Why do you NEED a diaryMy philosophy is based on simplification.
I believe that reducing a problem to its fundamental parts helps us to better interact with them, and by being fundamental, our results are maximized.
It's like fixing a room. It is no use spreading our attention to details such as the type of lamps while neglecting the underlying problem, which can be a large coat of paint or an unforgivable hole in the ceiling. If habitability could be classified in points, at the same time invested, we will earn many more points by fixing the block earlier than by reflecting on the type of light in the bulbs.
Of course everything must be dealt with, but trading has a lot of variables, and most importantly, a lot of emotionality. Investing in the stock market notably activates the limbic part of our brain, and it robs the neocortex of prominence, making it more difficult to identify problems with this emotional blindness. Therefore I think that we must minimize the variables to the most important to maximize our attention in each one of them.
But to reduce trading to the fundamentals, the person must first be analyzed to identify the root of their problems.
Does the person have adequate knowledge? Perhaps he has good technique in theory but the execution is not good, or his problem lies in the situation of keeping an open operation, something very common, since our survival instinct makes us exit the market at the minimum profit opportunity, without having Keep in mind that this profit must cover the losses we have until the next profit occurs. The reverse is also very common, people who had carried out an analysis and the price has overflowed negatively, but are unable to close the operation because they do not want to accept having lost, and finally the price continues in that direction contrary to their analysis, causing them to lose a lot more money.
As much as when going to the doctor, advancing in the trading career requires identifying what individual problems you have and applying the appropriate remedies, that is, working on the weaknesses.
For this, it is essential to review the operations at a time and draw conclusions, and for this it is essential to keep a daily trading journal, preferably in a physical notebook, of each day of operation, so that it can be reviewed each end of the trade. week and progressively correct mistakes and enhance what already works for us, to avoid committing them again and spending years going around in circles.
I personally use a physical notebook for a lifetime. I do it this way for various reasons, and although in principle it can be argued that it is much more practical to write it on a computer, with the option of uploading it to the cloud and accessing it from anywhere, each person works in a different way, and I, After trying in virtual and physical, I have decided on physical, because it works better for me personally. The reasons I have, again I stress very personal, are the following:
- I usually use the computer a lot so I always end up with a desk full of documents, shortcuts, stickers of ideas that come to mind ... keeping a diary requires discipline, and added to the fact that I am quite clueless, if I do not have a notebook There are times when I don't even remember writing it when I open the operations. However, when I have the notebook next to the computer and always in my range of vision, I never forget it.
- Writing with a pen requires more time than using a computer. I learned to type and can type at high speed on the keyboard, however writing on the notebook is much slower.
This, far from being a disadvantage, I see it as a great advantage, since as I write I have more time to reason it, so it is easier to reach conclusions as it is written and that the result has more value for later analysis.
- It is easier for me to add graphic parts to the written part. When I write when I open a trade, I always tend to draw more or less the shape of the price it has at that moment and indicate with an arrow my entry point and stop loss. This could be done on a computer and then added to the text document if it is made virtual, but it seems faster and easier to me to just stop writing and draw it.
- Writing in a physical notebook is totally private, they will never be able to sneak a virus into you and steal your information if you write it on paper.
As you can see, virtual or online is not always the best for everyone.
That said, the way I keep my journal is as follows:
- The first thing I do is write the date.
- I write the time and the market symbol of the trade I have opened, the why, and then I draw more or less the current price and the stop loss level.
- On Sunday I review every week. What I do is start with the first trading day of that week and see what the price really did. I write the newspaper in blue, and the weekly review in red: I draw in red more or less the price movement that happened after the operation.
I also write if I was right or wrong. If I was correct, I see if I could have won more and to what extent. If I have failed I analyze why. I finally draw a conclusion, if there is one, and move on to the next day. Sometimes the only conclusion is that simply the price movement has gone against and no sense can be found, so I assume it as an irreparable statistical loss.
After the page of the last day of that week, I write the date and a title with "reflections of the week", and I write again all the conclusions that I have drawn each day and then I make a final reflection on those conclusions to see if You may see a pattern of behavior or technical failure that may change for the following week.
As you can see, I am very methodical when it comes to my trading, and this has helped me greatly to polish mistakes that I could not have realized if I did not keep a journal. In the day to day of life many things happen that can distract you and sometimes keep you making very absurd mistakes, that if you had reviewed your operation a little, you would have quickly realized.
For these reasons I believe that anyone who boasts of having results in this business must realize that it is necessary and make an effort to create this habit.
1-BTC
How Much BTC Do You Need to Create Generational Wealth?Hi Tradingviewers, in this article I am going to break down this question into smaller items and try to give a concrete answer to the question: “How Much BTC Do You Need to Create Generational Wealth?”
First, we’ll have to define what ‘wealth’ means. Then we need to define how we look at the ‘generational’ part. Lastly, we also need to take into consideration long term outlooks on Bitcoin. Let’s try and put some actual numbers on this and see how much BTC you would actually need.
I’ve been on Twitter a lot lately (putting some more effort into my account!) and got inspired to answer this question as this was a very common topic on Twitter. The interesting thing is that I saw a lot of people talking about this, but nobody actually made an effort to go through the math. Without further ado, let’s dig into the numbers.
First let’s look into some options to define wealth. Using data from the World Inequality Database and Statistics Canada), it takes about $488,000 to be considered part of the top 1% in the U.S in 2019. Let’s assume that this applies to the number needed in a family/household. Let’s make ~$500,000 our first option, I’d say belonging to the top 1% in the US would be a pretty fair definition of wealth.
If we look further than the US, we can also use this same 1% methodology to define wealth on a global scale. In that case you would need at least $744,400 in combined income, investments, and personal assets according to the global wealth report from the Credit Suisse Research Institute. A slightly more ambitious goal compared to our first option but we could define this as ~$750,000.
Another option to look at wealth is to look at financial independence . My preferred way to define financial independence is to have enough wealth such that you can completely live off the dividends. A common rule used by the FIRE community (Financial Independence, Retire Early) is the 4% rule. The 4% can be summarised as a safe withdrawal rate that will not lower your total wealth over the long run. Even when there are temporary downturns in the global economy. This assumes you invest all your money in the stock market.
The median household income in the US is $61,937 per year. We could consider a passive income of the median household income as wealthy. If we divide $61,937 by 4% from the safe withdrawal rate above we get to a total of $1,548,425. So using this logic you would need roughly ~$1.5M in total assets in order to be considered wealthy.
Now, let’s discuss the generational part. Honestly, I was surprised when I found the exact definition: “ generational wealth represents assets passed down from one generation to the next. If you can leave behind a notable inheritance to your descendants, that constitutes generational wealth. These assets can include real estate, stock market investments, a business, or anything else which contains monetary value. I had somehow expected it would be something more ambitious such as that for x generations they would all have to be considered “wealthy too”.
Achieving generational wealth would then be relatively easy given method one and two. You would just need to make sure something is left of your $500,000 or $750,000 respectively. Option three even has it implied. The whole idea behind option three is to never actually spend any of your wealth, you’re simply living off the dividends.
This leaves us with the most difficult one: how much Bitcoin would you need? The first and most obvious approach is to directly calculate the amount of bitcoin that represents our different definitions of wealth given the current price. If we take a Bitcoin price of $30,000 that would give 16 bitcoin for option 1, 25 bitcoin for option 2 and 50 bitcoin for option 3.
Now let’s bring in some of the nuance. First of all if you’re expecting to live off your dividends you cannot have all of your wealth be in bitcoin itself as it doesn’t pay any dividends directly. Normally the wealth would be in the stock market or in real estate.
Also, if you assume that the value of bitcoin will keep rising you would obviously need far less bitcoin today to achieve generational wealth later. For example, Bloomberg analysts have predicted a price target of $50,000 for Bitcoin in 2021, implying a $1 trillion market cap for just this cryptocurrency. JP Morgan analysts estimate the price of Bitcoin to grow more aggressively, as they estimate a value of $650,000 by the end of 2022.
Let’s be more conservative on the date, but keep an aggressive price target for the sake of the argument here. If we take a $300,000 price target by the end of 2031 how much bitcoin would you need today to achieve generational wealth? This would give us 1.6 bitcoin for option 1 2.5 bitcoin for option 2 and 5 bitcoin for option 3. Specifically for option three it would still mean though that you would have to cash out all your crypto assets and convert them into dividend generating assets instead.
Also, with a possibility to see hyperinflation later given that 35% of all dollars in existence have been printed during the last 10 months it is questionable whether thinking of generational sustainable health should even be expressed based on dollar figures to begin with. I wouldn’t know how to express it in any other way, but am really curious to hear if anyone has good alternatives on this point.
I am really curious to hear your views on this. I used many assumptions here, how would you have approached this? Are there any flaws you see in my logic? Feel free to comment on anything, and please feel free to absolutely destroy it! I’d love to have the discussion.
Just to summarize, based on this you would need today:
16 bitcoin to be considered among the top 1% wealthiest in the US
25 bitcoin to be considered among the top 1% wealthiest in the world
50 bitcoin to achieve generational financial freedom
Trading-Guru
p.s. You might have seen a few reposts of this article as Tradingview was struggling with a faulty spam detector. The moderators kindly helped blocking and unblocking some posts. Thanks @scheplick!
EDUCATION: Head And ShouldersHello, dear subscribers!
Today we are going to consider the most reliable chart pattern - Head and Shoulders (HS). We ask you to support us with likes, it's not difficult for you and it will help us a lot. Thank you!
The Head and Sholders chart pattern is the most popular pattern and if you use it in correct way it can give you a relevant confirmation for your trades.
First of all we should understand that HS is the reversal pattern. It has a bad perfomance when it is used for the trend continuation definition.
As you can see on the chart the price was in uptrend for a long period of time.
After that two price swings formed the left shoulder and the head, but at the moment of head formation it is not understandable that it is HS pattern.
You should observe the market carefully when the price bounced off the left shoulder top level and started to form the right shoulder.
The HS formation is completed when the price reached the neck line area. This is a nice moment to short. Let's talk about the neck line. It is not obligatory should be horizontal. It can be ascending or descending in the dependence of lows levels between left shoulder and the head and the head and the right shoulder.
DISCLAMER: Information is provided only for the educational purposes and should not be used to take action in the markets.
EDUCATION: Money Flow Index (MFI)Hello, dear subscribers!
The topic of this article is Money Flow Index Strategy (MFI).
Definition
This is the oscillator type indicator, which looks like RSI, but takes in account the volume.
Thus it demonsrates not only the price momentum, but also the money volume.
It is calculated as a ratio of the positive or negtative money volume divided by the total money flow. MFI indicates the overbought and oversold conditions. The asset is overbought when its value is above 80 and oversold, when below 20.
The strategy
Let's take a look at how to execute the long positions. Initially we should make sure that the market is in global uptrend now. For this purpose we will use the 200 period SMA. If the price is above the SMA, which has a positive slope the market is in uptrend now.
The second step is the bullish hidden divergence identification. As we told in the previous education article the hidden bullish divergence with the oscillators means the uptrend continuation.
The third point of this analysis is that the asset now is in oversold zone according to MFI.
EDUCATION: Hidden Bullish DivergenceToday we consider very powerful technical analysis tool - the Divergence.
Definition
The divergence is a situation when the price change is not supported by the oscillator. There are four types of divergences:
1)Regular bullish - the price shows lower highs, while the oscillator shows higher lows
2)Hidden bullish - the price shows higher lows, while the oscillator shows lower lows (you can see on the chart)
3)Regular bearish - the price shows higher highs, while the oscillator shows the lower highs
4)Hidden bearish - the price shows lower highs, while the oscillator shows the higher highs
Divergence Trading Rules
Let's consider the market uptrend situation. If there is the hidden bullish divergence it means the uptrend continuation. In case of regular bearish divergence there is a high probability of trend reverse from uptrend to downtrend.
Another situation is when the market is in downtrend. The regular bullish divergence in this situation can be the evidence of trend reverse in the future. In case of hidden bearish divergence the downtrend will continue with high probability.
Indicators
You can search the divergences not only with Stochastic RSI. Other oscillators are also suites great here. For example, CCI, RSI, Volume oscillator, MACD and other.
EDUCATION: Scalping 3-EMA StrategyHello, dear subscribers!
Today we are going to talk about the popular 3EMA scalping strategy which is usually used on the 1-min timeframe, but we can demonstrate it only on the 15-min chart because of restrictions.
Step 1
First of all we should define that the market is in short, medium and long term uptrend. The 200EMA shows the long, 100EMA - medium and 50EMA - short trend. Consequently all the three EMAs should follow in one direction, it's slope should be strictly positive for the uptrend identifying. The uptrend is an obligatory condition for the long position execution.
Step 2
If the step 1 condition is true the next step is to identify entry points. We should enter long position when the price crossed the 50EMA from up to down, but after couple of candles crossed it again from down to up
Step 3
Take profit and stop loss identifying. You should stop loss if the price crossed the 100EMA line from up to down. Take profit setup can be different: the fixed % growth, the price and 50EMA crossover and the price and 100EMA crossover
EDUCATION: Parabolic Growth PatternHello, dear subscribers!
Today's topic is parabolic growth pattern (PGP). This pattern can be applied for the current BTC price analysis.
What is the parabolic growth pattern?
This is a price growth pattern which is formed by the sequence of the bases and price pumps. The base is the price consolidation period after the price growth period.
How to draw it?
The main rule for PGP formation is that the parabola have to touch at least two points from the different bases. You can use arc to apply it on the chart.
How to analyze with PGP?
You can obtain some useful information for the price movement analysis when two bases have already formed and the third base formation is in progress. The main feature of PGP is that when the base 3 is completed the massive growth with a high probability there will be. This growth can be equal to the price change from the beginning of the formation of the parabola, but this growth is much more rapid.
After the last huge price move we should wait the pullback to the base 3 level. This pullback can be sharp or smooth but it is inevitable.
EDUCATION: Ascending TriangleHello, dear subscribers!
Today we will talk about the most popular chart pattern - the ascending triangle. This is commonly known bullish pattern and its correct recognition will help you to earn money.
How to identify the Ascending Triangle?
First of all we should clearly understand that the price now is in global uptrend. The socond one is the uptrend support line. There are should be at least three attempts to break this line down. The last component of the ascending tringle formation is the horizontal resistance line.
How to trade with the ascending triangle?
If the ascending triangle pattern is formed you should identify the breakout point. It is the most difficult part of the analysis because the ideal triangle pattern is rare. We have to find some confirmation of the uptrend continuation with another indicators.
The last question is how to set the take profit. It is usually used the triangle height for the take profit setup.
EDUCATION: Fibonacci Extensions Hello, dear subscribers!
The topic of this article is Fibonacci Extensions.
What is Fibonacci Extensions?
This indicator demonstrates the hidden potential resistance levels for the uptrend and support levels for the downtrend. Here is as example of the uptrend Fib Extensions.
Let's make a reservation right away that the Fibonacci Extensions is not the same as Fibonacci Retracement. The second one is usually used for the pullback levels definition after a huge dump, but not for the potential targets of the uptrend.
How to define the Fibonacci Extensions?
For the levels definition we should find the lowest (point A) and highest (point B) points of the last global swing. After that we should define the lowest point of current swing and the beginnig of the uptrend (point C). The extensions are defined with the Fibonacci numbers and the corresponding levels are 23%, 38%, 50%, 61%, 78%, 100% and 161%. This levels are calculated automatically in the TradingView.
How to use Fibonacci levels?
As you can see on the chart these levels are usually associated with the difficulties for the price to break it through. These are resistance levels and if some of these levels is broken by the price it is likely to see the next Fib level. For example, now the BTC price is testing the 161% Fib level and if it break this level confidently the next price target could corresponds to the next Fib extensions level.
EDUCATION: Engulfing Candlestick PatternHello, dear subscribers!
The topic of this article is the Engulfing candlestick pattern. To be honest the candlestick patterns are almost useless if you use only this. But this is a great trend confirmation, so we will consider engulfing pattern with the Alligator Indicator which was described in one of the previous articles.
What is Engulfing Pattern?
The Engulfing Pattern can be bullish and bearish. The bullish one is the situation when the red candle is engulfed by the next green candle. It is not important if the candleweak was engulfed too or not. This is a subject for thought. Also it does not mean if the only one green candle or two consecutive candles absorbed the previous red candle.
The bearish Engulfing candlestick formation is exactly the opposite situation.
The Strategy
You can search by yourself the ehgulfing patterns on the chart and notice that it generate a lot of fake signals, it means that we should use the indicator for the trend definition. In our example we use the Alligator indicator to do it. As you already know the Alligator has two phases - the sleeping and feeding time. If the sleeping time is over the jaw, teeth and lips of the Alligator become wider. At this point we should find the Engulfing formation to confirm the new trend. You should enter a long position at the point which you can see on the chart.
CME Cheat Sheet 2021CME Group Futures Dates:
Dec 2020 BTCZ20 16 Dec 2019 > 24 Dec 2020 Settlement: 28 Dec 2020 -
Jan 2021 BTCF21 03 Aug 2020 > 29 Jan 2021 Settlement: 01 Feb 2021 -
Feb 2021 BTCG21 31 Aug 2020 > 26 Feb 2021 Settlement: 01 Mar 2021 -
Mar 2021 BTCH21 28 Sep 2020 > 26 Mar 2021 Settlement: 29 Mar 2021 -
Apr 2021 BTCJ21 02 Nov 2020 > 30 Apr 2021 Settlement: 03 May 2021 -
May 2021 BTCK21 30 Nov 2020 > 28 May 2021 Settlement: 01 Jun 2021 -
Jun 2021 BTCM21 28 Dec 2020 > 25 Jun 2021 Settlement: 28 Jun 2021 -
Dec 2021 BTCZ21 30 Dec 2019 > 31 Dec 2021 Settlement: 03 Jan 2022 -
Dec 2022 BTCZ22 28 Dec 2020 > 30 Dec 2022 Settlement: 03 Jan 2023 -
Source:
www.cmegroup.com
CME Bitcoin Gaps Study:
marketsscience.com
CME Futures Info:
www.cmegroup.com
CME Futures Open Interest Info:
www.cmegroup.com
Indicator To Track CME Sunday Opens:
EDUCATION: Ichimoku - Part 2Today we continue to study Ichimoku Indicator trading strategies. Last time we analysed in details the conversion, base and lagging span lines. In this article we apply Kumo cloud which is formed by Leading Spans A and B. The formulas for the calculation you can see on the chart.
The Strategy
Before considering the strategy we should understand that the Kumo cloud is projected forward for 26 periods. The simpliest version of the Ichimoku strategy employs just the Kumo cloud. We just should define the point where the Lagging Span A crossed the Span B from down to up and execute the long position.
It is also recommended to define the long positions entry points more strictly. The price should be above the Kumo cloud and the conversion line should cross the base line from down to up near the Span A and Span B crossover.
When to exit? You can exit long positions with three possible ways on your own preferences:
1)When the price crossed the Kumo
2)When the Span A crossed the Span B from up to down
3)When the conversion line crossed the base line from up to down
You should test it by yourself.
EDUCATION: Ichimoku - Part 1Hello, dear subscribers!
Today we starting the training series of the Ichimoku Indicator trading. This article is about the Ichimoku definition and the easiest trading strategy using it.
What is the Ichimoku Indicator?
This indicator consists of 4 components:
1) Conversion Line - the 9 period high - low average price, demonstrates the short term period trend. When the price above it - the market is in local uptrend.
2) Base Line - the 26 period high - low avearge. It means the same as the conversion line but in the medium term period.
3) Lagging Span - close price plotted 26 period in the past. It can be used for the trend confirmation. When the lagging span is above the price it means the strong uptrend.
4) Cumo Cloud Lines - this lines will be examined in the next education article.
Ichimoku Strategy (Conversion + Base + Lagging Span)
The first Ichimoku strategy is very easy to apply for your trading. First of all you should filter signals with the lagging span: when it is above the price - it is time for long, in opposite - for short.
When it is done you should find the point, where the conversion line crossed over the baseline from down to up and execute long position.
You can exit long the conversion line bacame lower that the base line. The additional confirmation for exiting the position is the lagging span and price crossover.
Next time we will examine the most interesting part - the Ichimoku Cloud and appropriate strategies.
Elliot Waves Complete Guide | Chapter 2.1 - "Motive Waves"Hello Traders. I hope you enjoyed chapter 1 and studied hard. If you are having a hard time understanding chapter 2, please go back to chapter 1 and study that chapter first.
Chapter 2 - Motive Waves:
2.1 Impulse, Leading Diagonal
2.2 Ending Diagonal, Truncation
2.4 Extension, Fifth Wave Extensions
------
2.1 Impulse, Leading Diagonal:
Impulse Wave
As previously discussed in chapter 1, 'Motive Waves' are subdivided into five waves. These five waves always move in the same direction of the current trend by degrees. The countertrend of wave 2 never moves beyond the beginning of wave 1 and wave 4 moves never beyond the beginning of wave 3. The impulse wave is one of the most common of wave types. In the impulse, wave 4 never overlaps with the high of wave 1. Waves 1,2,5 are themselves are what is called "motive." Also, wave 3 is NEVER the shortest wave and always an impulse
Leading Diagonal
The leading diagonal is also considered a motive wave, but not an impulse. It is a subcategory of a motive wave because it also has corrective characteristics. Wave 4 overlaps with the top of wave 1 and can be the wave 1 of an impulse or a Wave A of an ABC correction. It's structure can be seen as: 3-3,3,3,3 or 5,3,5,3,5. For the leading diagonal, wave 4 overlaps with wave 1 and has a smaller retracement than our wave 2 as shown above. It is usually followed by a wave 2 in a motive wave or by a B wave in an ABC correction.
EDUCATION: Bollinger Bands Hello, dear subscribers!
The next topic of our education is the Bollinger Band channel.
What is Bollinger Bands?
BB channel consists of three lines: the moving average of close price, the MA plus/minus 2 standard deviations. This channel defines the most likely price swings range.
How to trade with BB?
There are two different situations for the BB trading.
The first one is the trading during the consolidation phase.
You should open the long positions when the price broke the lower BB and close when it reached the centraline. The short position you can open when the price hits the higher BB and close on the centraline.
The second situation is the trend trading. According to theory the periods with low volatility are preceded by the high volatility periond. When the the volatility is low the BB channel is squeezed and it is a good time to searching for the potential trend beginning. You can use Money Flow Index or other volume-based indicators for the trend confirmation. For example, when the price hits the higher BB and the money flow index value rapidly increased it can be the evidence of potential uptrend beginning.
The most difficult and important problem of the BB trading is the trend direction definition. If the trend is defined correctly this strategy becomes very profitable.
EDUCATION: MACDHello, dear subscribers!
Today we will examine another one lagging indicator - MACD. It is very useful indicator but you need to use it carefully because usually it is just adds other indicators and can to generate a lot of fake signals.
What is MACD?
MACD consists of:
1)MACD (blue) = EMA(12) - EMA(26)
2)Signal (red) = EMA(9)
3)Histogram = MACD - Signal
The MACD line is the long EMA value substracted from fast EMA value. It shows the trend direction. If the MACD>0 the market is bullish, if MACD<0 - bearish. The difference between MACD and Signal line is the proxy of trend strength.
How to trade with MACD?
The classical approach to MACD is to search the MACD and Signal line crossovers: when the MACD crossed the signal line from down to up it is the bullish signal, in opposite case - bearish. The MACD and zero line crossover means the trend confirmation. But this approach is not good enough to make profit. As you can see on the chart it can generate fake signals or signals which are too late - the price have already grown. If you want to use only MACD, please, find really strong signals. For example, if the price demonstrated higher low and MACD - lower low, it is the hidden bullish divergence. With the further MACD and signal lines crossover it gave a really nice long signal.
Summary
1)Find the price/MACD divergence
2)Wait for the MACD and signal line crossover
3)Enter an appropriate position
4)Be careful about weak signals
5)Use MACD with other indicators as an addition confirmation sign
Elliot Waves Complete Guide | Chapter 1 - "The Overall Cycle"Hello Traders. I would like to introduce a new series of articles pertaining to the Elliot Wave theory. We are seeing higher interest in Elliot Wave theories these days but many traders and investors have a hard time grasping the foundation of Elliot Waves. I would like to finally start implementing my overall view of the basics on Elliot Waves so that investors can start understanding the many great charts we have here on TradingView. The Elliott Wave Theory is one of the best tools to describe how markets behave from both a technical and market psychology perspective. It is used to identify the end of a movement and predict where the market will turn via reversals. In combination of basic patterns, indicators, and Elliot Waves, you can have the secret recipe to a high probability, or near perfect trade.
I will be dividing the chapters as followed:
Chapter 1: The Overall Cycle
Chapter 2: Motive Waves
Chapter 3: Corrective Waves
Chapter 4: Variations of Waves
EDUCATION: Williams Alligator IndicatorHello, dear subscribers!
Today's topic is Williams Alligator (WA) Indicator, which is very important and efficient trading tool at any timeframe.
Definition
WA consists of three lines:
Jaw = Moving average with length 13 and offset 8
Teeth = Moving average with length 8 and offset 5
Lips = Moving average with length 5 and offset 3
But you can choose your own settings.
This indicator usually use for trend confirmation and works perfect with other indicators, which will be examined in next topics.
How to trade with Williams Alligator?
Alligator has 2 states: slleping and feeding time. The yellow areas demonstrate the sleeping time, when the lines are intertwined. During this period is not recommended to trade. When the lips start rapidly move down it means the downtrend start. After this the jaw starts open and the feeding time confirmed. When the red candle closed lower than all three MA lines, this is the perfect moment to entry short position. The exit condition is the crossover the lips and teeth lined, but you can do it earlier - when the price broke up the lips or teeth lines.
For the long position the opposite is true, the lips line have to rapidly move up and be above other MA lines.
Summary
1)Define the alligator sleeping time
2)Find the moment when lips line starts to move down and below other lines for short and move up and above for long
3)Wait the candle close below/above all three lines for short/long and entry position
4)Exit the position when the lips line crossed the teeth line
This indicator is also has not perfect performance in sole use, but with other indicators it can bring a great profit. We will talk about it next time.
The Most Used and Profitable Chart Patterns - Bullish PatternsHello Traders. Here, I would like to show the most commonly used and highly profitable patterns for new traders (and advanced!). There are two categories of patterns in terms of price action:
Continuation patterns
Continuation patterns are usually indications for traders to look for a signal that the price trend is likely to remain in play from a market psychology perspective. These patterns occur in the middle of a trend, hence, continuation - and once the signal has been proven, the trend will most likely resume from a probability perspective.
Reversal patterns
When the pattern signals a change in trend direction, it is known as a reversal pattern as shown in the examples. Technical analysts have long used price patterns to examine current movements and forecast future market movements by using reversal patterns. These self-fulfilling prophecies have become a thing of the past and is now used daily in everyday trading.
These patterns are the most often used patterns in the trading arena, especially in cryptocurrency trading. These patterns are often identified by many as the essentials for trading. As we can see in the diagram above, we have many different patterns to choose from and we can see these patterns on almost all timeframes if you look closely enough. I hope these bullish trading patterns become useful, as I also use these patterns on a daily basis. Part two of the series will be showing the BEARISH patterns, so please stay tuned.
***These are the patterns to memorize***
1. Symmetrical Triangle
2. Ascending Triangle
3. Bull Flag
4. Double Bottom
5. Inverse and Shoulders (Inv HnS )
6. Falling Wedge
7. Cup and Handle ( CnH )
Trade Safe!
EDUCATION: Pivot LevelsHello, dear subscribers!
Today we are going to talk about one of the most useful indicators in cryptotrading - pivot levels(points). We have already considered the lagging and leading indicators and decided that the second one is the most valuable.
Definition
Pivot levels is the leading indicator which define the potential pivot levels for the next trading period (in our example - month). The formulas for the levels calculation you can see on the picture. It is known that when the price is up of the central pivot - the market is in the uptrend, if the opposite - in the downtrend.
How to trade with pivot levels
It is great to use pivot level with some lagging indicator to confirm the entry points. This indicator can give the information about levels when the price can bounce off or reverse. You can see the points with small red arrows where the price bounced off pivot levels and went down after it - this points can be used for the short position. The green arrows demonstrate the potential price growth points. But there are also a lot of breakpoints (blue circles), to avoid the trade execution next to these point you need to use some confirmation with lagging indicator.
Summary
1)Define the trend direction
2)Open short if downtrend, long - if uptrend
3)Define the entry points next to pivots
4)Find the confirmation with some lagging indicator to avoid the pivot break points
5)Execute the trade, set the sloploss level
Good luck!
How to Use the Long/Short Positioning Tool - Full BreakdownHello Traders. This is a continuation of how to use the long/short positioning tool from our previous post. In my previous post, I talked more specifically about how we can calculate the Risk Reward Ratio ( RRR ), but here, in a visualized format, I have broken it down as best as I can so that you as the trader can understand each and every part of the tool.
This tool is one of the most important tools to use as a trader, in my honest opinion, due to it being heavily focused on how to preserve your account taking into accountability of your overall funds. Your goal in trade is to make sure you preserve your capital, and not lose it. Often more than not, traders have no idea on how to exit a trade. No matter how bad (or good) of a trade setup you may have, having a solid risk reward ratio setup is incredibly important for making sure you are taking profits and losses at the correct places.
I have separated this article into three sections as shown in the diagram above.
1. Profit Zone
2. Stop Loss Zone
3. Trade Zone (Risk Reward)
Reference: www.tradingview.com
TradingView offers plenty of great tools, but it's important to know how to use the tools. Many traders use the long/short positioning tool; however, often is misguided due to not understanding the full functionality.
For more on risk reward management posts, please check the posts below!
Financial Risk Cheat Sheet - How To Allocate Your Funds ProperlyHello traders. Here I present to you an important lesson of how we should all be allocating our funds. In the pyramid above, you can see the distribution of risky assets to low risk assets. Low risks are associated with low expected returns while high risks are associated with high expected returns. Investors who are not willing to take high risks have to be contented with lower returns and investors who want to achieve higher returns must be prepared to bear higher risks. This is life - but life is all about taking risks. As there are good stresses and bad stresses in life - there is also good risks and bad risks. Instead of simply saying what's good or bad, I like to use a term called, "calculated risks". By calculating your risks properly, you can learn to allocate your capital and exponentially grow your funds in a longer period of time if you take proper action. Think of this as the food pyramid. Too much sugar can be bad for you. But with just the right amount, it can be beneficial for you mentally.
The Investment Risk Pyramid is an asset allocation theory and I have presented it in an easy visualization in this article. Investors can use in selecting different asset classes to diversify their portfolio according to their risk tolerance and expected returns. I highly advise many to screenshot this and hang it on their walls. It can be a good daily reminder before you press the buy or sell button.
Bottom of the Pyramid: Lower Risk
The base of the pyramid contains the lowest set of risky investments. These investments that have the lowest risk, because, well, they generate the lowest rates of returns. These investments are represented by the pyramid’s wide base as low-risk investments should generally constitute the bulk of your portfolio. These investments include cash and cash equivalents, money market account and money market funds, treasury bills, certificate of deposits as well as high-rated government and corporate bonds.
Middle of the Pyramid: Medium Risk
The middle of the pyramid contains investments of a moderate risk. Although they are riskier than the assets at the bottom of the pyramid, these investments should still be r'elatively' safe as investors all around the world also like to invest into these types of assets. They are the pinnacle of how the economy runs. These investments generally offer a stable return and capital appreciation in the longer term. These investments include income stocks and growth stocks as well as mutual funds, index funds and real estate - all necessities of life in the economy.
Top of the Pyramid: Higher Risk
The top of the pyramid represents high risk investments. These investments may yield large gains but may also yield large losses. Because of their speculative nature, you should only allocate money to high-risk investments if you can afford to lose them without serious repercussions. These investments include futures, options, commodities, penny stocks as well as alternative investments like precious metals and gems, collectibles, peer-to-peer lending and cryptocurrencies.
The most important part of this lesson is how to allocate these funds. It is not bad to invest into risky assets, as long as you are making sure to allocate your funds properly by moving them down the pyramid! For more risk management articles, please check them below! Happy investing and trading!
Trade Safe.
X Force