The Best Strategy of 2024: Reversal Entry ModelGood morning, today I would like to draw your attention to a model that I am integrating into my analyses for this year. In this model, we define simple structural changes either downwards or upwards, in this context downwards using two BOS. Subsequently, we define the main demand zone where the price retests. After the retest, the price breaks upwards the structure creating a CHOCH, or an internal breakout. Afterwards, the price will move into a lateral phase accumulating a lot of liquidity, and as it is known, as soon as the price absorbs liquidity above or below a range, it then moves in the opposite direction of the filled liquidity. In this case, liquidity is absorbed below in the order block zone and the price moves upwards. I recommend supplementing charts with this model and identifying these setups starting from an H4 timeframe which can be simpler compared to smaller timeframes. Best regards and happy trading to everyone.
Priceaction
The Ultimate Strategy | ChoCh + InducementThis strategy is based on identifying a market structure, which can be bullish or bearish. In this specific case, a bullish structure characterized by rising highs and lows is considered. The expectation is for the market to change direction, creating a shock. Subsequently, the formation of a liquidity block is observed during a market consolidation phase, followed by entering a demand zone where the imbalance dictates, and the response is a downward movement, as anticipated. The target of this movement is defined graphically. Greetings and happy trading to everyone.
High probability setupThis is what I'm going to be looking in the market for the next long term journey, this is a special setup based on patience, strategy and price action, high probabilities and high R:R, works better in high timeframes, we have just wait for the firt confirmation which is:
1. Shift of structure, after watching that we have to look for:
2. A good RESISTANCE/SUPPORT zone where the price is rejecting in Daily of 4H and search for a:
3. Chart pattern which can be a HEAD AND SHOULDERS OR DOUBLE BOTTOM, DOUBLE TOP..., if we have these confirmations, we can look for the last which is:
4. Candlestick pattern: in the shift of the structure which can be an engulfing, an evening/morning star or marubozu, also can be a doji with the wick for our direction
Each one of these confirmations are 22% probabilities for our strategy, after getting all them we can enter the trade, put the stop loss a bit above or below the last structure point and take a 1:3 risk reward and the most important part is:
SET THE TRADE AND FORGET, Allow the price to go where it has to go, don't change the T.P, don't change the S.L, accept the risk of the trade and take a loss if is the case or take a win if the market allows that, and continue with the plan, IT'S IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE A 100% CHANCES, so even if you have all this confirmation, you can lose and you have to ACCEPT IT, for that:
Stick to the RISK MANAGEMENT thinking in percentage, I recommend to use a 1%-2% per trade, and that's all
BE PATIENT AND SMART, THINK IN LONG TERM
Remember: "The market is a mechanism for transferring money from the impatient to the patient"
Perfect ChoCh : Entry + SetupWith this trading model, I aim to share with the community a particularly significant approach that has revolutionized my way of operating in the markets, especially on shorter timeframes such as 1, 5, and 15 minutes. This model involves defining a clear structure before entering the market, specifically a demand zone already present in the market. A price that reaches this zone through a double structural break (BOS) before rallying and creating an internal break (ChoCh) before returning to the demand zone. Subsequently, the price will surpass the previous high, thereby defining a new demand zone. One will then await the price to reach this zone, and once there, enter the market with the aim of reaching the supply zone depicted on the chart.
Unveiling the Power of Supply and Demand Zones in Forex Trading
Unveiling the Power of Supply and Demand Zones in Forex Trading 📈💹
✅ Introduction
=================
In the realm of forex trading, the concept of supply and demand zones holds immense significance as it plays a crucial role in identifying potential market turning points and areas of strong price momentum. Understanding how to pinpoint and interpret these zones can provide traders with valuable insight into market dynamics and facilitate more informed trading decisions. In this article, we will delve into the intricacies of identifying supply and demand zones in forex and explore strategies for using them effectively.
Check this massive demand zone that I spotted on Gold on a daily.
✅ Identifying Supply and Demand Zones
=====================================
Supply zones are areas on a price chart where selling interest exceeds buying interest, leading to a potential downward price movement. On the other hand, demand zones represent areas where buying interest surpasses selling interest, signaling a potential upward price movement. Traders can identify these zones by looking for clusters of price action indicating significant changes in supply and demand dynamics.
Example: A supply zone may be identified as a consolidation area following a downtrend, where price repeatedly fails to break above a certain level, suggesting strong selling pressure.
Example: A demand zone might be found as a support level where price experiences a strong bounce following a downtrend, indicating strong buying interest.
Here is a very significant supply zone on EURGBP.
✅ Trading Strategies Using Supply and Demand Zones
=====================================================
1. Zone Confirmation: Traders can use supply and demand zones as areas of interest for potential trade entries and exits. When the price revisits a previously identified supply or demand zone, traders can look for additional confirmation signals, such as candlestick patterns or confluence with other technical indicators, before entering a trade.
Example: A trader identifies a strong demand zone and waits for a bullish engulfing pattern or a piercing pattern as confirmation before entering a long trade.
2. Zone Breakouts: Breakouts from supply and demand zones can signal strong shifts in market sentiment and potential trend reversals. Traders can monitor these zones for potential breakout opportunities and use them as entry points for trades in the direction of the breakout.
Example: A trader identifies a supply zone and waits for a break below the zone as confirmation to enter a short trade, expecting further downward movement.
Check my supply and demand zones analysis for EURJPY.
✅ Conclusion
================
In conclusion, understanding how to identify and interpret supply and demand zones in forex trading can significantly enhance a trader's ability to analyze price movements and make informed trading decisions. By incorporating supply and demand zones into their analysis, traders can gain valuable insights into market sentiment and potential areas of price reversal or continuation.
Traders can utilize the strategies outlined in this article to effectively integrate supply and demand zones into their trading approach, leading to improved trade timing and potentially more profitable outcomes. Mastering the art of identifying and trading based on supply and demand zones is a valuable skill that can provide traders with a competitive edge in the dynamic world of forex trading. Good luck and happy trading! 📊💰
Best Trading Confirmation. Learn 95% Accurate Entry Signal
I have analyzed 1300 forecasts and signals that I shared on TradingView last year and found 95% accurate trading confirmation.
In this article, we will discuss multiple types of confirmations and their winning rate on Forex, Gold, Indexes, Crypto & Commodities.
First, let me introduce you to the types of analysis that I provided.
1 - Structure based forecast
I have shared more than 55 trading setup with key levels analysis:
Where the price is approaching a key daily horizontal support and resistance.
Here is the example of such a post.
Test of a key horizontal or vertical support/resistance turned out to be a poor trading signal.
Total accuracy of structure based forecasts is 38% .
Please, note that if we consider the market trend in our calculations,
the trend-following structure based setup will be 42% accurate, while a performance of a counter trend setup drops to 35%
2 - Structure breakout based forecast
I analyzed and posted 73 posts with a key structure breakout as a confirmation on a daily.
Above is the example of a such a forecast.
Key levels breakout turned out to be a strong bullish or bearish confirmation with 59% accuracy.
Trend direction did not affect the efficiency of a key structure breakout that much, with a 60% accuracy of a trend following setup versus 57% of counter trend.
3 - Structure based forecast with a single intraday confirmation
I shared more than 500 setups with a test of a key structure on a daily and a single price action based bullish or bearish confirmation on a 4h/1h time frame.
My intraday confirmation is a formation of a price action pattern with a consequent breakout of its neckline/trend line in the projected direction.
Please, check the example of such a signal.
Just a single intraday confirmation dramatically increases the accuracy of a structure based setup.
Average winning rate is 66%.
4 - Structure based forecast with multiple intraday confirmations
I spotted and posted 200+ forecasts with a test of a key structure on a daily and multiple price action based bullish or bearish confirmations on a 4h/1h time frame.
Multiple confirmations imply the formation of multiple price action patterns on 4/1h t.f.
Here is the example of such a setup on EURGBP.
Two or more confirmations on a key structure increase the average winning rate to 72%.
Among multiple confirmations, I found a 95% accurate bearish signal:
The market should be in a bearish trend.
The price should test a key daily structure resistance.
The market should form a rising wedge pattern on a 4h/1h time frames and the highs of the wedge should strictly test the key structure and should not violate them.
After a test of structure, the price should form a bearish price action pattern on the highs of the wedge.
Above is a setup with the best trading confirmation.
A bearish breakout of the neckline of the pattern and a support of the wedge was a 95% accurate trading signal this year.
Of course, there are various confirmations, depending on a trading style. The ones that I shared with you are structure/price action based.
And I am truly impressed by their accuracy.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
5 Steps Smart Money Concept Model5 STEPS SMART MONEY CONCEPT MODEL
Break of Structure (BOS):
Definition: A Break of Structure occurs when the market provides the initial indication that the price is likely to reverse. For example, a new lower low and lower high signal a disrupted market structure, indicating a forthcoming reversal to the downside.
Trading Approach: Traders typically align their trades with the Higher Time Frame (HTF) BOS, especially when the price closes above/below a swing high/low.
Change in Character (CHOCH):
Definition: A CHOCH represents an initial shift that can signal a short- or long-term price reversal. It is considered a reversal pattern, utilized by SMC traders on higher time frames for market direction and on lower time frames for trade opportunities.
Implementation: SMC traders use CHOCHs on various time frames to gauge market direction and identify intraday reversals or reactions to Points of Interest (POIs).
Fair Value Gap (FVG):
Definition: Fair Value Gaps highlight market inefficiencies or imbalances, where buying and selling are not equal. These gaps become magnets for price, resolving the inefficiency as resting orders are filled.
Utilization: Traders use FVG information to target these gaps, identifying potential entry points for long or short positions. Fair Value Gaps are considered valuable Points of Interest (POIs) in price action trading.
ICT Kill Zones Time Asia London New YorkIn the fast-paced world of forex trading, timing is everything. While the forex market operates 24 hours a day, not all hours offer the same trading opportunities. That’s where ICT Kill Zones Times come into play. Forex kill zones are the time when high probability trading setup formed
These strategic time frames can open up a world of possibilities for traders who know how to leverage them. In this post, we’ll explore the concept of ICT Kill Zones ‘ times and how they can lead to high-probability trade setups and potential profits.
The ICT Asian Kill Zone Times: The Dawn of Opportunities
The Asian Kill Zone is the first of the strategic periods in the forex market. It is particularly relevant for traders dealing with the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Japanese yen pairs, as these markets are most active during this time.
What makes the Asian Kill Zone special is its volatility, driven by economic news releases that occur during this session. Traders who keep an eye on these news releases and their impact on the market can make the most of this period.
Main Characteristics of Asian Kill Zone
-During the Asian Kill Zone, traders can often find optimal trade entry patterns, offering potential gains of 15 to 20 pips for scalp trades.
-NZD, and JPY pairs are ideal for this time of the day.
-The Asian Open can sometimes set up an Optimal Trade Entry Pattern that can offer a 15 – 20 pip scalp.
-The Higher frame bias is helpful here – but short-term retracements in either Bull or Bear
-Markets can offer similar OTE Setups.
Asian Kill Zone Time
ICT Asian Kill Zone Times lies in between 8:00 PM Eastern to10:00 PM Eastern
ICT London Kill Zone Time
The ICT London Kill Zone takes center stage during the London trading session, witnessing the highest volume of order execution compared to other sessions. It is an opportune time for those trading the EUR and GBP pairs. Notably, the London Open often presents opportunities for traders to enter positions with the potential for gains ranging from 25 to 50 pips.
Main Characteristics of London Kill Zone
One of the distinctive characteristics of the London Kill Zone is its tendency to create the low of the day in bullish markets and the high of the day in bearish markets.
Time of ICT London Kill Zone
London Kill Zone of ICT lies between 2:00 AM to 5:00 AM Eastern Time
Traders should monitor the key times between 2:00 AM to 5:00 AM New York time to capitalize on the price action during the London session.
The New York Kill Zone Time: The Land of Opportunities
For traders dealing with major pairs coupled with the dollar index, the New York Kill Zone is an essential timeframe to watch.
Similar to other Kill Zones, this period often sets up optimal trade entry patterns, providing potential gains of 20 to 30 pips for scalp trades.
Time of New York Kill Zone
The New York Kill Zone occurs between 8:00 AM to 11:00 AM Eastern Time. This time is favorable for major pairs and benefits from the overlap with the London session, making it a golden opportunity for traders.
New York Kill Zone lies between 8:00 AM to 1:00 AM Eastern Time
The London Close Kill Zone: The Final Countdown
The London Close Kill Zone is a specific time frame that can create continuation points for swings that extend well into New York afternoon hours. It’s the last chance for traders to make their moves before the market closes for the day, making accurate predictions during this period potentially profitable.
Between approximately 8:00 AM to 9:00 AM Eastern Time (adjusted for daylight savings) , traders can find optimal trade entry patterns, offering opportunities for 10 to 20 pips of profit on scalp trades. Monitoring the key times from 10:00 AM to Noon NY time can yield valuable insights during the London Close Kill Zone.
ICT Kill Zone on During Daylight Saving Time (DST)
Now, let’s talk about Daylight Saving Time (DST), which starts on the second Sunday in March and ends on the first Sunday in November. During this period, Eastern Time is shifted one hour ahead to Eastern Daylight Time (EDT), which is UTC-4.
For example, let’s consider April 10th, and the time is 11:30 AM in Eastern Time (ET) during Daylight Saving Time. To convert this to Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), you add 4 hours to the local time:
11:30 AM ET (UTC-4) + 4 hours = 3:30 PM UTC
During Daylight Saving Time, the clocks are adjusted forward by one hour, giving us an extra hour of daylight in the evenings. When Daylight Saving Time ends, we set the clocks back by one hour to return to Eastern Standard Time.
ICT Kill Zone Setting on Trading View
On the TradingView chart, you’ll find the time zone option at the bottom right corner. To set the correct time zone, click on it, and choose “UTC-5” during regular days (Standard Time) and “UTC-4” during daylight saving time, which typically occurs from the second Sunday in March to the first Sunday in November.
ICT Kill Zones Indicator Trading view & MT4
A number of indicator are available on the trading view that automatically highlights the ICT kill zones on your chart.
ICT Kill Zone LuxAlgo is one of the best indicators available on trading view.
To Add ICT Kill Zone indicator you adopt the following steps:
Step1:Click on the indicator icon on top of the trading view
Step2 write LuxAlgo ICT Kill Zone
Understanding and effectively utilizing ICT Kill Zones can significantly enhance a trader’s success in the forex market. Each Kill Zone represents a unique opportunity with its own set of potential gains.
How to identify high quality Supply and Demand zonesSupply and demand zones are powerful tools to find high probability trades. If they are used in the correct context they offer a high win rate and a very controled risk. These are some of the characteristics that high quality zones have:
•When a good zone is being created in real time you will watch that price pushes down/up with aggressive price action and follow through after the basing candle. Heavy volume on the development and candle closing at its highs are also good indicators.
•A high quality supply/demand zone is the one that creates new lows/highs. That means that it was able to push below/above the prior low/high.
•In short time frames, shorter than 1 hour, you would probably find good supply and demand zones to have a continuation of the trend. For example, if a Future is in an uptrend pay attention to the demands that are created in that trend and then when price pulls back to it look at the price action in the zone. Have in mind that in uptrends, demand zones are reliable and supply zones have a much lower probability of working. The opposite scenario happens in downtrends were supply zones are higher probability and demand zones should be avoided.
•In higher time frames, a very strong supply or demand zone could be an area for a change of structure (from an uptrend to a downtrend for example).
•A good indicator of a reliable supply/demand zone is when price pulls back to it and the candle has a strong rejection as it touches the zone, meaning an upper/lower wick is created below/above the zone. volume is developing with no follow through (orders hitting strong ask/bid in the tape) and the candle does not close inside the zone.
•Speed heading into the zone is also relevant, a high speed drop heading in to a demand zone is a good area to trap late sellers.
•If for example FX:EURUSD has a demand zone and TVC:DXY has a supply zone or a resistance level and both are having retracements from their trend, that could be a good opportunity to go long and also if price action gives an extra confirmation. This means that confluence is key for a high probability trade when using supply and demand zones.
• Use the concept of relative strength/weakness when using confluence with other charts.
Example: A 2 hour demand zone in Brent Futures $NYMEX:BZ1!. Notice how the red candle that reaches the zone is a strong one with higher volume and is not able to close inside the zone, It prints a lower wick and closes above it giving the demand zone a good price action confirmation.
Learn Ascending, Decending and Symmetrical Triangles | Powerful
Hey traders,
In this post, we will discuss 3 simple and profitable types of a triangle pattern.
1️⃣ The first type of triangle is called a descending triangle.
It is a reversal price action pattern that quite accurately indicates the exhaustion of a bullish trend.
Setting a new higher high the market retraces and sets a higher low, then bulls start pushing again but are not able to retest a current high and instead the price sets a lower high and drops to the level of the last higher low setting an equal low.
Multiple lower highs compose a horizontal support that is called a neckline.
The price keeps trading in such a manner, setting lower highs and equal lows till the price sets a new lower low.
Most of the time, it gives a very accurate signal of a coming bearish move.
Please, note that a triangle formation by itself does not give an accurate short signal. The trigger that you should wait for is a formation of a new lower low.
Take a look at a descending triangle formation that I spotted on Crude Oil on a 4H time frame. Bearish movement was confirmed after a breakout of the neckline of the pattern.
2️⃣ The second type of triangle is called a symmetrical triangle. It is a classic indecision pattern. It can be formed in a bullish, bearish trend, or sideways market.
The price action starts contracting within a narrowing range, setting lower highs and higher lows.
Based on them, two trend lines can be drawn.
Breakout of one of the trend lines with a quite high probability indicates a future direction of the market.
Above is a great example of a symmetrical triangle.
Bullish breakout of its upper boundary - a falling trend line was a strong bullish confirmation.
3️⃣ The third type of triangle is called an ascending triangle.
It is a reversal price action pattern that quite accurately indicates the exhaustion of a bearish trend.
Setting a new lower low, the market retraces and sets a lower high, then bears start pushing again but are not able to retest a current low and instead the price sets a higher low and bounces to the level of the last lower high setting an equal high.
A sequence of equal highs compose a strong horizontal resistance that is called a neckline.
The price keeps trading in such a manner, setting higher lows and equal highs till the price sets a new higher high.
Most of the time, it gives a very accurate signal of a coming bullish move.
📍Please, note that an ascending triangle formation by itself does not give an accurate long signal. The trigger that you should wait for is a formation of a new higher high.
Ascending triangle formation helped me to accurately predict a bullish reversal on USDJPY. Its neckline breakout was a strong bullish confirmation.
Learn to recognize such triangles and you will see how accurate they are.
Let me know what pattern do you want to learn in the next post?
ORDER BLOCK trading strategyThe order block trading strategy is based on the concept of smart money, focusing on identifying specific zones where institutional traders previously executed their orders. Once we have successfully identified these zones, we patiently wait for the price to revisit these levels.
By using a suitable strategy, we then enter our trades in the anticipated direction.
-What is an Order Block in Forex:
Order blocks are special zones within the market where significant buy or sell orders from major market participants, like institutional traders, have been previously executed.
These order clusters, situated in specific price regions, hold considerable influence over price action, market sentiment, and liquidity.
Order blocks serve as a specialized methodology to determine crucial support and resistance levels, derived from the trading behavior of institutional traders. These levels are subsequently employed as strategic points for initiating or concluding trades.
-Understanding Order Block in Trading:
In Forex or any other market, ict order block represent crucial price levels where we observe significant and aggressive price movements. These levels are characterized by large firms strategically placing their orders, which often results in the market moving forcefully from those points.
To influence the market in a specific direction, smart money or hedge funds execute orders worth billions of dollars at particular price levels. However, not all of their orders are immediately filled. As a result, smart money revisits these levels to execute the pending orders, leading to further movement in the desired direction.
-ICT Order Blocks Definition:
Order blocks can indeed be identified on any time frame, ranging from small time frame like 15m,30 m and m5 to larger time frames like daily or weekly charts.
Order blocks can be classified into two main types: Bullish Order Blocks and Bearish Order Blocks.
1. Bullish Order Block:
A Bullish Order Block is recognized as the last downward candle before the price experiences a significant and aggressive upward movement. It represents a key level where institutional traders placed substantial buy orders, causing the market to rally strongly from that point.
2. Bearish Order Block:
On the other hand, a Bearish Order Block is characterized by the last upward closing candle before the price undergoes a sharp and forceful downward movement. It signifies a critical level where large market participants, such as institutional traders, positioned significant sell orders, resulting in a significant decline in the market.
By identifying and analyzing these Bullish and Bearish Blocks, traders can gain insights into a potential reversal or continuation patterns and utilize them as entry or exit points for their trades.
Trading order blocks go beyond solely identifying the last up or down closing candle. To effectively trade order blocks, it is essential to consider several contextual factors, including:
1. Liquidity Hunt: Market participants, especially institutional traders, may strategically place their orders to trigger stop losses or create a liquidity imbalance. Understanding liquidity patterns and how they can influence price action is crucial.
2. Daily Bias: Evaluating the overall market sentiment and bias for the day is important. This involves considering factors such as news events, economic releases, and geopolitical developments that may impact the market and influence order-block behavior.
3. Interest Rates and Fundamentals: Fundamental factors, including interest rates, economic indicators, and central bank policies, can significantly influence market conditions. Understanding how these factors interact with order blocks can provide valuable insights for trading decisions.
By taking these contextual factors into account, traders can enhance their understanding of order blocks and make more informed trading decisions.
To identify order blocks, price action traders typically examine historical price movements on the chart to locate areas where the market has shown strong reactions.
-How to identifying order blocks:
1. Look for strong price reactions: Analyze the chart to identify areas where the price has displayed significant and notable reactions, such as sharp reversals, extended consolidations, or breakouts.
2. Mark potential order block levels: Once you identify these areas of strong price reactions, mark them as potential order block levels on your chart. These levels represent key price zones where institutional traders may have executed large orders.
3. Assess support and resistance characteristics: Consider how the price behaves with the marked order block levels. If the price bounces off a specific level multiple times, it indicates a robust level of support or resistance, depending on whether the price approached the level from above or below.
4. Watch for role reversal: When an order block level is breached, its role as support or resistance can reverse. For instance, a broken resistance level may transform into a support level, and vice versa. In such cases, traders often wait for a retest of the broken level before entering trades in the direction of the breakout.
By following these steps and considering the principles of support and resistance, traders can effectively identify and utilize order blocks in their trading strategies. However, it’s important to note that order block analysis is just one tool among many in a comprehensive trading approach.
-How To Trade Order Blocks:
The steps you’ve mentioned provide a general guideline for trading order blocks in forex. Here’s a breakdown of each step:
1. Point of Interest (POI): Start by identifying potential order blocks on higher time frames, such as daily and 4-hour charts. These could be areas of consolidation or strong price reactions. Once you’ve marked these POIs, move to the next step.
2. Optimization: Switch to lower time frames like 1-hour, 15-minute, or 5-minute charts to refine and optimize your POIs. By zooming in on these lower time frames, you can better analyze the price action within the identified areas.
3. Price Observation: Keep an eye on the price action in the higher time frame. Monitor how the price behaves as it approaches your POI. This observation helps you determine the strength of the order block and potential trading opportunities.
4. Rejection Analysis: When the price reaches your POI, switch to the lower time frame to examine how the order block reacts to the price. Look for signs of rejection, like fair value gap
5. Entry on Lower Time Frame: Once you’ve observed a rejection or a significant reaction at the order block on the lower time frame, you can plan your entry. Look for suitable entry signals, such as a breakout, pullback, FVG price Imbalance, and more
6. Stop Loss Placement: To manage risk, it’s important to place a stop loss order. Consider setting your stop loss 1 to 5 pips below the order block ict to allow for potential market noise and fluctuations. This helps protect your trading capital in case the trade doesn’t go as planned.
Remember, these steps provide a general framework for trading ict order blocks, but it’s crucial to develop a trading strategy that suits your risk tolerance, trading style, and market conditions.
It’s recommended to thoroughly back test and practice your strategy before applying it with real money. Additionally, staying updated with market news and having proper risk management practices are essential for successful trading.
Mastering the Art of Identifying Support and Resistance Levels📈
Mastering the Art of Identifying Support and Resistance Levels in Forex Trading 📈💰
✅In the world of forex trading, support and resistance levels play a crucial role in understanding market dynamics and making informed decisions. These key levels indicate areas where the price of a currency pair is likely to encounter obstacles, either in its upward or downward movements. Being able to identify these levels accurately is a key skill that every forex trader should possess. In this article, we will delve into the intricacies of identifying support and resistance levels in forex and provide examples to enhance your understanding.
Here are 2 supports that I spotted on Gold on a daily time frame.
✅ Identifying Support and Resistance Levels:
Support and resistance levels in forex can be identified through various methods, including:
1. Price Action Analysis: Analyzing historical price movements to identify areas where the price has repeatedly reversed or stalled.
2. Trend Lines: Drawing trend lines to connect swing highs and swing lows to identify potential support and resistance levels.
3. Moving Averages: Using moving averages to identify dynamic support and resistance levels based on the average price over a specific period.
And here is a perfect example of a key resistance on EURUSD on a daily.
✅ Examples:
Example 1: Price Bounce Off Support Level
In the chart of a currency pair, if the price consistently reverses or bounces off a particular price level, it indicates a strong support level. Traders can observe how the price reacts to this level and consider it in their trading decisions.
Example 2: Resistance Turned Support
Sometimes, a resistance level that was previously difficult for the price to break through becomes a new support level after it is breached. Identifying such levels can provide traders with valuable insights into potential reversal or continuation patterns.
These are the intraday structures on GBPUSD on a 4H.
Mastering the art of identifying support and resistance levels in forex trading can significantly enhance a trader’s ability to make informed decisions and improve overall trading performance. By incorporating these key levels into your analysis and decision-making processes, you can gain a deeper understanding of market movements and potential trading opportunities. Happy trading! 📊🔍
Master Candlesticks: The key trading success!Here's an analysis of various candlestick patterns commonly used in technical analysis of financial markets:
Dragonfly Doji: This candlestick has a small body with a long lower shadow and no upper shadow, indicating significant price exploration lower but closing near the opening price. It is often interpreted as a signal of a potential bullish reversal.
Morning Star: A bullish reversal pattern that forms in a downtrend. It consists of three candles: a long bearish candle, followed by a shorter candle signifying uncertainty, and a third long bullish candle.
Doji: The Doji is a candle with a very small body, indicating that the opening and closing prices are nearly equal. This pattern reflects market indecision.
Three Bullish Candles: This pattern consists of three consecutive bullish candles, often interpreted as a strong bullish signal, especially if it occurs after a downtrend.
Three Bearish Candles: Opposite to the Three Bullish Candles, this pattern shows three consecutive bearish candles and can indicate a strong bearish signal.
Bullish Engulfing: A two-candle pattern where a bullish candle follows and completely "engulfs" the body of the preceding bearish candle. It indicates a potential trend reversal to the upside.
Hammer: This candle has a small body and a long lower shadow, indicating that the market has rejected lower prices. It's considered a bullish reversal signal.
Gravestone Doji: Similar to the Dragonfly but with a long upper shadow and no lower shadow, suggesting that prices rose but were then rejected, often interpreted as a bearish reversal signal.
Hanging Man: This candle resembles a Hammer but occurs at the top of an uptrend, suggesting that bearish pressure is starting to emerge.
Morning Doji Star: A variation of the Morning Star, where the middle candle is a Doji. This pattern further strengthens the indication of a potential bullish reversal.
Each of these candle formations provides valuable insights into market sentiments and potential trend reversals. However, it's important to use them in conjunction with other forms of technical analysis for greater reliability.
Have a nice trading day.
Unlocking the Secrets of the Rising Wedge Pattern 📈🔍
Unlocking the Secrets of the Rising Wedge Pattern 📈🔍
✅The rising wedge pattern is a powerful technical analysis tool that can offer valuable insights into potential future price movements in the financial markets. This pattern is characterized by converging trend lines, with the upper trend line sloping upwards and the lower trend line sloping downwards. Traders and investors often use the rising wedge pattern to anticipate potential reversals or breakouts in the market.
Here we can see a rising wedge before the breakout
✅Understanding the Rising Wedge Pattern:
The rising wedge pattern typically forms during an uptrend and is considered a bearish reversal pattern. This pattern suggests that the upward momentum is weakening, and a potential trend reversal may be on the horizon. As price continues to oscillate between the converging trend lines, it creates a narrowing price range, indicating increasing indecision and potential impending volatility.
✅Key Characteristics:
- Converging trend lines
- Upward sloping upper trend line
- Downward sloping lower trend line
- Decreasing trading range
- Bearish reversal potential
Here we can see a rising wedge pattern after the breakout. The pattern evidently played out well.
✅Examples:
1. Stock Market Example:
In the stock market, a rising wedge pattern may develop on the price chart of a company's stock during a prolonged uptrend. As the pattern unfolds, traders and investors monitor the potential breakout or breakdown of the pattern to make informed trading decisions.
2. Forex Market Example:
In the forex market, the rising wedge pattern can be observed on the price chart of a currency pair. Traders analyze this pattern to anticipate potential trend reversals and plan their entry and exit points accordingly.
Here is one more rising wedge breakout example
✅Conclusion:
The rising wedge pattern is a valuable tool for technical analysts and traders seeking to gain an edge in the financial markets. By identifying and understanding the characteristics of this pattern, market participants can better anticipate potential trend reversals and capitalize on emerging opportunities.
By incorporating the rising wedge pattern into their analysis, traders can enhance their ability to make informed decisions and navigate the dynamic landscape of the financial markets. 📊💡
Learn What is PULLBACK and WHY It is Important For TRADING
In the today's post, we will discuss the essential element of price action trading - a pullback.
There are two types of a price action leg of a move: impulse leg and pullback.
Impulse leg is a strong bullish/bearish movement that determines the market sentiment and trend.
While a pullback is the movement WITHIN the impulse.
The impulse leg has the level of its high and the level of its low.
If the impulse leg is bearish, a pullback initiates from its low and should complete strictly BELOW its high.
If the impulse leg is bullish, a pullback movement starts from its high and should end ABOVE its low.
Simply put, a pullback is a correctional movement within the impulse.
It occurs when the market becomes overbought/oversold after a strong movement in a bullish/bearish trend.
Here is the example of pullback on EURJPY pair.
The market is trading in a strong bullish trend. After a completion of each bullish impulse, the market retraces and completes the correctional movements strictly within the ranges of the impulses.
Here are 3 main reasons why pullbacks are important:
1. Trend confirmation
If the price keeps forming pullbacks after bullish impulses, it confirms that the market is in a bullish bearish trend.
While, a formation of pullbacks after bearish legs confirms that the market is trading in a downtrend.
Here is the example how bearish impulses and pullbacks confirm a healthy bearish trend on WTI Crude Oil.
2. Entry points
Pullbacks provide safe entry points for perfect trend-following opportunities.
Traders can look for pullbacks to key support/resistances, trend lines, moving averages or fibonacci levels, etc. for shorting/buying the market.
Take a look how a simple rising trend line could be applied for trend-following trading on EURNZD.
3. Risk management
By waiting for a pullback, traders can get better reward to risk ratio for their trades as they can set tighter stop loss and bigger take profit.
Take a look at these 2 trades on Bitcoin. On the left, a trader took a trade immediately after a breakout, while on the right, one opened a trade on a pullback.
Patience gave a pullback trader much better reward to risk ration with the same target and take profit level as a breakout trader.
Pullback is a temporary correction that often occurs after a significant movement. Remember that pullbacks do not guarantee the trend continuation and can easily turn into reversal moves. However, a combination of pullback and other technical tools and techniques can provide great trading opportunities.
Please, let me know if you have any questions! Also, please, support this post with like and comment! Thank you for reading!
Part 2: Price Action Breakdown - Advance ElementsIn the first part, we discussed the components of the price action theory. We covered value area, control line, and excess price with examples, setups & guidelines (with my own observations.) Now, in this idea, we are going to cover the following topics:
No trading zone
Initiative & responsive trading
Shifting of the value area
Bullish Value area
Bearish value area
Extention of the value area
Combining all the pieces
I request all of you to visit our first part if you have not read it yet.
Check out the following demo chart, and try to mention each component by yourself:
Now, you can check the following chart, and see if you have denoted correctly or noted:
1) No trading zone:
No trading zone/activities is the area where trading is not happening. It shows the strength of buyers in the lower band and the strength of the sellers in the upper boundary. Its shows who is controlling, who will be controlling, and who have lost the opportunity.
What does it mean?
🔹If the length of the no-trading zone is wide at the lower band, it shows that buyers are controlling the movement and sellers are not able to form trading activities.
🔹If the length of the no-trading zone is wide at the upper band, it shows that sellers are controlling the movement and buyers are not able to form trading activities.
Observing the given formation that shows a sideways value area is enough to understand the whole story. There were actually three no-trading zones in the value area: two on the lower band and one on the upper band.
The first NTZ(No-trading zone) on the lower band was the signal of the movement controlled by buyers. NTZ-2 was the widest of the value area, where sellers snatched the control from buyers and started outnumbering the buyers. NTZ-3 was the last no-trading zone where the buyers were on the controlled buy and couldn't give a response to the sellers' initiative move. The excess was the last price point from sellers that started the supply pressure.
2) Initiative & responsive trading
As we discussed earlier, price movements are the result of the interaction between supply and demand. Buyer(demand) and seller's(supply) intuition are the main components of the price.
Value area from where buyers and sellers are satisfied with the current prices. Neither buyers want to increase, nor the seller is interested in low prices at least for some duration. It's called equilibrium between buyers and sellers.
What if it's enough?
# Now buyers don't want to keep the prices as it's too low for them. So, the buyers will make an initiative to break the upper band of the value area. It is called "initiative" by buyers.
# Sellers have to stop them from going out of the value area by making excess, which is called "response" by sellers. Anyone, either buyers or sellers, who are not satisfied can make an initiative. However, the opposite party has to respond to their initiative and settle into equilibrium again.
Case 1:
- The movement can only reach equilibrium by responding to each initiative. If a failure occurs, it signals evidence of a big move in the direction of the initiative. As per the chart, whenever buyers have made an initiative to move outside of the value area, sellers have responded with supply pressure and vice versa.
Case 2:
- Buyers have made an initiative, but sellers couldn't hold back the buyers' pressure and ended up losing movement. Here, we can say that the buyers have given a breakout of the value area, and the sellers' response was a failure.
3) Shifting of the value area
- Traders don't have to be upset after the breakout of the value area. Supply and demand will balance and unbalance again, and traders will get an opportunity to trade according to the theory. We all know of the tenet of the dow theory that "price tends to trend ." Value area also shifts its value after the breakout/breakdown, often in the direction of the trend.
Uptrend: The price was in an uptrend. After the breakout of the first value area, it has formed the second, and so on.
Downtrend: The price was in a downtrend. After the breakdown of the first value area, it has formed the second, and so on.
My Trading Strategy in 3 Steps 📊As per @TradingView 's previous post, in this article, I am going to share my trading strategy in three steps.
📌 Step 1:
First, start from the higher timeframes like Daily/Weekly to identify the current long-term trend. Is it bullish, bearish, or stuck inside a range?
If the price is sitting in the middle of nowhere, then it is a NO trade zone, as the price has a 50% chance to go either up or down. Thus, there's no edge!
Remember: No trade is also a trade.
📚Wait for the price to approach the lower bound or upper bound. Then proceed to Step 2.
📌Step 2:
Zoom in to lower timeframes like H1 and M30 to look for any reversal setups.
A basic approach would be to wait for a swing low to be broken downward around a resistance as a signal that the bears are taking over.
In parallel, wait for a swing high to be broken upward around a support for the bulls to take over.
This would be the confirmation to enter the trade.
Just like a sniper waiting for the perfect shot!
📌Step 3:
Target at least a 1/2 risk-to-reward ratio. This way, even with a 50% win rate, you can still be profitable.
Remember: We are risk managers, not traders. We can't control the market; the only thing we have control over is our risk.
📚Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Hope you find the content of this post useful 🙏
All strategies are good; if managed properly!
~Richard Nasr
MASTERING MARKET STRUCTURE : BOS, CHOCHBreak of Structure: This term is used in trading and technical analysis to describe a significant change in the price action of an asset. It occurs when the established pattern of higher highs and higher lows (in an uptrend) or lower highs and lower lows (in a downtrend) is disrupted, indicating a potential change in market sentiment and trend direction.
Examples of Break of Structure: You can find examples of "break of structure" in both bullish and bearish movements. In a bullish scenario, a "break of structure" occurs when a new Higher High (HH) is formed, surpassing the previous High (H). In a bearish context, it happens when the price forms a new Lower Low (LL) below the previous Low (L), indicating a potential shift in market sentiment and trend direction.
Shift in Structure : Sometimes, a "break of structure" leads to a more profound change in market character, referred to as a "Shift in Structure." This often involves a transition from a bullish to a bearish trend or vice versa.
Change of Character (CHOCH): The first instance of a significant shift in market sentiment and trend direction is termed "Change of Character" (CHOCH). This emphasizes the unique nature of the initial change.
Break of Structure (BOS): Subsequent occurrences of a similar shift in market sentiment are labeled as "Breaks of Structure" (BOS). These serve to differentiate the first significant change from those that follow.
These concepts are vital in trading and technical analysis as they help traders identify changes in market sentiment, adapt to evolving trends, and make informed trading decisions. Recognizing a "break of structure" and understanding when it leads to a "shift in structure" is essential for effective trading.
Mastering Market StructureBullish Market Structure:
Bullish Vibes! It's all about making Higher Highs and Higher Lows. When you spot this pattern, you're riding the wave of optimism in the market, and it's your chance to seize the moment and soar with the bulls.
Consolidation Market Structure:
Consolidation Market Structure is all about lateral movement, where the market forms Equal Highs and Equal Lows. It's a phase of uncertainty, with neither bulls nor bears holding a clear advantage. Traders often await a breakout to determine the next market direction.
Bearish Market Structure:
Bearish Market Structure: Get ready for Lower Highs and Lower Lows. Sellers are in control, creating a solid downtrend. Traders look for short entry opportunities on retracements.
Example of Winning Price Action from a Live Trading SessionPrepping a market and having a defined directional bias coming into a trading session, is the key for a winning day.
In the video I talk through a Live Trading session we had with our group and the reasons why we were bias short.
I talk through the areas our traders hit sell entries and Where and Why I was happy to enter the market short once my ideal Price Action setup gave me all the confirmation that I needed.
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My thoughts on the coming week ... Whats up gold gang! .. price has closed above the monthly level .. 1000 pips ish in a week wow! thats crazy
im expecting a small retracement before lifting off once more for gold this week ..
the candle closed with no top wick, so a retrace is likely before more upside due to the ongoing conflict in Israel
Ill be back later for the official outlook .. until then .. enjoy your sunday
tommy