Some thoughts about Bitcoin (education)I have been watching the price movement of bitcoin and I consider a possibility that the current price action is a very rare pattern of the terminal impulse, which consists of 5 waves, but waves of a smaller degree form the 3-3-3-3-3 pattern.
This is not 100% true until it is completed, and serious trading decisions should not be made on this basis.
However, I decided to make this post for the reason that the fact of the formation of such a pattern is very interesting, because it is quite rare.
Please, don't forget to like and follow.
Thank you.
1-BTC
Ross hooks on the example of BTC.When confirming the trend + 22%Ross hooks on the example of BTC / USD. With the continuation of the trend + 22%
I decided to combine a teaching and trading idea. As we see from the story, after detecting the 1-2-3 pattern, Ross hook worked twice in a row. Perhaps it will work out again, or at least partially move, provided that the line of the local uptrend is not broken . I marked the area for observation on the graph.
It is also very important to observe the volume if the line of an uptrend is broken without a significant volume - a high probability of a false breakdown. As for me, there is a high probability of her breaking through. If the price breaks the uptrend line on the seller’s volume and consolidates below it, a good entry point to the short one.
But if we assume that the price cannot break the line of the upward local trend and the upward movement continues , then we are at point 3 of the entrance using the Ross hook trading method. Maximum potential + 22%. I will describe this trading method in more detail in the next part of this article.
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Pattern 1-2-3.
Joe Ross claims that you can successfully deal with market chaos on the basis of simple patterns that are inherent in the market and will always manifest themselves, regardless of how many bidders will know about them.
Ross hooks are a pattern so named for its resemblance to a climber’s equipment. Initially, Ross used his strategy in commodity markets, and when the era of electronic trading began, Ross Hooks, with some improvements, appeared in the arsenal of trading strategies in other markets.
The so-called 1-2-3 pattern, according to the writings of Joe Ross, is a reversal formation, that is, it determines the point of a trend fracture.
Ross Hooks strategies apply only if there is a trend. With lateral movement (flat) they can not be used!
Tracking shape is easy to track. With a trend movement, internal fluctuations occur, forming local minima and maxima, each of which is lower than the previous ones.
In the case of the bullish version of the 1-2-3 pattern, after the formation of the next minimum in the conditions of a downtrend (it becomes point 1), a new maximum is formed above the point of the previous one, that is, there is a trend violation - this is point 2.
Point 3 becomes the next minimum if it is formed above point 1 - in this case, the formation is considered completed and becomes the first evidence of a trend fracture.
The bearish formation is formed in the opposite way - after the formation of maximum-1 on an uptrend, a new minimum-2 is obtained below the past extremum, breaking the trend. After that, the next maximum-3 is formed at a level below the previous one. This formation, whether bearish or bullish, is considered an indicator of a possible change in trend.
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Ross hooks. Efficiency is simplicity.
The formation of a 1-2-3 pattern is considered the first stage in Joe Ross's trading strategy. After it begins the second stage - the formation of the Ross hooks themselves. They represent new extremes on the emerging trend.
Subsequently, after the first, several more hooks are often formed, as in the example on the BTC / USD pair, which are nothing more than a series of successively updated extrema on the new trend. Each such figure can be considered a new entry point for position gain. But be sure to follow the trend itself and its strength.
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Ross hook Trading - Features and Rules:
1) A characteristic feature of the Ross Hook is the impossibility of a bearish (bullish) trend to reach the next peak price value, followed by a correction.
2) To apply this strategy, it is enough to have at hand the standard set of MT4 or Tradingview tools (any other trading terminal is also suitable).
3) The strategy is applicable only on trend movements (Ross Hooks appear in the initial stage of the trend).
4) To see Ross Hooks on a bull trend, you need to identify the previous bearish trend (and vice versa).
5) The recommended ratio of stop loss and take profit is 1: 2 or 1: 3 (fixed).
6) You can open positions after closing the 3rd sliding candle.
7) Additional signals - stochastic, moving average, Bollinger bands, etc.
8) Using the Ross Hook indicator, you can simplify the task of finding the necessary graphical models. If there is no indicator, you can use the usual ZigZag indicator.
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TARGET for working with the Ross hooks formation.
The goals for the development of the Ross hooks formation in the Bull and Bear Market. The goal sets the distance from the level of point 1 to the level of point 2, pending from the level of point 3.
Stop Loss is set lower / higher depending on the trend of the bull / bearish level of point 3. Cured Stop Loss is set based on the volatility of the trading instrument.
It is worth noting that this is the minimum goal. If the price goes in your direction, you can stay in the position, but do not forget greed - it creates poverty. In this option, be sure to move Stop Loss as the price rises, but take into account the volatility of the trading instrument.
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Tips for traders from Joe Ross.
There are recommendations given by Joe Ross aimed at successfully putting his strategy into practice. By following them, traders can avoid common mistakes and increase the profitability of their trading.
Joe's recommendations should be heeded - despite his venerable age, he still continues to actively and successfully trade on exchanges, combining this work with teaching.
The decision to enter the market:
1) You do not have to wait for the price of a losing trade to turn around in the direction you need. No need to incur losses to prove their case. Moreover, one should not increase the unprofitable position. The best solution would be to exit the position and accept your own losses, as they are inevitable in stock trading;
2) Before opening a position, you need to determine the levels of stop loss and profit based on the market situation, and not based on the size of your personal deposit. If the stop to be set according to the strategic calculation is too large for the trader’s account, you should forget about opening a deal;
3) The decision to exit the market should be based solely on changing market circumstances.
The market has its own character:
1) Do not enter the market during periods of excessively high volatility - the pursuit of large profits does not always end as a trader would like.
2) Not all bear market strategies are bullish;
3) For each type of market (growth, decline, flat) you need to have your own "trading menu";
4) A canceled buy signal may be a sell signal (and vice versa);
5) It is always easier to lose money during trading than to make money.
About the impact of news:
1) Today’s news is best viewed tomorrow. The news becomes irrelevant and does not interfere with focusing on your trading plan.
2) If the reaction to the news from the market was not instantaneous, perhaps it will follow in the future and will have a more serious scale;
3) If the market did not respond to the news instantly, then it can be important.
Time factor:
1) To increase the likelihood of a successful transaction, it is necessary to enter it with a little delay, and exit without waiting for the change in profitable movement;
2) When the crowd enters the deal in full force - it is time to leave it.
How to accompany the deal.
1) Trade must be constantly monitored. There should always be a plan B, in case of a decrease in balance;
2) Do not confuse confidence with self-confidence. If you have a feeling of anxiety, you just need to close your positions, and after a while you can continue trading with a cold head;
3) Success is not a single transaction, but a successful series;
4) The best way to stop trading at a loss is to take a break and rest. The signal may be three transactions with losses;
5) If a series of losing trades is delayed, it is worth taking a break. This will allow you to collect your thoughts and, possibly, turn the tide.
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The conclusion on this strategy is to trade Ross hooks.
Ross hooks are not just a pattern - this is a full-fledged authoring strategy from a well-known trader based on the use of technical analysis when trading in a trend.
In fact, the hooks themselves are a series of successive local extremes that are characteristic of a trend price movement.
It is important to remember that this system does not work with lateral movement, which is why for its use it is important to be able to qualitatively determine trends and the prerequisites for their change.
BTCUSD: Volume Profile Accumulation Zone $5,910 - $8,630
Suggested accumulation zone: $5,910 - $8,630. This is where the bulk of the volumes lies in the past 27 months.
VPVR shows point of control as $6,263 from the rally in September 2017 from mid $3ks until January 2020.
Declining volume implies a breakout in the not so distant future. Above $11,500 there is declining volume.
DYOR.
BTCUSD Fisher Transform of OBVFor this chart I utilized the Fisher Transform of the On Balance Volume (OBV) to identify common patterns not particularly discoverable by looking at price alone.
Notice I do not portray a forecast using the same candle movement as when the fisher pattern indicates a repeating trend. This is because the price action will
most likely not follow the same historical price pattern.
What the Fisher Transform has identified for us is a common wind up characteristic only seen by a Gaussian normal distribution of the action. In this way, the indicator highlights
when prices have moved to an extreme, based on recent prices. In this case we are considering the On Balance Volume (OBV).
Note that this is simply an idea and should not be taken as a prediction with targets.
You can see the efficacy of this indicator by looking at the following charts which were intended with price prediction in mind.
Best shot for bears if we get white vertical through a green barCAVEAT - SMALL SAMPLE SIZE
NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
Trying to work out conditions that need to be met for a big downward move using "line break charts" and MACD.
This weekly one show better what a green bar with a white vertical through it could do for bears
EW Analysis: DASH Is Showing Bullish EvidencesHello traders!
Today we will talk about cryptocurrencies, specifically DASH in which we potentially see the bottom and bullish reversal.
Well, what we have noticed in the Crypto market is that we usually see some trend changes at the end of the year. Let's take Bitcoin for example; BTC topped at 20k at the end of 2017, then bottomed at 3k at the end of 2018 and now at the end of 2019, we may see another trend change, ideally to the upside after a complex corrective decline in the second half of 2019.
Anyway, let's talk about Dash. Dash was not so strong like BTCUSD in the beginning of 2019, which has later, in the second half of 2019 caused bigger and much more impulsive decline back to 2018 lows, mainly because of BTC dominance, while BTCUSD was trading just in a corrective downtrend. But now, at the end of 2019 and in the beginning of 2020 seems like we may see a bullish reversal once again, so let's go through some evidences.
The first evidence is that DASH might have completed a big five-wave decline from June 2019 highs.
The second evidence is that DASH formed a big an ending diagonal (wedge pattern) into the final wave 5.
And the third, the most important evidence is that we can see a five-wave bullish turn from the 38.00 psychological target level, which confirms more upside at least for wave "c"or "iii" after pullback in wave "b" or "ii".
That being said, we believe that DASH can see at least a bigger recovery in three waves towards 80 area, but there's also a high probability that we may see even higher prices towards within wave "iii" this year.
Be humble and trade smart!
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Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
Bitcoin Dominance Cheat Sheet 2020Presented is the Bitcoin Dominance Chart.
We've since reached target of the major Broadening Descending Wedge it was on which granted many moon seasons pre 2019.
I have marked all major resistances and supports, Fibs from the ATH to ATL. And then Fibs from the ATL to the current high of 2019-2020.
Moving forward, these levels should be heavily respected, along with the trend lines.
This Is BitcoinTrading isn't easy, that is for sure. Of course the setups all seem easy on paper but when it comes to putting your money on the line IRL there are many traps. This is why risk managment and not going "all in" is so important. You must survive to profit.
P.S. Thank you to all my long time followers and interacters. You guys have seen me at my heights and at my lowest. I appreciate the iteraction and the comments and likes. TBH that one like or that one comment that you give means alot and it is always fun to interact with random internet people while we trade fake internet money! haha Peace guys
[BTC] Possible Redistribution.BTC had nice rally recent days.
To break down recent price action, see 1H chart.
1. Big volume push price from 6,950 to 7,260 (4.5%).
2. After 1, no bigger volume seen.
3. This morning, we see another big volume pushing price from 7,760 to 8,000 (3%).
It's possible that, some whale bought up in step 1, and is selling in step 3.
If that's the case, we won't see price going down immediately, because there are still buyers willing to trade on 7,900.
We can even see price break 8K, only to find out if the balance of buying and selling is broken.
Only then, the momentum of price action will turn to downward.
BTC Weekly OB'sFor those interested, OB's are quite the holy grail in BTC, together with RSI divergences... and PA (patterns, candles, etc...)
The only untested OB's are shows in blue, the ones already tested in green...
So we can see we have our bullish OB above PA untested, even if we gonna make a new low, we should test it, starts at 8223$ and ends at 9529$, but closing above 50% OB at 8876$ we are more inclined for upside continuation, closing above 9529$ or will be bull trap or we'll pump to next OB from there because it's bullish.
On the other hand, we haven't tested the bearish OB and we should do it, sooner or later (it makes sense sooner, probably after poking 8223$), closing below 50% OB at 7314$ we're more inclined for downside continuation, closing below 7119$ or will be bear trap, or we will dump from there because it's bearish.
So, right now we have a small range, a medium range and a larger range:
Tighter range: 7500$ - 8223$
Medium range: 7314$ - 8876$
Larger range: 7119$ - 9529$
As explained above, you already know what to do!
About the highest OB, we can't really say it's untested as we tested right after closing below with 2 candles (1 wick and 1 candle close inside, as you see, BTC wicked 50% OB but wasn't able to close above, so it dumped from there.
I drawn it like untested OB, because going up, from bottom 3k to high, you can see that we haven't poked that OB, and it's the only one untested, so I'd say we will do it, when... that's the question, but soon if we remain bullish and printing HH, HL.
OB's are magnificent tool to trade, learn them if you wanna be successful!
Chart is almost naked, just OB's, and you could trade solely on them.
PS: I just drawn the OB's that matter the most for the recent price action and to show how they "always" get tested!
PSS: I might be confusing bearish and bullish, because I don't need to name them and never do, would rather call them green and red but some are white and black :)
Doji lesson 1-2-2020Hello again. I am just being observant this a.m. and looking at these dojis on the 1hr. This method is not perfect but I use it often. When I see a doji (like the ones indicated) and the doji is at the top of an uptrend or downtrend I will often take a position. I can not tell you I have won every time I do but I would put my win/loss ratio to 75% win - 25% loss. Bitcoin has a mind of its own and if you have traded for any amount of time you should know that by now. But there are a few things that can signal a turn around and this is one of them.
When a doji shows up at the top of an uptrend it can signal a drop. If the doji shows up at the bottom of a down trend it can signal a reversal as well. You need to play these with a stop loss. Anything can and will happen. If the doji shows up at the bottom of a downtrend than pay attention to the wick. The wick should be longer on the bottom from my experience. These dojis seem to work better than the ones with a taller upper wick.
Same goes for a doji at the top of an uptrend. If the wick on top is taller than the one below it works better as a reversal indicator in my opinion. Its easy to see how well this method works. Just scroll back through history. I have made decent $$$ from this technique. But WTFDIK right?
December Futures Comparison, Bitmex XBTZ19 vs. Deribit BTC27Z19Now that I created indicators for tracking both Bitmex and Deribit futures, I decided to do a comparison between the two before we loose the December Futures Data. Initial observation is that Deribit Futures seem to trade at a higher premium. Let me know your thoughts?
If you are new to my posts, please check out my other ideas and indicators in related links below...
MAJOR TOOL YOU MUST HAVE IN YOUR TRADING TOOL BOX!COINBASE:BTCUSD
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE COVERED! It is so important that you understand support and resistance. It may seem so basic but this alone can make you consistent profits. Understanding where the market may pivot is an edge you simply can not afford to not have in your technical plan.
If you have any questions or comments, leave them down below and i will get back to you! want a topic covered? let me know in the comments.
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