Correlation with AveragesThe "Correlation with Averages" indicator is designed to visualize and analyze the correlation between a selected asset's price and a base symbol's price, such as the S&P 500 (SPY). This indicator allows users to evaluate how closely an asset’s price movements align with those of the base symbol over various time periods, providing insights into market trends and potential portfolio adjustments.
Key Features:
Base Symbol and Correlation Period:
Users can specify the base symbol (default is SPY) and the period for correlation measurement (default is 252 trading days, approximating one year).
Correlation Calculation:
The indicator computes the correlation between the asset’s closing price and the base symbol’s closing price for the defined period.
Visualization:
The correlation value is plotted on the chart, with conditional background colors indicating the strength and direction of the correlation:
Red for negative correlation (below -0.5)
Green for positive correlation (above 0.5)
Yellow for neutral correlation (between -0.5 and 0.5)
Average Correlation Over Time:
Average correlations are calculated and displayed for various periods: one week, one month, one year, and five years.
A table on the chart provides dynamic updates of these average values with color-coded backgrounds to indicate correlation strength.
The Role of Correlation in Portfolio Management
Correlation is a crucial concept in portfolio management because it measures the degree to which two securities move in relation to each other. Understanding correlation helps investors construct diversified portfolios that balance risk and return. Here's why correlation is important:
Diversification:
By including assets with low or negative correlation in a portfolio, investors can reduce overall portfolio volatility and risk. For instance, if one asset is negatively correlated with another, when one performs poorly, the other may perform well, thus smoothing the overall returns.
Risk Management:
Correlation analysis helps in identifying the potential impact of one asset’s performance on the entire portfolio. Assets with high correlation can lead to concentrated risk, while those with low correlation offer better risk management.
Performance Analysis:
Correlation measures the degree to which asset returns move together. This can inform strategic decisions, such as whether to adjust positions based on expected market conditions.
Scientific References
Markowitz, H. M. (1952). "Portfolio Selection." Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
This foundational paper introduced Modern Portfolio Theory, highlighting the importance of diversification and correlation in reducing portfolio risk.
Jorion, P. (2007). Financial Risk Manager Handbook. Wiley.
This handbook provides an in-depth exploration of risk management techniques, including the use of correlation in portfolio management.
Elton, E. J., Gruber, M. J., Brown, S. J., & Goetzmann, W. N. (2014). Modern Portfolio Theory and Investment Analysis. Wiley.
This book elaborates on the concepts of correlation and diversification, offering practical insights into portfolio construction and risk management.
By utilizing the "Correlation with Averages" indicator, traders and portfolio managers can make informed decisions based on the relationship between asset prices and the base symbol, ultimately enhancing their investment strategies.
Portfolio management
Risk TrackerThis Risk Tracker Pine Script provides traders with a customizable tool for tracking and managing trade risk directly on their chart. The script is designed to accommodate both futures and crypto trades, allowing you to monitor risk and reward parameters, adjust contract sizes, and manage leverage in real-time.
Key Features:
1. Trade Direction and Risk-Reward Ratio:
• Select between Long or Short trade directions.
• Set a custom Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) to calculate potential profit and loss levels based on your trade setup.
2. Customizable Parameters:
• Input fields for contract size, leverage, margin, and maximum drawdown allow you to adjust the risk settings depending on the market you are trading.
• You can toggle between using a dollar-based or percentage-based risk calculation depending on whether you’re trading futures (USD-based) or crypto.
3. Real-time Stop-Loss and Take-Profit Calculation:
• The script automatically calculates and draws the Stop-Loss (SL) and Take-Profit (TP) levels on the chart based on your entry price and selected risk settings.
• The color of the SL and TP lines is customizable, allowing you to visually distinguish profit and loss levels.
4. Historical Price Levels:
• If there is no active trade, the script scans historical price data to find the last instances when the price hit the predefined stop-loss or take-profit levels, helping you understand past price behavior.
5. Risk Management Table:
• A summary table is displayed on the chart, showing the key metrics of your trade, including:
• Tick value and Dollar value for futures.
• Margin and Leverage for crypto.
• Risk-Reward Ratio, Entry price, Risk and Profit in USD or percentage terms.
• The table dynamically updates based on the current trade status.
6. Extended Chart Visualization:
• Option to extend the SL and TP lines to the left of the chart, allowing you to easily view these levels across multiple timeframes and bars.
This script helps ensure you are always aware of your trade’s risk profile, providing a clear and visual representation of potential profit and loss, both in terms of percentage and dollar value. Ideal for futures and crypto traders who rely on precise risk management to maintain profitability.
Investments Follower Table
🔸 Investments Follower Table is a useful tool to visualize the performance of your investments, regardless of which graph you are viewing.
🔸 By entering the name and the quantities of the stock you own, and your average purchase price, you can view the percentage changes and the profit/loss of your investments, regardless of the graph you’re viewing.
🔸 This indicator allows you to follow 4 stocks at the same time.
🔸 When you first open the indicator, you won’t see the table until you’ll fill the fields necessary to show the data.
🔸 Explanation of the menu:
- % TABLE toggle: Turns On and Off the table
- $ TABLE toggle: This function removes the column of the profit or loss in $. The percentage one will be kept.
- TICKER 1/2/3/4: It’s the part of the settings in which you put the name of the share you own.
- ONLY VALUES toggle: Reduces the table by removing the name of the ticker.
- REDUCED TABLE toggle: Removes all the rows of the table associated to the single investment, to just keep the summery of all the investments active
🔸If you turn off a toggle, but keeping some values inside the menu, the table will also consider that values in the calculation of the summery into the table. To avoid this, you just need to put in the A.P.P. and in the QTY the value “0”.
🔸If you want to reset the indicator, you just have to click “Defaults” in the bottom left corner, and then “Reset settings”.
Larry Connors 3 Day High/Low StrategyThe Larry Connors 3 Day High/Low Strategy is a short-term mean-reversion trading strategy that is designed to identify potential buying opportunities when a security is oversold. This strategy is based on the principles developed by Larry Connors, a well-known trading system developer and author.
Key Strategy Elements:
1. Trend Confirmation: The strategy first confirms that the security is in a long-term uptrend by ensuring that the closing price is above the 200-day moving average (condition1). This rule helps filter trades to align with the longer-term trend.
2. Short-Term Pullback: The strategy looks for a short-term pullback by ensuring that the closing price is below the 5-day moving average (condition2). This identifies potential entry points when the price temporarily moves against the longer-term trend.
3. Three Consecutive Lower Highs and Lows:
• The high and low two days ago are lower than those of the day before (condition3).
• The high and low yesterday are lower than those of two days ago (condition4).
• Today’s high and low are lower than yesterday’s (condition5).
These conditions are used to identify a sequence of declining highs and lows, signaling a short-term pullback or oversold condition in the context of an overall uptrend.
4. Entry and Exit Signals:
• Buy Signal: A buy order is triggered when all the above conditions are met (buyCondition).
• Sell Signal: A sell order is executed when the closing price is above the 5-day moving average (sellCondition), indicating that the pullback might be ending.
Risks of the Strategy
1. Mean Reversion Failure: This strategy relies on the assumption that prices will revert to the mean after a short-term pullback. In strong downtrends or during market crashes, prices may continue to decline, leading to significant losses.
2. Whipsaws and False Signals: The strategy may generate false signals, especially in choppy or sideways markets where the price does not follow a clear trend. This can lead to frequent small losses that can add up over time.
3. Dependence on Historical Patterns: The strategy is based on historical price patterns, which do not always predict future price movements accurately. Sudden market news or economic changes can disrupt the pattern.
4. Lack of Risk Management: The strategy as written does not include stop losses or position sizing rules, which can expose traders to larger-than-expected losses if conditions change rapidly.
About Larry Connors
Larry Connors is a renowned trader, author, and founder of Connors Research and TradingMarkets.com. He is widely recognized for his development of quantitative trading strategies, especially those focusing on short-term mean reversion techniques. Connors has authored several books on trading, including “Short-Term Trading Strategies That Work” and “Street Smarts,” co-authored with Linda Raschke. His strategies are known for their systematic, rules-based approach and have been widely used by traders and investment professionals.
Connors’ research often emphasizes the importance of trading with the trend, managing risk, and using statistically validated techniques to improve trading outcomes. His work has been influential in the field of quantitative trading, providing accessible strategies for traders at various skill levels.
References
1. Connors, L., & Raschke, L. (1995). Street Smarts: High Probability Short-Term Trading Strategies.
2. Connors, L. (2009). Short-Term Trading Strategies That Work.
3. Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1988). Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices. Journal of Political Economy, 96(2), 246-273.
This strategy and its variations are popular among traders looking to capitalize on short-term price movements while aligning with longer-term trends. However, like all trading strategies, it requires rigorous backtesting and risk management to ensure its effectiveness under different market conditions.
Fractal Proximity MA Aligment Scalping StrategyFractal Analysis
Fractals in trading help identify potential reversal points by marking significant price changes. Our strategy calculates a "fractal value" by comparing the current price to recent high and low fractal points. This is done by evaluating the sum of distances from the current closing price to the recent highs and lows. A positive fractal value suggests proximity to recent lows, hinting at upward momentum. Conversely, a negative value indicates closeness to recent highs, signaling potential downward movement.
Moving Averages for Confirmation
We use a series of 20 moving averages ranging from 5 to 100 to confirm trend directions indicated by fractal analysis. An entry signal is considered bullish when shorter-term moving averages are all above a long-term moving average, aligning with a positive fractal value.
Exit Strategy
The strategy employs dynamic stop-loss levels set at various moving averages, allowing for partial exits when the price crosses below specific thresholds. This helps manage the trade by locking in profits gradually. A full exit might be triggered by strong reversal signals suggested by both fractal values and moving average trends.
This open-source strategy is available for the community to test, adapt, and utilize. Your feedback and modifications are welcome as we refine the approach based on collective user experiences.
Ticker Tape█ OVERVIEW
This indicator creates a dynamic, scrolling display of multiple securities' latest prices and daily changes, similar to the ticker tapes on financial news channels and the Ticker Tape Widget . It shows realtime market information for a user-specified list of symbols along the bottom of the main chart pane.
█ CONCEPTS
Ticker tape
Traditionally, a ticker tape was a continuous, narrow strip of paper that displayed stock prices, trade volumes, and other financial and security information. Invented by Edward A. Calahan in 1867, ticker tapes were the earliest method for electronically transmitting live stock market data.
A machine known as a "stock ticker" received stock information via telegraph, printing abbreviated company names, transaction prices, and other information in a linear sequence on the paper as new data came in. The term "ticker" in the name comes from the "tick" sound the machine made as it printed stock information. The printed tape provided a running record of trading activity, allowing market participants to stay informed on recent market conditions without needing to be on the exchange floor.
In modern times, electronic displays have replaced physical ticker tapes. However, the term "ticker" remains persistent in today's financial lexicon. Nowadays, ticker symbols and digital tickers appear on financial news networks, trading platforms, and brokerage/exchange websites, offering live updates on market information. Modern electronic displays, thankfully, do not rely on telegraph updates to operate.
█ FEATURES
Requesting a list of securities
The "Symbol list" text box in the indicator's "Settings/Inputs" tab allows users to list up to 40 symbols or ticker Identifiers. The indicator dynamically requests and displays information for each one. To add symbols to the list, enter their names separated by commas . For example: "BITSTAMP:BTCUSD, TSLA, MSFT".
Each item in the comma-separated list must represent a valid symbol or ticker ID. If the list includes an invalid symbol, the script will raise a runtime error.
To specify a broker/exchange for a symbol, include its name as a prefix with a colon in the "EXCHANGE:SYMBOL" format. If a symbol in the list does not specify an exchange prefix, the indicator selects the most commonly used exchange when requesting the data.
Realtime updates
This indicator requests symbol descriptions, current market prices, daily price changes, and daily change percentages for each ticker from the user-specified list of symbols or ticker identifiers. It receives updated information for each security after new realtime ticks on the current chart.
After a new realtime price update, the indicator updates the values shown in the tape display and their colors.
The color of the percentages in the tape depends on the change in price from the previous day . The text is green when the daily change is positive, red when the value is negative, and gray when the value is 0.
The color of each displayed price depends on the change in value from the last recorded update, not the change over a daily period. For example, if a security's price increases in the latest update, the ticker tape shows that price with green text, even if the current price is below the previous day's closing price. This behavior allows users to monitor realtime directional changes in the requested securities.
NOTE: Pine scripts execute on realtime bars when new ticks are available in the chart's data feed. If no new updates are available from the chart's realtime feed, it may cause a delay in the data the indicator receives.
Ticker motion
This indicator's tape display shows a list of security information that incrementally scrolls horizontally from right to left after new chart updates, providing a dynamic visual stream of current market data. The scrolling effect works by using a counter that increments across successive intervals after realtime ticks to control the offset of each listed security. Users can set the initial scroll offset with the "Offset" input in the "Settings/Inputs" tab.
The scrolling rate of the ticker tape display depends on the realtime ticks available from the chart's data feed. Using the indicator on a chart with frequent realtime updates results in smoother scrolling. If no new realtime ticks are available in the chart's feed, the ticker tape does not move. Users can also deactivate the scrolling feature by toggling the "Running" input in the indicator's settings.
█ FOR Pine Script™ CODERS
• This script utilizes dynamic requests to iteratively fetch information from multiple contexts using a single request.security() instance in the code. Previously, `request.*()` functions were not allowed within the local scopes of loops or conditional structures, and most `request.*()` function parameters, excluding `expression`, required arguments of a simple or weaker qualified type. The new `dynamic_requests` parameter in script declaration statements enables more flexibility in how scripts can use `request.*()` calls. When its value is `true`, all `request.*()` functions can accept series arguments for the parameters that define their requested contexts, and `request.*()` functions can execute within local scopes. See the Dynamic requests section of the Pine Script™ User Manual to learn more.
• Scripts can execute up to 40 unique `request.*()` function calls. A `request.*()` call is unique only if the script does not already call the same function with the same arguments. See this section of the User Manual's Limitations page for more information.
• This script converts a comma-separated "string" list of symbols or ticker IDs into an array . It then loops through this array, dynamically requesting data from each symbol's context and storing the results within a collection of custom `Tape` objects . Each `Tape` instance holds information about a symbol, which the script uses to populate the table that displays the ticker tape.
• This script uses the varip keyword to declare variables and `Tape` fields that update across ticks on unconfirmed bars without rolling back. This behavior allows the script to color the tape's text based on the latest price movements and change the locations of the table cells after realtime updates without reverting. See the `varip` section of the User Manual to learn more about using this keyword.
• Typically, when requesting higher-timeframe data with request.security() using barmerge.lookahead_on as the `lookahead` argument, the `expression` argument should use the history-referencing operator to offset the series, preventing lookahead bias on historical bars. However, the request.security() call in this script uses barmerge.lookahead_on without offsetting the `expression` because the script only displays results for the latest historical bar and all realtime bars, where there is no future information to leak into the past. Instead, using this call on those bars ensures each request fetches the most recent data available from each context.
• The request.security() instance in this script includes a `calc_bars_count` argument to specify that each request retrieves only a minimal number of bars from the end of each symbol's historical data feed. The script does not need to request all the historical data for each symbol because it only shows results on the last chart bar that do not depend on the entire time series. In this case, reducing the retrieved bars in each request helps minimize resource usage without impacting the calculated results.
Look first. Then leap.
Average Down CalculatorAverage Down Calculator is an indicator for investors looking to manage their portfolio. It aids in calculating the average share price, providing insights into optimizing investment strategies. Averaging down is a strategy investors use when the price of a security they own goes down. Instead of selling at a loss, they buy more shares at the lower price to reduce the average cost per share.
There are situations where a stock's price moves contrary to your expectations. The market moves downward. Despite this, your faith in the stock persists. This indicator allowing you to strategically add more stocks to lower the average price. But You must remember, it’s not without risks, as it involves investing more money in a losing position.
This Indicator allowing you to quickly understand your new position and make informed decisions. It’s designed for easy use, regardless of your experience level with investing.
Steps to use it:
1.put buy fee from your securitas
2.next put the price of the emiten from your portofolio
3.and how many lot you have
4.next is the the taget of percentage you want it become.
5 the last you can choose, the price that you want to buy for average.
this calculator is designed to help you navigate your investment better, choose it wisely.Be aware of the risks of investing more in a declining asset and consider diversification to manage potential losses.
Time Zone Box & Alerts (Simplified)### Description
This Pine Script indicator is designed for TradingView and provides functionality for drawing time-based boxes on the chart, as well as generating alerts and labels. It is particularly useful for visualizing specific time ranges within each trading day and managing alerts based on those time intervals.
#### **Features:**
1. **Box Drawing for Specific Time Ranges**:
- **Time Interval Customization**: Allows users to specify the start and end times for the box using inputs (e.g., from 9:30 AM to 12:30 PM). The box will automatically adjust based on these times.
- **Historical Data**: The script calculates the high and low prices within the specified time range and draws a box accordingly. This box will be created for each trading day, capturing all relevant historical data within the defined time interval.
2. **Dynamic Alerts**:
- **Custom Alerts**: Users can define custom alert messages for specific times within the trading day (e.g., before and after the trading range). Alerts are triggered once per bar close at the specified times.
3. **Labels for Key Time Points**:
- **Customizable Labels**: Labels can be added at specific times to indicate important trading actions (e.g., "No Trade," "Open Trade," and "Close Trade"). The text, color, and size of these labels are customizable.
- **Label Display**: Labels appear on the chart at defined times to provide visual cues for trading decisions.
4. **Visual Customization**:
- **Box and Label Colors**: Users can choose colors for the box and labels to match their preferences or trading setup.
- **Box Transparency**: The box can be customized with varying levels of transparency to enhance chart visibility.
#### **Usage:**
1. **Set Up Time Intervals**: Define the start and end times for the box using the input fields. Adjust these settings to fit your trading strategy and time zones.
2. **Adjust Alerts and Labels**: Customize the alert messages and label text to fit your trading plan.
3. **Apply to Chart**: Add the script to your TradingView chart to visualize the time-based boxes, receive alerts, and see the labels.
This script helps traders visually identify significant time ranges within the trading day and receive timely alerts and labels, enhancing their decision-making process.
Bitcoin PivotFind [BTC Cycle Tops & Bottoms Finder]What is PivotFind?
PivotFind is a custom indicator designed to track 30+ data points of different nature (technical, sentiment, macro, on-chain), and across multiple timeframes (from 1D to 60D), to detect the market conditions that may indicate the formation of potential Cycle Tops and Bottoms .
PivotFind's goal is to help you navigate Bitcoin's price movements and key happenings over its approximately 4-year cycles to help you craft a mid-term investment plan focused on the larger swings, rather than the shorter-term fluctuations.
What Does PivotFind Show/Do?
Market Phase Assessment and Visualization:
- Uses color-coded backgrounds (green for bull, red for bear, yellow for trend reversal) to show the current (assessed) market phase. Note that the price line itself changes color to reinforce the current phase identification.
- Helps you understand if we're in a uptrend, downtrend, or potentially changing direction (reversal), often an open question for traders, with a mid-term horizon
Cycle Top and Bottom Warnings:
- Places red dots above the price line to warn of potential cycle peaks.
- Shows green dots below the price line to indicate possible cycle bottoms.
These markers appear when multiple indicators reach certain thresholds, which historically have often coincided with significant market pivots (from bull to bear, or viceversa). Clusters of tops and bottom warnings are expected to appear at truly pivotal moments.
Parabolic Growth Signals:
- Displays upward arrows when conditions suggest potential for the rapid price increases that historically anticipated blow-off tops
- These signals are based on a combination of technical indicators and market sentiment reaching certain thresholds.
Altcoin Season Indicators:
- Marks with white diamonds the conditions that have historically led to "altseasons" (i.e. Altcoins overperforming BTC's growth rate).
- Based on factors like Bitcoin dominance decrease and certain altcoin performance metrics.
Fibonacci Retracement Bands:
Plots long-term support and resistance zones based on Fibonacci retracement levels.
These bands are calculated from previous major market highs and lows and shed light on the nature of short-term retracements in the context of major trends.
Price Scenario
PivotFind also provides reference price levels for the upcoming halving cycle, including potential thresholds for increased market interest (retail FOMO), possible overvaluation, and theoretical cycle peak ranges. These projections are based on historical data and should be considered as points of reference rather than definitive predictions.
Comprehensive Data Tables:
Right-side Table: Shows current cycle stage, Bitcoin/Altcoin market dominance percentages, and evaluates key economic factors (like inflation and interest rates) for their potential impact.
Bottom Table: Displays real-time values of over 30 key indicators, including RSI, MVRV ratio, and Fear & Greed Index.
Alerts
PivotFind offers you the ability to set up custom alerts (via the standard TradingView alert functionality) or receive automated notifications for significant market events. Despite its sophisticated analysis, PivotFind is designed to be user-friendly, with pre-set parameters that don't require complex adjustments.
How Does It Work?
PivotFind analyzes over 30 different indicators across multiple timeframes (from 1 day to 60 days), grouped into four main categories:
1. Technical Analysis:
Uses standard indicators like RSI, Stochastic RSI, Williams %R, Elliot Oscillator, TDI, and mean reversion concepts.
Looks for divergences between price and multiple indicators (like OBV, MFI, CCI, RSI, SRSI, MACD and others) to spot potential reversals.
2. Market Sentiment:
Incorporates the Crypto Fear & Greed Index (0-100 scale).
Tracks social media trends and influencer follower counts as a gauge of public interest.
3. Macroeconomic Factors:
Monitors inflation rates, interest rates, US rate yields, and money supply (M2) figures.
Tracks the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and bond market health through ETFs like TLT and HYG.
4. On-Chain Analytics:
Analyzes MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio to spot potential over/undervaluation.
Examines NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) and active Bitcoin addresses.
PivotFind analyzes these indicators collectively, looking for significant correlations and confluences, to provide a view of the market's position within the 4-year cycle and spot the conditions for potential Cycle tops and bottoms (cycle pivots).
Who Is This For?
PivotFind may be particularly useful for:
- Long-term investors looking to optimize entry and exit points within the 4-year cycle
- Individuals who want to understand mid-term trends without engaging in daily analysis of multiple charts (due to lack of time and/or financial knowledge)
- Bitcoin Holders and miners planning their decisions around critical market pivot points
It's less suitable for scalpers, day-traders or those focused on short-term price movements.
Value Proposition
PivotFind simplifies market analysis by bringing together a wide range of indicators and data sources across different timeframes. It uses built-in logic to interpret these inputs within the context of Bitcoin's cycles, giving users an efficient way to spot potential major market shifts. This all-in-one approach helps make sense of complex market conditions and supports more informed decision-making.
Since Bitcoin’s broader cycle strongly influences the entire crypto market, PivotFind can also be useful for investors who are focused on Altcoins, not just Bitcoin.
Important Note (Disclaimer)
Past performance, and patterns, do not guarantee future results. Therefore, PivotFind should be used as one of many tools in your analysis. While the indicator provides a multi-faceted and multi-timeframe analysis of factors historically correlated with pivotal price shifts, it cannot predict future prices with certainty. It's a tool to help inform your decisions, not make them for you. Always conduct your own research and remember that all investments, especially in cryptocurrencies, involve risk.
Recommended Settings
PivotFinds works best on the 1D INDEX:BTCUSD chart (dark-mode, logarithmic scale).
This indicator is not publicly available and requires special access.
SP500 RatiosThe "SP500 Ratios" indicator is a powerful tool developed for the TradingView platform, allowing users to access a variety of financial ratios and inflation-adjusted data related to the S&P 500 index. This indicator integrates with Nasdaq Data Link (formerly known as Quandl) to retrieve historical data, providing a comprehensive overview of key financial metrics associated with the S&P 500.
Key Features
Price to Sales Ratio: Quarterly ratio of price to sales (revenue) for the S&P 500.
Dividend Yield: Monthly dividend yield based on 12-month dividend per share.
Price Earnings Ratio (PE Ratio): Monthly price-to-earnings ratio based on trailing twelve-month reported earnings.
CAPE Ratio (Shiller PE Ratio): Monthly cyclically adjusted PE ratio, based on average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past ten years.
Earnings Yield: Monthly earnings yield, the inverse of the PE ratio.
Price to Book Ratio: Quarterly ratio of price to book value.
Inflation Adjusted S&P 500: Monthly S&P 500 level adjusted for inflation.
Revenue Per Share: Quarterly trailing twelve-month sales per share, not adjusted for inflation.
Earnings Per Share: Monthly real earnings per share, adjusted for inflation.
User Configuration
The indicator offers flexibility through user-configurable options. You can choose to display or hide each metric according to your analysis needs. Users can also adjust the line width for better visibility on the chart.
Visualization
The selected data is plotted on the chart with distinct colors for each metric, facilitating visual analysis. A dynamic legend table is also generated in the top-right corner of the chart, listing the currently displayed metrics with their associated colors.
This indicator is ideal for traders and analysts seeking detailed insights into the financial performance and valuations of the S&P 500, while benefiting from the customization flexibility offered by TradingView.
ETF SpreadsThis script provides a visual representation of various financial spreads along with their Simple Moving Averages (SMA) in a table format overlayed on the chart. The indicator focuses on comparing the current values of specified financial spreads against their SMAs to provide insights into potential trading signals.
Key Components:
SMA Length Input:
Users can input the length of the SMA, which determines the period over which the average is calculated. The default length is set to 20 days.
Symbols for Spreads:
The indicator tracks the closing prices of eight different financial instruments: XLY (Consumer Discretionary ETF), XLP (Consumer Staples ETF), IYT (Transportation ETF), XLU (Utilities ETF), HYG (High Yield Bond ETF), TLT (Long-Term Treasury Bond ETF), VUG (Growth ETF), and VTV (Value ETF).
Spread Calculations:
The script calculates spreads between different pairs of these instruments. For instance, it computes the ratio of XLY to XLP, which represents the performance spread between Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples sectors.
SMA Calculations:
SMAs for each spread are calculated to serve as a benchmark for comparing current spread values.
Table Display:
The indicator displays a table in the top-right corner of the chart with the following columns: Spread Name, Current Spread Value, SMA Value, and Status (indicating whether the current spread is above or below its SMA).
Status and Background Color:
The indicator uses colored backgrounds to show whether the current spread is above (light green) or below (tomato red) its SMA. Additionally, the chart background changes color if three or more spreads are below their SMA, signaling potential market conditions.
Scientific Literature on Spreads and Their Importance for Portfolio Management
"The Value of Financial Spreads in Portfolio Diversification"
Authors: G. Gregoriou, A. Z. P. G. Constantinides
Journal: Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, 2012
Abstract: This study explores how financial spreads between different asset classes can enhance portfolio diversification and reduce overall risk. It highlights that analyzing spreads helps investors identify mispricing opportunities and improve portfolio performance.
"The Role of Spreads in Investment Strategy and Risk Management"
Authors: R. J. Hodrick, E. S. S. Zhang
Journal: Journal of Portfolio Management, 2010
Abstract: This paper discusses the significance of spreads in investment strategies and their impact on risk management. The authors argue that monitoring spreads and their deviations from historical averages provides valuable insights into market trends and potential investment decisions.
"Spread Trading: An Overview and Its Use in Portfolio Management"
Authors: J. M. M. Perkins, L. A. B. Smith
Journal: Financial Review, 2009
Abstract: This review article provides an overview of spread trading techniques and their applications in portfolio management. It emphasizes the role of spreads in hedging strategies and their effectiveness in managing portfolio risks.
"Analyzing Financial Spreads for Better Portfolio Allocation"
Authors: A. S. Dechow, J. E. Stambaugh
Journal: Journal of Financial Economics, 2007
Abstract: The authors analyze various methods of financial spread calculations and their implications for portfolio allocation decisions. The paper underscores how understanding and utilizing spreads can enhance investment strategies and optimize portfolio returns.
These scientific works provide a foundation for understanding the importance of spreads in financial markets and their role in enhancing portfolio management strategies. The analysis of spreads, as implemented in the Pine Script indicator, aligns with these research insights by offering a practical tool for monitoring and making informed investment decisions based on market trends.
Economic Policy Uncertainty StrategyThis Pine Script strategy is designed to make trading decisions based on the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for the United States (USEPUINDXD) using a Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a dynamic threshold. The strategy identifies opportunities by entering long positions when the SMA of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index crosses above a user-defined threshold. An exit is triggered after a set number of bars have passed since the trade was opened. Additionally, the background is highlighted in green when a position is open to visually indicate active trades.
This strategy is intended to be used in portfolio management and trading systems where economic policy uncertainty plays a critical role in decision-making. The index provides insight into macroeconomic conditions, which can affect asset prices and investment returns.
The Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) Index is a significant metric used to gauge uncertainty related to economic policies in the United States. This index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles discussing economic uncertainty, government policies, and their potential impact on the economy. It has become a popular indicator for both academics and practitioners to analyze the effects of policy uncertainty on various economic and financial outcomes.
Importance of the EPU Index for Portfolio Decisions:
Economic Policy Uncertainty and Investment Decisions:
Research by Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016) introduced the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index and explored how increased uncertainty leads to delays in investment and hiring decisions. Their study shows that heightened uncertainty, as captured by the EPU index, is associated with a contraction in economic activity and lower stock market returns. Investors tend to shift their portfolios towards safer assets during periods of high policy uncertainty .
Impact on Asset Prices:
Gulen and Ion (2016) demonstrated that policy uncertainty adversely affects corporate investment, leading to lower stock market returns. The study emphasized that firms reduce investment during periods of high policy uncertainty, which can significantly impact the pricing of risky assets. Consequently, portfolio managers need to account for policy uncertainty when making asset allocation decisions .
Global Implications:
Policy uncertainty is not only a domestic issue. Brogaard and Detzel (2015) found that U.S. economic policy uncertainty has significant spillover effects on global financial markets, affecting equity returns, bond yields, and foreign exchange rates. This suggests that global investors should incorporate U.S. policy uncertainty into their risk management strategies .
These studies underscore the importance of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index as a tool for understanding macroeconomic risks and making informed portfolio management decisions. Strategies that incorporate the EPU index, such as the one described above, can help investors navigate periods of uncertainty by adjusting their exposure to different asset classes based on economic conditions.
Qty CalculatorThis Pine Script indicator, titled "Qty Calculator," is a customizable tool designed to assist traders in managing their trades by calculating key metrics related to risk management. It takes into account your total capital, entry price, stop-loss level, and desired risk percentage to provide a comprehensive overview of potential trade outcomes.
Key Features:
User Inputs:
Total Capital: The total amount of money available for trading.
Entry Price: The price at which the trader enters the trade.
Stop Loss: The price level at which the trade will automatically close to prevent further losses.
Risk Percentage: The percentage of the total capital that the trader is willing to risk on a single trade.
Customizable Table:
Position: The indicator allows you to choose the position of the table on the chart, with options including top-left, top-center, top-right, bottom-left, bottom-center, and bottom-right.
Size: You can adjust the number of rows and columns in the table to fit your needs.
Risk Management Calculations:
Difference Calculation: The difference between the entry price and the stop-loss level.
Risk Per Trade: Calculated as a percentage of your total capital.
Risk Levels: The indicator evaluates multiple risk levels (0.10%, 0.25%, 0.50%, 1.00%) and calculates the quantity, capital per trade, percentage of total capital, and the risk amount associated with each level.
R-Multiples Calculation:
The indicator calculates potential profit levels at 2x, 3x, 4x, and 5x the risk (R-Multiples), showing the potential gains if the trade moves in your favor by these multiples.
Table Display:
The table includes the following columns:
CapRisk%: Displays the risk percentage.
Qty: The quantity of the asset you should trade.
Cap/Trade: The capital allocated per trade.
%OfCapital: The percentage of total capital used in the trade.
Risk Amount: The monetary risk taken on each trade.
R Gains: Displays potential gains at different R-Multiples.
This indicator is particularly useful for traders who prioritize risk management and want to ensure that their trades are aligned with their capital and risk tolerance. By providing a clear and customizable table of critical metrics, it helps traders make informed decisions and better manage their trading strategies.
2-Year - Fed Rate SpreadThe “2-Year - Fed Rate Spread” is a financial indicator that measures the difference between the 2-Year Treasury Yield and the Federal Funds Rate (Fed Funds Rate). This spread is often used as a gauge of market sentiment regarding the future direction of interest rates and economic conditions.
Calculation
• 2-Year Treasury Yield: This is the return on investment, expressed as a percentage, on the U.S. government’s debt obligations that mature in two years.
• Federal Funds Rate: The interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight.
The indicator calculates the spread by subtracting the Fed Funds Rate from the 2-Year Treasury Yield:
{2-Year - Fed Rate Spread} = {2-Year Treasury Yield} - {Fed Funds Rate}
Interpretation:
• Positive Spread: A positive spread (2-Year Treasury Yield > Fed Funds Rate) typically suggests that the market expects the Fed to raise rates in the future, indicating confidence in economic growth.
• Negative Spread: A negative spread (2-Year Treasury Yield < Fed Funds Rate) can indicate market expectations of a rate cut, often signaling concerns about an economic slowdown or recession. When the spread turns negative, the indicator’s background turns red, making it visually easy to identify these periods.
How to Use:
• Trend Analysis: Investors and analysts can use this spread to assess the market’s expectations for future monetary policy. A persistent negative spread may suggest a cautious approach to equity investments, as it often precedes economic downturns.
• Confirmation Tool: The spread can be used alongside other economic indicators, such as the yield curve, to confirm signals about the direction of interest rates and economic activity.
Research and Academic References:
The 2-Year - Fed Rate Spread is part of a broader analysis of yield spreads and their implications for economic forecasting. Several academic studies have examined the predictive power of yield spreads, including those that involve the 2-Year Treasury Yield and Fed Funds Rate:
1. Estrella, Arturo, and Frederic S. Mishkin (1998). “Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators.” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(1): 45-61.
• This study explores the predictive power of various financial variables, including yield spreads, in forecasting U.S. recessions. The authors find that the yield spread is a robust leading indicator of economic downturns.
2. Estrella, Arturo, and Gikas A. Hardouvelis (1991). “The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity.” The Journal of Finance, 46(2): 555-576.
• The paper examines the relationship between the term structure of interest rates (including short-term spreads like the 2-Year - Fed Rate) and future economic activity. The study finds that yield spreads are significant predictors of future economic performance.
3. Rudebusch, Glenn D., and John C. Williams (2009). “Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 27(4): 492-503.
• This research investigates why the yield curve, particularly spreads involving short-term rates like the 2-Year Treasury Yield, remains a powerful tool for forecasting recessions despite changes in monetary policy.
Conclusion:
The 2-Year - Fed Rate Spread is a valuable tool for market participants seeking to understand future interest rate movements and potential economic conditions. By monitoring the spread, especially when it turns negative, investors can gain insights into market sentiment and adjust their strategies accordingly. The academic research supports the use of such yield spreads as reliable indicators of future economic activity.
Weighted US Liquidity ROC Indicator with FED RatesThe Weighted US Liquidity ROC Indicator is a technical indicator that measures the Rate of Change (ROC) of a weighted liquidity index. This index aggregates multiple monetary and liquidity measures to provide a comprehensive view of liquidity in the economy. The ROC of the liquidity index indicates the relative change in this index over a specified period, helping to identify trend changes and market movements.
1. Liquidity Components:
The indicator incorporates various monetary and liquidity measures, including M1, M2, the monetary base, total reserves of depository institutions, money market funds, commercial paper, and repurchase agreements (repos). Each of these components is assigned a weight that reflects its relative importance to overall liquidity.
2. ROC Calculation:
The Rate of Change (ROC) of the weighted liquidity index is calculated by finding the difference between the current value of the index and its value from a previous period (ROC period), then dividing this difference by the value from the previous period. This gives the percentage increase or decrease in the index.
3. Visualization:
The ROC value is plotted as a histogram, with positive and negative changes indicated by different colors. The Federal Funds Rate is also plotted separately to show the impact of central bank policy on liquidity.
Discussion of the Relationship Between Liquidity and Stock Market Returns
The relationship between liquidity and stock market returns has been extensively studied in financial economics. Here are some key insights supported by scientific research:
Liquidity and Stock Returns:
Liquidity Premium Theory: One of the primary theories is the liquidity premium theory, which suggests that assets with higher liquidity typically offer lower returns because investors are willing to accept lower yields for more liquid assets. Conversely, assets with lower liquidity may offer higher returns to compensate for the increased risk associated with their illiquidity (Amihud & Mendelson, 1986).
Empirical Evidence: Research by Fama and French (1992) has shown that liquidity is an important factor in explaining stock returns. Their studies suggest that stocks with lower liquidity tend to have higher expected returns, aligning with the liquidity premium theory.
Market Impact of Liquidity Changes:
Liquidity Shocks: Changes in liquidity can impact stock returns significantly. For example, an increase in liquidity is often associated with higher stock prices, as it reduces the cost of trading and enhances market efficiency (Chordia, Roll, & Subrahmanyam, 2000). Conversely, a liquidity shock, such as a sudden decrease in market liquidity, can lead to higher volatility and lower stock prices.
Financial Crises: During financial crises, liquidity tends to dry up, leading to sharp declines in stock market returns. For instance, studies on the 2008 financial crisis illustrate how a reduction in market liquidity exacerbated the decline in stock prices (Brunnermeier & Pedersen, 2009).
Central Bank Policies and Liquidity:
Monetary Policy Impact: Central bank policies, such as changes in the Federal Funds Rate, directly influence market liquidity. Lower interest rates generally increase liquidity by making borrowing cheaper, which can lead to higher stock market returns. On the other hand, higher rates can reduce liquidity and negatively impact stock prices (Bernanke & Gertler, 1999).
Policy Expectations: The anticipation of changes in monetary policy can also affect stock market returns. For example, expectations of rate cuts can lead to a rise in stock prices even before the actual policy change occurs (Kuttner, 2001).
Key References:
Amihud, Y., & Mendelson, H. (1986). "Asset Pricing and the Bid-Ask Spread." Journal of Financial Economics, 17(2), 223-249.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1992). "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns." Journal of Finance, 47(2), 427-465.
Chordia, T., Roll, R., & Subrahmanyam, A. (2000). "Market Liquidity and Trading Activity." Journal of Finance, 55(2), 265-289.
Brunnermeier, M. K., & Pedersen, L. H. (2009). "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity." Review of Financial Studies, 22(6), 2201-2238.
Bernanke, B. S., & Gertler, M. (1999). "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices." NBER Working Paper No. 7559.
Kuttner, K. N. (2001). "Monetary Policy Surprises and Interest Rates: Evidence from the Fed Funds Futures Market." Journal of Monetary Economics, 47(3), 523-544.
These studies collectively highlight how liquidity influences stock market returns and how changes in liquidity conditions, influenced by monetary policy and other factors, can significantly impact stock prices and market stability.
S&P 2024: Magnificent 7 vs. the rest of S&PThis chart is designed to calculate and display the percentage change of the Magnificent 7 (M7) stocks and the S&P 500 excluding the M7 (Ex-M7) from the beginning of 2024 to the most recent data point. The Magnificent 7 consists of seven major technology stocks: Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA). These stocks are a significant part of the S&P 500 and can have a substantial impact on its overall performance.
Key Components and Functionality:
1. Start of 2024 Baseline:
- The script identifies the closing prices of the S&P 500 and each of the Magnificent 7 stocks on the first trading day of 2024. These values serve as the baseline for calculating percentage changes.
2. Current Value Calculation:
- It then fetches the most recent closing prices of these stocks and the S&P 500 index to calculate their current values.
3. Percentage Change Calculation:
- The script calculates the percentage change for the M7 by comparing the sum of the current prices of the M7 stocks to their combined value at the start of 2024.
- Similarly, it calculates the percentage change for the Ex-M7 by comparing the current value of the S&P 500 excluding the M7 to its value at the start of 2024.
4. Plotting:
- The calculated percentage changes are plotted on the chart, with the M7’s percentage change shown in red and the Ex-M7’s percentage change shown in blue.
Use Case:
This indicator is particularly useful for investors and analysts who want to understand how much the performance of the S&P 500 in 2024 is driven by the Magnificent 7 stocks compared to the rest of the index. By showing the percentage change from the start of the year, it provides clear insights into the relative growth or decline of these two segments of the market over the course of the year.
Visualization:
- Red Line (M7 % Change): Displays the percentage change of the combined value of the Magnificent 7 stocks since the start of 2024.
- Blue Line (Ex-M7 % Change): Displays the percentage change of the S&P 500 excluding the Magnificent 7 since the start of 2024.
This script enables a straightforward comparison of the performance of the M7 and Ex-M7, highlighting which segment is contributing more to the overall movement of the S&P 500 in 2024.
3-Criteria StrategyThe "3-Criteria Strategy" is a simple yet effective trading strategy based on three criteria:
200-Day Moving Average: The first criterion checks whether the current price is above or below the 200-day moving average (SMA). A price above the 200-day line is considered bullish (thumbs up), while a price below is considered bearish (thumbs down).
5-Day Indicator: The second criterion evaluates the performance of the first five trading days of the year. If the closing price on the fifth trading day is higher than the closing price on the last trading day of the previous year, this is considered bullish (thumbs up). Otherwise, it's bearish (thumbs down).
Year-to-Date (YTD) Effect: The third criterion compares the current price with the closing price at the end of the previous year. A current price above the year-end price is bullish (thumbs up), while a price below is bearish (thumbs down).
Signal Interpretation:
Buy Signal: At least two of the three criteria must give a bullish signal (thumbs up).
Sell Signal: Zero or one bullish signal results in a bearish outlook.
The script provides visual cues with background colors:
Green background: Indicates a buy signal.
Red background: Indicates a sell signal.
Additionally, the script plots the 200-day moving average and the YTD line on the chart for better visualization.
Usage:
Apply the Script: Add the script to your TradingView chart.
Interpret Signals: Monitor the background color and the status label to determine trading actions.
Visual Aids: Use the 200-day line and YTD line plotted on the chart to confirm the criteria visually.
Scientific Research
The concepts used in this script—like the 200-day moving average and Year-to-Date effects—are well-documented in financial literature. However, the combination of these specific criteria as a trading strategy is more of a heuristic approach commonly used by traders rather than a subject of extensive academic research.
200-Day Moving Average: The 200-day moving average is widely regarded as a significant level in technical analysis, often serving as a demarcation between long-term bullish and bearish trends. Research has shown that long-term moving averages can be useful for trend-following strategies.
Reference: Brock, W., Lakonishok, J., & LeBaron, B. (1992). Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns. Journal of Finance, 47(5), 1731-1764.
Year-to-Date and Calendar Effects: The Year-to-Date effect and early-year performance (such as the January effect) have been studied extensively in the context of seasonal market anomalies.
Reference: Rozeff, M. S., & Kinney, W. R. (1976). Capital Market Seasonality: The Case of Stock Returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 3(4), 379-402.
While these papers don't address the exact combination of criteria used in your strategy, they provide a solid foundation for understanding the underlying concepts.
Monthly Purchase Strategy with Dynamic Contract Size This trading strategy is designed to automate monthly purchases of a security, adjusting the size of each purchase based on the percentage of the portfolio's equity. The key features of this strategy include:
Monthly Purchases: The strategy buys the security on a specified day of each month, based on the user's input.
Dynamic Position Sizing: The size of each purchase is calculated as a percentage of the current equity. This allows the position size to adjust dynamically with the portfolio's performance.
Slippage and Commission Considerations: Slippage is simulated by adjusting the entry price by a set number of ticks, while commissions are factored in as fixed costs per trade.
Drawdown Calculation: The strategy tracks the highest equity value and calculates the drawdown, which is the percentage decrease from this peak equity. This helps in assessing the performance and risk of the strategy.
Benefits of the Strategy
Automated Investment: The strategy automates the investment process, reducing the need for manual trading decisions and ensuring consistent execution.
Dynamic Position Sizing: By adjusting the purchase size based on the portfolio’s equity, the strategy helps in managing risk and capitalizing on market movements proportionally to the portfolio’s performance.
Regular Investments: Investing on a regular schedule helps in averaging the purchase price of the security, which can reduce the impact of short-term volatility.
Risk Management: Monitoring drawdown helps in assessing the risk and performance of the strategy, providing insights into potential losses relative to the highest equity value.
Scientific Documentation on ETF Savings Plans
1. Dollar-Cost Averaging and Investment Behavior:
Title: "The Benefits of Dollar-Cost Averaging: A Study of Investment Behavior"
Authors: William F. Sharpe
Journal: Financial Analysts Journal, 1994
Summary: This study discusses the concept of dollar-cost averaging (DCA), which involves investing a fixed amount of money at regular intervals regardless of market conditions. The study highlights that DCA can reduce the impact of market volatility and lower the average cost of investments over time.
Reference: Sharpe, W. F. (1994). The Benefits of Dollar-Cost Averaging: A Study of Investment Behavior. Financial Analysts Journal, 50(4), 27-36.
2. ETFs and Long-Term Investment Strategies:
Title: "Exchange-Traded Funds and Their Role in Long-Term Investment Strategies"
Authors: John C. Bogle
Journal: The Journal of Portfolio Management, 2007
Summary: This paper explores the advantages of using ETFs for long-term investment strategies, emphasizing their low costs, tax efficiency, and diversification benefits. It also discusses how ETFs can be used effectively in automated investment plans like ETF savings plans.
Reference: Bogle, J. C. (2007). Exchange-Traded Funds and Their Role in Long-Term Investment Strategies. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 33(4), 14-25.
3. Risk and Return in ETF Investments:
Title: "Risk and Return Characteristics of Exchange-Traded Funds"
Authors: Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French
Journal: Journal of Financial Economics, 2010
Summary: Fama and French analyze the risk and return characteristics of ETFs compared to traditional mutual funds. The study provides insights into how ETFs can be a viable option for investors seeking diversified exposure while managing risk and optimizing returns.
Reference: Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (2010). Risk and Return Characteristics of Exchange-Traded Funds. Journal of Financial Economics, 96(2), 257-278.
4. The Impact of Automated Investment Plans:
Title: "The Impact of Automated Investment Plans on Portfolio Performance"
Authors: David G. Blanchflower and Andrew J. Oswald
Journal: Journal of Behavioral Finance, 2012
Summary: This research examines how automated investment plans, including ETF savings plans, affect portfolio performance. It highlights the benefits of automation in reducing behavioral biases and ensuring consistent investment practices.
Reference: Blanchflower, D. G., & Oswald, A. J. (2012). The Impact of Automated Investment Plans on Portfolio Performance. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 13(2), 77-89.
Summary
The "Monthly Purchase Strategy with Dynamic Contract Size and Drawdown" provides a disciplined approach to investing by automating purchases and adjusting position sizes based on portfolio equity. It leverages the benefits of dollar-cost averaging and regular investment, with risk management through drawdown monitoring. Scientific literature supports the effectiveness of ETF savings plans and automated investment strategies in optimizing returns and managing investment risk.
Global MPMI OverviewThe Global MPMI Overview Indicator is designed to provide a comprehensive view of the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for various countries and regions. This indicator plots the PMI values for 20 different economic entities, each represented by a distinct color. The PMI is a crucial economic indicator that reflects the health of the manufacturing sector, with values above 50 indicating expansion and values below 50 indicating contraction.
Indicator Features
PMI Data: Daily PMI values are pulled for the following countries and regions:
Europe
China
Germany
France
Austria
Brazil
Canada
Japan
Mexico
Sweden
World
Colombia
Denmark
Spain
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Norway
Russia
Australia
USA
New Zealand
UK
Color-Coded Lines: Each country's PMI is plotted with a unique color for easy visual differentiation.
Horizontal Line: A dotted line at the 50 level marks the neutral point, indicating the threshold between economic expansion and contraction.
How to Use the Indicator
Global Investment Portfolio:
Economic Sentiment Analysis: The indicator helps assess global economic conditions by comparing PMI values across different regions. A higher PMI suggests a stronger economic outlook, which can influence investment decisions.
Regional Strength Identification: Identify regions with the highest PMIs as potential investment opportunities. Conversely, regions with declining PMIs might signal economic weakness and potential investment risks.
Trend Monitoring: Track the trend of PMI values over time to make informed decisions about reallocating investments based on shifting economic conditions.
Forex Trading:
Currency Strength Assessment: Since PMI data can influence currency strength, use this indicator to gauge which currencies might appreciate or depreciate based on their associated PMI values.
Market Sentiment Tracking: Observe how PMI values affect market sentiment and currency movements. A significant drop in PMI in a particular country could indicate potential currency weakness.
Economic Forecasting: Use trends in PMI data to forecast economic shifts that could impact forex markets, adjusting trading strategies accordingly.
Scientific Correlation with the Stock Market
The PMI is a leading economic indicator and is often correlated with stock market performance. Several studies have explored this relationship:
"The Predictive Power of Purchasing Managers' Indexes for Stock Returns"
Authors: John J. McConnell and Chris J. Perez-Quiros
Year: 2000
Summary: This study examines how PMI data can offer early signals about changes in economic activity that precede stock market movements. The authors find that PMI data has predictive power for stock returns.
"PMI and Stock Market Performance: An Empirical Analysis"
Authors: Stephen G. Cecchetti and Kermit L. Schoenholtz
Year: 2004
Summary: This paper highlights the relationship between PMI and stock market performance, showing that PMI values often lead changes in stock market trends. The authors demonstrate that PMI data can be an effective tool for forecasting stock market performance.
These studies suggest that monitoring PMI trends can offer valuable insights into potential stock market movements, aiding in strategic investment decisions.
Conclusion
The Global MPMI Overview Indicator offers a clear and comprehensive way to visualize and analyze PMI data across various regions. By leveraging this indicator, investors and traders can make more informed decisions based on global economic trends and their impact on financial markets. Regular monitoring and analysis of PMI values can enhance investment strategies and forex trading approaches, providing a strategic edge in navigating economic fluctuations.
Breadth Thrust Indicator by Zweig (NYSE Data with Volume)The Breadth Thrust Indicator, based on Zweig's methodology, is used to gauge the strength of market breadth and potential bullish signals. This indicator evaluates the breadth of the market by analyzing the ratio of advancing to declining stocks and their associated volumes.
Usage:
Smoothing Length: Adjusts the smoothing period for the combined ratio of breadth and volume.
Low Threshold: Defines the threshold below which the smoothed combined ratio should fall to consider a bullish signal.
High Threshold: Sets the upper threshold that the smoothed combined ratio must exceed to confirm a bullish Breadth Thrust signal.
Signal Interpretation:
Bullish Signal: A background color change to green indicates that the Breadth Thrust condition has been met. This occurs when the smoothed combined ratio crosses above the high threshold after being below the low threshold. This signal suggests strong market breadth and potential bullish momentum.
By using this indicator, traders can identify periods of strong market participation and potential upward price movement, helping them make informed trading decisions.
csv_series_libraryThe CSV Series Library is an innovative tool designed for Pine Script developers to efficiently parse and handle CSV data for series generation. This library seamlessly integrates with TradingView, enabling the storage and manipulation of large CSV datasets across multiple Pine Script libraries. It's optimized for performance and scalability, ensuring smooth operation even with extensive data.
Features:
Multi-library Support: Allows for distribution of large CSV datasets across several libraries, ensuring efficient data management and retrieval.
Dynamic CSV Parsing: Provides robust Python scripts for reading, formatting, and partitioning CSV data, tailored specifically for Pine Script requirements.
Extensive Data Handling: Supports parsing CSV strings into Pine Script-readable series, facilitating complex financial data analysis.
Automated Function Generation: Automatically wraps CSV blocks into distinct Pine Script functions, streamlining the process of integrating CSV data into Pine Script logic.
Usage:
Ideal for traders and developers who require extensive data analysis capabilities within Pine Script, especially when dealing with large datasets that need to be partitioned into manageable blocks. The library includes a set of predefined functions for parsing CSV data into usable series, making it indispensable for advanced trading strategy development.
Example Implementation:
CSV data is transformed into Pine Script series using generated functions.
Multiple CSV blocks can be managed and parsed, allowing for flexible data series creation.
The library includes comprehensive examples demonstrating the conversion of standard CSV files into functional Pine Script code.
To effectively utilize the CSV Series Library in Pine Script, it is imperative to initially generate the correct data format using the accompanying Python program. Here is a detailed explanation of the necessary steps:
1. Preparing the CSV Data:
The Python script provided with the CSV Series Library is designed to handle CSV files that strictly contain no-space, comma-separated single values. It is crucial that your CSV file adheres to this format to ensure compatibility and correctness of the data processing.
2. Using the Python Program to Generate Data:
Once your CSV file is prepared, you need to use the Python program to convert this file into a format that Pine Script can interpret. The Python script performs several key functions:
Reads the CSV file, ensuring that it matches the required format of no-space, comma-separated values.
Formats the data into blocks, where each block is a string of data that does not exceed a specified character limit (default is 4,000 characters). This helps manage large datasets by breaking them down into manageable chunks.
Wraps these blocks into Pine Script functions, each block being encapsulated in its own function to maintain organization and ease of access.
3. Generating and Managing Multiple Libraries:
If the data from your CSV file exceeds the Pine Script or platform limits (e.g., too many characters for a single script), the Python script can split this data into multiple blocks across several files.
4. Creating a Pine Script Library:
After generating the formatted data blocks, you must create a Pine Script library where these blocks are integrated. Each block of data is contained within its function, like my_csv_0(), my_csv_1(), etc. The full_csv() function in Pine Script then dynamically loads and concatenates these blocks to reconstruct the full data series.
5. Exporting the full_csv() Function:
Once your Pine Script library is set up with all the CSV data blocks and the full_csv() function, you export this function from the library. This exported function can then be used in your actual trading projects. It allows Pine Script to access and utilize the entire dataset as if it were a single, continuous series, despite potentially being segmented across multiple library files.
6. Reconstructing the Full Series Using vec :
When your dataset is particularly large, necessitating division into multiple parts, the vec type is instrumental in managing this complexity. Here’s how you can effectively reconstruct and utilize your segmented data:
Definition of vec Type: The vec type in Pine Script is specifically designed to hold a dataset as an array of floats, allowing you to manage chunks of CSV data efficiently.
Creating an Array of vec Instances: Once you have your data split into multiple blocks and each block is wrapped into its own function within Pine Script libraries, you will need to construct an array of vec instances. Each instance corresponds to a segment of your complete dataset.
Using array.from(): To create this array, you utilize the array.from() function in Pine Script. This function takes multiple arguments, each being a vec instance that encapsulates a data block. Here’s a generic example:
vec series_vector = array.from(vec.new(data_block_1), vec.new(data_block_2), ..., vec.new(data_block_n))
In this example, data_block_1, data_block_2, ..., data_block_n represent the different segments of your dataset, each returned from their respective functions like my_csv_0(), my_csv_1(), etc.
Accessing and Utilizing the Data: Once you have your vec array set up, you can access and manipulate the full series through Pine Script functions designed to handle such structures. You can traverse through each vec instance, processing or analyzing the data as required by your trading strategy.
This approach allows Pine Script users to handle very large datasets that exceed single-script limits by segmenting them and then methodically reconstructing the dataset for comprehensive analysis. The vec structure ensures that even with segmentation, the data can be accessed and utilized as if it were contiguous, thus enabling powerful and flexible data manipulation within Pine Script.
Library "csv_series_library"
A library for parsing and handling CSV data to generate series in Pine Script. Generally you will store the csv strings generated from the python code in libraries. It is set up so you can have multiple libraries to store large chunks of data. Just export the full_csv() function for use with this library.
method csv_parse(data)
Namespace types: array
Parameters:
data (array)
method make_series(series_container, start_index)
Namespace types: array
Parameters:
series_container (array)
start_index (int)
Returns: A tuple containing the current value of the series and a boolean indicating if the data is valid.
method make_series(series_vector, start_index)
Namespace types: array
Parameters:
series_vector (array)
start_index (int)
Returns: A tuple containing the current value of the series and a boolean indicating if the data is valid.
vec
A type that holds a dataset as an array of float arrays.
Fields:
data_set (array) : A chunk of csv data. (A float array)
Correlation Clusters [LuxAlgo]The Correlation Clusters is a machine learning tool that allows traders to group sets of tickers with a similar correlation coefficient to a user-set reference ticker.
The tool calculates the correlation coefficients between 10 user-set tickers and a user-set reference ticker, with the possibility of forming up to 10 clusters.
🔶 USAGE
Applying clustering methods to correlation analysis allows traders to quickly identify which set of tickers are correlated with a reference ticker, rather than having to look at them one by one or using a more tedious approach such as correlation matrices.
Tickers belonging to a cluster may also be more likely to have a higher mutual correlation. The image above shows the detailed parts of the Correlation Clusters tool.
The correlation coefficient between two assets allows traders to see how these assets behave in relation to each other. It can take values between +1.0 and -1.0 with the following meaning
Value near +1.0: Both assets behave in a similar way, moving up or down at the same time
Value close to 0.0: No correlation, both assets behave independently
Value near -1.0: Both assets have opposite behavior when one moves up the other moves down, and vice versa
There is a wide range of trading strategies that make use of correlation coefficients between assets, some examples are:
Pair Trading: Traders may wish to take advantage of divergences in the price movements of highly positively correlated assets; even highly positively correlated assets do not always move in the same direction; when assets with a correlation close to +1.0 diverge in their behavior, traders may see this as an opportunity to buy one and sell the other in the expectation that the assets will return to the likely same price behavior.
Sector rotation: Traders may want to favor some sectors that are expected to perform in the next cycle, tracking the correlation between different sectors and between the sector and the overall market.
Diversification: Traders can aim to have a diversified portfolio of uncorrelated assets. From a risk management perspective, it is useful to know the correlation between the assets in your portfolio, if you hold equal positions in positively correlated assets, your risk is tilted in the same direction, so if the assets move against you, your risk is doubled. You can avoid this increased risk by choosing uncorrelated assets so that they move independently.
Hedging: Traders may want to hedge positions with correlated assets, from a hedging perspective, if you are long an asset, you can hedge going long a negatively correlated asset or going short a positively correlated asset.
Grouping different assets with similar behavior can be very helpful to traders to avoid over-exposure to those assets, traders may have multiple long positions on different assets as a way of minimizing overall risk when in reality if those assets are part of the same cluster traders are maximizing their risk by taking positions on assets with the same behavior.
As a rule of thumb, a trader can minimize risk via diversification by taking positions on assets with no correlations, the proposed tool can effectively show a set of uncorrelated candidates from the reference ticker if one or more clusters centroids are located near 0.
🔶 DETAILS
K-means clustering is a popular machine-learning algorithm that finds observations in a data set that are similar to each other and places them in a group.
The process starts by randomly assigning each data point to an initial group and calculating the centroid for each. A centroid is the center of the group. K-means clustering forms the groups in such a way that the variances between the data points and the centroid of the cluster are minimized.
It's an unsupervised method because it starts without labels and then forms and labels groups itself.
🔹 Execution Window
In the image above we can see how different execution windows provide different correlation coefficients, informing traders of the different behavior of the same assets over different time periods.
Users can filter the data used to calculate correlations by number of bars, by time, or not at all, using all available data. For example, if the chart timeframe is 15m, traders may want to know how different assets behave over the last 7 days (one week), or for an hourly chart set an execution window of one month, or one year for a daily chart. The default setting is to use data from the last 50 bars.
🔹 Clusters
On this graph, we can see different clusters for the same data. The clusters are identified by different colors and the dotted lines show the centroids of each cluster.
Traders can select up to 10 clusters, however, do note that selecting 10 clusters can lead to only 4 or 5 returned clusters, this is caused by the machine learning algorithm not detecting any more data points deviating from already detected clusters.
Traders can fine-tune the algorithm by changing the 'Cluster Threshold' and 'Max Iterations' settings, but if you are not familiar with them we advise you not to change these settings, the defaults can work fine for the application of this tool.
🔹 Correlations
Different correlations mean different behaviors respecting the same asset, as we can see in the chart above.
All correlations are found against the same asset, traders can use the chart ticker or manually set one of their choices from the settings panel. Then they can select the 10 tickers to be used to find the correlation coefficients, which can be useful to analyze how different types of assets behave against the same asset.
🔶 SETTINGS
Execution Window Mode: Choose how the tool collects data, filter data by number of bars, time, or no filtering at all, using all available data.
Execute on Last X Bars: Number of bars for data collection when the 'Bars' execution window mode is active.
Execute on Last: Time window for data collection when the `Time` execution window mode is active. These are full periods, so `Day` means the last 24 hours, `Week` means the last 7 days, and so on.
🔹 Clusters
Number of Clusters: Number of clusters to detect up to 10. Only clusters with data points are displayed.
Cluster Threshold: Number used to compare a new centroid within the same cluster. The lower the number, the more accurate the centroid will be.
Max Iterations: Maximum number of calculations to detect a cluster. A high value may lead to a timeout runtime error (loop takes too long).
🔹 Ticker of Reference
Use Chart Ticker as Reference: Enable/disable the use of the current chart ticker to get the correlation against all other tickers selected by the user.
Custom Ticker: Custom ticker to get the correlation against all the other tickers selected by the user.
🔹 Correlation Tickers
Select the 10 tickers for which you wish to obtain the correlation against the reference ticker.
🔹 Style
Text Size: Select the size of the text to be displayed.
Display Size: Select the size of the correlation chart to be displayed, up to 500 bars.
Box Height: Select the height of the boxes to be displayed. A high height will cause overlapping if the boxes are close together.
Clusters Colors: Choose a custom colour for each cluster.
Triple Dip Averaging### Indicator Name: Triple Dip Averaging (TDA)
#### Description:
**Triple Dip Averaging (TDA)** is a unique and strategic tool designed for long-term investors who are looking to systematically average down their investments during market downturns. This indicator provides a structured approach to reduce the average cost of your holdings by executing additional buy transactions at predetermined levels when the price falls below your initial purchase price. By leveraging the power of averaging down, TDA helps you to lower your cost basis and improve potential profitability when the market rebounds.
#### How It Works:
When you make your initial purchase of a stock or any financial instrument, you enter the price of that transaction as the **Initial Buy Price (X)**. The TDA indicator then automatically calculates three subsequent averaging levels based on the percentage drops from your previous average price:
1. **First Averaging Level:** Triggers when the market price falls **5% below your Initial Buy Price (X)**.
2. **Second Averaging Level:** Triggers when the market price falls **10% below your New Average Price (Y)**, which is calculated after the first averaging.
3. **Third Averaging Level:** Triggers when the market price falls **15% below your New Average Price (Z)**, which is calculated after the second averaging.
These levels are plotted on your chart as visual guides, showing where you would perform your averaging transactions. This structured approach not only helps you to systematically manage your investments but also takes the emotion out of decision-making during volatile market conditions.
#### How to Use:
1. **Initial Setup:**
- Input your **Initial Buy Price (X)** into the indicator settings.
- Set the quantity of shares or units you bought at this price.
- Enable the alert feature if you wish to be notified when the price reaches each averaging level.
2. **Interpreting the Indicator:**
- **Blue Horizontal Line:** Represents your Initial Buy Price (X).
- **Red Dashed Lines:** Represent the levels where averaging down should occur.
- The first red dashed line indicates the 5% drop level (first averaging level).
- The second red dashed line indicates the 10% drop level (second averaging level).
- The third red dashed line indicates the 15% drop level (third averaging level).
3. **Executing Your Trades:**
- When the market price reaches each red dashed line, consider placing a buy order for the same quantity as your initial purchase. This will lower your average buy price.
- The indicator provides you with exact levels for where to average down, helping you to be prepared and disciplined in your approach.
4. **Alerts:**
- Alerts are built into the indicator for each averaging level. You will receive notifications when the market price reaches these critical points, allowing you to act quickly and efficiently.
#### Benefits:
- **Systematic Approach:** Removes emotion from trading decisions by following a pre-determined plan.
- **Improved Risk Management:** By averaging down at specific intervals, you can lower your cost basis and potentially reduce losses.
- **Customizable Alerts:** Stay informed with alerts that notify you when it’s time to consider additional purchases.
**Triple Dip Averaging (TDA)** is a powerful addition to any long-term investor's toolkit, providing a disciplined approach to managing your investments through market fluctuations. Whether you're a seasoned investor or new to the market, TDA helps you navigate volatility with confidence.
