BOS - BREAK OF STRUCTURE 📉📉📉🎯 WHAT IS BOS ?
BOS - break of strucuture. I will use market strucutre bullish or bearish to understand if the institutions are buying or selling a financial asset.
To spot a bullish/bearish market strucutre we should see a higher highs and higher lows and viceversa, to spot the continuation of the bullish market strucuture we should see bullish price action above the last old high in the strucutre this is the BOS.
🎯 BOS for me is a confirmation that price will go higher after the retracement and we are still in a bullish move
Kindly see attached photos
Do you use BOS as a trading concept ?
Btc!
Combining wyckoff's theory with ONCHAIN data"This is a hypothesis that needs more testing to be more precise."
Wyckoff's theory t is one of the most influential theories of market expression, and the most important components of which are lateral movement areas and trends. This theory turns the graph into something like Dots and lines (stations and paths). But it is not as easy to use as written in books. After getting acquainted with Wyckoff's theory, I read several books on the subject, hoping that they could help me identify this area of lateral movement, the area of accumulation, or distribution. But there was a fundamental drawback. It is challenging to diagnose this issue. In fact, the rules discussed in these books are highly interpretive and subjective, and two different individual traders may come to exactly opposite conclusions based on their interpretation.
But as I became more familiar with the onchain analysis, an idea came to my mind that might be useful for more objectively recognizing charts based on Wyckoff's theory.
Composite Man: Wyckoff proposed a theory to help understand price movements in stocks. this is the “Composite Man” theory. (The same concept of whales or strong hands.)
he said: “…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.” (The Richard D. Wyckoff Course in Stock Market Science and Technique, section 9, p. 1-2)
In fact, composite Man is a hypothetical man who has so much money and stocks that when he wants he can gradually increase the price by buying stocks and creating demand, and when the price goes high enough he selles his stock and lower the price. The composite man is the main player in the market. Wyckoff says that if you want to make a good profit from the market, figure out what a composite man game is.
In fact, having a way of showing us where the Composite Man is in the market, can help us understand future trends
Who are the strong hands in the cryptocurrency market? (I use the strong hand word here instead of the composite man)
There are those who buy or sell more per capita than other market participants (retailers).
To understand this in the bitcoin market, I have used 3 charts and concepts:
1- Sending Addresses: The number of coins addresses making inflow transactions to the exchange.
Indicates the number of sellers' wallets (number of sellers)
2- buyers Addresses: The number of coins addresses making outflow transactions from the exchange.
Indicates the number of buyers' wallets (number of buyers)
3- Pay attention to this issue: the volume of transactions shows both the volume of sales and the buy (Volume of buy and sale is equal in the market)
Considering the above 3 issues, it can be concluded:
- If the number of Receiving Addresses is higher than the Sending Addresses (the number of people who bought compared to the number of those who sold), it indicates that more people bought and fewer people sold (given that the volume of sales and buys are the same) So the sellers were stronger hands. In such a situation, the composite man is on the sales side.
- If the number of Sending Addresses is higher than the Receiving Addresses (number of people who have sold more than the number of people who have bought), it indicates that more people have been sellers and fewer people have been buyers (given that the volume of sales and buys are the same) so the buyers were stronger hands. In such a situation, the Composite man is on the buying side.
To do this, the oscillator at the bottom of the chart divides the Number of Receiving Addresses by the Number of Sending Addresses. Numbers above 1.2 indicate that the Composite man is on the side of the sellers and should expect a price reduction in the future.
Values below 1 (or 1.2) indicate that the Composite man is on the buyers side. And we should expect price increases in the future.
Steps to invest successfully #2Hello everyone,
During this video we are going to analyse the following subjects:
- Look at the bigger picture.
- Draw trend lines using the most significant lows/highs.
- Look for support and resistance.
- Look for candles.
- Understand where the stock/coin sits now.
- Reasonably predict where the stock/coin will be in the future.
- Make sure you are using EMA lines.
- When and why placing your stop loss is important.
- Pivot point.
Remember, you will never be right every time. However, the key factor is to limit your risk by buying close to support.
Seb.
The beginning of an investorHello everyone,
This is my first tutorial video, during this video you will find the following concepts:
- Primary trend
- Secondary trend
- Risk vs Reward
- Stop loss
- Volume
- Moving Averages
- Capital
20 minutes will never be enough to discuss all the basics related to trading and investing, however I hope that some of you are going to find this video useful for their personal growth.
Seb.
How to Approach the Market by LevelsIn this educational post, I'll be demonstrating how you can approach the market with simple technical analysis techniques, and logic based on simple probabilities.
This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
Identifying Support and Resistance
- The first thing you want to do, when you begin with a clean chart with nothing on it, is identify support and resistance levels.
- There are a plethora of ways to do this - you can do it using technical indicators, heat maps, order books, etc
- The more I chart, the more I find it convenient and accurate to identify support and resistance zones based on past price action.
- Thus, for this example, in lieu of using complicated indicators or moving averages, I've decided to simply identify key levels of support and resistance.
- Let's begin with the lowest point of support at $40.7k
- This is a level that has been tested countless times, both as support and resistance, during this entire trading range of $30-60k since last year.
- As we are currently trading above this level, this key region plays the role of support.
- If bears manage to push us down below this level, it would provide confirmation that further downside is highly probable.
- Next, we have the red line marking resistance at $45k levels.
- We have tested this region twice already this year, and failed to break and close above it.
- Thus, this level represents local resistance that we need to break and close above, in order to continue on with the bullish reversal.
- We're then faced with the resistance at $47.2k, which is Bitcoin's opening price for the 2022 yearly candle.
- The opening and closing prices of candles on the weekly, monthly, and yearly candles can play an important role as support or resistance.
- Taking this into account, if we were to break above $45k and close above those regions, it would be very likely for us to continue upwards and test $47.2k
- Then we have $53.7k, a key level of support-turned-resistance.
- We can see how important this level is, as the price dumped down to $42k immediately last year, when support at $53k broke.
- Thus, this is a key level of resistance that must be taken out before we can rally towards the $60k ranges.
Logical Approach Using Probabilities
- It's important to understand that predicting the market's future price action is impossible
- And timing the market, while possible, is extremely difficult.
- Thus, the best approach retail investors can take in understanding the market is one based on probabilities.
- "If X, then Y" is all you need to know.
- So for instance, applying this logic on the chart above, we would see something like this:
- "If Bitcoin breaks down below $40.7k, then we could expect further downside to new lower lows."
- "If Bitcoin breaks and closes above $45k, then we could expect it to test the yearly open resistance at $47.2k."
Conclusion
This market is difficult for old and new investors and traders alike. There are a lot of external factors combined - rate hikes, regional conflict, etc - that the market hasn't experienced yet. Bitcoin's price action is not extremely predictable at these levels, hence the best measured approach to take in understanding the market is to take it by levels. Identify key regions and levels of support and resistance, and look for confirmation and invalidation. In my personal opinion, I think that the bottom is either in, or that we're very close to the bottom. But until there's clear confirmation that we're out of the woods, I remain cautiously bullish.
How to find Volume Profile manually In this quick tutorial, I show you how to find the volume profile range manually.
So what is a Volume Profile?
The Volume Profile study represents trading activity over a time period at specified price levels. Considering the input-defined aggregation period, the Volume Profile plots a histogram showing price distribution, revealing the dominant price values in terms of volume . The width of the histogram's row represents the number of actual transactions made within the price interval defined by the row's height.
The longest row of the Volume Profile defines the price level at which the highest number of real transactions were made during the specified time period
Like and follow for more Quick Tips.
inverse head and shoulders pattern examplesAn inverse head and shoulders pattern is comprised of three component parts: After long bearish trends, the price falls to a trough and subsequently rises to form a peak. ... The price falls for a third time, but only to the level of the first trough, before rising once more and reversing the trend.
FOLLOW THE RAINBOWWhile technical analysis is usually NOT easy, once in a while it can be.
This chart - which shows the TOTAL MARKET CAP minus ETH & BTC - just so happens to be one of those rare cases, and some simple pattern recognition is all it requires to see the obvious similarities that exist between the two fractals/structures. Assuming the pattern holds, expect to see price bounce one more time within the final (purple) circle before...BLAST OFF.
USDT.D Daily Analysis🟢USDT's dominance bounced from the uptrend line support to form a twin floor pattern and is now above the neckline of this pattern, which also acts as a support. If the retest is successful, it is expected to move upwards, which will be a sign of decline for the market because the USDT and BTC dominance are inversely related to each other.
Use the appropriate loss limit for your trades, which has a very high possibility of emotional movement in the market.
⚠ This Analysis will be updated.
Amir Hossein
📅 02.19.2022
⚠️ (DYOR)
BTC FAIR MARKET VALUE IN RELATION TO VOLATILITY VS. GOLD. Came across this article which confirmed what I long suspected. The more institutionalized BTC becomes the more it's volatility decreases and value increases but there is a cut off. Fair market value will always be in the forefront as far as an investment grade asset. BTC overtaking gold is highly unlikely in our lifetime. At present, there is in global circulation roughly $11 TRILLION in gold. Compare that to BTC where all the bitcoins in the world were worth roughly $1.03 trillion. Bitcoin is worth only about 9% of the world's gold supply. The combined value of bitcoin was equivalent to just 2.9% of the world's money.
JPMorgan says its long-term bitcoin price target of $150,000 is unlikely as surging volatility challenges institutional adoption.
Bitcoin's "fair value" is 12% below its current price, based on its volatility in relation to gold, according to JPMorgan.
The bank's analysis was made on the assumption that bitcoin is four times as volatile as gold, strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a note Tuesday. In that scenario, bitcoin's value would be one quarter of $150,000, or $38,000, they said.
But if bitcoin were only three times as volatile as gold, then its fair value would be around $50,000, they added.
Bitcoin last traded 1.8% higher on the day around $43,564, close to its highest for a month, but is still down 8% so far this year, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
JPMorgan's long-term price target for bitcoin is $150,000, up from last year's $146,000 target, assuming that its volatility level meets that of gold, or bitcoin allocations get the same weighting as gold in investor portfolios.
But the bank thinks this target is unlikely to be reached any time soon, given that such a neat intersection between gold and bitcoin may not happen in the foreseeable future.
Bitcoin has had a rough start to the year, with the overall cryptocurrency market slumping, as appetite for risk assets waned against a backdrop of persistently high inflation and the Federal Reserve's increasingly hawkish stance. The leading cryptocurrency fell below $36,000, and ether tumbled below $2,500 — both off from record highs of around $63,000 and $4,800, respectively.
One of the major drivers for crypto in the last two years has been the huge amounts of cheap cash that has emanated from fiscal and monetary stimulus programs during the pandemic, and much of that is now coming to an end.
JPMorgan said January's crypto market correction, in which bitcoin lost 17% in value, looks less like capitulation, or an extended period of decline, in comparison to last May when bitcoin fell 35%.
Still, strategists said the biggest challenge for bitcoin is its volatility, as it's often unappealing to institutional investors.
JPMorgan said cryptocurrencies are seeing hot growth relative to other alternative asset classes, but this doesn't have to stem from continually rising prices.
"This growth does not necessarily need to come from continuous price appreciation of existing cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and ethereum, already popular among institutional investors, but in our mind it is more likely to come from the expansion of the universe of digital assets," the strategists said.
WHAT are Bitcoin cycles and WHY is it so important ✅❓What are bitcoin cycles and why is it so important❓
🚀This graph shows the entire history of bitcoin, approximately 13 years. If you open the logarithmic display of the chart, you can see some patterns in price behavior. Namely, that bitcoin moves in cycles. Which in turn are divided into an uptrend and a downtrend.
🎢Three complete cycles can be clearly seen on the chart. One cycle lasts four years on average. Of which 2.5 years of growth, and 1.5 years of decline. At the same time we would like to note that the cycles expand over time. But with the arrival of big money, institutional investors and various global companies, this pattern will be less and less noticeable (like the example of the S&P 500).
Why is bitcoin cyclical❓
The answer is actually very simple. It is only noticeable because bitcoin is in its early stage of development and acceptance. There are cycles in everything, it is a natural phenomenon.
🔋As examples:
- World cycles, every 10 to 12 years there is a crisis followed by a renewal and continued growth;
- Natural cycles, many examples of how the environment develops and renews;
- Our well-being, sometimes you have noticed that your mood and energy is at its highest when you are very productive and feel good, and vice versa, when it is at its lowest and you are less productive.
Markets are human creations, so they are also subject to natural behavior.
How can cycles help trading❓
✅Statistically, according to brokers and exchanges, 85-90% of traders are losing, 5-10% of traders are breaking even and only 5-7% of traders are earning. One of the most important tasks for any trader is to identify the right trend. Usually, when traders try to trade against the trend, they lose their trading accounts. That is why it is important to understand how to identify the trend and how to earn with the movement of the trend. This is where understanding bitcoin cycles helps. Some of our trading systems are based on these principles.
💚 Please like and subscribe to us to get more ideas like this.
Superprofits in BTC mining are a thing of the past."Technical analysis" of the cost of mining BTC.
We have already seen when in the bear market in the range from August 2018 to November 2020, the price of BTC pressed against the cost of production (best miner @ 0.1kWh).
I expect that in the future the price, due to the increasing competition of miners, will not differ much from the cost price (after the 4th halving).
The Madness of the Crowds ✅✅✅ ✅ The Madness of Crowds
One way to view the market is as a disorganized crowd of individuals whose sole common purpose is to ascertain the future mood of the economy—or the balance of power between optimists (bulls) and pessimists (bears)—and thereby generate returns from a correct trading decision made today that will pay off in the future.
🎯However, it's important to realize that the crowd is comprised of a variety o individuals, each one prone to competing and conflicting emotions. Optimism and pessimism, hope and fear—all these emotions can exist in one investor at different times or in multiple investors or groups at the same time. In any trading decision, the primary goal is to make sense of this crush of emotion, thereby evaluating the psychology of the market crowd. Understanding Herd Behavior
The key to such widespread phenomena lies in the herding nature of the crowd: the way in which a collection of usually calm, rational individuals can be overwhelmed by such emotion when it appears their peers
🎯 The Risks of Following the Crowd
The key to enduring success in trading is to develop an individual, independent system that exhibits the positive qualities of studious, non-emotional, rational analysis, and highly disciplined implementation. The choice will depend on the individual trader's unique predilection for charting and technical analysis. If market reality jibes with the tenets of the trader's system, a successful and profitable career is born (at least for the moment).
🎯 So the ideal situation for any trader is that beautiful alignment that occurs when the market crowd and one's chosen system of analysis conspire to create profitability. This is when the public seems to confirm your system of analysis and is likely the very situation where your highest profits will be earned in the short term. Yet this is also the most potentially devastating situation in the medium to long term because the individual trader can be lulled into a false sense of security as their analysis is confirmed. The trader is then subtly and irrevocably sucked into joining the crowd, straying from their individual system and giving increasing credence to the decisions of others.
🎯 Inevitably, there will be a time when the crowd's behavior will diverge from the direction suggested by the trader's analytical system, and this is the precise time at which the trader must put on the brakes and exit his position. This is also the most difficult time to exit a winning position, as it is very easy to second guess the signal that one is receiving, and to hold out for just a little more profitability. As is always the case, straying from one's system may be fruitful for a time, but in the long term, it is always the individual, disciplined, analytical approach that will win out over blind adherence to those around you.
Order Types in the Markets💰💰💰🎯 In the financial market the orders are on two categories.
✅ Market Execution orders LONG - BUY SHORT - SELL meaning that you are ok with the price on the certain asset and you would like to short or long it on the other side there is
✅ Pending Orders - meaning you are not ok with the actual price and you would like to buy/sell it later in time I use pending orders when i am out of my trading office so i dont miss trading opportunities
Was this valuable, drop a comment !
Wanna identify reversals? This video shows how I do it :)The time is going to be coming soon when the market is going to go back to a bull market. But what if you could identify how to find those reversals yourself? In this video I go over how I use TA to find VERY important reversal and breakout zones. Enjoy
EDUCATIONAL POST (FVG - Fair Value Gap)EDUCATIONAL POST: (FVG - Fair value Gap) 📊📈
Let's take some time to explain a trading term I often use in my TA. 🤓
FVG - or Fair Value Gap (= inefficiency, void...)
👉 What they mean by that is an area of the chart where the price moved past in just 1 single candle, meaning the candle before + after haven't touched this area.
👉 This is how such a gap is formed.
👉 This gap frequently works as a magnet for the future price, indicating a CONTINUATION (bullish —> bounce, bearish —> drop)
NOTE: this is the strongest on the first touch it does, after that it's power deminishes and price often moves back through it.
EXAMPLE: (bullish) price moves up fast and creates a FVG. This area will act as a bounce area for when the price drops back down to this, before continuing higher. I've added a theoretical + $BTC example. (scroll back to see it on the chart)
Hope you learned something. 👌
Oli 🤙
Can Technical Analysis Predict The Future?People who tell you, a trader, not to learn Technical Analysis do so trying to keep you ignorant about the true conditions of the markets, not because the tool flawed.
Many of the people fighting it have no idea how it actually works or just can't get their heads around it.
The more I use it, the more I study, the more I practice, the easier it becomes.
It is not about predicting the future.
It is about gaining access to information that can help you obtain, when trading, better results.
If you would like to read into the future try Astrology or Numerology but Technical Analysis is for those who want read the markets as they are.
Try it!
It can be profitable.
It can be fun.
Namaste.
Strong Shakeout/StopLoss-Hunt Reveals The Bottom - RSKThis is the pattern that reveals the bottom for the Altcoins (Altcoins vs Bitcoin).
We are looking at it on the RSK Infrastructure Framework (RIFBTC) chart but it is present/showing up everywhere.
This pattern is what we call a "shakeout" or a stop-loss hunt move.
The market breaks down strong below support just to move quickly back above it.
This started happening 24-Jan. and 7 days later all loses have been recovered and instead of consolidation/sideways we will see a new uptrend form.
Another detail about this pattern is the bullish divergence that always shows up long-term.
If you zoomout, you can see the higher low on the MACD and the lower low on RIFBTC.
Keep this pattern in mind when looking for new trading opportunities.
I really hope it helps.
Namaste.
What To Focus On As A BeginnerFocusing on winning trades is your setback as a beginner
Every individual begins their trading journey with the idea that trading is all about winning trades and making money. Soon after their dreams are shattered when they realise it was not as easy as they had thought it would be. Now as we all know, the road to success to many is long and difficult, and that’s exactly what makes them successful. So why should the road to success in trading be any different? Look at top performing athletes, they trained for years before reaching any kind of success that definitely did not occur overnight. This bring me to my main point where many traders could be failing due to focusing on winning trades rather than the process it takes to become a good trader.
Every trader beginning their journey needs to understand that trading the financial markets is no different than a top performing athlete. In order to achieve success, one needs to develop their skills over years. Instead of focusing on winning every single trade, one should be focusing on the process and the experience they are gaining over this time. Studying your mistakes, your losses, your psychological weaknesses, your analysis, and your understanding of the charts, are far more important at this stage than focusing on winning trades. Look at your trading journey like a student attending university, a student will learn over years different topics, where some will seem worthless at the time, but will however develop their skills in the necessary fields to succeed in the future.
Every beginner should deeply focus on the process. Winning trades are a by-product of a developed successful strategy which also requires a developed individual. The trader needs to be developed in their psychology above all in order to trust their strategy and apply it correctly without deviating from the plan. Take the time to focus on all aspects of your trading, and let the winning trades come as a result of that in the future. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint, always remember that.
⚠️ Read this if you trade ⚠️The impact of the subconscious and emotions on trading with simple solutions.
Why can't we make a profit even though we have a correct analysis of the chart?
Why does the price return from where we sell it?
Why do all those who enter with a small volume make a profit which is also a small one, but when the same one is entered with a large volume, it becomes a loss?
Why do we get scared and sell soon?
Why are we so hopeful when we are at loss, but still close our position in the same situation?
Maybe these and similar questions have arisen for you in your trading, but where is the problem?
Why is it that even though we know everything and predict everything correctly, we still don't make much money?
The answer to all these questions lies in the subconscious. As you know, the subconscious is programmed by us, and an important duty of the subconscious is taking the necessary actions when the conscious is not able to, and these actions are taken according to the plan.
The ones we give ourselves come into being.
The subconscious mind usually appears when we are experiencing emotions (happiness, excitement, fear, anger, sadness, etc.) and takes the necessary actions.
For example, when we make a lot of money, we feel happy, and from here on, the decisions are based on emotions, or when we lose and get upset or angry, and from now on, our decisions are still based on emotions.
So here is the problem.
What is the solution that emotions take the permission to function correctly from us and we can not do the necessary work properly?
In order to solve this problem, we must point out the cases that cause emotions to be extremely dominant and decisions to be sent from the subconscious.
1- No entry strategy: Many only listen to the news for trading, which is certainly harmful, there is news for friends who have no entry and exit strategy, and they are the first group to be easily preyed upon by whales.
What is the strategy? Strategy means selecting an entry, exit, and stop-loss point based on specific techniques and conditions. This is done before entering and opening the position. The problem is that many of us only think about the entry point and we never know where we are going to sell. We just want to sell whenever we go up a little, or we may even have a price for sale, but we do not place an order for that price, and we want to sell whenever it reaches that price.
Rest assured, in the second case, you will never sell at a good profit because the subconscious does not allow it, and a voice in your ear says: it is going up, do not sell!
So strategy in one sentence means knowing what I am doing and to know how much I will gain before I enter a share or cryptocurrency and also if I've made a mistake, how much I will lose.
So if you do this before buying, you won't have to deal with feelings and you will find the correct and logical points to enter and exit.
If you are going to decide what to do after the purchase or when you are at a loss or a profit, be sure that all your decisions are made unconsciously. And you can not have the correct performance and in 90% of cases, your position is closed with a loss.