1-BTC
BTCUSD | What if...?Hello, dear TW community. Today I would like to introduce my "ridiculous hypothesis" about BTC. As we all know, "Elliot Waves" have 5 impulsive moves. If we look at 1M chart, we are easily to see that BTC has never been bear market at all, all humble blocks (2014-15, 2018) that it have been through so far I might call them as "corrections".
What if BTC's real bear market comes every 10 years?
Then, 1 BTC's worth is equal to me between $110-$1300 right today.
Good luck in trades, buddy.
A Comprehensive Guide to Elliott Wave Degrees (Timeframes)Hello Traders. In this supplemental post to my Elliott Wave guide, I will help you understand wave degrees, and what the numbers actually mean when you are labeling each wave.
Identifying the wave level (degree) that you are trading is going to be identified at any given time and will be based on what's known as a "degree".
One of the biggest problems that new Elliott Wave traders have is grasping the structure or "nesting" of the wave patterns (check the diagram within the chart above).
The patterns identified by Elliott himself, occurs across multiple time frames. This means that a completed "five wave" wave structure on a smaller time frame, for example, the 15 minute chart, may represent just the first wave of a larger wave structure unfolding on a 60-minute chart, and so forth. In a micro-macro sense, each of the unfolding wave patterns is just part of a bigger wave pattern unfolding in the higher timeframes. The sequence from wave 1 through 5 completes one wave of a higher degree (again, refer to the diagram above), that is, a wave belonging to the next higher tier of wave sequences. The movements from wave 1 through 5 completes either a wave 1, 3 or 5 of the higher degree, while the a-b-c sequence completes either a wave 2 or 4 of the higher degree.
When you are getting into lower degrees, each wave of the sequence can be broken down into smaller waves accordingly to the same dynamic (this is not so important as many claim to be). The most commonly used degrees are the Primary, Intermediate, and Minor degrees when labeling your micro-macro wave counts. In the diagram above you can see how Wave 1 of the high degree is made up of a smaller 5-wave impulse waves and Wave 2 is made up of smaller three wave corrective waves. And each of these waves is, in turn, always comprised of smaller wave patterns, and so forth.
A Comprehensive Guide to Elliott Wave Rules & GuidelinesHello Traders. In this post I will be discussing every single Elliott Wave rule and guideline according to the Elliott Wave Theory. There are many confusions upon traders when applying Elliott Wave rules, as there are also guidelines to be considered when trading.
***RULES AND GUIDELINES ARE TWO DIFFERENT SET OF TOOLS!***
Elliott Wave Theory "Rules" MUST be obeyed, I repeat, they MUST be obeyed, and obeyed precisely for an Elliott Wave pattern to qualify as an Elliott "Wave" - However, the "Guidelines" do not have to be obeyed. The more Guidelines obeyed by an Elliott pattern, the higher its "rating" or "probability" of being correct. This guide is purely a supplement guide and a quick reference for ANYONE who is trying to remember the rules and guidelines. I hope this guide helps you to further advance into the Elliott Wave Theory. Please write in the comment section below if I have missed anything, I will be glad to add them in the update section.
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We can categorize the Rules and Guidelines into TWO distinctive pattern groups:
1. Impulsive Wave Patterns (5 wave moves), and,
2. Corrective Patterns (3 wave moves)
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**IMPULSIVE WAVES**
Impulsive Wave Rules:
•Wave 2 may NEVER move beyond the origin of wave 1 (it cannot retrace more than 100% of wave 1).
•Wave 4 may NEVER enter the price territory of wave 1.
•Wave 3 may NEVER be the shortest wave.
•Impulse waves ALWAYS subdivide into 5 waves.
•Waves 1, 3, and 5 are ALWAYS 5 waves.
Impulsive Wave Guidelines:
•Wave 3 most often exceeds the pivot of wave 1
•On rare occasion, wave 5 will not move beyond the pivot of wave 3. This is known as TRUNCATION (refer to my EW guide).
•Usually, wave 3 will extend and have 5 waves within the third wave. Occasionally, two waves will extend (3rd and 5th waves). Never will all three extend.
•When wave 3 extends, wave 5 tends to EQUAL in length with wave 1.
•When wave 5 extends, it frequently reaches to the length of waves 1 plus 3.
•Wave 1 is the least likely to extend, but can be valid.
•Sometimes, the extended wave corresponds with the current parent wave. (for example, In a higher degree wave 5, it is common for the lower degree wave 5 to extend as well)
•Sometimes, the extended wave will match the number of the current parent wave
•The center of Wave 3, normally has the steepest slope of the entire 5 wave structure.
•Wave 2 will develop into a ZIGZAG correction, FLAT, or a COMBINATION wave (WXY, WXYXZ). Wave 2 cannot be a triangle in its entirety.
•Wave 4 will develop into a ZIGZAG, FLAT, COMBINATION (WXY, WXYXZ), or TRIANGLE.
Diagonal Rules:
a. Leading Diagonal
b. Ending Diagonal
A Diagonal is a common 5 Wave Impulsive pattern labeled as a 1-2-3-4-5 that moves with the larger trend (up or down). Diagonals move within two channel lines drawn from Waves 1 to 3, and from Waves 2 to 4. A Diagonal MUST be contracting. There exist two types of Diagonals; Leading and Ending. They have a different internal structure and are seen in different positions within the larger degree pattern. Ending Diagonals are usually more common than Leading Diagonals in terms of probabilities.
•Wave 1 of a Leading Diagonal must be an Impulse or a Leading Diagonal.
•Wave 1 of an Ending Diagonal must be a Zigzag family pattern.
•Wave 2 may be any corrective pattern except a Triangle.
•Wave 2 must be less than Wave 1 by price.
•Wave 3 of a Leading Diagonal must be an Impulse.
•Wave 3 of an Ending Diagonal must be a Zigzag family pattern.
•Wave 3 must be greater than Wave 2 by price.
•Wave 4 may be any corrective pattern.
•Waves 2 and 4 must either overlap or be within 10% of length Wave 3 of doing so. All internal data points are considered.
•The time taken by Wave 4 must be between 10% and 10 times the time taken by Wave 2.
•Wave 5 of an Ending Diagonal must be a Zigzag family pattern.
•Wave 5 of a Leading Diagonal must be an Impulse or Ending Diagonal.
•If Wave 1 is a Leading Diagonal then Wave 5 cannot be an Ending Diagonal.
•Wave 3 must not be shorter than both Waves 1 and 5.
•Wave 5 must be at least 80% of Wave 4 by price.
•Wave 5 is never the longest when compared with Wave 1 and Wave 3.
•Wave 5 is always less than Wave 3 by price.
•The intersection of the channel lines must be beyond the end of the pattern.
•Diagonals must move within the two channel lines or be within 10% of gross movement.
•Channel lines must converge, slope in the same direction and neither be horizontal.
•The maximum number of pattern lengths into the future that the channel lines intersect is 4.
•The minimum time for Wave 5 is 10% of Wave 4. The maximum time for Wave 5 is 5 times Wave 3.
Diagonal Guidelines:
•Wave 1 of a Leading Diagonal is usually an Impulse, but in rare cases may be a Leading Diagonal.
•Wave 2 is usually ZigZag family pattern.
•Generally Wave 2 is greater than 35% of Wave 1's total price movement.
•Wave 4 is commonly a Zigzag.
•It is rare that at least either Waves 2 or 4 of an Ending Diagonal is not a Zigzag family pattern.
•Generally Wave 4 is greater than 35% of Wave 3's gross price movement.
•The end points of Waves 1 and 4 generally overlap.
•Expect the time taken by Wave 4 to be between 20% and 5 times Wave 2.
•Wave 5 is usually greater than Wave 4 by price.
•It is typical for Wave 5 of a Leading Diagonal to end before reaching the channel line.
•It is typical for Wave 5 of an Ending Diagonal to exceed the channel line.
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**CORRECTIVE WAVES**
ZigZag Rules:
A ZigZag is a three wave structure labeled A-B-C, generally moving counter to the larger trend. It is the most common three wave Elliott pattern. Zigzags are corrective in nature.
•Wave A must be an Impulse or a Leading Diagonal.
•Wave B can only be a corrective pattern.
•Wave B must be shorter than Wave A by price. All internal points are considered.
•Wave B must be at least 20% of A by price.
•Although there is no minimum time constraint for Wave B, it must not exceed 10 times the time taken by Wave A.
Wave C must be an Impulse or an Ending Diagonal.
•If Wave A is a Leading Diagonal, then Wave C must not be an Ending Diagonal.
•Wave C must be longer than 90% of Wave B by price.
•Wave C must be less than 5 times Wave B by price.
•It is not allowable to have both Wave 5 of A a failure (Wave 5 is shorter then Wave 4) and Wave 5 of C a failure.
•Wave C must be no more than 10 times either Wave A or B in price or time.
ZigZag Guidelines:
•It is unusual for a Wave within Wave A to have a greater gross price movement than Wave A.
•Wave B should end nowhere near beginning of Wave A
•Wave B should retrace at least 30% of Wave A.
•Wave B is most likely to retrace Wave A by about 38.2%.
•Wave B is next most likely to retrace Wave A by about 50%.
•Wave B is next most likely to retrace Wave A by about 61.8%.
•The largest Wave in B is usually less than the gross price movement of Wave A.
•The time taken by Wave B is usually between 61.8% and 161.8% of the time taken by Wave A.
•Wave C is most likely to have a similar price length to Wave A.
•The next most likely price lengths for Wave C are 61.8% and 161% of Wave A
•The next most likely price length for Wave C is 61.8% of Wave A beyond the end of Wave A.
•If Wave C is much longer than 161.8% of A, then the pattern is more probably the beginning of an Impulse than a Zigzag.
•If Wave C is complete, and has a greater slope than Wave A, expect the Zigzag to extend to an Impulse.
•Although Wave C should always be greater in price to Wave B, in rare cases Wave C can be up to 10% shorter than Wave B.
•The largest Wave within C by price is usually less than the gross price movement of Wave A.
•The time taken by Wave C is usually between 61.8% of Wave A and 161.8% of the shortest Wave of A and B.
Flat Rules:
A Flat is a three wave pattern labeled A-B-C that moves generally sideways. It is corrective and counter-trend and is a very common Elliott pattern.
•Wave A can be any corrective pattern except a Triangle.
•Wave B can be any corrective pattern except a Triangle.
•Wave B must retrace more than 70% of Wave A.
•Wave B is less than twice the price movement of Wave A, including internal points of Wave B.
•Although there is no minimum time constraint for Wave B, it must be less than 10 times Wave A.
•Wave C must be an Impulse or Ending Diagonal.
•Wave C must share some common price territory with Wave A.
•Wave C must be less than twice the longest of Waves A and B, including internal points of Wave C.
•Wave C must be less the three times the price distance of Wave A.
•Disallow back to back failures.
•Wave C must be no more than 10 times either Waves A or B in price and time.
•There is no minimum time constrains for Wave A.
Flat Guidelines:
•Wave A is usually a Zigzag family pattern.
•Wave A is rarely an Expanding Triangle.
•The largest Wave within Wave A is usually less than Wave A by price.
•Wave B is usually a Zigzag family pattern.
•Wave B is rarely a Flat.
•Wave B is usually greater than 95% of Wave A by price.
•Wave B is usually less than 140% of Wave A by price.
•The largest Wave within B is usually less than Wave A by price.
•The time taken by Wave B is generally between 61.8% and 161.8% of Wave A.
•Wave C is rarely an Ending Diagonal.
•Wave C is often about the same length as both Wave A and B.
•Wave C often ends at point which is a percent of Wave A beyond end of Wave A equal to the same percentage away from the start of Wave A.
•Wave C usually retraces a minimum of 100% of Wave B.
•Wave C normally reaches to the end of Wave A
•Wave C is not often more than 140% of the longer of Wave A or B.
•If Wave C is longer than Wave B, then Wave C is often about 61.8% of A beyond end of A.
•If Wave C is longer than Wave B, then Wave C is often about 161.8% of Wave A from end of Wave B by price.
•The time taken by Wave C is generally between 61.8% of Wave 1 to 161.8% of the shortest of Waves A and B.
Triangle Rules:
CT = Contracting Triangle, ET = Expanding Triangle
A Triangle is a common 5 Wave pattern labeled A-B-C-D-E that moves counter-trend and is corrective in nature. Triangles move within two channel lines drawn from Waves A to C, and from Waves B to D. A Triangle is either Contracting or Expanding depending on whether the channel lines are converging or expanding. Expanding Triangles are rare.
•Wave A of a CT is always either a Zigzag based pattern or a Flat. Wave A of an ET can only be a Zigzag based pattern.
•Within Wave A of a CT, Wave B must be less than 105% of Wave A's price length. The same rule applies for Waves C and D of the CT.
•Wave B must be a Zigzag based pattern.
•Wave C of a CT can be any corrective pattern except a Triangle. Wave C of an ET must be a Zigzag based pattern.
•Wave B of a CT must retrace Wave A by 50%.
•For a CT, Wave C must be less than Wave B by price and Wave C must be greater than or equal to 50% of Wave B by price.
•For an ET, Wave B must be less than Wave C by price and Wave B must be greater or equal to 50% of Wave C by price.
•Wave D of a CT can be any corrective pattern except a Triangle. Wave D of an ET must be a Zigzag based pattern.
•Wave B, C and D must not move more than 10% beyond the A-C & B-D channel lines (based on the length of Wave C).
•In an ET, Wave C must be less than Wave D by price and Wave C must be more than 50% of Wave D by price.
•In an ET, Wave A must move within the A-C channel or pass through it by no more than 10% of the length of Wave B by price.
•In an CT, Wave D must be less than Wave C by price and Wave D must be greater than or equal to 50% of Wave C by price.
•The intersection of the channel lines must occur beyond the end of a CT, and before the beginning of an ET.
•The channel lines must either converge or diverge. They cannot be parallel.
•Wave D of a CT must not end such that when retraced 25% by E, E will not reach the price territory of A.
•Only one channel line in a CT may be horizontal. Neither channel line of an ET can be horizontal.
•The maximum time for Wave D is 4 times Wave C.
•Wave E of a CT can either be a CT or a Zigzag family pattern. For an ET, Wave E must be a Zigzag based pattern.
•In an ET, Wave E must be greater than Wave D by price and Wave D must be greater or equal to 50% of Wave E by price.
•In an ET, either Wave A or B will be the shortest Wave in the pattern.
•In a CT, Wave E will be less than Wave D by price and Wave E will be greater than or equal to 25% of Wave D by price.
•In a CT, either Wave A or B will be the longest Wave in the pattern.
•In a CT, the maximum time for Wave E is 4 times Wave C.
•Wave E must end in the price territory of A.
•Wave E must not pass through the B-D line, or if it does, by no more than 10% of the length of Wave D.
•The maximum number of pattern lengths into the future that the channel lines intersect is 6.
Triangle Guidelines:
•Wave A is usually a zigzag family pattern.
•Wave B is usually a zigzag family pattern.
•Wave C is often a zigzag family pattern.
•Wave C usually takes more time than any other Wave in the pattern.
•Wave D is usually a zigzag family pattern.
•Waves B, C and D rarely move outside the B-D line.
•Waves A, B, C and E rarely move outside the A-C line.
•Wave E is usually a zigzag family pattern or the same type of Triangle as the larger pattern.
•Usually at least two Waves travelling in the same direction will relate by about 61.8%.
•It is common for two or more adjacent Waves will be related by 61.8%.
•In a CT, Wave E normally retraces Wave D by about 70%.
•Double and Triple ZigZag Rules:
•Double (DZ) and Triple (TZ) Zigzags are similar to Zigzags, and are typically two or three Zigzag patterns strung together with a joining Wave called an x Wave, and are corrective in nature. Doubles are not common, and Triples are rare. Zigzags, Double Zigzags and Triple Zigzags are also known as Zigzag family patterns, or 'Sharp' patterns. Double Zigzags are labeled w-x-y, while Triple Zigzags are labeled w-x-y-xx-z. Both these patterns are included in the list of rules and guidelines below. Only a Double Zigzag is illustrated below.
Double and Triple ZigZag Rules:
•Wave W must be a Zigzag.
•Wave C of W cannot be a failure.
•Wave X can be any corrective pattern except an ET.
•Wave X must be smaller than Wave W by price.
•Wave X must retrace at least 20% of W by price.
•The gross price movement of Wave X must be less then 3 times the price movement of Wave W.
•Wave X must be no more than 5 times Wave W by time.
•Wave Y must be a Zigzag
•Wave Y must be greater than or equal to Wave X by price.
•Back to back and double failures are not allowed.
•Wave Y must be greater than 90% of Wave W by price, and Wave Y must be less than 5 times Wave W by price.
•Wave Y must be no more than a factor of 5 times either Wave X or W in price or time.
•Wave C of Y cannot be a failure.
•Wave XX can be any corrective pattern except an ET.
•Wave XX must be smaller than Wave Y by price.
•Wave XX must retrace at least 20% of Y.
•The gross price movement of Wave XX must be less than 3 times the gross movement of Wave W.
•Wave Z must be a Zigzag
•Wave Z must be greater than or equal to Wave XX by price.
•Wave Z must be less than 5 times Wave Y by price, and must also be less than 5 times Wave W by price.
•Wave Z must be no more than a 5 times either Waves XX, Y, X or W in both price and time.
•Double and Triple ZigZag Guidelines:
•The largest Wave in Wave W is usually less than Wave W by price.
•Wave X is usually a Zigzag family pattern.
•Wave X is usually less than 70% of Wave W by price.
•Wave X will usually retrace at least 30% of Wave W.
•Wave X is most likely to be a 38.2% retracement of Wave W.
•Wave X is next most likely to be a 50% retracement of Wave W.
•Wave X is next most likely to be a 61.8% retracement of Wave W.
•The largest Wave in Wave X is usually less than 140% of Wave W by price.
•The time taken by Wave X is usually between 61.8% and 161.8% of Wave 1.
•Wave Y is next most likely to be equal to 61.8% or 161.8% of W by price.
•Expect the time taken by Wave Y to be between 61.8% of Wave W and 161.8% of shortest of Wave W and X.
•Wave XX is usually a Zigzag family pattern.
•Wave XX is usually less than 70% of Wave Y by price.
•Wave XX will usually retrace at least 30% of Wave Y.
•Wave XX is most likely to be a 38.2% retracement of Wave Y.
•Wave XX is next most likely to be a 50% retracement of Wave Y.
•Wave XX is next most likely to be a 61.8% retracement of Wave Y.
•The largest Wave within Wave XX is usually less than 140% of Wave Y by price.
•Wave Z is most likely to be about equal to Wave Y by price.
•Wave Z is next most likely to be about equal to 61.8% or 161.8% of Wave Y.
•The largest Wave in Wave Z is usually less than Wave Y by price.
Double and Triple Sideways Rules:
Double (D3) and Triple (T3) Sideways patterns are similar to Flats, and are typically two or three corrective patterns strung together with a joining Wave, called an x Wave, and are all corrective in nature. Doubles are not common, and Triples are rare. Doubles are labeled w-x-y, while Triples are labeled w-x-y-xx-z. Both these patterns are included in the list of rules and guidelines below. Only a Double 3 is illustrated below.
•Wave W may be any corrective pattern except a Triangle, double or triple.
•Wave C of W cannot be a failure.
•Wave X may be any corrective pattern except a Triangle, double or triple.
•The minimum X Wave retracement is 70% of Wave W.
•The maximum price distance of Wave X is 150% of both the previous Wave and ensuing Wave. All internal data points are considered.
•Although there is no minimum time for Wave X, the maximum time is 10 times the time taken by Wave W.
•Wave Y may be any corrective pattern except double, triple or a Triangle in a Triple Zigzag. However, Wave Y cannot be a Zigzag if Wave W is a Zigzag.
•Wave Y must be greater than or equal to Wave X by price, except if Wave Y is a Triangle.
•Wave C of Y cannot be a failure.
•Wave Y must be no more than 5 times either Wave X or W in price and time.
•Wave Y has no minimum time constraint.
•Wave XX may be any corrective pattern except a Triangle, double or triple.
•The minimum Wave XX retracement is 70% of Wave Y.
•The maximum Wave XX retracement is 150% of previous Wave and ensuing Wave. All internal data points are considered.
•Wave Z may be any corrective pattern except double or triple. However Wave Z cannot be a Zigzag if Y is a Zigzag.
•Wave Z is greater than or equal to XX by price.
•Wave Z must be no more than 5 times either Waves XX, Y, X or W in price and time.
•Back to back and double failures are not allowed.
•If Wave Y is greater than Wave W by price, then the maximum Wave Z price movement is twice the price movement of Wave W.
Double and Triple Sideways Guidelines:
•The largest Wave in Wave W is usually less than 140% of Wave W by price.
•Wave X is usually a Zigzag family pattern.
•The largest Wave in Wave X is usually less than Wave W by price.
•Wave X is usually less than 140% of W by price.
•Wave X is usually greater than 95% of Wave W by price.
•The most likely retracement for Wave X is 110% of Wave W.
•Time for X is generally between 62% of W1 and 1.618 of the time of W1.
•If Wave Y is a Triangle, the most likely length of Wave Y is about 61.8% of Wave W. If Wave Y is not a Triangle, the most likely lengths for Wave Y are 100% of Wave W, 161.8% of Wave W and 10% of the length of Wave W beyond the end of Wave W.
•The largest Wave in Wave Y is usually less than 140% of Wave W by price.
•Wave Y is usually less than twice the longest of Wave W and Wave X in price.
•Wave Y is generally between 61.8% of Wave W and 161.8% of Wave W in time.
•Wave XX is usually a Zigzag family pattern.
•The largest Wave in Wave XX is usually less than Wave Y in price.
•Wave XX is usually less than 140% of Wave Y by price.
•Wave XX is usually greater than 95% of Y by price.
•The most likely retracement for Wave XX is 110% of Wave Y.
•If Wave Y is a Triangle, most likely length by price is 61.8% of Wave W. If Wave Y is not a Triangle, then the most likely lengths are 100% of Wave W, 161.8% of Wave W and 10% of length of Wave W beyond the end of Wave W, all by price.
•The largest wave in Wave Z is usually less than 140% of Wave Y by price.
•Wave Z is usually less than twice the longest of Wave Y and Wave XX.
📉How to stay calm during market crashes?🔋Hi friends! Have you saved your deposit to buy crypto? Markets are falling lower and lower every day. In this idea I will give you some tips on how to open successful trades when the market is bleeding and emotions are taking over.
At the crypto market, such massive dumps happen once in 3 years, but the price sometimes falls by 30% and rises by 500-700%. This is called volatility. Crypto market is still quite young, so it is very high here.
I think it`s an advantage because it`s give more opportunities to traders and investors to grow their deposit faster in compare to stock or forex markets. But if you don`t know what to do during market crashes and stay calm at any markets i`ll share with you some tips:
📈Follow the trend. First and foremost rule. You think you can reverse the price direction by yourself? Unless you have more than $1 trillion:) Why would you fight the market when it can help you? If you don`t know what is trend, please, check this idea. It helps you to identify it on lower (1m-1h), middle (1h-1d), higher (1d-1M) timeframes.
📣Join the trading community. Talk to different traders (scalpers, swingers), investors. Share ideas, keep an eye on other people's trading ideas. This way you'll faster understand your mistakes, raise your win rate and look at trading from different points of view. The human mind is built so that you calm down when you shares your thoughts. Do it!
💹Use the trading strategy. Open trades only when the strategy tells you to do so. If you don't know what a trading strategy is or how to make one, post in the comments I'll do an update for you. Simply put, you need to:
1. Create filters to help you identify future price movement.
2. Use risk and money management. To earn in trading you don`t need to open a trade using all your depo.
🚩Personally, I use: trend lines, squeeze under them, mark key levels, volume and horizontal volume indicators, track the market manipulation. There are many trading tools - find your own or borrow someone else's and adapt to yourself and your psychology.
👶If you are new to the market and this is your first experience, trade on a virtual account or try to start with 1% of your capital. If you can't make $200 from $100, how can you make $20,000 from $10,000?
🏁The statistics says that only 1% of traders make profit, 9% trade at breakeven and the other 90% lose money. Be the 1%, learn, read, develop and stay calm!
Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
BTC vs stock and investing in difficult timesDifficult times are coming
Since march 2020 when pandemic was accounced we saw many bad for economy decisions. There was no doubt that it will have negative impact. At the beginning bad sentiments were "flooded" with printed money as per tradingeconomics we can see money supply in the US increased 4 times between march and april 2020. Until now we can see effects in very high inflation in Europe and both Americas. South America however always had this problem :)
The war in the Ukraine will have negative impact for wheat supply to many countries in the Middle East and Africa. Other countries to save wheat supply for themselves will ban export. Ban on the Russian oil will increase prices in Europe even more. Probably in some countries we will see fire on the streets in the next year.
When LUNA crashed many people lost 100% of their savings because some invested 100% in one asset.
High inflation is pushing people to bad economical decisions. Some people invest in gold, other in BTC or real estate to save money from inflation. This is however creating the bubble. Many people bought houses in the past 2 years because of very cheap loans (0.05 interest rates). With higher interest rates they will be not able to pay loan, many houses will be sold unfinished.
In the difficult times the winners will be the people who wait with investment for right moment. In next years we will see a lot of bankruptcy.
Watch interest rates in the next months. Expected are further rises in many countries. War in the Ukraine and oil prices have significant role too.
Want to play safe? Don't play at all... for now! ⚠️This is just a short idea to remind you of some important items in situations like this.
Don't just open random positions.
Have these items in mind:
What not to do in Heavy dumps
1. Don't do leverage trading
2. Don't buy coins in FOMO
3. Don't stick to the screen all-day
4. Don't do revenge trading
5. Don't average out every dip
6. Don't go all in one coin
❗Black Swan by stablecoins. Threat or opportunity for traders?Hi friends! If it heppen to one UST is it heppen to another stablecoins? Next trigger for BTC dump can be caused by stablecoins instability. In this idea i`ll show you some facts about it!
🦢Black Swan. The last Black Swan in all financial markets happened in 2020 because of Covid-19. The crypto market fell by 64%. After the bull market, the Fed Reserve started raising the interest rate, BTC fell by 56%.
What if all the stabelcoins are not secured by anything? If previously the fall of cryptocurrencies was caused by global cataclysms, now we can expect the first black swan only for the cryptocurrency market.
With a EXTREME fear in the market and panic sales of retail traders, BTC could fall to $22k or lower.
📊Stablecoins by Market Capitalization:
1. Tether (USDT) - $83B
2. USD Coin (USDC) - $48.5B
3. Binance USD (BUSD) - $17.1B
4. Dai (DAI) - $6.9B
5. TerraUSD (UST) - $6.9B
Total: $169.4B
❗It`s almost 10% of TOTAL Crypto market Capitalization (169.4/1400).
💱We all know what happened to Luna and UST stabelcoin. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen pushes for stablecoin regulation by end of year. Even if the LUNA and UST recover to their previous price, a lot of attention will be focused on other stablecoins as well. On the other hand, this is positive for the crypto market and market players, as crypto security will increase.
✅Friends, if you don`t know what to do when BTC fall by 60-75%, check this idea! I made an educational idea for you when BTC was $39k. It describes 3 ways how you can identify the bottom of the market for BTC and Altcoins!
Friends, where will Bitcoin bottom price? $20-22k or lower? Or BTC already find the dip and go to renew ATH? Share your ideas in comments!
Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
📊How to use Volume indicator to identify the BOTTOM?...and finally buy the right BTC and ALTs dip!😊
Hi friends! Lots of traders buy crypto at the ATH or close to it in hope to make 10x,100x etc. Is it possible and how to do it more succesfull? In this idea i`ll share with you some methods that can realy help you to:
🔶 identify the bottom of the market
🔶 use the volume indicator in right way
🔶 get crypto at a discount
1. Identify the bottom of the market. Already in several ideas I explain you how you can identify the bottom of the market, and traders shared their ideas in the comments also. We will not stop for a long time around all the methods, you can read about them in this idea and in the comments below it.
💹In this idea I will talk about the fundamental method of how to identify the bottom - liquidation . Liquidation is the process when the exchange takes traders' money to cover losses of a long or short. This can happen if you use leverage in trading and do not use risk and money management. 'Cascades of Liquidations' happen when the price falls without any stops by 30-50%. This is a result of not enough buyers in the market to hold the price and as the price drops, more and more leveraged positions get liquidated - it's like a snowball effect🏂 I've seen this in 2018, seen traders who entered the crypto market in the spring of 2020 and most recently in 2021.
2. Use the volume indicator in right way. Why do I use a volume indicator? It's very simple. This is an indicator that shows where a big players open or close their trades. 🚩If a huge liquidations have happened, someone has sold a lot and someone has bought a lot. Why? Just as DOM and Footprint help to identify whale buying or selling orders, so the volumes show the amount of money traded and help to identify liquidations. Also, it can be used at different timeframes to see whales' willingness to buy or sell at key levels, trend lines and other trading instruments. Volume is a real representation of the number of trades.
3. Get crypto at a discount. If you wanted to buy Bitcoin at 60k, why when it drop by 70% you don't want to buy it? Or altcoin, which is down by 95%? A simple example, when you go to the store you want to buy a car with a discount . If there are two identical Lambos🚙 which cost $250,000 and $100,000, why do you want to buy the one that costs more? Ask yourself this question. This is not financial advice, just a comparison of facts and explanation of traders psychology.
✅As we can see on the chart, the last time after such a massive liquidation in 2020-2021, Bitcoin and Ethereum rose by 1100% and 3400%. For example, Binance Coin (BNB) rose by 6460%, Cardano rose by 11400%. Also, after the last liquidations in 2021, there was a good ALTSEASON, when Bitcoin grew by 100%, and all Altcoins by more than 300%.
🏁My personal advice if it`s happen again:
1. Remember about your risks and money management.
2. Use your strategy and don`t panic. You need to just wait for good entry point.
3. Use VOLUME indicator like an additional tool. This indicator can help you to identify the bottom, but not to do all the work for you.
💻Please write in the comments if you still have the questions about the liquidations or Volume indicator! I`ll try to explain you additional tips 🎇
Press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
🚩How to identify the bottom and BUY the crypto in time? 3 tips!🌟How to BUY crypto in time and with the possible highest RETURN? The correct answer is during the capitulations.
🎯Capitulation is when even patient and experienced traders start to panic, but this is the opportunity time (Jan 2015, Nov 2018, Mar 2020, May 2021).
🔶How to buy crypto during the capitulations? Use the dollar cost average (DCA) strategy. This strategy allows you to buy crypto by parts without risking all of your capital.
🔶How to use DCA strategy? This strategy helps to average the BUY price. You can only sell at the top and buy at the bottom by accident. In real life, this strategy helps to average the buy price of a crypto. For example, back in 2019, you bought Bitcoin 3 times at $3,000, $4,000, and $5,000. The average purchase price in this case is $4,000. If the price go lower, you would average the price, if it rose, you already bought at a good price. Also, you can BUY at the weekly candle close during the capitulions. It is important to use the equal parts of the capital to buy (1/10, 1/20 etc.). Another simple example is shown on the chart😉
🔶How you can identify a capitulation?
1. Look at the volumes and record liquidations as shown on the chart. The liquidation of 50-100k Bitcoins is the best indicator.
2. Look at the percentage of drop from the highs. Historically, a price drop by 65-80% has been the bottom of the market.
3. Use the indicators that show the bottom of the market. Read this idea about the 🔋Greenwich indicator. It shows both the top and bottom of the market. So when BUY signals (green diamonds) appear, you can use this indicator to buy crypto by parts.
🔶Why does the DCA strategy work? Bitcoin, like U.S. stock markets, is in a long-term Uptrend. After buying Bitcoin in 2017 at its ATH ($18-19k), investors are now still at +100% profit. And as long as this trend is not broken this strategy will work. For example, the U.S. stock market has been in uptrend for over 80-90 years.
💻Please write in the comments if you still have questions about the DCA strategy or how else you can identify the bottom. What methods do you use for that? 🎇
Press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
Bitcoin: Liquidity and Order blocks!This is an educational post! I have tried to combine the concept of liquidity with that of supply and demand to show you one of the most efficient trade setups in financial markets!
You basically have a descending trendline in 30m chart of bitcoin! Price reaches a confluence area in higher time frame analysis (let's not be concerned about that now) then it jumps a bit to create a range! We know range bounds are liquidity nests!
So price first grabs the upper range liquidity, breaking the market structure at the same time and hence confirming the long bias! Then it comes down to the demand zone, grabbing the lower range liquidity at the same time and then boom! It goes to the target!
🎯BTC: Real Life wedge trading! Tutorial for traders!🌟 The picture of the wedge pattern is beautiful, but you have to understand how to trade in Real Life! In this idea I will try to teach you how to enter the trade and what to look for. The descending wedge is a bullish pattern. On the chart you can see how it works on Bitcoin. Over the past year, it has worked well in 3 out of 3 trades.
🎓What is the wedge? Wedge is the price consolidation in downtrend or uptrend. So if it`s UPTREND, the price making higher highs and higher lows. The whales in this case sell higher and higher. Ascending (uptrend) wedge is bearish pattern. So If it`s downtrend the price making lower highs and lower lows. The big players try to hunt trader stop losses to get the liquidity for their LONG positions.
🚩Let`s start from the May-July 2021 wedge! In addition to the descending wedge, there are several triggers to open a long:
1. false breakout (liquidity collection) of the $30K key level. A lot of stop losses were collected, a lot of traders were liquidated. The whales were happy. Additionally, pay attention to volumes as well as liquidation volumes.
2. squeeze under the upper boundary of the wedge and test it as support. Here you can open a trade during the squeeze under the trendline and after test it as support. It`s better to check at lower timeframe.
All this added up to a long two-month consolidation with stops losses hunting and Bitcoin DUMP by 50-55%. Many traders simply lost faith and closed positions at a loss.
The price rose by 50-60%, but if you had closed the trade on the next Dump, you would have a profit at least +30-35%.
🚩Next is the Sep 2021 wedge! In this case we didn't see big liquidations, the whales had enough liquidity, and everyone who shorted on this 23% drop became the fuel🔥 for further growth. Additional triggers:
1. a trend change. The price trend changed from a downtrend to a small consolidation and then started to create higher highs and lows.
2. squeezing under the local trend line on lower timeframes. If you switch to the 1 hour timeframe this is clearly visible.
3. test of the global and local trend line as support and growth without pullbacks (strength of the bulls).
We close the deal as soon as the target is reached. If you continued to hold the trade for more than 10 days, the profit would be at least +30%.
🚩 Will the fourth wedge break up(4/4)? During this Apr 2021 wedge, we have not seen the huge liquidations yet. Also, we haven't seen bullish strength, squeezes under trend lines or levels. Therefore, we should wait for our entry point and don`t open trades without the confirmation of the trading strategy. I'll share with you my local ideas later.
🌐Globally, the market has been in a $30-67k consolidation for more than 1.5 years. Sooner or later the price will choose the trend and maybe even in the next few weeks.
🔥Trading is the combination of trading tools, using filters and non-standard methods, which I try to explain in my training ideas.
Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
The analysis of the behavior of major player COURSE Part 5I want to procced to share my knowledge with you, guys
Now we can see the correction and waiting for pump
It's very clear moment for real.
Check my last idea to know all the course of major players behavior.
Have a nice education with me here😉
The analysis of the behavior of major player Part 3Today i want to proceed my sharing of my knowlege about the behavior of large players in the market,
how to notice them and how to use it.
So on this example of BTC we can see the candle that activated those stops of the major players that we talked about in the previous two parts of this tutorial.
This candle staying on the circled zone that we talked about last time.
Look! It is Amazing.
So after this candle we can be sure that the next target is the pump, becouse all stops of the major players it is = BIGGEST BUYS in the market.
Have a good mood
🎯BTC & $US index: the secret combo for traders!📊Bitcoin is rising while the dollar is falling and vice versa. Today I will use the simple examples to show the pattern that helps to identify the trend of Bitcoin for many years.
The instruments that we need:
🔶Bitcoin is the #1 cryptocurrency, the first and foremost crypto-asset, our favorite grandpa. Bitcoin's movement is copied by 99% of all crypto, it is the main indicator of the crypto market.
🔶DXY - U.S. Dollar Index. It was created in 1974 and shows the ratio of the US dollar to the basket of six other major currencies: euro, yena, pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc. The index essentially shows how strong the U.S. dollar is.
💡I've taken a few cycles as an example to make it easy to understand this principle. For the example, I don't take data up to 2017. At that time Bitcoin was with the small capitalization and a big HYPE. You're not interested in perfect examples, but in real experience and usage, aren't you?
So, the first cycle of 2017-2018 shows us that:
1. as soon as the index started to fall🐻, Bitcoin had an active bull run.
2. when the index hit lows it was almost Bitcoin's tops.
The second cycle of 2018-2020, Bitcoin spent in a huge consolidation and two corrections of -70%🐻 What was the index doing this time? Of course it was rising! Only after the last fall of Bitcoin in 2020, it was able to recover and continue its rise to the new ATH!
In the third cycle of 2020-2021 Bitcoin was able to grow to $63-67 thousand due to the unprecedented weakness of the dollar. Now Bitcoin is in consolidation and even the mass adoption and hype around crypto is not help BTC to renew ATH.
🏁The dollar was weakening amid huge inflation and Bitcoin was rising, but when the FED began raising the interest rate and investors began to transfer money from Europe to the United States, the index began a new bull run. You saw an example of what happens during an index bull run. Therefore, we should expect an active phase of Bitcoin growth at the moment when the FED rate hike ends (the end of August) and geopolitical issues will be solved😉
Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
BTC: Real Life mirror level trading! Tutorial for Beginners!💡A mirror level is a level that price tests as support and resistance several times. It helps to open long or short trades on a test of the level. Usually the mirror levels are numbers like 100, 1000, 50,000, which traders pay attention to. It can also be previous ATHs, important global levels that can be easily identified. Price bounces off of them because a large number of traders pay attention to it.
I have marked 2 global mirror levels for you:
1. $10101
2. $41950
On the chart I have marked tests of these levels. Also, on the chart you can see several short (+63%) and long (+59.7%) trades.
Now I give you 2 tips on how to open a trade using the mirror level:
🔶open a trade with a pending stop order. When the price is testing the level as support you can put a stop order to buy, and when it's resistance you can put a stop order to sell
🔶open the trade after the close of the candle. Once you are sure that the level has held the price as support or resistance you can open a trade
📑Based on the statistics, you can see that longs are more profitable. This is because Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are growing 80% of the time. But you can calculate the statistics by yourself and consolidate your new knowledge!
🎓Also you can read the basic desription about Real Life channel trading in this educational idea!
✉Friends, if you still have questions about using the mirror level, write the comments or to the DM!
Press the "like"💟 button and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
Marubozu Candlestick Pattern 📉📉📉‼️ What is a Marubozu in forex?
A Marubozu is a long or tall Japanese candlestick with no upper or lower shadow (or wick). The candlestick pattern comes in both a bearish (red or black) and a bullish (green or white) form and is easy to spot due to its long body. It basically looks like a vertical rectangle.
‼️ How can you tell if Marubozu is bullish?
The closing Marubozu is a stronger candlestick pattern. It is formed when the close price is equal to the high or the low of the day. When the close price is equal to the low then it is called bearish and when the close is equal to the high it is a bullish Marubozu
‼️ What happens after a Marubozu candle?
After two long red candles, the bearish Marubozu close pattern occurs, which signals that the bears are still a dominant force. Ultimately, the price action continues to move lower as the market was very bearish during this period of time
‼️ How do you use a Marubozu candlestick?
Basically, when trading marubozu candlesticks,
Watch for bullish or bearish candlesticks to form.
If bullish, take a long when price breaks above.
Place stop below candlesticks.
If bearish, take a short when price falls below.
Place a stop above candlestick.
Cup and Handle Trading Pattern 📉📉📉✅ A cup and handle is a technical chart pattern that resembles a cup and handle where the cup is in the shape of a "u" and the handle has a slight downward drift. A cup and handle is considered a bullish signal extending an uptrend, and it is used to spot opportunities to go long.
🎯 Cup Handle Pattern
William O'Neil's Cup with Handle is a bullish continuation pattern that marks a consolidation period followed by a breakout. ... The cup forms after an advance and looks like a bowl or rounding bottom. As the cup is completed, a trading range develops on the right-hand side and the handle is formed
🎯 What happens after cup and handle pattern?
If a cup and handle pattern is confirmed, it will be followed by a bullish price move upward. You can pick a price target based on the size of the cup, but it becomes much less clear what will happen after the initial breakout from the cup and handle pattern.
🎯 How reliable is cup and handle pattern?
The accuracy rate for cup and handle pattern for forex and stock on Daily timeframe are 65% and 68% respectively.
Three Black Crows Pattern 📉📉📉hree black crows is a phrase used to describe a bearish candlestick pattern that may predict the reversal of an uptrend. Candlestick charts show the day's opening, high, low, and closing prices for a particular security. For stocks moving higher, the candlestick is white or green.
🎯 The three black crows candlestick pattern is considered a relatively reliable bearish reversal pattern. Consisting of three consecutive bearish candles at the end of a bullish trend, the three black crows signals a shift of control from the bulls to the bears.
✅ The black crow pattern consists of three consecutive long-bodied candlesticks that have opened within the real body of the previous candle and closed lower than the previous candle. Often, traders use this indicator in conjunction with other technical indicators or chart patterns as confirmation of a reversal.
✅ Three Black Crows Explained
Three black crows are a visual pattern, meaning that there are no particular calculations to worry about when identifying this indicator. The three black crows pattern occurs when bears overtake the bulls during three consecutive trading sessions. The pattern shows on the pricing charts as three bearish long-bodied candlesticks with short or no shadows or wicks.
In a typical appearance of three black crows, the bulls will start the session with the price opening modestly higher than the previous close, but the price is pushed lower throughout the session. In the end, the price will close near the session low under pressure from the bears.
This trading action will result in a very short or nonexistent shadow. Traders often interpret this downward pressure sustained over three sessions to be the start of a bearish downtrend.
✅ Limitations of Using Three Black Crows
If the three black crows pattern involves a significant move lower, traders should be wary of oversold conditions that could lead to consolidation before a further move lower. The best way to assess the oversold nature of a stock or other asset is by looking at technical indicators, such as the relative strength index (RSI), where a reading below 30.0 indicates oversold conditions, or the stochastic oscillator indicator that shows the momentum of movement.
Many traders typically look at other chart patterns or technical indicators to confirm a breakdown, rather than using the three black crows pattern exclusively. As a visual pattern, it is open to some interpretation such as what is an appropriately short shadow.
Do you use this candlestick pattern ?
BTC: Real Life channel trading! 3 tips for beginners95% of beginners don't understand why patterns don't work as it shown in the books. That's why losses, stress, and worries appear. The point is that only practice and personal experience will help you understand how to use it correctly.
I will give you a few secrets how to trade in the channel successfully:
1. after testing the borders of the channel, wait for a false breakout or liquidity collection. At point 3 and point 5, there was a large collection of liquidity, after which you can open a LONG. You can see the result by yourself (+28%).
2. Pay attention to the key levels and value zones - combine instruments.
2.1. At point 4 there is a large value zone of $46-47k, which became a resistance. Combined with the upper boundary of the channel, it was a strong resistance zone, which means price is sure to bounce off. We saw a 20% drop!
2.2. At point 5, there was a large value zone of $37.5-40k from which the price also bounced off. The lower boundary of the channel+value zone was a major support for price. Not bad?
3. The middle of the channel. On the chart, we can see that it is often tested as resistance/support. An additional opportunity to open a trade.
Be crafty, use trading tools in combination with each other and you will notice results immediately.
Friends, press the "like" button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
Mistakes to AVOIDHad fun making this as I believe almost every novice trader will be able to relate
if you can relate, then you got a lot to work on, which is good
Here's an example of what kind of mistakes a novice trader does.
avoid those mistakes
and if you have done those already, then stop doing that
you got the wrong mindset
zoom out, journal your trades the same way
and you'll see way clearer
the more you introspect and journal your trades, the more level you'll get
BTC: identified the bottom with VOLUME PROFILE! How to use it?
As we expected, Bitcoin tested the $37800-39600 zone. But how could you predict this? You have to use the volume profile.
A volume profile is close to horizontal volumes (bottom panel), but using them, you can indicate:
1. value areas(support and resistance)
2. liquidity gaps
This indicator is easy to apply, it is in the left sidebar in the "Prediction and Measurement Tools". You can use it to indicate the value zones in ANY crypto/stocks/currency.
Why does it work? The volume profile is a real value data and that's why the price reacts to it most of the time. Similarly, you can use the DOM and Footprint in real time to track the value zones and reversal points for price. If you have questions about it, write in comments or to the DM!
Right now we expect an upward move on Bitcoin:
1. The price has started to squeeze under the $41400-42700 value zone, which shows buyer strength.
2. Volumes have also increased. BIG VOLUMES=BIG PLAYERS.
3. Short traders who opened trades on the fall will be the FUEL for the upward movement.
Friends, press the "like" button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
Bitcoin: 2 trading tips for BEGGINERS!Bitcoin has been in a $30,000 to $67,000 global consolidation for more than a YEAR. You can see on the chart that Bitcoin was down -31%, -36%, -58%, -25%, -52%, -19%. If you use a leverage larger than x2, you could be liquidated multiple times!
Do you want to increase your deposit? Use risk and money management! These are simple rules that help to calculate the risk of your position and the amount of money to buy CRYPTO.
For example, Bitcoin price is $40k and you see a sqeeze under the trend line. Knowing that 60% (6/10) of the time such trend lines break UP, you can divide your capital into 10 parts and buy Bitcoin for 20% of your money with a target of +25% to $50k. That way, the chance of losing your money is minimal (-1-2%) and the profit will be +5% to capital. If you have $10,000, you will earn +$500 per trade. Not bad, don't you think?
In addition, you can also use the short positions, it means to earn on the falls. To do this you:
1. have to understand the basics of trading
2. need to have a desire to study and earnr
This is a short and basic description of risk and money management principles. Trading is easy, but knowing the basics is essential.
If you still have questions how to use the RISK and MONEY management to increase your profitability - write in the comments or to the DM .
Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Always make your analysis before a trade.