1-BTC
THE REASON WHY CRYPTOS AREN'T PERFORMING WELL LATELY.AS I MARKED, THIS BIG MONTHLY CANDLE PRINTED BY THE DXY IS SHOWING A LOT OF STRENGTH BY THE $DOLLAR WHICH COULD THEORETICALLY PUMP A BIT HIGHER BEFORE I REALLY START TO WORRY, IF WE BREAK THE TL AT AROUND 93.00 THEN I'LL BE EVEN MORE SKEPTICAL THAT CRYPTOS CAN RECOVER THE DIP EASILY.
THE CORRELATION BETWEEN THE DXY AND THE CRYPTOS IS REALLY SIMPLE: CRYPTOS ARE THE HEALTHIER ALTERNATIVE OF THE DOLLAR AND THE CURRENT FINANCIAL SYSTEM, IF THE DOLLAR KEEPS ON PERFORMING WELL THERE IS NO REASON TO SWAP WORLD CURRENCY FOR A DIGITAL ONE. I PERSONALLY BELIEVE THERE ARE MANY REASONS TO STILL OPT FOR BTC INSTEAD OF THE $ BUT THE MARKET REACTS DIFFERENTLY, IT DOESN'T HAVE BRAIN NOR SOUL.
CRYPTOS FOR THE LONG HAUL ARE GONNA FULFIL OUR DEEPEST DREAMS BUT FOR NOW WE JUST GOT TO SURF THE WAVE UNTILL IT LASTS.
PAY ATTENTION ON THE DXY AND HOW IT WILL BEHAVE IN THE SHORT TERM TO HAVE A TRUE HINT OF HOW THE CRYPTOSPACE WILL MOVE IN THE SHORT TERM.
DON'T FORGET TO LIKE AND FOLLOW FOR MORE CONTENT.
Elliot Waves Complete Guide | Chapter 4.2 - "Channeling"Hello Traders. Welcome to Chapter 4.2, where we will be learning about channeling in Elliott Waves (also known as, parallel channels) - something that many of you are probably already doing in your daily technical analysis, but probably have not known that it could be used within the Elliott Wave theory. This method is going to give us an extra edge when it comes to pinpointing the end of certain waves in certain patterns, basically a way to predict the future in some ways by reducing some of the probabilities of unknown trajectory of waves.
📚 Chapter 4 Glossary:
4.1 Alternation
📖 4.2 Channeling
4.3 Psychology
4.4 Fib-Ratio
4.5 Motive Wave Multiples
4.6 Corrective Wave Multiples
-----
What is Channeling, or Parallel Channels?
One of the major guidelines or rules within in the Elliot Wave theory is that two of the impulse waves (please refer to chapter 1) in a five-wave basic structure will tend to be equal. This is true in a normal five-wave basic structure or in a basic structure where we have one extended wave. In even more simpler terms, we almost always will have two impulse waves that will be similar in length. When we have the relationship between two waves inside the parallel structure, the ends of these waves can be calculated in points or percentages of extensions like the 127.2%, 161.8% (the golden fib zone! - more on the fibs in the next chapter). Most of the time these two waves will be equal in length, and if one wave was 100 points longer, then there is a very high probability that another wave will be 100 ticks long (also known as a measured move). And of course you already know that if the first wave is 90 points and the second wave is 100 points, there’s a high probability that the fifth wave will be an extended wave, and etc. Again, if you are lost, I highly recommend you go back to reading chapters 1 and 2.
So since we have an arithmetic relationship (or equality) within the structure in terms of line connections, the upper and lower boundaries of the impulse waves can be marked by two major trendlines. EW Traders will often draw a temporary channel when enough data is given, and what we have here is actually a temporary channel in the chart above. This is not a fancy term - this merely means you are drawing the channel ahead of time since you have a rough idea of the 3rd wave already being drawn out. You then can visually predict by connecting two or three of the major points to create a channel to help you assume where the next possible wave will end by simple support. You can see that the next wave will be a down move and then we have to complete the 4th wave. We don’t know if we are in a five-wave basic structure just yet, but the channel will help us validate this idea.
Furthermore, since the two waves inside of the structure tend to be equal and the longest wave here is the third wave, you can see that we can have a predicted fourth wave that will bounce at the channel support due to the 'temporary' channel support line we created as we can see in the chart, and the fifth wave will be equal in length of the wave 1, and will end up most likely at the channels resistance in the upper boundary.
What makes a parallel channel invalidated? Well, that's easy - if price breaks the channel prematurely, and continues to fall, this will invalidate our count and the idea of channeling. If the fourth wave doesn’t end at a point touching the lower boundary of the support line channel, you must reconstruct it by connecting the ends of wave 2 and 4, to correctly estimate the end of wave 5. Then draw a parallel line for the upward boundary from the end of wave 3.
Parallel channels help INCREASE your probability of wave counts, and also have a good direction of where simply support may be!
BITCOIN. "The cycle of dominance".A table to be able to see how much altcoin can go up or down with respect to the dominance and price of BTC and to know when there is a high season and Dump phase.
BTC dominance graph CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
Taproot upgrade: 1st major upgrade in 4 years for BTC| what now?Any feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis! If you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Keep supporting :)
Quick glance: In our last tutorial, we discussed the use of MACD in different time frames in crypto-trading. In this tutorial, we will discuss the Taproot upgrade: the first major upgrade for BTC in 4 years!
Let us delve deeper into the Taproot upgrade and why it was so badly needed!
The Taproot upgrade for BTC would allow smart contracts to be run efficiently and cheaply! As of now, smart contracts are usually run on the Ethereum network because of the higher efficiency. However, with the Taproot upgrade, Bitcoin has the potential to elevate itself and integrate with mainstream finance.
Taproot upgrade for Bitcoin would allow smart contracts to take up lesser space on the network. Technologically speaking the Bitcoin network currently uses the 'Elliptic Curve Digital Signature algorithm.,' which occupies more space. It will be switched over to the 'Schnorr signatures' that will make the simpler transactions potentially indistinguishable from complex transactions. It translates into greater anonymity in the network while maintaining transparency.
Apart from the efficiency aspect, the ability to run smart contracts cheaper is what will be revolutionary. Currently, running smart contracts on Bitcoin's core protocol layer is not exactly feasible. It is quite expensive and time-consuming, thereby rendering it almost useless. Many experts suggest that smart contracts would be one of the key selling points for Taproot. To put things into perspective, smart contracts can be used for almost any trivial financial transaction such as paying utility bills to pay rent, among others.
The impact on the investors would likely be huge. Any long-term investor knows that the true potential of their asset would come from practical use cases that are adopted by the masses. Bitcoin's taproot upgrade might just be the key element that would propel it into mainstream finance. The bottom line is the kind of revolution that the Taproot upgrade might bring for Bitcoin is phenomenal.
AJ Trady 5 min ema and macd strategy.A new strategy that I have developed. Only enter when EMA crosses one of the longer term EMA's + a bullish cross is forming on the MACD. Ideally, you should wait for ema 8 to cross both ema 21 and 34 with a bullish cross formed/forming on MACD. Use alongside normal Support and Resistance for SL and TP levels. If used on crypto I mainly suggest just BTC as alt setups easily ruined by BTC doing what it wants.
Difference between fast & slow moving RSI |Use in crypto tradingQuick glance: In our last tutorial analysis, we discussed RSI Divergences. In this tutorial, we discuss the difference between a fast and slow moving RSI and how to effectively use this in crypto-trading.
First let us understand what is meant by "lookback" period?
Lookback is the period under consideration. For example, typically RSI is calculated on a 14-period consideration.
2-period lookback is highly volatile and a 20-period lookback RSI would be smoother than a 14-lookback RSI.
2-RSI is a fast moving RSI and 20-RSI is a slow moving RSI.
Lookback period and timeframe are totally different. In both these charts, we have used a 1-day timeframe.
How to use fast and slow moving RSI in trading cryptos
Using fast and slow moving RSI we can place aggressive low risk trades. The key to achieving this is by determining the predominant market trend. In both the charts, we have used the 200 day - SMA to determine the trend.
Price of the underlying > 200day SMA == Predominantly Bullish trend
Price of the underlying < 200day SMA == Predominantly Bearish trend
Buy when:
Price > 200-SMA
2-RSI < 5
Sell when:
Price < 200-SMA
2-RSI > 95
Please note:
One of the most best ways to catch the trades on fast moving RSI could be using algo-trading. It would ensure that accurate signals are not missed!
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Any feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis! If you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Keep supporting :)
- Mudrex
The Basics - Trend LinesTrend lines are used in technical analysis to define an uptrend or downtrend. Traditionally, uptrend lines are made by drawing a straight line through a series of ascending higher troughs (lows). ... With downtrends, trend lines are formed by drawing a straight line through a series of descending lower highs.
In an uptrend, the “imaginary line” acts as support and in a downtrend, the line connecting the points at swing highs become the resistance.
Although we can go into what and why – the logic for trend line, is to keep it simple. It’s another subjective area and people like to spot patterns. It’s human nature.
This shows in it's most basic form the concept of a trend line.
In an uptrend we want to see, higher highs as well as higher lows as shown below;
And in a down trend, the opposite is true - Lower highs & lower lows to create the pattern as per main image of this post.
Many other techniques and indicators use this concept, and perhaps the most famous being Elliott waves.
Here's a post on Elliott basics;
This then all points back to Dow Theory - where markets have 3 cycles and 3 waves (another lesson for another time) in short;
Here's also a post covering the Dow basics;
You can also use Moving averages as part of "working out the trend"
And her is another simple guide to MA's (moving Averages)
We thought it would be interesting to post, more of a beginners post that our usual stuff. Hope this helps some of the newer traders.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Learn to Read Chart (MACD & XRP)✅ The MACD line is the 12-day Exponential Moving Average ( EMA ) less the 26-day EMA . Closing prices are used for these moving averages. A 9-day EMA of the MACD line is plotted with the indicator to act as a signal line and identify turns. The MACD Histogram (Below the chart) represents the difference between MACD and its 9-day EMA , the signal line. The histogram is positive when the MACD line is above its signal line and negative when the MACD line is below its signal line.
✅ MACD's formula:
MACD = 12-Period EMA − 26-Period EMA
✅ MACD is often displayed with a histogram which graphs the distance between the MACD and its signal line. If the MACD is above the signal line, the histogram will be above the MACD’s baseline. If the MACD is below its signal line, the histogram will be below the MACD’s baseline. Traders use the MACD’s histogram to identify when bullish or bearish momentum is high.
✅ The box below the chart has 2 lines which alert traders when a crossover happens:
Crossovers are more reliable when they conform to the prevailing trend. If the MACD crosses above its signal line following a brief correction within a longer-term uptrend, it qualifies as bullish confirmation.
If the MACD crosses below its signal line following a brief move higher within a longer-term downtrend, traders would consider that a bearish confirmation.
✅ TradingView lets you use the MACD for fast and easy forecasting. You can find it in Indicators & Strategies (f(x)) above your chart.
Learn to Read Charts (Stochastic Oscillator & ETH)✅ Ever heard people saying that something is "overbought" or "oversold"?
One of the most famous and powerful tools for this is the Stochastic Oscillator.
This indicator easily shows you if something is overbought or oversold.
✅ What is a Stochastic Oscillator?
A stochastic oscillator is an indicator that compares a specific closing price of an asset to a range of its prices over time – showing momentum and trend strength. It uses a scale of 0 to 100. A reading below 20 generally represents an oversold market and a reading above 80 an overbought market. However, if a strong trend is present, a correction or rally will not necessarily ensue.
✅ To use the stochastic oscillator, it is first important to understand exactly what the readings are showing you.
The stochastic oscillator is a bound oscillator, which means it operates on a scale of zero to 100 – this scale represents an asset’s entire trading range during the 14 days, and the final percentage shows where the most recent closing price sits within the range. This makes it easy to identify overbought and oversold signals. Regardless of how quickly the market price changes, or how the market volume fluctuates, the stochastic oscillator will always move in this range.
✅ If there is a reading over 80, the market would be considered overbought, while a reading under 20 would be considered oversold conditions.
✅ If we continue our previous example, a reading of 93.3% would be considered extremely overbought during the 14-day period. Following stochastic oscillator theory, this implies that a price reversal would be impending. In fact, some people believe that a reading above 90 is extremely risky and warrants the closing of positions.
✅ The most common use of the stochastic oscillator is to identify bullish and bearish divergences – points at which the oscillator and market price show different signals – as these are normally indications that a reversal is imminent. A bullish divergence occurs when the price records a lower low, but the stochastic oscillator forms a higher low. This shows that there is less downward momentum and could indicate a bullish reversal. A bearish divergence forms when the market price reaches higher highs, but the stochastic oscillator forms a lower high – this indicates declining upward momentum and a bearish reversal.
✅ However, it is always important to remember that overbought and oversold readings are not completely accurate indications of a reversal. The stochastic oscillator might show that the market is overbought, but the asset could remain in a strong uptrend if there is sustained buying pressure. This is often seen during market bubbles – periods of increased speculation that cause an asset’s price to reach consistently higher highs.
✅ TradingView lets you use the Stochastic Oscillator for fast and easy forecasting. You can find it in Indicators & Strategies (f(x)) above your chart.
How to LOSE your MONEY in a day!!!Wanna lose your money? Follow these steps:
1. Follow Elon Musk on Twitter
2. Panic Sell
3. FOMO Buy
4. Enter more than 5% of your assets into a single trade
5. Use high leverages
6. Buy new hype coins
7. Get greedy
8. Draw meaningless lines on a chart
9. Don't use Fibonacci
10. Believe that you're the smartest person in the room
Which one of these mistakes have you made?
Share your experience in the comments.
How to deal with News ?How to deal with news :
Good trader should look at news as a secondary factor not a main factor !!
The main factor is Technical Analysis on chart
If you dont know the reasons of buying a coin you will exit at lose !
the main rule: buy the rumors sell the news
TAKE CARE IF...
1- alot of Positive news + price is high
Because most of times market makers will start sell on you while you in FOMO 📈
2- Alot of negative news + price is low = market makers will buy your coins at lowest price and you sell your coins at big loss and exit from market completely 💀
3- pump and dump groups they will spread news which serve their interest and you will be the loser ...dont follow them !
Of course there is some good news that can help you like coins network upgrade...etc you can mix it with TA for a good results
(Take the news from trusted resources )
Dont forget to like my ideas for more good calls and analysis
IOTAUSD _ If this were the WYCKOFF Accumulation ...On many websites educating us in relation to various trading methods and trading psychology we see often Wyckoff Schematics in relation to Distribution and Accumulation.
This example presents IOTAUSD trading pair, but obviously could be used on others. It's quite complex and extensive for beginner traders to wrap your head around but if true and spotted early might become a lucrative trading method for those who are patient.
Here I present an example which might obviously fail, but at least you know what you could expect if this were to platy out.
Elliot Waves Complete Guide | Chapter 4.1 - "Alternation"Hello Traders. Welcome to Chapter 4.1, our FINAL chapter! In this sub chapter, we will learn the theory of alternation. In chapter 4, you will learn all of the applications and guidelines on how to connect a lot of the patterns that we learned in the previous chapters.
The rule of alternation lies within the pattern of two corrective macro swings in a completed 5-wave sequence to alternate between a simple (very often an ABC) correction and one of the more complicated or complex Elliott corrections. In simple terms, as long as the general picture of the five wave structure is in tact, we can look for any alternations within the five wave structure. In even more simple terms, an alternation is basically a five wave structure that just has two different patterns within the overall trend. This is a very helpful observation on a macro perspective, because if Wave 2 unfolds as a simple ABC correction then probability will suggest that Wave 4 is more likely to unfold as a more complex correction. And vice-versa, if Wave 2 is complex, then you should anticipate that wave 4 is likely to unfold as a simple ABC pattern. That is it, literally.
Chapter 4 Glossary:
4.1 Alternation
4.2 Channeling
4.3 Psychology
4.4 Fib-Ratio
4.5 Motive Wave Multiples
4.6 Corrective Wave Multiples
-----
Alternation:
Now that we have the understanding of all the theories and rules behind each pattern discussed in the previous chapters, we need to start understanding guidelines and applications. The first application that we must learn is the concept of 'alternations' In simple terms, alterations occur when you are analyzing the markets and you expect the next common pattern to occur, that differs from the previous related pattern as shown in the above example. If you look at the above graph, the first example shows that:
• Wave 2 corrects rather sharp against the major trend to the expected 61.8% Fibonacci level.
• Wave 4 on the other hand is more of a sideways correction and only corrects to the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
❗NOTE: Wave 2 is usually a 'zig-zag' pattern which corrects much of the price movement and wave 4 is either a flat, triangle, double or triple three correction whose purpose lies in the extension of duration (accumulation phase).
On the right of the graph, we can see alternations within the actual waves within themselves. Not only does an alternation take place between different primary waves, but but you can have alternations inside of the waves, too.
Let's look at the two corrections: they are both showing an (A),(B),(C) pattern, but differ in the actual development of the pattern itself.
1. In the first variation example, wave (A) is made of an ABC Flat correction, which is followed by an ABC Zig-Zag correction that forms a wave (B).
2. The second variation represents the exact opposite. In both cases the second component of the correction (Wave (B)), varies from the first component.
→ BOTH of these corrections finish with a classic wave (C), which is a five-wave countertrend movement. Confused? Re-read over and over.
Wyckoff basics explainedGoing back to the 18th of March where we called the Buyers Climax top for Bitcoin's "Wyckoff" Distribution phase. We have had a lot of questions regarding the technique.
It's a very difficult one to put into only one post - but to understand Wyckoff methodology you need to first APPRECIATE what Wyckoff is about.
History
Richard Demille Wyckoff (November 2, 1873 – March 7, 1934) was an American stock market investor, and the founder and onetime editor of the Magazine of Wall Street.
Wyckoff implemented his methods of technical analysis of the financial markets (the study of charts showing movements of stock-prices and other data). He grew his wealth such that he eventually owned nine and a half acres and a mansion next door to the Hamptons estate of General Motors president Alfred Sloan in Great Neck, New York.
As Wyckoff became wealthier, he also became altruistic about the public's Wall Street experience. He turned his attention and passion to education, teaching, and in publishing exposes such as “Bucket Shops and How to Avoid Them”, which were run in New York's The Saturday Evening Post starting in 1922.
Jump forward - too much detail for one post to cover.
Wyckoff's research claimed many common characteristics among the greatest winning stocks and market campaigners of the time. He believed he had analyzed and determined where risk and reward were optimal for trading. He emphasized the placement of stop-losses at all times, the importance of controlling the risk of any particular trade. Wyckoff also has techniques he believed offered advantages when markets were rising or falling (bullish and bearish). The Wyckoff technique may provide some insight as to how and why professional interests buy and sell securities, while evolving and scaling their market campaigns with concepts such as the "Composite Operator".
Wyckoff offered a detailed analysis of the "trading range", a posited ideal price bracket for buying or selling a stock. One tool that Wyckoff provides is the concept of the composite operator. Simply, Wyckoff felt that an experienced judge of the market should regard larger market trends as the expression of a single mind. He felt that it was an important psychological and tactical advantage to stay in harmony with this omnipotent player. Wyckoff believed investors would be better prepared to grow their portfolios and net worth by following in his footsteps.
The LOGIC
Applying this concept in a chart you can identify market phases and cycles - here's the snapshot from a daily BTC move.
This relates to one of 4 (master patterns)this particular known as distribution schematic 1. **For the others you can see in the PDF linked below;**
Phases - Simplified
In this distribution schematic example (literally from Wednesday's BTC exit of the range) you will be able to identify a Buyers Climax (BC) from here, the assumption is that the composite man (strong hand operators) are taking profits - Money flow leaving, this causes an Automatic Reaction (AR).
Now many retail traders will assume, this is another pullback (failing to identify the BC) if their on a very small time frame (and many retail traders are operating on lower time frames) then the assumption would be "buy the dip" and for a little while they are correct, we often see this (ST) move up but, this usually fails to go higher than the (BC).
Composite man is in control
This game is what many retail traders refer to as "Market Manipulation" - whilst the reality is, there is an identifiable pattern. Human beings are greedy, fearful and outright stupid at times. This allows for the perfect schematic to play itself out as the composite man accumulated or in the Bitcoin move Distribute.
Here's an example from an older post I did walking through the psychology on a chart.
You will see how price action in inextricably linked with the moves caused by the players "you & me" in the market.
Later phases of this structure
The general idea is for the composite man to accumulate or distribute to obtain a better position for himself, taking the market one way and the other. Often at times, retail will do the last couple of steps among themselves. Although the strong hands are often hedging positions, it is not always required to have their participation as the phases move on inside the structure.
As we see a Sign Of Weakness (SOW) - the retail traders would have now seen a lower high and a lower low (logic) However from the (SOW) we move almost impulsively to the Upthrust (UT) the "bulltrap" to many newer traders. At this stage of the post, you might be starting to see inside how the manipulation works?
Next phase
Range bound - in true Wyckoff terms this region inside the schematic is known as phase B. We chop up and down and eventually create a new higher high. Again in Bitcoin's case we see the ATH. Known as the (UTAD) to Wyckoffian's - Up Thrust After Distribution.
This is the climax and from here we see the price breaking down until we anticipate the exit of the range.
On @TradingView We have also developed a pretty cool indicator to use one buy and one sell for Wyckoff schematics in particular. You can see how it fits inside the schematic.
The logic can easily be assessed and broken down into small parts, step by step. And therefore, if it's something we can program. It is something you can learn.
Here is the free link to the other Wyckoff Schematics - drive.google.com
Hope you enjoyed this short intro to Wyckoff - see the previous video posts for live Wyckoff overlay examples.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Wyckoff Basics part 2After my last educational wyckoff post - I had a lot of comments, questions and so on.
The idea was to post the basics and show the concept - there has been a lot of the overlay, breakdown and other people jumping on this. It was a move we called on the 18th of March (see the "they blew up the rocket" post).
In terms of some simple education, Wyckoff is deep and possibly too deep for newer traders. What I was trying to highlight was the existence of such techniques. In part one;
I only covered the point of how the distribution phase was playing out in Bitcoin.
In this post, I will share some additional depth - for those of you already familiar with Wyckoff techniques you already have this. So we are not covering here (volume, how to identify or any of the more advanced stuff or terms like creeks or mark-ups and downs) Just another simple intro to the basics & a step up from post one.
So if you have not seen the first post; check it out here by clicking the image.
4 Major types of schematics
The Accumulation and Distribution Schematics are a major part of Wyckoff’s work, These schematics are broken down into 2 patterns for accumulation and 2 for distribution. These sections are then divided into five Phases (A to E), along with multiple Wyckoff Events - we will cover this later.
Distribution schematics
So in the previous post & it was fortuitous that Bitcoin was a near textbook example of the distribution schematic #1.
The second type of distribution schematic looks like this;
As you can see, there are a lot of similarities & it can be confusing, but this is where it's best to dig deeper into the concept, why volume plays a big part in Wyckoff techniques and gain an understanding of the naming convention for each of the events inside.
** We have a naming convention key below **
Accumulation
As well as distribution you also have accumulation and this also has 2 (major) schematics;
#1
And #2
======================================================================================================================================
Key;
The first phase or ways to identify a schematic forming is with what is called a PS (Accumulation) or PSY (distribution) - this is basically the change of character as the trend moves towards a schematic; Preliminary Support (PS) and Preliminary Supply (PSY). The first significant reaction that occurs after a prolonged rally that
indicates budding supply showing up.
You then have a BC or SC - buyer climax / sellers Climax; the obvious BC in an uptrend suggesting institutional operators cashing out. and the inverse with the SC.
The next major event is the AR - Automatic reaction (rally) - The reaction that occurs after a Buying Climax. It occurs without previous preparation, hence the word “automatic.” and in layman terms it's the exit of large positions after a climax (SC and BC) event.
ST next - this is a second test (ST) A name given by Wyckoff to the reaction following Automatic Rally, (or rally following the Automatic reaction.) If that test is associated
with small range and light volume — it increases the likelihood that the previous trend is over.
Next a move down if it is accumulation would be a SOW - this is "Sign of Weakness" and inverse we have SOS "Sign of strength"
In distribution - you then have two major differences over the accumulation schematic; UT = Up Thrust and a UTAD = UP Thrust after Distribution.
For distribution you have a spring, think of this like the last drop before moving up rapidly out of a schematic on the Bullish side.
You then have "Test" phases usually of the support and resistance levels (zones) created by the schematic as shown in the images above.
And finally you have LPSY for distribution Last Point of Supply - A point at the end of the process of distribution where the Composite Man (Large operators) recognizes that demand forces have exhausted themselves and it is safe to start marking down prices.
Last Point of Support (LPS) which is the accumulation equivalent - A point at the end of the process of accumulation where the large operators recognizes that supply forces have exhausted themselves and it is safe to start marking up prices.
This is still only the basics, not looking at phases or volume or anything else yet. It's worth going away and studying this in a little more detail to get familiar with the concepts and terminology and in the next post I will cover the phases.
=======================================================================================================================================
I know a lot of you readers are here purely for the crypto/BTC calls made - and another logical reason we are still liking a slow move down at this level, comes in the current DXY situation. See this post below as to the current situation there. (the relevance might be small - But understanding the forces at work, with DXY to BTC. Is actually useful).
Shorter term strength = will aid BTC slow moves.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Elliot Waves Complete Guide | Chapter 3.6 - "Triple Three"Hello Traders. Welcome to Chapter 3.6, THE FINAL SUB CHAPTER! You made it this far, congratulations, you have learned a lot of the basic and complex patterns. We are going to finish this sub-chapter with the final complex correction pattern called the "Triple Three" pattern, which is VERY similar to the double three!
Chapter 3 Glossary:
3.1 Zig-Zag Waves
3.2 Flat Correction , Expanded Flat
3.3 Running Flat, Contracting Triangle
3.4 Barrier Triangle, Expanded Triangle
3.5 Double-Three
3.6 Triple-Three
-----
Triple-Three
Bear with me here, we are almost full finished with the complexity of correction patterns. As the final sub-chapter, I would like to make sure most people understand the double three correction. The triple three correction is very similar to the double three, it is just even more elongated and extended. The overall count is W,X,Y,X,Z, so the three simple corrections are separated by two "X" waves.
Just like the double three pattern, these "X" waves are usually zig-zags, but can take any form, which is why it makes these consolidation patterns so messy. A triangle is only valid as wave Z and therefore represents the end of the correction. As with the double three, the variation displayed only shows some possible forms of a correction. In general the three simple corrective pattern can take any shape (Flat, zig-zag, triangle - REMEMBER TO KNOW WHAT THEY ARE), but usually show alternation between themselves in any given form.
A final notice about corrections:
Most traders lose money in these long sideways corrections as the market does not present a clear trend. Trading in a sideways market is about surviving the markets, not profiting. It is usually full of false breakouts and messy price action. The experience shows, that most of the time it is the best decision to stay out of the market until a clear entry signal is given. That is why the triple three is such a powerful tool. In some cases a clear ranging market (especially on higher timeframe) can be traded, but this is only for experienced traders. If anything, this is a time to accumulate.
Remember, you must understand the basics of all the correction patterns. If you aren't even sure of the basic correction patterns, make sure to start from chapter 1!
Regardless of the skill levelAs a mentor - I try to get the message over so regardless of the level of skill you have or anyone in the @TradingView community has there will be nuggets of information that are digestible, simple to understand and a little fun along the way.
The issue you have with such a broad community, is there are all types of traders here. When I have written something a bit more complex I have had "I don't get it" or DM's asking to explain more. - you can't please everybody all of the time.
When I have left it to the bare minimum - even included "basic" or "introduction" in the title - I get, "this is not right, you forgot this, that or the other" or comments like "your doing it wrong" - we are in the age of the keyboard warrior. So the best way to simplify the message and deliver material that's broad enough for the masses, is by simplifying the info and adding enough technical nuggets to at least start the journey into the topic of the post.
Obviously, without a post being 400 pages long. It is also nion-impossible to give enough without giving too much.
When I wrote the Simpsons post.
It was taking something (not too complex) but complex for some, and adding the emotional states we have all experienced.
The tired bull -
Was actually playing on the BTC short call from March and some logic for the call.
This was from the "why people invest in crypto" post - and it's idea is to show the similarities to the Vegas gold hunters, one spin of the roulette table & the expectation of one win!
When I have gone into more depth in posts like Buying the dips, Gann Fan tutorial or even the most recent Wyckoff one.
You can see it will be daunting for newer traders. So I have tried to find a happy medium and adding a little fun to the charts along the way.
Recently in Crypto we have seen Social influencers such as Elon Musk and Paris Hilton say and post all kind of things. The issue is, and the point of this post. Is you need to do your own due diligence, you need to deploy proper risk management & get your own psychology in check. I am seeing and hearing of some crazy issues, caused by nobody but the trader themselves - over leveraging.
Trading is a long term skill, not a one hit win at the casino!
When in a community like this - nobody benefits from negativity. If your happy fighting the keyboard, take a little time to go and add some content you find helpful for others.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Trading psychology and a story of history repeating itself.Take a look at the chart above.
Now take a look at this one.
And now take a look at this one.
There’s something that all three of these charts have in common and it might not be what you think it is. I'll add before going further that this is probably going to be my most crapped-on post here but it is what it is. I want to talk about the problem of winning early.
During the COVID crash, millionaires were made. Millionaires were also destroyed. In more cases than you may imagine, millionaires were made and then destroyed. During the crash, there were a bunch of savvy investors who profited greatly off of the collapse of the stock market over the course of a month. A huge part of this was due to options and the magnified returns that can be possible with them. During the crash, this became even more possible.
See, while AMEX:SPY was shitting itself over the course of a month, implied volatility exploded across essentially every options chain that existed in the market. Normally, to be successful with options trading you have to have at least some kind of comprehension of how the underlying math works behind building a position. You have to have at least *some* comprehension of the Greeks. During this period, you needed none of that. You could buy a $150 strike put expiring tomorrow at the beginning of March and by market close you’d 10x your initial investment. It was definitionally free money if you were able to capture it and get in early enough.
This led to a huge influx of people jumping into the market because they were hearing their friends just buying puts like crazy. r/wallstreetbets started becoming more and more popular during this time as options use on Robinhood exploded and more and more people started piling in for the free money. After all, if the friend you have who flips burgers just made $1,000 in options why couldn’t you? Tons of inexperienced traders jumped in and made a lot of money.
Then the bottom happened. Volume started to die out, the bleeding stopped, the Fed ramped up their unlimited QE operations, and the market stabilized. What’s more, implied volatility slowly started to creep down.
New entrants into the “easy money” market who were very successful were convinced it was a fake-out. They were POSITIVE that there was no way this was a real bottom. COVID was still rampant, countries were still shutting down, and in this case they were correct. COVID was nowhere near finished. Now more than a year later, we’re still dealing with it in many ways and the world is far from being “back to normal”. What they were wrong on, however, was that the market would continue to care.
The truth of the matter was that none of these new entrants had any clue what they were talking about. None of them had any concept of even what the market’s current valuation of specific assets even meant in the context of COVID. There was no talk of gauging the actual value of stocks against projected success in sustaining COVID. There was no concept of the market being “forward thinking” in terms of how it allocates capital. It was just all “this is bullshit, there’s no way this it the bottom” and reams and reams of conspiratorial tweets and posts about “the coming leg down”. It was all bullshit, the market bottomed, big money was now hunting for bargains because it assumed that COVID would pass and the market would recover.
In addition to this, implied volatility also started to drop. Just buying random options in the general direction you thought the market might go became less and less of a winning strategy. Soon, people were losing their shirts on big bets using money they made during the drop. People were bearish to the point of insolvency. They fought the trend instead of going with it and they kept with a losing options strategy because they used to make money doing it. The amount of money won and lost by retail during the months of March, April, May and June was astronomical.
There’s something that happens to a person when they discover something new, try it out, and become immediately successful at it. There’s a trigger in our brains that leads us to assume that we’re successful because we’ve just discovered some nascent talent that we never knew we had. Instead of looking at ourselves as lucky, we look at ourselves as imbued with innate knowledge that is guiding us toward success. After all, look at your account balance. That doesn’t just happen on its own.
This becomes so much worse in something like the stock market (or, perhaps crypto). The stock market and finance generally are things that people are often led to believe are zones of institutional expertise. They’re things that regular people shouldn’t be involved in. Look at the math used by some quant fund. Listen to the financialized, confusing language. It looks like this monolith of expertise from the outside. Then you become successful in it and you feel like you’re one of the club or, even worse, beating the club.
When we start to win after learning lessons and applying them, we train ourselves to evaluate information and apply it to something in the real world. When we start to win immediately, we train ourselves to believe that we just “know” what’s going to happen.
The biggest difference between these two mentalities in my eyes is what one does when what they “know” starts to be tested and broken. With experience and time, when the play you make starts to falter because what you “know” starts to look like it’s not working out, you take losses and learn. When you win immediately and a play you make based off of what you “know” starts to falter, it’s because of some outside force “manipulating” things or because of a million other reasons. You don’t take losses and learn because there’s nothing to learn. You’re right and everyone else is wrong.
Now we see this playing out again in the crypto world. Every other post seems to be about manipulation in the crypto market. Duh. Crypto is the most manipulated market on Earth. When 1,000 wallet addresses control 40% of the entire market cap of something, you don’t get to call it decentralized. It’s centralized, just in the hands of anonymous strangers or groups instead of alphabet soup agencies you can put a face to.
We see new entrants to the market flooding $DOGE and $BTC, enraptured by the story behind the crypto revolution and captured by early initial success. Look at my account. It’s up 1,000% I must know what I’m doing. I can’t imagine I just now found out about this. Look at the innate knowledge I have and how I can read these markets. If the market goes down, it’s not because of anything other than people not knowing what I know.
It’s going to make me sound like an asshole but it has to be said: if you are up 1,000% on an investment and you haven’t sold anything, you aren’t an investor. You’re not “beating the market”. You’re not on the vanguard of a new wave of investor shaking the establishment. You’re not “doing battle with the hedgies”. You’re a rube.
Everyone starts somewhere. Unfortunately (or maybe not) for some people, that somewhere is in the middle of a period of mania leading to euphoria in a specific market sector. It’s a period where you just can’t lose money. The good ones get crushed and learn from their mistakes. They lick their wounds and decide to stick with it. I mean, the population of r/ThetaGang must have EXPLODED of the past year with people destroying themselves with options buys. The bad ones get crushed and disappear, further angered at a system that “manipulated” them out of their money.
The moral of the story here is that we should all be suspicious of everything in the markets. Above everything else, we should be most suspicious of ourselves. Are we trading for the right reasons? Are we missing something? Are we really as smart as we think we are? The second you start to believe you know something the rest of the market doesn’t, well you’re screwed. Just remember that the second you look at a chart like the BTC or DOGE charts above and blindly think they look good you have turned a corner into trading on emotion or hope. What goes down isn't required to come up.
Wyckoff Price Cycle ExplainedAccording to Wyckoff, the market can be understood and anticipated through detailed analysis of supply and demand, which can be ascertained from studying price action, volume and time. As a broker, he was in a position to observe the activities of highly successful individuals and groups who dominated specific issues; consequently, he was able to decipher, via the use of what he called vertical (bar) and figure (Point and Figure) charts, the future intentions of those large interests. An idealized schematic of how he conceptualized the large interests' preparation for and execution of bull and bear markets is depicted in the figure above. The time to enter long orders is towards the end of the preparation for a price markup or bull market (accumulation of large lines of stock), while the time to initiate short positions is at the end of the preparation for price markdown.
Trends. Correction of trends. Sure reversals and deception.Read and watch carefully. Learn to think. Opportunities do not turn into a manic-depressive syndrome due to your greed, misunderstanding of work and processes, both local and global.
Shown in the graph for comparison. Today's situation is 19 05 21 ("Creativity 19") versus 13 03 21 ("Creativity 13") a similar situation in the past.
Your intelligence in the right direction can make you rich if you think for yourself and control your emotions.
1) "Deceptions" in the growing trend of 2017.
Playing with the psychology of desires and expectations. Simple psychology.
March 2017
july 2017
september 2017
I would like to draw attention to how the expectation and disappointment of the main market participants are used here for "driving a round dance of greed".
2) "Faith that cannot be killed". Situation after the peak of 2020.
17-12-17 "Revolution".
17 12 2019
06 03 2020
3) Dump. Important decision. Manipulation before a scheduled dump. Overdid it ....
14 11 2018
16 12 2018
An "unexpected mess" with .... the main trend. Slow, subtle fix.
4) Dump before BTC halving
13 03 2020
16 03 2020
Start 2 under the stage "Crown" (CrownCode6)
Closing sectors (13/3/22) Using the situation
In such a situation, TA and fortune-telling (inferences due to the data of the old chart history + news background) do not matter. It is simply the desire of a very small group of players at work.
How to counter and use it? Always have your own plan for different outcomes of trading situations, more likely and less. Understand what risk management is and use it in practice. Always protect your profits (the greed of the majority of those who give away does not allow this, it is used). Rise / fall. Your trading system should work in different directions.
Understand the "mood of the crowd", not be among them. No emotion. Cold calculation.
Projection of the above on cash earnings:
1) If you are correct the amount grows in astronomical progression. Gives new potential "For other things"
2) If you are wrong, it does not decrease significantly. Provides new potential "for development in this speculative hobby."
5) Dump before BTC halving.
The trading situation is large scale.
13 03 2020
16 03 2020
"The girl did her best" .....
6) Situation 19 05 21. The first "sabotage".
19 05 2021
2021
7) This situation is on a larger scale.
19 05 2021
2021
For those who know how to think
8) " Green Swan" . 4-6 06 2021
9) COP26. 1 11 2021 - 12 11 2021
First SHAH, then MAT.
