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Wyckoff basics explainedGoing back to the 18th of March where we called the Buyers Climax top for Bitcoin's "Wyckoff" Distribution phase. We have had a lot of questions regarding the technique. It's a very difficult one to put into only one post - but to understand Wyckoff methodology you need to first APPRECIATE what Wyckoff is about. History Richard Demille Wyckoff (November 2, 1873 – March 7, 1934) was an American stock market investor, and the founder and onetime editor of the Magazine of Wall Street. Wyckoff implemented his methods of technical analysis of the financial markets (the study of charts showing movements of stock-prices and other data). He grew his wealth such that he eventually owned nine and a half acres and a mansion next door to the Hamptons estate of General Motors president Alfred Sloan in Great Neck, New York. As Wyckoff became wealthier, he also became altruistic about the public's Wall Street experience. He turned his attention and passion to education, teaching, and in publishing exposes such as “Bucket Shops and How to Avoid Them”, which were run in New York's The Saturday Evening Post starting in 1922. Jump forward - too much detail for one post to cover. Wyckoff's research claimed many common characteristics among the greatest winning stocks and market campaigners of the time. He believed he had analyzed and determined where risk and reward were optimal for trading. He emphasized the placement of stop-losses at all times, the importance of controlling the risk of any particular trade. Wyckoff also has techniques he believed offered advantages when markets were rising or falling (bullish and bearish). The Wyckoff technique may provide some insight as to how and why professional interests buy and sell securities, while evolving and scaling their market campaigns with concepts such as the "Composite Operator". Wyckoff offered a detailed analysis of the "trading range", a posited ideal price bracket for buying or selling a stock. One tool that Wyckoff provides is the concept of the composite operator. Simply, Wyckoff felt that an experienced judge of the market should regard larger market trends as the expression of a single mind. He felt that it was an important psychological and tactical advantage to stay in harmony with this omnipotent player. Wyckoff believed investors would be better prepared to grow their portfolios and net worth by following in his footsteps. The LOGIC Applying this concept in a chart you can identify market phases and cycles - here's the snapshot from a daily BTC move. This relates to one of 4 (master patterns)this particular known as distribution schematic 1. **For the others you can see in the PDF linked below;** Phases - Simplified In this distribution schematic example (literally from Wednesday's BTC exit of the range) you will be able to identify a Buyers Climax (BC) from here, the assumption is that the composite man (strong hand operators) are taking profits - Money flow leaving, this causes an Automatic Reaction (AR). Now many retail traders will assume, this is another pullback (failing to identify the BC) if their on a very small time frame (and many retail traders are operating on lower time frames) then the assumption would be "buy the dip" and for a little while they are correct, we often see this (ST) move up but, this usually fails to go higher than the (BC). Composite man is in control This game is what many retail traders refer to as "Market Manipulation" - whilst the reality is, there is an identifiable pattern. Human beings are greedy, fearful and outright stupid at times. This allows for the perfect schematic to play itself out as the composite man accumulated or in the Bitcoin move Distribute. Here's an example from an older post I did walking through the psychology on a chart. You will see how price action in inextricably linked with the moves caused by the players "you & me" in the market. Later phases of this structure The general idea is for the composite man to accumulate or distribute to obtain a better position for himself, taking the market one way and the other. Often at times, retail will do the last couple of steps among themselves. Although the strong hands are often hedging positions, it is not always required to have their participation as the phases move on inside the structure. As we see a Sign Of Weakness (SOW) - the retail traders would have now seen a lower high and a lower low (logic) However from the (SOW) we move almost impulsively to the Upthrust (UT) the "bulltrap" to many newer traders. At this stage of the post, you might be starting to see inside how the manipulation works? Next phase Range bound - in true Wyckoff terms this region inside the schematic is known as phase B. We chop up and down and eventually create a new higher high. Again in Bitcoin's case we see the ATH. Known as the (UTAD) to Wyckoffian's - Up Thrust After Distribution. This is the climax and from here we see the price breaking down until we anticipate the exit of the range. On @TradingView We have also developed a pretty cool indicator to use one buy and one sell for Wyckoff schematics in particular. You can see how it fits inside the schematic. The logic can easily be assessed and broken down into small parts, step by step. And therefore, if it's something we can program. It is something you can learn. Here is the free link to the other Wyckoff Schematics - drive.google.com Hope you enjoyed this short intro to Wyckoff - see the previous video posts for live Wyckoff overlay examples. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
290
Wyckoff Basics part 2After my last educational wyckoff post - I had a lot of comments, questions and so on. The idea was to post the basics and show the concept - there has been a lot of the overlay, breakdown and other people jumping on this. It was a move we called on the 18th of March (see the "they blew up the rocket" post). In terms of some simple education, Wyckoff is deep and possibly too deep for newer traders. What I was trying to highlight was the existence of such techniques. In part one; I only covered the point of how the distribution phase was playing out in Bitcoin. In this post, I will share some additional depth - for those of you already familiar with Wyckoff techniques you already have this. So we are not covering here (volume, how to identify or any of the more advanced stuff or terms like creeks or mark-ups and downs) Just another simple intro to the basics & a step up from post one. So if you have not seen the first post; check it out here by clicking the image. 4 Major types of schematics The Accumulation and Distribution Schematics are a major part of Wyckoff’s work, These schematics are broken down into 2 patterns for accumulation and 2 for distribution. These sections are then divided into five Phases (A to E), along with multiple Wyckoff Events - we will cover this later. Distribution schematics So in the previous post & it was fortuitous that Bitcoin was a near textbook example of the distribution schematic #1. The second type of distribution schematic looks like this; As you can see, there are a lot of similarities & it can be confusing, but this is where it's best to dig deeper into the concept, why volume plays a big part in Wyckoff techniques and gain an understanding of the naming convention for each of the events inside. ** We have a naming convention key below ** Accumulation As well as distribution you also have accumulation and this also has 2 (major) schematics; #1 And #2 ====================================================================================================================================== Key; The first phase or ways to identify a schematic forming is with what is called a PS (Accumulation) or PSY (distribution) - this is basically the change of character as the trend moves towards a schematic; Preliminary Support (PS) and Preliminary Supply (PSY). The first significant reaction that occurs after a prolonged rally that indicates budding supply showing up. You then have a BC or SC - buyer climax / sellers Climax; the obvious BC in an uptrend suggesting institutional operators cashing out. and the inverse with the SC. The next major event is the AR - Automatic reaction (rally) - The reaction that occurs after a Buying Climax. It occurs without previous preparation, hence the word “automatic.” and in layman terms it's the exit of large positions after a climax (SC and BC) event. ST next - this is a second test (ST) A name given by Wyckoff to the reaction following Automatic Rally, (or rally following the Automatic reaction.) If that test is associated with small range and light volume — it increases the likelihood that the previous trend is over. Next a move down if it is accumulation would be a SOW - this is "Sign of Weakness" and inverse we have SOS "Sign of strength" In distribution - you then have two major differences over the accumulation schematic; UT = Up Thrust and a UTAD = UP Thrust after Distribution. For distribution you have a spring, think of this like the last drop before moving up rapidly out of a schematic on the Bullish side. You then have "Test" phases usually of the support and resistance levels (zones) created by the schematic as shown in the images above. And finally you have LPSY for distribution Last Point of Supply - A point at the end of the process of distribution where the Composite Man (Large operators) recognizes that demand forces have exhausted themselves and it is safe to start marking down prices. Last Point of Support (LPS) which is the accumulation equivalent - A point at the end of the process of accumulation where the large operators recognizes that supply forces have exhausted themselves and it is safe to start marking up prices. This is still only the basics, not looking at phases or volume or anything else yet. It's worth going away and studying this in a little more detail to get familiar with the concepts and terminology and in the next post I will cover the phases. ======================================================================================================================================= I know a lot of you readers are here purely for the crypto/BTC calls made - and another logical reason we are still liking a slow move down at this level, comes in the current DXY situation. See this post below as to the current situation there. (the relevance might be small - But understanding the forces at work, with DXY to BTC. Is actually useful). Shorter term strength = will aid BTC slow moves. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:XLMUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
23
Elliot Waves Complete Guide | Chapter 3.6 - "Triple Three"Hello Traders. Welcome to Chapter 3.6, THE FINAL SUB CHAPTER! You made it this far, congratulations, you have learned a lot of the basic and complex patterns. We are going to finish this sub-chapter with the final complex correction pattern called the "Triple Three" pattern, which is VERY similar to the double three! Chapter 3 Glossary: 3.1 Zig-Zag Waves 3.2 Flat Correction , Expanded Flat 3.3 Running Flat, Contracting Triangle 3.4 Barrier Triangle, Expanded Triangle 3.5 Double-Three 3.6 Triple-Three ----- Triple-Three Bear with me here, we are almost full finished with the complexity of correction patterns. As the final sub-chapter, I would like to make sure most people understand the double three correction. The triple three correction is very similar to the double three, it is just even more elongated and extended. The overall count is W,X,Y,X,Z, so the three simple corrections are separated by two "X" waves. Just like the double three pattern, these "X" waves are usually zig-zags, but can take any form, which is why it makes these consolidation patterns so messy. A triangle is only valid as wave Z and therefore represents the end of the correction. As with the double three, the variation displayed only shows some possible forms of a correction. In general the three simple corrective pattern can take any shape (Flat, zig-zag, triangle - REMEMBER TO KNOW WHAT THEY ARE), but usually show alternation between themselves in any given form. A final notice about corrections: Most traders lose money in these long sideways corrections as the market does not present a clear trend. Trading in a sideways market is about surviving the markets, not profiting. It is usually full of false breakouts and messy price action. The experience shows, that most of the time it is the best decision to stay out of the market until a clear entry signal is given. That is why the triple three is such a powerful tool. In some cases a clear ranging market (especially on higher timeframe) can be traded, but this is only for experienced traders. If anything, this is a time to accumulate. Remember, you must understand the basics of all the correction patterns. If you aren't even sure of the basic correction patterns, make sure to start from chapter 1!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
17
Regardless of the skill levelAs a mentor - I try to get the message over so regardless of the level of skill you have or anyone in the @TradingView community has there will be nuggets of information that are digestible, simple to understand and a little fun along the way. The issue you have with such a broad community, is there are all types of traders here. When I have written something a bit more complex I have had "I don't get it" or DM's asking to explain more. - you can't please everybody all of the time. When I have left it to the bare minimum - even included "basic" or "introduction" in the title - I get, "this is not right, you forgot this, that or the other" or comments like "your doing it wrong" - we are in the age of the keyboard warrior. So the best way to simplify the message and deliver material that's broad enough for the masses, is by simplifying the info and adding enough technical nuggets to at least start the journey into the topic of the post. Obviously, without a post being 400 pages long. It is also nion-impossible to give enough without giving too much. When I wrote the Simpsons post. It was taking something (not too complex) but complex for some, and adding the emotional states we have all experienced. The tired bull - Was actually playing on the BTC short call from March and some logic for the call. This was from the "why people invest in crypto" post - and it's idea is to show the similarities to the Vegas gold hunters, one spin of the roulette table & the expectation of one win! When I have gone into more depth in posts like Buying the dips, Gann Fan tutorial or even the most recent Wyckoff one. You can see it will be daunting for newer traders. So I have tried to find a happy medium and adding a little fun to the charts along the way. Recently in Crypto we have seen Social influencers such as Elon Musk and Paris Hilton say and post all kind of things. The issue is, and the point of this post. Is you need to do your own due diligence, you need to deploy proper risk management & get your own psychology in check. I am seeing and hearing of some crazy issues, caused by nobody but the trader themselves - over leveraging. Trading is a long term skill, not a one hit win at the casino! When in a community like this - nobody benefits from negativity. If your happy fighting the keyboard, take a little time to go and add some content you find helpful for others. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
23
Trading psychology and a story of history repeating itself.Take a look at the chart above. Now take a look at this one. And now take a look at this one. There’s something that all three of these charts have in common and it might not be what you think it is. I'll add before going further that this is probably going to be my most crapped-on post here but it is what it is. I want to talk about the problem of winning early. During the COVID crash, millionaires were made. Millionaires were also destroyed. In more cases than you may imagine, millionaires were made and then destroyed. During the crash, there were a bunch of savvy investors who profited greatly off of the collapse of the stock market over the course of a month. A huge part of this was due to options and the magnified returns that can be possible with them. During the crash, this became even more possible. See, while AMEX:SPY was shitting itself over the course of a month, implied volatility exploded across essentially every options chain that existed in the market. Normally, to be successful with options trading you have to have at least some kind of comprehension of how the underlying math works behind building a position. You have to have at least *some* comprehension of the Greeks. During this period, you needed none of that. You could buy a $150 strike put expiring tomorrow at the beginning of March and by market close you’d 10x your initial investment. It was definitionally free money if you were able to capture it and get in early enough. This led to a huge influx of people jumping into the market because they were hearing their friends just buying puts like crazy. r/wallstreetbets started becoming more and more popular during this time as options use on Robinhood exploded and more and more people started piling in for the free money. After all, if the friend you have who flips burgers just made $1,000 in options why couldn’t you? Tons of inexperienced traders jumped in and made a lot of money. Then the bottom happened. Volume started to die out, the bleeding stopped, the Fed ramped up their unlimited QE operations, and the market stabilized. What’s more, implied volatility slowly started to creep down. New entrants into the “easy money” market who were very successful were convinced it was a fake-out. They were POSITIVE that there was no way this was a real bottom. COVID was still rampant, countries were still shutting down, and in this case they were correct. COVID was nowhere near finished. Now more than a year later, we’re still dealing with it in many ways and the world is far from being “back to normal”. What they were wrong on, however, was that the market would continue to care. The truth of the matter was that none of these new entrants had any clue what they were talking about. None of them had any concept of even what the market’s current valuation of specific assets even meant in the context of COVID. There was no talk of gauging the actual value of stocks against projected success in sustaining COVID. There was no concept of the market being “forward thinking” in terms of how it allocates capital. It was just all “this is bullshit, there’s no way this it the bottom” and reams and reams of conspiratorial tweets and posts about “the coming leg down”. It was all bullshit, the market bottomed, big money was now hunting for bargains because it assumed that COVID would pass and the market would recover. In addition to this, implied volatility also started to drop. Just buying random options in the general direction you thought the market might go became less and less of a winning strategy. Soon, people were losing their shirts on big bets using money they made during the drop. People were bearish to the point of insolvency. They fought the trend instead of going with it and they kept with a losing options strategy because they used to make money doing it. The amount of money won and lost by retail during the months of March, April, May and June was astronomical. There’s something that happens to a person when they discover something new, try it out, and become immediately successful at it. There’s a trigger in our brains that leads us to assume that we’re successful because we’ve just discovered some nascent talent that we never knew we had. Instead of looking at ourselves as lucky, we look at ourselves as imbued with innate knowledge that is guiding us toward success. After all, look at your account balance. That doesn’t just happen on its own. This becomes so much worse in something like the stock market (or, perhaps crypto). The stock market and finance generally are things that people are often led to believe are zones of institutional expertise. They’re things that regular people shouldn’t be involved in. Look at the math used by some quant fund. Listen to the financialized, confusing language. It looks like this monolith of expertise from the outside. Then you become successful in it and you feel like you’re one of the club or, even worse, beating the club. When we start to win after learning lessons and applying them, we train ourselves to evaluate information and apply it to something in the real world. When we start to win immediately, we train ourselves to believe that we just “know” what’s going to happen. The biggest difference between these two mentalities in my eyes is what one does when what they “know” starts to be tested and broken. With experience and time, when the play you make starts to falter because what you “know” starts to look like it’s not working out, you take losses and learn. When you win immediately and a play you make based off of what you “know” starts to falter, it’s because of some outside force “manipulating” things or because of a million other reasons. You don’t take losses and learn because there’s nothing to learn. You’re right and everyone else is wrong. Now we see this playing out again in the crypto world. Every other post seems to be about manipulation in the crypto market. Duh. Crypto is the most manipulated market on Earth. When 1,000 wallet addresses control 40% of the entire market cap of something, you don’t get to call it decentralized. It’s centralized, just in the hands of anonymous strangers or groups instead of alphabet soup agencies you can put a face to. We see new entrants to the market flooding $DOGE and $BTC, enraptured by the story behind the crypto revolution and captured by early initial success. Look at my account. It’s up 1,000% I must know what I’m doing. I can’t imagine I just now found out about this. Look at the innate knowledge I have and how I can read these markets. If the market goes down, it’s not because of anything other than people not knowing what I know. It’s going to make me sound like an asshole but it has to be said: if you are up 1,000% on an investment and you haven’t sold anything, you aren’t an investor. You’re not “beating the market”. You’re not on the vanguard of a new wave of investor shaking the establishment. You’re not “doing battle with the hedgies”. You’re a rube. Everyone starts somewhere. Unfortunately (or maybe not) for some people, that somewhere is in the middle of a period of mania leading to euphoria in a specific market sector. It’s a period where you just can’t lose money. The good ones get crushed and learn from their mistakes. They lick their wounds and decide to stick with it. I mean, the population of r/ThetaGang must have EXPLODED of the past year with people destroying themselves with options buys. The bad ones get crushed and disappear, further angered at a system that “manipulated” them out of their money. The moral of the story here is that we should all be suspicious of everything in the markets. Above everything else, we should be most suspicious of ourselves. Are we trading for the right reasons? Are we missing something? Are we really as smart as we think we are? The second you start to believe you know something the rest of the market doesn’t, well you’re screwed. Just remember that the second you look at a chart like the BTC or DOGE charts above and blindly think they look good you have turned a corner into trading on emotion or hope. What goes down isn't required to come up.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by UnknownUnicorn16914442
11
Wyckoff Price Cycle ExplainedAccording to Wyckoff, the market can be understood and anticipated through detailed analysis of supply and demand, which can be ascertained from studying price action, volume and time. As a broker, he was in a position to observe the activities of highly successful individuals and groups who dominated specific issues; consequently, he was able to decipher, via the use of what he called vertical (bar) and figure (Point and Figure) charts, the future intentions of those large interests. An idealized schematic of how he conceptualized the large interests' preparation for and execution of bull and bear markets is depicted in the figure above. The time to enter long orders is towards the end of the preparation for a price markup or bull market (accumulation of large lines of stock), while the time to initiate short positions is at the end of the preparation for price markdown.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Lzr_Fx
Trends. Correction of trends. Sure reversals and deception.Read and watch carefully. Learn to think. Opportunities do not turn into a manic-depressive syndrome due to your greed, misunderstanding of work and processes, both local and global. Shown in the graph for comparison. Today's situation is 19 05 21 ("Creativity 19") versus 13 03 21 ("Creativity 13") a similar situation in the past. Your intelligence in the right direction can make you rich if you think for yourself and control your emotions. 1) "Deceptions" in the growing trend of 2017. Playing with the psychology of desires and expectations. Simple psychology. March 2017 july 2017 september 2017 I would like to draw attention to how the expectation and disappointment of the main market participants are used here for "driving a round dance of greed". 2) "Faith that cannot be killed". Situation after the peak of 2020. 17-12-17 "Revolution". 17 12 2019 06 03 2020 3) Dump. Important decision. Manipulation before a scheduled dump. Overdid it .... 14 11 2018 16 12 2018 An "unexpected mess" with .... the main trend. Slow, subtle fix. 4) Dump before BTC halving 13 03 2020 16 03 2020 Start 2 under the stage "Crown" (CrownCode6) Closing sectors (13/3/22) Using the situation In such a situation, TA and fortune-telling (inferences due to the data of the old chart history + news background) do not matter. It is simply the desire of a very small group of players at work. How to counter and use it? Always have your own plan for different outcomes of trading situations, more likely and less. Understand what risk management is and use it in practice. Always protect your profits (the greed of the majority of those who give away does not allow this, it is used). Rise / fall. Your trading system should work in different directions. Understand the "mood of the crowd", not be among them. No emotion. Cold calculation. Projection of the above on cash earnings: 1) If you are correct the amount grows in astronomical progression. Gives new potential "For other things" 2) If you are wrong, it does not decrease significantly. Provides new potential "for development in this speculative hobby." 5) Dump before BTC halving. The trading situation is large scale. 13 03 2020 16 03 2020 "The girl did her best" ..... 6) Situation 19 05 21. The first "sabotage". 19 05 2021 2021 7) This situation is on a larger scale. 19 05 2021 2021 For those who know how to think 8) " Green Swan" . 4-6 06 2021 9) COP26. 1 11 2021 - 12 11 2021 First SHAH, then MAT.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by SpartaBTC
18
BTCUSD - 1dIf you notice that in the previous Bitcoin crash, there was a move during which the bearish move did not go above the previous candlestick, in other words, no previous candlestick broke until a long shadow candle (pin bar) was formed and Then a powerful ascending candlestick broke its previous candlestick and then an ascending movement was formed ... such movements are called micro-channel in price action ... and as you can see, a micro-channel is also formed in this fall. And we must wait for the failure of this micro-channel ...
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by mohammad_gunner
4
4 Ways to Trade Bitcoin!Hello my small TV community! Today I've prepared a chart where I will be showing you my approach to current Bitcoin price action and how I usually trade. I love to trade ranges as I have a lot success with them, not only with Crypto assets. Usually I am not opened to all four trades, (usually I just follow the trend, when the overall trend is uptrend I just look for buy opportunities) but this time it's different. Why it's different? Because Bitcoin is saying that the overall daily trend is a downtrend, meanwhile the overall weekly trend is an uptrend so I am opened to all of these four trades! Mixed signals. I only look to buy or sell at the edges of the range, I never enter a trade in the middle of the range. I wait for a better opportunity, rather than taking a bad one. (Even if it would lead to a profit!) Which one is your favorite, or which one will you be taking? Let me know.
Education
by TiborVrbovsky
3
CAKEUSDT - How to find a good CAKE entryCAKE and pancakeswap are trending hard right now, its a great defi solution that's innovative and has triple A backing in Binance. The common thought for most is, how can I get in on that profit?! One way to do it is buy low, sell high! In order to buy low, you need a good entry, luckily, I think I've found one! In todays video I go over how I find potential entries for profitable trades and apply it to CAKEUSDT === TimeStamps === 0:00 = Welcome! 0:35 = Patterns 1:20 = Fibs 5:20 = Resistances 7:30 = Price path 11:00 = Entry 12:05 = Stop limit 12:30 = Take profit 14:45 = Fundamentals 15:15 = CoinMarketCap 17:30 = Tradingview ideas 18:50 = CoinMarketCal 19:20 = r/pancakeswap
Education
by tommytoan11
Recent editor picks in one place! This post is a little different, I have recently gone back into Trading Education and mentoring and wanted to ask what kind of post or info would the community like? Here's a list of the recent editor picks; some educational content (each link you can click on to go through to the actual post) 1) Gann Fan Tutorial 2) Buying the Dips made simple 3) Simplified Elliott 4) Elliott level 2 - (not an editors pick) but goes after the Simplified Elliott) 5) Quick intro to Moving Averages 6) Simpson's walkthrough Psychology 7) This one is not an editors pick but goes into more depth around the Simpson's post 8) Trading Can be lonely 9) Not an editor pick but some books for when your lonely 10) Bart pattern - no education but had a pick for this one 11) This land is mine 12) Crypto news and updates (last week) 13) How to do fundamental analysis on altcoins Some other posts worth mentioning 🍒 COT guide - 🍒 Indicators Vs Price Action - 🍒 Using the comparison tool as indicators - 🍒 Interesting news events on BTC highs/lows - 🍒 Did you know S&P now has Crypto index's? And have you seen a Wyckoff schematic laying underneath a daily BTC chart? This is awesome! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
BITFINEX:DOGEUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
9
How to assess an altcoinWhen doing fundamental analysis into a stock or in this case a coin – you need to appreciate, it is still a company after all. So, your fundamental analysis should include, taking a deep dive into the available information. You might want to review the project use case, the team, and the money the project has raised so far. As you can’t really do technical analysis with limited data available on the charts. Your goal is to reach a conclusion on whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued. At that stage, you can use your insights to inform your trading positions. In other words, have we had a major hype & can a dump be expected? Trading assets as volatile as cryptocurrencies requires some skill. You will need to define a strategy – otherwise, you are Gambling & not trading or investing. As for Technical analysis, some expertise can be inherited from the legacy financial markets. Many new crypto traders use the same technical indicators seen in Forex, stocks, and commodities trading. You often see tools such as the RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands which seek to predict market behavior, the issue with this is the lack of data mentioned above. Yet, these technical analysis tools are also extremely popular in the cryptocurrency space. Slightly harder to read a moving average when the price is in a 90-degree move up. With cryptocurrency fundamental analysis, though the approach is similar to that used in legacy markets, you can’t really use tried-and-tested tools to assess crypto assets. To conduct a proper analysis, what we need is to understand where they (the company/Coin) derive value from. ==================================================================================================================================== For you newer traders… “What is fundamental analysis (FA)?” Fundamental analysis (FA) is an approach used by investors and traders to establish the "intrinsic value" of an asset or business or in this case, crypto. By looking at a number of internal and external factors, their main goal is to determine whether said asset or business is overvalued or undervalued. They can then leverage that information to strategically enter or exit positions. The goal of this article is not to dive into the methods of FA as a whole, rather just to highlight where you should begin. ==================================================================================================================================== However, there are problems with crypto fundamental analysis (in the traditional sense) Cryptocurrency networks can't really be assessed through the same lens as traditional businesses. If anything, the more decentralized offerings like Bitcoin (BTC) are closer to commodities. But even with the more centralized cryptocurrencies (such as those issued by organizations), traditional FA indicators can't tell us much. So now we are stuck between a rock and a hard place… A quick step would be to identify strong metrics, these should not really take into account things like Twitter or Facebook followers. It’s so easy these days to buy several thousand followers for social media sites. One method could be; the number of active addresses on a blockchain and see that it has been sharply increasing? For example… Are we seeing Company actors transferring money back and forth to themselves with new addresses each time? This is the level of info you can go down to – we are on the Blockchain after all. A little more TECHNICAL If you want to get a bit more technical – you can look at “On-Chain” metrics in depth. On-chain metrics are those that can be observed by looking at data provided by the blockchain itself. By running a node for the desired Crypto and examining the data, this can be time-consuming and expensive. Particularly if you are only considering the investment, and don't want to waste time or resources on this process. A simple way to do this (in some instances) is to use API-based solutions, plug into exchanges, and see third-party tools such as Binance-research's project reports. Look for info such as; 1) Active Addresses 2) Transaction value 3) Fees – this will give an idea of the demand… Other areas as mentioned above You are looking to ‘invest’ in a tech company, which is the longs and shorts of it. So go and read through the whitepaper. Assess use cases, do they make sense to you? Review the team, do they have experience or have they already raised finance enough to keep the project going – you can now use the chain metrics – to see money flow, you could go and look at the companies register, in the UK all companies are set up under “companies house” this will show shareholders, early account info, company directors. Other factors How about competition in the space? What projects are offering similar solutions, are the other companies further along? Does the company you are looking at, have some kind of USP over their competitors? Supply Mechanisms – Liquidity and volume – Market Cap. These are all things to take into consideration . And Finally - Initial distribution and Tokenomics as a whole A lot of projects have created tokens as a solution looking for a problem. Doge on the other hand created a meme for the market, which is turning into a solution. Understanding the use case, cannot be stressed enough. As such, it's important to determine whether the token has real utility. And, will it have decent adoption? Consider how the funds were initially distributed. Was it via an ICO or IEO, or could users earn it by mining? The whitepaper should outline how much is kept for the founders and team, and how much will be available to investors. If it was mined, you could look to evidence of the asset's creator pre-mining (mining on the network before it's announced). We have a live stream Monday at 3:30 GMT with @Paul_Varcoe 📺 www.tradingview.com 📺 As I said, this is only to give you a starting point - especially for you newer traders. There are several other factors & methods but start here.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
33
Parabolic Explosion / The Bitcoin PhenomenaGood Morning traders! Today we bring you a curious post, and maybe a bit controversial, since we are going to propose a future behavior in bitcoin (in relation to past events) with an extremely interesting price target. To make this post, we will focus on the last large corrections, that is, backward movements that lasted for months or perhaps years. They can be clearly seen in the chart of the post, because the chart is in a logarithmic scale (if you do not know what the logarithmic scale means, leave a comment and we will gladly make an educational post in relation to the different scales in the graph). We can see great similarities in the corrective movements, and so far the impulsive movements have been respected. Speaking of corrective movements, we see that both have a depth of approximately 85%, and a duration of between 1100 and 1300 days. 🔸We can see more clearly the corrections in the two charts below: 🔸The target set in both situations is the theoretical target of this type of movements. Of course, the movement after the first correction ended up being abruptly greater than the theoretical. The rise of the previous impulse was +1600%: Now what we ask ourselves is if the current impulsive movement replicates the previous rise. If so, it would imply a +1600% rise from the breakout, resulting in an approximate target of $340,000. Interesting, right? This kind of behavior is common on many cryptocurrencies. We have more examples and cases, so, feel free to comment the cryptocurrency you are inteterested in and we will try to apply this kind of analysis to it!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by ThinkingAntsOk
4
💡How To Use Market Leaders to Spot a Potential Bottom❗️Lets take a break from stuffing our bags with money and look quick at an example of spotting the market bottom using what's called a market leader, a very simple technique that can be very effective for both shorter and longer term trades. In general the market right now is very alt focused, we can tell that by looking at how low bitcoin dominance is, and how the alt cap is climbing both with btc and with the general market cap. When we're dealing with an alt focused market there's generally going to be a hot ticket item, little while back it was ETH, now it's DOGE again as it's the media darling and Elon is on SNL soon to decide the fate of every leveraged DOGE trader in one monologue. We call this asset the "Market Leader", because it leads the market. Complex, I know. We can identify these assets by their movements during catalyzing BTC movements, generally corrections down are the easiest to see - which is what we have an example of here. Also fundamental analysis of the news can give us a good idea of what may or may not be a market leader. When we see a correction down, and all of a sudden a coin starts moving contrary to the correction at a level that could very well be the bounce point on our BTC and index charts; we know it's either a Pump and Dump if it's a shitcoin or that coin is probably the market leader for either the short term or potentially longer term. In this case we see our lord DOGE, which now has a stupidly high market cap because people are inherently greedy apes, basically hit it's higher low and start rebounding almost exactly 1-hour before BTC started reacting. The rest of the market of course followed and now we see there's a massive bounce and everyone's getting paid copious amount of money today. Fantastic. OBVIOUSLY this is extremely potent information to have, as knowing when the market has reached it's general bottom means we can either close shorts, open longs, or both if you're one of the energetic variety. So keep an eye out for this behavior on the markets in general - it's not always there but when it is, like ETH last week, it can lead you straight to the bank$$$
Education
by cryptosince1963
1
LearnTA - DUSKUSDT - Picture Perfect Ascending Triangle!The idea of this video is to give a rough beginners guide on how to evaluate a coin/token/protocol. When you first look at it, what are you looking for? Is it worth ANY of your time looking at it? Is it a s**tcoin? Is it legit? In dusks case its a super nice looking ascending triangle pattern, cutest triangle I've seen this month ;) Right now its all about the breakout, you may get a chance for a 2 to 3% discount buying on the lower trend line, but the beauty of these setups is its not like you're waiting -10% for it to break pattern! 0:00 = Welcome :) 1:35 = DUSK Fundamentals 2:00 = Ranks 2:45 = Does Binance like it? 3:00 = What does it do? 5:15 = Tokenomics 8:30 = FIRST TECHNICAL ANALYSIS LINES 9:50 = FIB RETRACE LINES 11:15 = Basic Triangle Patterns 11:45 = THE SQUEEZE 16:20 = Measuring the MEASURED MOVE UP 18:30 = Closing thoughts
Education
by tommytoan11
The Power of Relative AnalysisGood morning guys, I am going to explain here how to evaluate timing for any asset (crypto, stock, index), it can be extrapolated to any of them. Based on Technical analysis, Relative Analysis and Market timing: Technical Analysis: If you 're looking to buy an asset you can have a look at the chart itself, which will provide you a very good idea of the timing for buying it. For that, you will use Moving Averages (21,50,200) depending on your timeframe, and you will also use other indicators such as RSI, MACD or SO . If you want to give an extra boost to your technical analysis you can use Ichimoku, Pitchfork... But in the end, less is more. Try to focus on 2-3 indicators and master them, it will be easier and more profitable than having lots of indicators. From my experience, I use moving averages (21,50,200), MACD or RSI for market momentum and Fibonacci for retracement levels. The most popular indicators usually are the most important, because there're the most used by traders and investors. But sometimes that's not enough, sometimes you need to reassure with other tools what you see in a single chart... Relative Analysis: For example, if you want to buy a stock let's say $AMZN you can look at the chart but you can also have a look at the index which is listed in, in this case $NASDAQ100. So you can see if the index itself is bullish or not compared with the stock. But what if I told you that you can make a ratio plotting both charts in only 1 chart. Then you could see a ratio $AMZN / $NASDAQ100, where if the chart goes up it means that $AMZN is doing better than $NASDAQ100. And if it goes down, $NASDAQ100 is doing better than $AMZN. So you can see now if Amazon is bullish itslef as a stock and if it's doing better than the index itself and evaluate new resistance support zones in relation to Nasdaq100. As an example, if you consider Amazon about to do some big move, e.g breaking a triangle pattern, you can see if the relative analysis shows you some resistance against its index, so probably it will break the triangle on the downside. In order to do this in Trading View, you should go to the search bar and write: NASDAQ:AMZN / CURRENCYCOM:US100 ; You've to manually put the slash and then search for the next value. Other indicators: If you surf the internet, you will find Fear & Greed indicators, telling you the market sentiment. You can also find market momentum simple indicators as well as Sentiment Surveys. In reference to cryptos, you can find as wel Fear & Greed indicators (0-100) speedometer and Altcoins-Bitcoin Season indicator. I'll leave here some links to these indicators: money.cnn.com alternative.me www.blockchaincenter.net stockcharts.com www.aaii.com I'll also link to this publication a couple of ideas regarding relative analysis NASDAQ/RUSSELL + BTC/GOLD published weeks ago. Hope it's more or less clear. Don't hesitate to ask me any questions regarding the relative analysis or any other topics. p.s: I did not talk about fundamental analysis because in my opinion chart graphs speak out loud, however you have to do your own research on each company. Fundamental analysis is another tool that we have to use to complement our analysis, specially if you're a long term investor. I am not diminishing it. p.s.2: In the grapgh I explain Altcoin vs BTC index but as I previously said you can use it in any pair of your desire. e.g: Dash / Monero, BTC / ETH, Tesla / NIO... Good luck everoyne and take care! Cheers,
FTX:ALTPERPEducation
by UnknownUnicorn12935038