EURCAD - Dynamically exiting a trade like a proIn this video I discuss, using a recent live trade, how dynamically managing trades is superior to the "set it and forget it" approach to stop loss and profit taking levels.
Priceaction
How Do Identify The Strong Support/Resistance Areas!? Here is an example from a live action! You can see the green box we don't have a candle close inside this area at the moment!
So, that means we have a very strong area what we dealing right now! Up and down, strong candles smash this with a full break below and full break above! This "full candle breaks" means that we need a very strong power from sellers/buyers to break this and what we get if we see some powerful volume - we see those levels get smashed! And those bounces are just a weak try to go through this level - the buyers try to push the price up but sellers react quickly and we are back below the green box!
So hopefully this was helpful and now You can identify the strong levels better!
Don't forget to SHARE this, hit the LIKE and the FOLLOW button if you feel this topic deserves it!
That's the best way to support me and help to push this analysis to other users.
Best regards!
Bitcoin could have a near-death experience driven by FOMOIn this video I argue that there could be a limited price reversal on Bitcoin.
This is about people who missed out before the big pump, thinking or fearing that they don't want to miss out the 'next time around'.
So that lot pre-October 2017, are likely to jump in over the next few days or weeks. This is human nature.
Caution: I predict nothing! I'm doing something different. I'm looking at the psychology of markets and some reversal possibilities. But if price goes north it's about following a reversal trend for as far as it will go.
Bitcoin How To Identify The Trend & When To Go LongHow to identify when you should be buying & going long & when you should be selling if you want to play the trends effectively, especially if your a passive investor this particularly applies to you.
This is a somewhat simple but very powerful tool to know about how to identify the trend your in, do you know what trend your in currently?
Rule of thumb for passive investors to identify when to buy and go long is by using the 200 & 50 day moving average, I go into detail here exactly why you should learn this.
Using the 200 & 50 day moving average you can identify when you are in a bull market & a bear market also when a trend is about to change & time to take profits off the table or buy to go long.
Rule of thumb when the 50 day moving average crosses above the 200 day moving average, and when the candles are above the 50 day moving average, this is a sign that the trend has changed & is going up this is known as a golden cross & a good time to buy, and when the 50 day moving average crosses below the 200 day moving average that is a sign that the bull market trend is over and is a sign to sell & take profits, also known as a death cross.
There can be times when the 50 day MA can move above then shoot down again such as 2014 on the bitcoin chart, however if you sold again when it crossed back you would have been thankful weeks later.
you can see the golden cross in 2012 that lead to a 2 year bull run, then in 2014 a death cross that lead to a long bear market then In October 2015 bitcoins 50 MA Crossed above the 200 MA golden crossed to signal the start of a long bull run.
And recently in 2018 we had a death cross, that signaled the end of the bull market for now.
These are simple but effective tools to use, if all you did was place your investments by buying when we golden crossed and selling when we death cross, you would be doing pretty well for yourself since the start of bitcoin.
Follow for more updates
Postmortem - Managing losing trades like a proIn this video I use the recent losing gold trade to talk about how to manage trades like a pro. You do this using 3 main principles 1)Risk small amounts of capital, 2)Don't over-trade, 3)Don't ignore counter-position price action.
EURUSD – Will Favour Wait for a SHORT to form !A: SUMMARY – Will Position for a SHORT !!.
>Month Chart in Downward Channel..
>WEEKLY Chart – FAVOUR a Breakdown of Channel Line
1-WOULD Watch EURUSD Rise up to FIBS 38.2% (1.20503)
OR FIBS 50% to FIBS 61.8% ( 1.21190 to 1.21877).
DAY CHART :
B: This Coming WEEK Analysis: - WAIT for A SHORT Position
1- H4/H1 entry around ZONE 1.20503 (FIBS 38.2%) OR 1.21190 to 1.21877 (FIBS 50% to 61.8%)
2- WATCH for CANDLE Signal / Lower High Exhaustion Candle
3- PREPARE SHORT !!
CHEERS .. Stay Nimble-TRADE SAFE !!
Let The MARKET DO Its Work-Watch -Stay NIMBLE !!
A nice bit of price action - how I assess itIn this video I explain how I look at some price action. I hope it is of some use to new traders especially. I'll say no more in words here.
Best wishes to all new traders.
Price Action Lesson 6: Shooting Star Candlestick Pattern Def.Shooting Star Candlestick Pattern Definition:
When the price highly increases during a day, but decreases to what it was at the beginning of the day or even lower, a considerable bearish retracement is occurred.
The candlestick of this price action in the daily time frame is a Shooting Star.
The Shooting Star in the daily time frame is a very strong signal for the possibility of more decrease in price during next days.
Example: The chart shows the price of Gold in the time frame of 30 minutes. On Sep 08, 2017 the price significantly increased from 1348.80 to 1357.53, then it decreased more, and at the end of the day to it was closed at 1346.07.
The corresponding Shooting Star candlestick of this price movement in the daily time frame is also drawn on the chart to better describe the concept.
Price Action Lesson 7: Conditions of a Perfect Shooting StarConditions of a Perfect Shooting Star:
Body is short.
The height of the candlestick (the difference between high and low price) is tall enough and it's more than the Daily ATR(264). The taller the Candlestick is, the stronger the Shooting Star.
The upper shadow (also known as upper wick or tail is the distance between the high price and the close or open price, whichever is higher) should be very tall, over than 75 percent of the Daily ATR(264) is better.
The lower shadow (also called bottom wick or tail is the distance between the low price and the close or open price, whichever is lower) is nonexistent or very short. It should be less than 25 percent of the Daily ATR(264).
The Shooting Star with the bearish body is stronger than the one with the bullish body.
- The picture shows a perfect Shooting Star candlestick .
As seen, the height of the candlestick is tall, but the body is very short. Also, the upper shadow is very tall and the lower shadow is very short.
The close price is lower than open price, therefore the body of this Shooting Star is bearish , and the strength is very high.
Price Action Lesson 5: Weak Hammer (Example)Weak Hammer (Example):
The chart shows the price of Bitcoin vs. US Dollar. In 02/02/2018, as it says, buyers couldn't raise the price above the day open price, the D1 candle seems a Hammer with bearish body. So the final result wasn't clear and the next day, sellers could pullback the price. (Consider the red thick arrow)
The Support Line: EP2 -- Price Action & Naked Charts!Howdy Yall!
Today on The Support Line we are going to walk through Price Action, what it means, and how to find a trend using nothing but the price action. Furthermore its going to help us keep our charts clean, and can help us remove some silly indicators which we may not need! Whoa!
Remember, if you click the share button towards the top right of this write-up you can choose "Make it Mine" and look at this chart in your own window, and you'll be able to edit it, and use the "camera" button to post it back here in the comments section... to ask questions, or ask for more advice. That is a great feature -- and I can't wait for one of you to use it! (Hint!)
The Support Line: EP1 -- Scales: Chart 1This is the chart from our first episode of The Support Line! If you choose the Share button to the bottom right of the chart above (up and to the right of this writeup) you can click share and choose "Make it Mine" which will allow you to use THIS chart, and post it back on the video. You can work with us on some of this and accelerate your learning by following along.
Thanks for stopping by and keep your pencil out!
The Support Line: EP1 -- Scales Hello traders, investors, and the curious alike! This is my new series called The Support Line . To get the chart from any of The Support Line's episodes, you can scroll down to "related ideas" below the write-up and select the episode # along with its chart. It will always be there! This gives you the ability ot share it back here, and our community can help and work with you! Here we will talk about some of the more fundamental points of technical analysis, helping us become better chartists. Some of our advanced users may be able to brush up on information here, and perhaps fill in gaps of things they didn't know. Our newer users should expect to build a better base, and have a good foundation for more advanced concepts later.
Please help me out with suggestions for what our next talk should be about!! Leave me a note in the comments, and we'll make sure we get to it as soon as possible! Thanks !
Lets get our pencils out and get to work!
Price Action Lesson 4: Weak hammerWeak hammer:
For having successful and steady transactions, Simple detection of market patterns is not enough. But with a deeper look, we should calculate the success possibility of each pattern. One of the determining power Parameters of hammer stick is about Descending or ascending that the body can be. Thus, if the body of hammer is ascending, Possibility of starting an ascendant wave is very high.
The opening price of the day, is very important. This price - is the previous day's closing price, in fact it is the price that they had a war at in previous day where buyers and sellers come to equilibrium. So on the day that the Hammer is forming. If buyers can raise prices to the point of closing price of yesterday, and by the end of the day, they keep the price at the top of it, they will be the winners of the war. If we can raise the price above yesterday's closing price, they are not conclusive winners of today’s war, and this war will continue for the next few days.
Thus, if the body of hammer is ascending, Possibility of the beginning Ascending wave is very high. But if the body of hammer is Descending, Possibility of the beginning Ascending wave is less. In this case, it is said a weak hammer has made.
- The picture shows a hammer candlestick with descending body.
. As what can be seen, candle’s height is tall, but it has very short body height. Also Lower Shadow is long, and the upper shadow is very short.
. As regards the Closing Price of market is under its Opening Price, therefore the body of this hammer is Descending, and the power is very low. Possibility of the beginning ascending wave is less.
Price Action Lesson 3: Hammer, The first sign of beginning ...Hammer, The first sign of the beginning Ascending wave:
Hammer shows that the war between buyers and sellers, at the beginning of the day sellers could create significant reduction in price, with their high investments. But when the price had come to the lowest extent of it, many of buyers have entered with more investments than sellers. And again they could increase the price close to what it was at the beginning of the day or may even more. And at the war that was between buyers and sellers, the buyers have been the winners of the day, and the market is largely in control of them. Thus, the possibility of further price increases in the coming days is enormous.
example: picture Shows, currency pair of EUR/USD -0.31% in a 30 minutes time frame.
At the beginning, by increasing investments of sellers, the price became to 1.16886 But in this range with the arrival of large buyers to the market and overcome to turnover of shopping on sales transactions, the price increased again. Sellers could increase the selling price due to the amount of demand from buyers. The starting price is may be at 1.17495 but it increased by the end of the day to 1.17578.
As what can be seen, after forming Hammer , an Ascending wave started and the Price have increased more.
Price Action Lesson 2: Conditions of a Perfect Hammer Conditions of a Perfect Hammer:
. Body height must be short.
. The total height of the candle must be taller than the Daily ATR-264. The taller the candle is, the stronger the Hammer is.
. The lower shadow’s length should be very tall. It is better to be over 75 percent of the Daily ATR-264.
. The upper shadow does not exist, or if it does, it is very small. It shouldn't be more than 25 percent of the Daily ATR-264.
. The hammer that has an ascending body is stronger than the one which has a descending body.
Hammer Candlestick Pattern DefinitionHammer Candle Stick Definition
If there was a large drop in price in the middle of the day, but before the day ended it increased to what it was at the beginning of the day and even more, a significant upward return occurred. The candlestick of this change (move) will be a Hammer in a daily time frame. A Hammer formation on the daily time frame is a very strong indication for probability of increasing price in next days.
Example: The picture shows currency pair of EUR/USD in a 30 minute time frame. On Ausust 09, 2017 the price significantly decreased from 1.17495 to 1.16886 or even lower. But after that, it increased rapidly at the end of the day to 1.17578 and then closed.
Also in this picture - for better understanding - the Hammer Candlestick in the daily time frame - in the result of changes in a day - is drawn.
Trading Record - Risk Units Exercise This is an observation with educational purposes, for myself and for the people who might find it useful.
First of all, the results that are shown here are made from the last 13 trades that were published and TRIGGERED, here in the website. Each one of those trades are measure in terms of risk to reward, in other words terms of risk units.
Remember when you are going to place a trade you must have clear what % of your account you are going to risk, after you have that number, depending on the place from your entry to your of stop loss level you define your position size in order to match your risk amount
Below you can find in detail each one of the trades, is important that you see the description of each idea in order to see how was the trade management in each case
Trade 1
Trade 2
Trade 3
Trade 4
Trade 5
Trade 6
Trade 7
Trade 8
Trade 9
Trade 10
Trade 11
Trade 12
Trade 13
To Indicator or Not To Indicator? - Eduseries Week 2"I trade like I bath" - the words of a self-created guru trader who wanted to convince me to join his "Premium Group" a while back.
Although by his very nature the gentleman was a scammer and made more money through "teaching", those words lead me on a path which to a greater level of certainty in my own trading and analysis. (By the time we had that interaction I had spent 100s of hours trying to decode the secret "code" and logic in the markets through the use of countless mathematical indicators.)
It is with that experience that I add to the Indicator vs naked chart debate .
Firstly I believe that majority of strategies work( indicator or no indicator) and I have found that human beings have certain behavioral traits that if worked on correctly, will result in success. Dont get me wrong, yes there is propaganda and some illogical methods of analysis and yes there are some people who are not meant to be traders, but I have found that the reason 90% of traders I have met have changed their strategies is due to lack of understanding, psychological factors etc. ("We'll talk about this some other time") but NOT whether the method works or not.
Back to topic,does trading with or without an indicator give anyone anyone an advantage?
1. I have found that mathematical indicators have their flaws in that they lag price action and are not effective as market timing tools.
However, I believe and I have discovered that if used as a confirmation tools for a proper price action trading plan (Notice I didn't say candlestick patterns, more on this later), they can give a trader an edge so to speak and give an additional level of confidence in trade selection if ofcourse the indicator is being interpreted in the manner originally intended.
2. I have also found that price action in itself, not knowing different candlestick patterns or chart patterns but a proper understanding of the ebb and flow of the market and the psychology of majority of traders is enough on its own. Simply understanding why the price of something is going up and down i (I refer you to your high school economics textbook for this) coupled with the ability to leave your emotions at the door is enough to make money consistently. More and more traders don't realise that the key to understanding price movement is in exactly the manner in which they buy groceries (I promise to write about this later too :)).
What's the conclusion?
A proper understanding of price action before using indicators is essential for the success of any trader, without an understanding of price the trader is lead into believing that indicators can predict price action while the indicator in itself is just a mathematical formula based on previous data which in my opinion is the quickest way to burn through your capital.
I recommend anyone struggling with understanding the business of trading to take a step back; (refer to the very first thing taught in econ101 and learn how the market auction system works (many books exist
Those who call themselves "diehards" and are adamant that indicators are the best tools to have and one can use them with only an understanding of price action (NOT candlesticks); I have one request, please remove the candles off your charts and send me your analysis based on your magic 8ball indicator stochastic rainbow MACD TDI EMA strategy.
My Name is Mutondi , price action trader; I sometimes use an indicator (MA) but I can do just fine W/O.
USD / JPY Overal Consensus Hello Traders, Been long on UJ for some time now. Price has been respecting my Major Quarter zones. I expect for there to be a consolidation period around the 78.6 Fib. At this point we could expect to see one of two things, the price could make a move to the downside and test our 61.8 zone or continue bullish until 115.000. If your technical, fundamental, and sentimental analysis align with mine make sure to hit the like button. Also, feel free to drop any comments or questions below and I'll make sure to get back to you as soon as possible. Trade with caution.
[Tips] High-Probability Trade with Fibonacci Retracement
How To Use Fibonacci Retracement to find High-Probability Trade Setup
Brief Definition:
Fibonacci retracement is a very popular tool among technical traders and is based on the key numbers identified by mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci in the thirteenth century.
In technical analysis, Fibonacci retracement is created by taking two extreme points (usually a major High and Low) on a chart and dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%, and 100%.
Once these levels are identified, horizontal lines are drawn and used to identify possible support and resistance levels.
These ratios seem to play an important role in the financial market and can be used to determine critical points that cause price to reverse. The direction of the prior trend is likely to continue once the price has retraced to one of the ratios listed above.
Tips for Effective Setup:
1. Analyze the general overview (big picture) of price movement to the current trend.
In the above example, blue vertical line divides chart into 2 section, Downtrend on the left and Uptrend on the right.
We can use MA200 to identify the overall trend.
2. Look at the price movement carefully and then draw Fibo Ret from the extreme pivot points.
For Downtrend, drag 100% level from previous High to 0% level at the newly formed Low.
For Uptrend, drag 100% level from previous Low to 0% level at the newly formed High.
3. Pay attention to the price movement to the opposite direction of the general trend.
Wait for any price rejection to the same direction with the general trend at one of the Fibo Ret level.
Entry zone which quite popular are 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% level.
4. Probability of success will increased if price rejection occurs at the confluence of Support and Resistance levels.
ie. confluence of one Fibo Ret level with Support / Resistance area, Trendline, or Chart Pattern.
The point is, more confluences are taking places, probability of success for price rejection at Fibo Ret level is higher.
Few Examples:
Example 1 - 3 for Downtrend case (MA200 sloping down)
Example 4 - 5 for Uptrend case (MA200 sloping up)
1. (Normal Retracement) Price reversed to the opposite direction of the trend and rejected down from around Fibo Ret 50%.
The downtrend continuation after price rejection tend to be normal and not too deep.
2. (Higher Probability Retracement) Price reversed to the opposite direction of the trend and rejected down from the confluence of 2 resistance:
Fibo Ret 23.6% and Resistance Area 110.648-110.771.
The downtrend continuation after price rejection tend to be quite deep.
3. (Highest Probability Retracement) Price reversed to the opposite direction of the trend and rejected down from the confluence of 3 resistance:
Fibo Ret 61.8%, Major Down Trendline (diagonal red line), and Resistance Area 110.275-110.346.
The downtrend continuation after price rejection tend to be very deep.
4. (Higher Probability Retracement) Price reversed to the opposite direction of the trend and rejected up from the confluence of 2 support:
Fibo Ret 38.2% and Support Area 110.648-110.771.
The uptrend continuation after price rejection tend to be quite high.
5. (Normal Retracement) Price reversed to the opposite direction of the trend and rejected up from around Fibo Ret 61.8%.
The uptrend continuation after price rejection tend to be normal and not too high.
Happy Trading...
Price Action 101: Example of the "First Break"...---- SUMMARY ----
This freeze-frame of the USDJPY 15m chart at the end of weekly trading is a near perfect example of a classic Price Action setup in progress...
This setup, according to Bob Volman, is called the "FIRST BREAK".
--- BACKGROUND ----
If you don't know... Bob Volman is a longtime Price Action trader and the author of two Excellent (yet very hard to read) books on the subject...
The "First Break" is one of seven setups detailed in his first book: " Forex Price Action Scalping ".
Although that book relies on tick-based charts, the concepts (and setups) apply to all timeframes.
--- THE SETUP ----
In a nutshell, the conditions of the Fist Break setup are:
#1) A steady and pronounced trend in price (...in this case, a BEARISH trend starting at "Point A") , and
#2) A steady but less-pronounced pullback - usually at a 30-45-degree angle (points B to C).
At this point in the setup (if the markets were open), one should be alert for a sharp break against the ongoing bullish momentum...
According to Bob V., a SIGNAL CANDLE (in this case, a strong bearish candle that closes below its previous candle ) should form at some point.
(NOTE: one should also look out for any doji candles that pre-signal a turn in momentum)
THEN... The ENTRY CANDLE is defined as the next candle that (even if it hasn't closed yet) falls below the signal candle's CLOSE or LOW.
That's where (in this situation) you can enter the market with a SHORT order.
More conservative traders may wait until the Entry candle actually completes (and even wait for another 1-2 bearish candles close) before jumping in...
-------------------------------
PLEASE NOTE: That Mr. Volman himself says that 1st Reversals are relatively rare because they are a sign of very strong momentum.
As such, Bob V. stresses that one should always consider the possibility of a "SECOND BREAK" setup as the true signal to enter the market.
(...Refer to Bob V.'s book for additional details on "Second Break" setup...)
---- ADDITIONAL NOTES ----
In this example, one can see a "tease" reversal that probably trapped a few aggressive scalpers...
Also... Bob stresses the importance of NOT expecting a turnaround until price runs into an established ceiling or floor (i.e. EMA lines or S/R lines)
Lastly... Since this particular setup was 'frozen' over the weekend, one should NOT assume that the strong bearish momentum on Friday will automatically continue on Sunday's opening...
===================
That's It... Now push the button and let's see what happens...!
And always, Trade Mindfully...
- $B -
