up on how the FOMO bulls were punished for attempting to hunt a gap too early.
This screencast is not advice. I am not saying that NVDA will not rise again. The point of this video is solely about appreciating when not to go in . I'm not saying that now is a bad time or good time to enter long.
There are lessons in this:
1. If you're with the trend it can be your friend, else it's your enemy!
2. Avoid news and social media crowd sentiment.
3. Avoid gurus.
Wall Street: When market hysteria meets realityIn this screencast I show how I interpreted the bull run on the daily and how I entered on a 30 min time frame.
Everybody (almost) went 'Wooohoooo!" when Trump made announcements that trade war with China was on hold. There was also the Wooohooo thing when Powell made his politically correct statement, which actually didn't say anything about halting interest rate rises.
Well.. well.. reality hit home shortly after each of those two events creating bull runs.
To be clear, nothing I say means that the markets cannot go north like crazy. I simply don't care! Why? Because I control my acceptable loss.
Dual trend exploitationI've not seen this sort of stuff before on Tradingview, so I do apologise if everybody knows about it.
I show how I used both a microtrend change on a 15 min time frame and a macrotrend position to get a suitable entry position on Japan225. Note carefully, that this is not a 'win'. I totally expect to lose but if that happens the loss will be minimal. If however the trend moves in my favour, I shall simply follow it without need of a target or predefined get-out point. In this way I do not need to 'predict' anything.
Psychological trading hack #0003 - finding your true friendIs finding your 'true friend' a psychological issue? Absolutely! We normally think of 'friends' as people - and that can be something of a mistake (based on personal experience), as I explain.
Your true friend in trading is right there hidden in the backdrop behind the candles - and that's why you see no candles in the screencast.
So I'm saying, find the tools and the methods which will lead to finding the real true friend. Then let your true friend help you.
APPL - given the 'Newton' treatment by investorsApple - has had to obey the laws of 'physics'. Basically the higher you go the harder you fall.
People are of course living on hope - as you would if in a plane crash (by way of analogy only).
I'm afraid the outlook isn't pretty - and that's not what people want to hear about. People need hope. Apologies. I only provide reality. I say what's on the charts. Trading is about harsh realities.
The Loonie in troubleIn this screencast I show how waiting for a key position in the market is good idea. As I always say, 'Stalk 90% trade 10%'.
The CAD - often referred to as 'the Loonie' (not by me) has been in some trouble across many currency pairs. I'm not interested 'why'. All I care is where the trend is going and key areas of opportunity and probability.
As strange as it sounds, not trading is actually a winning strategy. So for newtraders especially, don't feel that if you're not in a trade that you're missing something. You are actually wise.
Education post 16/100 – How to trade trend with HH,HL,LL,LH?Price on a given time frame is in an uptrend if it is making higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) and in a downtrend, if it is making lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL). If the price is doing anything else, it is in a consolidation pattern – range, triangle, pennant, rectangle etc.
The trend is considered in place until price is no longer making higher highs and higher lows in an uptrend or lower highs and lower lows in a downtrend. After a trend is broken, there is usually a period of consolidation that is easier to see on a lower time frame. With practice, you will be able to visualize this going on without looking at the lower time frame.
Market Phases with HH,HL,LL,LH?
Contrary to popular belief there are actually three ways the market can go;
Up
Down
Sideways
With the swing high/low definition now in mind we can start to build some layers on to the chart to identify these market phases and start to do a simple count of these swing highs and lows. In short
The market is going up when price is making higher highs and higher lows
The market is going down when price is making lower highs and lower lows
The market is going sideways when price is not making higher highs and higher lows OR lower highs lower lows
This may sound like child's play and a statement of the obvious but you will be surprised at how often people will forget these simple facts. One of the biggest questions I get asked is, which way is it a market going? By doing a simple exercise you can see which way that price is going and decide on your trading plan and more importantly timing of a trade. What do I mean by timing? It may be that you are looking for a shorting opportunity as the overall trend is down but price on your entry time frame is still going up (making HH's & HL's). There is, at this stage, no point in trying to short a rising market until price action start to point down (making LH's & LL's. More on this shortly).
More on our website...
Dow Jones (Wall Street) - crash is an irrelevant issue.I explain in the screencast why I think 'crash' is an irrelevant issue.
It is impossible to know whether 'we're in a crash' because a crash can only be discovered well into into it or after it has happened.
True trend-followers will appreciate that all one can do is find a suitable trend - and follow it. Simple but I didn't say it was easy. In fact I will assert that true trend followers really don't care whether there will be a crash or the next market melt up.
What people (in general) want, is to be able to foretell the future. Sorry, they can't - and no guru has such powers. We might prepare for the future in various ways. This is not ordinary life. It's not everyday activities like trying to find the safest point in time to cross a road. The reality is that markets are wild random things - pure chaos of a different order - where the 'normal rules' we may apply in everyday life just fail miserably. As I've said in other posts, a whole new mindset is needed to manage this very different sort of chaos.
With 76 to -90% of real trader accounts consistently losing money (hard data), the battle is not with the charts or the markets. The battle is with yourself and your psychology.
NZDJPY (2H) interesting situation.In the screencast I show two possible head and shoulder patterns - with a degree of uncertainty.
The bigger issues are signs of a trend change and momentum developing for the south. So, it doesn't matter at this stage where the base of the head and shoulders is. It is a no-loss position I'm in at the moment.
What Support Looks Like When It BreaksLooking at the m15 chart only can lead you to have the correct idea but in the wrong place.
By looking at high time frame charts you get a better picture of when a trend is in place, when a trend is no longer working or when there is no trend and we're in a range.
On the attached charts a daily time frame (top left) has a defined up trend and at 1.6700 the trend line and price meet for the 3rd time of Sept 27th. Here traders wanting to keep adding to long trade would initiate a long trade.
However by the close of the daily candle that idea is no longer valid, as the trend line did not hold as support.
Moving down through the smaller time frames we see that the days leading up to the 27th September have been consolidated into small daily moves. There is a clear line of support under these days that is clearly broken on the H1 chart etc. This equates to the time when the Daily candle approaches the rising trend line.
What we see happen next is that the broken daily horizontal support is now acting as horizontal resistance and price is trapped between this new horizontal resistance and the rising daily up trend.
When the horizontal resistance holds and the daily rising trend line are broke on the H1 candles traders waited for a quick retest and then went short. Accelerating the move.
Where was I over the last 62 days?!Trends are not easy to spot when they're developing. I'm sure I looked at AUDCAD many times across several time frames in last 80 days. Now I'm seeing the trend on 12H better, having missed the boat several times! Jeeez this is so annoying!
I suspect that several times I must have thought, "Nah.. it's about to reverse soon. " - and just ignored it very swiftly. This is a mistake, that I need to self-correct.
Do share your lessons learned too. :) :)
Learn how MACD and Trendlines are Connected.Hey, I am back, this time with something, kinda unusual, and I dont know If you like this kind of stuff, but here is some education for you to make a better trading decision in your future!
Okay, so I would like to teach you a bit about MACD and how is this indicator connected to trendlines.
In this chart you can see three flags , each flag can be bullish or bearish.
But how do you know if a flag will be bullish or bearish?
Pretty simple and pretty hard in same way.
If a price breaks uptrend ascending ressistance it means breakout !
And if the price breaks ascending support level it means a breakdown .
This type of trading is called breakout trading.
But what makes flag, a flag? In simple.
Flag is a continuation pattern, they usually represent only brief pauses in a dynamic stock also they are typically seen right after a big, quick move , thats why we see so much flags in the Bitcoin charts, its a very quick and dynamic moving stock compared to others stocks, not cryptocurrencies.
Channel/flag, is formed by a ascending support level and ascending ressistance level.
Inside this channel you can spot tests on both support and ressistance level.
So lets now just go trough the chart chronologically and see how the MACD reacts to trendlines.
At first double top you can see the test of ressitance uptrend flag/channel.
This test was negative, you can spot that by histogram finding his top and starting to decline, same thing on "Point A".
As histogram is starting to decline ,Bitcoin is about to test a certain level, this time it is a ascending support level, you can spot it at first macd uptrend test where the histogram turned around and started to see buying volume increasing, this same is valid for each succesful uptrend test. After some tests of each ascending ressistance or support, when the price leaves this channel, its a prediction for a sharp move in a way, which was broken, for example broken ascending ressistance level would mean breakout.
After the first flag has broken out, steep uptrend were build , and succesful test of this steeper uptrend meant another wave of buyers p ushing price even higher, found ressistance at 6800, failed at testing second steep uptrend and found new channel.
In a second flag , Bitcoin is on selling wave , so for macd to give us buy signa l, Bitcoin would need to break ascending ressistance and that would give macd buy signal, its opposite as buying wave, while on buying wave you see rise in histogram which meant succesful test, here means the fall ( or rise from negative bottom if you will ) of histogram, Bitcoin finding support.
A fter Bitcoin has failed in the second flag breaking/testing the ressitance twice as macd suggest and also the ascending ressistance which wasnt overhelmed, the flag has seen a breakdown .
After breakdown Bitcoin found support and formed another uptrend , found new ascending ressitance and formed another flag, on this last flag, you can beautifuly see how is macd testing , each test represent an ascending support test on the chart, after 4 succesful test in a row, the flag has broken out and saw a breakout!
In short
MACD shows test of trendlines, ressistance, support.
When is MACD doing waves , or in another words blue riding on orange line, it means succesful test of uptrend , support and price of stock may continue to rise.
When Flag gets broken , heavy price action is ahead.
When uptrend is broken , usually downtrend is formed until stock finds support and from there form another uptrend.
The highest positive histogram tick represent finding ressistance , falling volume, headed to test support levels.
The lowest( or the longest if you will) negative histogram tick represent finding support and price headed to test ressistance for possible macd turnaround, on chart you can see two unsuccesful, which led to breakdown.
Hope you liked this Education about MACD and Trendlines connection and also some education about flags/channels.
Hope I havent missed anything important , if yes point it in comments.
I f I have learned you anything that you are able to benefit from and be a bit better trader , let me know by smashing that agree button, each like is very appreciated as I am doing this for FREE and it took me a LOT of time, Thanks a Lot!
HOW to indentify a TREND! MUST see for beginners! #EZ-learningHey tradomaniacs and becoming traders,
I love sharing my knowledge and wanna help everyone who is interested and trading. :-)
Check this "journal" and start to understand the market.
Most of us know how a trend works. BUT NOT WHY!
I hope this will help you out to understand and improves your abillity to indentify Trends.
Peace and happy learning
Irasor
Trading2ez
- Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me!
- Any questions? Wanna more stuff PM me!
Intermediate Trading Strategy - Part 1IMPORTANT NOTE: If you are looking for a shortcut then this is not for you! This is for individuals who are enthusiastic about putting in the time and effort but may lack the structure.
I plan out my trades through in depth technical analysis, risk management and market research. I believe that consistency is the most important factor in regards to trading profitably. A traders success is determined more by the consistency of their approach than it is by the quantity or quality of indicators being used.
Over the long run, a consistent process combined with a sound strategy will net a disciplined trader far greater returns than the market average.
If you have any questions then feel free to leave a comment or send a private message.
Click here for Sawcruhteez’ Trading Process
Before Making an Entry
Identify Trend
Higher highs and higher lows = bull market
Lower highs and lower lows = bear market
Lower highs and higher lows = triangle continuation pattern
Equal highs and equal lows = Consolidation/Range
Tyler Jenks’ Consensio
Price > Short term MA > Long term MA = Bull Market
-I like to use the 50 & 128 day MA’s by default for crypto. For traditional markets I use the 200 MA.
-For short term price movements (1 month or less) I like to use exponential moving averages. 12 & 26 EMA for crypto and for traditional markets the 9 & 21 EMA.
Welles Wilder’s ADX
If ADX > 25 then trending market
If ADX < 20 then no trend is present
If +DI > -DI then bull trend
If -DI < +DI then bear trend
In extreme circumstances I will bet against the trend. This will only happen when the risk:reward is too favorable to pass up.
Identify Time Horizon
Investment
Is this a 10+ year investment? If so then I will dollar cost average my way in and not even look at the charts or listen to the news. Investments are not meant to be babysat, they are meant to develop over time.
Bet it then forget it!
Position Trade
Buy/sell breakouts and attempt to hold on for the duration of the trend. This is done through technical analysis and trailing stop losses. If I am in a position trade I will tend to it daily by looking at charts and managing stop losses. It is not required to ‘baby-sit’ the position by watching it all day and this approach is actively discouraged.
Position traders do not concern themselves with intraday movements. Managing the position too closely will often cause traders to make mistakes they wouldn’t have otherwise such as: taking profit too early or adjusting stop losses in the heat of the moment.
This is my prefered method of trading for a number of reasons. Primarily it is because I like to live a balanced life. I like to be able to set my stop loss and forget about it while I am out playing golf, skiing or at the gym.
Time horizon for a position trade is often a couple months or even a year+
Swing Trade
“Markets do not go straight up, nor do they go straight down.” There is an ebb and a flow to the price movements. Swing traders try to capitalize on the daily - weekly price movements. Is price at resistance? Sell. Is price at support? Buy.
Swing traders have well defined price targets. They can trade within ranges or in trending markets but they generally do not hold through significant resistance in order to speculate on the price movement. If it does breakthrough resistance then they can re enter without as much risk.
Day trade
Mostly scalpers and high frequency robots. In traditional markets the price generally isn’t very volatile on an intra-day basis so most traders will use high leverage. This will allow them to 10X, 50X or even 100X a 1% price movement in the underlying asset.
In crypto the market is volatile enough for day traders to make a very handsome profit without using leverage. This approach is still the extremely risky.
[b]Catching the PIP's with my sonar radar Setup[/b]
FX:GBPUSD
Description:
GBP/USD shows strong support within DeMarker indicator (DeMarker was used to replace RSI and Slow Stoch)
MACD and MACz Vwap shows continuation of the bullish uptrend for hourly and daily chart high time-frames
Within opening bell wait for Fractals v9 TUX EMA Scalper and CM_PSAR EM Envelope confirmation for the entry positions.
Put your S/L within the EMA BB and use MTF EMA and 3EMA as the support and resistance of your positions.
Look at the different time-frames to minute, hourly and daily for trends and patterns
This is good for intraday/swing trades not scalping short time frames. If you want to scalp look for Fractals v9 TUX EMA Scalper and CM_PSAR EM Envelope confirmation .
Good for traders sitting at the desk waiting for the trend confirmation. Very High expected PIPs return when the strategy followed the trend.
Good luck traders and happy hunting !!