Get started

Priceaction

GAIL: This is why People lose moneyThis is one important case study as to why investors lose money in the stock market. Now if you look at the chart, Here is what you see: 1. 32 Months of pure range-bound consolidation 2. Clearly defined support and resistance zones 3. Five months of consolidation at the resistance zone 4. A beautiful high-volume breakout followed by a retest. 5. This is one textbook setup for a long trade So, We should go long here, right? If I zoom out of the chart, Here is what you will see. - We have a strong resistance zone sitting just above the breakout level. - The price took a strong rejection from the exact resistance zone. Also, Observe the volatile consolidation zone that lasted almost 2 Years. That volatile zone may not be passed through in one instant. What we investors do is draw conclusions based on partial data and predict the price action that is yet to come. What we fail to do is observe the previous price action in its entirety. Does that mean that GAIL will not rise in value, Absolutely not. It just means that the uncertainty it has on the charts for a mere 10% gain ( breakout to ATH Distance) is super high. The market is full of opportunities. Why invest in something that already has a foreseeable red flag? If you liked the read, Would you give us a boost and a follow for our efforts? Have Requests, Questions, or Suggestions? Let us know in the comments below.👇 ⚠️Disclaimer: We are not registered advisors. The views expressed here are merely personal opinions. Irrespective of the language used, Nothing mentioned here should be considered as advice or recommendation. Please consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Like everybody else, we too can be wrong at times ✌🏻
NSE:GAILEducation
by TheChartereds
16
Profitable Triangle Trading Strategy Explained Descending triangle formation is a classic reversal pattern . It signifies the weakness of buyers in a bullish trend and bearish accumulation . In this article, I will teach you how to trade descending triangle pattern. I will explain how to identify the pattern properly and share my trading strategy. ⭐️ The pattern has a very peculiar price action structure : 1. Trading in a bullish trend, the price sets a higher high and retraces setting a higher low . 2. Then the market starts growing again but does not manage to set a new high, setting a lower high instead. 3. Then the price drops again perfectly respecting the level of the last higher low, setting an equal low . 4. After that, one more bullish movement and one more consequent lower high , bearish move, and equal low . Based on the last three highs , a trend line can be drawn. Based on the equal lows , a horizontal neckline is spotted. ❗What is peculiar about such price action is the fact that a set of lower highs signifies a weakening bullish momentum : fewer and fewer buyers are willing to buy from horizontal support based on equal lows. 🔔 Such price action is called a bearish accumulation . Once the pattern is formed it is still not a trend reversal signal though. Remember that the price may set many lower highs and equal lows within the pattern. The trigger that is applied to confirm a trend reversal is a bearish breakout of the neckline of the pattern. 📉Then a short position can be opened. For conservative trading, a retest entry is suggested. Safest stop is lying at least above the level of the last lower high. However, in case the levels of the lower highs are almost equal it is highly recommendable to set a stop loss above them all. 🎯For targets look for the closest strong structure support. Below, you can see the example of a descending triangle trade that I took on NZDCAD pair. After I spotted the formation of the pattern, I was patiently waiting for a breakout of its neckline. After a breakout, I set a sell limit order on a retest. Stop loss above the last lower high. TP - the closest key support. 90 pips of pure profit made. Learn to identify and trade descending triangle. It is one of the most accurate price action patterns every trader should know.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
Tips and Tricks on How to Trade the Inside Bar Candlestick Tips and Tricks on How to Trade the Inside Bar Candlestick Formation What is an Inside Bar? An Inside Bar is a two-bar price action pattern where the second bar (the inside bar) is completely contained within the high and low range of the first bar (the mother bar). This often signifies a period of consolidation or indecision. Trading the Inside Bar: Breakout Strategy: Look for a strong breakout above the mother bar's high for a long position, or below the mother bar's low for a short position. Volume Confirmation: Increased volume on the breakout candle can strengthen the signal. Stop-Loss Placement: Consider placing your stop-loss at the opposite end of the mother bar. Risk-Reward Ratio: Ensure a favorable risk-reward ratio before entering a trade. False Breakouts: Be aware of false breakouts, especially in ranging markets. Combine with Other Indicators: Use the inside bar in conjunction with other technical analysis tools for improved accuracy. Remember, the inside bar is a powerful tool, but it's not a foolproof strategy. Always practice risk management and consider using it as part of a broader trading plan. #tradingview #insidebar #priceaction #forex #stocks #tradingtips
Education
by Forex_Wealth_Factory
Learn How to Apply Top-Down Multiple Time Frame Analysis In this article, we will discuss how to apply Multiple Time Frame Analysis in trading . I will teach you how to apply different time frames and will share with you some useful tips and example of a real trade that I take with Top-Down Analysis strategy. Firstly, let's briefly define the classification of time frames that we will discuss: There are 3 main categories of time frames: 1️⃣ Higher time frames 2️⃣ Trading time frames 3️⃣ Lower time frames Higher Time Frames Analysis 1️⃣ Higher time frames are used for identification of the market trend and global picture. Weekly and daily time frames belong to this category. The analysis of these time frames is the most important . On these time frames, we make predictions and forecast the future direction of the market with trend analysis and we identify the levels , the areas from where we will trade our predictions with structure analysis . Above is the example of a daily time frame analysis on NZDCAD. We see that the market is trading in a strong bullish trend. I underlined important support and resistance levels. The supports will provide the safest zones to buy the market from anticipating a bullish trend continuation. Trading Time Frames 2️⃣ Trading time frames are the time frames where the positions are opened . The analysis of these time frames initiates only after the market reaches the underlined trading levels, the areas on higher time frames. My trading time frames are 4h/1h. There I am looking for a confirmation of the strength of the structures that I spotted on higher time frames. There are multiple ways to confirm that. My confirmations are the reversal price action patterns. Once the confirmation is spotted, the position is opened. Analyzing the reaction of the price to Support 1 on 1H time frame on NZDCAD pair, I spotted a strong bullish confirmation - a triple bottom formation. A long position is opened on a retest of a broken neckline. Lower Time Frames 3️⃣ Lower time frames are 30/15 minutes charts. Even though these time frames are NOT applied for trading, occasionally they provide some extra clues . Also, these time frames can be applied by riskier traders for opening trading positions before the confirmation is spotted on trading time frames. Before the price broke a neckline of a triple bottom formation on an hourly time frame on NZDCAD, it broke a resistance line of a symmetrical triangle formation on 15 minutes time frame. It was an earlier and riskier confirmation to buy. Learn to apply these 3 categories of time frames in a combination. Start your analysis with the highest time frame and steadily go lower, identifying more and more clues. You will be impressed how efficient that strategy is.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
17
Best Price Action Pattern For Beginners to Start FOREX Trading There are a lot of price action patterns: wedges, channels, flags, cup & handle, etc. If you're just starting out your Forex journey, it's natural to wonder which one to trade and focus on. In this article, I will show you the best price action pattern for beginner s that you need to start forex trading. I will share a complete trading strategy with entry, stop and target, real market examples and useful trading tips. High accuracy and big profits guaranteed. The pattern that we will discuss is a reversal pattern. Depending on the shape of the pattern, it can be applied to predict a bearish or a bullish reversal. Its bearish variation has a very particular shape. It has 4 essential elements that make this pattern so unique: A strong bullish impulse, A pullback and a formation of a higher low, One more bullish impulse with a formation of an equal high, A pullback to the level of the last higher low. Such a pattern will be called a double top pattern. 2 equal highs will be called the tops , the level of the higher low will be called a neckline . Remember that the formation of a double top pattern is not a signal to sell. It is a warning sign. The pattern by itself simply signifies a consolidation and local market equilibrium. Your confirmation will be a breakout of the neckline of the pattern. Its violation is an important sign of strength of the sellers and increases the probabilities that the market will drop. Once you spotted a breakout of a neckline of a double top pattern, the best and the safest entry will be on a retest of a broken neckline. Target level will be based on the closest support. Stop loss will lie above the tops. A bullish variation of a double top pattern is called a double bottom. It is also based on 4 main elements: A strong bearish impulse, A pullback and a formation of a lower high, One more bearish impulse with a formation of an equal low, A pullback to the level of the last lower high. 2 equal lows will be called the bottoms , the level of the lower high will be called a neckline . The formation of a double bottom pattern is not a signal to buy. It is a warning sign. The pattern by itself simply signifies a consolidation and local market equilibrium. Your confirmation will be a breakout of the neckline of the pattern. Once you spotted a breakout of a neckline of a double bottom pattern, the best and the safest entry will be on a retest of a broken neckline. Target level will be based on the closest resistance. Stop loss will lie below the bottoms. Double top & bottom is a classic price action pattern that everyone knows. Being very simple to recognize, its neckline violation provides a very accurate trading signal. Moreover, once you learn to recognize and trade this pattern, it will be very easy for you to master more advanced price action patterns like head and shoulders or triangle. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Education
by VasilyTrader
1
Price Action Fluency As A Second Language: Part TwoPlease watch my previously posted part one video to grasp the fundamentals. Now, let's dive into part two. Price action fluency involves more than just technical knowledge—it requires a deep understanding of your psychological behavioral responses. Your brain will have it as its prime objective to avoid pain. It will send signals to the eyes to ignore setups that don't perfectly align. Your eyes will only see what they want to see. It is essential to train your eyes to recognize every failed setup. To observe every detail of each area, and identify every possible entry point for both directions. Leave no aspect overlooked. The goal is for your brain to understand every nuance of price action intuitively and objectively. Just like when you read a book in a language you're fluent in, your brain doesn’t pause at every letter to decipher vowels, consonants, word meanings, or sentence structures. Instead, it processes a vast amount of information naturally and seamlessly. It doesn't skip letters or words out of fear; it treats every part of the language equally and objectively. Objectivity is purity. Objectivity is clarity. Objectivity is mastery.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDEducation
by EsotericTrading
1
How to pick trades in different market conditionsIn the video I look at two different markets and the resultant setups which yielded the prime trades. The two markets had to be approached in different ways, especially early in the session. I look through the price action on the DOW and then the Nasdaq. The DOW proved to be more clear cut and a trend style approach while the Nasdaq was very choppy and warranted a range or reversion style approach to the trades. Still, both were tradable and produced some good scalps although the action had to be recognised early. ANY QUESTIONS, JUST LEAVE IN THE COMMENTS !! ** If you like the content then take a look at the profile to get more ideas and learning material ** ** Any Comments and likes are greatly appreciated **
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Education
by TradeTheStructure
2
Using Multi-Timeframe analysis for a major WinnerMulti-timeframe analysis is a key techniques for prepping a market prior to a trading session. The first thing to do before trading is to understand the major moves and longer term price action. This enables us to get on the right side of a sessions move and avoid a lot of the chop. We take a look at the DOW from the previous trading session and talk through the 30 min timeframe and why it was so important for the 500 pt rally into the close. I talk through the key price action, the trap of shorts before the big move up and why we needed to be on the long side of the action. ANY QUESTIONS, JUST LEAVE IN THE COMMENTS !! ** If you like the content then take a look at the profile to get more ideas and learning material ** ** Any Comments and likes are greatly appreciated **
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Education
by TradeTheStructure
The ONLY Strategy You Need to Identify The Market Trend In this article, we will discuss a proven price action based way to identify the market trend . ❗️And let me note, before we start, that no matter what strategy do you use in your trading, you should always know where the market is going and what is the current trend . Your judgement should be based on strict and objective rules that proved its accuracy. There are a lot of ways to identify the market trend. One of the simplest and efficient ones is price action based method . This method relies on impulse legs . The market never goes just straight up or down, the price action always has a zigzag shape with a set of impulses and retracements. The impulse leg is a strong directional movement , while the retracement is the correctional movement within the boundaries of the impulse. UPTREND 📈The market is trading in a bullish trend if 3 conditions are met: 1️⃣the price forms an initial bullish impulse , 2️⃣ retraces , setting a higher low , 3️⃣then starts growing again and sets a new high with the second bullish impulse . Once these 3 conditions are met, we consider the market to be bullish, and we expect a bullish continuation in such a manner. Take a look at a price action on USDCAD. According to the trend-analysis rules, the pair is trading in a bullish trend. DOWNTREND 📉The market is trading in a bearish trend if 3 following conditions are met: 1️⃣the price forms an initial bearish impulse , 2️⃣ retraces , setting a lower high , 3️⃣then drops lower and sets a new low with the second bearish impulse . Once these 3 conditions are met, we consider the market to be bearish, and we expect a bearish trend continuation. According to the rules, NZDUSD is trading in a bearish trend on the chart above. CONSOLIDATION ➖The third state of the market is called consolidation . The market is trading in a consolidation if the conditions for bullish or bearish trend are not met . The price chaotically forms bullish and bearish impulses, usually trading within the range . Above is the example of a sideways, consolidating market, where the price sets equal or almost equal highs and lows and conditions for bullish/bearish trend are not met. Knowing the current trend, one always knows whether a current trading position is trend-following or counter trend, or it is a sideways consolidation trade. Learn these simple rules and try to identify the market trend with them.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
Bitcoin: How to Forecast the End of a Trend.The advance from Dec 2018 seems to be tracing an impulse pattern. Wave 1 is an impulse, wave 2 is a zigzag which neatly predicts flat wave 4 by guideline of alternation. The fifth wave appears to be tracing an impulse as well; an extension. It's probable that two minute degrees have reached completion at this stage and the market appears to be tracing out the third wave. So how do you forecast the target for wave 5? One way is to use an Elliott wave channel. Connect the end of wave 2 and 4. Draw a parallel line along the top of wave 3 to project wave 5 target. It is quite common for wave 5 to end upon reaching the upper boundary line of the channel In some cases, when wave 3 is uncommonly strong, almost vertical. Draw a parallel line using the top of wave 1 instead of wave 3. From experience, it's quite advantageous to draw the two upper boundary lines.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Aquanet_Market_Forecast
Trade Like a Sniper - Episode 4 - XAGUSD - (10th May 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions. A couple of things to note: - I cannot see news events. - I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range. - I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks In this session I will be analyzing XAGUSD, starting from the Monthly chart. - R2F
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDEducation
by Road_2_Funded
High Volume Times to Trade / Part 1 🔣Hello traders welcome back to another Concept video. In this video, we detail some of the best times to trade the Eur/Usd Currency pair. This happens to be at Session opens. We go through the 3 Session opens and walkthrough examples of increasing volume ( Large candles). Session opens can provide a great catalyst for 1) a continuation of momentum of the preceding trend or 2) a dramatic reversal. The Euro and the U.S. Dollar are not open during the Asian session and so the candles are much smaller and the average volatility is much less. However, the same concept applies regarding the former.
Education
by ShrewdCatfx
11
Top 4 Price Action Signals For Beginners. Best Trading Entries I will reveal 4 accurate price action signals that even a newbie trader will manage to easily recognize. Watch carefully because these signals alone will help you to make a lot of money trading Forex, Gold or any other financial market. Change of Character Change of character is a strong signal that indicates a trend violation and a highly probable market reversal. In a bearish trend, the change of character will be a bullish violation of the level of the last lower high. Check how the change of character accurately indicated a bullish reversal on EURJPY pair. In a bullish trend, a bearish violation of the level of the last higher low will signify a change of character and a highly probable bearish reversal. Bearish violation of the last higher low level and a change of character on USDJPY gave a perfect bearish signal. Breakout of Consolidation No matter what time frame you trader, you probably noticed that quite often the markets become weak and start consolidating . Most of the time, the prices tend to consolidate within horizontal ranges. Breakout of one of the boundaries of the range can give you a strong trading signal. Check how the price acted on GBPCHF. The breakout of the support/resistance of the range always gave an accurate signal, no matter what was the preceding direction of the market. Trend Line Breakout of a Pattern There are a lot of trend line based bullish and bearish price action patterns: the ranges, the wedges, the triangles, the channels. What unites these patterns is that the violation of the trend line of the pattern gives a strong trading signal. A bullish breakout of a resistance line of a falling wedge, a bullish flag and a symmetrical triangle will give us a strong bullish signal. Just look how EURUSD bounced after a bullish breakout of a resistance line of a falling wedge pattern. While a bearish breakout of a support line of a rising wedge, a bearish flag or a symmetrical triangle will indicate a highly probable bearish continuation Here is how a bearish breakout of the support of a symmetrical triangle formation helped me to predict a bearish movement on Gold. Neckline breakout of a horizontal pattern There are a lot of different price action patterns. One element that unites many of them is the so-called horizontal neckline. In bearish price action patterns like double top, head and shoulders, descending triangle, triple top, etc. a horizontal neckline represents a support from where buyers are placing their orders. Bearish violation of such a neckline will be considered to be an important sign of strength of the sellers and a strong bearish signal. In bullish price action patterns like double bottom, inverted head and shoulders pattern, ascending triangle, cup & handle, etc. a horizontal neckline represents a resistance where sellers a placing their orders. Its bullish violation will a strong bullish signal. Below is a perfect example how a bullish breakout of a neckline of an inverted head and shoulders pattern on Bitcoin triggered a strong bullish rally. Here is how a breakout of a neckline of a double top on USDCAD confirmed an initiation of a bearish correctional movement. The most important thing about these price action signals is that it is very simple to recognize them. You should learn the basic price action rules and a couple of classic price action patterns, it will be more than enough for you to identify confirmed bullish and bearish reversals on any time frame and any trading instrument. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
7
Let's Talk Liquidity! ⚒️At first, Liquidity may seem like an abstract and confusing concept reserved for only those Finance nerds and geeks to tackle. Turns out it's really not too sophisticated after all and can be though of in terms of Fomo. Fomo if you are not aware already is simply a concept related to chasing the market because of a Fear of missing out. Any action out of fear is typically not the best choice. In trading, this is especially true. Liquidity is what the market needs prior to a big move. Liquidity doesn't necessarily mean that the market needs to pin an extreme low or high from the previous session. Liquidity is also gathered when the market ranges/consolidates for awhile. If you go back and backtest, you will observe that preceding a large move, the market usually consolidates first. Liquidity also dries up during Asian session. You can observe that the volatility is much smaller than London/Ny session as the market moves alot less # of pips. Liquidity dries up prior to news annoucnemnts becuase of uncertainty obviously. This is the very reason why the market moves so much during news is because of lower participation from larger market participants, therefore an increased chance of wild and random price movements. This is explained more in depth in this concept video, Let's talk Liquidity.
Education
by ShrewdCatfx
The Spectrum of Price Action: Extreme Trends to Extreme Trading Whenever anyone looks at a chart, she will see areas where the market is moving diagonally and other areas where the market is moving sideways and not covering many points. The market can exhibit a spectrum of price behavior from an extreme trend where almost every tick is higher or lower than the last to an extreme trading range where every one- or two-tick up move is followed by a one- or two-tick down move and vice versa. Only rarely will the market exist in either of these extreme states, and when it does, it does so only briefly, but the market often trends for a protracted time with only small pullbacks and it often moves up and down in a narrow range for hours. Trends create a sense of certainty and urgency, and trading ranges leave traders feeling confused about where the market will go next. All trends contain smaller trading ranges, and all trading ranges contain smaller trends. Also, most trends are just parts of trading ranges on higher time frame (HTF) charts, and most trading ranges are parts of trends on HTF charts. Even the stock market crashes of 1987 and 2009 were just pullbacks to the monthly bull trend line. The following chapters are largely arranged along the spectrum from the strongest trends to the tightest trading ranges, and then deal with pullbacks, which are transitions from trends to trading ranges, and breakouts, which are transitions from trading ranges to trends. An important point to remember is that the market constantly exhibits inertia and tends to continue to do what is has just been doing. If it is in a trend, most attempts to reverse it will fail. If it is in a trading range, most attempts to break out into a trend will fail.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by RezaBayat
High Volume Times to Trade / Part 2 🔢Hello Traders welcome back to another concept video. This is the second video in our series -- High Volume Times to Trade -- We talk about 1) 4Hr Candle Opens/Closes 2) New York Stock Exchnage Open 3) London Close Scalping/Intra-day trading during these times, in my experience, can provide unique opportunities to profit on Eur/Usd. Similar to Part 1 of our series, these additional times to trade can provide that extra volume for 1) a nice continuation of the preceding trend 2) a short-term reversal of the preceding trend and 3) act as a catalyst for the beginning of a higher timeframe trend
Education
by ShrewdCatfx
Using Multi-timeframe analysis to make better trading decisionsTrading on multiple timeframes can significantly improve your risk-reward ratio, regardless of what TA technique, you are using. Let’s look at the recent example (SPY ETF) Third week of February started with a strong sell-off (Monday-Tuesday 13th). Price retraced >50% of the previous move, signaling potential trend reversal. At this point market Bears started scouting for daily low high to enter short trade. They received signal on Friday 16th when price broke previous day low. A short trader, who trades only daily chart, would enter this trade at Friday close with stop-loss slightly above daily high and 1st profit target near Tuesday low. This setup provides a decent risk-reward ration >2. There is also a chance that previous low will be broken and price will fall even further, adding to profit. So taking this trade makes a lot of sense. On the main graph to this post you can see how it developed. Price has not reached our profit target, reversed and made new high. Trade got stopped-out. Even if trader was using trailing stop (stop moved slightly above each new day high) this would not have saved him from huge overnight price jump Could have the trader done better? Yes, if he had zoomed into lower timeframe and monitored price action there. Here is what we can see on the 15m chart. (boxes show hourly candles, color coding matches hourly wave direction, you can read about how waves are constructed here ) Bearish reversal pattern shaped on Thursday- Friday. It is not an ideal triple top but there was a clear weakening of upthrust. Also, on Friday morning price broke previous day low, a sign of an increased bearish strength. Basically, at 21.30 (UTC+1) short trader already had enough evidence to enter trade. He could have done it w/o waiting for day closure. This would have already been a better entrance than in the first scenario. After entering the trade, trader could start monitoring for continuation. Tuesday was clearly bearish but on Wednesday there were multiple signs of shift of control. Firstly, price was able to set hourly higher low. Secondly, bearish wave was progressing very slowly. Finally, there was a 15 m equilibrium (end of Wednesday RTH) that resolved convincingly bullish. At this point a reasonable trader should have closed his trade without hesitation. This would not be a great trade still, but it will be a profitable one, with risk-reward 1.7 . It is nearly impossible to achieve same results looking just on the daily chart. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advices, just sharing my thoughts
AMEX:SPYEducation
by hermes_trisme
Getting Paid? With the USD/TRY Carry Trade?The USD/TRY has one of the highest Roll Over Interest out there should you choose to take on this highly volatile pair. It isn't so much that it is volatile, it has to do more with price just moves one direction, and that is up. The way we want to go is down (short) or at least sideways (ranging). Why is this interesting? It is because the Rollover Interest for going short stands at a whopping annualized rate of 28.94%. With 1:4 Margin Requirement for trading a standard lot on the TRY (based off the broker I use), $25,000 could earn me $28,940 yearly, which would be a staggering 115% return at the end of the year. Compounded, I would be a multimillionaire in no time, Buying up yachts, private jets, gourmet food, luxury cars, a pony that shoots lasers, Space X Starship, and countless other items. But hold up, is there a downside or something that makes this too good to be true? Yes, there is price movement as well as changes in interest rates as well as capital in the account. Having only $25,000 in the account, going full throttle and placing one huge position is sure to activate a margin call within seconds (as price can move thousands of pips against you quickly) and/or cause you to lose more than you put in. Now, we don't want that. You would need to have at least double the amount in the account in order to allow for price movement. The return would be halved, but making over 50% yearly isn't too bad either, is it? With price movement, the USD/TRY (I just call it the TRY), price moved higher over 57,000 pips in 2022, and over 100,000 pips in 2023; that is $18,240 and $32,000 respectively. Interest have just reached 45%, so things definitely would not have been good. Now, with funds in your account, not to many of us have $25,000 lying around to utilize in the markets, nor do we want to just tie up $25,000 into something really risky. Yet if used correctly and price does stabilize, then the TRY carry trade could payout (similar to the EUR/HUF). What could be done to reduce the risk? For starters, position sizing. Don't use the full force of your account and go "YOLO." Manage expectations. With a $25,000 account size, only getting into a position at around $3,750 (which is about 15% of the account used and a 15k position), would be around $3,650 return, which would be about a 14.6% return (still not bad. How many people can do this). If things go sour and price does move up at the end the year by 100,000 pips against you ($0.05 move per pip), that would be -$5,000 reduced to $1,350 because of the gained rollover interest (which would be only a 5% hit to your account instead of 20%). Putting some hedges in could also reduce some of the risk. Additionally, research and analysis, this could push you to make a more informative speculation on if getting into the pair is a good idea. Furthermore, to really ensure you don't lose any money, is to not get into the pair at all. For myself, I am utilizing around 41% of my Forex account in this pair, about 14% of my overall accounts. There are hedges in place to reduce the impact of price moving against me as well as my position being small enough to not cause any traumatic moves, even if price moves 100,000 pips against me (of course don't want that to happen). The decision is also made to stay in this pair for the long term or until there is some major changes. There is additional funds in reserves if needed, if things don't go well, in order to put another plan into play to get out of my positions in an orderly fashion. You all have some great trading out there.
Education
by DollarSaenz
2