1-BTCUSD
Did Bitcoin top? Greetings, traders! Welcome to this BINANCE:BTCUSD market analysis, where we focus on identifying higher-probability trading opportunities.
In this video, I analyze the current narrative, highlight key trading zones, and discuss the confirmations we look for to optimize our swing entries.
If you like the breakdown, boost the idea and follow to receive more ideas.
Trade safely
Trader Leo
BTC | FRACTAL | Multi Month to Higher High?BTC has been full of surprises - but I'm not complaining.
Initially, I was following a strict Elliot Wave Theory pattern, which played out extremely well - until the price shot out above the target.
I then re-adjusted the target to just under or just over 100k, which hit shortly after. The most interesting part though, is actually Ethereum. The fact that ETH has not yet made a new ATH after the dramatic BTC high, likely tells us the bull cycle is far form over.
I've been making a few updates on ETH and Altseason, and how you use the BTC.D chart, the BTC chart and the TOTAL# together to get a clear indication of where we are at in the cycle.
I've done MANY updates using this chart, because it is such a powerful combo to use. The fact remains - we have not yet seen a new ETH ath. This raises flags (and in the best possible way) indicating that the bullish cycle is not yet over.
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BYBIT:BTCUSDT COINBASE:ETHUSD
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 1-9-25 : Behind The Scenes ResearchMany of you are following my research and Plan Your Trade videos - watching my SPY Cycle Patterns play out as the markets trade through various phases/trends.
What you do not see is the extended research and predictive modeling that go into my deeper research, which aims to help traders.
The SPY Cycle Patterns are just one part of my extensive coded solutions related to cycles/trends/phases and other market conditions. Every week, I review and research dozens of market conditions, attempting to determine the current phase, setup, and conditions related to the market and what to expect in the near future.
That is why, in many cases, I will be ahead of the trends by 2 to 5+ weeks.
You may wonder why I'm able to draw future expected price action often so accurately. This is because of my extended market research (done behind the scenes). My work is not only about the SPY Cycle Patterns - it includes many other more detailed market analyses related to key fundamentals and cycle/phase market trends/setups.
In this video, I try to share some of the extended work I do to help traders so you can better understand how all of my research/work ties together to deliver the best information I can.
In my opinion, trading is about what is likely to happen now, and attempting to identify what is likely to happen in the near future - so we can prepare and trade efficiently through any market trend.
As we take a day off to remember President Carter, I thought you might be interested to see what I actually do every day/week in terms of research and software development trying to help you learn to become a better trader.
Stay safe & get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-8-25: RALLY patternPlease take a few minutes to watch this entire video.
I spent quite a bit of time trying to explain to all of my followers why the markets are struggling to find a trend and why the volatility has been so excessive over the past 3+ months.
Simply put, the markets are trying to reprice a Trump Economy (changing from a Biden economy).
In my opinion, the new Trump economy will still be decent/good - but there will be changes and the US Fed is still trying to borrow based on past data - which traders no longer believe is going to be valid reflecting future US economic/policy actions.
Thus, yields are rising as investors demand MORE PROTECTION against unknowns.
And, THAT is one of the primary reasons why the US Dollar and Yields are really driving most of this market volatility.
Again, simply put, investors/traders are unsure of what the future US/global economy looks like (specifically with Trump suggesting he is going to "streamline" the US government/agencies, and fix the US BLOAT). To many people, that is a big unknown.
I do believe today's Rally phase in the SPY/QQQ, as well as the Rally phase in Gold, will resolve to the upside. Yesterday's move was, IMO, another "washout low".
We'll see how things play out today and see IF we get a RALLY move in the markets.
Bitcoin rolled downward right at the dual Flag levels - just as I suggested. Now we'll see Bitcoin roll back towards recent lows - trying to identify support, or break downward - targeting the $72k I suggested would be the next lower level.
Get some.
Stay ahead of these markets and remember to trade efficiently (BOOK PROFITS).
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-7-25 : Counter Trend BreakawayToday's pattern suggests the markets will move upward (counter-trend) in an attempt to move into the RALLY, RALLY, RALLY phase closing out this week's price action.
I suggest traders prepare for what may become a fairly explosive upward trend over the next few days - but stay fairly cautious as unexpected news may derail price trends a bit.
We are still moving into the early 2025 liquidity flood - where traders who pulled capital away from risks in late 2024 are starting to move back into the markets. We are also moving into Q4:2024 earnings data (in about a week or so). So there are still lots of opportunities for big trends.
I'm watching to see if the markets attempt to move to new All-Time Highs again - which I believe is a highly probable outcome.
If my research is correct, we are going to move into that RALLY, RALLY, RALLY phase very cleanly today and tomorrow.
Gold and Silver are moving higher again - which is great to see. Today is a RALLY day on my Gold Cycle Patterns. Could be a great opportunity for skilled traders in Metals this week.
Bitcoin has reached that DUAL FLAGGING zone. In other words, stay cautious at this point.
Volatility will likely increase for Bitcoin and I believe the most likely outcome will be to attempt to move back downward after reaching this dual flagging zone. We'll see what happens next.
Remember, we are just starting 2025, so you have lots of time to try to identify opportunities throughout the year. Your goal as a trader is to find the best opportunities to BOOK PROFITS. The more you are able to BOOK PROFITS, the more likely you are to GROW YOUR ACCOUNT.
Get some.
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BITCOIN UPDATE 2025 | ALTSEASON | BTC.DWe'll kick of the first analysis of the new year by taking a look at BTC, and whether or not the conditions are met to say the ATH is in.
Furthermore, let's loo at altseason by comparing the TOTAL3 chart and the Bitcoin Dominance chart. Many secrets lie in these charts if you overlap them, and look for patterns.
Soon, I will be making an update on the top Altcoins to watch in 2025 so be sure to follow so you don't miss it!
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-6-25 : Inside BreakawayToday's pre-market RIPPER RALLY somewhat invalidates the "Inside" part of any Inside Breakaway pattern. But, this rally mode in price validates what I've been suggesting for more than 3 weeks now - that the markets would settle after the new year and start to move into a rally phase before the Presidential Inauguration event.
Today's rally in metals and the SPY/QQQ suggests traders are eager to see the Q4:2024 results and are starting to PILE INTO the US equities markets after a very volatile end to 2024.
Even though 2024 was a banner year for the SPY (up over 20% YoY), December was very difficult for many traders. Aren't you glad you listened to my advice and moved to 80-85% CASH back on October 25 and avoided all this chaos?
As we start this week, I want to warn you that trades will be fairly quick in terms of "making up for lost ground". I believe quite a bit of the market's movement will take place overnight and pre-market. We'll still see some trending throughout the US regular trading session - but I believe the bigger moves will take place after hours in most cases.
Remember, foreign capital will be pouring into US assets for safety and security over the next 3-6+ months.
Gold and Silver will act as a hedge against perceived risks and I believe Gold will make a rally attempt above $2800 in early 2025. Silver.. Well, Silver is about to see an explosive move to levels above $35 in my opinion.
Bitcoin is still struggling to break away from this sideways price range. I believe the real struggle will materialize in about 24 to 48 hours as Bitcoin reaches an overlapping consolidation phase (almost like a Flag Apex). This is where I believe big volatility will hit for Bitcoin.
Get some..
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Bitcoin - Please Look At This Timeframe!Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) is still totally bullish:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Please just make sure, that you don't trust Bitcoin with its daily swings of more than -5%. Looking at the overall picture, Bitcoin is still incredibly bullish and almost trading at its all time high. Bulls are 100% in control of everything and some profit taking along the way is just normal.
Levels to watch: $70.000, $100.000, $300.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade: Learning A or B Trading StylesYesterday, after the GDP Now data hit, I received a number of messages related to my SPY Cycle Patterns and how they work in comparison to big news data (like GDP, JOBS, PMI, & Others).
Let me try to explain one simple thing to all of you.
The SPY Cycle Patterns are based on GANN/Fibonacci Time/Price cycles. They DO NOT correlate or predict price movement based on NEWS EVENTS or other extraneous data.
The SPY Cycle Patterns are, in essence, the core price expectations related to time/price cycles WITHOUT EXTERNAL NEWS EVENTS.
They represent what price is likely to do without any big news, economic data, or critical major event taking place to disrupt the Cycle Pattern.
So, it is important for traders to understand what I call the "A or B" type of trade setup.
Price is always attempting to reach new highs or new lows - ALWAYS.
Failure to reach new highs means price must roll downward and attempt to reach new lows. Failure to reach new lows means price must roll upward and attempt to reach new highs.
It is that simple.
Price is always attempting to break above previous critical highs or lows - ALWAYS.
Thus, once you understand this as a basis of price structure/movement, then you can begin to apply more advanced patterns (Fibonacci Price Theory, Excess Phase Peak Pattern, Others) as an additional layer to price structure in an attempt to understand how price dictates all trending/movement.
Now, one must also understand when price attempts to break levels (high or low), it can REJECT at those level (after breaking to new highs or lows). This is what I call a "Washout" pattern.
Rejection happens when a new low or high is reached, but the price FAILS to continue to trend in that direction. For example, if price were to reach a new higher high, then reject, this would be an example that strong resistance exists at/near the previous high level - causing price to FAIL to maintain that new high price level. Thus, I would expect price to move downward after REJECTING at the new high levels (see above).
The reason I'm trying to teach you these price concepts is because I want you to learn to make better decisions - not learn to just "follow along". You have to learn to understand price and understand how price moves related to opportunities.
That is what trading is all about - anticipating price moves because of what you are able to discover on a price chart.
Get some. Happy Friday.
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Bitcoin - It Will Reach $100.000!Bitcoin ( BITSTAMP:BTCUSD ) will break out soon:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Everything, and I literally mean everything, is bullish on Bitcoin. The previous cycles, timeframes, market structure and price action are all pointing towards the continuation of the bull run which started in 2023. And a breakout above the all time high, is the next trigger.
Levels to watch: $70.000, $100.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-2-25 : Inside Pause PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets will stall a bit after the overnight reversion move.
If you were following my research, you already knew I was expecting the markets to rally a bit over the past 3-5 trading days. But that didn't happen as the low liquidity end of year trading prompted another downside price event.
In my opinion, this was all due to a lack of market liquidity. When there is very low liquidity, the MMs can move price more easily as the number of buyers and sellers drops (creating a wider price spread). It is also the type of market environment where FLASH CRASH types of events can take place.
Now that we are into early 2025, liquidity will deepen (more active traders) and this will result in a possible reversion event (upward) in price leading to the Inauguration event (IMO).
Just like I've been suggesting over the past 2-3+ weeks.
Gold and Silver are recovering nicely. I believe Gold and Silver will move back towards their recent highs over the next 30+ days.
Bitcoin is still struggling just below $100k, but I believe the ultimate move for Bitcoin will be a retracement to the downside before finding support near $72k and then starting a bigger rally above $120k.
In 2025, I've made a commitment to do more to help more traders. I'm working on new TIMING tools to assist in developing better analysis for everyone. If this research/work plays out well, I'll try to make these new tools available to everyone.
Remember, trading is all about managing capital, expectations, and risks. If you are still struggling with your trading - follow my research and learn how to time/execute better trades.
Get some.
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Should You Buy BTC Now? Let Price Action Be Your Guide!👀👉 In this video, we take a brief analysis of Bitcoin's current price action. On the 4-hour timeframe, we observe a break in structure, raising the question: Is this a potential buying opportunity? We then drill down to the lower timeframes to look for possible confirmations, following the scenarios discussed in the video. Please note, this is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. 📉✅
BTC Bitcoin: Bullish Breakout! What's the Next Move?🚀💡 Bitcoin's breakout is here! On the 4-hour chart, BTC has surged past its structure, just as we discussed in yesterday's update. Now, all eyes are on a potential retracement into the 50-61.8% Fibonacci zone, setting the stage for a possible buying opportunity. As always, confirmation through price action is key before making any moves. Remember, this is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. 📊🔥
BTC to 124k - Quick ThoughtsBitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase and is simply waiting to expand further toward 124k.
Ideally, we’d like to see the price take out the key low first and then head toward 124k.
If the price ignores the key low and goes straight to 124k, we can be pretty sure it will retrace at that level and then look to take out the key level afterward.
2024 is a wrap - time for 2025 outlook - let's go2024 will be a memorable year
-23% gains
-Mag 7 + Semiconductors + Bitcoin all contributing nicely
-PLTR was the top performing stock in the S&P 500 (impressive 340.48%)
As always, 2024 wasn't in a straight line up, though it felt like it at times
VIX had #1 and #2 largest single day moves ever (Aug 5 and Dec 18)
April was a sticky inflation pullback month
August was a Bank of Japan deleveraging weekend scare
FED dominated the catalysts with guidance, narrative, and wait and see between employment and inflation data
2025 will bring new president, new policy, new Republican power. Many were excited about this but there are still checks and balances and markets need more reassurance than hyperbole. I plan to look at income plays and trading plays were buy and hold. Whatever I do own equities and ETFs wise, I want protection just in case the market isn't as straightforward and bullish like it has been since Oct 2022.
Happy New Year - thanks for watching!!! See you in 2025!!!
Bitcoin's Bullish Momentum Continues!Hey traders, here's an exciting update on Bitcoin! In our last analysis, we discussed how BTC was testing the critical $93,800–$94,200 level, and guess what? Bulls have delivered!"
📈 "As you can see in the updated chart, Bitcoin has surged past the $94,000 zone and is now approaching the Bullish Week level at $95,772. This shows strong buyer momentum as BTC continues to hold above key support zones."
💪 Key Observations:
1️⃣ Support Retest Held Strong:
Bitcoin successfully held the $93,800–$94,200 range, flipping it into a firm support base.
2️⃣ New Resistance Tested:
BTC is now battling with the $95,772 Bullish Week level. Clearing this level could open the door to the next key target at $96,600+, aligning with the swing highs above.
⚡ What’s Next?
"If BTC can close above $95,800, the path toward $96,600 and potentially $98,000 becomes a real possibility. However, watch for any pullbacks to retest the $94,000 zone, which should act as strong support if the bullish trend holds."
🛠️ "For now, bulls are in full control, and the momentum is clearly favoring upside action. Let us know in the comments where you think Bitcoin is heading next!"
🎥 "Don't forget to like, subscribe, and hit the notification bell for more Bitcoin trading updates!"
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Bullish
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-31: Top PatternHappy New Year Everyone,
Today's pattern is a TOP pattern. This suggests the SPY/QQQ will rally in early trading, attempting to identify a resistance level and then rolling into a TOP type of pattern.
I don't expect the markets to fall much after reaching the top/resistance level. I expect it to be more of a stalling type of price action after reaching resistance.
Gold and Silver will likely attempt to confirm a base/bottom near recent lows. I don't expect too much movement in metals today.
Bitcoin moved below recent support, then rejected back to the upside. If this support fails, Bitcoin will move strongly to the downside over the next few days.
As we move into 2025, capital will start to rush back into the markets in early January. This low-liquidity phase will end near Jan 5 through Jan 8.
Be prepared for price to attempt to revert back into normal 0.5 to 1.25% price ranges - consolidating as liquidity increases in the markets over time.
Remember, the first half of 2025 will be very volatile - so buckle up and get ready for some big price rotation in early 2025.
Get some..
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