BCH - Algorithmic Entry and Target hit beautifully!I realise it's easy to state after the fact, but BCH has produced a clear example of fibonacci entry and first target hit.
I just missed my entry as I noticed this a little late, highlighting the difference between trading and TA.
However, its impossible to miss the confluence with the entry, RSI moving above 30, divergence appearing on the EWO and the entry at the Golden Pocket.
Stops just outside the 65 needed to be careful as a cheeky wick could have caught them.
Its also satisfying to see my automatic algo, written using pine script, producing a fantastic trade set up in seconds.
Sam
LONG
VERY IMPORTANT! How to see if a rally is Real or Fake!So many people blame the unpredictable price moves on the whales. (As if the whales aren't investors, too). In lack of better words these people are blaming the unknown for their failure to understand the market's environment.
Not to mention spending hours or days over-analyzing a fake rally that is 100% going to deflate
So, Dogecoin Shill, what do I do to become a super advanced trading master like you!?
Google trends. Go to trends.google.com, type in bitcoin. The bitcoin chart on google trends looks identical to the 1 year chart of bitcoin. As bitcoin's popularity increases, new money comes in and drives up the price. The charts have had one noticeable inconsistency in the last year, which is this recent rally. Bitcoin's price went up 50%, but the popularity stagnated and actually decreased a bit.
I took short position at $9k, and tried to post something here at the time but couldn't do it (I'm still figuring out this website) , and I apologize to my followers for that. If you were following me before, I predicted this recent rally in early April when i went long. Leave a like and follow, I do not post on here unless I am extremely confident in my predictions, and if I've already taken the buy or sell position.
Peace!
-Doge
LTC: Long Term Bull Theory Ticker: COINBASE:LTCUSD
Timeframe: 1D/2-3 years
Quick LTC long term theory more for me to reference back to. Will also dabble with a long term bear theory even though it scares the living piss out of me.
Short Term: Slightly Bearish
Mid Term: Neutral
Long Term: Bullish Af
Current Market Sentiment: Tired of the FUD, Skiddish Bear
Example of the Relative Strength Index Indicator on BCHUSDThe relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator. It is primary used to attempt to identify overbought and oversold conditions. It is considered overbought when the RSI indictor is above 70 and it is a sign to make a short, and oversold when is below 30 and it is a sign to make a long.
Example of an Exponential Moving Average (EMA)The exponential moving average may indicate an uptrend or a downtrend. It is a trend indicator.
A bullish signal is generated when prices move above the EMA, so make a long. A bearish signal is generated when prices move below the EMA, make a short.
The EMA works very well in long trends, however, does not work well in lateral movements or short periods and in those cases EMA gives false signals.
Example of a Symmetrical Triangle on ETHUSDETHUSD formed a symmetrical triangle. It has two trend lines. One uptrend line is acting as support while the downtrend line is acting as resistance.
Contains three highs lower and two lows higher. When these points are connected, the lines converge as they are extended and the symmetrical triangle takes shape.
The symmetrical triangle can be continuation or reversal, so we must wait for which line will break. To confirm the breakout, the price should close above the resistance line or below the support line. In this case broke by resistance, then we must make a long.
The profit target is the distance away as the back of the triangle.
Example of a Falling Wedge on EURUSDEURUSD formed a falling wedge, both lines are downtrend. The angle of descent is steeper on the resistance line. The pattern form highs lower than previous and lows lower as well. After a few attempts, the prices finally break through resistance.
To confirm the breakout, the price should close above the resistance line, if so, make a long. The profit target is the distance away as the back of the triangle.
Example of an Ascending TriangleGBPAUD formed an ascending triangle. We could see a horizontal upper line (that would be a resistance) and a lower uptrend line (that would be a support).
Prices moves with equal highs, and lows higher than previous.
Then after a few attempts, the prices finally break through resistance.
The ascending triangle is a continuation pattern. Prices come from an uptrend then prices bounce inside the triangle before breaking higher.
To confirm the breakout, the price should close above the resistance line, if so, make a long. The profit target is the distance away as the back of the triangle.
Example of a Support and Resistance lines.I want to show with this example how the price in a lateral movement oscillate in ranges between supports and resistances lines.
The target is the following, if the price bounces on a resistance, make a short until it reaches the support level.
If it bounces on a support, make a long until it reaches the resistance.
If the price breaks a resistance, make a long until the next resistance level.
If it breaks a support, make a short until the next support level.
Sometimes a price level can behave as support and as resistance, this indicates that it is a strong level.
WHICH BOOKS DID YOU READ? I don't see anyone talking about trading books so I'd like to share a few books that I read over the years and invite you to comment below with yours.
Regardless of whether you are a novice or an experienced trader every book has something to teach and it is quality time to spend off the charts.
The power of price structuresHere's a clear example of price structure: a few days ago the resistance level at 123.00 (tested multiple times in the past) has been broken and now it has been retested as support. Today's candle seems to confirm such level is holding as support but wait for candle closure.
USDCAD 4h Educational PostObserve the chart for a moment, and you will see the support trendline.
Now, price on the 4h candles has broken below this support trendline, but has never closed below it.
After the first three points on the trendline, illustrated by the first 3 circles, the trendline was established as valid.
(It generally is considered that 3 points are necessary for a level to be valid)
After the 3 points, the trendline was established, and even though there were 2 more circles after that, where candles went below the trendline, the 4h candles still closed above. The wicks in the last 2 points indicate that bulls reversed price in time for the 4h candle to close.
This trading week closed pretty nice for this pair, the third to last candle's lower shadow is as long as the body, and the following candle is very strongly bullish.
Therefore, I will be looking at a long position next week.
A lesson one could take away from this is that you should never take a trade that uses an unclosed candle, because it still has time to form completely differently, and it is a mistake that is very easy to avoid.
- For example, look at the two candles in the fourth circle: sure price went 30 pips below the trendline, but it did not close there. I can already tell you that there were traders that took this short position without waiting for that candle to close. Patience is key.
Another lesson is that higher time frames take precedence over shorter ones. One should not trade a 5 minute double top formation on a 1h or 4h,200 pip uptrend.
(USD/CAD)Trading Mistake. Taking profits too earlyTaking profits early was a hard lesson I had to learn. I occasionally still do it. See chart
For me, the key to LONG-TERM success in this business is not your win/loss rate, but the magnitude of your wins vs your losses.
My biggest mistakes have all come from taking profits early, not from taking small losses.
LEARN TO TRADE THE GARTLEY PATTERN IN 5 EASY STEPSSTAGE 1:
THE BULLISH IMPULSE LEG
A bullish impulse leg is a strong move in price action to the upside.
The impulse leg can be a mixture of bullish and bearish candles, but must have a bullish overall direction.
The start of the impulse leg should be marked as X and the top of the impulse leg should be marked as A.
STAGE 2:
B LEG RETRACEMENT
Now that you have identified your X to A impulse leg you are now looking for the B leg, which is a retracement of the X to A impulse leg.
Take your Fibonacci retracement tool and draw from your X leg to your A leg.
The crucial Fibonacci levels you are looking for are the 61.80% and 78.60%
Price action must at least touch the 61.80% retracement but cannot touch the 78.60% retracement.
As you can see by the illustration, the candle does not need to close below the 61.80% retracement but must at least spike through.
The bullish Gartley pattern will be invalid if price action touches the 78.60% retracement of the X to A move.
STAGE 3:
C LEG RETRACEMENT
Once you have identified a valid X to A impulse leg and a B leg retracement, you are now looking for a valid C leg retracement.
Take your Fibonacci retracement tool and draw from your A leg to your B leg.
The crucial Fibonacci retracement level you are looking for is the 61.80%
Price action must at least touch the 61.80% but cannot spike above the A leg resistance.
The candle does not need to close above the 61.80% but must at least spike through.
The bullish Gartley pattern will be invalid if price action spiked above the A leg resistance.
STAGE 4:
D LEG COMPLETION
Now that you have a valid X, A, B and C move you are looking for the final leg in price action at which point you will buy the chosen currency pair.
Take your Fibonacci retracement tool and draw from your B leg to your A leg.
You are looking for a 1.272% which will now give you a valid D leg completion of the bullish Gartley pattern .
STAGE 5:
PLACING YOUR TARGETS
When looking to take targets on the bullish Gartley Pattern the first step is to use your Fibonacci retracement tool.
With your Fibonacci retracement tool draw from the A to D leg, you are looking for target 1 at the 38.20% and target 2 at the 61.80%.
To protect the profits you have accumulated at target 1 it is advised you move your stop loss to breakeven once the 38.20% target 1 has been attained, thus giving you a risk free trade to target 2.
KEY NOTES & RULES:
When trading the bullish Gartley pattern, the pattern is meant to be traded at 1.272% D leg completion only. If you believe the pattern is unfolding but price is only at point B, be patient and wait until price reaches the D leg completion.
The power of the pattern comes from converging Fibonacci levels of all points from X to D.
Point B must at least touch the 61.80% retracement but cannot touch the 78.60% from the X to A move.
Point C must touch the 61.80% but cannot spike above the A leg resistance.
Point D is complete when price action touches the 1.272% retracement of the B to A move.
Stop loss must be placed below the X leg structure support.
Stop loss must also be a minimum of a 1:1 risk reward to the 38.20% target 1.
Target 1 at the 38.20% retracement of the A to D move.
Target 2 at the 61.80% retracement of the A to D move.
CURRENCY PAIR:
This pattern like any other is more profitable with certain currency pairs, you should do your own back testing on this before trading the pattern.
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DISCLAIMER:
Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
Bitcoin Price Analysis - Bubbles of the Past and FutureSince I got so amazed by the Gann fan and the Fibonacci time zone I tried to apply both to the historic Bitcoin chart and they align perfectly.
It may look like I drew the purple line of the Gann fan manually below the low of summer of 2013 and the blueish line by myself above the last two peaks, but no - actually the Gann fan is showing up there automatically based on the price data from the 2011 bubble.
You can see how the Bitcoin price growth has slowed down over the years as we moved from from the very explosive growing green channel in the beginning in 2010 quickly lower to the blue channel in 2011 and then over to the purple channel in 2012. Now the price growth is slowing down again for the fifth time as we are moving into the red channel. And watch the Fibonacci Time Zones, they seem to show up right between bubble cycles in the "stealth" phase before the "take-off". Something special is going to happen in early February 2015 which is going to fuel the next bubble (maybe the first ETF), since both this chart using 2011 data and my other chart where I used a Fibonacci Time Zone based on 2012,2013 data show a Time Zone line around February 8th, 2015.
P.S. Also check out my last charts with Fibonacci Time Zones:
and
