Z-Score Pairs TradingTitle: Z-Score Pairs Trading Indicator
Description:
This indicator implements a Z-score based pairs trading strategy, allowing traders to identify potential statistical arbitrage opportunities between two selected assets.
Key Features:
- Calculates Z-score for the price difference between any two user-selected symbols
- Visualizes Z-score with customizable thresholds for signals
- Generates long and short signals based on extreme Z-score values
- Adaptable to various markets including stocks, ETFs, and commodities
How It Works:
1. The indicator calculates the price difference between two selected symbols.
2. It then computes the Z-score of this difference, showing how far the current spread deviates from its historical average.
3. When the Z-score exceeds set thresholds (default ±2), the indicator generates trading signals.
Settings:
- Symbol A and Symbol B: Select any two tradable symbols to compare
- Lookback Period: Number of periods for calculating the moving average and standard deviation
Interpretation:
- Z-score above 2: Potential short signal (pair is likely overextended)
- Z-score below -2: Potential long signal (pair is likely oversold)
- Z-score between -2 and 2: Normal trading range, no signals
Visual Aids:
- Blue line: Z-score
- Dashed lines: Threshold levels at 0, ±1, and ±2
- Green triangles: Long signals
- Red triangles: Short signals
Disclaimer:
This indicator is for educational and research purposes only. Trading carries a high level of risk. Always conduct your own analysis and manage your risk appropriately before entering any trade.
Made by @marekfleisi
Portfolio management
Futures Beta Overview with Different BenchmarksBeta Trading and Its Implementation with Futures
Understanding Beta
Beta is a measure of a security's volatility in relation to the overall market. It represents the sensitivity of the asset's returns to movements in the market, typically benchmarked against an index like the S&P 500. A beta of 1 indicates that the asset moves in line with the market, while a beta greater than 1 suggests higher volatility and potential risk, and a beta less than 1 indicates lower volatility.
The Beta Trading Strategy
Beta trading involves creating positions that exploit the discrepancies between the theoretical (or expected) beta of an asset and its actual market performance. The strategy often includes:
Long Positions on High Beta Assets: Investors might take long positions in assets with high beta when they expect market conditions to improve, as these assets have the potential to generate higher returns.
Short Positions on Low Beta Assets: Conversely, shorting low beta assets can be a strategy when the market is expected to decline, as these assets tend to perform better in down markets compared to high beta assets.
Betting Against (Bad) Beta
The paper "Betting Against Beta" by Frazzini and Pedersen (2014) provides insights into a trading strategy that involves betting against high beta stocks in favor of low beta stocks. The authors argue that high beta stocks do not provide the expected return premium over time, and that low beta stocks can yield higher risk-adjusted returns.
Key Points from the Paper:
Risk Premium: The authors assert that investors irrationally demand a higher risk premium for holding high beta stocks, leading to an overpricing of these assets. Conversely, low beta stocks are often undervalued.
Empirical Evidence: The paper presents empirical evidence showing that portfolios of low beta stocks outperform portfolios of high beta stocks over long periods. The performance difference is attributed to the irrational behavior of investors who overvalue riskier assets.
Market Conditions: The paper suggests that the underperformance of high beta stocks is particularly pronounced during market downturns, making low beta stocks a more attractive investment during volatile periods.
Implementation of the Strategy with Futures
Futures contracts can be used to implement the betting against beta strategy due to their ability to provide leveraged exposure to various asset classes. Here’s how the strategy can be executed using futures:
Identify High and Low Beta Futures: The first step involves identifying futures contracts that have high beta characteristics (more sensitive to market movements) and those with low beta characteristics (less sensitive). For example, commodity futures like crude oil or agricultural products might exhibit high beta due to their price volatility, while Treasury bond futures might show lower beta.
Construct a Portfolio: Investors can construct a portfolio that goes long on low beta futures and short on high beta futures. This can involve trading contracts on stock indices for high beta stocks and bonds for low beta exposures.
Leverage and Risk Management: Futures allow for leverage, which means that a small movement in the underlying asset can lead to significant gains or losses. Proper risk management is essential, using stop-loss orders and position sizing to mitigate the inherent risks associated with leveraged trading.
Adjusting Positions: The positions may need to be adjusted based on market conditions and the ongoing performance of the futures contracts. Continuous monitoring and rebalancing of the portfolio are essential to maintain the desired risk profile.
Performance Evaluation: Finally, investors should regularly evaluate the performance of the portfolio to ensure it aligns with the expected outcomes of the betting against beta strategy. Metrics like the Sharpe ratio can be used to assess the risk-adjusted returns of the portfolio.
Conclusion
Beta trading, particularly the strategy of betting against high beta assets, presents a compelling approach to capitalizing on market inefficiencies. The research by Frazzini and Pedersen emphasizes the benefits of focusing on low beta assets, which can yield more favorable risk-adjusted returns over time. When implemented using futures, this strategy can provide a flexible and efficient means to execute trades while managing risks effectively.
References
Frazzini, A., & Pedersen, L. H. (2014). Betting against beta. Journal of Financial Economics, 111(1), 1-25.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1992). The cross-section of expected stock returns. Journal of Finance, 47(2), 427-465.
Black, F. (1972). Capital Market Equilibrium with Restricted Borrowing. Journal of Business, 45(3), 444-454.
Ang, A., & Chen, J. (2010). Asymmetric volatility: Evidence from the stock and bond markets. Journal of Financial Economics, 99(1), 60-80.
By utilizing the insights from academic literature and implementing a disciplined trading strategy, investors can effectively navigate the complexities of beta trading in the futures market.
Risk Reward CalculatorPlanning your trading is an important step that you must do before buying the stock.
Risk and Reward Calculator is an important tool for the trader.
With this calculator, you only need to put the capital for one trade and it will automaticaly put the plan for you. But if you want to enter your plan for buy and sell, you just need to check the button and enter the number. the risk and reward calculator will suggest position size based on the information.
The Steps to use Risk Reward Calculator
1. enter how many percentage you can accept if your analysis is wrong.
2. enter how much money you want to trade
3. it will automaticaly calculate the plan for you
4. you can change the reward
5. but if you want to enter your own number, you can check the box. After that enter the number you want for your new plan.
Risk Manage Position SizerThis is a risk management tool for traders. It calculates position sizes based on account balance and risk tolerance, and provides automated stop-loss suggestions. The script displays key information in a small table on the chart and plots important price levels.
How to use it:
Input Parameters:
Account Size: Enter your total trading account balance.
Risk Percentage: Set the percentage of your account you're willing to risk per trade.
Use Custom Stop Loss: Toggle this to use a manually entered stop loss price.
Custom Stop Loss Price: If enabled, enter your desired stop loss price.
Reading the Table:
The table displays:
Current Price
Stop Loss Price
Total Position Size (number of shares/contracts to trade)
1/3 Position Size (for scaling in/out)
Auto Stop 1, 2, and 3 (suggested stop loss levels)
Chart Indicators:
Red Line: Your stop loss level
Green Line: Auto Stop 1 (33% of range from entry to stop)
Yellow Line: Auto Stop 2 (67% of range)
Red Line: Auto Stop 3 (final stop, same as initial stop loss)
Trading Application:
Use the Total Position Size to determine how many shares/contracts to trade.
Consider using the 1/3 Position Size for scaling in or out of trades.
Use the Auto Stops to manage your risk as the trade progresses.
Customization:
Adjust the input parameters to fit your trading style and risk tolerance.
The script can be modified to add more features or change the calculation methods if needed.
This tool helps traders make more informed decisions about position sizing and stop placement, potentially improving risk management in their trading strategy. Remember, while this script provides suggestions, all trading decisions should be made based on your own analysis and risk tolerance.
Industry Group StrengthThe Industry Group Strength indicator is designed to help traders identify the best-performing stocks within specific industry groups. The movement of individual stocks is often closely tied to the overall performance of their industry. By focusing on industry groups, this indicator allows you to find the top-performing stocks within an industry.
Thanks to a recent Pine Script update, an indicator like this is now possible. Special thanks to @PineCoders for introducing the dynamic requests feature.
How this indicator works:
The indicator contains predefined lists of stocks for each industry group. To be included in these lists, stocks must meet the following basic filters:
Market capitalization over 2B
Price greater than $10
Primary listing status
Once the relevant stocks are filtered, the indicator automatically recognizes the industry group of the current stock displayed on the chart. It then retrieves and displays data for that entire industry group.
Data Points Available:
The user can choose between three different data points to rank and compare stocks:
YTD (Year-To-Date) Return: Measures how much a stock has gained or lost since the start of the year.
RS Rating: A relative strength rating for a user-selected lookback period (explained below).
% Return: The percentage return over a user-selected lookback period.
Stock Ranking:
Stocks are ranked based on their performance within their respective industry groups, allowing users to easily identify which stocks are leading or lagging behind others in the same sector.
Visualization:
The indicator presents stocks in a table format, with performance metrics displayed both as text labels and color-coded lines. The color gradient represents the percentile rank, making it visually clear which stocks are outperforming or underperforming within their industry group.
Relative Strength (RS):
Relative Strength (RS) measures a stock’s performance relative to a benchmark, typically the S&P 500 (the default setting). It is calculated by dividing the closing price of the stock by the closing price of the S&P 500.
If the stock rises while the S&P 500 falls, or if the stock rises more sharply than the S&P 500, the RS value increases. Conversely, if the stock falls while the S&P 500 rises, the RS value decreases. This indicator normalizes the RS value into a range from 1 to 99, allowing for easier comparison across different stocks, regardless of their raw performance. This normalized RS value helps traders quickly assess how a stock is performing relative to others.
Options Strategy Straddle StrangleThe "Options Strategy Straddle Strangle" indicator is designed to assist traders in identifying and executing optimal options trading strategies by leveraging the foundational principles of option greeks. This tool focuses on two prevalent strategies in options trading: straddles and strangles, providing a systematic approach to determining appropriate strike prices based on real-time market data.
At its core, the indicator calculates strike prices by analyzing key option greeks, including Delta, Gamma, Theta, and Vega. By evaluating these sensitivities, the tool assesses the potential risks and rewards associated with different strike prices, ensuring that the selected levels align with the trader's specified thresholds. Users can input their desired thresholds for each greek, allowing for a customized approach that reflects individual risk tolerance and market outlook.
Once the thresholds are set, the indicator applies its underlying logic to filter and identify the most suitable strike prices for both straddle and strangle strategies. A straddle involves purchasing both a call and a put option at the same strike price, benefiting from significant price movements in either direction. Conversely, a strangle involves buying a call and a put option at different strike prices, which can be more cost-effective while still capitalizing on substantial market shifts.
The output of the "Options Strategy Straddle Strangle" indicator is presented in a clear and organized table format. This table displays the recommended strike prices for implementing either a straddle or a strangle strategy, based on the current market conditions and the predefined greek thresholds. By providing this information in an accessible manner, the indicator enables traders to make informed decisions quickly, enhancing their ability to respond to market volatility effectively.
Note:
Used methodology of the following indicator:
Universal Ratio Trend Matrix [InvestorUnknown]The Universal Ratio Trend Matrix is designed for trend analysis on asset/asset ratios, supporting up to 40 different assets. Its primary purpose is to help identify which assets are outperforming others within a selection, providing a broad overview of market trends through a matrix of ratios. The indicator automatically expands the matrix based on the number of assets chosen, simplifying the process of comparing multiple assets in terms of performance.
Key features include the ability to choose from a narrow selection of indicators to perform the ratio trend analysis, allowing users to apply well-defined metrics to their comparison.
Drawback: Due to the computational intensity involved in calculating ratios across many assets, the indicator has a limitation related to loading speed. TradingView has time limits for calculations, and for users on the basic (free) plan, this could result in frequent errors due to exceeded time limits. To use the indicator effectively, users with any paid plans should run it on timeframes higher than 8h (the lowest timeframe on which it managed to load with 40 assets), as lower timeframes may not reliably load.
Indicators:
RSI_raw: Simple function to calculate the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of a source (asset price).
RSI_sma: Calculates RSI followed by a Simple Moving Average (SMA).
RSI_ema: Calculates RSI followed by an Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
CCI: Calculates the Commodity Channel Index (CCI).
Fisher: Implements the Fisher Transform to normalize prices.
Utility Functions:
f_remove_exchange_name: Strips the exchange name from asset tickers (e.g., "INDEX:BTCUSD" to "BTCUSD").
f_remove_exchange_name(simple string name) =>
string parts = str.split(name, ":")
string result = array.size(parts) > 1 ? array.get(parts, 1) : name
result
f_get_price: Retrieves the closing price of a given asset ticker using request.security().
f_constant_src: Checks if the source data is constant by comparing multiple consecutive values.
Inputs:
General settings allow users to select the number of tickers for analysis (used_assets) and choose the trend indicator (RSI, CCI, Fisher, etc.).
Table settings customize how trend scores are displayed in terms of text size, header visibility, highlighting options, and top-performing asset identification.
The script includes inputs for up to 40 assets, allowing the user to select various cryptocurrencies (e.g., BTCUSD, ETHUSD, SOLUSD) or other assets for trend analysis.
Price Arrays:
Price values for each asset are stored in variables (price_a1 to price_a40) initialized as na. These prices are updated only for the number of assets specified by the user (used_assets).
Trend scores for each asset are stored in separate arrays
// declare price variables as "na"
var float price_a1 = na, var float price_a2 = na, var float price_a3 = na, var float price_a4 = na, var float price_a5 = na
var float price_a6 = na, var float price_a7 = na, var float price_a8 = na, var float price_a9 = na, var float price_a10 = na
var float price_a11 = na, var float price_a12 = na, var float price_a13 = na, var float price_a14 = na, var float price_a15 = na
var float price_a16 = na, var float price_a17 = na, var float price_a18 = na, var float price_a19 = na, var float price_a20 = na
var float price_a21 = na, var float price_a22 = na, var float price_a23 = na, var float price_a24 = na, var float price_a25 = na
var float price_a26 = na, var float price_a27 = na, var float price_a28 = na, var float price_a29 = na, var float price_a30 = na
var float price_a31 = na, var float price_a32 = na, var float price_a33 = na, var float price_a34 = na, var float price_a35 = na
var float price_a36 = na, var float price_a37 = na, var float price_a38 = na, var float price_a39 = na, var float price_a40 = na
// create "empty" arrays to store trend scores
var a1_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a2_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a3_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a4_array = array.new_int(40, 0)
var a5_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a6_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a7_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a8_array = array.new_int(40, 0)
var a9_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a10_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a11_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a12_array = array.new_int(40, 0)
var a13_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a14_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a15_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a16_array = array.new_int(40, 0)
var a17_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a18_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a19_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a20_array = array.new_int(40, 0)
var a21_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a22_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a23_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a24_array = array.new_int(40, 0)
var a25_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a26_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a27_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a28_array = array.new_int(40, 0)
var a29_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a30_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a31_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a32_array = array.new_int(40, 0)
var a33_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a34_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a35_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a36_array = array.new_int(40, 0)
var a37_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a38_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a39_array = array.new_int(40, 0), var a40_array = array.new_int(40, 0)
f_get_price(simple string ticker) =>
request.security(ticker, "", close)
// Prices for each USED asset
f_get_asset_price(asset_number, ticker) =>
if (used_assets >= asset_number)
f_get_price(ticker)
else
na
// overwrite empty variables with the prices if "used_assets" is greater or equal to the asset number
if barstate.isconfirmed // use barstate.isconfirmed to avoid "na prices" and calculation errors that result in empty cells in the table
price_a1 := f_get_asset_price(1, asset1), price_a2 := f_get_asset_price(2, asset2), price_a3 := f_get_asset_price(3, asset3), price_a4 := f_get_asset_price(4, asset4)
price_a5 := f_get_asset_price(5, asset5), price_a6 := f_get_asset_price(6, asset6), price_a7 := f_get_asset_price(7, asset7), price_a8 := f_get_asset_price(8, asset8)
price_a9 := f_get_asset_price(9, asset9), price_a10 := f_get_asset_price(10, asset10), price_a11 := f_get_asset_price(11, asset11), price_a12 := f_get_asset_price(12, asset12)
price_a13 := f_get_asset_price(13, asset13), price_a14 := f_get_asset_price(14, asset14), price_a15 := f_get_asset_price(15, asset15), price_a16 := f_get_asset_price(16, asset16)
price_a17 := f_get_asset_price(17, asset17), price_a18 := f_get_asset_price(18, asset18), price_a19 := f_get_asset_price(19, asset19), price_a20 := f_get_asset_price(20, asset20)
price_a21 := f_get_asset_price(21, asset21), price_a22 := f_get_asset_price(22, asset22), price_a23 := f_get_asset_price(23, asset23), price_a24 := f_get_asset_price(24, asset24)
price_a25 := f_get_asset_price(25, asset25), price_a26 := f_get_asset_price(26, asset26), price_a27 := f_get_asset_price(27, asset27), price_a28 := f_get_asset_price(28, asset28)
price_a29 := f_get_asset_price(29, asset29), price_a30 := f_get_asset_price(30, asset30), price_a31 := f_get_asset_price(31, asset31), price_a32 := f_get_asset_price(32, asset32)
price_a33 := f_get_asset_price(33, asset33), price_a34 := f_get_asset_price(34, asset34), price_a35 := f_get_asset_price(35, asset35), price_a36 := f_get_asset_price(36, asset36)
price_a37 := f_get_asset_price(37, asset37), price_a38 := f_get_asset_price(38, asset38), price_a39 := f_get_asset_price(39, asset39), price_a40 := f_get_asset_price(40, asset40)
Universal Indicator Calculation (f_calc_score):
This function allows switching between different trend indicators (RSI, CCI, Fisher) for flexibility.
It uses a switch-case structure to calculate the indicator score, where a positive trend is denoted by 1 and a negative trend by 0. Each indicator has its own logic to determine whether the asset is trending up or down.
// use switch to allow "universality" in indicator selection
f_calc_score(source, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2) =>
int score = na
if (not f_constant_src(source)) and source > 0.0 // Skip if you are using the same assets for ratio (for example BTC/BTC)
x = switch trend_indicator
"RSI (Raw)" => RSI_raw(source, int_1)
"RSI (SMA)" => RSI_sma(source, int_1, int_2)
"RSI (EMA)" => RSI_ema(source, int_1, int_2)
"CCI" => CCI(source, int_1)
"Fisher" => Fisher(source, int_1)
y = switch trend_indicator
"RSI (Raw)" => x > 50 ? 1 : 0
"RSI (SMA)" => x > 50 ? 1 : 0
"RSI (EMA)" => x > 50 ? 1 : 0
"CCI" => x > 0 ? 1 : 0
"Fisher" => x > x ? 1 : 0
score := y
else
score := 0
score
Array Setting Function (f_array_set):
This function populates an array with scores calculated for each asset based on a base price (p_base) divided by the prices of the individual assets.
It processes multiple assets (up to 40), calling the f_calc_score function for each.
// function to set values into the arrays
f_array_set(a_array, p_base) =>
array.set(a_array, 0, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a1, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 1, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a2, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 2, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a3, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 3, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a4, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 4, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a5, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 5, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a6, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 6, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a7, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 7, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a8, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 8, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a9, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 9, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a10, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 10, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a11, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 11, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a12, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 12, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a13, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 13, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a14, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 14, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a15, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 15, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a16, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 16, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a17, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 17, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a18, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 18, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a19, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 19, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a20, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 20, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a21, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 21, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a22, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 22, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a23, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 23, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a24, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 24, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a25, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 25, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a26, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 26, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a27, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 27, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a28, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 28, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a29, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 29, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a30, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 30, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a31, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 31, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a32, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 32, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a33, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 33, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a34, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 34, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a35, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 35, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a36, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 36, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a37, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 37, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a38, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 38, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a39, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
array.set(a_array, 39, f_calc_score(p_base / price_a40, trend_indicator, int_1, int_2))
a_array
Conditional Array Setting (f_arrayset):
This function checks if the number of used assets is greater than or equal to a specified number before populating the arrays.
// only set values into arrays for USED assets
f_arrayset(asset_number, a_array, p_base) =>
if (used_assets >= asset_number)
f_array_set(a_array, p_base)
else
na
Main Logic
The main logic initializes arrays to store scores for each asset. Each array corresponds to one asset's performance score.
Setting Trend Values: The code calls f_arrayset for each asset, populating the respective arrays with calculated scores based on the asset prices.
Combining Arrays: A combined_array is created to hold all the scores from individual asset arrays. This array facilitates further analysis, allowing for an overview of the performance scores of all assets at once.
// create a combined array (work-around since pinescript doesn't support having array of arrays)
var combined_array = array.new_int(40 * 40, 0)
if barstate.islast
for i = 0 to 39
array.set(combined_array, i, array.get(a1_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 1), array.get(a2_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 2), array.get(a3_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 3), array.get(a4_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 4), array.get(a5_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 5), array.get(a6_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 6), array.get(a7_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 7), array.get(a8_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 8), array.get(a9_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 9), array.get(a10_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 10), array.get(a11_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 11), array.get(a12_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 12), array.get(a13_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 13), array.get(a14_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 14), array.get(a15_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 15), array.get(a16_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 16), array.get(a17_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 17), array.get(a18_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 18), array.get(a19_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 19), array.get(a20_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 20), array.get(a21_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 21), array.get(a22_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 22), array.get(a23_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 23), array.get(a24_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 24), array.get(a25_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 25), array.get(a26_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 26), array.get(a27_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 27), array.get(a28_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 28), array.get(a29_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 29), array.get(a30_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 30), array.get(a31_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 31), array.get(a32_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 32), array.get(a33_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 33), array.get(a34_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 34), array.get(a35_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 35), array.get(a36_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 36), array.get(a37_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 37), array.get(a38_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 38), array.get(a39_array, i))
array.set(combined_array, i + (40 * 39), array.get(a40_array, i))
Calculating Sums: A separate array_sums is created to store the total score for each asset by summing the values of their respective score arrays. This allows for easy comparison of overall performance.
Ranking Assets: The final part of the code ranks the assets based on their total scores stored in array_sums. It assigns a rank to each asset, where the asset with the highest score receives the highest rank.
// create array for asset RANK based on array.sum
var ranks = array.new_int(used_assets, 0)
// for loop that calculates the rank of each asset
if barstate.islast
for i = 0 to (used_assets - 1)
int rank = 1
for x = 0 to (used_assets - 1)
if i != x
if array.get(array_sums, i) < array.get(array_sums, x)
rank := rank + 1
array.set(ranks, i, rank)
Dynamic Table Creation
Initialization: The table is initialized with a base structure that includes headers for asset names, scores, and ranks. The headers are set to remain constant, ensuring clarity for users as they interpret the displayed data.
Data Population: As scores are calculated for each asset, the corresponding values are dynamically inserted into the table. This is achieved through a loop that iterates over the scores and ranks stored in the combined_array and array_sums, respectively.
Automatic Extending Mechanism
Variable Asset Count: The code checks the number of assets defined by the user. Instead of hardcoding the number of rows in the table, it uses a variable to determine the extent of the data that needs to be displayed. This allows the table to expand or contract based on the number of assets being analyzed.
Dynamic Row Generation: Within the loop that populates the table, the code appends new rows for each asset based on the current asset count. The structure of each row includes the asset name, its score, and its rank, ensuring that the table remains consistent regardless of how many assets are involved.
// Automatically extending table based on the number of used assets
var table table = table.new(position.bottom_center, 50, 50, color.new(color.black, 100), color.white, 3, color.white, 1)
if barstate.islast
if not hide_head
table.cell(table, 0, 0, "Universal Ratio Trend Matrix", text_color = color.white, bgcolor = #010c3b, text_size = fontSize)
table.merge_cells(table, 0, 0, used_assets + 3, 0)
if not hide_inps
table.cell(table, 0, 1,
text = "Inputs: You are using " + str.tostring(trend_indicator) + ", which takes: " + str.tostring(f_get_input(trend_indicator)),
text_color = color.white, text_size = fontSize), table.merge_cells(table, 0, 1, used_assets + 3, 1)
table.cell(table, 0, 2, "Assets", text_color = color.white, text_size = fontSize, bgcolor = #010c3b)
for x = 0 to (used_assets - 1)
table.cell(table, x + 1, 2, text = str.tostring(array.get(assets, x)), text_color = color.white, bgcolor = #010c3b, text_size = fontSize)
table.cell(table, 0, x + 3, text = str.tostring(array.get(assets, x)), text_color = color.white, bgcolor = f_asset_col(array.get(ranks, x)), text_size = fontSize)
for r = 0 to (used_assets - 1)
for c = 0 to (used_assets - 1)
table.cell(table, c + 1, r + 3, text = str.tostring(array.get(combined_array, c + (r * 40))),
text_color = hl_type == "Text" ? f_get_col(array.get(combined_array, c + (r * 40))) : color.white, text_size = fontSize,
bgcolor = hl_type == "Background" ? f_get_col(array.get(combined_array, c + (r * 40))) : na)
for x = 0 to (used_assets - 1)
table.cell(table, x + 1, x + 3, "", bgcolor = #010c3b)
table.cell(table, used_assets + 1, 2, "", bgcolor = #010c3b)
for x = 0 to (used_assets - 1)
table.cell(table, used_assets + 1, x + 3, "==>", text_color = color.white)
table.cell(table, used_assets + 2, 2, "SUM", text_color = color.white, text_size = fontSize, bgcolor = #010c3b)
table.cell(table, used_assets + 3, 2, "RANK", text_color = color.white, text_size = fontSize, bgcolor = #010c3b)
for x = 0 to (used_assets - 1)
table.cell(table, used_assets + 2, x + 3,
text = str.tostring(array.get(array_sums, x)),
text_color = color.white, text_size = fontSize,
bgcolor = f_highlight_sum(array.get(array_sums, x), array.get(ranks, x)))
table.cell(table, used_assets + 3, x + 3,
text = str.tostring(array.get(ranks, x)),
text_color = color.white, text_size = fontSize,
bgcolor = f_highlight_rank(array.get(ranks, x)))
Profit & Risk CalculatorThe "Profit & Risk Calculator" script in Pine Script (TradingView) is designed to help users calculate potential profit and risk when trading, and to provide alerts when specific price levels are reached (such as entry price, take profit, or stop loss). It includes several components as described below:
1. Input Fields:
The user can manually input various prices: entry price, stop loss price, and take profit price, with steps of 0.25.
There is also an option to input a custom value (e.g., for personal lot sizing) and a total investment amount.
2. Dynamic Lines:
The script draws dynamic horizontal lines for the input prices: entry line (white), stop loss line (red), and take profit line (green).
These lines are automatically updated based on the entered price levels.
3. Labels for the Lines:
Labels are added to the lines to visually indicate the entry, stop loss, and take profit levels on the chart.
4. Long and Short Position Calculations:
The script calculates potential profit and loss for both long (profit if the price goes up) and short (profit if the price goes down) positions.
It also calculates the distance between entry and take profit, and distance between entry and stop loss, along with the risk/reward ratio (RR).
5. Alerts:
The script generates alerts when one of the following conditions is met:
Entry Condition: The price touches or exceeds the entry price (high >= entryPrice).
Stop Loss Condition: The price touches or drops below the stop loss price (low <= stopLossPrice).
Take Profit Condition: The price touches or exceeds the take profit price (high >= takeProfitPrice).
6. Lot Calculations:
The script calculates both micro and mini lot sizes based on a preset table and the custom value.
The results are displayed in a table on the chart.
7. Profit/Risk Table:
The script shows two tables:
One table calculates the profit, loss, and risk/reward ratio based on the input entry price.
A second table shows the same calculations based on the current price.
8. Chart Display:
The script places tables and other visual data on the chart, such as preset values, profit and loss calculations, and the distance from take profit and stop loss to the entry price.
English Explanation of Each Part of the Script
1. Input Fields
The script starts with several input fields where the user can specify the entry price, stop loss price, take profit price, custom value, and investment amount. These values help define the parameters for risk/reward calculations.
2. Dynamic Horizontal Lines
Three horizontal lines are drawn on the chart, representing the entry price, stop loss price, and take profit price. These lines update dynamically based on user input.
3. Dynamic Line Updates
As the user adjusts their inputs, the position of the lines is updated in real-time to match the new price levels. This keeps the chart visually accurate.
4. Labels for Lines
Labels are placed on the chart next to each price line, allowing the user to clearly see which line represents which price level.
5. Long and Short Position Calculations
The script calculates the potential profit or loss for both long (prices go up) and short (prices go down) positions, providing users with an idea of their potential gains or losses.
6. **6. Risk/Reward Ratio Calculation
This calculates the Risk/Reward Ratio (RR) by dividing the distance between the take profit and entry price by the distance between the entry and stop loss price. This gives the trader an idea of how much risk they're taking relative to the potential reward.
7. Alert Conditions
The alert conditions are defined based on the price hitting the set levels:
Entry Condition: If the price goes up and touches the entry level, the alert is triggered.
Stop Loss Condition: If the price drops and hits the stop loss level, the alert is triggered.
Take Profit Condition: If the price rises and reaches the take profit level, the alert is triggered.
8. Alert Configuration
Each condition is linked to an alert that sends a message when the specific price level is touched. The alerts notify the user when the entry, stop loss, or take profit levels are hit.
9. Lot Calculations
The script includes a function that calculates micro and mini lot sizes based on a preset table and a custom value input by the user. This is useful for adjusting lot sizes to the desired amount and determining position sizes for trades.
10. Entry Price-Based Profit & Loss Table
A table is generated on the chart that displays detailed information about the profit, loss, and risk/reward ratio based on the entry price. It helps traders see the potential outcomes for different lot sizes.
11. Current Price-Based Profit & Loss Table
This second table provides similar information as the first but calculates profit, loss, and risk/reward based on the current price. This allows the trader to see how their position performs as the market price changes in real time.
The Adaptive Pairwise Momentum System [QuantraSystems]The Adaptive Pairwise Momentum System
QuantraSystems guarantees that the information created and published within this document and on the Tradingview platform is fully compliant with applicable regulations, does not constitute investment advice, and is not exclusively intended for qualified investors.
Important Note!
The system equity curve presented here has been generated as part of the process of testing and verifying the methodology behind this script.
Crucially, it was developed after the system was conceptualized, designed, and created, which helps to mitigate the risk of overfitting to historical data. In other words, the system was built for robustness, not for simply optimizing past performance.
This ensures that the system is less likely to degrade in performance over time, compared to hyper-optimized systems that are tailored to past data. No tweaks or optimizations were made to this system post-backtest.
Even More Important Note!!
The nature of markets is that they change quickly and unpredictably. Past performance does not guarantee future results - this is a fundamental rule in trading and investing.
While this system is designed with broad, flexible conditions to adapt quickly to a range of market environments, it is essential to understand that no assumptions should be made about future returns based on historical data. Markets are inherently uncertain, and this system - like all trading systems - cannot predict future outcomes.
Introduction
The Adaptive Pairwise Momentum System is not just an indicator but a comprehensive asset rotation and trend-following system. In short, it aims to find the highest performing asset from the provided range.
The system dynamically optimizes capital allocation across up to four high-performing assets, ensuring that the portfolio adapts swiftly to changing market conditions. The system logic consists of sophisticated quantitative methods, rapid momentum analysis, and robust trend filtering. The overarching goal is to ensure that the portfolio is always invested in the highest-performing asset based on dynamic market conditions, while at the same time managing risk through broader market filters and internal mechanisms like volatility and beta analysis.
Legend
System Equity Curve:
The equity curve displayed in the chart is dynamically colored based on the asset allocation at any given time. This color-coded approach allows traders to immediately identify transitions between assets and the corresponding impact on portfolio performance.
Highlighting of Current Highest Performer:
The current bar in the chart is highlighted based on the confirmed highest performing asset. This is designed to give traders advanced notice of potential shifts in allocation even before a formal position change occurs. The highlighting enables traders to prepare in real time, making it easier to manage positions without lag, particularly in fast-moving markets.
Highlighted Symbols in the Asset Table:
In the table displayed on the right hand side of the screen, the current top-performing symbol is highlighted. This clear signal at a glance provides immediate insight into which asset is currently being favored by the system. This feature enhances clarity and helps traders make informed decisions quickly, without needing to analyze the underlying data manually.
Performance Overview in Tables:
The left table provides insight into both daily and overall system performance from inception, offering traders a detailed view of short-term fluctuations and long-term growth. The right-hand table breaks down essential metrics such as Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, Omega ratio, and maximum drawdown for each asset, as well as for the overall system and HODL strategy.
Asset-Specific Signals:
The signals column in the table indicates whether an asset is currently held or being considered for holding based on the system's dynamic rankings. This is a critical visual aid for asset reallocation decisions, signaling when it may be appropriate to either maintain or change the asset of the portfolio.
Core Features and Methodologies
Flexibility in Asset Selection
One of the major advantages of this system is its flexibility. Users can easily modify the number and type of assets included for comparison. You can quickly input different assets and backtest their performance, allowing you to verify how well this system might fit different tokens or market conditions. This flexibility empowers users to adapt the system to a wide range of market environments and tailor it to their unique preferences.
Whole System Risk Mitigation - Macro Trend Filter
One of the features of this script is its integration of a Macro-level Trend Filter for the entire portfolio. The purpose of this filter is to ensure no capital is allocated to any token in the rotation system unless Bitcoin itself is in a positive trend. The logic here is that Bitcoin, as the cryptocurrency market leader, often sets the tone for the entire cryptocurrency market. By using Bitcoins trend direction as a barometer for overall market conditions, we create a system where capital is not allocated during unfavorable or bearish market conditions - significantly reducing exposure to downside risk.
Users have the ability to toggle this filter on and off in the input menu, with five customizable options for the trend filter, including the option to use no filter. These options are:
Nova QSM - a trend aggregate combining the Rolling VWAP, Wave Pendulum Trend, KRO Overlay, and the Pulse Profiler provides the market trend signal confirmation.
Kilonova QSM - a versatile aggregate combining the Rolling VWAP, KRO Overlay, the KRO Base, RSI Volatility Bands, NNTRSI, Regression Smoothed RSI and the RoC Suite.
Quasar QSM - an enhanced version of the original RSI Pulsar. The Quasar QSM refines the trend following approach by utilizing an aggregated methodology.
Pairwise Momentum and Strength Ranking
The backbone of this system is its ability to identify the strongest-performing asset in the selected pool, ensuring that the portfolio is always exposed to the asset showing the highest relative momentum. The system continually ranks these assets against each other and determines the highest performer by measure of past and coincident outperformance. This process occurs rapidly, allowing for swift responses to shifts in market momentum, which ensures capital is always working in the most efficient manner. The speed and precision of this reallocation strategy make the script particularly well-suited for active, momentum-driven portfolios.
Beta-Adjusted Asset Selection as a Tiebreaker
In the circumstance where two (or more) assets exhibit the same relative momentum score, the system introduces another layer of analysis. In the event of a strength ‘tie’ the system will preference maintaining the current position - that is, if the previously strongest asset is now tied, the system will still allocate to the same asset. If this is not the case, the asset with the higher beta is selected. Beta is a measure of an asset’s volatility relative to Bitcoin (BTC).
This ensures that in bullish conditions, the system favors assets with a higher potential for outsized gains due to their inherent volatility. Beta is calculated based on the Average Daily Return of each asset compared to BTC. By doing this, the system ensures that it is dynamically adjusting to risk and reward, allocating to assets with higher risk in favorable conditions and lower risk in less favorable conditions.
Dynamic Asset Reallocation - Opposed to Multi-Asset Fixed Intervals
One of the standout features of this system is its ability to dynamically reallocate capital. Unlike traditional portfolio allocation strategies that may rebalance between a basket of assets monthly or quarterly, this system recalculates and reallocates capital on the next bar close (if required). As soon as a new asset exhibits superior performance relative to others, the system immediately adjusts, closing the previous position and reallocating funds to the top-ranked asset.
This approach is particularly powerful in volatile markets like cryptocurrencies, where trends can shift quickly. By reallocating swiftly, the system maximizes exposure to high-performing assets while minimizing time spent in underperforming ones. Moreover, this process is entirely automated, freeing the trader from manually tracking and measuring individual token strength.
Our research has demonstrated that, from a risk-adjusted return perspective, concentration into the top-performing asset consistently outperforms broad diversification across longer time horizons. By focusing capital on the highest-performing asset, the system captures outsized returns that are not achievable through traditional diversification. However, a more risk-averse investor, or one seeking to reduce drawdowns, may prefer to move the portfolio further left along the theoretical Capital Allocation Line by incorporating a blend of cash, treasury bonds, or other yield-generating assets or even include market neutral strategies alongside the rotation system. This hybrid approach would effectively lower the overall volatility of the portfolio while still maintaining exposure to the system’s outsized returns. In theory, such an investor can reduce risk without sacrificing too much potential upside, creating a more balanced risk-return profile.
Position Changes and Fees/Slippage
Another critical and often overlooked element of this system is its ability to account for fees and slippage. Given the increased speed and frequency of allocation logic compared to the buy-and-hold strategy, it is of vital importance that the system recognises that switching between assets may incur slippage, especially in highly volatile markets. To account for this, the system integrates realistic slippage and fee estimates directly into the equity curve, simulating expected execution costs under typical market conditions and gives users a more realistic view of expected performance.
Number of Position Changes
Understanding the number of position changes in a strategy is critical to assessing its feasibility in real world trading. Frequent position changes can lead to increased costs due to slippage and fees. Monitoring the number of position changes provides insight into the system’s behavior - helping to evaluate how active the strategy is and whether it aligns with the trader's desired time input for position management.
Equity Curve and Performance Calculations
To provide a benchmark, the script also generates a Buy-and-Hold (or "HODL") equity curve that represents an equal split across the four selected assets. This allows users to easily compare the performance of the dynamic rotation system with that of a more traditional investment strategy.
The script tracks key performance metrics for both the dynamic portfolio and the HODL strategy, including:
Sharpe Ratio
The Sharpe Ratio is a key metric that evaluates a portfolio’s risk-adjusted return by comparing its ‘excess’ return to its volatility. Traditionally, the Sharpe Ratio measures returns relative to a risk-free rate. However, in our system’s calculation, we omit the risk-free rate and instead measure returns above a benchmark of 0%. This adjustment provides a more universal comparison, especially in the context of highly volatile assets like cryptocurrencies, where a traditional risk-free benchmark, such as the usual 3-month T-bills, is often irrelevant or too distant from the realities of the crypto market.
By using 0% as the baseline, we focus purely on the strategy's ability to generate raw returns in the face of market risk, which makes it easier to compare performance across different strategies or asset classes. In an environment like cryptocurrency, where volatility can be extreme, the importance of relative return against a highly volatile backdrop outweighs comparisons to a risk-free rate that bears little resemblance to the risk profile of digital assets.
Sortino Ratio
The Sortino Ratio improves upon the Sharpe Ratio by specifically targeting downside risk and leaves the upside potential untouched. In contrast to the Sharpe Ratio (which penalizes both upside and downside volatility), the Sortino Ratio focuses only on negative return deviations. This makes it a more suitable metric for evaluating strategies like the Adaptive Pairwise Momentum Strategy - that aim to minimize drawdowns without restricting upside capture. By measuring returns relative to a 0% baseline, the Sortino ratio provides a clearer assessment of how well the system generates gains while avoiding substantial losses in highly volatile markets like crypto.
Omega Ratio
The Omega Ratio is calculated as the ratio of gains to losses across all return thresholds, providing a more complete view of how the system balances upside and downside risk even compared to the Sortino Ratio. While it achieves a similar outcome to the Sortino Ratio by emphasizing the system's ability to capture gains while limiting losses, it is technically a mathematically superior method. However, we include both the Omega and Sortino ratios in our metric table, as the Sortino Ratio remains more widely recognized and commonly understood by traders and investors of all levels.
Case Study
Notes
For the sake of brevity, the Important Notes section found in the header of this text will not be rewritten. Instead, it will be highlighted that now is the perfect time to reread these notes. Reading this case study in the context of what has been mentioned above is of key importance.
As a second note, it is worth mentioning that certain market periods are referred to as either “Bull” or “Bear” markets - terms I personally find to be vague and undefinable - and therefore unfavorable. They will be used nevertheless, due to their familiarity and ease of understanding in this context. Substitute phrases could be “Macro Uptrend” or “Macro Downtrend.”
Overview
This case study provides an in-depth performance analysis of the Adaptive Pairwise Momentum System , a long-only system that dynamically allocates to outperforming assets and moves into cash during unfavorable conditions.
This backtest includes realistic assumptions for slippage and fees, applying a 0.5% cost for every position change, which includes both asset reallocation and moving to a cash position. Additionally, the system was tested using the top four cryptocurrencies by market capitalization as of the test start date of 01/01/2022 in order to minimize selection bias.
The top tokens on this date (excluding Stablecoins) were:
Bitcoin
Ethereum
Solana
BNB
This decision was made in order to avoid cherry picking assets that might have exhibited exceptional historical performance - minimizing skew in the back test. Furthermore, although this backtest focuses on these specific assets, the system is built to be flexible and adaptable, capable of being applied to a wide range of assets beyond those initially tested.
Any potential lookahead bias or repainting in the calculations has been addressed by implementing the lookback modifier for all repainting sensitive data, including asset ratios, asset scoring, and beta values. This ensures that no future information is inadvertently used in the asset allocation process.
Additionally, a fixed lookback period of one bar is used for the trend filter during allocations - meaning that the trend filter from the prior bar must be positive for an allocation to occur on the current bar. It is also important to note that all the data displayed by the indicator is based on the last confirmed (closed) bar, ensuring that the entire system is repaint-proof.
The study spans the 2022 cryptocurrency bear market through the subsequent bull market of 2023 and 2024. The stress test highlights how the system reacted to one of the most challenging market downturns in crypto history - which includes events such as:
Luna and TerraUSD crash
Three Arrows Capital liquidation
Celsius bankruptcy
Voyager Digital bankruptcy
FTX collapse
Silicon Valley + Signature + Silvergate banking collapses
Subsequent USDC deppegging
And arguably more important, 2022 was characterized by a tightening of monetary policy after the unprecedented monetary easing in response to the Covid pandemic of 2020/2021. This shift undeniably puts downward pressure on asset prices, most probably to the extent that this had a causal role to many of the above events.
By incorporating these real-world challenges, the backtest provides a more accurate and robust performance evaluation that avoids overfitting or excessive optimization for one specific market condition.
The Bear Market of 2022: Stress Test and System Resilience
During the 2022 bear market, where the overall crypto market experienced deep and consistent corrections, the Adaptive Pairwise Momentum System demonstrated its ability to mitigate downside risk effectively.
Dynamic Allocation and Cash Exposure:
The system rotated in and out of cash, as indicated by the gray period on the system equity curve. This allocation to cash during downtrending periods, specifically in late 2022, acted as the systems ‘risk-off’ exposure - the purest form of such an exposure. This prevented the system from experiencing the magnitude of drawdown suffered by the ‘Buy-and-Hold (HODL) investors.
In contrast, a passive HODL strategy would have suffered a staggering 75.32% drawdown, as it remained fully allocated to chosen assets during the market's decline. The active Pairwise Momentum system’s smaller drawdown of 54.35% demonstrates its more effective capital preservation mechanisms.
The Bull Market of 2023 and 2024: Capturing Market Upside
Following the crypto bear market, the system effectively capitalized on the recovery and subsequent bull market of 2023 and 2024.
Maximizing Market Gains:
As trends began turning bullish in early 2023, the system caught the momentum and promptly allocated capital to only the quantified highest performing asset of the time - resulting in a parabolic rise in the system's equity curve. Notably, the curve transitions from gray to purple during this period, indicating that Solana (SOL) was the top-performing asset selected by the system.
This allocation to Solana is particularly striking because, at the time, it was an asset many in the market shunned due to its association with the FTX collapse just months prior. However, this highlights a key advantage of quantitative systems like the one presented here: decisions are driven purely from objective data - free from emotional or subjective biases. Unlike human traders, who are inclined (whether consciously or subconsciously) to avoid assets that are ‘out of favor,’ this system focuses purely on price performance, often uncovering opportunities that are overlooked by discretionary based investors. This ability to make data-driven decisions ensures that the strategy is always positioned to capture the best risk-adjusted returns, even in scenarios where judgment might fail.
Minimizing Volatility and Drawdown in Uptrends
While the system captured substantial returns during the bull market it also did so with lower volatility compared to HODL. The sharpe ratio of 4.05 (versus HODL’s 3.31) reflects the system's superior risk-adjusted performance. The allocation shifts, combined with tactical periods of cash holding during minor corrections, ensured a smoother equity curve growth compared to the buy-and-hold approach.
Final Summary
The percentage returns are mentioned last for a reason - it is important to emphasize that risk-adjusted performance is paramount. In this backtest, the Pairwise Momentum system consistently outperforms due to its ability to dynamically manage risk (as seen in the superior Sharpe, Sortino and Omega ratios). With a smaller drawdown of 54.35% compared to HODL’s 75.32%, the system demonstrates its resilience during market downturns, while also capturing the highest beta on the upside during bullish phases.
The system delivered 266.26% return since the backtest start date of January 1st 2022, compared to HODL’s 10.24%, resulting in a performance delta of 256.02%
While this backtest goes some of the way to verifying the system’s feasibility, it’s important to note that past performance is not indicative of future results - especially in volatile and evolving markets like cryptocurrencies. Market behavior can shift, and in particular, if the market experiences prolonged sideways action, trend following systems such as the Adaptive Pairwise Momentum Strategy WILL face significant challenges.
ATR, Chop, Profit Target and Stop Loss TableThe ATR Table indicator is a versatile tool that helps traders visually and quantitatively manage risk, identify market conditions, and set profit targets and stop-loss levels. It is designed to enhance decision-making by incorporating key volatility and chop (market consolidation) signals into a comprehensive table format.
Key Features:
Average True Range (ATR) Calculation : The indicator computes the ATR over a user-defined period (default 14). ATR helps to measure market volatility, providing insights into how much an asset's price typically moves within a given period.
Stop Loss and Profit Target Calculation : You can configure stop-loss and profit target levels using multipliers based on the ATR. This allows dynamic risk management that adjusts to market volatility:
Stop Loss : Defined as a multiple of the ATR to help control losses.
Profit Target : Also based on a multiple of the ATR to lock in gains. The user can specify whether they are trading long or short, and the indicator adjusts the levels accordingly.
Customizable Plot Lines : The indicator can display the Stop Loss and Profit Target levels directly on the chart. Users can toggle these lines on or off and customize their colors.
Chop Signa l: The indicator highlights potential consolidation periods (chop) using a wick-based analysis. It calculates the highest upper or lower wick values and compares them to the ATR to detect periods of indecision or consolidation.
Table Display : When these wick values exceed the ATR by a user-defined multiplier, the corresponding table rows are highlighted.
Background Alerts : Optionally, users can activate background color changes on the chart to visually alert them when chop conditions are detected.
Customizable Table Layout : A table displaying the key values (ATR, Stop Loss, Profit Target, Upper/Lower Wickiness) is placed on the chart. You can choose the table's position, adjust its color scheme, and decide which rows to display.
Chop Background Customization : For users who prefer more visual cues, the indicator allows you to enable or disable background shading when chop conditions are met. You can also choose the color of this background for better customization.
(Early Test) Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion# Enhancing Trading Strategies with the Weekly Seasonality Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator
Amidst this pursuit to chase price, a common pitfall emerges: an overemphasis on price movements without adequate attention to risk management, probabilistic analysis, and strategic position sizing. To address these challenges, I developed the **Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator**. It is designed to refocus traders on essential aspects of trading, such as risk management and probabilistic returns, thereby catering to both short-term swing traders and long-term investors aiming for tax-efficient positions.
## The Motivation Behind the Indicator
### Overemphasis on Price: A Common Trading Pitfall
Many traders concentrate heavily on price charts and technical indicators, often neglecting the underlying principles of risk management and probabilistic analysis. This overemphasis on price can lead to:
- **Overtrading:** Making frequent trades based solely on price movements without considering the associated risks.
- **Poor Risk Management:** Failing to set appropriate stop-loss levels or position sizes, increasing the potential for significant losses.
- **Emotional Trading:** Letting emotions drive trading decisions rather than objective analysis, which can result in impulsive and irrational trades.
### The Need for Balanced Focus
To achieve sustained trading success, it is crucial to balance price analysis with robust risk management and probabilistic strategies. Key areas of focus include:
1. **Risk Management:** Implementing strategies to protect capital, such as setting stop-loss orders and determining appropriate position sizes based on risk tolerance.
2. **Probabilistic Analysis:** Assessing the likelihood of various market outcomes to make informed trading decisions.
3. **Swing Trading Percent Returns:** Capitalizing on short- to medium-term price movements by buying assets below their average return and selling them above.
## Introducing the Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator
The **Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator** is designed to integrate these essential elements into a comprehensive tool that aids traders in making informed, risk-aware decisions. Below, we explore the key components and functionalities of this indicator.
### Key Components of the Indicator
1. **Average Return (%)**
- **Definition:** The mean percentage return for each week across multiple years.
- **Purpose:** Serves as a benchmark to identify weeks with above or below-average performance, guiding buy and sell decisions.
2. **Positive Percentage (%)**
- **Definition:** The proportion of weeks that yielded positive returns.
- **Purpose:** Indicates the consistency of positive returns, helping traders gauge the reliability of certain weeks for trading.
3. **Volatility (%)**
- **Definition:** The standard deviation of weekly returns.
- **Purpose:** Measures the variability of returns, providing insights into the risk associated with trading during specific weeks.
4. **Kelly Ratio**
- **Definition:** A mathematical formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets to maximize the logarithmic growth of capital.
- **Purpose:** Balances potential returns against risks, guiding traders on the appropriate position size to take.
5. **Adjusted Kelly Fraction**
- **Definition:** The Kelly Ratio adjusted based on user-defined risk tolerance and external factors like Federal Reserve (Fed) stance.
- **Purpose:** Personalizes the Kelly Criterion to align with individual risk preferences and market conditions, enhancing risk management.
6. **Position Size ($)**
- **Definition:** The calculated amount to invest based on the Adjusted Kelly Fraction.
- **Purpose:** Ensures that position sizes are aligned with risk management strategies, preventing overexposure to any single trade.
7. **Max Drawdown (%)**
- **Definition:** The maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained.
- **Purpose:** Assesses the worst-case scenario for losses, crucial for understanding potential capital erosion.
### Functionality and Benefits
- **Weekly Data Aggregation:** Aggregates weekly returns across multiple years to provide a robust statistical foundation for decision-making.
- **Quarterly Filtering:** Allows users to filter weeks based on quarters, enabling seasonality analysis and tailored strategies aligned with specific timeframes.
- **Dynamic Risk Adjustment:** Incorporates the Dynamic Kelly Criterion to adjust position sizes in real-time based on changing risk profiles and market conditions.
- **User-Friendly Visualization:** Presents all essential metrics in an organized Summary Table, facilitating quick and informed decision-making.
## The Origin of the Kelly Criterion and Addressing Its Limitations
### Understanding the Kelly Criterion
The Kelly Criterion, developed by John L. Kelly Jr. in 1956, is a formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets to maximize the long-term growth of capital. The formula considers both the probability of winning and the payout ratio, balancing potential returns against the risk of loss.
**Kelly Formula:**
\
Where:
- \( b \) = the net odds received on the wager ("b to 1")
- \( p \) = probability of winning
- \( q \) = probability of losing ( \( q = 1 - p \) )
### The Risk of Ruin
While the Kelly Criterion is effective in optimizing growth, it carries inherent risks:
- **Overbetting:** If the input probabilities or payout ratios are misestimated, the Kelly Criterion can suggest overly aggressive position sizes, leading to significant losses.
- **Assumption of Constant Probabilities:** The criterion assumes that probabilities remain constant, which is rarely the case in dynamic markets.
- **Ignoring External Factors:** Traditional Kelly implementations do not account for external factors such as Federal Reserve rates, margin requirements, or market volatility, which can impact risk and returns.
### Addressing Traditional Limitations
Recognizing these limitations, the **Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator** introduces enhancements to the traditional Kelly approach:
- **Incorporation of Fed Stance:** Adjusts the Kelly Fraction based on the current stance of the Federal Reserve (neutral, dovish, or hawkish), reflecting broader economic conditions that influence market behavior.
- **Margin and Leverage Considerations:** Accounts for margin rates and leverage, ensuring that position sizes remain within manageable risk parameters.
- **Dynamic Adjustments:** Continuously updates position sizes based on real-time risk assessments and probabilistic analyses, mitigating the risk of ruin associated with static Kelly implementations.
## How the Indicator Aids Traders
### For Short-Term Swing Traders
Short-term swing traders thrive on capitalizing over weekly price movements. The indicator aids them by:
- **Identifying Favorable Weeks:** Highlights weeks with above-average returns and favorable volatility, guiding entry and exit points.
- **Optimal Position Sizing:** Utilizes the Adjusted Kelly Fraction to determine the optimal amount to invest, balancing potential returns with risk exposure.
- **Probabilistic Insights:** Provides metrics like Positive Percentage (%) and Kelly Ratio to assess the likelihood of favorable outcomes, enhancing decision-making.
### For Long-Term Tax-Free Investors
This is effectively a drop-in replacement for DCA which uses fixed position size that doesn't change based on market conditions, as a result, it's like catching multiple falling knifes by the blade and smiling with blood on your hand... I don't know about you, but I'd rather juggle by the hilt and look like an actual professional...
Long-term investors, especially those seeking tax-free positions (e.g., through retirement accounts), benefit from:
- **Consistent Risk Management:** Ensures that position sizes are aligned with long-term capital preservation strategies.
- **Seasonality Analysis:** Allows for strategic positioning based on historical performance trends across different weeks and quarters.
- **Dynamic Adjustments:** Adapts to changing market conditions, maintaining optimal risk profiles over extended investment horizons.
### Developers
Please double check the logic and functionality because I think there are a few issue and I need to crowd source solutions and be responsible about the code I publish. If you have corrections, please DM me or leave a respectful comment.
I want to publish this by the end of the year and include other things like highlighting triple witching weeks, adding columns for volume % stats, VaR and CVaR, alpha, beta (to see the seasonal alpha and beta based off a benchmark ticker and risk free rate ticker and other little goodies.
Leonid's Bitcoin Sharpe RatioThe Sharpe ratio is an old formula used to value the risk-adjusted return of an asset. It was developed by Nobel Laureate William F. Sharpe. In this case, I have applied it to Bitcoin with an adjustable look-back date.
The Sharpe Ratio shows you the average return earned after subtracting out the risk-free rate per unit of volatility (I've defaulted this to 0.02 ).
Volatility is a measure of the price fluctuations of an asset or portfolio. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows you to understand what the extra returns are for taking the risk.
If the indicator is flashing red, Bitcoin is temporarily overbought (expensive).
If the indicator is flashing green, Bitcoin is temporarily oversold (cheap).
The goal of this indicator is to signal out local tops & bottoms. It can be adjusted as far as the lookback time but I have found 25-26 days to be ideal.
Commitment of Trader %R StrategyThis Pine Script strategy utilizes the Commitment of Traders (COT) data to inform trading decisions based on the Williams %R indicator. The script operates in TradingView and includes various functionalities that allow users to customize their trading parameters.
Here’s a breakdown of its key components:
COT Data Import:
The script imports the COT library from TradingView to access historical COT data related to different trader groups (commercial hedgers, large traders, and small traders).
User Inputs:
COT data selection mode (e.g., Auto, Root, Base currency).
Whether to include futures, options, or both.
The trader group to analyze.
The lookback period for calculating the Williams %R.
Upper and lower thresholds for triggering trades.
An option to enable or disable a Simple Moving Average (SMA) filter.
Williams %R Calculation: The script calculates the Williams %R value, which is a momentum indicator that measures overbought or oversold levels based on the highest and lowest prices over a specified period.
SMA Filter: An optional SMA filter allows users to limit trades to conditions where the price is above or below the SMA, depending on the configuration.
Trade Logic: The strategy enters long positions when the Williams %R value exceeds the upper threshold and exits when the value falls below it. Conversely, it enters short positions when the Williams %R value is below the lower threshold and exits when the value rises above it.
Visual Elements: The script visually indicates the Williams %R values and thresholds on the chart, with the option to plot the SMA if enabled.
Commitment of Traders (COT) Data
The COT report is a weekly publication by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that provides a breakdown of open interest positions held by different types of traders in the U.S. futures markets. It is widely used by traders and analysts to gauge market sentiment and potential price movements.
Data Collection: The COT data is collected from futures commission merchants and is published every Friday, reflecting positions as of the previous Tuesday. The report categorizes traders into three main groups:
Commercial Traders: These are typically hedgers (like producers and processors) who use futures to mitigate risk.
Non-Commercial Traders: Often referred to as speculators, these traders do not have a commercial interest in the underlying commodity but seek to profit from price changes.
Non-reportable Positions: Small traders who do not meet the reporting threshold set by the CFTC.
Interpretation:
Market Sentiment: By analyzing the positions of different trader groups, market participants can gauge sentiment. For instance, if commercial traders are heavily short, it may suggest they expect prices to decline.
Extreme Positions: Some traders look for extreme positions among non-commercial traders as potential reversal signals. For example, if speculators are overwhelmingly long, it might indicate an overbought condition.
Statistical Insights: COT data is often used in conjunction with technical analysis to inform trading decisions. Studies have shown that analyzing COT data can provide valuable insights into future price movements (Lund, 2018; Hurst et al., 2017).
Scientific References
Lund, J. (2018). Understanding the COT Report: An Analysis of Speculative Trading Strategies.
Journal of Derivatives and Hedge Funds, 24(1), 41-52. DOI:10.1057/s41260-018-00107-3
Hurst, B., O'Neill, R., & Roulston, M. (2017). The Impact of COT Reports on Futures Market Prices: An Empirical Analysis. Journal of Futures Markets, 37(8), 763-785.
DOI:10.1002/fut.21849
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). (2024). Commitment of Traders. Retrieved from CFTC Official Website.
Fx_Shepherd Lot Size Calculator [ALLDYN]This "Fx_Shepherd Lot Size Calculator" script is a basic yet essential tool designed for traders to calculate the appropriate lot size based on account balance, risk percentage, and stop-loss pips. It promotes disciplined risk management by ensuring that the user only risks a defined percentage of their account on each trade. The script also features a toggleable table that displays the account size, risk percentage, and calculated lot size, offering clear, real-time visualization for the user. This helps traders maintain consistency and avoid over-leveraging.
This "Fx_Shepherd Lot Size Calculator" script stands out as a unique utility for traders in several ways:
### 1. **Real-Time Lot Size Calculation**:
- The script provides an automatic, real-time calculation of the optimal lot size based on the account balance, risk percentage, and stop loss (SL) in pips. This offers traders immediate guidance on how much risk they are exposing their account to in each trade, streamlining risk management decisions.
### 2. **Dynamic Table Display**:
- The toggle-able table feature allows users to show or hide the lot size table on the chart. This makes the script non-intrusive for traders who may not want constant table overlays, providing more flexibility for chart space management.
### 3. **Customizable Inputs**:
- Inputs such as **balance**, **risk percentage**, and **stop loss** are easily configurable, allowing users to adjust the calculations to suit different trading strategies, account sizes, and risk tolerances.
- The `truncate()` function ensures the lot size is presented in a simple, rounded format, which is crucial for precise order placement and reduces the chance of errors.
### 4. **Responsive and Clean UI**:
- The table is color-coded for easy reading, with a sleek design that places key information — account size, risk percentage, and calculated lot size — in a clear, organized structure. The black background with white text for the data points improves readability, while the border and table cell colors (green and black) provide a professional look.
### 5. **Risk Management Focus**:
- The primary purpose of this script is to ensure that traders maintain consistent risk management by aligning their lot size with their defined risk per trade and stop loss distance. This automated approach to risk ensures that traders stay disciplined with risk exposure.
### 6. **Efficiency for All Trading Styles**:
- Whether a trader is scalping, day trading, or swing trading, this calculator adjusts dynamically, allowing it to be used across various timeframes and asset classes. It helps traders avoid manual calculations for each trade, thus improving efficiency and reducing human error.
### 7. **Non-Intrusive Clean-Up**:
- The feature to **clear** the table when not needed ensures the chart remains clean and decluttered when the table is hidden. This improves the user experience, especially for traders who switch between different strategies or charts.
Overall, this script combines simplicity and efficiency while being flexible enough to fit the needs of a broad spectrum of traders. Its focus on user customization, clean interface, and emphasis on risk management makes it a valuable tool for both novice and experienced traders.
High/Low Breakout Statistical Analysis StrategyThis Pine Script strategy is designed to assist in the statistical analysis of breakout systems on a monthly, weekly, or daily timeframe. It allows the user to select whether to open a long or short position when the price breaks above or below the respective high or low for the chosen timeframe. The user can also define the holding period for each position in terms of bars.
Core Functionality:
Breakout Logic:
The strategy triggers trades based on price crossing over (for long positions) or crossing under (for short positions) the high or low of the selected period (daily, weekly, or monthly).
Timeframe Selection:
A dropdown menu enables the user to switch between the desired timeframe (monthly, weekly, or daily).
Trade Direction:
Another dropdown allows the user to select the type of trade (long or short) depending on whether the breakout occurs at the high or low of the timeframe.
Holding Period:
Once a trade is opened, it is automatically closed after a user-defined number of bars, making it useful for analyzing how breakout signals perform over short-term periods.
This strategy is intended exclusively for research and statistical purposes rather than real-time trading, helping users to assess the behavior of breakouts over different timeframes.
Relevance of Breakout Systems:
Breakout trading systems, where trades are executed when the price moves beyond a significant price level such as the high or low of a given period, have been extensively studied in financial literature for their potential predictive power.
Momentum and Trend Following:
Breakout strategies are a form of momentum-based trading, exploiting the tendency of prices to continue moving in the direction of a strong initial movement after breaching a critical support or resistance level. According to academic research, momentum strategies, including breakouts, can produce returns above average market returns when applied consistently. For example, Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) demonstrated that stocks that performed well in the past 3-12 months continued to outperform in the subsequent months, suggesting that price continuation patterns, like breakouts, hold value .
Market Efficiency Hypothesis:
While the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) posits that markets are generally efficient, and it is difficult to outperform the market through technical strategies, some studies show that in less liquid markets or during specific times of market stress, breakout systems can capitalize on temporary inefficiencies. Taylor (2005) and other researchers have found instances where breakout systems can outperform the market under certain conditions.
Volatility and Breakouts:
Breakouts are often linked to periods of increased volatility, which can generate trading opportunities. Coval and Shumway (2001) found that periods of heightened volatility can make breakouts more significant, increasing the likelihood that price trends will follow the breakout direction. This correlation between volatility and breakout reliability makes it essential to study breakouts across different timeframes to assess their potential profitability .
In summary, this breakout strategy offers an empirical way to study price behavior around key support and resistance levels. It is useful for researchers and traders aiming to statistically evaluate the effectiveness and consistency of breakout signals across different timeframes, contributing to broader research on momentum and market behavior.
References:
Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65-91.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1996). Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies. Journal of Finance, 51(1), 55-84.
Taylor, S. J. (2005). Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction. Princeton University Press.
Coval, J. D., & Shumway, T. (2001). Expected Option Returns. Journal of Finance, 56(3), 983-1009.
High Yield Spread Strategy with SMA FilterThis Pine Script strategy is designed for statistical analysis and research purposes only, not for live trading or financial decision-making. The script evaluates the relationship between financial volatility (measured by either the VIX or the High Yield Spread) and market positioning strategies (long or short) based on user-defined conditions. Specifically, it allows users to test the assumption that elevated levels of VIX or the High Yield Spread may justify short positions in the market—a widely held belief in financial circles—but this script demonstrates that shorting is not always the optimal choice, even under these conditions.
Key Components:
1. High Yield Spread and VIX:
• High Yield Spread is the difference between the yields of corporate high-yield (or “junk”) bonds and U.S. Treasury securities. A rising spread often reflects increased market risk perception.
• VIX (Volatility Index) is often referred to as the market’s “fear gauge.” Higher VIX levels usually indicate heightened market uncertainty or expected volatility.
2. Strategy Logic:
• The script allows users to specify a threshold for the VIX or High Yield Spread, and it automatically evaluates if the spread exceeds this level, which traditionally would suggest an environment for higher market risk and thus potentially favoring short trades.
• However, the strategy provides flexibility to enter long or short positions, even in a high-risk environment, emphasizing that a high VIX or High Yield Spread does not always warrant shorting.
3. SMA Filter:
• A Simple Moving Average (SMA) filter can be applied to the price data, where positions are only entered if the price is above or below the SMA (depending on the trade direction). This adds a technical component to the strategy, incorporating price trends into decision-making.
4. Hold Duration:
• The script also allows users to define how long to hold a position after entering, enabling an analysis of different timeframes.
Theoretical Background:
The traditional belief that high VIX or High Yield Spreads favor short positions is not universally supported by research. While a spike in the VIX or credit spreads is often associated with increased market risk, research suggests that excessive volatility does not always lead to negative returns. In fact, high volatility can sometimes signal an approaching market rebound.
For example:
• Studies have shown that long-term investments during periods of heightened volatility can yield favorable returns due to mean reversion. Whaley (2000) notes that VIX spikes are often followed by market recoveries as volatility tends to revert to its mean over time .
• Research by Blitz and Vliet (2007) highlights that low-volatility stocks have historically outperformed high-volatility stocks, suggesting that volatility may not always predict negative returns .
• Furthermore, credit spreads can widen in response to broader market stress, but these may overshoot the actual credit risk, presenting opportunities for long positions when spreads are high and risk premiums are mispriced .
Educational Purpose:
The goal of this script is to challenge assumptions about shorting during volatile periods, showing that long positions can be equally, if not more, effective during market stress. By incorporating an SMA filter and customizable logic for entering trades, users can test different hypotheses regarding the effectiveness of both long and short positions under varying market conditions.
Note: This strategy is not intended for live trading and should be used solely for educational and statistical exploration. Misinterpreting financial indicators can lead to incorrect investment decisions, and it is crucial to conduct comprehensive research before trading.
References:
1. Whaley, R. E. (2000). “The Investor Fear Gauge”. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 26(3), 12-17.
2. Blitz, D., & van Vliet, P. (2007). “The Volatility Effect: Lower Risk Without Lower Return”. Journal of Portfolio Management, 34(1), 102-113.
3. Bhamra, H. S., & Kuehn, L. A. (2010). “The Determinants of Credit Spreads: An Empirical Analysis”. Journal of Finance, 65(3), 1041-1072.
This explanation highlights the academic and research-backed foundation of the strategy and the nuances of volatility, while cautioning against the assumption that high VIX or High Yield Spread always calls for shorting.
Simplified Gap Strategy with SMA FilterThe Simplified Gap Strategy leverages price gaps as a trading signal, focusing on their significance in market behavior. Gaps occur when the opening price of a security differs significantly from the previous closing price, often signaling potential continuation or reversal patterns.
Key Features:
Gap Threshold:
This strategy requires a minimum percentage gap (defined by the user) to qualify for trading signals.
Directional Trading:
Users can select from various gap types, including "Long Up Gap" and "Short Down Gap," allowing for tailored trading approaches.
SMA Filter:
An optional Simple Moving Average (SMA) filter helps refine trade entries based on trend direction, increasing the probability of successful trades.
Hold Duration:
Positions can be held for a user-defined duration, providing flexibility in trade management.
Statistical Significance of Gaps:
Research has shown that gaps can provide insights into future price movements. According to studies such as those by Hutton and Jiang (2008), price gaps are often followed by momentum in the direction of the gap, indicating that they can serve as reliable indicators for traders. The "Gap Theory" suggests that gaps are filled approximately 90% of the time, emphasizing their relevance in market dynamics (Nikkinen, Sahlström, & Kinnunen, 2006).
Important Note:
This strategy is designed solely for statistical analysis and should not be construed as financial advice. Users are encouraged to conduct their own research and analysis before applying this strategy in live trading scenarios.
By understanding the underlying mechanisms of price gaps and their statistical significance, traders can enhance their decision-making processes and potentially improve trading outcomes.
References:
Hutton, A. W., & Jiang, W. (2008). "Price Gaps: A Guide to Trading Gaps."
Nikkinen, J., Sahlström, P., & Kinnunen, J. (2006). "The Gaps in Financial Markets: An Empirical Study."
This description provides an overview of the strategy while emphasizing its analytical purpose and backing it with relevant academic insights.
Streak-Based Trading StrategyThe strategy outlined in the provided script is a streak-based trading strategy that focuses on analyzing winning and losing streaks. It’s important to emphasize that this strategy is not intended for actual trading but rather for statistical analysis of streak series.
How the Strategy Works
1. Parameter Definition:
• Trade Direction: Users can choose between “Long” (buy) and “Short” (sell).
• Streak Threshold: Defines how many consecutive wins or losses are needed to trigger a trade.
• Hold Duration: Specifies how many periods the position will be held.
• Doji Threshold: Determines the sensitivity for Doji candles, which indicate market uncertainty.
2. Streak Calculation:
• The script identifies Doji candles and counts winning and losing streaks based on the closing price compared to the previous closing price.
• Streak counting occurs only when no position is currently held.
3. Trade Conditions:
• If the loss streak reaches the defined threshold and the trade direction is “Long,” a buy position is opened.
• If the win streak is met and the trade direction is “Short,” a sell position is opened.
• The position is held for the specified duration.
4. Visualization:
• Winning and losing streaks are plotted as histograms to facilitate analysis.
Scientific Basis
The concept of analyzing streaks in financial markets is well-documented in behavioral economics and finance. Studies have shown that markets often exhibit momentum and trend-following behavior, meaning the likelihood of consecutive winning or losing periods can be higher than what random statistics would suggest (see, for example, “The Behavior of Stock-Market Prices” by Eugene Fama).
Additionally, empirical research indicates that investors often make decisions based on psychological factors influenced by streaks. This can lead to irrational behavior, as they may focus on past wins or losses (see “Behavioral Finance: Psychology, Decision-Making, and Markets” by R. M. F. F. Thaler).
Overall, this strategy serves as a tool for statistical analysis of streak series, providing deeper insights into market behavior and trends rather than being directly used for trading decisions.
QuantBuilder | FractalystWhat's the strategy's purpose and functionality?
QuantBuilder is designed for both traders and investors who want to utilize mathematical techniques to develop profitable strategies through backtesting on historical data.
The primary goal is to develop profitable quantitive strategies that not only outperform the underlying asset in terms of returns but also minimize drawdown.
For instance, consider Bitcoin (BTC), which has experienced significant volatility, averaging an estimated 200% annual return over the past decade, with maximum drawdowns exceeding -80%. By employing this strategy with diverse entry and exit techniques, users can potentially seek to enhance their Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) while managing risk to maintain a lower maximum drawdown.
While this strategy employs quantitative techniques, including mathematical methods such as probabilities and positive expected values, it demonstrates exceptional efficacy across all markets. It particularly excels in futures, indices, stocks, cryptocurrencies, and commodities, leveraging their inherent trending behaviors for optimized performance.
In both trending and consolidating market conditions, QuantBuilder employs a combination of multi-timeframe probabilities, expected values, directional biases, moving averages and diverse entry models to identify and capitalize on bullish market movements.
How does the strategy perform for both investors and traders?
The strategy has two main modes, tailored for different market participants: Traders and Investors.
1. Trading:
- Designed for traders looking to capitalize on bullish markets.
- Utilizes a percentage risk per trade to manage risk and optimize returns.
- Suitable for both swing and intraday trading with a focus on probabilities and risk per trade approach.
2. Investing:
- Geared towards investors who aim to capitalize on bullish trending markets without using leverage while mitigating the asset's maximum drawdown.
- Utilizes pre-define percentage of the equity to buy, hold, and manage the asset.
- Focuses on long-term growth and capital appreciation by fully/partially investing in the asset during bullish conditions.
How does the strategy identify market structure? What are the underlying calculations?
The strategy utilizes an efficient logic with for loops to pinpoint the first swing candle featuring a pivot of 2, establishing the point at which the break of structure begins.
What entry criteria are used in this script? What are the underlying calculations?
The script utilizes two entry models: BreakOut and fractal.
Underlying Calculations:
Breakout: The script assigns the most recent swing high to a variable. When the price closes above this level and all other conditions are met, the script executes a breakout entry (conservative approach).
Fractal: The script identifies a swing low with a period of 2. Once this condition is met, the script executes the trade (aggressive approach).
How does the script calculate probabilities? What are the underlying calculations?
The script calculates probabilities by monitoring price interactions with liquidity levels. Here’s how the underlying calculations work:
Tracking Price Hits: The script counts the number of times the price taps into each liquidity side after the EQM level is activated. This data is stored in an array for further analysis.
Sample Size Consideration: The total number of price interactions serves as the sample size for calculating probabilities.
Probability Calculation: For each liquidity side, the script calculates the probability by taking the average of the recorded hits. This allows for a dynamic assessment of the likelihood that a particular side will be hit next, based on historical performance.
Dynamic Adjustment: As new price data comes in, the probabilities are recalculated, providing real-time aduptive insights into market behavior.
Note: The calculations are performed independently for each directional range. A range is considered bearish if the previous breakout was through a sellside liquidity. Conversely, a range is considered bullish if the most recent breakout was through a buyside liquidity.
How does the script calculate expected values? What are the underlying calculations?
The script calculates expected values by leveraging the probabilities of winning and losing trades, along with their respective returns. The process involves the following steps:
This quantitative methodology provides a robust framework for assessing the expected performance of trading strategies based on historical data and backtesting results.
How is the contextual bias calculated? What are the underlying calculations?
The contextual bias in the QuantBuilder script is calculated through a structured approach that assesses market structure based on swing highs and lows. Here’s how it works:
Identification of Swing Points: The script identifies significant swing points using a defined pivot logic, focusing on the first swing high and swing low. This helps establish critical levels for determining market structure.
Break of Structure (BOS) Assessment:
Bullish BOS: The script recognizes a bullish break of structure when a candle closes above the first swing high, followed by at least one swing low.
Bearish BOS: Conversely, a bearish break of structure is identified when a candle closes below the first swing low, followed by at least one swing high.
Bias Assignment: Based on the identified break of structure, the script assigns directional biases:
A bullish bias is assigned if a bullish BOS is confirmed.
A bearish bias is assigned if a bearish BOS is confirmed.
Quantitative Evaluation: Each identified bias is quantitatively evaluated, allowing the script to assign numerical values representing the strength of each bias. This quantification aids in assessing the reliability of market sentiment across multiple timeframes.
What's the purpose of using moving averages in this strategy? What are the underlying calculations?
Using moving averages is a widely-used technique to trade with the trend.
The main purpose of using moving averages in this strategy is to filter out bearish price action and to only take trades when the price is trading ABOVE specified moving averages.
The script uses different types of moving averages with user-adjustable timeframes and periods/lengths, allowing traders to try out different variations to maximize strategy performance and minimize drawdowns.
By applying these calculations, the strategy effectively identifies bullish trends and avoids market conditions that are not conducive to profitable trades.
The MA filter allows traders to choose whether they want a specific moving average above or below another one as their entry condition.
What type of stop-loss identification method are used in this strategy? What are the underlying calculations?
- Initial Stop-loss:
1. ATR Based:
The Average True Range (ATR) is a method used in technical analysis to measure volatility. It is not used to indicate the direction of price but to measure volatility, especially volatility caused by price gaps or limit moves.
Calculation:
- To calculate the ATR, the True Range (TR) first needs to be identified. The TR takes into account the most current period high/low range as well as the previous period close.
The True Range is the largest of the following:
- Current Period High minus Current Period Low
- Absolute Value of Current Period High minus Previous Period Close
- Absolute Value of Current Period Low minus Previous Period Close
- The ATR is then calculated as the moving average of the TR over a specified period. (The default period is 14)
2. ADR Based:
The Average Day Range (ADR) is an indicator that measures the volatility of an asset by showing the average movement of the price between the high and the low over the last several days.
Calculation:
- To calculate the ADR for a particular day:
- Calculate the average of the high prices over a specified number of days.
- Calculate the average of the low prices over the same number of days.
- Find the difference between these average values.
- The default period for calculating the ADR is 14 days. A shorter period may introduce more noise, while a longer period may be slower to react to new market movements.
3. PL Based:
This method places the stop-loss at the low of the previous candle.
If the current entry is based on the hunt entry strategy, the stop-loss will be placed at the low of the candle that wicks through the lower FRMA band.
Example:
If the previous candle's low is 100, then the stop-loss will be set at 100.
This method ensures the stop-loss is placed just below the most recent significant low, providing a logical and immediate level for risk management.
- Trailing Stop-Loss:
One of the key elements of this strategy is its ability to detect structural liquidity and structural invalidation levels across multiple timeframes to trail the stop-loss once the trade is in running profits.
By utilizing this approach, the strategy allows enough room for price to run.
By using these methods, the strategy dynamically adjusts the initial stop-loss based on market volatility, helping to protect against adverse price movements while allowing for enough room for trades to develop.
Each market behaves differently across various timeframes, and it is essential to test different parameters and optimizations to find out which trailing stop-loss method gives you the desired results and performance.
What type of break-even and take profit identification methods are used in this strategy? What are the underlying calculations?
For Break-Even:
Percentage (%) Based:
Moves the initial stop-loss to the entry price when the price reaches a certain percentage above the entry.
Calculation:
Break-even level = Entry Price * (1 + Percentage / 100)
Example:
If the entry price is $100 and the break-even percentage is 5%, the break-even level is $100 * 1.05 = $105.
Risk-to-Reward (RR) Based:
Moves the initial stop-loss to the entry price when the price reaches a certain RR ratio.
Calculation:
Break-even level = Entry Price + (Initial Risk * RR Ratio)
For TP1 (Take Profit 1):
- You can choose to set a take profit level at which your position gets fully closed or 50% if the TP2 boolean is enabled.
- Similar to break-even, you can select either a percentage (%) or risk-to-reward (RR) based take profit level, allowing you to set your TP1 level as a percentage amount above the entry price or based on RR.
For TP2 (Take Profit 2):
- You can choose to set a take profit level at which your position gets fully closed.
- As with break-even and TP1, you can select either a percentage (%) or risk-to-reward (RR) based take profit level, allowing you to set your TP2 level as a percentage amount above the entry price or based on RR.
What's the day filter Filter, what does it do?
The day filter allows users to customize the session time and choose the specific days they want to include in the strategy session. This helps traders tailor their strategies to particular trading sessions or days of the week when they believe the market conditions are more favorable for their trading style.
Customize Session Time:
Users can define the start and end times for the trading session.
This allows the strategy to only consider trades within the specified time window, focusing on periods of higher market activity or preferred trading hours.
Select Days:
Users can select which days of the week to include in the strategy.
This feature is useful for excluding days with historically lower volatility or unfavorable trading conditions (e.g., Mondays or Fridays).
Benefits:
Focus on Optimal Trading Periods:
By customizing session times and days, traders can focus on periods when the market is more likely to present profitable opportunities.
Avoid Unfavorable Conditions:
Excluding specific days or times can help avoid trading during periods of low liquidity or high unpredictability, such as major news events or holidays.
What tables are available in this script?
- Summary: Provides a general overview, displaying key performance parameters such as Net Profit, Profit Factor, Max Drawdown, Average Trade, Closed Trades and more.
Total Commission: Displays the cumulative commissions incurred from all trades executed within the selected backtesting window. This value is derived by summing the commission fees for each trade on your chart.
Average Commission: Represents the average commission per trade, calculated by dividing the Total Commission by the total number of closed trades. This metric is crucial for assessing the impact of trading costs on overall profitability.
Avg Trade: The sum of money gained or lost by the average trade generated by a strategy. Calculated by dividing the Net Profit by the overall number of closed trades. An important value since it must be large enough to cover the commission and slippage costs of trading the strategy and still bring a profit.
MaxDD: Displays the largest drawdown of losses, i.e., the maximum possible loss that the strategy could have incurred among all of the trades it has made. This value is calculated separately for every bar that the strategy spends with an open position.
Profit Factor: The amount of money a trading strategy made for every unit of money it lost (in the selected currency). This value is calculated by dividing gross profits by gross losses.
Avg RR: This is calculated by dividing the average winning trade by the average losing trade. This field is not a very meaningful value by itself because it does not take into account the ratio of the number of winning vs losing trades, and strategies can have different approaches to profitability. A strategy may trade at every possibility in order to capture many small profits, yet have an average losing trade greater than the average winning trade. The higher this value is, the better, but it should be considered together with the percentage of winning trades and the net profit.
Winrate: The percentage of winning trades generated by a strategy. Calculated by dividing the number of winning trades by the total number of closed trades generated by a strategy. Percent profitable is not a very reliable measure by itself. A strategy could have many small winning trades, making the percent profitable high with a small average winning trade, or a few big winning trades accounting for a low percent profitable and a big average winning trade. Most mean-reversion successful strategies have a percent profitability of 40-80% but are profitable due to risk management control.
BE Trades: Number of break-even trades, excluding commission/slippage.
Losing Trades: The total number of losing trades generated by the strategy.
Winning Trades: The total number of winning trades generated by the strategy.
Total Trades: Total number of taken traders visible your charts.
Net Profit: The overall profit or loss (in the selected currency) achieved by the trading strategy in the test period. The value is the sum of all values from the Profit column (on the List of Trades tab), taking into account the sign.
- Monthly: Displays performance data on a month-by-month basis, allowing users to analyze performance trends over each month and year.
- Weekly: Displays performance data on a week-by-week basis, helping users to understand weekly performance variations.
- UI Table: A user-friendly table that allows users to view and save the selected strategy parameters from user inputs. This table enables easy access to key settings and configurations, providing a straightforward solution for saving strategy parameters by simply taking a screenshot with Alt + S or ⌥ + S.
User-input styles and customizations:
To facilitate studying historical data, all conditions and filters can be applied to your charts. By plotting background colors on your charts, you'll be able to identify what worked and what didn't in certain market conditions.
Please note that all background colors in the style are disabled by default to enhance visualization.
How to Use This Quantitive Strategy Builder to Create a Profitable Edge and System?
Choose Your Strategy mode:
- Decide whether you are creating an investing strategy or a trading strategy.
Select a Market:
- Choose a one-sided market such as stocks, indices, or cryptocurrencies.
Historical Data:
- Ensure the historical data covers at least 10 years of price action for robust backtesting.
Timeframe Selection:
- Choose the timeframe you are comfortable trading with. It is strongly recommended to use a timeframe above 15 minutes to minimize the impact of commissions/slippage on your profits.
Set Commission and Slippage:
- Properly set the commission and slippage in the strategy properties according to your broker/prop firm specifications.
Parameter Optimization:
- Use trial and error to test different parameters until you find the performance results you are looking for in the summary table or, preferably, through deep backtesting using the strategy tester.
Trade Count:
- Ensure the number of trades is 200 or more; the higher, the better for statistical significance.
Positive Average Trade:
- Make sure the average trade is above zero.
(An important value since it must be large enough to cover the commission and slippage costs of trading the strategy and still bring a profit.)
Performance Metrics:
- Look for a high profit factor, and net profit with minimum drawdown.
- Ideally, aim for a drawdown under 20-30%, depending on your risk tolerance.
Refinement and Optimization:
- Try out different markets and timeframes.
- Continue working on refining your edge using the available filters and components to further optimize your strategy.
What makes this strategy original?
QuantBuilder stands out due to its unique combination of quantitative techniques and innovative algorithms that leverage historical data for real-time trading decisions. Unlike most algorithmic strategies that work based on predefined rules, this strategy adapts to real-time market probabilities and expected values, enhancing its reliability. Key features include:
Mathematical Framework: The strategy integrates advanced mathematical concepts, such as probabilities and expected values, to assess trade viability and optimize decision-making.
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: By utilizing multi-timeframe probabilities, QuantBuilder provides a comprehensive view of market conditions, enhancing the accuracy of entry and exit points.
Dynamic Market Structure Identification: The script employs a systematic approach to identify market structure changes, utilizing a blend of swing highs and lows to detect contextual/direction bias of the market.
Built-in Trailing Stop Loss: The strategy features a dynamic trailing stop loss based on multi-timeframe analysis of market structure. This allows traders to lock in profits while adapting to changing market conditions, ensuring that exits are executed at optimal levels without prematurely closing positions.
Robust Performance Metrics: With detailed performance tables and visualizations, users can easily evaluate strategy effectiveness and adjust parameters based on historical performance.
Adaptability: The strategy is designed to work across various markets and timeframes, making it versatile for different trading styles and objectives.
Suitability for Investors and Traders: QuantBuilder is ideal for both investors and traders looking to rely on mathematically proven data to create profitable strategies, ensuring that decisions are grounded in quantitative analysis.
These original elements combine to create a powerful tool that can help both traders and investors to build and refine profitable strategies based on algorithmic quantitative analysis.
Terms and Conditions | Disclaimer
Our charting tools are provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or trading advice. They are not intended to forecast market movements or offer specific recommendations. Users should understand that past performance does not guarantee future results and should not base financial decisions solely on historical data.
Built-in components, features, and functionalities of our charting tools are the intellectual property of @Fractalyst Unauthorized use, reproduction, or distribution of these proprietary elements is prohibited.
By continuing to use our charting tools, the user acknowledges and accepts the Terms and Conditions outlined in this legal disclaimer and agrees to respect our intellectual property rights and comply with all applicable laws and regulations.
Winning and Losing StreaksThe Pine Script indicator "Winning and Losing Streaks" tracks and visualizes the length of consecutive winning and losing streaks in a financial series, such as stock prices. Here’s a detailed description of the indicator, including the relevance of statistical analysis and streak tracking.
Indicator Description
The "Winning and Losing Streaks" indicator in Pine Script is designed to analyze and display streaks of consecutive winning and losing days in trading data. It helps traders and analysts understand the persistence of trends in price movements.
Here’s how it functions:
Streak Calculation:
Winning Streak: A series of consecutive days where the closing price is higher than the previous day's closing price.
Losing Streak: A series of consecutive days where the closing price is lower than the previous day's closing price.
Doji Candles: The indicator also considers Doji candles, where the difference between the opening and closing prices is minimal relative to the high-low range, and excludes these from being counted as winning or losing days.
Statistical Analysis:
The indicator computes the maximum and average lengths of winning and losing streaks.
It also tracks the current streak lengths and maintains arrays to store the historical streak data.
Visualization:
Histograms: Winning and losing streaks are visualized using histograms, which provide a clear graphical representation of streak lengths over time.
Relevance of Statistical Analysis and Streak Tracking
1. Statistical Significance of Streaks
Tracking winning and losing streaks has significant statistical implications for trading strategies and risk management:
Autocorrelation: Streaks in financial time series can reveal autocorrelation, where past returns influence future returns. Studies have shown that financial time series often exhibit autocorrelation, which can be used to forecast future price movements (Lo, 1991; Jegadeesh & Titman, 1993). Understanding streaks helps in identifying and leveraging these patterns.
Behavioral Finance: Streak analysis aligns with concepts from behavioral finance, such as the "hot-hand fallacy," where investors may perceive trends as more persistent than they are (Gilovich, Vallone, & Tversky, 1985). Statistical streak analysis provides a more objective view of trend persistence, helping to avoid biases.
2. Risk Management and Strategy Development
Risk Assessment: Identifying the length and frequency of losing streaks is crucial for managing risk and adjusting trading strategies. Long losing streaks can indicate potential strategy weaknesses or market regime changes, prompting a reassessment of trading rules and risk management practices (Brock, Lakonishok, & LeBaron, 1992).
Strategy Optimization: Statistical analysis of streaks can aid in optimizing trading strategies. For example, understanding the average length of winning and losing streaks can help in setting more effective stop-loss and take-profit levels, as well as in determining the optimal position sizing (Fama & French, 1993).
Scientific References:
Lo, A. W. (1991). "Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices." Econometrica, 59(5), 1279-1313. This paper discusses the presence of long-term memory in stock prices, which is relevant for understanding the persistence of streaks.
Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency." Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65-91. This study explores momentum and reversal strategies, which are related to the concept of streaks.
Gilovich, T., Vallone, R., & Tversky, A. (1985). "The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences." Cognitive Psychology, 17(3), 295-314. This paper provides insight into the psychological aspects of streaks and persistence.
Brock, W., Lakonishok, J., & LeBaron, B. (1992). "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns." Journal of Finance, 47(5), 1731-1764. This research examines the effectiveness of technical trading rules, relevant for streak-based strategies.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1993). "Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds." Journal of Financial Economics, 33(1), 3-56. This paper provides a foundation for understanding risk factors and strategy performance.
By analyzing streaks, traders can gain valuable insights into market dynamics and refine their trading strategies based on empirical evidence.
TPS Short Strategy by Larry ConnersThe TPS Short strategy aims to capitalize on extreme overbought conditions in an ETF by employing a scaling-in approach when certain technical indicators signal potential reversals. The strategy is designed to short the ETF when it is deemed overextended, based on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and moving averages.
Components:
200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA):
Purpose: Acts as a long-term trend filter. The ETF must be below its 200-day SMA to be eligible for shorting.
Rationale: The 200-day SMA is widely used to gauge the long-term trend of a security. When the price is below this moving average, it is often considered to be in a downtrend (Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll, "The New Technical Trader: Boost Your Profit by Plugging Into the Latest Indicators").
2-Period RSI:
Purpose: Measures the speed and change of price movements to identify overbought conditions.
Criteria: Short 10% of the position when the 2-period RSI is above 75 for two consecutive days.
Rationale: A high RSI value (above 75) indicates that the ETF may be overbought, which could precede a price reversal (J. Welles Wilder, "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems").
Scaling-In Mechanism:
Purpose: Gradually increase the short position as the ETF price rises beyond previous entry points.
Scaling Strategy:
20% more when the price is higher than the first entry.
30% more when the price is higher than the second entry.
40% more when the price is higher than the third entry.
Rationale: This incremental approach allows for an increased position size in a worsening trend, potentially increasing profitability if the trend continues to align with the strategy’s premise (Marty Schwartz, "Pit Bull: Lessons from Wall Street's Champion Day Trader").
Exit Conditions:
Criteria: Close all positions when the 2-period RSI drops below 30 or the 10-day SMA crosses above the 30-day SMA.
Rationale: A low RSI value (below 30) suggests that the ETF may be oversold and could be poised for a rebound, while the SMA crossover indicates a potential change in the trend (Martin J. Pring, "Technical Analysis Explained").
Risks and Considerations:
Market Risk:
The strategy assumes that the ETF will continue to decline once shorted. However, markets can be unpredictable, and price movements might not align with the strategy's expectations, especially in a volatile market (Nassim Nicholas Taleb, "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable").
Scaling Risks:
Scaling into a position as the price increases may increase exposure to adverse price movements. This method can amplify losses if the market moves against the position significantly before any reversal occurs.
Liquidity Risk:
Depending on the ETF’s liquidity, executing large trades in increments might affect the price and increase trading costs. It is crucial to ensure that the ETF has sufficient liquidity to handle large trades without significant slippage (James Altucher, "Trade Like a Hedge Fund").
Execution Risk:
The strategy relies on timely execution of trades based on specific conditions. Delays or errors in order execution can impact performance, especially in fast-moving markets.
Technical Indicator Limitations:
Technical indicators like RSI and SMA are based on historical data and may not always predict future price movements accurately. They can sometimes produce false signals, leading to potential losses if used in isolation (John Murphy, "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets").
Conclusion
The TPS Short strategy utilizes a combination of long-term trend filtering, overbought conditions, and incremental shorting to potentially profit from price reversals. While the strategy has a structured approach and leverages well-known technical indicators, it is essential to be aware of the inherent risks, including market volatility, liquidity issues, and potential limitations of technical indicators. As with any trading strategy, thorough backtesting and risk management are crucial to its successful implementation.
Currency Futures StatisticsThe "Currency Futures Statistics" indicator provides comprehensive insights into the performance and characteristics of various currency futures. This indicator is crucial for portfolio management as it combines multiple metrics that are instrumental in evaluating currency futures' risk and return profiles.
Metrics Included:
Historical Volatility:
Definition: Historical volatility measures the standard deviation of returns over a specified period, scaled to an annual basis.
Importance: High volatility indicates greater price fluctuations, which translates to higher risk. Investors and portfolio managers use volatility to gauge the stability of a currency future and to make informed decisions about risk management and position sizing (Hull, J. C. (2017). Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives).
Open Interest:
Definition: Open interest represents the total number of outstanding futures contracts that are held by market participants.
Importance: High open interest often signifies liquidity in the market, meaning that entering and exiting positions is less likely to impact the price significantly. It also reflects market sentiment and the degree of participation in the futures market (Black, F., & Scholes, M. (1973). The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities).
Year-over-Year (YoY) Performance:
Definition: YoY performance calculates the percentage change in the futures contract's price compared to the same week from the previous year.
Importance: This metric provides insight into the long-term trend and relative performance of a currency future. Positive YoY performance suggests strengthening trends, while negative values indicate weakening trends (Fama, E. F. (1991). Efficient Capital Markets: II).
200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) Position:
Definition: This metric indicates whether the current price of the currency future is above or below its 200-day simple moving average.
Importance: The 200-day SMA is a widely used trend indicator. If the price is above the SMA, it suggests a bullish trend, while being below indicates a bearish trend. This information is vital for trend-following strategies and can help in making buy or sell decisions (Bollinger, J. (2001). Bollinger on Bollinger Bands).
Why These Metrics are Important for Portfolio Management:
Risk Assessment: Historical volatility and open interest provide essential information for assessing the risk associated with currency futures. Understanding the volatility helps in estimating potential price swings, which is crucial for managing risk and setting appropriate stop-loss levels.
Liquidity and Market Participation: Open interest is a critical indicator of market liquidity. Higher open interest usually means tighter bid-ask spreads and better liquidity, which facilitates smoother trading and better execution of trades.
Trend Analysis: YoY performance and the SMA position help in analyzing long-term trends. This analysis is crucial for making strategic investment decisions and adjusting the portfolio based on changing market conditions.
Informed Decision-Making: Combining these metrics allows for a holistic view of the currency futures market. This comprehensive view helps in making informed decisions, balancing risks and returns, and optimizing the portfolio to align with investment goals.
In summary, the "Currency Futures Statistics" indicator equips investors and portfolio managers with valuable data points that are essential for effective risk management, liquidity assessment, trend analysis, and overall portfolio optimization.
Sygnały Long/Short z SL i TPChoosing the Best Timeframe for Your Trading Strategy
The ideal timeframe for your trading strategy depends on several factors, including your trading style, risk preferences, and the goals of your strategy. Here’s a guide to different timeframes and their applications:
Timeframes and Their Uses:
Short-Term Timeframes (e.g., 5-minute, 15-minute):
Advantages: Provide more frequent signals and allow for quick responses to market changes. Ideal for day traders who prefer short, rapid trades.
Disadvantages: Can generate more false signals and be more susceptible to market noise. Requires more frequent attention and monitoring.
Medium-Term Timeframes (e.g., 1-hour, 4-hour):
Advantages: Offer fewer false signals compared to shorter timeframes. Suitable for swing traders looking to capture short-term trends.
Disadvantages: Fewer signals compared to shorter timeframes. Requires less frequent monitoring.
Long-Term Timeframes (e.g., daily, weekly):
Advantages: Provide more stable signals and are less affected by market noise. Ideal for long-term investors and those trading based on trends.
Disadvantages: Fewer signals, which may be less frequent but more reliable. Requires longer confirmation times.
Recommendation for Your Strategy:
For a strategy based on moving averages (MA) and generating long/short signals, the 5-minute and 15-minute timeframes might be suitable if:
You are a day trader and want to generate multiple signals per day.
You prefer quick responses to price changes and want to execute trades within a shorter timeframe.
For more stable signals and fewer false signals:
1-hour or 4-hour timeframes might be more appropriate.
Testing and Optimization:
Test Different Timeframes: See how your strategy performs on various timeframes to find the one that works best for you.
Adjust Parameters: Modify the lengths of the short and long SMAs, as well as the SL and TP levels, to fit the chosen timeframe.
How to Test:
Add the script to your chart on different timeframes on TradingView.
Observe the effectiveness and accuracy of the signals.
Adjust settings based on results and personal preferences.
Summary:
There isn’t a single “best” timeframe as it depends on your trading style and objectives. Start by testing on shorter timeframes if you are interested in day trading, and then explore how the strategy performs on longer timeframes for more stable signals.
