BTC Weekly OB'sFor those interested, OB's are quite the holy grail in BTC, together with RSI divergences... and PA (patterns, candles, etc...)
The only untested OB's are shows in blue, the ones already tested in green...
So we can see we have our bullish OB above PA untested, even if we gonna make a new low, we should test it, starts at 8223$ and ends at 9529$, but closing above 50% OB at 8876$ we are more inclined for upside continuation, closing above 9529$ or will be bull trap or we'll pump to next OB from there because it's bullish.
On the other hand, we haven't tested the bearish OB and we should do it, sooner or later (it makes sense sooner, probably after poking 8223$), closing below 50% OB at 7314$ we're more inclined for downside continuation, closing below 7119$ or will be bear trap, or we will dump from there because it's bearish.
So, right now we have a small range, a medium range and a larger range:
Tighter range: 7500$ - 8223$
Medium range: 7314$ - 8876$
Larger range: 7119$ - 9529$
As explained above, you already know what to do!
About the highest OB, we can't really say it's untested as we tested right after closing below with 2 candles (1 wick and 1 candle close inside, as you see, BTC wicked 50% OB but wasn't able to close above, so it dumped from there.
I drawn it like untested OB, because going up, from bottom 3k to high, you can see that we haven't poked that OB, and it's the only one untested, so I'd say we will do it, when... that's the question, but soon if we remain bullish and printing HH, HL.
OB's are magnificent tool to trade, learn them if you wanna be successful!
Chart is almost naked, just OB's, and you could trade solely on them.
PS: I just drawn the OB's that matter the most for the recent price action and to show how they "always" get tested!
PSS: I might be confusing bearish and bullish, because I don't need to name them and never do, would rather call them green and red but some are white and black :)
Btc!
Doji lesson 1-2-2020Hello again. I am just being observant this a.m. and looking at these dojis on the 1hr. This method is not perfect but I use it often. When I see a doji (like the ones indicated) and the doji is at the top of an uptrend or downtrend I will often take a position. I can not tell you I have won every time I do but I would put my win/loss ratio to 75% win - 25% loss. Bitcoin has a mind of its own and if you have traded for any amount of time you should know that by now. But there are a few things that can signal a turn around and this is one of them.
When a doji shows up at the top of an uptrend it can signal a drop. If the doji shows up at the bottom of a down trend it can signal a reversal as well. You need to play these with a stop loss. Anything can and will happen. If the doji shows up at the bottom of a downtrend than pay attention to the wick. The wick should be longer on the bottom from my experience. These dojis seem to work better than the ones with a taller upper wick.
Same goes for a doji at the top of an uptrend. If the wick on top is taller than the one below it works better as a reversal indicator in my opinion. Its easy to see how well this method works. Just scroll back through history. I have made decent $$$ from this technique. But WTFDIK right?
December Futures Comparison, Bitmex XBTZ19 vs. Deribit BTC27Z19Now that I created indicators for tracking both Bitmex and Deribit futures, I decided to do a comparison between the two before we loose the December Futures Data. Initial observation is that Deribit Futures seem to trade at a higher premium. Let me know your thoughts?
If you are new to my posts, please check out my other ideas and indicators in related links below...
MAJOR TOOL YOU MUST HAVE IN YOUR TRADING TOOL BOX!COINBASE:BTCUSD
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE COVERED! It is so important that you understand support and resistance. It may seem so basic but this alone can make you consistent profits. Understanding where the market may pivot is an edge you simply can not afford to not have in your technical plan.
If you have any questions or comments, leave them down below and i will get back to you! want a topic covered? let me know in the comments.
CHRISTMAS BONUS!!! $25,000 IN 48 HOURS!!!
$1,000,000.00 a year is only $2730 a day.
$2730 a day is only $110 per hour if you earn money 24 hours a day.
If you're only working 8 hours a day, how do you make money in the other 16 hours?
You need a business that pays you whilst you sleep. Simple!
There is nothing wrong with having a job to pay the bills, but a job rarely sets you financially free. You need a business that pays you 24 hours a day, 365 days a year that you can build in the pockets of your time.
Crypto currencies and forex investments opportunities can do that for you.
Bitcoin Market Cycle. Psychology & Mechanics.Just as important, riding a bicycle, or even a supercar, doesn’t fall under the train, in order to understand when and in which direction to trade - you need to figure out who you are playing against, how to behave in each of the phases of the market, and how to identify these phases.
Today we’ll talk about the mechanics of the market and its participants. According to the postulates of technical analysis, which in turn is based on the law of market fractality, there are market cycles in which 4 phases can be distinguished:
1. Accumulation
2. Acceleration
3. Distribution
4. Shaking out
There is also theory that divides the cycle only into accumulation and distribution, we distinguish 4 phases, which, in our opinion, describe in more detailed market participants behaviour.
The problem of many novice traders and investors is precisely the lack of an optimal exit point from the transaction. Understanding the phases of the market will be helpful in solving this problem.
Consider each phase in more detail:
Accumulation - this phase visually looks like a horizontal corridor with low volatility and increased volumes. On Bitcoin, this phase can be observed twice on weekly charts in 2015 and 2019. At this moment, large limit players of long positions are activated. Lows and highs cease to be updated. These market participants operate on the principle of buy low - sell high. Accordingly, they have models of fundamental asset pricing, and the fair price that it should cost. Purchases are made below this price. As a result, there is an imbalance between buyers and sellers, which affects future pricing. The latter is becoming less and less inside the accumulation. At a time when there are not enough sellers on the market ready to push the price further, a control purchase on the market occurs, which causes the first update of three-month highs and the subsequent market reversal. Then begins the phase of overclocking the market.
Acceleration - at this moment, traders on 1D or less charts are activated. Highs begin to update and lows cease to be updated. A growing market is starting to create excitement and attract new money, interested in future benefits. These participants can act for fundamental, technical, or emotional reasons and with their money push the course upwards by buying market orders. Participants in the purchase phase during the accumulation phase begin moderate sales above their “fair” price starting distribution.
Distribution is the culmination of closing purchases made during the accumulation phase. In this phase, the highs cease to be updated, but the lows have not yet begun to be updated. At the potential top of the bull market, large players will want to sell stocks previously purchased at low price levels, which will take profits. Most of them will place large sell orders in a certain price range. Each sale should be absorbed by market makers who create the market. Some orders will be executed immediately, another part will go to the order book. Market makers will resell, which must be executed without lowering the selling price of their own, or other traders. Large limit orders in a glass can maintain a rate higher than the price at which the remainders of the "initiators" are added to players who are too optimistic about prices in the near future. After closing the deals of the “initiators”, limit purchase orders disappear from the glass and the remaining mass of the market falls under the influence of the supply thrown onto the market - a bearish trend begins, and with it the shaking out phase.
Shaking Out - new minimums becomes lower. The market is accelerating in down trend and trying to get balance. Afterwards market starts to slow down and then volatility goes down. At some point, traders who are already trading short positions leave the instrument for other, more volatile ones. The strongest holders who have not yet sold their assets remain in the cold darkness. At one point, market capitulation occurs. The market cycle is over. There is no weak holders anymore. If fundamentally there is a potential for growth and the price is "underestimated", a new phase of accumulation begins. If fundamentally everything is bad, the asset goes into non-existence and is replaced by dozens of new ones.
For hundreds of years, technology, markets, products have changed, but not psychology - the psychology of the masses, built on greed and fear, remains unchanged for hundreds of years.
In order to learn how to successfully trade, unlike investing, you must forget about the intrinsic value of a stock, or any other instrument. All that you should care about is the perceived value - the value that professionals imagine, and not the one that reflects the interests of the issuer. Intrinsic value is only part of the perceived value. Remember that instrument quotes reflect precisely its perceived value, and not internal, as you might have thought.
When to quit:
1. The ideal way is to exit at the beginning of the distribution phase. At this point, the new high will be lower than the previous one. The first signals will be reversal candle patterns, with a continuation in the form of bearish volumes. many technical indicators will show divergence signals.
2. If you missed this moment, after the first downward wave, there will be a correction. Oscillators will show a way out of the oversold zone with the high below the previous one.
3. If you missed this signal, then it is advisable to exit on the signal-momentum indicators, or on the next correction wave of lower time frames.
Congratulations! Now you understand the mechanics of the market and, perhaps, this article will help you not to fall into the trap of the market. And if without multiyears of trading experience you want to be profitable on cryptocurrencies market from the begin - join to FOBS!
If this material was useful for you - please leave your likes and comments, and also follow us on social networks!
BTCUSD & ETHUSDT | Direct correlation of assets' price actionAt the 4H-timeframe scale it can be clearly seen how perfectly correlated are Bitcoin and Ethereum price actions in the middle term.
There are vertical flags with dates and time from the beginning of the observation till the current moment. Starting from the 21th of November you can see each sharp movement duplicates, even IHS patterns were formed in the same manner.
What does it mean?
1. Bitcoin's capitalization and Ethereum capitalization is represented mostly by the same big players now.
2. Once fundamental news arrive and affect the market big players either fix their crypto to stable coins in case they expect drop or enter the market back diversifying their holdings between ETH and BTC in equal proportions.
3. It does not seem like a
collusion it is more likely big players want to diversify, however this now destroys opportunities of diversification.
4. Because ETH and BTC can no longer be used for diversification soon we will see whales choosing other instruments for it.
5. Once new coin is determined ETH will have an inverse correlation with Bitcoin. Moreover Ethereum will face with a sharp value drop once it happens.
Conclusion:
Do not use Ethereum for diversification in the mid or long term. Ethereum is now risky for long term holdings, choose several top-10 cryptocurrencies instruments for it
Dragononcrypto 3 Month Graphical ReviewIn order to promote accountability and transparency, here is a collation of all the BTC/USD calls I have made in the past 3 months. Note that some where on smaller time frames than the Daily (that is used in this graphic), such as the 1hr and 4hr, but otherwise remain relevant to the review.
Bitcoin Repeating History: 10 Part TA Series On Repeating Past Patterns
Full series with recent updates: bitcointalk.org
Technical Analysis Highlights September-December 2019
Measuring The Move of the Descending Triangle Breakdown
If 2017 Descending Triangle Repeats? Best Case Scenario
Extrapolating the 50 & 200 Day MA bear crosses
Extrapolating 2014 Correction - Could $6,500 Be The Low?
Two & Four Year MA's Claim It's Time To Accumulate
Miner Capitulation Is Here... Back Down To $3,800?
TD Sequential 9 Next Week To Decide Direction?
Another Bearish Bitcoin Indicator: 200 EMA & MA Bearcross
If Bitcoin Repeats History? Extrapolating 2012 Breakdown
A repeat of 2014? Worst Case Scenario A $2,500 Low
If Bitcoin Repeats History? Descending Triangle Looking Similar
Bitcoin | Price Prediction by 2020..!!What is Bitcoin..!!
Bitcoin is a digital form of cash. But unlike traditional fiat currency, there is no central bank controlling it. Each unit of Bitcoin is unique and cannot be copied or destroyed, and it runs on top of a distributed network, maintained by thousands of computers around the world.
Bitcoin Features..!!
- Decentralized access allowing any party with the open-source software and internet access to send and receive Bitcoin irreversibly without third party interference or trust.
- Decentralized governance via open-source development and forking.
- Relatively slow block times in comparison to other crypto-currencies although there are solutions in development such as the Lightning Network aiming to solve the problem of scaling.
- Largest hashrate (ensuring the security and resilience of the blockchain) and largest liquidity.
- Most common currency for crypto-currency exchange pairing
- The hard coded scarcity (maximum 21 million coins) has led to comparisons to traditional physical scarce resources like gold.
- Transactions are pseduo-anonymous. Funds are sent address to address, but an owner identity can eventually attributed to an address given enough data and analysis.
- Average blocktime of 10 minutes; Total supply of 21 million BTC; Consensus via Proof of Work (SHA-256).
Bitcoin Milestones..!!
31st October 2008 - White paper released by Satoshi Nakomoto.
3rd January 2009 - Genesis block mined by Satoshi Nakomoto.
12th January 2009 - First transaction using Bitcoin; Satoshi Nakomoto sends 100 BTC to Hal Finney.
22nd May 2010 - First recorded commercial transaction using Bitcoin; aka Pizza Day.
14th January 2016 - Lightning Network white paper, a Layer-2 solution to scaling Bitcoin.
1st August 2017 - Bitcoin Cash (BCH) hard fork.
23rd August 2017 - Segregated Witness (SegWit) implemented.
What is Bitcoin halving?
An event that halves the rate at which new Bitcoins are created. It occurs once every four years.
Will the Bitcoin price change?
Historically, the price has gone up following a halving, but it ultimately depends on the supply/demand ratio.
Essentially, Bitcoin halving cuts down the supply of BTC, making the asset more scarce. If the demand is there, the price is likely to increase. There are also some historical precedents. On Nov. 28, 2012, the day of Bitcoin’s first halving, the cpryptocurrency’s price rose from $11 to $12, and continued to climb up throughout the next year, reaching $1038 on Nov. 28, 2013.
Roughly four years later, a month before the second halving, Bitcoin’s price started to follow a similar, bullish pattern. It surged from $576 on June 9 to $650 on July 9, 2016 — the day the block’s reward was reduced by half for the second time in the asset’s history. Again, BTC continued to accelerate through the next year, albeit with occasional turbulence, and traded at $2526 on 9 July 2017.
Will it be the same next time? Skeptics believe that the halving has already been priced in (remember this year’s epic, but short-lived systematic price increase?). Although, there is no scientific way to verify this.
Moreover, the industry has drastically changed over the last four years, as cryptocurrencies — and Bitcoin in particular — became an essential part of mainstream news coverage. Still, some people might be tempted to take the chance, especially given the previous patterns exhibited around Bitcoin halvings.
Consequently, if history repeats itself and the Bitcoin price starts going up in April 2020, even more traders might start buying the asset out of a fear of missing out, thus stimulating the demand, and, ultimately, the price.
Please, give us your opinion in the comments.!!
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The information given is never financial advice. Always do your own research.
Example of cryptocurrency market infancyWe are currently still in the infancy of the cryptocurrency market, as the market matures more coins will die off, fundamentals will become more prominent during evaluation and new trends within culture will emerge, including cryptocurrency. Often this infancy is compared to the dot com bubble which it is very much alike. This infancy is a direct contributor to the volatility and unpredictable nature of many coins, and most of the time this volatility is dependent on speculation. Once VERY clear leaders emerge (bitcoin, Eth, XRP at the current time) volatility will slow, and more growth will be seen as more confident investors enter the space.
Leave comments below I would love to hear your feedback, (what else I could have included).
We make losing trades profitable. Martingale + Position Trading.The graph shows, by the example of BTC / USD, the combined 2 money management strategies for taking high profits with minimal risk. And for all the trading time, only 4 transactions were made, including the loss-making one, almost 2 times more expensive than the minimum price!
I showed a specially bad option when a person could not or did not want to exit Stop Loss and suffered tremendous losses. The price of the first purchase is almost two times more expensive than the minimum values! This is in order to show the high efficiency of this symbiosis of work. And how to pull even the most hopeless unprofitable transaction into profit.
There is a similar work on altcoins, but there are some peculiarities. On the one hand, they are easier to work and many times faster, but there are nuances. There will be free time I will make an article.
Let's say the first purchase of BTC was at a price of $ 6400 per coin at the bottom, which turned out to be not a bottom at all. Let's say that you didn’t get out on Stop Loos, or you had a coin in a cold wallet. And of course, during the dump, the input / output on the top exchanges was closed and you could not transfer coins to sell. When the exchange opened coin input, you no longer wanted to sell at a loss of -30% or so. What to do in such a situation? If you are still a bad trader and can not cover the losses due to the skill of work within the day.
In such a sad situation, the Martingale money management method will help you.
Martingale with proper operation will take out losses and help to gain a position at averaged reasonable prices.
A straightforward positional trading , about which I have already made a teaching idea, will help you get profit at average high prices when the trend changes to an upward one.
The main thing in this matter is understanding of work and patience. Also, you don’t have to stare at the charts every day.
Due to the entry with a volume 2 times larger than the losing trade, we get profit. The most important purchase of even 2 BTC was at a potential price bottom, from which a trend reversal could take place. It is important to buy not on support, but when it is confirmed.
As a rule, 2-3 purchases are made before a trend reversal. In no case should there be more.
Note that in the purchases and sales that I showed on the chart there are no lows and highs. The position was exited by breaking the uptrend line and fixing the price below it at a bitcoin price of $ 10,000, and the maximum price in this trend was $ 13,888! Coin purchases were also far from the minimum values. And the first is almost 2 times more expensive than the minimum price of a downtrend! Minimum prices and maximum prices let us leave the hamsters. We need to get real profit in real money with minimal risk.
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To summarize the example of work in numbers:
1 losing trade purchase of 1 BTC ($ 6400)
Spent $ 6400
Work - MARTINGALE
2 purchase 2 BTC ($ 3900)
Spent $ 7800
3 purchase 3 BTC ($ 3,500)
Spent $ 10500
Total Average Position 6 BTC
No loss comes at a price of $ 4100 for 1 BTC
Spent $ 24,700
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Work - Position Trading.
We have 6 BTC with an average average purchase of $ 4100 for a total of $ 24,700
A long sideways movement begins.
We are waiting for its change to an uptrend.
We hold a position in an uptrend.
Stop Loss under the uptrend line if there is no way to control the position every day.
We exit the Stop Loss or market position when an uptrend line breaks through and the price fixes below it.
The important thing is not breaking through itself, as there may be a false breakthrough, namely, fixing the price below the trend line.
In this example, the position was exited when the uptrend line was broken and the price fixed below it at a price of $ 10,000 . Once again, I recall that the maximum price in this trend was $ 13888! The sale was very far from the highs, but for that with a confirmed trend change. And even with these values, the profit was:
6 BTC at a price of $ 10,000 = $ 60,000 - $ 24,700 = $ 35,300 net profit, with the initial loss-making transaction, it is almost 2 times more expensive from the lows of the trend!
And the most paradoxical, for all this time only 4 transactions were completed along with the first unprofitable !!!
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I will describe in more detail these 2 methods of money management. Let's start with MARTINGALE.
Martingale - is a bet management system discovered by French mathematician Paul Pierre Levy in the 18th century.
According to the Martingale money management method, the new entry point should be exactly two times larger in volume than the previous losing trade. This is done so that the minimum price movement in your favor covers previously unprofitable transactions due to the accumulated large volume at lower prices. This is all achieved through math and volume increase when the price moves against you. But not everything is so smooth, we will consider all the shortcomings and dangers of this method in this article.
Not everything is so smooth, it is very important that there are a limited number of unprofitable transactions. After all, all losing trades in order to get profit must be covered with double volume or at least a large percentage of entry. It all depends on the consistent number of losing trades. The longer this sequence, the higher the likelihood that the deposit will not withstand the load and the remaining funds may not be enough to maintain another position in the market. The whole effectiveness of this method lies in the correct entry points and the right tool selection.
Using Martingale can increase your chances of making a profit. But if you do not own dimensionless capital, then you will certainly encounter a situation where a series of losing trades at an accelerated pace will take its lion's share. Therefore, in order to protect yourself, determine for yourself the share of your trading capital that you can use for each next series and the limit of losses that you may incur. If you reach this threshold, then trading should be stopped. In this case, you will have to admit defeat, but in the alternative you will only lose the previously set amount and protect the rest of the funds.
Initially, you need to choose the right tool, weak tools that forever in a downtrend without kickbacks are not suitable here. The tool chart can tell you whether this depot management method is suitable for this tool or not. The use of Martingale on trading instruments in an eternal downtrend is a direct way to zero the deposit. Coins are candidates for delisting, or abandoned without active developers in the social. networks and without the presence of a major player similarly - the way to drain the deposit. You can use this method to control an unmeasured amount of unnecessary program code. The delist of the coin is from the exchange, and you will have unnecessary program code for anyone that will always remind you of your stupidity.
It matters a lot where you enter the deal . Do not catch falling knives, do not try to buy at the lowest possible price, it is important to buy at those levels where the price stops, where there is a reversal potential. A doubled position or tripled when the price moves is much lower than the initial entry will make a big profit. At the same time, chaotic entrances to the transaction when the price goes against you, without understanding what is happening and why the bistro will empty your deposit.
It is also very important to have an initially large deposit that would withstand a drawdown and a double purchase volume.
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Benefits of money management using the Martingale method.
1) It is possible with the right choice of instrument to significantly disperse the deposit.
2) Very often, you make a purchase at the lowest prices or close to the minimum values. This is achieved due to the fact that when the price goes against you, you should buy lower, and with a high degree of probability one of the purchases will be the minimum value of the trend. The main thing is that the deposit does not run dry until this moment.
3) With the help of Martingale, sometimes you can pull out at a loss, or even in a plus, it would seem a hopeless position with the help of an additional asset with an increased volume from the first entry. And when the price moves in our favor, we can exit with the entire volume of one transaction and thereby close the losing trade. By other methods, we had to wait a long time for a certain price, or to make a lot of positive transactions in order to cover losses.
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Disadvantages of money management using the Martingale method.
1) Martingale's capital management method, especially its classic version, assumes a sufficiently large deposit that will be able to withstand a large minus in open positions and will allow opening new positions with an increased volume.
2) The effectiveness of the Martingale method directly depends on your trading strategy in which it is applied. If the strategy has low efficiency or is completely unprofitable, then this method will only aggravate it.
3) A high proportion of the probability of a deposit being leaked if the trading instruments are chosen incorrectly. The Martingale method has an increased level of risk. If the classical rules of money management allow a risk of 3-5% of the deposit, then the riskiness of strategies with Martingale is about 60%.
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I would like to add that martingale is often used (almost always) on viola when recruiting a large position, only in a modified form. This is still more of a “market maker” strategy, but one of the components of the work is martingale. With each new entrance, loading a glass with a dialed position.
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Position trading.
Position Trading Rules:
1) A signal to enter a position is the beginning of a trend on a large timeframe (with a timeframe of 1 day or 1 week).
2) Exit from the transaction is carried out only if there are sufficient grounds for the end of the trend (trend change).
Positional trading is suitable for those who have already traded an impressive depot and are already tired of staring at the monitor and burning their time, spoiling their eyesight. For those who no longer get high from the excitement of management and so on. Because a large depot can in most cases be dispersed only by such methods. A person must have iron patience and an understanding of the market cycles. Because profits need to wait a long time. As you can see from the graph, for example, only one trend can last up to a year.
Positional trading is the work on the trend on a long-term basis, on charts covering a large time scale. For its implementation, fundamental and technical analysis is often used. Position trading is suitable for all types of markets: cryptocurrencies, stocks, goods, Forex.
In other words, position trading refers to a relatively long-term holding of a position in the direction of a global trend.
Thus, position trading is an independent style, significantly different from others. Market participants can use this approach to hold short-term and long-term positions.
Maintaining a position in the trend, and not work on small weekly fluctuations. This is the main difference from swing, which involves working on the basis of market cycles of several days. In positional trading, you can hold a trade for months or even a year or more (Dow Jones index), it all depends on the trend.
Coins for positional trading are selected very carefully, they must be reliable, be closer to TOP or be this top as an example of Litecoin. There should be a real development of the project in the long term, with a strong team that really does something, and not only has a promise legend. It is very important that the coin you choose for positional trading be highly liquid.
You can work (or rather need) as in long and short. In any direction the price you earn.
Only the large time frame is important, we do not pay attention to small price fluctuations.
The purchase / sale of an asset is made only upon confirmation of a change in trend.
No hai and loy! Minimum prices and maximums will be left for hamsters.
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The advantages of positional trading.
1) Does not take into account small price changes, that is, does not require constant monitoring of the situation.
2) There is no need to be near the computer all the time. In positional strategy, the most important thing is a deep and thorough analysis, on the basis of which a further decision is made.
3) An open position simply needs to be monitored if there is a situation that can change the position or price.
Positional trading strategy is an analysis of daily, weekly and monthly timeframes; holding an open position for at least a few days to several months.
In simple terms, positional trading is a meaningful and balanced entry into a transaction based on holding a position in a trend.
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The disadvantages of positional trading.
1) a long expectation of results that can actually be measured only after months or years;
2) high responsibility for each forecast and analysis, since it can take many days and weeks to hold the wrong position;
3) slow progress in trading (holding positions is good if the trader already has experience, but you won’t be able to gain it quickly by opening deals once a year);
4) the need for significant investment (you can get a tangible income from position trading only if you have a decent amount of money in the account).
As a result, holding a position in certain cases is a significant advantage for an experienced trader, but fatal for beginner speculators.
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Also in positional trading, I made a training idea on examples of the LTC / BTC pair. bidding and everything described there is relevant for working now on a coin.
EDUCATION LTC / BTC Positional trend trading in the channel with a step of 190%.
Also in the fixed ideas under the description of this, all my teaching ideas are published here on Tradingview.
Bitcoin facing the abyss - need a daily close above....OMGNOT ADVICE DYOR. Caveat - small sample size.
Here's the construction. You need BB %B indicator. Then do MACD on that indicator. Mark all instances signal line turns positive (yellow). Mark (white) first instance histogram turns red. If both these cross month end then mark that month end (blue). Box both months in white. Bulls need to push daily close above $7933.4. Come on! If not will first lines of defence hold. NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
Three spikes - market never closed above for a long timeNOT ADVICE. DYOR. Using two of my signal constructs I identified three matching profiles since bitcoin peak December 2017. Without going into detail suffice to say market never closed higher for a long time.
Some of my followers may be able to work out construct. Here is a clue
Bull market failed ,now what ?30-40% retracemants are off the table.We are trading under the 200 daily MA .Bull market failed!Now what?
We are looking some bearish targets : the WEEKLY 30 RSI and the 200 weekly MA ! Both tremendous indicators for some kind of bear market bottom .Altough price might wick under these targets ,price NEVER EVER in the history of bitcoin stayed under for weeks/months ! Tremendeous investing oppurtinity if you do ask me .
Currenetly the 200weeklyMA is traveling roughly at 4900 (depending on the exchange) If it starts to dump more or less sharply ,the 30 weekly RSI might coincide with the 200 we MA wich would be be even better !
Disclaimer :i dont think price will go straight down ,i think there will be another big short squezee anywhere between 6.1-6.9k (see my previsious idea).Hell ,theres some early signs that 6.5k might be the bottom...price dont have to go to that targets at all (but most probably it will)
If you are trading, trend is your friend -sell the pumps
If you wanna invest ,these sub 7k leveles are probably not the worst times to DCA down to those targets! The sentiment is bearish as fuck it might not go that low at all ...DCA is king !GL