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How to Develop a Short Trade using Top-Down AnalysisGood morning traders! Today we want to show you a practical case of how to apply multiple timeframes for the complete development of a trade. In this case it is BMY stock, and it is a trade that we ourselves will take if what we are expecting happens. 🔸What can we find in this chart? - First, what we can see is that in the 4H timeframe, the price has been moving in a range of 15-20% since May. - A few days ago, the price faced the resistance zone that is around $64-66. We consider it a resistance zone since every time the price reaches that level, it encounters a strong supply, which generates its subsequent downward movement. - Based on this, we decided that once a clear rejection was given, we would look for an opportunity to take a short trade. 🔸Descending to the 15Min chart, we see that after the rejection in the Resistance zone, the price generates a breakout of the Ascending Trendline. - Added to this behavior, the Support zone is penetrated strongly to the downside, and then the price consolidates forming a corrective structure in a pullback to the Resistance zone (previous support). - This is our opportunity to look for a short trade. - The corrective structure offers us a correct and safe R/R ratio. - The point where we will look for the entry of the trade will be in the breakout of the local low, with a stop loss behind the structure and the resistance zone. - And finally, the maximum target of the movement is the uptrend line.
NYSE:BMYEducation
by ThinkingAntsOk
BITCOIN Minimum Target: $36000 - Full ExplanationGood morning traders! We hope you are having a beautiful day. 🔸Today we want to show you our vision of bitcoin in the short-medium term and explain why we see it extremely bullish. - Speaking a bit of the context and history, we can see that bitcoin hits all-time highs in late 2017, reaching almost $20,000. After this, there came an abrupt decline that found its lows around $ 3000. From there, the upward movement has been resumed. - During this year, this crypto has made almost a 200% bullish movement. - Analyzing the behavior of the chart, we see that it has potential to be a Cup and Handle movement pattern. 🔸Now we go with a little of theory: - The cup and handle pattern implies a movement in the price that makes a high, a decline correcting movement, a consolidation at lows, and then the subsequent upward recovery. You can clearly see the transition from lower lows and highs to higher lows and highs. After this, it needs a retest of the previous highs (double top pattern), and for a bullish corrective move. 🔸Now, does this imply that bitcoin is going to breakout and make an explosive bullish move imminently? - We do not know, but according to the characteristics of this pattern, no. - What we should expect is a retest of the Resistance zone (all-time highs), and then a corrective move (flag, triangle, pennant, etc.). Once formed, the idea is to trade the breakout. - The MINIMUM target of the movement is calculated by measuring the distance between the minimum of the range and the maximum. - This calculation gives us a distance of $16500-$16600, which, projecting it upwards, gives us an approximate target of $36000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by ThinkingAntsOk
3
What goes up has to come down - really?There is a received wisdom that what goes up has to come down. Well, this currency pair trend may defy that rule. We shall have to wait and see. For sure there are corrections to be expected. This begs the question of what does 'down' mean? Is 'down' - a correction? or - does it mean a fall below its original starting point? If you take it as below some original starting point then USDTRY may never actually go 'down' to a level pre-2011. If you take 'down' to mean a significant correction then yes the pair is overdue a correction. I would argue that a 'significant correction' means a retracement greater than 50% from starting point - to somewhere around 5. That may seem improbable but strange things do happen. I'm not making any predictions here. I don't do predictions. TRY met an all time low on Friday 12th Nov meaning it would have taken about 8 TRY to buy one USD (or one USD would have bought you 8 TRY). Then something 'magical' happened and it appeared to strengthen. This followed major turmoil in Turkey (read the news). But keep in mind that the ratio of USD to TRY is based on US Dollar strength, which is not easy to estimate, as everything is relative. If your US Dollar weakens further this could and bearish pressure to the ratio (that doesn't mean it's going south). Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Editors' picks
Education
by Captain_Walker
DAX COLLAPSE POSSIBLE: Does history repeat itself?This is an analysis of trend formation. The DAX (Ger30) appears to be in a precarious position. Several features are shown on the charts. No one knows what the future will bring. Some may have ideas but no one can know the future. Sound traders take positions with an acceptable, affordable loss. Looking back to 25th February 2020, no one knew with near certainty that the DAX would fall further from around 12600. Then it happened. This does not mean that in the current situation, I'm saying that the DAX will fall in the same way from 11600. It's a strange coincidence though that '600' appears in the numbers. Please do not attach significance to that. Some have been disappointed that I do not do predictions. I've explained my position on predictions before. Trend following requires no predictions. Why? Because one is just following the markets rather blindly! I've also explained how my unique methodology works in other posts. On a related note you can see that one thing the markets are deathly afraid of is the effects of COVID-19. Well, around now the world is facing second and third waves of the virus heading at speed for Winter in the Northern hemisphere. I have evidence for both second and third waves. Due to house rules this is not posted here. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FX:GER30Education
by Captain_Walker
It's not a bird. It's not a plane! It's a channel. Nobody really knows for sure why channels develop. There are loads of theories. I'm not interested. A channel is usually discovered late, obviously because the channel is evolving and then you see it. Unbelievable as it is, it is there. So what do you do. Well, I don't give advice. What I do is understand that there may be limited opportunity to exploit. I say limited because when late in the game, price can break up out of the channel or down out of the channel. That means that if price approaches either end of the channel, it is a critical time. All one can do is take the loss! It's called a stop loss. Channels also do strange things like break out and then go madly the other way. If everybody had a magic formula how to work them, everybody would be zillionaires. It ain' t happening! But there is still money to be made by following microtrends. That's where you follow small trends from 3 min to 15 min. These can take days to play out. For newcomers it's not a good idea to work blindly in a channel. Find other indicators to assist. Experience is also an important thing. As I always say blowing up 10 Tradingview paper trading accounts is far better than blowing up one live account. Get the safe experience almost totally for FREE!
FOREXCOM:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
MONEY BOTH WAYS - IS THAT OKAY?Many people have asked me what I'm doing and how I'm doing it. Basically - it's very different. This is an educational post. I'm an open book - no secrets. This methodology is a bespoke trend following strategy. It loses! You got that? It also wins. The job of a trader is to use any methodology to limit losses and maximise gains. That only comes with lots of practice. It doesn't matter which system you use. Perfect our skills on paper trading accounts - Tradingview has an excellent free paper trading account. Blow up no fewer than 10 of those. 😃😂 Seriously it's a good idea to do it that way. But in my own methodology, I've noticed that when following a trend it is a good idea to take profits in a sudden deep RSI if going short (and very high RSI if long). The rebellions nearly always comes. In this 2H strategy would be nested other trends on say 5 min or 15 min. Those who need to see more can check my scenario on Gold. I also combine 'theory of curves' in my trend expectations (not predictions). I predict nothing in trend following. How would I know how far the trend is going? I can't know! See also EURAUD 1H Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FX:GER30Education
by Captain_Walker
THE NEW GOLD - WAITING.There is a new gold in the world. Yes - that's right! Most people don't know about it. It's lying dormant and about to take of, in my estimation. In this chart I show - mainly for investor interest - 5 graphene stocks. Nobody seems to want them at this point in time. But what do you know about graphenes? Most people know nothing. For total transparency, I have no pecuniary interests or investments in these companies (as yet). In keeping with the house rules I am promoting none of these highlighted. This post is largely educational. Well, for electric bikes and cars, to aeroplanes that are on the horizon - graphene, a super-powerful and versatile material, is about to rise in demand. If you're a serious investor, you'll be jumping on the net to search the several uses of graphenes and technology developments. Let's step back a bit. In the midst of the COVID crisis, we saw the rise of tech, biotech and game industries. So think - what's gonna happen after COVID? The world is already moving swiftly away from petroleum based energy sources into renewable energies and the rise of 'electricity'. All this is likely to accelerate. Do that research. A few new developments are: 1 - Graphene batteries 2 - Graphene super-capacitors that will enhance current Lithium batteries, prolonging their life by up to 4 times. 3 - A new range of graphene conductors. 4 - Super-strong materials made from graphenes. There are dozens and dozens of graphene stocks lying dormant at this time. My job here is not to make any recommendations or give advice. I'm only raising awareness. Once COVID is either conquered or controlled, investments into uses of graphene are expected to rocket. As you can see in the recent price fluctuations, interest is beginning to bubble in these stocks. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
OTC:HDGHFEducation
by Captain_Walker
GOLD: Exploiting a trend - secrets shared! Some have asked me about my rather different methodology. This 15 min chart of Gold which isn't my favourite, shows it all. No secrets. No fees. No signups. No signals. No obligations! 😃👍 The position setup shown looks back only to show how it works. There are 5 points at which this trend could have been shorted. If you're a day trader, you might have lost some sleep on this one, but it would have been worth as much as 69 points, or multiply that by whatever you put in for a position sizes. If you had the 'bottle' (not recommending alcohol), you could have added one or two position sizes. (The trend shown could have happened on any time frame - no law says it couldn't. Unlikely on a 4H but who cares). Some knew that gold was likely to head south, but nobody could predict how far, when an important plunge came. Trends predict nothing. You just follow and 'a system' can determine your get-out point. I can't provide skill in this methodology. It sure has it's losses like any other methodology. I can only show how it's composed. The following are important: 1 - one has to spot the trend switch early - so alerts can be set up to spot it. 2 - flattening of price and trend may say something is about to happen (north or south) 3 - price alerts can be set up, so you know to look when something happens (if you're asleep - tough). 4 - an initial RSI plunge or punch does not necessarily mean that price is going to recoil - it could mean start of a big move. 5 - do not fear the RSI - but respect it. 6 - take some or all profits in a very deep or high RSI (depending on direction of trade). 7 - Watch for a 'theory of curves ' - it often gives a warning of the trend ending (approx 55% chance). Skill in any methodology means lots of time and effort sequencing and practicing. Do it on a paper trading account. If you don't do the time you don't get the 'dime'. One day traders will wake up to the value of teamwork. So some can take the watch while others have a nap - the 'watchman' wakes everybody when important stuff happens. 😃🤣 Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Captain_Walker
6
THE BIG PICTURE: Health is everything! Man and Money vs Virus! I think this chart will be of interest, in overlooking the big picture. I say what I see and it is largely about a health timebomb approaching. So I deal with some technical and hidden fundamental issues. Always say what you see on the charts! Remember TA is about sentiment - until reality catches up. 1 - A popped bubble. 2 - A reinflated bubble. 3 - A reinflated bubble struggling to remain inflated. 4 - Total daily cases of COVID continuing north. 5 - Total daily cases is rising above the area of struggle in the DJI. Note that the DJI represents sentiment in the top 30 major organisations - so it is important. I entirely accept that because total daily cases is summative, it is not a sound measure of the impact of the virus on health or control of the virus. But think deeply - yes these are fundamental issues - representing ' reality '. The total number of people infected means that a percentage of them will suffer lasting effects of the virus e.g. central nervous system problems, mental health disorders, clotting disorders, lung problems, heart problems and exacerbations of previous illnesses. This means there is a mounting economic burden that isn't quite realised by leaders. Why is biotechnology and services servicing those industries flourishing? Obvious - isn't it. Healthcare directed at fighting COVID has left lots of people with significantly reduced care for non-covid related conditions. What happens to those people? It can be expected that their health will deteriorate. I can't go into a whole list of medical conditions - but it's massive. There is only minor focus on the economic impact of that. Nations need 'health' for workforces to contribute well to 'the economy' and to service debt. Our leaders have focused on 'the economy' and preventing a major financial crash that was coming anyway. The virus was just the pinprick. There was in the UK recently a situation where health set against the economy. This was misguided simply because health is the economy. When people think of health they usually think of physical health. However, there is another ticking time bomb of mental health problems . Nobody knows exactly how big this is gonna be. If you thought people with physical health problems were neglected, then it is much bigger for those with new or pre-existing mental health problems. People who are mentally disabled but were managing with aids, adaptations and supervision aren't getting all that as they would have pre-covid. Is this likely to improve in the next 6 months? I don't think so. How can economies recover if they are beaten by seriously damaged physical and mental health of its workforces? Difficult one. Financial hardships are projected to get worse into Winter, in the northern hemisphere. That's not good for physical or mental health. I have little doubt that agents of the FED will pump this market north, and that Robinhoods will punch the air with the FED. However, you can't create a sound economy built on thin air. The bedrock of a sound economies are the health of people. If money printing would solve everything, then GDP and employment (of various types) would be irrelevant. Surely they aren't irrelevant. So - expect the unexpected, is what I'm saying. Near 100% retracements in the face of such fundamental issues has to be suspect. There could be a big 'drop' coming - so stay alert (no predictions today - only probabilities). Those hoping for Gold to rocket north may also have a surprise. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
Liquidation Levels Trading FuturesI've seen lots of people getting liquidated on there longs on this BTC dump. This is why I think people never take into consideration risk management or don't know how it actually works. Maybe this can help a lot of people and help them clarify things. YES, the getting rich quick by leveraging is a probability, but if you ask me, I would consider it luck in the 25x to 100x than in lower leverage positions. I think the getting rich quick scheme in crypto or FX is never talked enough and should always be addressed with proper risk management. This analysis is considering you long your whole portfolio with leverage (which most people do). If you want to long with high leverage, use 1% or 2% of your portfolio, try it out in Isolated mode first and see what it is all about. Your losses will teach you how to be a better trader, but never ever lose your ammo in your first try. I'll do a follow up of this chart with potential gains by leveraging.
Education
by Goldenperro
LONG & SHORT POSITION TOOL📚An In-Depth Look at Using This ToolThis illustration explains the functionality of TradingView's Long/Short Position Tool and is intended to help new people looking for more information on this tool in a "novice friendly" format. TradingView’s position tool will aid you in pre-planning and pre-evaluating trades and as such should be an essential part of every trader's toolkit . Note: At its simplest, the position tool can quickly show you the R:R (Risk-To-Reward) of a single trade. By doing a little extra work, you’ll be able to then use this tool to properly plan for the risk of all trades you are taking compared to your total account size. Hit that 👍 button to show support for the content! Help the community grow by giving us a follow 🐣 ----- Important terms: Tick = A tick is a measure of the minimum upward or downward movement in price. Trade outcome statistics = Used to track the outcome of a trade. Example: “Current XYZ position closed +5.25% gain 10840 account balance after trade impact” P&L = A representation of current Profit & Loss. Be careful where you position the tool, as the P&L is calculated based on the position of the tool. Here are two uses for the Position Tool: 1. Only R:R = To quickly find only the R:R of a trade. This method does not bother changing account balance and such is only acceptable if you are tracking your current account balance and doing risk calculations off-platform in something such as a google spreadsheet. 2. Risk+R:R = To ensure your current trade idea meets both your R:R and max risk tolerance (risk amount; in our case, 1%). This is achieved by changing the “Account Size” option every time you are building a new position. This is the advised method to use, since like your trade journal, it’ll help keep you accurate and accountable. ----- We will now explain the options contained within the tool’s input on-chart menu: Account size = The current available balance within your account, the keyword here is available. If you are using the "Risk" option explained below then this needs to be updated upon starting to create a new trade setup. Risk = Your max tolerable risk amount (either in absolute numbers or as a % of your account size). The default option is "absolute numbers," this uses the base currency of the on chart asset (If you were on ETHBTC, then the base currency would be BTC; for SPX500USD it is USD since this asset is displayed in its USD value). As you know, we suggest you stick to %. Entry Price = The price you will be entering the position at. PROFIT LEVEL: Ticks = The tick difference from the entry price to the profit target. Price = The take profit price. STOP LEVEL: Ticks = The tick difference from the entry price to the stop loss. Price = The stop losses price. ----- We will now explain all metrics being displayed on the tool while it is plotted on the chart: Top info panel: 1. The difference in base currency (USD) from the entry price to the take profit price. 2. The difference in percentage change from the entry price to the take profit price. 3. The difference in ticks from the entry price to the take profit price. 4. The hypothetical account balance after the take profit target is achieved. Middle info panel: 1. Simulated P&L from the entry price to where the current live price is. (Displayed in the base currency of the on chart asset, USD in this example) 2. The quantity of the asset that should be purchased at the entry price. This is calculated as follows: Qty = Risk / (Entry Price – Stop Price) 3. The risk to reward ratio, this is how much you could gain compared to how much you could lose. The calculation is as follows: Risk/Reward Ratio = ((Take profit price - Entry price) / (Entry price - Stop loss price)) Bottom info panel: 1. The base currency (USD) difference from the entry price to the stop-loss price. 2. The difference in percentage change from the entry to the stop-loss price. 3. The difference in ticks from the entry price to the stop-loss price. 4. The hypothetical account balance after the stop-loss is hit. ----- Lastly, we will explain how Position Size and Account Balance are being calculated by TradingView: Long Position Variant Position Size: Qty = RiskSize / (EntryPrice - StopPrice) Account Balance when a position is closed after reaching the Take Profit level: Amount = AccountSize + (ProfitLevel – EntryPrice) * Qty Account Balance when position is closed after reaching the Stop Loss level: Amount = AccountSize – (EntryPrice – StopLevel) * Qty Short Position Variant Position Size: Qty = RiskSize / (StopPrice - EntryPrice) Account Balance when a position is closed after reaching the Take Profit level: Amount = AccountSize + (EntryPrice - ProfitLevel) * Qty Account Balance when a position is closed after reaching the Stop Loss level: Amount = AccountSize – (StopLevel – EntryPrice) * Qty AccountSize: Initial account size specified in the settings RiskSize: If the "Risk" option is set to "absolute numbers" = Risk If the "Risk" option is set to "percentage of account size" = Risk / 100 * AccountSize ----- Reference: www.tradingview.com If we made any mistakes please let us know in the comments. There was a lot of formatting we needed to do to best display all of this information for you guys! Enjoy. :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by AlphaBotSystem
40
Recent AUD/NZD Long Trade Using ResistanceI caught a nice trade here yesterday on AUD/NZD. Price had recently broken through resistance, and we saw a strong bullish break out move. As the bullish momentum slowed down, we saw bears come back into power and drove the price back down to resistance. At this pint, we need to look for 2 actions: - Either price will break through the resistance level and the bearish move will continue, most likely down to previous support levels in which you could enter a short trade when the break through is confirmed. OR - We will see a rejection at the trend line where the price is struggling to break through the resistance, and bulls come back into the equation to drive the price upward. This is when you can enter a long trade. After identifying the rejection at the trend line, also in line with the MACD and RVI, I entered a long trade and banked a nice profit before bears came back into power and drove the price down. Support and resistance levels can be used to identify some lovely trade setups, as we have seen with AUD/NZD.
Education
by francesgurton
Clear points of entry for either scenario - VERY clean setup.This pair has been sat in some serious corrective price action. i'm hoping we can see a break next week. Which way do i think its likely to break? Probably up, but i'm also very aware that if the bears muster the strength to break that 1.180 area, then we also have a double top that could be good to trade to the bottom of that correction. Targets for the (potential) double top sit near enough directly on that bottom level. So to summarise, although i think this pair is likely to break above, i will not be trading my opinion. i'll be trading what i see. A break, close & pullback on the upper level and ill be looking for longs. A break of that (potential) double top neckline and ill be looking to short to the corrections bottom. MACD looking as though the double top could easily come into play, but as above, i'll trade whatever it wants to give us.
Education
by TeePeeFX
3