US Election, FED Rate Cut, 1,200+ earnings - Here we go!!!It's Election Eve and I thought it was important to share how I'm positioning for the US Election and all of the craziness that it may bring.
Maybe it's all hype, maybe it's the truest test of US Democracy, maybe it's the beginning of the end. I'm not going to opine on political preference. I'm simply going to focus on current levels and what's in play.
Pullback levels for me are all pretty visually friendly with EMA combos on the Daily and Weekly charts. We are 3-4% off from recent highs, the market wasn't in love with Mag 7 earnings last week, pre-election jitters are fairly obvious, and the market will be looking for a reason to do something.
Expect volatility - and I hope it's nothing wild and crazy like Aug 1-5. I discuss the potential concern for a US Election where a winner is not declared and we wait days or longer for an official winner. Also a phenomenon is the Wednesday close for the S&P tends to show solid short-term direction, but I believe that's only if we see a winner Tuesday night for election night (just my opinion).
I'm hedged, alerts are set, it's all happening whether we like it or not. Focus on what you can control in your trading and let's figure it out.
Thanks for watching!!!
1-BTCUSD
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-4: Election Week Is HereGood morning, everyone.
This video highlights why I believe traders should stay very cautious through the early portion of this week and into next week. My research suggests the SPY & QQQ will stay somewhat range bound this week while the markets move into a SHOCK phase.
The elections are really going to take center-stage and even though I expect some reaction after the election are over - I'm not seeing any real trending opportunity in the SPY/QQQ until after November 20-25.
Thus, I suggest traders stay in a 80-85% CASH mode and trade very small allocation levels over the next 2-3 weeks. There is nothing wrong with moving into a CASH position and sitting on that cash till the market show more opportunity for profits.
Gold and Silver will struggle within a sideways range over the next 5 to 8+ days. The election event will likely drive some volatility in metals, but I see metals stalling out for at least 3-4 more days - trading in a sideways range.
Ultimately the SPY/QQQ, Gold & Silver are going to attempt to break downward - away from the Phase #3 & #4 consolidation phase. I see that as the Anomaly Event I discuss in this video.
Bitcoin appears to have already starting to break downward, away from the Phase #3 & #4 Excess Phase Peak setup. In this case, Bitcoin may be leading the global markets a bit and attempting to find the Ultimate Low over the next 2+ weeks.
Still, at this stage, the best advice I can offer is move assets to CASH and wait out the consolidation in the markets. Again, I don't see the markets moving into any real trending until after February 12-13 and possibly as late as February 20-25.
Buckle up. I think the markets are going to go into Anaphylactic Shock because of the election and post-election events.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 11-1 Update: Silver Still LeadingPlease watch this video to understand why I believe the downside risks are still dominant related to price trending.
Yes, we've seen a solid recovery today, but watching Silver and RSP, it appears the Excess Phase Peak pattern is still progressing toward a breakdown new low.
I urge all traders to stay very cautious of the risks throughout today and Monday.
The markets need to climb higher quite a bit to invalidate this pattern - and I don't see that happening before Nov 5.
Buckle up.
Get some.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For Nov 1: CRUSH PatternToday's CRUSH pattern suggests the markets may experience a very large and violent price move - likely downward.
My experience with CRUSH patterns is they are often related to the dominant trend on the Daily chart and seeing as though we are in the midst of a fairly solid rally phase (recent higher highs on almost all charts), I believe this CRUSH pattern will resolve to the downside.
Many of you know I've been predicting a very strong pullback leading into the US elections, and yesterday, we saw what may have been the start of that pullback.
Today's CRUSH pattern could carry us into very strong market selling into the end of trading today and I believe traders should have already moved assets away from the current risks in the markets.
It seems as though almost every market I review has moved into an Excess Phase Peak pattern over the past 2-3+ days.
Today, I'm looking for Gold & Silver to attempt a breakdown away from the Phase #3 consolidation of the Excess Phase Peak pattern. BTCUSD is set up almost exactly the same - looking for a breakdown.
The SPY/QQQ are moving into that consolidation phase and looking for that breakdown in price.
It's almost as if the markets are reacting to some pending event that drives uncertainty.. THE ELECTION.
Smart traders (skilled intraday traders) should be able to pull off some really great trades throughout the day. Smart Swing traders are waiting for the base/bottom (Ultimate low) and are looking to move into CALL OPTION trades as a hedge related to a post-election rally phase.
If you missed all of this over the past few weeks, today is nothing more than a panic reaction to risks. The markets will settle after the election and will likely move back into a solid bullish price trend after Nov10th or so.
Buckle up - this could be a wild day.
Get Some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 10-31: Halloween BreakdownThis short video discusses why traders need to prepare for a downward move and the eventual move into Phase #3 of the Excess Phase Peak pattern (consolidation).
I believe this consolidation phase will be very short-lived. So be aware of the continued risks to the downside.
This election has many traders concerned about pre-/post-market jitters. Bonds continue to put pressure on the debt markets, and Gold and silver are not contracting downward (as I suggested), reflecting a real panic-type trending mode.
Spend a bit of time watching my past videos. It is very impressive that you called this move 3+ weeks in advance, and I continue to believe we will see a base/bottom setup just after the election.
So, there is still a boatload of opportunities for skilled traders.
Buckle up - this move downward is likely to be very volatile.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-31 : Consolidation PatternToday's video highlights the power and simplicity of what I attempt to do for all of you.
I'm not perfect. I don't see into the future using some magic crystal ball.
I use my tools and skills to watch the markets and apply my knowledge to the charts to identify the most likely future outcome.
My SPY Cycle pattern predictions seem perfect, showing a top setting up between Oct 29-31, then rolling into a reasonably sharp market decline.
Yesterday's Excess Phase Peak pattern in Silver seemed to lead to weakness in the markets while the SPY was attempting to break through the Flag Apex pattern.
Combined, this cross-market weakness has translated into a very strong overnight selling event where the SPY is already off more than 0.50% and Gold/Silver are struggling near recent highs.
I hope viewers are learning from watching my charts and research. I try to explain things as clearly as I can and show you how to apply these techniques on your own.
As I state in this video, you can build better skills. You can improve your abilities to attempt to see into the future (a bit) and learn to apply better trading abilities. You don't have to be tied to failed techniques and indicators the rest of your life.
It just takes some patience and a lot of learning.
Anyway, I hope you see how my effort are helping you and I will continue to do my best to educate you and help you stay ahead of these market trends.
Get some...
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade EOD Update For 10-30: ConsolidationWhat an interesting day regarding how the markets reacted to the Flags and APEX setups.
My update video was perfect as we saw the market break away from the Flag Apex and trend downward almost all afternoon.
With BTCUSD moving into a Flagging formation within a potential Excess Phase Peak pattern near $72, things are about to get interesting.
Either we see the breakdown of support in the markets over the next 4-5+ days or we see support hold and the markets rally a bit higher going into the long weekend.
It's an either A or B type of scenario right now. I estimate fear and uncertainty drive the markets about 3.5 to 5.5% lower before the election.
Buckle up and prepare for real market volatility. By tomorrow's end, make sure you are protected from risk.
Beyond that, at this point, it is a wait-and-see type of situation.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : Shift Market Trends - BUCKLE UPThis update is to show you why I believe the markets have already started moving into the low-liquidity phase I have been suggesting for more than 3+ weeks. This low-liquidity phase will happen as we move closer to the US elections.
Simply put, traders are very anxious regarding the outcome of the election and the chaos that may happen after the election. Because of this, I believe many traders have already pulled capital away from the markets and are sitting on CASH.
This lack of market liquidity could present a very real risk of a FLASH-crash type of event.
So, BUCKLE UP.
Metals shifted downward (silver is leading almost all other markets with very clear patterns/setups).
BTCUSD appears to have peaked and is rolling downward.
The SPY is about to APEX into a new FLAG APEX - thus we should expect extreme volatility over the next 3+ hours of trading. Possibly leading to a strong downtrend near the end of trading today.
And, I believe all of this points to the lack of liquidity event taking shape. Moving the markets into a type of low liquidity PANIC mode (downward).
Play safe and Buckle Up!
Get some.
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BTC - NEW ATH Approaches and ALTSEASONThe first time I started talking about my outlook for BTC in 2024, was in MAY. This is the original post where I first propose the Elliot Wave theory, with a 30% multi-month correction:
It's been a painful journey that required a lot of patience - but today, I am pleased to see that the idea has payed out by 95% so far.
The play has always been a "multi-month" approach, and now it is the last push towards the new ATH which I believe to be anywhere from 82K upwards.
_________________________
OKX:BTCUSDT
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-30 : GapUp-Higher PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets will attempt to GAP higher at the open, then continue to trend upward throughout the day.
I go into great detail in this video trying to highlight the setups and constructs of price for my followers.
We are moving into a very volatile period for the markets with what I believe will be a low liquidity event taking place throughout the election. My thoughts are that liquidity will dry up later this week and early next week before the election day (we also have a Holiday on Monday).
So, if my analysis is correct, we are going to be looking for the US and global markets to clearly illustrate extreme anticipation/fear related to who the US will elect.
That should translate into extreme potential market volatility.
I urge traders to watch this video (and some of my more recent videos). Now is the time to prepare for this extreme market volatility and to learn to PULL AWAY from risks.
There is no reason to be trading like normal throughout this event. By late today or late tomorrow, you should really ask yourself "how much are you willing to risk throughout the election event and long weekend".
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 10-29 : Ripper Apex BreakoutThis short video highlights the Apex Volatility breakout in the SPY today and shows the ripper rally in Gold & Bitcoin.
If you've been following my research, you already know I called these moves many days ago.
If you are new to my videos, this is an excellent way for you to see what I do, learn from my videos, and attempt to see now my research fits into your trading style.
My single goal is to make you a better trader - and I hope I'm doing that with all the content I provide.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-29 : Gap Defender PatternToday's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Gap Defender in Counter Trend mode.
Even though I forgot to show you the pattern page in this video, today's video suggests the SPY will attempt to protect and defend yesterday's opening gap price range - possibly attempting to move a bit higher as I predicted.
With Bitcoin rallying away from the consolidation range, I see this as a "move to hedge against fear". I believe Gold and Silver could make a strong move higher as this hedging moves across all fear-base hedge assets.
Additionally, both presidential candidates support renewed legislation for Bitcoin & Cryptos in the US - so either way I believe the digital currency world is ready for US involvement.
Right now, I see the markets as trying to make a "last gasp effort" at a rally into Wednesday. Then, I believe the markets will roll into a broad contraction phase setting up just before the election as liquidity vanishes from the markets.
Price volatility should be EXTREME between Nov 1 and Nov 6.
Play the next 2 weeks very smart. Otherwise, your lumps could be painful.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Bitcoin About To Go ParabolicMartyBoots here , I have been trading for 17 years and sharing my thoughts on the crypto market.
This videos shows how Bitcoin can go parabolic and we need to watch very carefully over the next week or 2 .
For more information or any questions just send me a message
MartyBoots
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-28 : Top Resistance PatternToday's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Top Resistance pattern in Countertrend mode.
I believe this pattern will represent a moderate early topping price action in the SPY/QQQ - resolving slightly to the downside, then rolling into an upward price trend near the end of the day.
The reason I believe this to be the case is because of two factors.
A. The Countertrend mode suggests the top will actually be a moderate bottom in price (a pullback resolving as a base/bottom).
B. The continued bias for the markets is slightly upward, thus I believe the SPY/QQQ will attempt to reach new intermediate ATHs before we start to move into the pre-election downtrend.
Gold and Silver will struggle today as both appear to be consolidating in a FLAGGING formation.
Bitcoin is still consolidating in the Phase #3 sideways consolidation pattern of the Excess Phase Peak pattern.
Everything is playing out generally very well aligned to my research and cycle patterns. Last week I warned that market price would likely be very difficult in comparison to my SPY Cycle Patterns and that traders should begin to move to protect capital.
This week is the last week you have for any upside opportunities. You need to plan to protect capital (if you plan to) before the pre-election correction. I believe skilled traders will be able to move back into the strongest sectors at a 5.5 to 8.5%+ pullback just after the elections.
That is a smart move if you can pull it off.
Also, don't hold any Gold/Silver futures contracts through the 2-3+ days around the election day. Volatility will be EXTREME and unless you can take the lumps (margin calls), I don't advise anyone trying to trade metals on November 5-6. If you do, get in and get out QUICKLY.
Here we go...
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITCOIN - The Next Target: Minimum $118K...After months away from analyzing the Bitcoin chart, I revisited it and identified a straightforward count, clearing away previous complexities to better estimate Bitcoin’s next target.
Based on this count, we’re now in Wave v of Wave 5, marking the final movement in this 5-Wave sequence that began in 2008.
In this video, I’ll also cover the key levels to watch if you’re looking to trade this move higher.
Stop Level: $58,971
Target 1: $118,000
Target 2: $174,000
This is just an idea and is not investment advice. Always trade with caution.
Preparing For Pre Election Volatility - Stay Protected From RiskI wanted to highlight what I believe is the most likely 5 to 10+ day price activity and why I believe traders should immediately begin to prepare for extreme price volatility.
I believe the SPY/QQQ will move into a very moderate rally phase over the next 2 to 4 days, then peak near Oct 30-31 and shift into a very aggressive downward price trend.
That downward trend could evaporate 5.5 to 8.5%++ (possibly even resulting in a 10-14% downward price move in some of the most volatile tech sector stocks/ETFs).
Traders really need to understand the risks of holding positions through the election vs. the opportunities of CASHING out of 80-85% of your holdings and attempting to buy back into those same symbols at a 5.5 to 8.5% discount on November 6-8.
Think about it.
Why take the 6 to 10%+ risk when you don't have to.
Again, I'm trying to help you plan and prepare for what I believe is likely to happen. I could be wrong - we'll see.
But, even if I'm wrong about some of my expected ranges, you would still be able to buy back into these shares at a reasonable price no matter what happens.
Remember, a quick 6 to 10% pullback can provide a very good opportunity for skilled traders.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Why Smart Money is BEGGING for a Bitcoin Dip (Technical Analysis📈 Why Smart Money is BEGGING for a Bitcoin Dip (Technical Analysis)
MAC Strategy: Your Dip-Buying Blueprint
Monthly and weekly Moving Average Channel indicators are bullish. Here's your shopping list:
- Weekly MAC support: $59,234
- Monthly MAC support: $55,943
These aren't dips - they're gifts. When Bitcoin touches these levels, smart money moves fast.
Ducks in a Barrel Strategy Says "Load Up"
Weekly timeframe say we want to buy the dip. :
- 39 & 52 week MAs trending up and pulling away from each other (bullish momentum)
- Strong uptrend intact in spite of the several months of consolidation..
Perfect storm setup for Ducks in a Barrel:
1. Bitcoin undervalued vs gold/treasuries
2. Stochastic hits oversold at the same time
If you see a Bitcoin dip, REMEMBER: Dips are Gifts.
Stop Missing These Setups
I'll be honest - finding and catching these dips isn't rocket science, but timing is everything. Ready to level up?
- Learn how to implement rules based & non-discretionary trading to become profitable
- Learn to interpret the Commitment of Traders data to gain a major edge in the markets
- Join live market analysis sessions
- Learn my exact entry triggers
- Master risk management
DM me for more information. Serious traders only.
Trading Disclaimer
TRADING CRYPTOCURRENCIES INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change without notice. I am not a licensed financial advisor. All trading decisions and consequences are your responsibility.
Bitcoin: The Short and Long (Term) ViewI want to give a video breakdown of my last Tradingview post which did very well as an Editor's Pick. Commentors posed some very good questions that deserve detailed explanations.
First, I talk about the confluence of three major levels of Resistance that setup last week and remained the overhead Resistance of INDEX:BTCUSD Bitcoin this week (and possibly in the short term).
Finally, lest I be accused of being TOO BEARISH... my LONG TERM view (going out for the next decade and beyond) using logarithmic projections of Bitcoin price action to define the Risk and Reward of a long term (2030 and beyond) investment. When Bitcoin is a good and not-so-good value proposition.
Bitcoin - Now Is The Time For A Breakout!Bitcoin ( BITSTAMP:BTCUSD ) will exit the consolidation now:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
The only factor which is really driving the price of Bitcoin is technical analysis. And everything is pointing towards a bullish breakout above the preivous all time high and significant follow through. Make sure you somehow participate in the bullrun, either with altcoins or Bitcoin.
Levels to watch: $70.000, $100.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Bitcoin - DOUBLE TOP Weekly TimeframeA Double top in the weekly timeframe is never a good sigh - however, all is not yet lost.
One final pattern remains to be seen - and that is the Bump and Run method. Perhaps we can bump that diagonal support around 65k, retest the bulls' determination - and then make the final impulse wave up.
There is a fakeout observed on Dogecoin as well, and alts that have increased alongside BTC over the past week will likely fall pretty hard IF Bitcoin cannot keep closing ABOVE 65K.
______________________
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Understanding The Basics Of AI/Inference Engine ConstructionRecently, there has been a lot of discussion related to my SPY Cycle Patterns and how they work.
In short, without disclosing proprietary code/quants, I built an inference engine based on Fibonacci, GANN, and Tesla theories.
Part of this inference engine is to identify the highest probable outcome related to the patterns.
This is not rocket-science. This is the same process your brain does when determining when and what to trade.
The only difference is I'm doing a bunch of proprietary calculations/quants related to data and price theory in the background, then the inference engine determines the best, most likely outcome.
Take a few minutes to watch this video and try to understand the difference between static and dynamic modeling.
Again, my objective is to help as many traders as possible. My Plan Your Trade videos are my opinions based on my skills, knowledge, and proprietary modeling systems/tools.
None of my tools are 100% accurate all the time - nothing is. But, I do believe the quality of information and instructional information I provide is invaluable to most traders.
Get some.
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