The birth of the chart. The evolution of the tapeLast time we studied how the exchange price is formed, and we found out that it is important to learn how to read charts correctly in order to analyze price changes correctly. Let's see how a chart is made and what it can tell us.
Everyone who went to school probably remembers: to draw a function, we need the X and Y axes. In stock charts, the X-axis is responsible for the time scale, and the Y-axis is responsible for the price scale. As we already know, a chart is built on the basis of data from a tape. At the previous post , we have produced the following tape:
FB $110 20 lots
FB $115 5 lots
FB $100 10 lots
Actually, in addition to ticker, price and volume the tape also fixes time of trade. Let's add this parameter to our tape:
FB $110 20 lots 12/08/22 12-34-59
FB $115 5 lots 12/08/22 12-56-01
FB $100 10 lots 12/08/22 12-59-02
That's it. Now this data is enough to put points on the chart. We draw three points, connect them with straight lines and get a chart.
At one time, this was enough, because trades on the exchange were not frequent. But now some popular stocks, such as Apple or Google, have hundreds of trades per second with different prices.
If the minimum division on the X scale is one second, what price point should we put if there were many trades at different prices in one second? Or let's place all the points at once?
We will discuss that in the next post. And now, as a postscript, I want to show you some pictures describing how the tape was born and evolved.
Here is a picture of a stock player, looking through a tape with quotations, which is given by a special telegraph machine.
Each telegraph machine is connected by wires which, like a spider's web, entangle New York City.
1930's broker's office with several telegraph machines and a quotation board.
An employee of the exchange looking through a tape of quotes. It won't be long before all this is replaced by the first computers.
We'll continue today's theme soon.
LONG
Market order or the hunger games of stock tradingThe previous parts of the post can be found at the links:
Part 1 - How is the share price formed on the stock exchange? We do it
Part 2 - Bid/Offer: The Yin and Yang of Stock Prices
So, let's continue. So why don't we ever see some orders in the order book?
Because such orders don't have a price, which means they can't be arranged in a book where all orders are sorted by price. This type of order is used by buyers or sellers who don't want to wait for a counter offer with a suitable price.
"But how can you buy or sell something without specifying a price?" - you ask. It turns out it's possible. When you put out an order without specifying a price, the order simply "eats up" the number of lots you need at the prices currently on the books. Such an order is called a " market order ". We can say that the most "hungry" investors who want to satisfy their "hunger" right now use the market order. Remember yourself: when you really want, for example, a cake, you won't stand at the counter and wait for the seller to set the price you want, you'll just buy the cake at the price that's valid at the moment.
So, let's imagine that someone sent the following order to the exchange: " to sell FB stocks in the volume of 20 lots". Such an order will not appear in the book, but it will "eat" all bids within 20 lots, starting with the most expensive ones.
In our example, there were a total of 15 lots left in the book, so the following concluded trades will be printed in the tape:
FB $115 5 lots
FB $100 10 lots
What will happen to the remaining market order of 5 lots (20-15) that couldn't be filled? The exchange will cancel the order for this remainder, as there are no counter offers in the book.
So, let's review what we learned in the current series of posts:
- For each company, the exchange maintains its own order book for buying and selling stocks;
- A buy order is called a "bid";
- A sell order is called an "offer";
- The order must contain the ticker (abbreviated name of the stock), the direction of the transaction (buy or sell), the price per share and the volume in lots;
- The lot size is set by the exchange. It may be equal to 1 share, 100 shares or some other quantity;
- All orders in the book are called "limit orders";
- There is a special type of orders, which are called "market orders". They have the following parameters: ticker, trade direction, volume in lots, and have no "price" parameter.
- The intersection of buy and sell orders by price creates a trade;
- The volume and price of a trade depends on how much volume was "eaten" in the counter offer and at what price;
- The trade is recorded in the tape. Each company has its own tape.
By the way, our book became empty because all limit orders were filled and no new ones came in. As a result, we have a tape of three trades. The trades are recorded in the tape according to when they were made:
FB $110 20 lots
FB $115 5 lots
FB $100 10 lots
So, when you see a flashing stock price somewhere, like in the broker's app, know that it's the last trade in the tape as of the current second. Or if you hear that Tesla stock has reached $2,000 a share, that means that there's a $2,000-a-share deal imprinted in the Tesla tape.
To show how the stock price has changed over time, a chart is made based on the prices of the trades and when they were made. At its core, a chart is a demonstration of how the stock tape has changed over time.
Knowing how to read a price chart is a basic skill that you will use as you invest. I will tell you how to read charts at our next meeting.
Bid/Offer: The Yin and Yang of Stock PricesRead the first part of this post at the link: How is the share price formed on the stock exchange? We do it
So at what price and what volume will the deal eventually be made? To understand this, let's go back to the "price" parameter of the order.
When a buyer placed an order "to buy 25 lots at $115 a share", the exchange takes it as "to buy 25 lots at a price not more than $115 a share". That is the purchase price can be less than the price stated in the order, but not more.
And when the seller earlier submitted an order "to sell 20 lots at $110 a share", the exchange takes it as "to sell 20 lots at a price not less than $110 a share". That is, it is possible to sell at a price higher than that specified in the order, but not less.
Once again: buyers always put orders "buy at no more than such-and-such a price", and sellers always put orders "sell at no less than such-and-such a price".
So, we return to the situation with the crossing of prices. When the exchange detects a crossover, it begins to execute the order that has caused this crossover. In our case, it is an order for 25 lots at $115 per share. This order kind of "eats up" all sell orders that are on the way to the price of $115 (that is, everything cheaper than $115), until it reaches 25 lots.
Which orders were "eaten up" in our case? One single order to sell is 20 lots at $110 per share.
What was "eaten" is recorded as a buy and sell trade in what's called a tape. It's similar to the way a cash register punches a check with a price. The record looks like this:
FB $110 20 lots
However, we have a remainder after the trade is 5 lots, the remainder of those 25 at a price of $115. Since at this price (or lower) nothing can be "eaten", the order remains in the left page of the book until a suitable offer.
Let's see how the FB order book looks now, after the deal is done:
Let me note again that all orders in the book are sorted in descending order from top to bottom.
The concept of "book" is very useful for understanding how the exchange price is formed. In the past, when there were no electronic trading systems, there were so-called floor brokers, who used to collect and record prices and volumes of orders in a real book. Nowadays you may encounter alternative terms like Depth of Market (DOM), Level II, but they are all identical to the notion of an " order book ".
The orders to buy that we see in the order book are called " bids ", and the orders to sell are called " offers ". So, in our order book there are two bids and no offers. All bids and offers are called " limit orders " because they have a price limit.
But there's also a type of order that we will never see in the book. Why? I'll tell you in the next post.
How is the share price formed on the stock exchange? We do itYou already know that the stock exchange is a one-stop place to buy or sell stocks, whether you are a novice investor or a seasoned professional. But even if you don't trade stocks, you will still "come" to the stock exchange to find out stock prices.
Let's find out how the exchange price of a stock is formed. Regardless of what country the stock exchange is in, the rules for determining the price are similar for everyone. Let us understand how it works, as always, with the help of our imagination.
Imagine a large rack of books. Each book has a name on the cover: Apple, Facebook, Amazon, etc. Let's take one of the books, let's say Facebook, and open it. We will see only two pages, and they are both blank. On the left page we will record buyers' orders to buy shares, and on the right page we will record sellers' orders, respectively, to sell shares. So, every day the exchange, when it opens trading, essentially opens such a "book" and records every bid it receives.
What should be written in the order?
First of all, there must be an abbreviated name of the stock, or, in professional slang, the "ticker," to understand which book to get off the shelf. For example, Facebook shares have a ticker consisting of two letters FB, while Apple shares have four letters - AAPL.
Second, the order must indicate the direction of the transaction, i.e. "buy" or "sell". This is how the exchange understands whether to record the incoming information on the left or on the right page of the book.
Third, the order must indicate the price per share, so that the exchange can sort the orders in descending order of price from top to bottom.
Fourth, the order must specify the volume in lots, that is, how many lots of shares we want to buy or sell. To clarify: Shares on the exchange are not traded by the piece, but by the lot. The lot size is set by the exchange. One lot may be equal to one share, or a hundred, a thousand, or even ten thousand shares (depending on the specific share). This is really handy because the price of one share can be equal to, for example, the price of your computer (then 1 lot may be equal to 1 share), and sometimes 1 share may be worth as much as a box of matches (then 1 lot may be equal to a thousand shares). Why "may be"? The specific rules for determining the lot size depend on the laws of the country and the exchange itself. For example, on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the usual size of 1 lot is equal to 100 shares.
So, let's return to our example. Suppose we want to buy shares of FB at a price of $100 per share in the amount of 10 lots. Then the exchange will record the following on the left side of the FB book:
100$ 10
Then there is a seller who wants to sell FB stock at $110 per share in an amount of 20 lots. Then this is what the exchange will record in the right side of the book:
110$ 20
Then there is a buyer who wants to buy FB stocks at $115 per share in an amount of 25 lots. The entry on the left side of the FB book will look like this:
115$ 25
And now comes the interesting part.
Did you notice that the $115 price in the last buy order is higher than the single sell order of $110? That means the buyer is willing to make a deal at a price even higher than what the seller is offering. So at what price and what volume will the deal end up being made?
Please wait for the next post.
Picking rules - the Lynch methodBack in 1977, the still famous investment company Fidelity Investments entrusted the management of a small fund of $18 million to this very man. The next 13 years were impressive for the Magellan fund and its manager - the famous Peter Lynch. The fund's assets grew to $14 billion, more than doubling the average annual growth of the S&P500 stock index.
When he stopped actively managing assets, Peter shared his approach with the rest of us. Some of his thoughts inspired me to create my approach and may be useful to you as well.
1. The private investor has an objective advantage over institutional investors (e.g., funds) because he is more agile. He is not burdened by the need to coordinate his actions with the management of the company, and his purchase requests are easily satisfied by the market. Agreed, it's easier to buy for $1,000 than it is to buy for $1 billion. Thus, the private investor can catch prices that the big "players" will have a hard time getting.
2. Don't spend everything you have under your belt on stock investments. The trades will not be able to close "in the plus" just by your own volition. So first provide yourself with a financial safety cushion, a stable job and a place to live, and then start investing.
3. Admit to yourself: are you a patient person who is capable of making independent decisions, diving deep into analysis and soberly reacting to plus and minus changes? If not, practice, but on small volumes.
4. Never buy a company's stock if you can't explain what it does and can't talk about its financial performance. The stock market is no place for gambling. There are slot machines, etc., for that.
5. The company works for profit and grows because of it. So keep an eye on everything that affects profits. Evaluate the company not in monetary units, but in the number of profits.
6. Watch where the company invests its profits. If it's mostly capital investments that will probably make a profit someday, in the distant future - think about it. After all, the beautiful future as conceived may not come. If, on the other hand, the company is allocating its profits to buying its own stock, it means that management thinks the current stock price is attractive enough.
7. The success of the stock may be unrelated to the company's financial success. Beware of such investments.
8. A company's financial success may not be reflected in its stock price for a long time. However, the longer the period in question, the more direct the relationship. So if you select companies based on an analysis of financial performance, be prepared to make a long-term investment.
To this day, these thoughts help me look at assets consciously and not give in to spontaneous decisions.
What do you think of this approach?
I dream of entering the stock market. The question is: What for?Read the previous part of the post here .
Having received only denials, the owner of the workshop decides the following: it would be great if shares were sold and bought not in the offices of banks, but in one single place - the stock exchange. Then those who want to vote would be able to buy as many shares as they need votes. Those who want a discount will wait until the price on the stock exchange falls to an acceptable level for them. And those who bought one share would be able to sell it at any time at the exchange price. The owner likes this idea and decides to list his shares on the stock exchange.
Another term to remember is listing. Listing is the service of the stock exchange to allow the shares to be traded on the stock exchange.
Now the shares can be bought or sold in one place, simply by connecting to the stock exchange trading through brokerage companies. The banks, which have brokerage licenses, also liked it. The main thing is that now they do not have to convince clients to buy shares for dubious rights, you can just say that the price at the exchange is constantly changing, and if you buy shares at $ 1000 now (in the bank office), then a month later at the exchange you can sell them already at a higher price. This created a real stir around the company's shares, and they were bought up from banks at the IPO price - that is, at the original price of $1,000 per share.
A significant advantage for any investor is the ability to buy or sell shares quickly and easily. That is exactly the kind of opportunity stock exchanges provide. If there were no stock exchange, the owners of shares would have to look for buyers on their own. But now they have the opportunity to connect to the exchange and make a deal at any time.
As soon as the stock exchange started trading, the share price of the workshop came to life. This attracted new investors who tried to buy cheaper shares and sell at a higher price. Such investors include you and me.
So what we know so far:
- A company needs stock to sell a share of its business and get real money.
- Shares can only be issued by a public company.
- Shares give its owner rights: to vote, to receive agreed dividends, and to receive a share from a bankrupt company.
- The initial sale of shares to the public is called an IPO (initial public offering).
- During an IPO, shares are sold not on the stock exchange, but through brokers or banks.
- The first day of stock trading on the stock exchange is the completion of the IPO process.
- In order for the shares to be traded on the stock exchange, the company has to go through the listing procedure.
- It is only possible to buy shares on the stock exchange through a licensed broker.
- The exchange price is constantly changing during trading.
The workshop story may give the impression that we small investors are only being used to get money from us in exchange for unnecessary rights. However, it is important to understand that we are more interested in the opportunity to profit from the growth of the shares than in gaining formal rights. It is this desire that unites all shareholders of a company, whether you have one share or a million.
A joint-stock company can be compared to a hotel with many identical rooms. One share is one room. If the hotel is doing great and making a profit, investors will want to buy more rooms, and sellers will want to sell more rooms at a higher price. If the hotel performs poorly and makes a loss, then room owners will get rid of them (i.e. sell even at an unprofitable price to get money and find another hotel that is more attractive for investment).
The strategy I will share will be to find, figuratively, great hotels (in fact, joint stock companies) during a room sale (i.e., a period of declining stock).
We'll figure out how stock prices are formed on the stock market soon. See you next time!
Stock Company. Selling something that no one will buy piecemealSo, here we go. Start of the story here .
What next? How will he sell something that no one will buy in pieces?
He turns his company into a joint-stock company, which is a form of company organization that allows it to be split into shares. Our owner issues 1 million shares, that is, he sort of divides the company into 1 million pieces. Then he calculates how much his whole business is worth - let's say $1 billion. And if $1 billion divided by 1 million shares, you get $1,000. That's how he calculated the value of 1 share. Recall that our owner has decided to put only 25% of his business up for sale, that is, 250,000 shares. And if we multiply 250 thousand shares by the price of $1 thousand, we get $250 million in total - this is the value of the share of the company he plans to sell.
Now he has to decide: will he sell 25% of the shares to one or more buyers, or even an unlimited number of people. First, he was approached by one large investor who has $250 million to buy all 25% shares. But the investor shared with the owner a plan to grow the company and asked him to place his managers in high positions. The owner of the company didn't like it because he didn't want to lose control of the company, so the deal didn't go through. Then he was approached by several investors who promised him they would stay out of the company's business, but were willing to buy a 25% stake not for $250 million, but for only $200 million. That option did not suit the owner either. Then he decided this way: instead of negotiating with big buyers, I will offer my shares to anyone who is willing to pay 1 thousand dollars for 1 share. This offer is called IPO (initial public offering) . Remember this term, because you'll come across it quite often.
Our owner had agreed with the banks from which he borrowed money, that for a small commission they would sell his shares at $1,000 apiece to absolutely any buyer. But the first buyer asked the bank the question, "What's in it for me to own one share?" Through this question, we come to the point where we find out what owning stock gets us .
The bank answers the prospective buyer that:
- You will be able to manage the stock company by voting on matters of the general meeting of shareholders. The weight of your vote will be one in a million votes.
- You will be able to receive dividends if a majority of the general meeting of shareholders votes "yes" to pay dividends.
- If the company goes bankrupt, you will receive one millionth of its assets left over after all of the company's debts to banks have been paid.
The buyer decided he was being mocked and rejected the offer. After all, why should he have the right to vote if 1 his vote means little in the overall background. Why does he need dividends if they may not be assigned. Why would he need property that would be impossible to sell after bankruptcy.
But more about that in the next post.
What is a stock? Let me tell you a storyNow let's talk about what a stock is, why companies issue them, and why they attract investors.
To do this, imagine a story. Imagine a small shoe workshop with a single owner. Suppose he makes boots out of crocodile leather. His product is unique to the city and in demand, because these boots are very durable and comfortable. At this point, he can only produce one pair of boots a day, and the number of orders for boots is 2 pairs a day. To meet the demand of his customers, he hires an employee and buys twice as much crocodile leather and other necessary materials for the job. With what money? With all the profits previously accumulated. The workshop now meets the demand of two pairs of boots a day.
Later, the workshop receives a corporate order for 90 pairs of boots per month. In order to meet the new order, three more pairs of boots must be produced in addition to those two. But with what money to buy so many materials and hire three more employees? After all, even all of the previously accumulated profit is not enough for such a batch. In order not to miss out on a major customer, the workshop owner goes to the bank for a loan. The bank is happy to give him a loan secured by the workshop (which means that if the owner will not repay the loan, his workshop will be taken away). But all goes well, the owner hires three more workers, buys materials, and puts out five pairs of boots a day. With the proceeds, he pays the loan and interest.
Now, let's go back to that beautiful day when the shop received an order for 90 pairs. The owner could have declined the loan and waited for the accumulated profit, but to do so he would have had to negotiate with a potential buyer for a longer lead time for the entire batch, and that could have resulted in the loss of the order.
What it turns out: he needed the credit in order to ramp up production quickly, and thus the size of the business.
Taking advantage of the credit and constant demand, our workshop owner goes nationwide and becomes the most famous manufacturer of crocodile leather boots with many workshops all over the country. And a lot of people around him want to buy the successful business.
Then he starts thinking: on the one hand, he has a huge business that is profitable, and on the other hand, he has an opportunity to get money in exchange for workshops, stock of materials, employees' labor, business connections and reputation. In short, in exchange for everything he has created with his own hands and head, which is very difficult to sell individually.
He likes the idea, but in order to keep part of his business, he decides that he will sell only a share of his company - 25%. He did the math and realized that this money is enough for the rest of his life (and even to live another life).
What next? How does he sell something that no one will buy in pieces? Let’s continue next time.
The lifestyle of your savings, and why Big Mac?I've mentioned the word "risk" many times before, and it really is a very important word in the investment process.
Today I would like to focus on a risk that you should pay much attention to as a future investor: market risk, or in other words, the risk that you will have to sell the shares you bought cheaper than the price at which you bought them, and suffer a loss in doing so. You will face this risk all the time, which is absolutely normal, because at any time events can happen which will cause the value of the stock to fall.
It can be said that investing in stocks is a series of profitable and unprofitable operations. So don't get discouraged and pour ashes on your head if your first trades are unsuccessful. That's part of the process. Investing is not a one-time transaction to make a quick profit, it's a way of life for your savings.
Remember the fundamental and simple rule of investing - the expected return is roughly equal to the risk you take. So, when you place money in a bank deposit, the only risk you take is that your money will depreciate by the difference between the rise in prices and the deposit rate.
The easiest way to explain this is with Big Macs. Let's say you have the money to buy 100 Big Macs. But you don't spend it, you put it under your mattress. A year later, because of a price increase of, say, 7%, you can buy not 100, but 93 Big Macs with the money from under the mattress. Every time you put money "under the mattress," you reduce the purchasing power of your savings. To preserve it, you can put your money in a year's deposit at the bank. That way, in a year, you'll withdraw the original amount from the deposit, plus a profit in the form of interest. Even if prices go up, as in the last example, you can buy 99 Big Macs, not 93.
Why not 100? Because the interest rate on a deposit is usually less than the percentage increase in prices (that is, inflation ). In our example, it was 6% versus inflation of 7%.
If you choose not to keep money "under the mattress" and not to open a deposit, but to invest in stocks, then at the end of the year you can buy, for example, 150 or only 50 Big Macs, because you are dealing with a potentially more profitable and therefore more risky instrument.
This is how the fundamental law of investing works, let me remind you again: as much risk as possible profit.
Thanks to this law we can refine our formula: investing in stocks is buying a share of a company with the goal of getting a future profit from its sale and being aware of the risk of a possible loss. Awareness of the risk of possible loss is an obligatory variable of our formula, an obligatory ingredient of our investment recipe.
Awareness of the problem is already a big step towards its solution. It's impossible to completely eliminate risks, but with proper management their impact can be minimized.
So, after studying the entire series of posts, you will get the necessary knowledge and practical skills to:
- find shares of companies interesting for investment;
- evaluate the financial condition of companies;
- determine the conditions for buying stocks;
- determine the conditions for selling stocks;
- manage risks;
- take into account the results of your operations.
You will have a ready-to-use strategy that will always help you find the answer to what to do or not to do with the stock at the current moment in time. You will not have to chain yourself to the monitor and do it all your time. You won't spend any more time doing it than you do watching the news or social media. You will learn to think like a intelligent investor, and you certainly will become one, if you are prepared to open yourself up to a very interesting and fascinating field of knowledge - stock investing. I sincerely wish you success on this path!
Raising initial capital: 4 approaches, of which one is not goodLet's break down the thought from the previous post in more detail. Obviously, to buy stocks, you have to have money, and if you are determined to become an investor, get ready to open your piggy bank. If you don't have savings, however, don't despair, there are other options.
I suggest you look at the following 4 options for acquiring the finances to buy stocks :
- Reduce your current expenses
- Sell unnecessary assets
- Increase your regular income
- And the option I don't recommend using at the start is to borrow.
I immediately stipulate that it is your, and only your responsibility how to apply the knowledge gained - to use something of the proposed or to go another way. I do not insist on anything. Rather, I am sharing information, but the decision is up to you in any case.
My opinion - always start with reducing your current costs, because the funds you save now give you a chance to increase your wealth in the future through investing. Make it a rule to plan your purchases in advance and buy only what is on your list. Don't go to the store without a list, otherwise you will buy more than you really need.
Next. Look at your possessions. Make a list of what you can sell without compromising your financial and mental well-being. Let what you don't need now serve to increase your wealth in the future.
Increasing your regular income is probably the most time-consuming but feasible way to accumulate funds for investment. Many people are often faced with the problem of choosing between a job they love where they don't earn enough and a job they hate with a higher income or, even worse, a job they hate with a paltry income. In the latter two cases, I recommend becoming an active user of services that will help you find the job you want (but don't act in haste, don't quit a job you don't like right away). Remember our goal is to keep and increase our income, not lose it altogether. In the case of a job you love and don't make much money, think about how you can increase your income in your current job. Sometimes all you have to do is make up your mind and ask your employer for it. Even a small increase will help you start saving. And if you have both a job you love and a desired level of income, I congratulate you, you are truly lucky.
Moving on. Borrowing for investments is the riskiest option. I highly do not recommend it, especially at the beginning of your investing journey. You definitely should not take a loan from a bank or other financial institutions. The credit rate will only increase your costs, and the need to repay the loan every month will break your entire investment strategy.
If family, friends or acquaintances are willing to lend you money long-term and without interest, think about whether your lender is aware of the risks and whether you are aware of the risks associated with investing in stocks, and whether this person will demand the money back before the agreed upon deadline. Even if you have agreed on everything, write down all of the terms of such a private loan on paper, so it is easier to resolve any disputes.
I always insist that the investment is conscious, that you understand and are ready to bear the responsibility and risks. So if you have even the slightest doubt about the borrowing option - don't take it! Consider another option. Ideally - work out a step-by-step plan and accumulate the necessary amount of money gradually.
Invest during crisis. Here’s why.Let's take Adidas shares as an example.
To date, since the company's IPO in April 1998 the CAGR is 4.4%.
At the IPO, the market price was 39.68 euros. 1.5 years later, in February 2000 – 70% less, 14.06 euros. CAGR would almost double: 9.6–9.8%.
Similarly, for example, all subsequent highs and lows: 6.1% vs. 11.1%, 3.1% vs. 8.7%.
Unfortunately, the probability of buying at the very bottom is small. But we have to try.
What about now?
THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
Investing is the ability to say "no" so that you can say "yes"Have a wonderful day, my dear friends!
Let's get acquainted. My name is Capy. Someday I will tell you my stunning life story, and how fate has tied me to investing. I can't quite believe it myself sometimes... But that's not what today is about.
Today I'm starting a series of posts to introduce you to my vision and strategy in the very multifaceted and insanely interesting topic of stock investing.
Let's start by figuring out why you should be an investor?
Many people think that investors are some kind of Wall Street wolves who trade stocks of companies and make unimaginable amounts of money on it. I'm sure there are those too. But, in fact, investing has long ceased to be the monopoly of the employees of banks, brokerage companies or big businessmen.
Investing is available to absolutely everyone who plans their wealth and has the basic knowledge obtained at university. Or aspires to learn this indomitable beast. This is the reason I started this blog: to help everyone who wants to understand and share my ready-made strategy that you can apply in the process of investing.
It's worth saying that every one of us has done the act of investing at least once in our lives, perhaps without even realizing it. For example, when placing money on a bank deposit (the well-known bank deposit), renting out real estate, opening a business or just learning. All these actions have one common formula: you give something away now in order to get it back in the future and, in addition, to make a profit.
When you rent out an apartment, you cannot live in it because you have given it to other people to use. But when the lease expires, you'll get your apartment back, plus a profit in the form of the rent you've been receiving all that time.
When you start a business, you put money into it so you can pay it back later through the proceeds. And, of course, you expect the returns to exceed the costs invested.
When you invest in education, you plan to use what you have learned to achieve something, whether it's getting a job or enriching your inner world.
It is the expectation of profit that is the main motivating factor for the investor and the main purpose of the investment.
If you give someone an apple and they give it back to you after a while, that's not an investment. And if you give someone an apple, and after some time you get two apples back - you are already an investor, because you made a profit in the form of an additional apple.
The upcoming series of posts will focus on one of the investment options - namely, investing in stocks of companies. I plan to teach you how to approach each trade wisely and in a measured way to keep you from engaging in short-term speculation that looks like a casino game.
Going back to our formula, a stock investment is a transfer of your money to a particular company in exchange for a stake in its business. The purpose of these actions is to make a profit in the future from the sale of the shares (in the case of buying cheaper and selling higher), or the second option - to receive dividends. Dividends are when the company shares with you a portion of the profits in proportion to your share in the business. But we will focus on the first option to make a profit, that is "buy cheaper - sell more expensive". And the dividends to consider as a nice bonus to this strategy.
I will publish a new post soon. Let's talk about approaches that will allow you to find funds for investment.
DCA for beginnersI made a visual explanation investing mid/long-term with DCA and of how effective DCA is and how to do it based on a weekly chart, no matter how much money you got, you can adapt to your capital
Understand that this is an example amongst many other and you are not obligated to follow this strategy, it's just to guide if you're new to DCA. It's not a financial advice.
also, it's important to understand the market cycles, and know when it's a bullrun, a bear market and an accumulation & expansion phase
HOW-TO: long with Cosmic BB SRHow to long a bullish trend with Cosmic BB SR? Long when price breaks above the current resistance level (😎) and close your position when a "New R Level" is formed.
Tutorial On How I Look For Entries/Exits Each Day - ATOMUSD - 1DHello traders,
I meant to publish this in the morning but I got pulled away on something else. It seems my analysis would have been correct, so I'll share this now.
This method is just one of many ways a trader can identify trend direction and entry/exit points at the beginning of each day.
To start...
I identify all patterns and indicator setups that indicate something bearish (the ones in red) or bullish (the ones in green).
I put a +1 tally next to each of them. After identifying all the setups I can, I count the tallies for bullish/bearish bias.
Today, even though the immediate term was looking bullish, there were more bearish signals than bullish ones.
For good measure I then like to do a left to right scan across the chart to see which ones are most prominent to the right (i.e. currently).
I saw the breakdown of the trendline on the right side of the chart, and paired with the bearish signals outnumbering the bullish signals.. I opened a short which was very profitable.
Importance of resistance and long-term chartsI just had to pop this chart on here this morning – it is the CBOT monthly wheat chart. It demonstrates that no matter what your time frame that it is important to look at long term charts and it also demonstrates the importance of resistance.
There are two resistance points to mention on here – the first is the 1349 2008 high and the second is the shallow parallel line I have drawn, which connects the 1977 low and the 2000 low. I shifted this line up to connect to the 1349 2008 high and this provided resistance at 1373. The market tested these twin perils in March and failed miserably. The mid-point of this range is about 810 and this where I suspect the market will head.
Disclaimer:
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BITCOIN IS THIS BOTTOM OR JUST STARTING At the outset, I would like to inform you that I have been a big fan of the wave theory in the last five years, but in science there are no feelings and biases, as well as in markets, and also the theory has not reached the limit of idealism and some critics say that it did not reach the limits of theory, it is only a hypothesis and It has been going on for such a long time because of its many possibilities. anyway , this discussion will be as simple as possible and easy for the public to understand, even non-specialists, and from them I will present some scenarios that I see as possible to happen on the Bitcoin chart.
# The first scenario:
Have we finished the FLAT and are heading to ATH ???!!!!
I wish if the answer to this question was clear and certain , this perception takes the third place out of four, and the reason for this is the downward wave from the top of 69 to the current levels not clear five wave .
Well, according to this scenario, the end of the correction is expected at the 23k, from which we start a new bull market (remember this scenario takes the third place among the possibilities)
The second scenario:
It is a rare but possible pattern, like what happened in the Dow Jones Index in 1966, which is the expanding triangle
In the wave principle, there are four triangular patterns(Without counting the irregular top) , and the below chart shows the expanding pattern, and it may develop and change into a second type of the family of triangles. One must be careful that the triangle is one of the most difficult patterns to anticipate early, and its volatility is very high.
There may be some intellectual fanaticism on the part of some wave analyzers regarding the internal structure of waves. they assert that they be from the zigzag family, and this condition is not true
The third and fourth scenarios:
They are the most important and most likely, which is that the wave from 69 to the current price is the first corrective wave of the model and it is formed with a 3 waves structure that is very satisfactory to the rules and guidelines, anyway, the main reason for my preference for this scenario is to study time cycles (note that time cycles are more scientific and have been worked on a lot), so since we are in the A wave of the structure and this wave was 3 waves , so the possibilities will be limited to that the pattern It evolves and takes a flat or develops and takes a triangular shape and the balance tends to the triangular model due to the economic and global conditions
I know that this perception of the next movement is boring and takes the sideway character (and sorry, but your Lamborghini will be delayed this time ) and the correction may end in the first quarter of 2024, but remember the markets are not devoid of opportunities
Well, what do we gain after all this talk showing charts ??
It is very simple and here lies the strength of the wave theory, so that all the mentioned scenarios agree in the upcoming movement, which is the rise to the levels of 48-50 thousand. This wave at least gives twice the profit without using the leverage, and what do you expect to happen to the rest of the alt coins in this rally : )
I wanted to post some mysterious Fibonacci sequences for Fibonacci fans but it might take a lot of time
Anyway, a little advice from me
Life is more beautiful than the trading markets, do not be addicted to the price movement and lose the most valuable thing you have (your time) I wish luck to everyone
My greetings
EURJPY +85.3 PIPSSo this i a classic retest trade that i took yesterday and holding till this morning,we se zone 137.776 holding,retest and buy after bullish candle broke above the wick of a previous candle thats my confirmation for entry,hope it can help someone understand better how to enter a trade.My original tp was 139.000 but i followed a trade 10 pips below,because it was close to tp,as u can see it reversed later so kept my profit secured.
Price Action Ranges| Range High/Low| Deviations
In this segment we will discuss the concept behind Price Action Ranges; they are periods of oscillation in the market where supply and demand is balanced. Once this occurs, there is a high probability of a price expansion out of the range.
The basic concepts in price action ranges are the following:
- Range High Resistance
- Range Low Support
- Range –Mid
- Deviations
Range High Resistance
- This is an area on the chart where resistance is present, price action tests this area before reversing back down
Range Low Support
- This is an area on the chart where support is present, price action visits this area for a test before reversing back up
Deviations
- Deviations occur out of the region to generate liquidity, it is designed to trap trader before reversing in the opposite direction.
BTCUSDT High Time Frame Oder Block In this section we will discuss what a price action order block is and how it is currently relevant to Bitcoin’s price action.
An Order Block is a trade location that has a cluster of price action, creating a liquidity pool. Once price action expands from the region, it automatically becomes support or resistance – hence a block,
This area once penetrated will act as a range, causing a period of price action oscillation. The Order Block can be dissected into three sections, the high (resistance), the low (support) and the middle (equilibrium). Whichever region price action breaks from will lead to a continuation or a reversal in the overall trend.
In essence, Bitcoin can remain trading in the Order Block before until decisive bottoming or continuation structures are developed.
Hope this educational peace helps!
Part 2) Don't Fight The FED. The Yield Curve is Fine.All over financial news we're being told that the yield curve is inverting, spreads are flattening, the recession clock is ticking, there's impending doom around every corner. CNBC, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, The Economist, you pick your favorite news source and they're talking about 2's and 10's, 10's and 30's, it's Armageddon!!!
How about we look at the actual indicator the FED uses to predict U.S. Recessions. The Federal Reserve uses the 10-year/3-month term spread as it's most reliable indicator to predict U.S. Recessions. The charts posted above come directly from the Federal Reserve of New York's website. According to the FED's data the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months is about 6%.
Here is the link to the website:
www.newyorkfed.org
Link to the interactive charts:
www.newyorkfed.org
Link to FAQ's:
www.newyorkfed.org
The team at All Star Charts did an interesting post on this topic just recently. I suggest you take a look.
allstarcharts.com
Food for thought. Thanks for reading. Good Luck to All!!
Educational: Head and Shoulder Reversal Patterns.There are a number of reversal patterns that playout time and time again. The most reliable of the reversal patterns is the "Head & Shoulders" top and bottom. Some technicians don't like to use the term head & shoulders as it's used quite a bit and not all reversal patterns are confirmed and end end up being consolidation patterns instead. Whatever you like to call the pattern is irrelevant. What is important is that you can identify the pattern as it signals possible distribution and reversal of the prior trend.
Some Background on Chart Patterns:
Charles Dow first introduced Dow Theory in his writings in the Wall Street Journal well over 100 years ago. Dow Theory is the origin of trend following. In 1948 Edwards and Magee introduced Technical Analysis of Stock Trends. This book expanded on the work done by Dow and introduced chart patterns as a system to identify changes to the existing trend. In 1997 John J. Murphy introduced Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets which is considered by many to be the definitive work on trend analysis and chart patterns first introduced by Dow and refined by Edwards and Magee. If you're not familiar with these works I highly suggest looking into each.
Identifying the Pattern:
1) There must be a trend in place. If the H&S pattern is a topping pattern then the prior trend must be an uptrend. If the H&S pattern is reversed and is a bottoming pattern then the prior trend must be a down trend.
2) As the pattern unfolds and the peaks are formed, a clearly defined support line called the neckline must be present.
3) Volume will confirm the pattern. Volume should be decreasing at the peak of each point in the left shoulder, head, and right shoulder.
Confirming the Pattern:
1) The existing trendline is broken.
2) The neckline is broken.
3) The neckline will now act as resistance. (Often, but not always the price will try to reclaim the neckline shortly after breaking.)
The Pattern is Invalid:
1) If volume is not receding at each peak then the technician should be skeptical of the validity of the pattern.
2) The right and left shoulder should be similar in height. Often times they are not, if in doubt use volume as your indicator.
3) Either the neckline or the prior trendline is retaken as support.
Forecasting a Price Target:
Using the measured move technique, the distance from the peak of the head to the neckline can be forecasted from the spot of the neckline being broken downwards. This distance can be used as a minimum downside price target.
Example:
This is an Apple Daily Line Chart from November 2020 to March 2021. All the important elements of a Head and Shoulders Reversal Pattern are evident.
1) A prior trend was in place.
2) The formation of the left shoulder, head, and right shoulder.
3) Retreating volume at each peak.
4) Breaking of the trendline.
5) Breaking of the Neckline.
6) Price tries to recapture the Neckline but fails.
7) Minimum downside target is reached.
Conclusion:
Pattern recognition is as much of an art form as it is a science. As technicians we want to draw our lines with fat crayons vs thin pencils. Patterns don't always follow the text books. The key is to understand the main tenants of each pattern and try to spot their formations before they confirm.
Thanks for taking the time to read this. Good luck to all!
How to trade levels? How to play price? How I made 30x in 2 yrs!In this video:
I draw out a hypothetical initial investment.
I should how you can multiply your net profit by trading out and back in along the way to your final projected target.
This video is all about trading levels, a strategy I have developed from years of experience that has helped my to multiply my crypto profits exponentially.
I have 30x'ed my initial cash reserves over the period of 2 years.
I think you can too. I am going to show you how I did this.
