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Intermarket Bitcoin - Breakthrough or Failure?Intermarket Analysis is great for finding out if there is going to be a trend change or a trend reversal. Today we will look at multiple intermarket relationships that BTC is interacting with to try and decide if we are going to break the downtrend, or retest the sloping resistance and fail. So let’s first start with BTC. Here you can see that we are coming up on the resistance in the RSI already, and we should see either a failure or a breakthrough in the coming days. We will then be monitoring the sloping price trend line and see what happens there. We could stop here, or we could see if there are any other trend line ratios that could give us hints towards the question - breakthrough or failure. The goal of the exercise is to use a weight of the evidence approach. If BTC breaks through in more ratios than it fails in, we will assume a trend change from bearish back to bullish. Here is what we will look at: 1. BTCUSD/SPX500USD 2. BTCUSD/COPPER 3. BTCUSD/VIX 4. BTCUSD/BTC.D These will all be added in the comments with the final total being updated as we have more price data. Happy Trading!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by derzzycharts
5
SPX needs Bitcoin/Crypto to go parabolic more than SPX to......SPX needs Bitcoin/Crypto to go parabolic more than SPX to break out of ATH. CAVEAT - small sample size. NOT ADVICE DYOR. Used Blue Verticals From Analysis Of SPX Below Max healthy pullback in this analysis <7% from ATH . Max danger if market drops >9.89%. NOT ADVICE DYOR Construction Details:- All verticals where Histogram >0 but trending down i.e. light green. All horizontals are previous highs before histogram started trending down. Blue vertical indicates where price subsequently broke through two horizontal supports. Green diagonals oddly both equal roughly same percentage rise.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Felix000
Understanding Risk/Reward through Bitcoin's CME Futures GapsIf you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight. In this post, I will be explaining the concept of the Risk/Reward Ratio, also known as the RRR, and the significance of this idea when it comes to trading. I will also be explaining how this can be applied to Bitcoin's CME Futures Chart on the daily, in regards to gaps. Analysis - To begin with, Bitcoin's CME Futures chart shows a huge gap leading down to 9.6k - Unfortunately, this gap is yet to be filled. - Given that 99% of gaps that have been created get filled some time in the future, it's likely that this gap will fill as well - However, solely approaching the chart from the perspective of gaps has its limitations - For instance, the gap at 11.4k took almost a year to fill. - As such, gaps don't provide us with a specified time frame as a reference - Should we fill the gap right now, and bounce at gap support, that would be a 7% move downwards from the current price - Should we see a stronger bearish price movement that extends below the price gap, we could see a 15% move downwards based on support levels - The gap support at 8.8k converges with the descending trend line support on the weekly, as well as the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement support (refer to our previous analysis) - As such, it's reasonable to conclude that a bearish price movement over 15% is less probable. - On the bright side, it's also important to note that there are some gaps above the current price, indicating potentiality for bullishness - There is a wide gap at 10.5k levels, and another one at 11.4k - Given this information, we can estimate our risk/reward when entering a position at current levels - Splitting our entries into three different levels, we can: 1. Enter at the current price of 10.2k 2. Dollar Cost Average (DCA) at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement support at 9.4k 3. Enter at gap support around 8.8k - This way, we know that our risk is limited, and that the upside remains huge, due to the overall trend being bullish. - Based on significant support and resistance levels, a trader would then calculate his stop loss target and take profit targets according to his risk appetite. Conclusion The trend is your friend. While the short term trend may appear bullish, it could be said that the overall trend for the long term remains bullish. As such, it would be better to look for spot/long entries near support. Don't predict the market. Take it by levels, and play by probabilities. - Michael Wang-
CME:BTC1!Education
by Michael_Wang_Official
13 Recommendations for Traders1. You should not expect that the loss-making trades will ultimately lead to a reversal and profit. You should not build up a position on it, proving to yourself that you are right. The best solution would be to exit the position and accept your losses, as they are inevitable in stock trading. 2. Stop loss and take profit should be based on the market situation, not financial opportunities. If you need to set a stop longer than your deposit allows, the trade should be canceled. 3. Entry and exit points should be objectively justified. 4. Do not enter the market during the high volatility period - the pursuit of the large profits does not always end as a trader would like to. 5. Not all bear market strategies are bullish. 6. A canceled buy signal may be a sell signal as well as vice versa. 7. It is always easier to lose money than to make money on trading. 8. If the response to the news does not instantaneously appear on the market, perhaps it will follow in the future and will have more serious consequences. 9. To increase the likelihood of a successful trade, it is necessary to enter it with a little delay and exit it without waiting for the change in the profitable movement. 10. When a crowd enters into a trade it is time to exit. 11. If you have a feeling of anxiety you should close the trade and continue trading keeping a cool head. 12. Success is a prosperous series, not a single trade. 13. If the series of losing trades are going on, it is worth to take a break. This will allow you to gather your thoughts and, possibly, turn the tide. Best regards EXCAVO
Education
by EXCAVO
20
Bitcoin $18,000/$24,000 or $28,000/$38,000. See the stats.Rule 1 = 3 green Mac's rising Rule 2 = Rule 1 trend broken (green vertical) Rule 3 = Rule 2 followed red Mac. Statistic since Jul 2015 every closing week break out from the high of Rule 2 resulted in a near 50% to 100% increase in price. Therefore, break out from $12,065 could hit $18,000 or $24,000. Then once weeks closing price price breaks $19,175 could hit $28,000 or $38,000. KEY (3 green MAC's = MACD source code HI, CL, LO) CAVEAT - very small sample size. NOT ADVICE. DYOR. DRAG CHART ABOVE TO THE RIGHT TO SEE CLOSE UP
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Felix000
2
The difference - Double Top & Head and ShouldersHello my friend | Welcome Back. Please support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful. *** What Is Double Top and Bottom? Double top and bottom patterns are chart patterns that occur when the underlying investment moves in a similar pattern to the letter "W" (double bottom) or "M" (double top). Double top and bottom analysis is used in technical analysis to explain movements in a security or other investment, and can be used as part of a trading strategy to exploit recurring patterns. $$$ What Is a Head And Shoulders Pattern? A head and shoulders pattern is a chart formation that appears as a baseline with three peaks, the outside two are close in height and the middle is highest. In technical analysis, a head and shoulders pattern describes a specific chart formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal. The head and shoulders pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend reversal patterns. It is one of several top patterns that signal, with varying degrees of accuracy, that an upward trend is nearing its end.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Saeed966
8
Risk management in trading €$¥Hello my friend | Welcome Back. Please support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful. *** What is market risk? Market risk is the capacity for your trades to result in losses due to unfavourable price movements that affect the market as a whole. There are several factors that can cause market risk, but movement in any of the following can exert major pressure: Stock prices Interest rates Foreign exchange rates Commodity prices What is liquidity risk? Liquidity risk is the possibility that you may be forced to trade an asset at a worse price than you anticipated. For example, when trying to sell an illiquid stock you may struggle to find a buyer, meaning that you have to sell your stock for less than its current market value. In some markets, liquidity risk can even mean that your trade negatively affects the price of the asset you are buying or selling. This is generally more of an issue in emerging or low-volume markets, where there may not be enough people in the market to trade with. How to manage your risk Risk management is the process of identifying, analysing and reducing risk in your trading decisions. Usually, it involves developing a trading plan that helps you decide what to trade, when to trade and where to place your stop losses. Here are three tips on how to manage risk: 1. Assess risk vs return In general, trading strategies focus on weighing up a trade’s potential risk against its potential return. If a trade has greater risk, it should carry the chance of a greater return to make that risk worthwhile. For example, government bonds are considered a safe, low-risk investment – but when compared to corporate bonds, they offer lower rates of return. This is because the risk of investing in a corporate bond is higher, so to compensate for the added risk investors are offered a higher rate of return. 2. Understand each market’s risks It’s important to ensure you understand the factors that influence different markets, so you can base your dealing strategies on relevant information. Improve your success rate by learning more about the markets you’re dealing on and exploring new strategies. Our trading skills section is a great place to learn about all the markets we offer. 3. Keep learning Learning to trade successfully while managing your risk is a continual process – and one of the best ways of ensuring that you are always improving is by starting a trading diary. By keeping track of which trades and strategies have worked in the past, you can build on your successes and learn from your failures.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Saeed966
6
Ascending Channel & Descending ChannelHello my friend | Welcome Back. Please support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful. *** One of the best methods of technical analysis at the beginning is to know the direction where it is heading Including the ascending channel and the descending channel pattern When drawing an ascending or descending channel, the tops of the bottoms are greater than the peaks and bottoms behind them, and usually there are three peaks or troughs, and then the break comes after To properly draw the pattern, link the tops and bottoms of each other so that the pattern is formed This in a nutshell
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Saeed966
10
BTC: How to Trade BTC Right Now - Smart and Disciplined StrategyHere we would like to suggest to you a breakout strategy that we know that can bring guaranteed profits for any trader. This is the most safest strategy that bring the highest rewards, lower risk, and still expose you to the market in a time of volatility. First things first, making a position with zero discipline is a recipe for disaster. We all would like to take a position right now and hope that it will go the anticipated direction of our long or short. No one knows where the market will be heading to, and although the market is in a considerably bullish state, it doesn't mean that it will just shoot straight (although we love for it too!). The best possible way to approach the current rising wedge we are seeing at the moment, is to make sure and buy or sell on the BREAKOUT. The breakout doesn't mean, "it's breaking out, I should get in!". It's simply, a retest of the breakout. A retest of the breakout almost ALWAYS occurs unless there is some kind of anomaly in price action (impulse wave) - but even this, is always followed up with some form of follow up pullback. Another interesting thing is we are trading below the legacy trendline from the log chart on the daily: Please let us know, are you bullish or bearish?!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
10
Bitcoin set to smash ATH in the next 8 to 12 WKS thanks to......Astronomical returns possible: Bitcoin set to smash ATH in the next 8 to 12 WKS thanks to "Big Oil" signal after SPX setting ATH's >> WK 16 DEC 19 63% 8 WKS >> WK 25 SEPT 18 437% 11 WKS >> WK 28 JAN 13 1383% 10 WKS. The only time signal did not work was when bitcoin MACD histogram was in red. CAVEAT: WTI Crude Oil Weekly MACD line (source HIGH) has not yet closed >0. Big Oil signal still needs to confirm. NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
TVC:USOILEducation
by Felix000
BTC: Market Cycle Psychology - Where Are We on the Timeline?Bitcoin is currently at crossroads for the adjusted market cycle psychology theory. As we were not able to secure 12K, it seems like the bears have taken control for the short term; however, Bitcoin is argued by many that we may be on to new highs. Keeping in mind with our incredible recovery from the COVID19 crash, is this merely a bull trap? We have seen a 200%+ return within a short amount of time and we are not too sure if this trend will continue. If Bitcoin is able to keep this recovery rate going, we will need an incredible amount of volume and power not only from large institutions, but the general public on a global scale - but we aren't seeing any evidence for that when we pull up the Google Trends keyword, "Bitcoin." We continuously see smaller bull and bear cycles within on our timeline, which can be a good or bad thing. With that being said, our continued advice for all traders is to wait for the clear break down or breakout to the upside. For all we know, we may be increasingly on a sideways cycle which may suggest further evidence for the lengthening market cycle theory. We would love to know your thoughts in the comments below! Trade Safe. X Force.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
8
The Only Trading Strategy You Will Ever Need - How to Trade!Here is a clear representation of the X Force trading strategy that requires only one thing from every trader out there: discipline. Now, the most important question that new traders entering the market is, "when should I buy?" If you look at Bitcoin, or even the NASDAQ, Dow Jones Industrial Average, you will note that all of these charts have one thing in common when looked on the monthly time frame: it's a never ending BULL market. As a human, we all have emotions attached to the market which in return creates the whole market psychology of trading - this is why we as humans love trying to maximize what we have in our pockets by trying to trade the small swings from day to day. With that being said, we have simplified trading into the most simplified, easy strategy that even the most advanced traders can take note of this. The market cycle is simply divided into three phases: 1. Bull market - In the bull market, you want to of course be in a position if you are considering spot buying. We never recommend leveraged to a rookie trader. 2. Neutral (consolidation) - This is considered an accumulation phase where buyers and sellers will try to establish common grounds for price, most notably at previous resistance turned support. 3. Bear market - The most unruly of all and is emotionally factored in most, if not all trades. A bear trend is usually followed by a blowoff top after a bull market. A lot of external factors and catalysts such as a global recession or strong driven news will take into play for a bull market. While Bitcoin is now about to retest certain levels of resistance, it's important that this may be a time to buy if you are a swing trader, and enter upon another breakout in preparation for a new bull market cycle. In the case of a failed break, this can just be another continuation of the consolidation phase we have mentioned and drawn above in our charts. Trade Safe. X Force.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
Bitcoin (BTC) vs. US Dollar Index (DXY) - BTC Drop Incoming?X Force provides quality content provided by experienced traders who would like to make charting more simple for the general public. If you love our content, please make sure to give us a 'like', we would highly appreciate it! The US Dollar and Bitcoin price correlation is almost sinisterly close to each other when we count the bull and bear runs from the years 2017-2018. Bitcoin and the US dollar has been almost playing opposite of each other, where if one rises higher, the other goes lower, and vice versa when we see opposite price action occurring simultaneously. We have drawn a clear map of what we have observed from those years and why the US dollar might be potentially seeing a bounce from current levels (or slightly lower) and also see a retrace for Bitcoin. In addition, this can be a rather healthy thing for Bitcoin to do once we see the retrace occur because we still have a void at 9.7K for the CME Gap. There are a few things to consider when we look at Bitcoin's price action. For example, one of the most important visual observations we can make at the time of writing is that Bitcoin is heavily diverted away from the US dollar price. We are seeing a massive drop in the US dollar possibly due to many geopolitical factors such as the presidential elections, COVID 19, and many more issues. As the US dollar is heavily sensitive to price action since it is a global currency, Bitcoin has more or less remained as a store of value asset for many - and profit taking is always going to take place at crucial levels. Another factor that we have to keep in mind on why we might see Bitcoin retrace from current or slightly higher levels, is that the US dollar has always historically been great at respecting major support levels. Technical reasoning behind the above chart: 1. From the years 2017-2018, we have seen Bitcoin rise parabolically, and the US dollar to drop. 2. From the years 2018-2020, we have seen Bitcoin do small cycles of bear and bull runs, while the US dollar remained a steady rise (this can be known as the consolidation phase). 3. The COVID19 crash has essentially made the US dollar rise incredibly fast, while the Bitcoin's price dropped massively. 4. The current bull run on Bitcoin is now making the US dollar value go down. What we can speculate: Bitcoin may be very close to seeing a retrace due to the US dollar dropping rapidly fast. We would assume that since the US dollar index has been respecting minor and major support levels, we would assume that Bitcoin's price would also retrace as the US dollar rises temporarily. We also believe that in conjunction with our previous theory on CME Gaps, we believe BTC has one more opportunity to fill the void at 9.7K, where the CME gap still remains unfilled. Here is a previous editor's choice post that we have done on CME gaps, and why we think the CME gap might fill:
TVC:DXYEducation
by XForceGlobal
14
Bitcoin: Two Possible Scenarios Simplified (How To Trade)X Force provides quality content provided by experienced traders who would like to make charting more simple for the general public. If you love our content, please make sure to give us a 'like', we would highly appreciate it. Bitcoin is currently painting two different possible scenarios and we would like to break down both the bullish and bearish case via easy technical patterns that everyone can understand. Bullish Ascending Triangle: - Bullish ascending triangle usually means Bitcoin might be in a continuation pattern and continue a measured move up to newer highs. - The pattern completes itself when price breaks out of the triangle in the direction of the overall trend. - This pattern indicates that buyers are more aggressive than sellers as price continues to make higher lows. - A breakout and retest of the upper trend line is considered a BUY signal by bulls. Bearish Rising (Parallel) Channel: - An upward Price channel pattern occurs when the price makes a series of lower lows followed by a series of lower highs. Typically the price should be contained inside the lines that connect these highs and lows. - This is usually considered a consolidation phase and pressure will be put on top of the channel by sellers, and buyers on the lower. - A Rising Parallel Channel usually leads to a breakdown, which is considered the SELL signal. Trade Safe. X Force.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
Bitcoin: Understanding CME Gaps - A Full Perspective and GuideX Force Global Analysis: If you find our analysis to be helpful, make sure to support us by dropping a ‘like’ ------ In this analysis, we take a look at Bitcoin's rather peculiar tendency to fill CME gaps. What are CME gaps, and why do they occur? First of all, Bitcoin does not trade 24/7 on one specific market, which is the CME market. This means that at a certain point in the day, the market closes and trading stops altogether - just like in traditional stock markets. When looking at these CME gaps, an investor might conclude that they will be filled quickly within the next few days. And based on this reason alone, many traders will take a long or short position based on the gaps produced. If a gap is produced while price is moving up rapidly, a trader might conclude on taking a short position with the notion that the gap will eventually fill. While this is fundamentally true and a good trade setup because gaps have traditionally filled 100% of the time via Bitcoin's history, it can be still dangerous if the trader does not know how to execute the trade properly, especially if the trader is in a leveraged position. A basic understanding of major trend shifts, then taking CME gaps into the trader's strategy is a recipe for success. From a technical stand point, when a gap appears within the charts, it removes the immediate support or resistance and creates the tendency for most traders to notice this, which may be the reason why the new tradition of 'gap filling' has been a part of Bitcoin's price action since the introduction of the CME market. Either way, if price action moves further away from the gap, the higher probability of a stronger drop/pump will be, which may or may be bad for both bulls and bears. For our viewers sake, we have done the calculations to show 2019's high to current price on how long it has taken to fill. The average has been 63 days. Will Bitcoin's CME gap be filled before we reach new highs? Or will we see the gap fill, then run towards new highs? We leave that up to you. How to trade CME Gaps? Trading CME Gaps can be very tricky, especially if you take a position too early. As we have stated earlier, all of Bitcoin's CME gaps have been filled 100% of the time. This current gap we are seeing may be no different. It's a matter of WHEN, not IF. With that being said, the best possible way to trade this is to understand basic support and resistances. We are currently facing strong resistance at 12K, and if broken, we face the possibility of a longer wait time for the gap to be filled. This can be a good or bad thing: Good: BTC will be breaking major legacy resistances, and show sign of growth in the immediate future. Bad: BTC will be further deviated away from the current CME gap below major psychological resistance at 10K, and may further put bulls in disparity once the gap does fill. Bitcoin has retested major trend support technically twice, and it may desirable to retest it a third time before we can show true strength in BTC's trend. This can mean a longer accumulation phase and an possible impulse waves that will make Bitcoin's drop more severe based on our CME gap theory. Trade Safe. X Force.
Editors' picks
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
42