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Comparing the 2014-2015 with the 2018-2019 bear markets!Fundamental analysis only! TLDW; What makes the 2018-2019 bubble more bearish: More scams (shitcoins - ponzis - cloud mining scam - giveaways) Big shitcoin increase (too many shitcoins - all fighting each other for liquidity) Shitcoin inflation (Too many premined shitcoins / ICOs - no fairness) Easier to short (Way easier for people to short BTC etc, because they don't believe in them - sucking fiat value out) Cash settled futures (Big players got in early and had this all planned - Also Cash settled futures suck liquidity from spot markets Lots of new scam exchanges and fake volume (Some of these exchanges might be stealing coins from people or trick them to buy scam coins) Bubble in a bubble in a bubble (BTC - ETH - ICOs all fueled each other. First Bitcoin created interest in Ethereum, which then created interest for ICOs, which held Ethereum, which went up and then people took profit into Bitcoin - Essentially a leveraged bubble!) ETH. FIAT and Stablecoin pairs (Bitcoin's price is partially affected by people using it for speculation. Bitcoin also drives this market. So when it is used less / has lower price, shitcoins deflate too! Also arbitrage sucks money out, as there are too many pairs / exchanges, so liquidity is fractured) Dummer money got in (Like Crypto Cobain said, the IQ of people getting in after each bubble is lower... Why? Because back then it was harder to get into Bitcoin. People had to be more technical and educated to understand it). Mt. Gox coins being sold in the market (Mt. Gox 'locked' coins started hitting the market, something that didn't happen in 2014-2015) Back then the market cap was much smaller and there way more lost coins as a percentage (also GBTC had just launched and its 'locked coins' were a big percentage of the total amount) Stablecoin wars (fractured liquidity and people selling 1$ for less - Millions lost by retail that was gained by malicious players) Hash wars (Bcash split - liquidity crunch as well as Bitcoin being dumped for hash power) Finally in 2013 there was an 80% correction. So the 13 to 1200 rally wasn't done in one go. It took a big break before the last big rally. What makes the 2018-2019 bubble more bullish: No Mt. Gox collapse - No Willy (the rally was legit, I don't buy the : Bitfinex printed Tether out of thin air FUD). So the rally was organic and real, without having a big exchange collapse. More Liquidity and on ramps (many good, regulated and unregulated exchanges, along with many other ways to buy Bitcoin like ATMs, vouchers, etc) Improved custody and security (Hardware wallets, custodial solutions like Gemini, Coinbase, BitGo and Casa Hodl) Many OTC desks and Indices (Easier to buy/sell big amounts of coins without affecting the spot market a lot) Big boyz getting in (Bakkt, ErisX and even the probability of an ETF being approved) Crypto funds (back then there weren't many, if any approved crypto funds. Most got approved in 2017-2018-2019) Regulatory clarity (in 2014 there was a lot of fear Bitcoin could be banned etc. Now it is legal and clearly defined in many countries like the US, EU, Japan and South Korea) Better mining (More efficient mining, along with liquid options to hedge, more decentralized and with bigger-long term players getting in) Less inflation (Most big coins like Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum have smaller inflation rates than they had back then) Financial products (Bitmex, Cryptofacilities/Kraken, Huobi, Bitflyer, OKex, Deribit and LedgerX offer liquid futures and options products) True believers own more (The hodlers, the hodlers of last resort, the ones that truly believe in this game, who are now more certain than they were back then - forks also helped true Bitcoiners to increase their Bitcoin holdings by holding Bitcoin!) 25-30B got into ICOs (Just the shitcoin market alone bottomed at 40B, out of which 2.5B was in stablecoins. Some of it has gotten back into Bitcoin or shitcoins) More talent and money (People that work in this industry probably reinvest some of their gains back into the market) Way more good educational material (Back then our understanding was not as great and good information wasn't easy to find) Shitcoins provide a lot of free marketing and education to Bitcoin by proxy, as well as provide Bitcoin with a clear use case - Shitcoin speculation! Crypto borrowing - Use Bitcoin/Shitcoins as collateral to get fiat, without having to sell your coins! Crypto lending - Earn money by lending your coins/fiat for people to trade with it (Bitfinex, Poloniex, Liquid) Bitcoin/Shitcoin Utility - Joinmarket, Lightning, Maker DAO, Masternodes, Staking (Holding crypto to make more... Crypto by providing specific services, essentially restricting the supply) - I truly believe that Staking (DPoS, PoS, Masternodes etc will drive the next bubble really high. Projects like Loom, Maker, Edgeless, Augur, Dash, Ren etc make me believe that there is a lot people that will get in because of this. Decentralised trading tools for traders (Bisq, Liquid, Ren, DEXs, Stablecoins) Even more lost coins, Bitmex insurance fund growing and ICOs still holding ETH (lol-lol-lol) Central banks have take risk away from the markets, by lowering rates and printing a lot of money. But this has also lowered the returns investors expect... Which makes many investors turn into more risky investments. Why risk 100% of your capital for 5-10% returns on junk bonds, and not risk 100% for 1000-10000% by just doubling/tripling your risk? More QE is coming and the total money supply has significantly expanded since early 2015.
BNC:BLXEducation
by BitcoinMacro
Using Long Term Trend Lines in CryptoI wrote this one 8 Dec 2018, but because i wanted to add more things i kept it on hold in a hidden post. I just did not have the time to complete it, so i will post it as it is now and based on question/comments, i might make a part 2 on this post. Every week i keep seeing this long term LOG chart and i simply just can't stand it anymore. I know most people think TA is about drawing some lines and we can simply trade based on those facts. In many cases that is very true, no doubt, it is just not that simple. I have mentioned many times that i simply do not look back at the period before 2017. I am 100% convinced without a second of doubt, that this long term chart of Bitcoin' is as useless as they come. There is one very simple reason for my assumption, the market dynamic (the buyers and sellers) are completely different back than. - The percentage of professional traders is so much more now than back in those days. - HODLing days are over, who still has the confidence to keep 100% of their portfolio in crypto. - Maybe the most important fact of all, it used to be buy and sell only, nowadays shorting has become a defining factor in this crypto world, do not underestimate this for a second. - Leveraged trading, is much more in 2018 than it was in the past. Of course there are levels where certain early investors, who were smart enough to sell (at least part of their portfolio) during the highs, who might think; "what the heck, lets try a little bit again around 1.000/2.000/3.000 or whatever price they think might be worth the shot. Because they remember certain support levels were important to them back in those days. Current support levels are mostly created because buyers step in, but just as much levels where bears take profit on their shorts (which are also buy orders). Since we usually see shorts squeezes at certain levels, it is maybe even safe to say that the bears determine the support levels nowadays. Just look at how many people kept adjusting trend lines the past months and referring to past support levels around in the 5K and 4K levels. But i think we have all seen what value these levels had the past month, absolutely nothing. They all cracked like it was nothing. Now i am not saying i knew it would go like this, i never expected it to get dumped so much so fast. But it was quite obvious that a break of the 6K would be very bad for the market since it was a huge support for 8 months. Throughout 2018, how many times did we have breakouts on those descending trend lines from the 20K level (yellow circles). The only solid useful line i can see here, is the blue one. For the rest, what is the value of them? You need to look at them upfront, not in hindsight. Crypto is a very young market which still has to mature. So it will take many more years to achieve that level. Only THEN can you think of giving real value to these long term trend lines . The best example is the break of a few weeks ago. Not matter if you were a bull or a bear, but the 6K support zone held as support for more than 8 months. Would you really try to buy long term based on that trend line? Or was it quite clear the bears had won the big fight and we would start to see a crash. Now my message is not that it is pointless, there are enough (mature) assets where it does work, i just want to give the message, do not stare blindly at these long term trend lines . Maybe use them as an extra tool to confirm your analysis, but nothing more than that. I talk with several professional traders on a regularly basis, there is not even 1 of them that even mentions these trend lines . To put it in more simple words, when looking at a chart (no matter which time frame) it's like one big story. And like each story it is divided in chapters. What i am trying to say is, do not mix up the different chapters. For example, the 6K triangle is a chapter, or the current possible triangle as a chapter as well. Many of you follow several analysts here, we all make good, decent and bad analysis, but i don't think i need to remind you what catastrophically bad predictions have been made based on these trend line . I don't want to step on any toes, but i just had to get it of my chest, because it's not fair towards the less experienced traders :) Previous educational post: Another educational post, worth the read, makes you understand my message here better; Don't forget to give a like if you appreciate this :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by botje11
92
Wow! What a dogi!! Incoming ... Big Candles!I first published this chart set up via screen shots posted to twitter. Feb 23rd, 2019 See @golftothecore on twitter. This setup was posted just after the last giant narrow dogi with long wicks above and below (red dogi). I added the "slam down zone" on March 8th. Again, check the twitter. This chart set up was a word to the FOMO crowd ... Exercise due diligence and wait for the market to come to you. Make your own f**king coffee, skip Starbucks, and put lottery money in. Stop buying scratch offs and DCA BTC at the bottoms of long red candles ... BTC fell right into my first purple zone. Incoming, Incoming! Giant candle! This is the first time I am publishing to Tradingview. Cheers, Jeffrey Jay Moore
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by toeintocrypto
XRPBTC Consolidation - Breaking UP or DOWN?? Been observing this ticker for a few days now, notice on how the trendlines are drawn: - From higher high to lower high to lower high - From lower low to higher low to higher low The two trendlines looks like they are converging to a single point. This is a consolidation pattern of price action and price is about to break out from the pattern. On a Daily Time Frame, some of you may be able to identify the "Inside Bars". At this moment, market watchers will be asking this Golden Question - Is it breaking UP or breaking DOWN? One group of traders I know, we call them the breakout traders. They will place their Buy/Sell Stop Orders a certain price outside the two trendlines and anticipate to get in to catch the move, either up or down it doesn't matter to them. There are another group of traders who are directional, they do their analysis and "place their bet" on buying or selling the market according to their market bias. They get the best entry price but at the same time, they are exposing to the risks that are far more worst if the market goes against them. What I prefer is to wait and anticipate where price is heading and identify its turning points. Using methods such as Harmonics Patterns and Supply Demand, I am able to mark out the price area that price is likely going to turn, and it is at these areas that I am interested to take my trades to protect myself as i have a good risk management. Which are the best methods? There is no right or wrong answer, I recommend to choose the right strategy that suits your personality and your lifestyle. Do like, share and follow me for more analysis like this. We believe in sharing and build a conducive environment for all traders.
Education
by TradeEye
Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Full history from GenesisOfficially Bitcoin trading began in July 2010 with MT.GOX, but this was only the first dedicated exchange. Before this however Bitcoin was exchanged for goods as well as money on a peer-to-peer basis. The two transactions I know of where Bitcoins were exchanged for other currencies or commodities (lol) are shown here. The first ever transaction was famously sent on 12 Jan 2009 by Satoshi Nakamoto to Hal Finney but these 10 Bitcoins were sent free of charge and therefore NOT exchanged. The Malmi Transaction is recorded here www.blockchain.com
BNC:BLXEducation
by RealMcafee
5
95% WINRATE STRATEGY? (MUST WATCH!) PART 3/3There’s a better way to do things. I don’t care what you’re using, maybe, just maybe, there’s a way to improve your strategy. I can confirm this idea is seen as wildly offensive. Ask someone why their strategy works and they’ll cringe like you just asked them if their spouse is cheating. “How dare you question their effectiveness! I’ll let you know we have a long history together and I love them very much.” I’m sure you do, but have you noticed some of the warning signs? They’re all right there in front of you. It may not feel good when I ask, but if the signs are there and 3/4ths of marriages fail, it wouldn’t sit well with me if I didn’t speak up just to keep you comfy cozy. Analogies aside, your “spouse” is your strategy. The warning sign is that you keep on losing trades, blaming your loses on “volatility” without wanting to admit what the real problem is. Perhaps you’re still green for now, just wait for a larger sample size of a trade history. Much like your imaginary marriage, the odds are wildly against you. Why do you think 95 plus percent of traders fail? You can massage data however you like, the problem is at some point you decided to stop improving because you got confident.
Education
by DadShark
1
NIETZCHE AND TRADING PSYCHOLOGY, (MUST WATCH!)If you're a middle school basketball star, do you cry when you skin your knees after getting fouled when you chose to play street ball in downtown Detroit? No, because you should have known what you were getting into, and if you do cry, all the street ballers will tear you to shreds. If you don't want to play street ball and learn to play like everyone else does, go back to your middle school basketball court. If you can't understand why you keep getting hurt trading crypto and are unwilling to adopt the winning fighting style, go back to trading securities. Winners don't need to play by the rules of "golden standard" of TA. What if the "golden standard" is only so because they're tools that make you predictable for people who know better? If you have the masses all trading the same information, that makes for predictable moves. Predictable traders make for a predictable market. A predictable market makes for a profitable market. The only reason you've been given the "golden standard" is to provide liquidity for those with more buying power, resources, knowledge, experience and connections than you. 95% of retail traders lose money, so if you’re watching this, that probably includes you. What matters is that you take steps to learn rather than keep throwing money down the drain. Market manipulation in crypto exists, and with respect to trading, it’s not that it’s good or fair so much that it just is and you have to play the game as it is rather than what you may want it to be. There are ways to do that, and we’re confident we have one of them. It’s worth noting for the record that other markets have manipulation too. Just less egregious amounts of the kinds you’ll find on the list on the Wikipedia article for market manipulation. If you've found this info useful, dive into the links below.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by DadShark
11