BITCOIN - Long Trade Idea - Possible Move Higher Incoming...This video follows up on the chart I posted last night, where I suggested that Bitcoin could break past its all-time highs and potentially double in value from its current levels.
This analysis is based on the AriasWave methodology, which offers a clearer perspective compared to the often-confusing Elliott Wave approach.
Check out the related idea below for the original chart, and in this video, I update that analysis with key levels to watch and potential risks to consider.
1-BTCUSD
Trading Is Not Gambling : Become A Better Trade Part IOver the last few weeks/months, I've tried to help hundreds of traders learn the difference between trading and gambling.
Trading is where you take measured (risk-restricted) attempts to profit from market moves.
Gambling is where you let your emotions and GREED overtake your risk management decisions - going to BIG WINS on every trade.
I think of gambling in the stock market as a person who continually looks for the big 50% to 150%++ gains on options every day. Someone who will pass up the 20%, 30%, and 40% profits and "let it ride to HERO or ZERO" on most trades.
That's not trading. That's flat-out GAMBLING.
I'm going to start a new series of training videos to try to help you understand how trading operates and how you need to learn to protect capital while taking strategic opportunities for profits and growth.
This is not going to be some dumbed-down example of how to trade. I'm going to try to explain the DOs and DO N'Ts of trading vs. gambling.
If you want to be a gambler - then get used to being broke most of the time.
I'll work on this video's subsequent parts later today and this week.
I hope this helps. At least it is a starting point for what I want to teach all of you.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-19-25 : Top PatternToday's Top pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to rally up to resistance, then form a peak/top in price, and then roll over a bit.
After yesterday's fairly consolidated price range, I believe the SPY/QQQ may rally through most of the day and move into the topping pattern near the end of today's trading day.
Overall, I believe the markets are still rolling into the Excess Phase Peak consolidation phase and that means traders need to prepare for extreme price volatility.
What is interesting is how BTCUSD is trying to rally a bit, but not finding upward momentum.
As I stated in today's video, I believe a fairly big move upward, possibly $3000 or more, in BTCUSD could happen between now and the end of this week.
This would be a perfect upward price advance into resistance that could correlate with a move h higher in the SPY/QQQ - targeting the upper level of the Consolidation Phase.
Gold and Silver have reached a "pause" level. I believe Gold and Silver will only pause for 48 to 96 hours before attempting to break higher. So, metals will still attempt to break higher into late March 2025.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-18-25 : Gap Reversal Counter-TrendFirst off, thank you for all the great comments and feedback. I really love hearing from TradingView subscribers and how my research is helping everyone find success.
Just recently, I received some DMs from viewers saying my research has been "dead on" - which is great.
One thing is for sure, the big move in Gold/Silver is just getting started.
Today's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Gap-Reversal in a Counter Trend mode. The long-term & short-term bias is currently BEARISH - so I believe the GAP Reversal will be to the upside.
Meaning, I suggest we start the day with a mild lower GAP - followed by a moderate price reversal in early trading, leading to a continued melt-up type of trend for the SPY/QQQ
Gold and Silver are likely to attempt to melt a bit higher into the TOP pattern for today. I believe this is just a temporary resistance level for metals.
Bitcoin is struggling to find upward momentum - but I believe BTCUSD still has a $3k-$5k rally left to reach the current Consolidation highs. We'll see if it breaks higher over the next 3-5 days before rolling over into a new downtrend.
Again, I really appreciate all of my followers and viewers. I want all of you to learn to see, read, and understand price action more clearly than ever before.
That's why I don't use any technical indicators on my chart. I want you to understand PRICE is the ultimate indicator.
Get some..
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Video for 3-17: GAP PotentialAs we start moving into the Excess Phase Peak pattern consolidation phase, I believe the SPY/QQQ will attempt a moderate rally for about 3-5+ days, then roll into a deep selling mode after March 21-24.
I don't believe we have reached a bottom - yet.
I do see a lot of people talking about "the bottom is in" and I urge all of you to THINK.
What do you believe will be the basis of US and GLOBAL economic growth starting RIGHT NOW?
Can you name one thing that will be the driver of economic expansion and activity?
I can't either.
Thus, I suggest traders prepare for more sideways consolidation range trading over the next 60+ days as hedge assets and currencies attempt to balance risks.
BTCUSD, Gold, Silver should all be fairly quiet this week. I'm not expecting any huge price moves this week.
I expect the SPY/QQQ & BTCUSD to move a bit higher while Gold and Silver melt upward a bit further.
Then, after March 21, I expect bigger volatility and a broad rotation in the SPY/QQQ/Bitcoin where Gold/Silver will start a bigger move higher.
Get some.
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Weekly Market Analysis - 16th March 2025 (DXY, NZD, ES, BTC)This is weekly market analysis of a few pairs (DXY, NZD, ES, BTC).
I haven't done one of these in a while, but here it is!
I would have done more pairs but the video was already 30 minutes long and I went into more teaching rather than pure analysis.
I hope you found it insightful to your own trading, because what I teach is the truth of the market regardless of whatever specific strategy you use for trading.
Anything can make money in the markets, but of course, risk management and discipline rule all.
- R2F Trading
Bitcoin Reversal or Dead Cat Bounce? Here's My Trading Plan! Analyzing BTC on the higher timeframe, we observe a clear structural shift in the prevailing trend 📊. Dropping down to the 4-hour chart, there is a decisive bullish break 📈, leaving behind an imbalance following the initial move—an area that could serve as a retracement target 🎯. Notably, this imbalance aligns with a Fibonacci retracement into equilibrium 📐, adding confluence to the setup.
I am considering a long position 💰, but only if the key conditions outlined in the video materialize ✅. If those conditions fail to align, I will discard this trade idea ❌.
⚠️ Not financial advice.
btcusd on bearish retrace#BTCUSD price have multiple retest below 81k, now we await for next double rejection to sell.
If price touch 84200 then bearish retracment is active which will drop the price till 81k. Stop loss at 85196.
Above 85196 have bullish breakout which forms new buy to reach 88k-90k limit.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-14-25: Temp BottomToday's Cycle Pattern is a Temporary Bottom pattern. I suspect the markets may attempt to move a bit lower in early trading before attempting to find a new base/support level.
Yesterday's low may prove to be very important depending on what the markets do today. Initially, I thought yesterday's low was the Temporary Bottom pattern (one day early). But, I do believe the markets will continue to be volatile in early trading today and may move downward to retest lows before trying to move higher - setting up the Temporary Bottom pattern.
Gold and Silver will likely continue to melt upward unless there is some big news that disrupts the US Dollar's downward slide. I see Gold trying to rally above $3200 very quickly over the next 15+ days.
Bitcoin is still consolidating and is currently in a short upward price phase (much like the SPY/QQQ). In fact, the SPY/QQQ and Bitcoin are all in an EPP consolidation phase.
So, that means even though we may see a volatile type of price move over the next 15-30+ days, price is ultimately trapped in a consolidated price range and will/should attempt to break downward into the Ultimate Low.
Therefore, if we get a moderate pullback/rally phase over the next 5+ trading days, be aware that the rally upward will end near March 21-24 and turn downward very sharply before the end of March (based on my research).
You have lots of opportunity if this base sets up for a moderate rally in the SPY/QQQ, but play it cautiously as I don't believe we'll see new ATHs anytime soon.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade EOD Update for 3-13-25What a crazy day. The markets certainly decided to burn the longs almost all day.
I got a few messages from traders who continued trying to pick bottoms in this downtrend. FYI, that can be very dangerous.
If you are a short-term trader and are trying to pick a base/bottom all day today - you have to have a limit in terms of how much you are willing to risk within a single day.
I've seen dozens of traders blow up their accounts in a big, trending market.
Please learn from your actions. Develop a STOP POINT related to your trading decisions.
There is no reason to continue to try to execute "bounce" trades when the markets are trending as strongly as they are today.
This video should help you understand what I see as the potential over the next 5+ days.
We are still trying to hold above critical support near the 50% retracement level on the SPY.
Everything depends on what happens in DC and how the markets perceive risks.
Gold/Silver rallied very strong today. This is FEAR related to risks.
If the US government enters a shutdown, Gold and Silver could skyrocket much higher.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 3-13-25 - Fear Settling InWith the US government only about 39 hours away from a complete SHUT DOWN, I want to warn everyone that metals are doing exactly what they are supposed to do - hedge risks. While the SPY/QQQ are continuing to melt downard.
I created this video to show you the Fibonacci Trigger levels on the 60 min SPY chart, which I believe are very important. Pause the video when I show you the proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system and pay attention to the fact that any upward price trend must rally above 563.85 in order to qualify as a new Bullish price trend.
That means we need to see a very solid price reversal from recent lows or an intermediate pullback (to the upside) which will set a new lower Bullish Fibonacci trigger level.
Overall, the SPY/QQQ are in a MELT DOWN mode and I expect this to last into early next week unless the US government reaches some agreement to extend funding.
This is not the time to try to load up on Longs/Calls.
The US and global markets are very likely to MELT DOWNWARD over the next 2 to 5+ days if the US government does SHUT DOWN.
FYI.
Gold and Silver may EXPLODE HIGHER.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-13-25: Carryover PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets may attempt to continue to find support and move into a sideways pullback (upward) price channel.
I believe the markets have reached an exhaustion point that will move the SPY/QQQ slightly upward over the next 5 to 10+ days - reaching a peak near the 3-21 to 3-24 Bottoming pattern.
This bottoming pattern near March 21-24 suggests the markets will move aggressively downward near that time to identify deeper support.
I believe metals will continue to move higher as risks and fear drive assets into safe havens.
Bitcoin should continue to slide a bit higher while moving through the consolidation phase.
Watch today's video to learn more about what I do and how I help traders find the best opportunities.
Get some.
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Bitcoin - The Uptrend Remains 100% Valid!Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) can create a textbook break and retest:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Over the past couple of weeks we have only been seeing a consolidation on all cryptocurrencies, governed by the slow movement on Bitcoin. With today's drop Bitcoin is now approaching the previous all time highs, which are now acting as a major support, pushing price much higher.
Levels to watch: $70.000, $300.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 3-12-25 : Rally111 PatternToday's Rally pattern in Carryover mode may prompt a powerful base/bottom move in the SPY/QQQ.
In today's video, I explain in great detail how I read these charts and why the Excess Phase Peak (EPP) patterns are so important.
We are moving into the Consolidation Phase of the EPP patterns for the SPY/QQQ.
We are already into the Consolidation Phase of an EPP pattern for Bitcoin
Gold and Silver are a bit mixed. Yet Silver has already broken above the upper EPP Peak, rallying into a new EPP Peak level. Meanwhile, Gold is still struggling to find momentum for a bullish breakout.
While I don't believe the US markets are poised for a big downward price move, today's video shows you what may be likely 4 to 12+ months into the future.
So, pay attention to today's video. It clearly illustrates how to use the EPP patterns with Fibonacci and shows you what I believe could happen over the next 6 to 12+ months.
If the SPY/I continues to try to rally higher today, it will be interesting. This means we have potentially found our consolidation base and are now moving into a very volatile sideways consolidation phase.
Get some.
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BTC | 4H - 1W | MACRO UpdateBTC has seen a clear bearish trend in the 4h timeframe, after the cup and handle pattern failed to play out. We also notice consecutive lower lows and lower highs, a key sign of a bearish trend.
The technical indicators have turned bearish, and from a macro timeframe is shows a stairstep down may be on the cards.
The moving averages in the daily has turned bearish as we lose the 200d MA.
I hate to say it - but BTC is in full fledge bear mode 🐻
________________
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-11-25: BreakAway PatternToday's Breakaway pattern offers a fairly strong potential the SPY/QQQ will attempt to find support today. I know I've been telling everyone the markets should find support and are seeking support for the past 3+ trading days. But, the SPY has recently crossed the 50% Fibonacci pullback level and the QQQ has recently crossed the 61.8% pullback level.
These levels will act as moderate support. So, I'm urging traders to patiently wait out the early morning volatility. Today could be incredibly volatile while the markets attempt to hammer out critical support.
BTCUSD has moved to consolidation lows and will likely attempt a moderate rally up to consolidation highs.
This is another reason I believe the SPY/QQQ are attempting to base/bottom near current lows.
Gold and silver have recovered from recent lows very aggressively and are moving into a CRUSH pattern. I believe that the CRUSH pattern will resolve to the upside for metals.
At this point, I believe the markets are relatively well exhausted to the downside. But, we must let price be the ultimate dictator of trending and opportunity.
Thus, it is essential to let the markets FLUSH OUT this potential base/bottom in early trading today before getting aggressive with any trades.
Ultimately, we need to see the markets identify support in this downtrend. If we don't find any support before the end of this week, then we are going to see a very large downward price move that will invalidate many of my expectations, potentially leading to a very large breakdown in US/global markets.
Buckle up. The markets are nearing the DO or DIE phase due to how these Excess Phase Peak patterns are playing out.
I see support setting up and a base/bottom building. If I'm wrong, we'll see a continued downward price trend.
Get some.
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Heikin Ashi Trade IdeaCOINBASE:BTCUSD
In this video, I’ll be sharing my analysis of BTCUSD, using my unique Heikin Ashi strategy. I’ll walk you through the reasoning behind my trade setup and highlight key areas where I’m anticipating potential opportunities.
I’m always happy to receive any feedback.
Like, share and comment! ❤️
Thank you for watching my videos! 🙏
Its Been A Long Time Hasn't It?I see a possible horrible set up coming. But also an incredibly easy set up for the current US Administration to revert policy at a certain level.
I start to wonder if they are actually not looking at the market like they said. Its not like you need to look at the market for more than 5 minutes a day after doing a SINGLE in depth analysis on a longer time frame.
We will se what happens.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-10-25: Gap/BreakawayToday's Gap Breakaway pattern suggests the markets will attempt to gap at the open, then move into a breakaway trending phase.
Given the downward price trend currently in place, I believe the markets will gap downward, then possibly attempt to move higher as we pause above the 568 (pre-election) support level.
Ultimately, I see the markets entering a brief pause/sideways price trend (maybe 2 to 5 days) before rolling downward again into the April 14 and May 2 base/bottom patterns.
I see very little support in the markets right now - other than a potential BOUNCE setup this week and into early next week.
I'm not suggesting this bounce will be a very big bullish price reversion. My upper levels are still in the 590 to 600 area for the SPY. But I do believe the markets are likely to try to find support near the 565-575 level.
Gold and silver will move into a Harami Pattern today (sideways consolidation). I don't expect much related to a big move in metals today.
Bitcoin is still consolidating in a very wide range. I expect the next move for Bitcoin to be a bit higher over the next 3-5+ days, so I believe the SPY/QQQ may trend a bit higher for about 3-5 days.
Overall, I suggest traders stay very cautious of volatility this week. Obviously, the trend is still bearish and the current EPP phase setups suggests we are consolidating into a sideways channel before moving downward seeking the Ultimate Low patterns.
Therefore, any bounce/pause in price will be very short-lived.
Get some.
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Bitcoin at Critical Support: Technical Analysis and Trade Idea📊 Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at a critical support zone, offering potential opportunities for both counter-trend trades and short setups! 🚀 In this video, we break down Bitcoin's price action and market structure on the daily and four-hour timeframes, focusing on key areas such as liquidity zones, bearish imbalances, and Fibonacci retracement levels. Discover how to identify higher highs, higher lows, and potential trade setups for both long and short positions. 💹 Whether you're an experienced trader or just getting started, this analysis will give you the tools to navigate Bitcoin's current market dynamics with confidence. 🔄 As always, this content is for educational purposes only—trade wisely and stay safe! 💡
BITCOIN - Long Trade Idea - Entry Confirmed with a Tight Stop...In this video, I walk you through a recount using AriasWave and explain how we can set up a strong trade entry with a tight stop.
The key support level for this trade is at 86,022—if the price drops below this, the trade idea would no longer be valid.
We've already received confirmation with a break above 86,500. Stay tuned for updates, as I’ll provide further insights if the price moves above 95,065, confirming the larger pattern.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-7-24 : Rally PatternAs many of you know, I've been expecting the SPY/QQQ to find support (seeking a base/bottom) for the past 3+ days. The amount of selling has been somewhat extreme. We are currently in a downtrend.
So, my expectation of a base/bottom is related to the breakdown of the Excess Phase Peak pattern and the previous support levels (pre-election and recent lows) that suggest price will attempt to hold/base/bottom near recent support.
As of yesterday's close, price had broken downward, still within the support range.
So, again, I urge caution as I believe price will be very volatile while attempting "hammer out a base/bottom" (if it happens).
Overall, my bias is to the downside because of the current trend. Yet, The RALLY pattern today suggests we may see a recovery above 577 on the SPY which may lead to a rally targeting 580+.
Gold and Silver are holding up well and should setup a base/bottom today on the Counter-Trend Top/Resistance Pattern. I don't expect Gold and Silver to rally very strong today. I expect more of a melt-up in trend for metals.
Bitcoin is still consolidating and moving into a very tight Flag Apex range. As I pointed out in today's video, a shorter-term Flag apex will be reached on Sunday (3-9). I believe Bitcoin will become very volatile over the next 3+ days - attempting to break away from a GETTEX:13K consolidation range.
This apex volatility could drive the SPY/QQQ into extreme volatility as well.
Unless you are very skilled at targeting short-term price swings - stay very cautious of this volatility as it could end up turning and biting back.
It's Friday. I'm planning on watching and only trading when I believe there is a very clear opportunity for profits.
I got dinged around (took some lumps yesterday) trying to trade while driving and handling family issues. Lesson learned - don't force it.
The markets will settle into a trend next week. So, be prepared to sit and watch if you don't like what you see on the charts today.
Get some.
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