How To Combine Indicators to Make Profit?Hello, traders!
We have already know many diffirent indicator, but sometimes we can face with the situation when a combination of different indicators demonstrates bad trading performance. Usually the reason of this confusion is that investors use indicators of the same type. We should analyze the market situation in different ways.
The indicators can be divided by five groups.
TREND INDICATORS
This indicators helps to define the trend direction (uptrend, downtrend, sideways). This is very important part of the analysis because the uptrend is the most applicable for long, downtrend - for short, sideways - for range trading. Examples: EMA, Parabolic SAR, Alligator.
OSCILLATORS
This type is used for the trend confirmation, overbought/oversold conditions defining, to find the trend weakness (divergences). Examples: RSI, Stochastic, %R Williams.
VOLATILITY
There are can be periods of low-volatility and high-volatility on the market. The low-volatile periods are great for the long-term trading, while high-volatile periods are applicable for intraday and scalping in pullback or range trading. Examples: Bollinger Bands, ATR.
VOLUME
This indicators demonstrate moments when the volume increases or decreases. It is widely known that the big price moves are usually associated with significant volume traded. Examples: Money Flow Index, On-balance Volume.
CENTRAL PIVOT RANGE
This is a separate indicator's type because all indicators we discussed above are lagging, it means that it reacts to price action and usually produce the signal too late. The CPR indicator is the leading and is used for the potential price levels. We have already considered it on this channel on TradingView.
COMBINATIONS
We should combine indicators from different groups to increase trading performance. For medium and long-term trading it is great to use trend indicators with volume (EMA + On-Balance Volume) or with oscillators (EMA + RSI). For intraday trading the volatility and oscillators combination is applicable (Bollinger Bands + Stochastic RSI). The CPR indicator could be added to almost every combinations, because it is the leading indicator.
Now you can use this article to construct your own trading strategy. Next time we will consider a simple strategy based on these principles
DISCLAMER: Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions.
Trend
An Example of Trend Trading1. Just Identify the Trend And draw key level (Lower Low & Lower High in down trend and Higher High & Higher Low in up trend ).
2.then wait for prefect entry for example when you see some clear sings like price re test Lower High or false breakout from Lower Low in Downtrend (reversal pattern in this area like double top...)
3.put stop loss at the top of the Lower low in down trend
4.you can entry and take profit at next key level (Lower Low in down trend).or you can set take profit at the width of last rectangle area ( |LH-LL|).
*Patience and following the trend is important
*you can Have a more accurate entry point in lower timeframe
Understanding Market Cycles and PhasesUsing Bitcoin as a example, in this idea i am going to briefly explain the concept of Market Phases in a easy to understand way.
Market Cycles & Phases
Cycles are prevalent in all aspects of life; they range from the very short-term, like the life cycle of a insect, some which can live a few days, to the life cycle of a planet, which takes billions of years.
All financial markets go through the same phases and are cyclical. They rise, top out, drop, and then bottom out. When one market cycle is finished, another begins.
The problem is that most investors and traders either fail to recognize that markets are cyclical or forget to expect the end of the current market phase.
There are 4 key phases in a Market Cycle:
1. Accumulation
The heavy buying phase before the uptrend begins.
2. Mark Up/ Re accumulation
Mark Up is the uptrend, Re accumulation phases are sideways pauses in the uptrend where more buying occurs before continuation of trend.
3. Distribution
The heavy selling phase before the downtrend begins.
4. Mark Down / Redistribution
Mark Down is the downtrend, Re distrubution phases are sideways pauses in the downtrend where more selling occurs before continuation of trend.
Trend
The dictionary definition of trend: *a general development or change in a situation or in the way that people are behaving. In financial markets the direction the price of a asset is moving is referred to as the trend.
Markets are made up of several different kinds of trends, and it is the recognition of these trends that will largely determine the success or failure of your long and short-term investing.
There are 3 key trends in Markets:
1. Bullish (upwards, buyers in control) (higher lows, higher highs (HL, HH)
The Mark Up phase is an uptrend or bullish trend.
2. Bearish (downwards, sellers in control) (lower highs, lower lows (LH, LL)
The Mark Down phase is an downtrend or bearish trend.
3. Consolidation /Sideways (sideways, direction & control undecided temporarily)
Re accumulation & Re distrubution phases are consolidation phases or "pauses" in the market before continuation of trend or reversal.
It is essential to understand Market Cycles, Phases & Trends, which are important behavioral characteristics of how price develops over time. By fully understanding these concepts and how one can identify them, a trader or investor can generate more opportunities, secure a longer term plan reducing stress levels, and potentially maximize profits.
Once a asset has already moved on from the Accumulation phase the next best buying opportunity is the Reaccumulation phase (marked in yellow) where price usually starts to zigzag in a sideways movement after a strong upwards movement. The Reaccumulation phase is where the price is usually "held down" by large transactions, while buyers fill positions, eventually the price can no longer be held down and we see the continuation of the Mark Up.
If you found the idea informative you can show your appreciation by leaving a like or comment thank you!
15 Minute Bollinger Band Strategy Here we use a 15 Minute chart with Bollinger bands set to 20 with a standard deviation of 2.
First we look for an established trend direction, once that has been found we apply our bands, set the deviation for 2 and wait for the price to test or slightly break that lower band. (test/break of higher band in the case of a down trend and sell order)
Here we have highlighted these tests/breaks with a green circle. The blue arrow represents a 200 point gain on each trade. Once the trend has begun to level out the opportunity is extinguished and we move on to the next chart.
Tips/Rules
Don't trade against the trend! eg sell at a high break/test of band on an uptrend!
Keep stops loss tight - if the break and trade entry occurs, but the price keeps moving against you time to get out!
Stay cautious in a sideways market (we will post a strategy for that soon too)
If the bands widen drastically that could indicate high volatility and potential trend change.
Be aware of new releases and high importance data when entering set up.
Good luck!
Orion Fx Trading Team
USD/CHF - Trend IdentificationGood Morning Traders. Here is an educational piece on two key things.
Before trading a currency pair, we want to head to at least the daily chart to identify the long term trend on the pair before we scale down to our lower time frames. To identify a trend is simple. For an uptrend, look for higher highs and higher lows.
Here is a clear long term downtrend on UCHF. We can see price is making lower highs and lower lows. This indicates a downtrend.
It is important to zoom out and see highs and lows of markets long term. We've done that here with USD/CHF and we can see that price is now at 6 year lows! Will sellers keep pushing price down further or is this a level where buyers will jump into the market?
Top Tip - You can always switch to a line chart. This makes identifying the trend easier for forex beginners!
One Trillion Market CapI've been curious as to what players would be involved to have the Crypto world have a one trillion dollar market cap. Looking at the top 20 coins, it looks as though we sit around $600 Billion, so less than a doubling of the current market. I truly believe the "FOMO" hasn't even arrived in the market and once they catch on that we'll see the trillion dollar mark by at least the end of 2018, if not earlier. The Crypto players that will be a part of this will involve a handful picked out from the top 20. 2018 will not only bring new dollars into the arena, but will also separate the good coin from the bad. Something has to give in regards to having a couple of thousand coins...mostly fluff coins with no apparent reason to exist other than to scam and tarnish the good products here. The former big three (BTC, ETH, LTC) will still be around, along with some new comers such as XRP, MON, IOTA...however, in what capacity they contribute to that trillion dollar market cap will be the interesting thing to watch as 2018 progresses. Happy trading!
Tilson Moving Average (T3)T3 is one of the most accurate moving averages developed by Tim Tilson.
Tilson Moving Average (T3) is a trend indicator with the advantage of having less lag than other ones.
That is, a faster moving average. T3 is considered superior to traditional moving averages as it is smoother, more responsive and thus performs better in ranging market conditions as well. The T3 moving average is an indicator of an indicator since it includes several EMAs of another EMA. Unlike any other moving average, it also adds the volume factor.
Tim Tilson is designed another superb movinh average called IE2 which integrates the linear regression into it.
EDUCATION: Engulfing Candlestick PatternHello, dear subscribers!
The topic of this article is the Engulfing candlestick pattern. To be honest the candlestick patterns are almost useless if you use only this. But this is a great trend confirmation, so we will consider engulfing pattern with the Alligator Indicator which was described in one of the previous articles.
What is Engulfing Pattern?
The Engulfing Pattern can be bullish and bearish. The bullish one is the situation when the red candle is engulfed by the next green candle. It is not important if the candleweak was engulfed too or not. This is a subject for thought. Also it does not mean if the only one green candle or two consecutive candles absorbed the previous red candle.
The bearish Engulfing candlestick formation is exactly the opposite situation.
The Strategy
You can search by yourself the ehgulfing patterns on the chart and notice that it generate a lot of fake signals, it means that we should use the indicator for the trend definition. In our example we use the Alligator indicator to do it. As you already know the Alligator has two phases - the sleeping and feeding time. If the sleeping time is over the jaw, teeth and lips of the Alligator become wider. At this point we should find the Engulfing formation to confirm the new trend. You should enter a long position at the point which you can see on the chart.
Price Action Basics: 1 Tool to Rule them AllIn this vid I will explain about Price action Basic Tool.
This tool is exceptional and most used in trading and technical analysis.
This video will help new traders how to analyse chart and find trades according to price action.
Bump Like if you enjoyed the video and find it useful.
Best regards,
Artem Shevelev
EDUCATION: Williams Alligator IndicatorHello, dear subscribers!
Today's topic is Williams Alligator (WA) Indicator, which is very important and efficient trading tool at any timeframe.
Definition
WA consists of three lines:
Jaw = Moving average with length 13 and offset 8
Teeth = Moving average with length 8 and offset 5
Lips = Moving average with length 5 and offset 3
But you can choose your own settings.
This indicator usually use for trend confirmation and works perfect with other indicators, which will be examined in next topics.
How to trade with Williams Alligator?
Alligator has 2 states: slleping and feeding time. The yellow areas demonstrate the sleeping time, when the lines are intertwined. During this period is not recommended to trade. When the lips start rapidly move down it means the downtrend start. After this the jaw starts open and the feeding time confirmed. When the red candle closed lower than all three MA lines, this is the perfect moment to entry short position. The exit condition is the crossover the lips and teeth lined, but you can do it earlier - when the price broke up the lips or teeth lines.
For the long position the opposite is true, the lips line have to rapidly move up and be above other MA lines.
Summary
1)Define the alligator sleeping time
2)Find the moment when lips line starts to move down and below other lines for short and move up and above for long
3)Wait the candle close below/above all three lines for short/long and entry position
4)Exit the position when the lips line crossed the teeth line
This indicator is also has not perfect performance in sole use, but with other indicators it can bring a great profit. We will talk about it next time.
Break out trend line. HOW TO BUILD A TREND LINEBreakout of the trend line
Good day to all readers of my blog and colleagues! Today we will consider such a phenomenon as a trend line breakdown, taking into consideration the analysis of traded volumes. What are trend lines drawn for, what are their application variants and what characteristics make a breakout or rebound possible - we will consider all these questions today. The trend line is probably the most popular tool for any kind of technical analysis, which can give an idea of the possible price behavior both in the short term and in the long term.
WHY BUILD A TREND LINE
Typically, the trend line is used to indicate the direction in which the market is moving. Also, it can be used to identify support and resistance not only at the moment, but also in the future. If the price has reached the trend line but has not broken it, it means the effort was not enough and in the future it will return to it. Old (broken) trend lines can still be used in the analysis, along with the current ones. The places where these lines intersect form fairly strong points of resistance or support. Breaking the trend line with a strong movement, gives a signal that the current trend has changed and the price is changing its direction.
HOW TO BUILD A TREND LINE
In order to draw a trend line, it is necessary to draw a straight line through two price extremums on the chart. For the growing market, the minimum extrema are considered important, because when the support is broken, the direction of the price changes. And for the descending movement, the maximum values are important, when breaking through which everything can change. The line can go far into the future because the price, as a rule, if it does not break through it, certainly returns to it.
TREND CHANNEL
A trend channel can be built using a trend line corresponding to the market direction and a parallel line passing through the opposite extremum. Quite often the price moves inside such a channel, bouncing periodically from its borders, which can be used for profitable trading.
VOLUME ANALYSIS NEAR TREND LINES
Analyzing the traded volumes, when the price approaches the trend line, it is possible to understand the possible further market movement with a high degree of probability. In order to overcome the resistance or support of the trend lines, it is necessary to make an effort, which is expressed in large volume and a large spread (candle or bar of large size). If a small candle is formed when the price approaches the trend line, and the volume is below average, then this effort will not be enough to break the line. Professional traders and market makers have no interest in seeing price move in that direction. Even if price does break through the trend line, without the big players ("smart money"), such a move will not last long and price will return inside the channel again. If there is increased volume as price approaches the trend line, it is likely that resistance or support will be broken.
BREAKING THE TREND LINE.
In order to break the trend line, as written above, an effort is required. If the candle that broke the trend line of a large size, it really is a break of the previous trend. If a gap is formed, which broke through the trend line and formed a candle with a long body and a large traded volume, then it is also a true breakout.
EDUCATION: Trend Support LineHello, dear subscribers!
Yesterday we considered the simple support line. Today we continue to examine support types.
Definition
Trend support line occurs where the price is in the uptrend and is formed by the lows on the candlestick chart. Next to this line the price is likely to bounce off it because the demand/supply imbalance.
How to trade with trend support?
When we can draw line which connects 3 lows (1,2 and 3 points), the next lows which are lying on this line can be the properly entry points. Also we need to take a stop loss to eliminate the significant price decline effects. According to the chart this strategy would bring profit at points (4), (5), (6), (7) and (8). The first loss would be at the breakpoint (B), but the stoploss level reduce it.
Summary
1)To define the support line by three points
2)To enter the position next to the line
3)To fix profit in case of success
4)To fix a small loss with the stoploss setup in case of support breakout
How to read the price successfullyIn this short video, I explained how you can read the price using structural points to determine whether you want to be a buyer or a seller.
Key Points:
---------PRICE BEHAVIOUR----------
S-STR = Short Structure / A sell decision-making point
L-STR = Long Structure / A buy decision-making point
Downtrend: Series of LH & LL
Uptrend: Series of HL & HH
Moving Averages Crossover Divergence Masterclass Part 2Moving Averages Crossover Divergence Masterclass Part 2
In the previous masterclass, we saw two different ways of using MACD as an indicator. In Part 2, we'll look out for two other ways to use MACD along with other indicators.
The two previous ways were:
1. Centreline Crossover
2. Signal-line Crossover
Moving forward the two more ways are:
3. MACD + Awesome Oscillator:
Awesome Oscillator -
Bill William's Awesome Oscillator
It is a momentum oscillator
Calculated by subtracting 34-period SMA from 5-period SMA plotted through bar-midpoint (H+L/2)
Clearly shows what is happening to the market driving force
Bullish Scenario- Awesome Oscillator is greater than 0; If AO is moving up bullish trend is strengthening while if AO is moving down bullish trend is weakening
Bearish Scenario- Awesome Oscillator is less than 0; If AO is moving down bearish trend is strengthening while if AO is moving up bearish trend is weakening
Awesome Oscillator defined the predominant trend while MACD Signal line crossover(as discussed in Masterclass Part 1) is used to generate the trade signal.
Thus BUY when AO >0 and MACD crosses up the signal line, while SELL when AO <0 and MACD crosses below the signal line
To prevent fake signals, a stop loss can be set-up at the low for the entry candle.
4. MACD + Stochastic:
Stochastic Indicator -
Momentum Indicator
Compares a particular closing price to a range of its prices over a certain period of time
Just like MACD, it has faster and slower moving metrics
Slow Stochastic Indicator (%K) = (C - L14)/(H14 - L14)*100
Fast Stochastic Indicator (%D) = 3 - period moving average of %K
Bullish Scenario- Stochastic Indicator < 20 i.e. oversold condition; market trading upward, prices will close near the high
Bearish Scenario- Stochastic Indicator > 80 i.e. overbought condition; market trading downward, prices will close near the low
MACD Centerline Crossover(as discussed in Masterclass Part 1) defines the predominant trend while the Stochastic Indicator (%K) is used to generate the trade signal.
Thus BUY when MACD > 0 and Stochastic Oscillator < 20, while SELL when MACD <0 and Stochastic Oscillator >80
Trade signals can also be generated using crossovers of %K and %D for the Stochastic Oscillator.
A lot more interesting things can be done using MACD, but we'll move to the next indicator in our next Masterclass.
STAY TUNED
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If you find the post useful, please like, share, and follow to make sure that you get more information once I publish it.
- Mudrex
WHY DID THE BULLISH CONTINUATION MOVE FAIL?What does "End of Month Square Up" mean.
A square position is a situation where a trader or portfolio has no market exposure. ... The reason for this confusion is that the term "squaring up" is used to describe settling open trades before the market closes.
A square position is also referred to as a "flat position."
Square position, like many trading terms, can take on a different nuance depending on the speaker. For an individual forex trader, a square position can refer to offsetting long and short positions in the same currency pair or a situation where a currency trader holds no positions in the market. The reason for this confusion is that the term "squaring up" is used to describe settling open trades before the market closes. Squaring usually refers to just a few positions, but a trader could close out all of his open positions and get out of the market.
The "Market Makers" can use this trading principle as they move the market.
E/U had a Bullish Trend which became a consolidated range.
Price had a Bearish Breakout of the Range bottom which failed.
Price created Higher Highs and Higher Low making it appear a Bullish Continuation move was happening.
This drew in long traders leaving behind lots of money tied up in Stop Losses.
The Market Makers can tell where the most money is tied up on the Long side or Short Side.
It seems to appear that the Market Makers made the Bullish Continuation Reversal fail and took out the Stop Losses at the Higher Low entry point and also the 50% reversal entry point.
All of this happening the last few days of the End of the Month of October.
Could this be an example of the "END OF MONTH SQUARE UP?"
GOLD: Exploiting a trend - secrets shared! Some have asked me about my rather different methodology. This 15 min chart of Gold which isn't my favourite, shows it all. No secrets. No fees. No signups. No signals. No obligations! 😃👍 The position setup shown looks back only to show how it works. There are 5 points at which this trend could have been shorted. If you're a day trader, you might have lost some sleep on this one, but it would have been worth as much as 69 points, or multiply that by whatever you put in for a position sizes. If you had the 'bottle' (not recommending alcohol), you could have added one or two position sizes. (The trend shown could have happened on any time frame - no law says it couldn't. Unlikely on a 4H but who cares).
Some knew that gold was likely to head south, but nobody could predict how far, when an important plunge came. Trends predict nothing. You just follow and 'a system' can determine your get-out point.
I can't provide skill in this methodology. It sure has it's losses like any other methodology. I can only show how it's composed. The following are important:
1 - one has to spot the trend switch early - so alerts can be set up to spot it.
2 - flattening of price and trend may say something is about to happen (north or south)
3 - price alerts can be set up, so you know to look when something happens (if you're asleep - tough).
4 - an initial RSI plunge or punch does not necessarily mean that price is going to recoil - it could mean start of a big move.
5 - do not fear the RSI - but respect it.
6 - take some or all profits in a very deep or high RSI (depending on direction of trade).
7 - Watch for a 'theory of curves ' - it often gives a warning of the trend ending (approx 55% chance).
Skill in any methodology means lots of time and effort sequencing and practicing. Do it on a paper trading account. If you don't do the time you don't get the 'dime'.
One day traders will wake up to the value of teamwork. So some can take the watch while others have a nap - the 'watchman' wakes everybody when important stuff happens. 😃🤣
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Relative Strength Index Masterclass Part 1Relative Strenght Index(RSI)
RSI is a momentum oscillator, whereas the momentum is the rate of the rise or fall in price.
RSI is an oscillator ranging between two extremes, in the case of RSI, it ranges from 0 to 100.
The relative strength index is computed with: RSI = 100RS/(1+RS); where RS is relative strength.
RS= (Previous Average gain*13+Current gain)/(Previous Average loss*13+Current loss)
Relative Strength is a ratio of a stock price performance to a market average (index) performance.
RSI will rise as the number and size of positive close increases and will fall as the number and size of losses increase.
There are two terminologies for RSI:
Lookback period: The time frame that is used to calculate the relative strength, by default it is 14. A look-back period greater than 14 will give a smoother RSI signal while less than 14 will give a rough volatile RSI signal
Threshold Frequency: The oversold-overbought value ranges are the threshold frequency, default is 70-30 (which depend on various factors reasons such as risk factor), for eg. 80-20(less risk) and 66-33 (more risk)
RSI touching the overbought condition is a bearish sign (prices are likely to go down) while RSI attaining oversold condition is a bullish sign (prices are likely to increase)
There are many ways of using RSI as an indicator
Oversold-Overbought Region :
Oversold Region - The situation at which a lot of selling has happened and everyone who was willing to sell has sold, RSI value less than 30
Overbought Region - The situation at which a lot of buying has happened and everyone who was willing to buy has bought, RSI value greater than 70
In this, we have default values for the lookback period(14) and threshold frequency(70-30) which you can change according to your requirement and risk management.
A look-back period of more than 14 would be more interested in long term trend while less than 14 would be inclined towards short term trades. The look-back period can also be increased to smoothen out the RSI line.
A threshold of 80-20 (more-safer) or 66-33 (more-riskier) can be taken into consideration.
A Buy signal will be generated when RSI is less than 30 i.e. the oversold region while a Sell signal will be generated when RSI is greater than 70 i.e. overbought region.
50-Level RSI Midline
The overbought-oversold condition helps detect sudden changes in the momentum of price without providing much information about the overall trend of the market, therefore using the overbought-oversold strategy without getting information on the overall trend could be a bit risky.
Thus we use RSI with different timeframes and the threshold for trend information as well as signal generation.
In this we will have two different RSI:
A RSI with the look-back period of 20-days and 50-50 frequency, also called midline RSI. In an uptrend, this RSI is above 50 and below 50 for a downtrend.
A RSI with the look-back period of 5-days and 66-33 frequency, the look-back period is sufficiently low so that in a predominant trend, local maxima or minima can be used for generating buy or sell signal with the small look-back period RSI ensuring the signal is reactive to current price fluctuations.
Thereby, an uptrend is signaled if 20-RSI is greater than 50, with the buy signal being generated in the uptrend with 5-RSI in the oversold region while a downtrend is signaled if 20-RSI is less than 50, with the sell signal being generated in the downtrend with 5-RSI in the overbought region.
A buy signal is generated when 20-RSI is greater than 50 and 5-RSI is less than 33 while a sell signal is generated when 20-RSI is less than 50 and 5-RSI is greater than 66.
A lot more interesting things can be done using RSI, about which we'll be talking in the next Masterclass on RSI, STAY TUNED!
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Your questions and comments are most welcome.
If you find the post useful, please like, share, and follow to make sure that you get more information once I publish it.
- Mudrex
HYPOTHETICAL: BITCOIN - $30,000 BY 2024?The volatility of Bitcoin on anything less than a 4H chart, hides its path of momentum. On this monthly chart I show what I see. Move chart to left to see more. The path is more probably up in the long term based on monthly momentum. In my hypothetical $30,000 is possible - but I make no predictions. I previously made other speculations.
If we hit a 1929-type depression in the next few years - and fiat becomes meaningless as in 1929, what will we use to exchange value? I think it could be Bitcoin - or possibly some other crypto(s). I can't say it won't be Ethereum.
Some argue that 1929 is gone and the scenario would never happen again. I'm not so sure. When I look at the factors that contributed to 1929, I'm seeing them right now as the COVID-crisis evolves.
This post does not mean that you should rush out and purchase or invest in Bitcoin or cryptos.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.