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ETH An example in why retail traders are wrong!Good Morning traders! Today I have a great example of order protection and liquidity building. This is something that I have been speaking about for a long time and this current PA shows it well. The blue boxes show places where large orders have been placed and and initiated moves. See how price returns to retest these areas?! this gives the Banks, Whales and big players a chance to protect orders. Retail traders place orders outside of these areas "support and resistance areas" These orders can easily be seen, and therefore hunted. The highs and lows create areas for the big players to exit the large volume positions as every buy order needs a seller and vice versa. I hope this information has been helpful. As always trade safe. EnvisionEJ
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDEducation
by EnvisionEJ
3
Is BTC entering the grand super cycleI have always been bullish with cryptocurrency, especially in BTC even though many will argue that it has not much of a usage apart from just transaction. But BTC has and will be the leader since it has garnered the most attention from the institutions and even countries like El Salvador. Mores o, Citibank has come out with the current report on cryptocurrency, last being in 2014 stating the potential of the currency itself. Remember, wave 1 is always the time where it gets attention from the people. Many eager eyes from the insitutions and big players might have been accumulating the currency during the correction, namely Cathie Wood, JP Morgan etc....The usage of blockchain technology is spreading like wildfire. I remember during the 2017 bullrun it was brought on by ICO and the crypto millionaire frenzy. But this time is different. The years long of development in the technology has successfully garnered the attention of many tech players and businesses. Players like VET has successfully penetrated the commercial world. You name a few coins and you will see businesses are beginning the use the service. It is becoming mainstream sooner or later. It's quite interesting to look at BTC chart in a longer time frame such a weekly or even monthly. What has really struck me was the bullishness of the currency itself. Be it weekly or monthly, it just shows the signs of bull. The uptrending in price between August 2020 till April 2021 might be just the 1st wave it has done. The correction until August might be the end of wave 2 which correlates with the falling to the support of 0.618. if this holds true, the 3rd wave is just beginning to form. The third wave is where most people will catch on the rocket and is always the longest wave form. The third wave usually achieves 1.618, 2.618 or even 3.618 of the 1st wave. But bear in mind in each wave, there will be a smaller wave of correction. Meaning, the saying of hold and buy the dip still holds true. Since it's long term bullish, traders just have to buy the dip and sell according to the resistance using fib and patterns in the chart (please correct me) Whether should we compare to the price chart in 2013/14 or 2017/18 is not relevant to me because they are just reference. Many people have been commenting about bubble. Yes, anything that is too hot will have to take some chiller. But not this time. I strongly believe as long as the currency has not gone mainstream and adopted by most companies, there bubble is still not yet to burst. If BTC can achieve even half of the market cap of gold, then it might reach the height of 300k or even 500k. Mind you it's the circulating supply that matters. We know that there are BTC that are missing forever due to certain reasons. I am here to provide some perspective of the currency if anyone is still in doubt of the potential of cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency is here to stay. I will not say it will bubble for the next few years. BTC might be having a bullrun for the longest period of time I would appreciate if anyone can comment on the idea to give more perspective.
Education
by V12bull
6
Guidance note - short selling and trading in generalI though I would write a simple Guidance Not on shorting etc., - In general, sell rallies (refer below for guidance) - use candle wicks at rejection points. - wicks + inside bar - a good limit grid point to sell. - trade limit order book exhaustion - not mid range unless news etc., determines otherwise. - be careful of short covering forces and bargain buying. - using closing price to identify the floor / ceiling - candles are range IN time - closing prices are range OVER time . - nice to have a market with you - look for other evidence not just noise trading i.e. SOPR peaked out or negative. - marry-up trading aggressiveness to capital management. - trading style is aligned to your temperament - trading style aligns to the time you have available to monitor. More aggressive, more scalping, lower time frame -> more time commitment required! - Taking profits is as important as stop losses. - Identify market breakeven points - price action normally follows where traders are trying to breakeven.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Adam-Cox
5
BTCUSDTHey everyone, I'm not trying to predict next movement. I can say neither it goes up nor it fall down. So, please consider this as a tutorial : 1st question : what is an uptrend exactly ? Uptrends occur when we see higher high and higher low. 2nd question : when can we say an uptrend is getting stronger ? When we see upward movements which are larger than their previous movements. For example, in a 12345, 23 should be equal or larger than 1 and 45 should be equal or larger than 23. 3rd question : when can we say an uptrend is getting weaker ? Of course when it's upward movements getting smaller and weaker continuously. So, as we can see in the chart, as the time passes, we see weaker and weaker upward movements which is a sign of forming falling trends in the future. BC = 0.78A, DE = 0.618BC and guess the question mark! XY = ?????DE If XY can not reach DE's height, we will presumably see a price correction in the future. Furthermore, on daily chart, we can see divergence in RSI which is a sign of future bearish trends. Also, you can see easily a downtrend in the volume indicators. An increase in price along with a decrease in volume is a bad sign for the bull market.
Education
by mohammadshams33
1
What does burning a coin mean? Can it tackle inflationIf you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Any feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis! ➡Coin-burning is the intentional and permanent elimination of a portion of cryptocurrency coins from circulation. It is done by sending cryptocurrency tokens to an eater address, also known as a ‘blackhole.’ It is a wallet address where no one holds the private key. Without the private key, these tokens cannot be accessed by anyone and are lost forever. Although creating an artificial supply crunch might seem like an illegal market manipulation technique, it definitely isn't! This act is primarily done to control the price of the particular coin. All the transactions are recorded on the blockchain and cannot be altered. Therefore, everyone can verify that the coins were actually burned. Burning a portion of the entire circulation decreases the supply, thereby increasing its relative scarcity. ➡How did coin-burning as a concept evolve? It is not a new concept at all. Although coin burning in cryptos gained huge popularity recently, a similar concept exists in the case of stocks. Companies buy back shares thereby reducing the total circulation, creating an artificial supply crunch. One of the most notable instances of coin burning was when Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum burned more than 90% of his Shiba Inu tokens. More recently, with the London Hard Fork, close to half a million dollars worth of Ethereum is being burned every hour. ➡Can all coins be burnt or only some specific ones? All cryptocurrency coins can be burnt. The decision to burn tokens usually resides with the developer/miner/team behind the particular coin. ➡What is Proof-of burn? Proof-of-Burn is a consensus mechanism implemented by a blockchain network that operates on the principle of allowing miners to burn virtual currency tokens. Proof-of-burn is like the Proof-of-Work mechanism without the energy wastage. Proof-of-burn involves a mechanism that promotes burning crypto regularly to prevent unfair advantage to the first movers. It also helps to maintain mining power. Instead of a one-time affair, the Proof-of-burn engages miners to carry it on as a routine activity. ➡What it's the need to burn coins and how is it beneficial for the investor? There might be different reasons to burn cryptocurrency coins. The most notable objective is to create a deflationary effect. Removing a large portion from circulation causes a supply crunch. It drives the coin price higher. It makes existing investors pretty happy as the value of their investments is now higher. Additionally, coin burning provides a natural mechanism to prevent spam attacks against something called the Distributed Denial of Service Attack (DDOS). Therefore, it acts as a safeguard for the network. After the London Hard Fork upgrade to the Ethereum network, around 3.17 ETH is being burned every minute. To put this into perspective, as of today’s ETH price of $3100, around half a million dollars worth of ETH is being burned every hour. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Keep supporting:) -Mudrex
Education
by Mudrex
7
Trade what you see, Bearish or Bullish? You tell meGood day fellow traders. I hardly post these days. But for the purpose of sharing some views. You could say Logic> retrace vs what does the structure tell you. Let me be clear always be bearish aka sensible. Before you make a decision!!!!! I expected a correction of larger size in the last week. So what is happening We are currently in what seems to be a 5ft wave within a larger structure. Which to be clear, atm looks quite bullish. Does that mean we go up? Not necessarily. The probability is more favorable atm. The battle is still waging. Most anticipate the 50.7K level to be of large interest. This makes sense for the psychological part of trading and coincides with some levels off course. Looking at the indicators at our availability. Volume has been fairly controlled from the move of 30k to current. So imagine what happens if volumes decrease, will we fall, most likely. Will it be as hard as most people are stating. Not so sure. When we look at the last corrections these were all very controlled and with a lot of strength (we lacked the large volume as stated from start bull). But also the large selling from the correction from 65K. It also states that there are always buyers waiting at every correction to add positions. Renewed interest at support levels. Now, what will happen if the large volume does return in strength? Easy push thru 50K levels? The MACD is trying to cross bullish, not there yet! But if we get a buy signal at these levels and position of our MACD. Imagine the wave possibilities for the size of the next wave. The RSI is showing a lot of strength within the recent moves. Again an indicator that is leaning towards strength. Maybe more power than most have thought over the last weeks? The weekly chart: What does that tell us? Pinbar? bullish cross MACD? Bullish cross DMI? Started a 3 wave within a larger supercycle? Weekly support 43K resistance 50K > 57K. Favorable TD count. Nice looking Pinbar candle atm. TP on the weekly are the fib extension levels from the start bull run 127-161. 4H chart just for info: So what is going on? Time will tell. The point is never anticipated what the others tell you. DIY, that's where you will make a long-term investment, swing trade. Day trading is a different story. Crypto can change very quickly. Do yourself a favor and watch the Daily and Weekly above everything else. This is not financial advice. Good luck to you all Old post to show the levels?
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by CryptoDonkie
2
Day Trading ES with Simplicity! Initial Balance VWAP and LevelsHey everyone I thought I can share with you what I see working intraday trading the Futures markets. One size definitely does not fit all. Beware of people that tell you their way or the highway! This may resonate with some traders and not with other traders. Getting really good at identifying the Initial Balance, VWAP and Daily Weekly Monthly Levels for areas of Supply and Demand, (where macro traders sit) you can get a great edge over time with your trading and build a ton of confidence. Check it out for yourself. I also use order flow to actual enter and manage my trade ideas but that is for another topic. Everyone take care out there.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by ViperFutures
2
Welcome to The Pivot Point.So whilst most people just see them as lines on a chart, I don't find many people know how to calculate them or have any real strategy around them. Here's an intro to Pivot Points; Summary Pivot points are used by traders in equity and commodity exchanges. They're calculated based on the high, low, and closing prices of previous trading sessions, and they're used to predict support and resistance levels in the current or upcoming session. These support and resistance levels can be used by traders to determine entry and exit points, both for stop-losses and profit taking. How to Calculate Pivot Points There are several different methods for calculating pivot points, the most common of which is the five-point system. This system uses the previous day's high, low, and close, along with two support levels and two resistance levels (totaling five price points), to derive a pivot point. The equations are as follows, with the added R & S 3! Indicators You may have already seen but @TradingView has a couple of built in indicators for pivots such as this one below; where these levels are automated for you. For stocks, which trade only during specific hours of the day, use the high, low, and close from the day's standard trading hours. In 24-hour markets, such as the forex market in which currency is traded, pivot points are often calculated using New York closing time (4 p.m. EST) on a 24-hour cycle. Since the GMT is also often used in forex trading, some traders opt to use 23:59 GMT for the close of a trading session and 00:00 GMT for the opening of the new session. While it's typical to apply pivot points to the chart using data from the previous day to provide support and resistance levels for the next day, it's also possible to use last week's data and make pivot points for next week. This would serve swing traders and, to a lesser extent, day traders. This info is all on free sites such as investopedia.com & Babypips.com Alternative Methods Another common variation of the five-point system is the inclusion of the opening price in the formula: And a method by Tom DeMark; Pivot points can be used in two ways. The first way is to determine the overall market trend. If the pivot point price is broken in an upward movement, then the market is bullish. If the price drops through the pivot point, then it's is bearish. Some people use pivot points in short term/scalp type strategies - One such method is the rejection; where as another is taking the break of; The Bottom Line Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis Pivot points are based on a simple calculation, and while they work for some traders, others may not find them useful. There is no assurance the price will stop at, reverse at, or even reach the levels created on the chart. Other times the price will move back and forth through a level. www.investopedia.com Here's another example of how they are used in one of our custom indicators - to help assess the current trend and various levels. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
6
BTC USDT correlationHello traders, I think those two charts are useful when used alongside each other in correlation. It is logical that decline in BTC price leads to inflow in USDT and vice versa. So we could say (and the chart shows, that the correlation between the price BTC and market cap of USDT is inversely proportional). For further simple explanation there are some events marked on the chart: Red Flag - A gap in USDT inflow probably shows that institutions are selling before BTC price declines. It is actually only the third candle on USDT when the selloff of the bitcoin occurs. Blue flag - USDT cap fails to pick up momentum and start going down significantly while BTC surges. Orange flag - USDT market cap is flatting out, fails to go lower low and starts forming local higher lows. BTC is still pushing higher, but the trend is converting to the broad bull channel/Trading range as more and more bears are buying into the shorts and more and more bulls are taking profits. Purple flag - BTC - huge rising wedge formed and wedges tend to break to the lower side. Lower high also formed and after. 3rd higher low formed and money starts to flow into USDT. Green flag - wedge top in USDT, while wedge bottom in BTC. Reversal on both charts. At the moment USDT market cap is in sharp decline, which might signal that BTC will be going much higher
Editors' picks
Education
by Sharkethics
23
What you may not realize...Over the last couple of months, I have posted several educational articles. This one is to show how some of the tools widely used in trading can actually fit together. I wrote a post a while ago about Dow Theory and how it fits into most modern technical analysis. Click on each link to get the in depth content from the posts When looking at a trend, cycle or major market move. The best place to start is from the biggest time frame available. This giving an overall bias for the overall trend, some people will refer to this as the monthly, super cycle, major trend. It basically means as large as you want. This can be based on your trading style, no point trying to obtain a bias on a minute chart. For me I like the bias based on monthly Elliott wave moves; Again click the image for the full post, at the bottom of this post in related ideas there is also basic level 2 Elliott. Once you have the bias we can work out exactly where we are, like one of those street maps in a city. We can use Fibonacci levels to drill down into potential areas of interest and targets for both the extensions and retracements. Here is another article posted recently as an intro to Fibonacci; Once you can identify potential areas of interest, you can drill down again into more advanced techniques such as Wyckoff. In Wyckoff terms - I wrote a couple of articles and recorded several streams on the logic for the BTC call at the top in the middle of February, before the "Rocket post in March" all based on the info mentioned above here. In this post, I covered the basics of Wyckoff and it's simple logic Before going into the types of schematics here below; The Wyckoff schematics is a little more advanced than the other techniques here, but when you know where you are in the cycle, they become a lot easier to identify. In the "related ideas" section I covered a chronology of education, covering other topics like buying the dips, MACD, Trendlines and Moving Averages. I hope this post gets you thinking about how it all fits and works together. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
10
The Best Way To Risk Let's consider two trading scenarios and learn how to use the R risk control system. The risk control system is the most important component of any strategy. A trader who takes risks irresponsibly has no right to expect a positive outcome in his long-term trading journey. The main principle of the approach is that the loss is always limited, but the profits are not. Considering in each trade, the stop loss is equal to 1R, in a profitable trade, one must get at least 2R. Scenario 1 (see graph) In the first scenario, a professional trader keeps track of the trades, controls risks and analyzes the results of the series. Scenario 2 (see graph) In the second scenario, the trader wants quick results, does not control position size, does not use stop orders, and trades on a whim. Risk R "R" - the amount of risk, a fixed amount in US dollars. In each trade, the stop loss is located at such a level from the entry point that the loss upon reaching it will not exceed the specified dollar amount. Example # 1 We have an entry point and a level where we want to place a stop loss Let's say the volume of trading capital is $1000 In each trade, we risk no more than 3% ($30 - for those that might say its too much - GO GET A JOB) of the capital Our R = $30 It follows that when the stop loss is reached, the loss will be no more than 1R ($30) Take profit should be positioned so that the risk to reward ratio is at least 1 to 2(since anything beyond 63% win rate is hardly sustainable in a long run). Accordingly, having learned the value of stop loss 1R, you need to multiply the figures by 2 and place a take profit by measuring from the entry point. Thus, when the price reaches our take profit, we will receive + 3R ($90) Example # 2 The risk per trade is $100 (1R = $100) Losing trade -1R (- $100) Profitable deal + 3R (+ $300) You make 110 trades, of which 75 are unprofitable, 35 are profitable 1R ($100) multiplied by 75 losing trades = - $7,500 3R ($300) multiplied by 35 profitable trades = + $10,500 Subtract the total loss from profit $10,500- $7,500 = $3,000 Series total: + $3,000 Example # 3 (crypto) You bought 100 coins at $1/coin and placed a stop loss at $0.95 per coin Your risk per trade R1 = ($5) Take profit is set at 1.15 per coin If you sell at the stop loss level, you will lose 1R = ($5) If you sell at the take profit level, you will earn 3R = ($15) Take all the "R" s in a given time, add them up and you have a pure "R" for your strategy. If the result is positive, then the strategy works, if negative, then you should think about replacing the strategy with a more effective one.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by UnknownUnicorn7223713
A technique from 1202 - Really? images Who was Fibonacci? Fibonacci (1170 – c. 1240–50), also known as Leonardo Bonacci, Leonardo of Pisa, or Leonardo Bigollo Pisano was an Italian mathematician from the Republic of Pisa, considered to be "the most talented Western mathematician of the Middle Ages". Fibonacci popularized the Hindu–Arabic numeral system in the Western world primarily through his composition in 1202 of Liber Abaci (Book of Calculation). He also introduced Europe to the sequence of Fibonacci numbers, which he used as an example in Liber Abaci. You may have seen this? This is what’s called the Golden ratio. I am not looking to go into depth on Fibonacci use cases, spirals, fans, arcs, circles, wedges and channels. However, it was important to mention so you can go away and do your own research on Fibonacci beyond this “welcome to” post. Why is this useful for trading? The Fibonacci sequence is quite possibly the most used tool in trading stocks, Forex, Commodities and even crypto. In mathematics, the Fibonacci numbers, commonly denoted Fnuch that each number is the sum of the two preceding ones, starting from 0 and 1. However, you are probably more familiar with Fibonacci extension and retracement levels. It’s all based on the same logic. Fibonacci numbers appear unexpectedly often in mathematics, so much so that there is an entire journal dedicated to their study, the Fibonacci Quarterly. Applications of Fibonacci numbers include computer algorithms such as the Fibonacci search technique and the Fibonacci heap data structure, and graphs called Fibonacci cubes used for interconnecting parallel and distributed systems. They also appear in biological settings, such as branching in trees, the arrangement of leaves on a stem, the fruit sprouts of a pineapple, the flowering of an artichoke, an uncurling fern, and the arrangement of a pine cone's bracts. Just look at this image once more! So what? The fact that these numbers appear in nature, it has clearly been adopted in art and architecture – this is due to the human desire for pattern recognition. It’s built into our DNA, the fact that we as a collective want to identify such patterns, will in fact drive charts. I have written articles on Elliott Waves - which again is quite possibly one of the biggest use cases for Fibonacci, definitely an easy way to see the powers at work. Here’s a link to one such article; How to use Them? If you have been trading for some time you are most likely familiar with Fibonacci techniques, if you are new, here is some basic logic to get you started. As mentioned above there are several tools for Fibonacci, as a new trader I would suggest only looking at extensions and retracements to start you off. Retracement These levels often work well as support and resistance, you will find opportunities to enter on pullbacks (retracements) against the overall trend. Common levels here are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50% (although it’s not technically a real fib level, another topic for another time) then of course the 61.8% and the 78.6%. How to draw these on the chart – you are looking for 3 points let’s assume A,B & C. You are looking for A to be at the start of your trend. Often this will be a swing low or high. Let’s assume we are looking at an uptrend and we want to see the pullback. A would be placed here as above. The next step is to use the extension tool and click A and drag to point B as below; and the pullback level; Now we have a move A to B we can start to look for areas of interest, in this example we can see the pullback was to the 38.2% level. Some people are critical on the levels, for me I like it to tag the level and if it goes a little deeper then I still like it, if it doesn’t tag the level I would round it down to the lower level. Meaning if it fails at say 37.9% I would like to still think of it as only the 23,6% fib level. But there is no hard and fast rule on this. Now this gives me A and B with a 38% pullback for C. One way to trade using this could be a simple Buy at the break of B with a stop “Below” C Not telling you this is what you should do, it’s just one method some do use. Obviously, you could increase the stop and put it under A instead. Difference between Retracement and Extensions? The data you gather by assessing the pullback becomes valuable when looking for potential targets, so whilst we used 2 touch points (A & B) for getting the retracement level, the most accurate extension forecasting tool would be to use all 3 (A, B and C). Although it can also be done by using only A and B as well, It’s another one of those not so clear rules. Whilst the retracement tool gives us the pullback, the extension will give us some target areas. Let’s start with the simple (not my preferred) method; This is known as the extensions – 2 points (A, B) drag the curser from A to B and click and then back to A and click off. With this method you will notice in your back-testing those areas of interest will often be at the 61.8% of the A to B move. This means if A + B = 100, then the target would be around 161-2. Also, the 100% of the A-B move giving a target example of 200 and lastly the 1.618 level. Giving a target of 261-2 level. Again, no hard fast rule. This is just something seen over and over again. Expansion levels To start with go from A to B with the extension tool and pullback to C and click off. Assume you are using @TradingView Much like the Extension you will notice similar characteristics of the moves up (in this example of the uptrend) Something interesting I mentioned above this is a great tool to use alongside Elliott Waves, here’s an example of how this works and can fit into the charts. In this image above we use the same A point as a starting point, B becomes the 1 and 2 becomes the C. We can then work the Fibonacci extension & expansion levels to determine where 3 is likely to go. And then we can use the retracement for the pullback for (4) as well as new extensions for the projection of the 5th wave. A few months back, I wrote an article here on tradingview on the psychology on the charts, it’s worth highlighting that here. Click the link/image to view the article; Nothing is 100% certain, but using these methods will help give you a better understanding of waves and swings, logic for pullbacks and reason for extension levels. I hope this helps someone out here! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Editors' picks
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
134
The greatest teacher, failure is.Why I add drawings to my TA - mostly as I have time and enjoy entertaining on serious topics. Brighten up the world of @TradingView for you guys. In the recent months since the Rocket call - (BTC Drop to 30k from 60k+) its been a slow steady burn on the weekly 3-4 move in terms of Elliott Wave. I have spent the time putting together some educational content as well as some of the defined logic for the drop itself, the moves down and of course the current situation. If you haven't been following the post, here are a few to help you along. 1) Elliott Roadmap (click the image for a link to the post) This is how it's playing out; 2) Wyckoff Distribution - during the move down, many people turned to "Wyckoff" as it was widely publicised by the media and the usual crypto GURU. The irony was, back in March they all had it as Re-Accumulation. (Click image for link to post) Taken this further and into stage 2 of the basics; (Click link) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3) I have written on the topic of assessment of alt coins, crypto in general and buying the dips. (click on the links again for posts) - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4) Streams; Myself or @Paul_Varcoe put out daily streams, Paul usually does the 10:30 AM (UK Time) and myself the 3:30 PM (UK Time) Recently we have been talking about the length of time, expectations and logic supporting the moves and dynamics. www.tradingview.com www.tradingview.com Paul's stream are done as a viewers request series, so go ask him what you want. If you dedicate the time to read through these articles above and watch the couple of streams posted here. It will all make sense, feel calm like Yoda. Enjoy your trading! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
23
How Central Banks Are Stealing Your MoneySince the merger between the Fed and the Treasury (kidding, kind of), I've had so many conversations with individuals outside of the financial industry who struggle to fully grasp how central banks are stealing their money. Today, I'm going to share a short and simple post which I hope will help explain the direct effect of "money printing," on the working class. Let's jump right into it. When interest rates remain low for an extended period of time (historically), risk assets become more prone to rampant speculation (lucky for those holding assets outside of cash), leading to massive distortions in the underlying fundamentals of those assets, and historical valuation deviations from the mean (which is mathematically unsustainable). The rapidily rising prices of both assets, and goods & services, which is not being stimulated by an actual increase in the velocity of money, but rather from central banks artificially flooding the monetary system with liquidity (while interest rates are near zero), contributes to a lower standard of living for those holding cash as their primary asset. For example: If you have $100 in your bank account, and perhaps this is your only asset, then the central bank increases the money supply by 25%, what they've just done is increase the denominator which underpins the value of that $100. Here's a simple logical demonstration: 100/100 = 1 (baseline purchasing power.) 100/125 = 0.80 (a 25% increase in the money supply in this example, as a result of central bank money printing, results in a 20% loss in purchasing power.) In essence, in this hypothetical situation, you've just lost 20% of your purchasing power. With CPI in the US running at 5.4% YoY vs the Fed's 2% "target," we're currently looking at an inflation rate almost triple the Fed's goal. The US10Y yield trades at 1.25% while CPI is 5.4%, and the Fed continues to print $1.44 Trillion on an annualized basis, with no end in sight. Welcome to the wonderfully horrific world of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Anyone looking for a hedge?
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by Hedge_Of_The_World
13
Using Volume & Open Interest data as secondary indicatorsIf you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Any feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis! Several chartists use the approach of price-action to predict the market movements. Some include volume too. However, most professional traders prefer using a multidimensional approach to market analysis. Price, Volume and Open Interest are the 3 dimensions which are carefully evaluated by these traders. Open Interest The total number of outstanding or unliquidated contracts at the end of the day is referred to as Open Interest. It represents the total number of outstanding longs or shorts in the market. Please note: It is not the summation of both It is the number of contracts. Every contract needs 2 parties- a buyer and a seller. Hence, two parties agreeing on trade forms 1 contract. The open interest figures change every day. These changes such as increase or decrease in OI give the traders a clue as to how the market might behave next. Few days back, during the end of the weekend, you might have heard that BTC rallied such violently after a short squeeze, where a lot of the short positions got liquidated. That is nothing but an aspect of the Open Interest. With every trade that goes through, the OI might: Increase Decrease Stay unchanged These changes are discussed in Table 1. If both the buyer and seller are initiating a new position, a new contract gets established. If buyer is initiating a new long position, while the seller liquidates an old long, the number of contract remains unchanged. Similarly, if the buyer liquidates an old position, while the seller initiates a new position, OI doesn’t change. If both traders are liquidating old positions, the OI goes down. These changes in OI allow traders to predict the market momentum. Most traders use OI in conjunction with ‘Volume’ and ‘Price’. To understand, what these changes in OI, we take a look at table 2. Presently, we have seen the markets entering a long term consolidation. A build-up in open interest during consolidation periods intensifies the ensuing breakout. 95% of traders follow the same technical indicators. Hence, the bigger players tend to use this fact to their advantage. I would like to conclude the analysis by stating that: The markets can continue to be irrational as long it deems fit. No analysis is sacrosanct! "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets" by John J. Murphy talks about different aspects in detail. The above analysis has been researched and referenced from different parts of the book. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Keep supporting:) -Mudrex
Editors' picks
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mudrex
70
BTC- 4 TH WAVE CONSOLIDATION DETAILED STUDYEven though i tried my wave count to convince the BTC bulls, it is not possible for me to deviate from NW rules in time cycles. Wave 4 has to to take equal time as wave 3 taken, if you apply this rule ,we have more time left to finish wave 4, So far wave 'A' of wave 4 completed in 5 waves (wxyxz), therefore wave B will resume fastly ,DON'T assume it as 5 th wave Because after wave 'B', BTC bears will start selling to complete the final wave 'C' until 25th OCT,2021. Since wave A is 5 segmet(motive) waves,the retracement of B is limited to 61.8%(47895)(2nd AUG) Wave C must be of 5 wave down after wave B with a minimum target of 25300. Hence 5 th wave will resume from NOV,21
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by selvamB
Trading in a trend▪ Trade in the direction of the trend with swings and scalp trades, ♤Swing trade zone ▪High volatility area and big impulsive movement ■How to identify? High volume and big candles (green/red flags) ♤Scalp trade zone ▪Flat zone, price develops in lower timeframes, ■How to identify? Large dumping candles followed spikes (brown drops) ♤Trend reversal ▪Zone of many traps and H.Lows in daily timeframe, ■How to identify? Extremely positive news at the top (BTC going to 100k) or very negative on a bottom (blockchain is over, BTC $600) Hope it helps!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by JARJAR20
1
Ramblin' Raccoon: Divergences Explained by a RaccoonThis video is my attempt at simplifying and clarifying how to identify and spot divergences. THE MAIN TAKE AWAY: Bearish divergences are spotted by using the peaks of price and oscillators. Bullish divergences are spotted by using the valleys of price and oscillators. Bullish Divergence is actually a convergence. (wedgey) Bearish Divergence is a true divergence. (expandy) Hidden Bullish Divergence is a convergence.(expandy) Hidden Bearish Divergence is actually a convergence. (wedgey) Bearish/Bullish Divergences are potential reversals. Hidden Bearish/Bullish Divergences are potential continuations.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by GR3ND3L
Bitcoin Wyckoff [Accumulation & Distribution] — ⚠️Possible 24000This trading method was developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 1930s. It consists of a series of principles and strategies originally designed for traders and investors. Wyckoff devoted much of his life to studying market behaviour, and his work still influences much of modern technical analysis (TA). Currently, the Wyckoff method is applied to all types of financial markets, although it was originally focused only on stocks, but I find it amazingly good on cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin During the creation of his work, Wyckoff was inspired by the trading methods of other successful traders (especially Jesse L. Livermore). Today he is in the same respect as other key figures such as Charles H. Doe and Ralph N. Elliott. Wyckoff's Three Laws The law of supply and demand The first law states that the value of assets begins to rise when demand exceeds supply, and accordingly falls in the opposite order. This is one of the most basic principles in the financial markets, which does not exclude Wyckoff in his works. We can represent the first law as three simple equations: Demand > Supply = Price Increases Demand < Supply = Price Falls Demand = supply = no significant price change (low volatility) In other words, Wyckoff's First Law assumes that the excess of demand over supply leads to higher prices, since there are more buyers than sellers. But in a situation where there are more sales than purchases, and supply exceeds demand, it indicates a further drop in value. Many investors who use the Wyckoff method correlate price movement with bar volume as a way to better visualize the relationship between supply and demand. This often helps to predict the future movement of the market. Personally I recommend use higher timeframes and indicators like ADL and Stochastic RSI. The law of cause The second law states that the differences between supply and demand are not coincidences. Instead, they reflect preparatory actions as a result of certain events. In Wyckoff's terminology, the accumulation period (cause) ultimately leads to an uptrend (effect). In turn, the distribution period (reason) provokes the development of a downtrend (consequence). Wyckoff used a unique technique of plotting patterns on charts to assess the potential consequences for specific causes. In other words, he created methods for determining trading targets based on periods of accumulation and distribution. This allowed him to assess the likely expansion of the market trend after exiting the consolidation zone or trading range (TR). The Law of the Connection of Efforts and Results Wyckoff's Third Law states that changes in price are the result of total effort that is reflected in trading volume. In the case when the growth of the asset value corresponds to the high trading volume, there is a high probability that the trend will continue its movement. But if the volumes are too small at a high price, the growth will most likely stop and the trend may change its direction. For example, let's imagine that the bitcoin market starts to consolidate with very high volume after a long bearish trend. High trading volumes indicate more demand, but sideways movement (low volatility) suggests little outcome. If a large number of bitcoins change hands and the price does not fall significantly, this may indicate that the downtrend may end and there will soon be a reversal. To sum up, the Wyckoff Method allows investors to make smarter and more logical decisions without relying on their emotional state. His extensive work provides traders and investors with a range of tools to reduce risk and increase their chances of success. However, there is no single, reliable methodology when it comes to investment. You should always approach all trades with caution and take into account all potential risks, especially in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market. Best regards Artem Shevelev
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by ArShevelev
25
BASICS OF SCALPING Scalping is a term used to denote the "skimming" of small profits on a regular basis, by going in and out of positions several times per day. It is always helpful to trade with the trend, at least if you are a beginner scalper. To discover the trend, set up a weekly and a daily time chart and insert trend lines , Fibonacci levels, and moving averages. These are your "lines in the sand," so to speak, and will represent support and resistance areas. If your charts show the trend to be in an upward bias (the prices are sloping from the bottom left of your chart to the top right), then you will want to buy at all the support levels should they be reached. 1. Use lower stakes: The common rule is never to risk more than 2% of your initial deposit on a single trade 2. Minimize losses: As a scalper, you will probably make a lot of trades in a day, and the truth is that not even the best traders in the world have a 100% success rate. The key to earning good money with scalping is to minimize your losses, on the losing trades you make. The holy grail formula for scalping is 2:1 ratio. What does this mean? It means that the setup you're looking for should help you make at least double the amount of potential loss. 3. Master specific strategies: scalping is not meant for amateur traders, but seasoned traders who have tested and mastered specific strategies which have worked out for the best 4. Select the appropriate timeframe: The maximum recommended timeframe for a scalper is the 1-hour chart, but you will make more use of the 1-minute, 5-minute and 15-minute charts 5. Control the number of simultaneous trades 6. Get in an ideal frame of mind: If you are unable to concentrate for any reason, do not scalp. Late nights, illness symptoms, and other distractions may frequently knock you off your game. If you've had a series of losses, you should stop trading and take some time to recover. Do not seek vengeance on the market. Scalping may be enjoyable and difficult, but it can also be frustrating and exhausting. You must be certain that you have the personality to engage in high-stakes activities. Remember, Scalping is not for everyone. This is a difficult technique that requires the right temperament. Scalpers must enjoy sitting in front of their computers for the duration of the session, as well as the extreme focus required.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by MoonBets
7
Buy at the tops & sell the bottoms! Richard Ney spoke about think of the market like a warehouse, the owners of the warehouse CM (composite man) needs to fill the building with inventory, they need to sell some as they acquire more - issuing news releases of their grand launch. But their whole objective is to buy at the wholesale rate & sell at retail prices. Think of this in a simple chronology form; Strong hands buy cheap and sell at a higher price – to the retail clients, willing to pay more. This is usually due to the retail buying the tops and selling the bottoms. If you take a look at the CryptoQuant chart - replicated from their site, into @TradingView You will notice the drop off towards the end of Feb. this was in essence the buyers climax. I’ve had several people ask – why would the big boys bail at 40k? Again, you need to think of the wholesale/retail scenario. CM buys low and sells high, retail buy high and sell low. If you apply some Elliott logic here, you will see we were at a weekly 3 & that was finished with a daily 5 – giving the need of a correction (in Warehouse terms) selling inventory, in trading lingo – it’s distribution. Here I posted the map in March; As you can see it played out as expected. Let’s go back to the Wholesale logic by Mr Ney; This is by far the easiest way to think about it. The primary goal of composite man (the market maker) or in the warehouse owner. Is to make money. To do this, they acquire stock or BTC and fill their warehouse(fund). In the accumulation phase, CM (Composite man) needs enough inventory to make it worthwhile, making demand – you will see positive news, attracting the retail to the store. The whole process is about supply and demand. Does he have enough supply for the demand? The warehouse will not be filled with only one truck – it will take several months and multiple deliveries to accumulate enough stock/BTC. Then the emphasis is put on mass marketing! Think a Musk tweet, positive news and so on! Attracting retail buyers – who now have confidence in the product on sale as it’s shot up recently. Supply seemingly limited and demand high! As buyers buy – CM is selling as seen by the Blockfi wallet image above. Price driven up as supply becomes exhausted and demand is peaked! Now what? – well Price is too much for CM to want to buy anything back at an ATH. He wants it back at a new fair value – wholesale price. So, the best thing to do is – cause a little fear and doubt, a political statement or a tweet or two in today’s world. The media is basically yesterday’s news, tomorrow. But so many people buy into it and that allows for the puppeteering. And this is known as the distribution phase. We are now at a 1,3 or 5 Elliott wave. Let’s go with only at 1 in Elliott terms. CM can’t frighten retail too much and needs to keep the dream alive. Or there would be no dumb money buying into the next rally. So, the distribution & re-accumulation phase often blends in the 2nd wave of an Elliott move. If you look inside, you will see the ABC type moves giving hope to retail and gathering a strong position to go again. All CM is doing is filling the shelves in the warehouse. He continues to buy new inventory and sell the old (hedging) And once there’s enough supply to make a new campaign – off he goes, selling to the world. If news is bad at the highs, retail suckers would not buy anymore & CM would be left carrying the weight. Instead, the news is good, knowing a drop is imminent. The same applies at the bottom, if news is good – then retail will be buying in preparation for a move up. CM knows how to balance these moves without showing his hand. It’s knowing that retail fools – will always try to catch the bottom and stay in until the top. And you wonder why it is that retail lose 75% of the time or more! CM simply takes advantage of the retail’s fear and greed. I recently wrote another TradingView article on emotional analysis. This explains a little as to why Elliott, Wyckoff and Dow theory are still used today. The logic from re-accumulation or Elliott 2 – goes on into 3, down to 4 and then up to 5. Before the cycle is completed and a new cycle starts. We cover this in more depth with the education. But I hope you get the general idea here. Enjoy the rest of the weekend! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
47
Un-Common Sense...I have recently recorded a video titled “Fear + Greed = Stupidity” I would say that lack of patience is the number one problem of traders who have come to me for mentoring or education over the years doing this. There is a term used in the industry known as the 90-90-90 rule; 90% of traders, lose 90% of their money in 90 days. Just think about that for a second! There are two types of money, 'smart money' and 'dumb money'. You, 'retail' traders are 'dumb money'. The investment banks and institutions consider themselves the 'smart money'. Their job is only to move the dumb money into the pockets of the smart money, and they do this every day, all day long. (making the rich richer & the poor ...............well broke). It amazes me, that it takes several years to go through university for many professions, yet the assumption is that you can work part time as a trader (after the 9-5) and come and dominate in crypto or FX – and we wonder why 90% lose 90% of their money in 90 days… In order to make money in the markets, you need liquidity. The 'dumb money' provides the liquidity that the 'smart money' uses to get in and out of trades. Trading is a zero-sum game, every single penny you make is because some other poor soul lost it. For every buyer there's a seller and vice-versa (in an efficient liquid market). Have a read of this little parable by @Paul_Varcoe Think of the ‘business model’ of the exchanges and brokers; many have built their empires on this one simple rule – they are happy to give leveraged accounts to people as they know it’s only ‘dumb money’ that take them up on the offer, pushing people into the funnel is a repetitive cycle. Many brokers offer commission to introducers for what’s known as “FTD’s” first time deposits. Some offer introducers commission on spreads. They know all too well; the dumb money pouring in is the fuel for the machine. Humans are naturally designed to lose; we have the fear of being hurt and the welcoming of pleasure, this goes on to create more endorphins. So, when we see a red P&L or open position, we naturally want it green so we leave the losses run. On the HOPE of it coming back. But when we are green, we cut the profits for the FEAR of it turning red. Again, step back and have a think about this point. Now combine what I have just said above; Fear + Greed = Stupidity and smart money are here to make you broke, as well as the fact that exchanges have based their business off the 90-90-90 rule. What to do about it? 1. Do you use wide stops? If so, you’re just making the brokers rich and guaranteeing losses on your part. After all, the market always trades towards the stops. How else will it shake out all the weak players before making the real move? Using the right techniques, you can learn to enter and manage your risk a whole lot better. Many “gurus” will be teaching methods that most retail traders fall for, this is another machine for making money off dumb money. I have seen these educators talk about not using stops or trading standard off the shelf tools. You ever hear some guru say "The price is about to break support off the back of a hanging man, RSI is overbought and price broke out of the Bollinger band channel. It has also crossed under the 21-week EMA" (or some other shait like this), just remember that the price doesn't care, it'll go wherever the composite man needs it to go... 2. Statistics show there are certain times to trade various chart formations, stochastic are great in ranging markets and RSI are better suited for trending conditions. All of the dumb money are busy trading RSI in range bound markets as it’s the only tool they know how to use. Knowing when to use tools will go a long way – you get to a point of not really needing them, but until then acquire some more tools for the tool-box. A screwdriver is no good for hammering in a nail. 3. Do you know when to reverse your position? Since the market loves to catch everyone going the wrong way, this is a great and highly profitable tactic, but you have to know how and when to do it. I had a ton of people tell me how wrong I was on the call made in March for BTC – perma bulls, in an exhausted market. Glad to say my 30k call for the drop from 62,500 was on point. Over shot by 2k, but what’s that among friends? (See rocket post, in the related ideas) You have to work the market both ways, or at least learn to sit out during the corrective phases. They do happen from time to time! 4. Making a plan – people are busy trying to catch the bottom, this is reminiscent of that lego batman scene “first time” after several attempts of calling the bottom. They will be right at some point. The number of posts on TradingView calling the BTC spring in the most recent drop – scary. When building a plan, it should be focused on risk management and a systematic approach for both entries and exit. I would much rather catch 60-80% of the swing with high probability, than try to obtain the full A to B move with little possibility. 5. I encourage the traders I mentor to “Trade less. Earn more.” You need to learn that its better to make a bit with 95% certainty than to try to make 100% with only a 10% chance of hitting the home run! And in this way you keep your liquidity costs low and add to your earnings at the end of the year. If you’re looking to trade crypto – take a look at this; On the psychology side; And finally here’s the logic for why the cycles can last a “little longer” – see yesterday’s stream! www.tradingview.com Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Editors' picks
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
98