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Trend

The Underlying Direction of PriceContrary to popular belief, when an asset is going up, that doesn't necessarily mean the asset is long biased. It's the same when price is going down; just because price is falling doesn't make that asset short biased. What we see on a chart at first glance often times is just random price movement with no substance. Hence, "Rangy Markets". Price will arbitrarily rise, then fall with no sustained direction. So instead of taking the direction of an asset's price at face value, I analyze the "Underlying Direction of Price". So confirming a long or short bias is not just about the direction in which price is moving from point A to point B. It is "How" Price Travels from Point A to Point B" that informs us of the bias of an asset's price. So in other words, even if price is rising, if it isn't rising in a "Long way", then that asset is not long biased. It's just random price action created by buyers and sellers for reasons nobody knows. (By the way, there's no need to know either.) Remember!The question to ask yourself is: "How did price travel from point A to point B"?. Now, the easiest way to know whether underlying price is supporting a given directional move is through examining the lower time frames. To explain, lets say weekly price has been rising for the last 3 months. In order to confirm whether the weekly rise is sustainable is by analyzing the price action on the lower time frames. So for example, if there are legitimate continuation patterns long, and moreover legitimate break outs long on the time frames under the weekly chart; then underlying price is confirming the weekly rise, and thus is a sustainable long move. On the other hand however, if there are legitimate reversal patterns short as well as failed attempts at long breakouts, it is likely that the weekly rise in price is "unsustainable". Try it yourself. If you find a higher time frame directional move, don't unsuspectingly take that move at face value. Dig down to the lower time frames and use any price action techinique at your disposal to confirm the higher time frame's rise. If you find that although price is rising, the lower time frames are "not" confirming the move; you can expect the move is unsustainable and will fail in due time. Remember! It's all about "HOW" price travels from point A to point B. That's it! I hope this helps! Have a great day guys! Ken
Education
by TradingForexPriceAction
1
Mark Minervini's Trend-TemplateIn the last tutorial, we have highlighted the importance to look for stocks in a confirmed stage 2 uptrend and explained why. But how can we use technical chart analysis can be used to identify stocks in a stage 2 uptrend? US investment champion Mark Minervini developed the so-called Trend-Template which can be used to screen for stocks in a confirmed stage 2 uptrend. TradingView provides all of the relevant tools to automate this screening process. The following section summarizes the technical characteristics which must be met so that a stage 2 uptrend for a stock can be confirmed: Trend-Template to confirm a STAGE 2 Uptrend 1. Stock price is above both the 150-day (30-week) and the 200-day (40-week) moving average price lines. 2. The 150-day moving average is above the 200-day moving average. 3. The 200-day moving average line is trending up for at least 1-month (preferably 4-5 months minimum). 4. The 50-day (10-week moving average) is above both the 150-day and the 200-day moving averages. 5. The current stock price is at least 25% above its 52-week low. (Many of the best selections will be 100%, 300% or even greater above their 52-week low before they emerge from a sound consolidation period and mount a large-scale advance). 6. The current stock price is within at least 25% of its 52-week high (the closer to a new high the better). 7. The relative strength ranking (as reported in Investor’s Business Daily) is no less than 70, but preferably in the 90s, which will generally be the case with the better selections. 8. Current price is trading above the 50-day moving average (exception “Low Cheat” setups Remark for 7: the relative strength ranking as reported by IBD is only accessible for IBD embers but the TradingView indicator 'Relative Strength (IBD Style)' by SKYTE can be used as an alternative. We at JS-TechTrading only consider stocks for our watchlists which are meeting all characteristics of Minervini's trend-template. Additionally, we are screening stocks for solid fundamentals using William o' Neils' CAN-SLIM methodology. This screening process in itself provides us with a significant competitive edge versus most other traders are doing.
Education
by JS_TechTrading
2
Trading FlowchartHello, dear TradingView members. This educational idea is a Trading Flowchart. It starts with simply explaining the main steps to make before trading and opening positions and how to identify our situation to gain better results. Before we start to trade, we should identify the trend. What is a trend? A trend is a direction in which an asset's price changes over time. Financial market traders identify market trends with the help of technical analysis. Technical analysis is a framework that identifies market trends as predictable price trends within a market (when the price reaches a support or resistance level). Since future prices are unknown at any given time, a trend can only be determined in hindsight (vs. forward). However, this shortcoming does not stop people from predicting future trends. The terms "bull market" and "bear market" represent increasing (rising) and decreasing (descending) market trends, respectively. Peak and bottom: In the price chart, the bottoms are the points where the demand pressure exceeds the supply, and the prices start to rise after a period of decline. On the contrary, the peaks are the points where the supply pressure exceeds the demand, and the prices start to decrease after an increase. There are three types of trends in general: Uptrend (Rising trend) Sideways trend Downtrend (Declining trend) Uptrend (Rising trend): When the price of a symbol or asset increases generally, the price trend is said to be bullish, bullish, bullish, or bearish. An increasing trend does not mean that the prices always have an upward movement; the price may sometimes go up and sometimes go down, but the result of this fluctuation is the price increase. The rising trend in the price chart can be recognized by looking at rising floors (when the new price floor is higher than the previous floor). Sideways trend: A lateral trend line is formed when the market remains stable, i.e., the price does not reach the highest or lowest price point. Many professional traders do not pay much attention to lateral trends. However, lateral trends play an essential role in scalping trades. Downtrend (Declining trend): When the price of a symbol or asset declines generally, its price trend is bearish, bearish, bearish, or bearish. A downward trend, like an upward trend, does not mean that the prices will always go down, but it means that the price may sometimes go down and sometimes go up, but the result of this fluctuation is a price reduction. A downward trend in the price chart can be recognized by looking at falling peaks (when the new price peak is lower than the previous peak). One way an analyst can see a trend line is by plotting trend lines. A trend line is a straight line that connects two or more price points. This line continues on the chart as a support or resistance line. An uptrend line is a straight line drawn to the right and up, connecting two or more low points. The second low point in drawing the upward trend line must be higher than the starting point. Uptrend lines support and show that even as prices rise, demand is more significant than supply. As long as prices remain above the trendline, the uptrend is considered unchanged. A break below the uptrend line indicates that a change in our trend may occur. A downtrend line is a straight line drawn to the right and down that connects two or more high points. The height of the second point must be lower than the first point so that the line has a downward slope. Downtrend lines act as resistance and show that supply is greater than demand even as the price declines. As long as prices remain below the trendline, the downtrend is considered intact. A break above the downtrend line indicates that a change in trend may occur. Familiarity with trend analysis Trend line analysis is a technique used in technical analysis. Trend analysis seeks to predict the price of a currency in more distant intervals with the help of data obtained by trends. Trend analysis uses historical data like price movement and trading volume to predict long-term trends in market sentiment. Trend analysis tries to predict a trend, such as an uptrend in the market, and follow that trend until the data indicates a trend reversal. Trend line analysis is essential because trends' movement ultimately leads to investors' profits. Examining a trend with the help of historical data of the desired currency predicts the future price of that currency for traders. Trading strategies with trend lines Now that we understand the meaning of trend lines and their types let's look at the strategies many traders use to identify trends and learn when it's the best time to open positions. To try to make better predictions on how the market will behave, so we can trade safer, we can use indicators. What are indicators? In technical analysis, a technical indicator is a mathematical calculator based on price history, volume, or (in the case of a futures contract) options contract information related to the timing of the contracts, which aims to predict financial market trends. Technical indicators are the central part of technical analysis and are usually designed as a chart pattern to predict market trends. Indicators are generally placed on price chart data to show where the price is headed or whether the price is in an oversold or overbought state. Many technical indicators have been developed, and new types have been invented by traders to obtain better results. New indicators are often simulated on historical price and volume data to see how effective they have been in predicting future events. Here are a few examples of those indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI): The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a strategy that helps identify currency price movements and buy and sell signals. RSI determines the positive and negative trend of the stock price by observing the average profit and loss in a certain period. The RSI is a percentage ranging from zero to 100 on a scale. Here is a complete educational idea of how RSI works: Fibonacci Retracement: Fibonacci Retracement is a method of using the Fibonacci tool in the chart of a financial asset, which is used to determine the amount of price correction and find possible return points (support and resistance) of that asset, starting from the endpoint to the particular initial. Here is a complete educational idea of how Fibonacci Retracement works: There are many more indicators we can use to get a better understanding of the market. For example, The Elliot Waves, Ichimuko Clouds, MACD, and The Bollinger Bands: I hope this flowchart gives you a better perspective on how to trade safer. Have you ever used this flowchart accurately? What do you think the pros and cons are? Do you think I missed something? Let us know your ideas. Good luck.
Education
by ShawnMCR
111
using EMA CROSSOVER with Williams Trend IndicatorPurely for Educational Purpose Only: Indicators Used: Chart: Use Heikenashi Candles (trend detection gets easier) Signals: Buy Sell SIgnals are given by ema crossover indicator. Signals are triggered whenever EMA 5 crosses EMA25 in both directions. Blue Line: EMA 200 Long-term Trend Detection RED+GREEN Line: EMA100 Trend confirmation smoothed heikenashi candles for ENTRY parabolic SAR triangles for secondary entry signals ENTRY Condition: Buy: green candle + open above smooth candles+ ema 100 (Green Color) + open > ema200(blue line) Buy Confirmation: WIlliams Trend oscillator is above ZERO LINE and Green Color Sell: red candle + open below smooth candles + ema 100 (red Color) + open < ema200(blue line) Sell Confirmation: WIlliams Trend oscillator is below ZERO LINE and Red Color EXIT condition: when ever candle closes below smoothed candles for Buy when ever candle closes above smoothed candles for Sell
Education
by traderharikrishna
1
Trendline and Channel Tutorial: Part 2In part 2 we discuss how to construct and utilize sloped trendlines (TL) and Channels in order to better understand the ebb and flow of supply and demand. Like most other charting techniques understanding supply and demand and its relationship to trends and channels depends on you staring at hundreds and thousands of bar charts. Unfortunately, there just isn't a shortcut. It's hard work. Uptrends represent the "stride of demand." They are a graphic representation of the willingness of the composite investor to enter new longs at consistently higher prices. The parallel channel top is the overbought or supply line. A point in the trend where the composite investor might be reliably expected to reduce their long positions. The median line represents (roughly) the center of the channel. At times (as in the commodities example) the median line may have a basis in the chart pattern, but more generally is simply scribed roughly in the center of the channel. The median line is useful in gauging supply and demand relative to the channel boundaries. TLs need to be constantly adjusted and often are messy. Most of the time these adjustments occur with a significant lag, but even with the delay the channel helps to define and visualize the aggresiveness or lack thereof of the supply or demand. In the markets that I am most interested in, I constantly adjust the channel elements to best reflect the latest pivots and chart elements. In my analysis I also use volume, Wyckoff principles and other techncial methods to build the viewpoint. TLs and channels are like any other technical pattern in that they are much stronger and more understandable when combined with multiple methods and tactics. These patterns are fractal. They occur in all time perspectives from 1 minute to decades and are generally analyzed in the same manner. Generally Speaking: -The relationship of the market to the demand line and the supply line relate to the aggresiveness of the demand. -Ideally a reaction higher from a demand line should cover the entire distance to the supply line. A failure to push to the overbought line (the channel top) is often a sign that the trend is weakening. -A modest overthrow of a supply line is generally a sign of demand, but if the overthrow occurs late in the trend and represents a significant acceleration, there is potential that it is terminal (see the commodities chart). -A failure to decline completely back to the supply line is a sign of relative strength. -How markets relieve overbought conditions within the channel is important. A move to the supply line with an overbought RSI (or momentum oscillator of your choice) that subsequently moves laterally is a bullish show of demand or strength. -A modest violation of an uptrend would suggest a weakening in the underlying trend while an inability to fully decline to the uptrend would suggest a trend gaining strength. Bloomberg Commodity Index Daily: The channel in commodities that has defined trading for most of the last two years displays many of the concepts. Note that like most other TLs and channels the process can be messy. Adjusting demand, supply and median lines as the market evolves takes practice. -From the pandemic low in late March 2020 commodities began an extended daily/weekly perspective bull market. At the end of September (B) the market formed a pivot that allowed the projection of an initial demand line. It also allowed the projection of an initial supply line from point A. -As the channel progressed, the markets behavior made it clear that demand was strengthening. Highs were overthrowing the initial projected supply line, reactions from the initial supply line were finding support ABOVE the demand line and when momentum (RSI) became overbought, it was being relieved through mostly lateral to higher prices. All represented strong underlying demand. -While the initial supply line proved inadequate it did provide a median line to the eventual channel. The median line offered important support or resistance on multiple occasions. -Soon after point C, a new supply line could be projected. -From March through September 2021 the market held solidly above the midpoint of the channel. This is clearly a sign of strong demand and bodes well for additional gains. -After testing the demand line in late 2021, the market once again moved back to the supply line. The easy move higher (no notable counter trend reactions) suggested a lack of sellers. Combined with the prior long lateral move above the midline, it was obvious that buyers were in complete control. -In February 2022 price exploded above the top of the supply line as the demand that had been evident for months completely overwhelmed the available supply. -Often a significant overthrow of the supply line is terminal. In this case the market produced a three drives pattern before beginning a steep decline. The break below the pattern trendline is a good example of a type 3 trendline. In Part 3 we will look at another example (Ten year Treasury yields) and explore using demand and supply lines as a trading vehicle. And finally, many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Taylor Financial Communications Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
CBOT:AW1!Education
by CMT_Association
38
ETH/USD Main trend. Accumulation/Distribution. Pivot pointsThe chart shows the main trend (most of it) of this cryptocurrency. The timeframe is 1 week. Most people "trade" and do not understand the profit values of the price from the real set zones (not hamsters). Also shown are the recruitment zones (horizontal channel) and partial reset zones (until the triangle decoupling) of previously gained positions of large market participants. The last video explained this in detail and showed it on the example of this coin. Even taking into account that this triangle (1.5 years) is a position reset. That doesn't mean that this formation must necessarily break down. But, this is something to keep in mind, especially the +3600%. Volatility narrowing, that is, the end of triangle formation is a “doubt zone”—the “market fuel” (small and medium market participants) for the impulse is clamped down. That is, the decoupling of the triangle and the direction of further trend development. The price is clamped into a triangle. A formation of this magnitude will only unravel due to future world shocks, especially financial ones. Who knows, maybe this time there will be no correlation at all, as the time of "coming out of the shadows" approaches. Always trade within your working range (for example 1 day), always understand where the price is in the main trend. Based on this understanding, limit the risks, and make a decision about reducing (partial liquidation) or, on the contrary, about adding to the position. Locally on the 1-day timeframe a wedge is formed on the decline. I've shown all the decoupling options for this trading situation in detail in this trading idea, as well as in the video. ETH/USDT Local trend. Channel. Wedge. Pivot zones. Under idea fixed my previous trading as well as training/trading ideas where I accompanied the price in updates for quite a long period. Note the exact values and more. You can use the material in them as educational, based on reality. Remember, the basis of trading is not guessing (that's what everyone wants to do), but your trading strategy and risk management based on your knowledge and experience. Those who want to guess tend to lose money. Do not be such characters in the market, that is, its fuel. I wish all smart people a big profit, and wish all stupid people to wake up from the dream of stupidity.
Education
by SpartaBTC
6
A simple trend-following strategySo I like to trade without speculation, but if I do decide trade *with* speculation, then this is a way that I like to do it. This is my version of the Turtle trading strategy. I really don't know or care what their specifics are, because I just don't have the patience for anyone who unironically trades daily timeframes. My version of this strategy is all about finding momentum candles that breach support and resistance and then giving them room to grow. So... first thing's first. Once you've decided on your level of risk, then under *no* circumstance can you break that during this process. I cannot make this any more clear! If your risk is $15, then it's $15 from start to finish. If it's $1000, then it's $1000 from start to finish. This way, as you follow the trend, you create a scenario for yourself where your wins (which will in all likelihood be less frequent than your losses) will be very big wins. We're talking like 15:1 ratios on a 1 minute chart wins. Now, because you have to stick to your level of risk, that means you have to get your math right when you're dragging around your stop losses on multiple tickets. If you have 4 buys in different positions, you have to get your exact stop loss level correct for all of them so that your total risk doesn't exceed what you risked when you started this trade setup. So the rules: 1) You enter on the close of a momentum candle (and a momentum candle *only*) that breaches a recent support or resistance. This is a break of structure and is indicative of a potential reversal. It does not mean the price is reversing, and it is likely you will lose this trade. You stop loss goes underneath the momentum candle, and that's how you'll measure your risk for the first ticket. 2) You only add to your position on momentum candles that come after a pullback. You're not looking for Fibonacci numbers or anything, but just look at the exact candlesticks. You want to see a conscious effort from your opposition trying to drive the price down, preferably with some consolidation candles that follow afterward. Then, when you see a momentum candle following the trend you're trying to ride (preferably with little to no wick in the trend direction), you add to that position. 3) You repeat step 2 until you have a ratio that you're happy with, or if you see a break of structure, as in a pullback pivot point being exceeded. That's it. That's the entire strategy. It's simple and effective, but it will only make you money if you're disciplined and stick to the rules. With that said, let's have more examples... I think I messed up in this picture actually - there's a break of structure right at the top of that first wave, so I probably would've seen the writing on the wall and would get out. The only reason one might stay in on this logically, is because the downward pressure isn't momentous. Identifying momentum is extremely important to this strategy. I would highly recommend mixing my non-speculative strategy in with this one so that you're not losing money by waiting (missing out), getting frustrated and entering on bad setups, or having to feel like you've taken a loss simply because you were wrong. My non-speculative limit order trade plan fuels my account to make these kinds of trades.
Education
by WinkleTrades
2
Trend Rating IndicatorThe purpose of this indicator is to visualize the major trends with a minimum lag and a plot relatively true to the chart. Here for display and testing the candles are colored according to the main plot ("RATING"), but it is not necessary to use this option for the indicator to be useful. This indicator judges the asset on a multitude of factors and awards points that accumulate. - The RSI of all these ratings is displayed under the name "RATING". - A filtered version "Swing Gaps" which only appears in overbought or oversold, but show an area when the swing is complete. - Different crossover signals are available.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by LOKEN94
4
Observations on Technical Verses Fundamental Analysis:Trend Following and Growth Investing In Technical Analysis (TA), trend following is the equivalent of growth investing in Fundamental Analysis (FA). Further, in TA, mean reversion analysis ("overbought" and "oversold") is the equivalent of valuation ("overvalued" & "undervalued") in FA. In both trend following and growth investing, the focus is on finding the best trends (price in TA, revenues in FA), without regard to "value". Therefore, a trend follower will hold onto a trending stock, regardless of how "overbought" it gets, much like a growth investor will hold onto a growth stock, regardless of how "overvalued" it gets. Conversely, a mean reversion investor will buy stocks that are very "oversold" relative to some anchor, such as the 200-day average or 52-week high, regardless of the direction of the trend, while a value manager will buy stocks that are "undervalued" relative to some anchor, such as earnings or book value, regardless of current fundamental performance. In other words, both mean reversion and value investors are making the case that the trends (price or earnings) have simply gone too far and are unjustified. Understandably, we can see why trend following and mean reversion don't "work" at the same time, just as growth and value don't "work" at the same time. In the end, the line in the sand between TA and FA is ego. A pure TA investor accepts the verdict of the market in terms of what it deems fundamentally "attractive" visa vie the existence of either a positive price trend in a timeframe that is driven by fundamental trends (as opposed to short term trends and noise) or a magnitude of "oversold" momentum that overlaps with historical valuation measures. A FA investor, on the other hand, invests perhaps hundreds of hours developing a personal opinion of what is "attractive", and often finds him/herself at odds with the market's verdict. Since we can never make money until the market agrees with us, we can see then how a more holistic investor who has the wisdom to unite the strengths of trend following with growth investing (or mean reversion with value investing) is better off than those who use only one of those inputs. By leaning on trend, a growth investor will know when the market agrees with his/her painstakingly curated fundamental view, particularly when things are changing, most importantly from good to bad. Behavioral bias may prevent a growth investor from seeing the change in fundamentals that is being depicted by the change in price trend. Indeed, it is in this very moment (former highflying, expensive growth stock that breaks price trend in a meaningful timeframe) when "overbought and overvalued" conditions finally start to matter. David Lundgren, CMT CFA Chief Market Strategist Co-Host "Fill the Gap" podcast Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
AMEX:IWYEducation
by CMT_Association
13
MOVING AVERAGE TRADING | ADVANCED LESSONHello traders 👋 Today im sharing my trading strategy with moving average. What Is an Exponential Moving Average (EMA)? An exponential moving average (EMA) is a type of moving average, but it's better than MA(Only my opinion. It is one of the most important things in forex trade. Because this gives you the best direction of the trend. How to trade And Use moving average. 🧑‍🏫 When most traders use it moving average crossing. I don't think it's a good strategy. For me, when using it, looks at a trading setup. 1. Looking daily timeframe 👀 This is because you want to find the price action for a longer period and not just some light movement. 2. Draw ✏️ To draw a trend line ( if you don't know how to draw trendline watch my last lesson) 3. Add 50 EMA 📉 4. The Basics of Support and Resistance + key levels ✔️ the concept is applied in order to maximise the chances of winning trades. 5. Looking for entry + risk management 💰 Always wait for confirm example; trend line break + price making lower low + pullback + add indicators. In this lesson, we expect EURJPY to fall below 134.50. Let's see what happens in the future. 🤲 If you are enjoying the lesson, please hit the like show your support. 🤲
Education
by YertuntsTrader
2
TRENDLINE TRADING | Advanced trading lesson Hello traders 👋 Today im sharing my trading strategy with trendlines. It's my first education post, so maybe a lot of mistakes. Please don't take it the wrong way, thank you. Let's talk about lesson What are Trend lines? Trend lines are diagonal lines that are drawn on charts in the financial markets trading. Trend lines are used to highlight , visualize , and make price action easier to analyze on different instruments and assets in the financial market. How to trade And Use Trend Lines + basic supports. 1. Wait for touch ⌛ When drawing a trendline, the first thing price is check the three times or more. If the price is not checked three times or less, can't draw trendline. 2. Draw ✏️ To draw a trend line, you must choose a time frame. I'm use always bigger than 1 hour timeframe . This is because you want to find the price action for a longer period and not just some light movement. 3. The Basics of Support and Resistance + key levels ✔️ When trading with trend lines, the concept is applied in order to maximise the chances of winning trades. 4. Looking for entry + risk management 💰 Always wait for confirm example; trend line break + price making lower low + pullback + add indicators 🤲 If you like my strategy, Please like and comments. 🤲 Thank you!
Education
by YertuntsTrader
8