What are True and False Break Outs ?False Break outs impose considerable loss to traders. How to recognize a false break out?
To recognize a false break out we should first learn what is a true break out? In fact,simply, Every break out which is not a true one is a false break out.
BTC in it's recent movements shows two beautiful example of false break outs. As shown on the chart, we have a dynamic resistance line with three clear rejections and two false break outs. It means before 1st break out which was 4th rejection BTC had a chance to break out the resistance but it never succeeded. Why?
A true break out has three important conditions :
1. first of all, Break out should be done by a strong high volume bullish candle and at least 50 % of body of such candle should be placed above the valid resistance.
2. A pull back to broken resistance and rotation is necessary to be sure about true break out. Please note sometime we may not see a complete pull back ( if there is a support before broken resistance) but who can accept the risk of false break out?
3. Continuation of movement in direction of break out.
As we can see, BTC in it's 4th and 5th attempts to break the line was unsuccessful even to fulfill the first condition.
Also shown on the chart is what could have been a true break out.
Although simple in concept, false break outs are headaches for some traders. What makes traders to fall in the trap of false break outs is not because of complexity of the concept ( As it is very simple ). It is about controlling emotions and psychology.
Good luck everybody.
1-BTC
Rare PUMP pattern. Look for a "Base" on BTC🚀Every trader want to catch the pumps because only in this situation you can get the highest RR. In this educational idea we will talk about pattern which help you to identify upcoming pumps. It`s a base pattern.
"Base" is consolidation pattern which is forming at the market bottom and a part of famous cup and handle pattern. "Base" is acually a copy of cup and it`s lead to PUMP✅when the price break up this pattern.
📊 Why base is important for the long traders❓ Because there is a lot of whales have enough liquidity to accumulate their position. The big volume bars at the bottom are also confirmed that whales buy ADA at the "dip"!
📊 Why the formation of the base leads to PUMP❓ As i said the base is the consolidation pattern where the big players can accumulate enough✅liquidity from scared retail traders.
🔥In the most cases the base forming at the market bottom when the biggest part of traders think that crypto continue to DUMP and sell their crypto at loss or at breakeven. But who buys this huge amount of crypto? Of course this is someone who don`t scare - the big players.
🔥Additionally, the price "compresses like a spring" in consolidation range and when the crypto break up the base the "spring uncompresses" and PUMP begin.
📊 What indicator helps to identify the base and upcoming PUMPS❓ This is a basic volume indicator. The volume growth helps you to identify the bottom. A lot of crypto sells by retail traders and the volume bars grows.
📊 What timeframes should you use to have beggiest winrate (80-90%)❓ The higher the timeframe the better, especially for beginners:
1️⃣ 4h
2️⃣ 1d
3️⃣ 1w
🚩 You need to have experience and complete scalping studying to identify PUMPS at lower timeframes (5m, 15m, 1h).
Look for the "base" on the higher timeframes then move to lower timeframes to have clear understanding of this pattern and find the best entry point. I use the trandline breakout to open a long before the pump. Maybe, you will share your tools to open a long before a pump?
🚩 Traders, do we have the base on BTC now❓ Are retail traders scared and think that BTC will fall lower? Let`s discuss it in the comment!
💻Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
What to include in your Trading RoutineMost people dive straight into trading without knowing how or why. They also don’t plan ahead.
This is why most people are unsuccessful at trading.
Having a well developed plan is KEY 🔑 to trading success!
Let’s see what in must need in trading routine:
1. Trading Journal 📝
You won’t improve without a trading journal, your whole trading routine is built around your trading journal. The time you’re trading without one is wasted time period.
2. Backtest 📌
Do it every week at least once.
Backtesting increase:
- Confidence in your strategy;
- Self-confidence to execute it;
- Discipline (when you’re confident about your strategy, you are more likely to respect it.)
Tip: Journal your backtested setups.
3. Weekly mental preparation ⏳
Write down things like:
- What are the things you want to work on.
- What are the habits you want to improve.
- What are your goals for next week.
4. Technical preparation 💡
- Make your analysis.
- Study the different price scenarios.
- Prepare your trading ideas.
You can do it weekly or daily depending on your needs.
5. Weekly performance analysis 🎭
Open the psychology section of your trading journal:
- What did you do well?
- What could have you done better?
- What lessons did you learn?
- Realization about yourself, your strategy and the market.
6. Wins and Losses analysis 🌓
- Open the charts of your trades one by one.
- Read your mistakes
- Write down at least one lesson you took from each trade.
Tip: always take a screenshot at the exact entry point of each trade. This allows you to mitigate the hindsight bias and develop your pattern recognition skills.
7. Writing ✏️
Write down your thoughts and emotions on bad days.
It helps you understand your mind and gives you clarity.
It’s a great way to focus on the process and be patient.
8. Activities outside of trading 🚴🏻♀️🚣🏻♂️
You’re going to lose motivation and belief with your trading many times, you need to have extra motivational source.
If you only rely on your trading results to feed your persistence, you ganna give up easily.
If you like this content help me grow ❤️🌱
I’d be happy you add more tips to learn from each other
Explanation | the US Federal Reserve conference is of great impoAt the Jackson Hole conference, financial markets will keenly watch if US Fed chair Jerome Powell mentions the word taper in his speech and whether US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has anything to say on the interlinkages between fiscal and monetary policy
The financial media and markets will be buzzing for the next few weeks over the Jackson Hole conference. It is an important economics conference hosted by the Kansas City Fed, one of the 12 regional Federal Reserves created by the United States government. There is a history of important policy decisions unveiled at the Jackson Hole conference with implications for world markets. Here’s a lowdown.
What is the Jackson Hole?
In 1978, Kansas City Fed started organising an economics conference, and in 1982 moved the conference location to a valley named Jackson Hole (JH) in the Wyoming state. The annual conference has been held in the last days of August for quite some time now.
What is the history behind it?
Jackson Hole started as any other economics conference. The first four conferences were on agriculture, given the importance of the sector in this part of the US. In 1982, it organised the first conference on the monetary policy theme titled ‘Monetary Policy Issues in the 1980s’.
The 1982 conference was attended by then Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker, which set a precedent of sorts as most subsequent conferences were attended by the Fed chairpersons/senior officials. In 1982, the conference was attended by eminent macroeconomists and monetary policy scholars such as James Tobin (Nobel Prize in 1985), John Taylor (of Taylor Rule), William Poole (who became head of San Francisco Fed later), and so on.
In 1989, then Fed chair Alan Greenspan also made a speech at the conference. This added to its aura as now it was not just about the attendance of the US Fed chair but also about the remarks/speeches at the conference.
As linkages between monetary policy and financial markets deepened post-1990s, market participants started tracking the Fed chair’s remarks to figure the direction of the monetary policy.
Since 1982, the conference has been held 41 times including the 2021 edition. The theme has usually been around macroeconomics, monetary policy, long-term growth and policy, including the 2021 theme on ‘Macroeconomic Policy in an Uneven Economy’.
In 1990, the conference on ‘Monetary Policy Issues in the 1990's’ had representations from the erstwhile USSR, Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia, and Bulgaria.
Gradually, the forum was attended by governors and central bankers from major advanced economies in Europe and Asia. This led to the financial markets in these respective economies tracking speeches and remarks from both global central bankers and representatives of their country’s central banks.
What makes Jackson Hole so special?
In many cases, it sets the agenda for monetary policy and shaped star economists.
The 1996 edition raised the importance of price stability. The 1999 edition highlighted the interaction of monetary policy with asset markets.
The 2005 edition was a swansong for Greenspan where his policies were praised only to be tarnished during the 2008 crisis.
The 2007 edition focused on housing and monetary policy where chair Ben Bernanke expressed confidence that the subprime housing markets are unlikely to lead to a crisis only to be proven wrong a year later.
The 2008 crisis led to increased attention on financial stability which was the theme in both the 2008 and 2009 editions.
In recent years as monetary policy has struggled to elevate inflation to the 2 percent target (for the US), there have been discussions on unconventional monetary policy (2013), designing resilient monetary policy frameworks (2016), monetary policy challenges in the next decade (both 2010 and 2020).
In 2020, Fed chair Jerome Powell released a new monetary policy framework named Average Inflation targeting which has become a major discussion point amidst the central banking research community.
The conference even catapulted the careers of economists. The name that comes to mind is that of Raghuram Rajan who had questioned the financial market developments in the Greenspan swansong edition in 2005. Rajan was dubbed a ‘luddite’ then but had the last laugh as the 2008 financial crisis engulfed the world economy.
What should we expect from the 2021 edition?
The theme of the 2021 conference is ‘Macroeconomic Policy in an Uneven Economy’. The global economy has been highly uneven due to the pandemic shock with rising inflation amidst stagnant growth prospects.
Conference watchers will keenly follow this edition as it is expected to be attended by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and Powell. This is rare as usually, the treasury secretaries do not attend the conference. Yellen is no stranger to Jackson Hole as she was the chairperson before Powell, and has been a chief speaker at the conference. If both attend and speak, it will be interesting as both the guardians of fiscal policy (Treasury) and monetary policy (Federal Reserve) will get together to provide solutions to the uneven economy.
They have to answer some big questions facing the US economy which will also impact the world economy. The foremost question is whether the fiscal and monetary stimulus will continue to remain in the US economy, and for how long.
The financial markets in emerging markets will see if Powell mentions the word taper in his speech and whether Yellen has anything to say on the interlinkages between fiscal and monetary policy.
#2 | Understanding Wave Analysis TheoryIt's a simple concept.
Impulsive wave, corrective wave, impulsive wave, corrective wave...
You may think I'm here to talk about Elliot ... (if you know him)
No.
The problem with Elliott Wave Theory is...
IT'S TOOOOO OLD.
It has a lot of problems...
The markets of 1938 aren't the same as the markets of 2022.
I'll show you an updated version...
The biggest mistake beginners make when they trade the flag pattern is
FALSE ENTRY.
Have you ever traded a flag when it breaks the trend line, then it goes straight to hit your stop loss?
Absolutely yes, one reason for this is...
YOU DIDN'T UNDERSTAND THE STRUCTURE OF THE WAVES YOU WERE LOOKING AT.
99% of beginners do rely on stupid strategies that say:
IF THE PRICE BREAKS THE TREND LINE, JUST BUUUUUY.
Because of that, they get disappointed results...
WRONG ENTRY.
WRONG STOP LOSS.
WRONG TARGET.
EVERYTHING GOES WRONG.
I highly recommend you have a basic understanding of Dow Theory and Elliot Wave Theory .
They are the structure of this updated WA version.
That will make you able to understand the upcoming ideas and analysis where I will share with you details and my strategies to trade the regular-flag properly.
If I see likes, I'll post the 3rd idea about the different types of impulsive and corrective waves.
Make sure to follow us.
Trader📈 VS Gambler🎲: who are you?Press the "like"👍 button if you find yourself at this charts.
Hi friends! Today i`ll give you 5 simple advice how to improve your trading results if you are beginner. But first of all we have to identify who you are in trading.
📊Who is a gambler? A gambler is a person in the financial markets who:
1️⃣ does not control his/her risks and can use leverage without thinking about losing capital
2️⃣ trades mainly on info occasions (someone said something somewhere in Tweeter or Reddit)
3️⃣ does not have his/her own trading strategy and style
4️⃣ wants to make money and lambo as famous influencer here and now, without even knowing how to calculate the size of the position or the ability to determine the market trend
🚩Why is gambling so dangerous? Once you have earned a lot of money and of course lose it, the gambler is trying to win back, losing more and more money. This is a condition of excessive greed.
📊Who is a trader? A trader is a person who earns by buying cryptocurrency cheaper and selling it higher (long), or by selling it higher and buying it lower (short).
🚩Why a trader can make money, but a gambler can't? The trader follows these rules:
1️⃣ knows his/her trading style and
2️⃣ knows WHEN and WHY he/she buys or sells cryptocurrencies, which means he/she has a working trading strategy
3️⃣ is not afraid to miss opportunities, because he knows that the market gives them all the time
4️⃣ gradually increases deposit and increases the size of trades step by step
5️⃣ asks more experienced traders for advice, because he wants to avoid making the same mistakes and saves his time for trading
🔥The trader grows gradually, step by step, he is interested in new approaches, adapts to the market. If you are reading this idea now, it means that you really want to improve your trading skills and you are probably not a gambler.
✅How can you switch from gambling to trading mode? It's very simple if you start to follow the trader's points:
1️⃣ Define your trading style. Who are you: a scalper, a swing or a position trader? Try different styles and understand how you trade comfortably, which one gives you more pleasure and results. Don't forget about these 2 points.
2️⃣ Create or borrow a trading strategy that suits your trading style.
📈 If you don't know how to determine your trading style and where you can get free trading strategy, leave the comment or DM. I'll give you some advice.
3️⃣ Start trading with a small deposit . This will save you from possible losses due to inexperience, but it is worth to try. For example, use $50-100 or a demo account. If you can't make money with $100, how can you make money using $10,000?
4️⃣ Get in touch with newbies like you and share your trades. This is what our community of more than 800 traders with different trading level allows you to do, either share your ideas in comments on trading view or post your ideas and test their success over time.
🚩Of course, perfect trading only happens in a picture. Catching a stop loss because of your own mistake is a common thing both for an advanced trader and a beginner, but you have to work on your mistakes. 1 out of the 5 lessons in my mini-course is about typical trader's mistakes and how to fix them. Enjoy it!✅
Traders, what would you add to the traders` list to improve trading skills? Let`s discuss in the comments.
💻Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
BTCUSDT - read to people with IQ over 100🧠
To begin with, you don’t see all this, because you rested on your indicators, on the thoughts of opinion leaders who themselves don’t really understand anything about trading and earn only on you.
On this platform, I have a lot of ideas related to numbers, check them out. It is very important for me that you guess what these or those values mean.
Try to simply see how many references to 33 leave Elon Musk and NASA, even every launch and spacewalk of an astronaut is accompanied by an impulse in one direction or another on the chart not only of BTC but also of the stock market. All this can be analyzed because it is all done for the sake of profit and the direction of the process in the right direction.
Let's start with what does 33/13 mean? This number means a new beginning, the start of something new - numerology is not a stereotyped understanding that was imposed on you so that you are not specifically interested in it, namely, from the mathematical side of Gann, Fibonacci is all numerology, all great mathematicians were numerologists, but some then the dudes who sell their courses talk about how it's all nonsense. All numbers have certain meanings that were created by ancient civilizations such as Maya.
You are wrong, the author, maybe you can add the Sumerians here?
I will attribute all astronomy, calendars, star maps, how many days in a year and hours in a day were studied thousands and thousands of years ago.
I also pointed out many examples of practicing the number 14 - directing energy towards resistance or support, balance. Which brought a large% profit, just trading from the levels that were formed by large players in the order book or there were marks on the chart. How 888 means the price goes in the opposite direction by a step more than 2%, which you can easily pick up with a stop of 0.4%, but you don’t see it. Open your eyes, wake up and for God's sake stop reading and listening to the opinions of those who direct the crowd, because that's how they cut you like hamsters.
in plotting I used arc system and degree system, you can find all the information on this great platform. The bottom line is to take trend lines and draw lines along them using cycles in parallel. In general, you can see this on the chart.
a similar system can be applied to any liquid instrument such as the stock market, raw materials, gold, metals, indices, currency pairs, etc. Even on low-liquid shieldcoins. Depends on your imagination and understanding of the process.
Notice how cycle 333 indicates the next BTC low or high. Subscribe here a lot of interesting things, like the idea
When is the perfect time to participate in Launchpads?Hi friends! No, the best place is not BTC`s ATH but why a lot of hype around it exactly there? In this idea i will explain you where it`s better participate in ICO, IEO to get the profit during the bull run.
Fewer of the most experienced make money in the market, and the majority always lose in the end. A common example is Doge millionaires who lose their money in a few days on a Bitcoin dump.
Why it's worth it to participate in lanchpads at the beginning of the Bitcoin bull market:
1. all altcoins follow Bitcoin and will grow till BTC grow. Yes, Bitcoin outperforms alts in short terms at the beginning, but they make good profits during altseasons. Often there are 2-3 such altseasons. By the way, if you are interested to know how to determine the best place to buy altcoins - write me in the comments, I will make an educational idea for you.
2. If the lunchpad was unsuccessful and you get a loss, during the BTC bull market the price of alt return at least to you entry point . As long as the loss isn't fixed, it's not a loss, so you can wait for a return to the entry point and come out at break even or in profit. That way you will save your money because you bought alts at the beginning of bull market.
For example, let's take the coins from the Binance Launchpad in 2020 when the bullmarket just begin:
1. WRX +9700% to its peak (ATH). At hte beginning you even can gea a loss. but after had amazing return.
2. SAND +11300%
3. AXS +112670%
I don't think it's worth adding anything.
Why are lunchpads almost no profitable at ATH:
1. a lot of hype around the new launchpads , people feel extreme greed. You know, that 90% of traders are not profitable. Majority will not earn because the majority can`t be the professionals.
2. after lunchpads at crypto market highs, altcoins don't grow so high. If you bought any altcoin when Bitcoin was $4-5 or $10k, you would have made more money than on popular lunchpads. This only works if you don't have a strategy for trading Bitcoin futures trading during a bull market, when you are increasing just the number of Bitcoins. Then you can make much more money than on altcoins.
But if you prefer Altcoins, you can not only fail to earn, but also lose a lot of money, as most of traders, who bought crypto when Bitcoin was above 50-60 thousands, did.
To give you an example, let's take the lunchpads on Binance for the then popular Game-Fi projects on ATH:
1. DAR - up 35% and down 91%
2. MBOX - after growing by 130%, it fell by 95%.
Is this the kind of profit you want to make? The fairy tale about 100x is definitely not here.
Summing up, it's better to take part in several Lunchpads at Bitcoin's "bottom" and get 1000% or at least break-even, than to participate at ATH and get a loss of 95%.
It`s worth to say that only 1 out of 100 coins/crypto have a some value, another one made for collecting money from the crypto newbees. Our aim is to buy low and sell high. That`s all.
Check the idea about when it`s better to come to a crypto market and crypto trading. This idea give you a clear understanding about why you are at the rights place now!
I will explain you where is the best place to buy ALT`s in the next educational ideas! Cheers!
💻Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
The Role of Patience in Swing Trading.I have been actively trading the market since 2019 without doing stupid things (only minor mistakes). Before 2019 I was trying to get rich fast, and of course, that didn't go well.
One of the things I have been doing since 2019 was writing principles or key ideas regarding my trading journey. That includes significant mistakes or things I noticed about the fundamental laws behind price movements.
One of those principles is patience. I would put this principle in my top 5 definitely (and I have more than 40 principles I have written since 2019)
The principle: Whenever the market is not providing evident opportunities, DO NOT TRADE! Be aware that you will get anxious because of the lack of executions. However, remember that history has shown you that not trading during those periods was always the best thing to do.
-------------------------------------------
Let's expand the previous principle.
I have realized that you can not force the market to provide opportunities, and sometimes the market will not provide opportunities for extended periods (months). The first time this happened to me, I started getting anxious because I thought I was missing something, and I executed a lot of low-quality setups, of course, that finished in an absolute mess.
That kind of behavior didn't happen once to me, but several times. And my conclusion always was that if the market is not providing clear opportunities, it was always best not to trade. In other words, I would have been better without executing setups. So, at one point, I asked myself. "How many more times do I need to experience this to understand that I should not trade if the market is not following the filters I have defined?". And in 2019, I decided that would be the last one.
I'm writing about this because I didn't have a lot of executions lately, and I can feel that anxiety telling me, "DO SOMETHING, just trade." And at this stage I'm currently in, I do not follow those feelings anymore, but I keep following my trading plan.
-------------------------------------------
Let me explain how this applies to two assets I like trading, SP500, and Bitcoin.
On Bitcoin , I'm interested in developing bullish setups, and my filters are the ones you can see in the following image. However, if the price does not move as expected, I will not trade. And not trading is tricky because of the anxiety I explained to you before.
On the other hand, we have S&P500 . Similar to BTC, the price has been falling, and I expect bullish opportunities to come. However, I will not risk one dollar until I see the current descending channel broken.
-------------------------------------------
Lets Recap:
As a swing trader, developing your patience and waiting for the best opportunities without trading in the meantime will save you a lot of money. Remember that you can not force the market to provide you with opportunities; you can only be ready to take action when those opportunities come.
I hope this concept was useful. I mainly wrote this for myself, like a journal. If you have any concepts you would like to share in the comments; it's always a pleasure to read your ideas. Have a great day!
📊BTC and FED RATE: is it better to hike? Crypto mythbusters!Some experts use such rules as hiking rate = bear market and falling rate = bull market but if we compare the fed rate with the BTC price we can see that the price is not always follow this rule. Trully say in most cases it don`t.
Let's dive deeper into it!
______________
📊THE BULL MARKETS:
1️⃣ 2015-2017 – the rate is growing.
2️⃣ 2018-2019 - the rate isn`t growing but still high.
3️⃣ 2020-2021 - the rate is 0 and market is growing.
In 2 out of 3 cases the market is growing when the rate is high.
At the end if we compare two Bull markets of 2017 and 2021 there is more massive and longer growth was at 2017 when the rate was hicking.
______________
📊THE BEAR MARKETS:
1️⃣ 2017-2018 - the rate is growing and market is falling. Actually, it can happen because of the lack of buyers. It was the biggest BTC bullrun so the hicking rate is not the main reason.
2️⃣ 2019-2020 - the rate is falling and price is falling too.
3️⃣ 2021-2022 - the rate is growing but the price is falling.
In 2 out of 3 cases the hicking of the rate push the price lower but as we have already identified the 1st bear market of 2017-2018 had to happen after the biggest bull market.
🚩Why the market can fall this time? We had the case of Do Kwon and Luna, UST. Additionally, the stock market push the price of crypto lower. This 2 thing caused the extreme fear at the market and forced retail traders to sell.
🏁Finally, we can say that this pattern is unclear and in most cases work against the rule "hicking rate = bear market".
Traders, what do you think about this patterns of the FED rate and BTC price? Maybe we need to use it with other aproaches such as inflation rate, money supply etc together to make a succesfull fundamental analysis? Write your thoughts in the comments.
💻Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
📊When you come to the crypto vs When you really need to comePush the like if you come to cryptomarket at #1 and #4 areas or write a comment if at #2, #3, #5. I bet it will be more likes. Today, i`ll explain you why you need to come at #2, #3, #5 in crypto and most of traders don`t understand it.
As you can see the yellow areas is always the "hype" area when most of the newbees are coming at the crypto market and any other markets. It`s actually not bad because more and more people discover the crypto and trading of crypto.
What is wrong with the bear market? Market is crashing, everithing is bad for short-term for hodlers. But guys, traders can open short trades using futures trading. Essential thing that is potential to earn. At the falling market it`s much less then at the BULL market.
EXAMPLE: if you open a short with x1 leverage even from ATH to the bottom it`s just: +83%, +71%, +70%. If you open the long with x1 leverage or just trade the bull market which start at white areas you can earn +350%, +1300% and it`s just about BTC.
What about the altcoins? They have unexpected % of growth. Most of them grow higher than Bitcoin. Some of them make x10, x50, x100. And it`s only at the BULL MARKETS which start at white areas.
So if you are at crypto now start to study and be ready for the next bull market. Please don't follow the majority and leave the market when everyone else does. Your time will come soon, if you prepare for it well.
💻Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
📊Bitcoin HIDEN pattern!Every pattern in trading is created by someone. Why not be the author of the pattern? If you see a succesfull price pattern, you can make a backtest and use it in your trading strategy. In this idea i`ll show you some BTC pattern which the crypto follow for 4-5 years.
This pattern is very simple. After the consolidation the price break the range and fell. After dumpo for 50-60% which is liquidated all margin long traders the price continue it`s rise for XXX%. The key thing is the consolidation for 5-12 months.
Consolidation is the price movement is the range. Price can consolidate not only inside the patterns as it shown on the chart (channel, triangle, etc.), but just inside the price range $10-12k, $18-22k etc.
How does consolidation happen? Consolidation in the price range appears because of the uncertainty of traders in which direction the price will go. When there is conditionally 50% of long traders and 50% of short traders in the market, the price can move only in a narrow range due to uncertainty.
What happens when price breaks through a consolidation? For an example of consolidation, let's imagine that price is a spring. The harder the spring is compressed, the more it bounces back. When the price breaks through the consolidation, it contracts like a "spring" and most often falls by 40-50%, as you can see on the chart.
After such a huge drop and the liquidation of all long traders, price bounces up. Since most long traders became fuel for the fall, now the short traders who wanted to make money on the fall become fuel for the growth. Now it`s the same!
Is the BTC reach the bottom and can start the growth? A lot of traders expect the DUMP to 12-14k and as we know everyone can`t earn, only prepared one.
What the price mark will be the bottom for BTC? Or BTC already there? Leave your thoughts on it in the comments!
💻Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
⌛️ Bitcoin vs. Altcoins? Which will have more power?Hello, dear TradingView members.
Here is an idea about Bitcoin and Ethereum and their Dominance.
This idea aims to talk about what will happen after the correction ahead of us in the near future.
There are four charts on this idea:
The first one is the Bitcoin weekly chart.
This chart shows that Bitcoin is on edge and pushing down.
This descending trend is confirmed by the Elliotte Waves and Fibonacci Retracements levels.
The price of Bitcoin has already pulled back from point C to D, and once again got rejected and now is continuing the correction.
Once the price gets to the solid support, it might fall even more due to psychological panic in the market.
The second chart is the Ethereum weekly chart.
This chart also shows that ETHUSDT is pushing down even more and has already crossed vital support levels.
However, four of my Fibonacci indicators show that the solid support offered on this chart is powerful and be a good level for opening long positions.
The third chart is the Bitcoin Dominance chart.
This chart shows that the liquidity in the cryptocurrency market is pouring into the Bitcoin market. This liquidity is coming from Ethereum and other altcoins.
This suggests that Bitcoin for future long positions is a better choice since it is becoming more stable than other crypto assets.
The fourth chart is the Ethereum Dominance chart.
This chart shows the liquidity exiting from the Ethereum (Mother of altcoins) market.
When this happens, it clearly means that ETH and other altcoins are becoming weak and less stable than BTC due to the low volume of liquidity and power.
To sum it up, our result is:
By breaking the Bitcoin Dominance upwards and the Ethereum Dominance breaking down, it can be concluded that bitcoin is in a better position than the altcoins.
So Bitcoin will have more growth and less decline than the market.
Moreover, we can profit more in long trades from Bitcoins and short transactions from altcoins.
In the near future after the corrections, we also use RSI to measure the accuracy of this forecast.
This correction is taking place because the market needs to fill the gap. If you need to know about Bitcoin's gaps, this chart might be helpful:
If you need to learn how RSI works, this chart might be helpful:
If you need to learn how Fibonacci works, this chart might be helpful:
I hope this idea can be helpful.
Let me know if you guys have any questions;
I will be more than happy to help.
Good luck, and thank you.
BITCOIN IS THIS BOTTOM OR JUST STARTING At the outset, I would like to inform you that I have been a big fan of the wave theory in the last five years, but in science there are no feelings and biases, as well as in markets, and also the theory has not reached the limit of idealism and some critics say that it did not reach the limits of theory, it is only a hypothesis and It has been going on for such a long time because of its many possibilities. anyway , this discussion will be as simple as possible and easy for the public to understand, even non-specialists, and from them I will present some scenarios that I see as possible to happen on the Bitcoin chart.
# The first scenario:
Have we finished the FLAT and are heading to ATH ???!!!!
I wish if the answer to this question was clear and certain , this perception takes the third place out of four, and the reason for this is the downward wave from the top of 69 to the current levels not clear five wave .
Well, according to this scenario, the end of the correction is expected at the 23k, from which we start a new bull market (remember this scenario takes the third place among the possibilities)
The second scenario:
It is a rare but possible pattern, like what happened in the Dow Jones Index in 1966, which is the expanding triangle
In the wave principle, there are four triangular patterns(Without counting the irregular top) , and the below chart shows the expanding pattern, and it may develop and change into a second type of the family of triangles. One must be careful that the triangle is one of the most difficult patterns to anticipate early, and its volatility is very high.
There may be some intellectual fanaticism on the part of some wave analyzers regarding the internal structure of waves. they assert that they be from the zigzag family, and this condition is not true
The third and fourth scenarios:
They are the most important and most likely, which is that the wave from 69 to the current price is the first corrective wave of the model and it is formed with a 3 waves structure that is very satisfactory to the rules and guidelines, anyway, the main reason for my preference for this scenario is to study time cycles (note that time cycles are more scientific and have been worked on a lot), so since we are in the A wave of the structure and this wave was 3 waves , so the possibilities will be limited to that the pattern It evolves and takes a flat or develops and takes a triangular shape and the balance tends to the triangular model due to the economic and global conditions
I know that this perception of the next movement is boring and takes the sideway character (and sorry, but your Lamborghini will be delayed this time ) and the correction may end in the first quarter of 2024, but remember the markets are not devoid of opportunities
Well, what do we gain after all this talk showing charts ??
It is very simple and here lies the strength of the wave theory, so that all the mentioned scenarios agree in the upcoming movement, which is the rise to the levels of 48-50 thousand. This wave at least gives twice the profit without using the leverage, and what do you expect to happen to the rest of the alt coins in this rally : )
I wanted to post some mysterious Fibonacci sequences for Fibonacci fans but it might take a lot of time
Anyway, a little advice from me
Life is more beautiful than the trading markets, do not be addicted to the price movement and lose the most valuable thing you have (your time) I wish luck to everyone
My greetings
10 THINGS TO DO DURING BEARISH MARKET SENTIMENT!!Hello everyone, here is my second educational post for the community. First of all, thank you so much for constantly supporting me and be with me in this whole journey. Hope you guys like this article and learn from it.
As you see the current market condition is bearish from past several months. So I was thinking that what we should do in this kind of market condition. So here is my 10 thoughts:-
1. The First and the most important thing is to ‘SURVIVE’. Number one rule is to protect your hard earned capital and always have spare cash ready to be deployed when opportunity arrives.
2. Speaking of Opportunity , learn patience and the art of doing nothing. Don’t jump on any random $ALTS that people shill as a gem. There will always be opportunities in Crypto so don’t waste your entire capital before real opportunity presents itself.
3. It is hard to accept but the Market is ruthless and doesn’t care about your any coin Fundamentals. $BTC going down will drag each and every other $ALT with it so better to accept the loss other than HODLING something just because it has solid Fundamentals.
4. Looking to buy your favourite coin just because it is already down 90% ? You’ll be delighted to know that it can go down another 90%. Most of the coins won’t survive after a Bear Market.
5. Found an $ALT that is constantly under development ? Team is really building even in harsh conditions ? The Roadmap is being followed ? The Project is generating revenue ? This is the kind of $ALT that you should look to buy once you see ‘signs’ of bottom forming. Don’t go all in on anything. Learn to DCA.
6. There are always new trends in Crypto. Learn to identify these trends and ride the hype train until it lasts. Fighting the trend will only result in you losing the opportunity.
7. The best place to invest in during a Bear Market is yourself. Learn new skills, spend time on improving yourself. Practice as much as you can and prepare yourself for the next bull market.
8. Don’t keep all your Funds in one place. Learn to diversify in everything. Don’t use a single wallet to keep all your funds, don’t deploy all your funds into a single coin.
9. There are tons of other ways in Crypto to make money. Hunt Airdrops, apply for moderator roles in new Projects, good with graphics? - start making infographics, good at researching? - tons of people on CT and many websites are looking to hire researchers. Crypto is still an evolving industry , the opportunities are abundant.
10. This is something I wished I learned sooner - Interact with people, form groups, share your knowledge. Having people around you with a similar mindset will push your growth more than you can imagine.
The last thing is to Learn from your mistakes , make notes and don’t lose hope. Stop trying to be rich overnight and start hustling.
If you think these things will help you to survive in a bearish market conditions then hit the like button.
Also, share your views in the comment section.
Thank You!
How To Analyze Any Chart From Scratch - Episode 5Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
Today we are going to go over a practical example on BTC, but you can apply the same logic / strategy on any instrument.
Feel free to ask questions or request any instrument for the next episode.
You can find the previous episodes below "Related Ideas"
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
📊Bitcoin consolidation pattern! Read the description!Hi friends, you've probably noticed that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies start to rise or fall after consolidation. In this idea I will explain why consolidations happen, how to use this in cryptocurrency market analysis and where the next ATH for Bitcoin will be.
📊What is a consolidation? Consolidation is the small price range. Unlike a bullish or bearish trend, a consolidation is the absence of a trend. As we can see from the chart after consolidations price fall or rise for amazing %. In trading it calls "become volatile".
🔸Why consolidations happen? Actually, consolidations happen because of traders sentiment. If the price don`t move in any side this is bad for most of them. As we know, the biggest part of traders earn on the huge price movements. So when the price start consolidate there are no bull or bear power and price move in the range.
🔸What happend when the price leave the consolidation range? Consolidation is like a spring. The harder you squeeze it, the more it bounces back. It's the same with the price. For example, Bitcoin starts to rise or fall a lot when it comes out of consolidation, the spring rebound, and this has happened in all the examples in Bitcoin's history.
🔸What will happen to BTC next? For more 516 days BTC price is in $29-64k consolidation range. Now we can see the largest consolidation since 2015-2016 before the price reached ATH in 2017.
📈If we follow the rule that the longer the consolidation, the bigger the fall/rise, it's actually hard to predict what will happen next. In any case, Bitcoin will not be able to grow by 5000% in the next bull cycle because of its huge capitalization, but 600-900% growth from global lows ($20-26k) is quite possible.
🚩Traders, what do you think about this pattern? What will be the next ATH for Bitcoin in the next bull cycle based on this rules? Write in the comments, let's discuss it together.
💻Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
📊Why do the trading patterns work?Hi friends! Probably all traders began their career by learning the trading patterns.
A trading pattern is a price movement pattern in a certain range. Generally there are 2 types of patterns: candlesticks (shooting star, hammer, bullish or bearish engulfing) and figures (triangles, channels, flags, head and shoulders, etc.). The number of them is constantly increasing, through the change of market, but there are up to 50 main patterns.
📊So why do the trading patterns work?
The answer is very simple - because many traders use them in trading. Imagine a traffic light with a red light🔴 According to the rules all drivers who have the same signal stand waiting for a green light✅ Here, it lights up and allows all cars to move in the right direction. It's a clear rule, not only in your country, but in all the countries in the world. The situation is the same with trading patterns.
Let's imagine that a chart is a road, and a pattern is a light. The price rises or falls and a pattern is formed. You have determined that it is a bullish pattern, such as a bullish wedge. Of course, you are waiting for the wedge to move to the upper boundary and break it up, that will be a signal to open a trade (green signal to move✅). At the same time, all the drivers (read as "traders") begin buying with you and pushing the price higher and higher.
Why do traders do this? As I said in the beginning, patterns, like the rules of the road, are learned by all traders, regardless of nationality, this is the general rule, that is why these patterns work.
📊In what cases do they not work?
As you know, most people in the market can't be right. Conventionally, if everyone opened a long and bought Bitcoins at $50,000 and the price went up to $100,000, then someone should have bought those Bitcoins from you for 100% more. If everyone held a long, there would be no one to sell and no one would make a profit in the end. That's why there are always 2 sides in trading: buyers and sellers.
With the increasing popularity of patterns, most traders and especially beginners who first study patterns began to open trades according to these rules and .... took a loss. Patterns work especially badly on the cryptocurrency market, which shows how young this market is. But why? All because most cannot be right when trading patterns, otherwise no one would make money.
📊What should I do if I trade only paterns?
I would recommend adding more rules to your trading strategy. These can be different trading tools, filters which will help you to remove "fake" signals and increase win rate. For example, trade not the triangle pattern, but its false breakout using a volume indicator:
1️⃣A false breakout in most cases shows that the price will not go in the direction of the breakout, as there are too many willing to open a trade in the direction of the price movement.
2️⃣The volume indicator will show the actual number of buy and sell orders. If the volume at a false breakdown of the lower boundary of the triangle has increased - this tells us that the price is more likely not to move down, as there is serious support there.
This is the simplest example. You can also use indicators, additional trend lines, candlestick or fundamental analysis.
💻Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
📊What is a key level? How to use it in trading? Clear tutorial!What is a key level? A key level is a price level on the chart that creates the support or resistance to the price when it falls or rises. A key level is also called an extremum.
📊There are 3 types of levels in total:
1. Resistance level — when price rises and rebounds down when it test the level.
2. Support level — when price falls and rebounds up when it test the level.
3. Mirror level — when the level is both support and resistance.
🚩How to identify the key level? As a rule, the key level may be either the price maximum (high, H) or minimum (low, L). Price maximums occur when the price moves in a trend (bearish or bullish). It is harder to identify the key levels during consolidation, because often the price simply blurs them, making false breakouts, as we can see on the Bitcoin chart. Especially often the key level is the global highs (ATH).
It can be found on any timeframe, but the higher it is (4 hours, 1 day, 1 week), the more clearly they work, because the level of 1 week may be identify by a scalper, a swing-trader or an investor, while the local levels of 1-30 minutes are only looked at by scalpers, i.e. a smaller total number of traders.
Usually, the key level is an even number: 1, 50, 100, 1000. For example, $ 50,000 for Bitcoin, $ 2,000 for Ethereum, $ 1.5 for Forex pairs.
💹Why do key levels work? It's all because the traders place their orders near these levels. To put it simply, key levels work and price reacts to them, because a large number of traders often use them. Every trader knows that when Bitcoin is falling, the level of $ 20,000 will be support for the price, because this is the level of the previous ATH, and most traders put buy orders, so the bounce of the price can be huge (10-20%).
✅How can you use a key level in trading? There are many different uses of the key level in trading, for example, trading a rebound from a level when a trader places a buy order below the level or a sell order above the level. As I said before, the more prominent the level on the chart, the stronger the price pullback, so some traders place their orders near key levels in advance to buy or sell at the best price.
Also, I use the key level on 30m-4h timeframses to identify price weakness or strength for false breakout trading. A false breakout of a key level shows that most traders are set up for a price move in the other direction.
🔥As many traders as there are ways to use the key level. My advice is to be craftier and use the key level with the rest of the technical analysis instruments, candle patterns, indicators. That way your win rate can increase significantly when different approaches are used together.
🏁Traders, how the key level helps you to identify the best entry point? Share your idea or a screenshot in the comments!
💻Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
➖ 3 Tips To Improve Decision Making/Profits While Trading CryptoTo make money trading you need to have the right strategy, make the right decisions and be patient… But there is more.
It can happen that I share with you 5 trades from which 4 are successful and 1 is not.
You go all-in into 1 trade and somehow you picked the only one that didn't go up.
Your chances were really high yet someone can make the wrong call over and over even with the right plan… Some people call it bad luck, it is not.
In such a scenario we have to look at other areas of our lives.
Trading can make big sums of money and big sums of money can change your life.
If you are not ready for change, if you cannot accept change, new money isn’t likely to able to get to you.
If in your life you are overloaded/stressed, then you will continue to pick the wrong trades.
So, to have a better chance to be guided by your intuition, your higher self, your Soul rather than a misguided ego…
Make sure to have the right mindset and be open to accepting the changes that the profits you are looking for will create in your life.
TIP#1 | GET RID OF THE OLD!
When was the last time you changed your purse/wallet?
Not your Bitcoin wallet, even though that one needs to be updated often, but your physical wallet/purse you carry around.
When was the last time you changed your closet?
How old is that jacket or blouse, how old are those jeans?
That shirt you never wear but will wear one day when the event comes…
Or worse yet, that dress that has been sitting there yet your 15 years of age are long, long gone.
In order to make room for the new, the old has to go.
This is something that I practice always and it was really hard to implement at first, not really for me, but for all those around me.
It was really hard for them to detach from the old.
I got rid of everything, even without having the money to buy the new, I completely trusted in internal guidance and got rid of everything as fast as I could. Then the money quickly materialized as soon as the necessity was created (the energy was released)… Getting rid of the old stuff opened space in my energy field for new stuff.
Just like you cannot pour liquid in a glass that's already full, if you empty the glass, something new can fit in.
Start by getting rid of all of your clothes that are 1 year or older… Regardless of what it is… And just watch the magic happen.
You can also change your phone, your car, your hairstyle, your way of walking, your exercise routine, the place you live, your friends, etc.
Anything old that goes away, the energy is released and something new can come and takes its place.
Can be the same but an upgraded version or something completely new…
You can have fun with this… Get rid of the old.
TIP #2 | FAST & LIQUID FOODS
I will explain this one in a way that is directly related to trading.
Food is heavy on the human body, especially conventional foods which is what most people consume.
The digestion process is high in energy consumption… Some people can notice becoming weak/lethargic after eating… That’s because your body needs to use tons of energy and resources to process all the ingested food.
As so much energy is used for digestion, little energy is left for all the remaining tasks that your body needs to perform for you to be at your best.
Thinking?
Goes second.
Being wealthy… Secondary as well…
Your body prioritizes processing all this food and much of today’s food is highly processed lacking enzymes which compounds the problem.
When we fast, we free up tons of energy which can, in turn, be used to heal ourselves… Once we are in good shape, in good health, this energy instead can go to other processes such as thinking, which can help you make better decisions while trading.
Now, fasting is not easy for many people so I have another solution for you.
You can start by doing “intermittent fasting”, which is basically a half-fast or even better, consume “liquid foods”.
You can liquify fruits and vegetables with a juicer or blender, pretty easy, and go on the entire weekend without eating any solid food.
You will feel GOD like on Monday. This is just a small taste of the benefits you can get, but it is a great start.
Once you start fasting for real you will understand Jesus, the Buddha, Shiva, and all the great “Ascended Masters”… You will understand them just a little bit of course, as they had many other techniques and they felt so much more but this can give you a glimpse into many feelings that not many people are experiencing at this moment.
Now, I got to write this about “liquid foods” not to mention juices and smoothies but actual superfoods that can be drunk with juice or water.
Are you aware of “superfood powders”?
There is a class of supplements called “superfoods” which are the ones I would like for you to research to improve/better your mental processes which can highly assist you in dealing with stress and so making the right choices while trading.
I will name the most basics yet powerful ones…
* Spirulina powder
* Chlorella powder
* Hemp seed powder
* Ascorbic acid (vitamin C)
* Digestive enzymes
* Pre-, Pro- and Postbiotics
* Liquid minerals
Research these and start taking them on juice or water and see magic happen.
You will not only improve your trading but your entire life will be upgraded by a few levels… You might start to experience visions very quickly and other paranormal experiences if you are sensitive to the spiritual realms but this is just an extra, the physical benefits are sure to enjoyed/felt quickly as well.
TIP #3 | DEEP BREATHING WITH YOUR EYES CLOSED
Last, to finish this long article… We go to meditation.
Meditation will calm your mind.
This in turn can help you organize all of your thoughts subconsciously, you don’t have to do anything, which will let you see more clearly what it is that you really need to do next in order to get the results that you want or advanced to the next phase of your life.
My meditation is the easiest of all and the one I recommend to everybody who is just getting started and it goes like this:
1. Either just after waking up or before going to sleep, or both…
2. Close your eyes and breath deeply for 5-10 minutes.
That’s it.
If by any chance at any time you open your eyes, restart the timer and start over.
You can start with 1 minute if 5 is too much and increase little by little as you feel comfortable.
The goal is to stay in peaceful contemplation for 3-5 hours.
You can use any type of breathing you prefer.
You can breathe deeply through your nose…
Hold for a few seconds and then exhale through your nose…
Over and over until the timer beeps.
Namaste.
📊How to use the VOLUME indicator? Tutorial for traders!The volume indicator is so universal that it is used by most traders, no matter what their trading style. I will talk about the main methods of using this indicator in this idea.
📊What is the volume? A volume indicator is data from the exchange on how much cryptocurrency or shares were traded during a certain period of time. Volumes are displayed in the form of bars. The more bought and sold, the higher the bars on the indicator.
How can I use volumes?
✅Volumes show large trades, which helps to understand the sentiment of the market (bullish or bearish). In this GMT example, you can see how traders bought this coin 4 times and did not "let" the price go lower. After that, you could open a profitable trade on a breakdown of the trend line.
✅Test levels as support. The same principle as in the first example, but here there is a clear test of the level by the price. Volume growth in this case helps you to understand the strength of the buyers and open your trade!
✅False breakout is a situation in the market when the price breaks through a key level for a while and comes back under it. This pattern happens very often in the cryptocurrency market. The volumes grew, which shows a large amount of traded volume, but the price did not go higher and showed weakness, and then Bitcoin fell. Keep this pattern in mind.
✅Divergences. You can see a divergence in the Bitcoin price. Divergence is when the indicator and price values start to be different. As volumes rose, so did the price. After volumes began to fall and the price continued to rise, a divergence formed and Bitcoin fell by 50%. Divergences can be looked for in any cryptocurrency and any timeframe.
✅Indicators. Volumes are a classical indicator, on the basis of which many other well-known indicators are built: VWAP, OBV, etc.
⚙How can I add the volume indicator to the chart? You need to open "Indicators" on the top panel of TradingView and write "Volume" in the search bar. After clicking on the title, it will automatically be added to the chart.
🚩On what timeframes can I use volumes?
Volumes can be used on all timeframes, but it all depends on trading style:
1️⃣ Scalpers watch volumes on lower timeframes: 1m, 5m, 30m. In this way they can identify if the price reacts to a key level, trend line or value zone;
2️⃣ Swing traders use the indicator on timeframes from 1 hour to 1 day. By the same principle as scalpers, you can identify the reaction of other traders to a particular level. For example, Bitcoin has fallen to $50,000 and touched a key level where other traders' buy orders may have been placed. If there were really a lot of bids there, then on the volume indicator, you will see the bars rise as well as price rise. If there was no growth in the bars, it means that most likely the price will fall further.
3️⃣ Long-term traders use the indicator on timeframes from 1 day to 1 week and more. With the help of volumes on higher timeframes, you can identify large liquidation zones on exchanges, important resistance and support levels.
Friends, if you still have questions about how to use the volume indicator, write in the comments. What other methods of using this indicator do you know?
💻Press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
How did Open Interest tell me: Stay long as BTC Dumped!?!BYBIT:BTCUSD
I was in 3 long trades as Bitcoin dumped on the 26th of May 2022.
I had 2 choices. Close my longs because I saw price dumping below my entry
or
look at what Open interest was telling me to determine if this was a fakeout.
I saw price dropping as OI was dropping. This meant that longs were closing out their positions, which means that when this ended, price could reverse quickly.
Longs were closing out their positions and re-entering as shorts. As soon as this selling dried up, Longs started entering and then suddenly shorts were being liquidated, pushing the price up again.
This is known as a stop run. Hit long stops and then hit short stops. Be aware of this kind of fakeout as it happens again and again!
Learn to trade the retest and why it is important not to short at support and inversely why it is NB not to long at resistance, UNLESS you get a retest of that level!
Not financial advice, DYOR. Papertrade before using real money.
If this educational snipped helped you, please consider giving it a thumbs up and follow for more like this!
Trade Safely and Learn something every day!
Shawn