What Is An Imbalance, Fair Value Gap (ICT) or Inefficiency?What Is An Imbalance, Fair Value Gap (ICT on YouTube) and/or inefficiency in price (all the same thing)
An imbalance can be defined as an imbalance between buyers and sellers. A bullish imbalance has more buyers behind it and a bearish imbalance has more sellers behind it. When you see an impulsive move to the upside or downside in the market with no wicks overlapping full-bodied candles, this is where imbalances in the market are formed. They can happen on all time frames, but easier to trade on higher ones, especially after high impact news happen.
When looking for an imbalance in the market, simply look for any candle which has a full body and look for the part of the candle that isn’t overlapped by the previous and next candles’ wicks. This signifies an imbalance in the market because there were few transactions going on between buyers and sellers. (On chart) we can see how sellers completely overpowered buyers. Wicks usually represent price oscillating up and down within the time it takes to print that candle, showing that price is efficient. So when you see a full-bodied candle with no wicks overlapping it, you’ve identified a clear imbalance in price.
Price Imbalance Is An Imbalance Between Buyers & Sellers
The reason we call it an imbalance is not only because it’s an imbalance between buyers and sellers, but because there is literally an imbalance in the market. If we have an impulsive move to the upside it’s because there are no sellers to absorb the buying pressure of the bulls (bid up). This means that there is no resistance from sellers to stop the buyers from pushing the price up extremely rapidly. On the other hand, if we have an impulsive move to the downside it’s because there are no buyers to absorb the selling pressure of the bears (bid down). This means that there is no resistance from buyers to stop the sellers from pushing the price down extremely rapidly.
Imbalances in the market can also be viewed as inefficiency in price, telling us may be banks or financial institutions involved in the aggressive movement of price we’re seeing. Again, if we think about it, most impulsive moves and imbalances in the market happen as a result of there being no liquidity in the form of orders to stop price from being met with resistance and slowing down. In an efficient market, we typically see price trade in a range of fair value for that asset where sellers sell when they perceive the price of the asset is high (premium), and buyers buy when they perceive the price as low (discount).
By doing this, it creates a high momentum move and imbalance in the market that is much like a gap in price. In some cases, this price manipulation may be a part of an institution’s plan to generate liquidity, and therefore we may see price seek to “fill” that imbalance or close that gap before pushing back into the same direction that price impulse from.
Naturally, most imbalances in the market represent inefficiency in price, and therefore there is usually a good chance that price will return to fill that imbalance (in order to make price efficient again). While this isn’t always the case (price can just continue to push away from imbalances that form in the market), we can sometimes see price seek to mitigate the imbalance, or the zone that the imbalance originated from, and therefore look to take a trade in the direction of the imbalance in order to profit off of price moving in that direction to mitigate it! Trade Smarter not Harder.
Trading Plan
What Is Leverage (in Forex trading)?Leverage allows you to potentially trade more money than you have in your current account. Your broker gives you a loan of 1:10 up to 1:50 leverage for your trading, in the U.S.A. (see chart attached).
You can change all amounts and % per trade on the chart.
Remember less leverage you put down on a trade, the higher margin (deposit or cash out of your account is needed) to place trades, yes that is how your broker protects you and them from a big huge loss by a forex trader. Also, this how you prevent margin calls from your broker from taking on to much risk.
Forex trading involves several things:
1) You account size
2) Leverage used. Higher leverage means you need less margin (broker deposit) per trade. Smaller trades you can do higher leverage with proper risk control. Higher trades you can do smaller leverage with proper risk control. Then you trade for the long-term, not just for a short period of times.
3) Required cash margin that your broker needs to hold for each trade that you are in. Protection for yourself and broker during your trade.
4) Percentage % used per trade (risk controlled by you)< Always do this on every trade that you do.
5) Lot size (you decide before any trades are done). Standard size: 1= 100,000= $10, Micro lot 1= 10,000= $1 or Mini lot 1= 1,000= 0.01 (on USD pairs)
6) Always use a STOP LOSS when trading (so you can determine, amount of risk per trade and/or lot size proper for each trade you do.)
You always want to use normally less then 5% risk per trade, so that 20 losing trades in a row does not blow your account. Risk management of your account is what will determine if you succeed or fail in forex trading. If you have a 1% or 2% per risk per trade with a 60%, 70% or higher win rate, with yes compound interest, you will see very high profits in the longer term and your forex account grow fast. The secret is leave your account alone and let it grow.
Actually, forex trading involves another ten things, which you can control are: account size, candlestick setups, entry, exit, targets, pair you trade, leverage you use, price you get in, session you trade and time you trade, lot sizes, risk per trade 1% to 5% (less is more).
Took a 2 week break after a good trading period.Came back from a trip today.
Didn't trade for the past 2 weeks. On Monday will most likely start with 0.5% risk to ease into the risk-mode decision making.
On Sunday will prepare for the week ahead and go over my trading plan.
Starting today will keep meditating to recalibrate my mind for calm and poise.
Even though trading is often advertised as an ability to trade anywhere, I personally found that it's much better to not do so. Our bodies get used to certain times of the day and session periods that we are profitable in.
Changing timezones and thus being in a different time during our session is suboptimal. Therefore, it's much better to just separate the two.
Stay tuned for trade descriptions on Monday.
On to the next one.
Lightwork_
Handling losses like a pro!Hey traders,
Ever wondered how some of the professional traders can lose tens of thousands of dollars and still not be phased? Well, today I am going to chat about how and why they have the ability to remain consistent and trust the process, and how you can do the same.
Enjoy!
Successful traders think like chess playersEvery day I get many questions from traders and more than half of them are: "What will X asset do today, will it rise or fall" or "Do you think X asset will reach Y price?"
With very few exceptions, I say "I don't know". Surely my interlocutor will think that I don't want to tell him/her or that I'm an idiot.
In fact, the correct answer is another: "I don't care"
And now, dear reader, you will think not that I am an idiot, but a complete one.
But bear with me a little more and let me explain using a real trading example on EurUsd
Let's say we consider taking a trade on this pair so, we ask ourselves what do we know about it?
1. Fundamentally the USD is favored
2. The trend is down for more than a year.
So, we want to trade in the direction of the trend and sell this pair
Looking closely at the chart we see that EurUsd is contained in a downwards channel and recently found support in the 0.99 zone.
Last week, the pair corrected and reached a high at 1.0150 and reversed exactly from the channel's resistance, leaving a nice and strong bearish engulfing on our daily chart.
Going further with our judgment, where do we want to sell this pair?
Now, considering my approach, I see a good place to sell in the 1.0030-1.0050 zone.
So we set a sell limit order in that zone (Remember, professional traders use pending orders)
We also consider at this moment the point where our bearish outlook is negated. We get 1.0150 for our stop loss.
Now, using again my personal trade, let's say we set the selling order at 1.0030, with a stop loss at 1.0150 we have a potential loss of 120 pips.
We know that every pip move on EurUsd represents 1usd for 0.01 volume, so 12usd potential loss on 0.01 trade for our trade.
Now, let's consider volumes.
What potential loss are we "comfortable" with?
For the sake of example let's say 120 USD, so a 0.1 volume.
Now let’s see where we can take profit.
0.97 zone is the falling channel's support, so there.
Looking at such a trade we have 120 pips or 120 USD potential loss with 330 pips or 330 potential profit. This gives us a close to 1:3 risk-reward ratio, a very good one.
And now, maintaining the analogy from the title is the market’s “move” turn
And the market can do only 2 things at this point: fill our pending order or not.
Considering that I don't hold pending orders after NY's close, if the market doesn't reach my level by then, I will remove the order, and tomorrow I will start over again by analyzing the market.
The second is to trigger our limit order as is also the case for my trade, and we are in a running trade now.
Now, with a trade running is again the market's move.
So, what are the possible scenarios?
1. The market rises and hits our SL. Although an undesirable scenario, we knew from the start that it’s a possibility and like every trade, this also carries a risk. We considered it and assumed it from the start and didn't trade more than we could afford to lose in a trade.
So, we take it like a stoic and move on to the next trade and market analysis
2. The lovely scenario in which EurUsd breaks 0.99 support and falls to our target.
So, our reasoning was correct and we now have a trade that brought 330usd in our pocket, but more importantly we traded disciplined with a good R: R
3. The market falls below 0.99 but reverses. Now we can also consider some action
- Move SL in BE and let the trade run
- Close half to get some money off the table and move SL into BE
- Close all trade
In conclusion:
As you can see, you don't need to be Gary Kasparov to be a good trader, the market's "moves” being in fact just a few. All you need to do is to be aware of these moves and have a plan for each of them.
This way you will not end up wondering every minute "where will EurUsd go, it will rise, it will fall", you will not trade emotionally or recklessly.
As Benjamin Franklin once said: "Those who failed to plan, plan to fail", but it is not your case, because, as a good trader you always trade with a plan and know from the beginning all that the market can do.
Best regards!
Mihai Iacob
Reminescence of a Scam Operator (ANTI SCAMMER GUIDE)Reminiscent of the roaring 1920s, the 2020 epidemic and the inability to work for many people brought an influx of new retail investors to the public market. Furthermore, the FED's decision to prop up the market by dropping interest rates combined with stimulus checks handed out by the U.S. government lured in even more investors who were hungry for profits. Although the market sensation also brought a rise of omnipresent scams across all trading platforms.
Lack of workforce, sophisticated methods, and automated bots often play into the hands of perpetrators who try to get ahead of the platform and its users. Therefore, we decided to write this concise article with the purpose of helping new investors to recognize good apples from bad ones.
The most common means of communication for criminals is to use private chat, public chat, comments, ideas, and headline references. Several examples of red flags are shown below.
RED FLAGS AND OTHER POINTS:
Asking for personal information and TradingView account information
One common tactic criminals use to exploit their victims is to ask for personal information or account information (login and password). This information should not be disclosed to anyone, including someone claiming to be a platform's employee/support (as these people tend to have access to this information).
Asking for trading account information
Another standard method bad actors use is asking for trading account information. On such occasions, a perpetrator asks for existing account information or requests a victim to create a new account; then, a perpetrator usually asks the victim to invest money into the account and let them use it in return for shared profits.
False promises
The third point probably accompanies every other point on our list. This point relates mainly to false promises about trading achievements, which often include statements about having a high win rate, high net worth, and an unbeatable trading system.
Financial gurus and lavish lifestyles
A high follower count and strong social media presence do not equal reliability. Perpetrators often portray lavish lifestyles across social media platforms to entice more people and trick them into buying a trading signal service or trading course (or any other service). The public image does not necessarily have to match a person's authentic lifestyle. Indeed, trading as a career is highly time-consuming and does not come with trading from a vicinity of a pool or ski resort; that is just public perception.
Trading signals and trading courses
Unfortunately, most of the time, trading signal services (for buy) lack performance and do not consider subscribers' risk tolerance and account sizes. In regard to trading courses, we hold a similarly low opinion of them as we think learning a skill to trade goes far beyond a few hours of any trading course.
Unrealistic win-rate claims
Most brokerages report that their retail clients lose about 50-90% of the initial capital, especially when trading CFDs. Therefore, we would like to put in perspective how realistic claims about a high win rate really are. Professional traders tend to peak at approximately a 50% win-rate over a consistent period. Thus, claims about a 90% or higher win rate are likely to be false.
Guaranteed moves and risk-free investments
Another tactic of scamming utilizes guaranteeing moves in the market. However, there is nothing like a guaranteed move since the market constantly changes and is influenced by complex factors.
These are just few points we included, however, we ask a public to share their own points in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This content serves solely educational purposes.
2 period RSI + limit ordersThe 2-period RSI is really erratic and produces a lot of signals. A lot of the signals are good, but if you're trading with one singular position, you might run into trouble pretty frequently. So, I have something for you to try.
On *any* of these candles that close with the RSI above 90% or below 10%, you'll place a trade. But it won't be a big trade. You want it to be just big enough that you'll be reasonably happy with your profits if that is indeed the reversal point, but not so big that you're afraid of a little (or a lot of) drawdown.
Both of those candles have an RSI closing above 90%. What if this continued for another 5-6 candles before dropping? You don't know what the market will do here, so you don't bet big. Your trade setup might look something like this:
The market sell might be 1.00, and each limit order might be 0.10. Maybe you have 30 limit orders, for a maximum position size of 4.00.
Ideally, you'd be closing all of them when the price reaches the next bottom on the RSI, and then you'd be reversing and starting over. Sometimes that won't happen and a higher time frame momentum move will snuff you out, so make sure you measure your risk carefully!
Sometimes none of your limits will get filled. Sometimes only a few. Sometimes all of them! You never know. The 2-period RSI gives you a pretty good location to start placing limits, though, if you prefer to keep an indicator on your charts.
Few more examples:
📖 STEP 5 to MASTER TRADING: Create a Checklist 📖
🟩 Checklist is the necessary and essential part of your trading plan 🟩
If you already have a trading plan - that’s really great. Now it’s time to take one step further and create a checklist. You will refer to it before each and every trade, and you’ll enter only if 100% of the checklist is present.
You can have different kinds of trading plan, it can have 5 or 50 pages - and it will describe your overall approach. Unfortunately, when it comes to executing your edge in the market, it’s very easy to bend your rules “just a little bit”, and all of a sudden you find yourself taking trade that is only a distant reminder of your actual trading setup.
Most traders will damage their account not because their strategy is bad but because they start to take random set up outside of their trading edge. Blowing the account usually doesn’t take more than several hours of emotional trading.
So that’s why it’s essential to have a short and clear checklist, usually up to 10 sentences usually that describes, point by point, what your trade entry looks like. You can even check every point before entering a trade (I do it). Of course, with time you’ll perfectly remember that checklist, but it’s also important to honestly follow it without checking every time, and the rule-following skill itself is a separate topic.
🟩 You're trading randomly if you don't have a checklist 🟩
Think about it. How many traders are constantly looking for “something else”, one more strategy. Instead of grinding deep into some specific concept, pattern or trading system, they will run to the next one with the first normal losses. They are running on the surfice for years instead of going deep to the core of trading - which, in my opinion, is the perfection of one strategy.
Sometimes they even find what they like and what starts to show some kind of results. But then some time passes, and after any kind of emotional stress (would it be euphoria after a winner or fear and anger after a loser), he can start to deviate from his rules. A beginner can be so emotional that he can enter random trades, one after another, in the course of a few hours, destroying a big part of his account.
There are a lot of other issues behind such inefficient behavior, however, a checklist is one of the first steps to handling it. Because if you don’t truly know what you’re looking for at the market, you’ll take the first trade you’ll find.
🟩 "Right or wrong" mentality is a fundamental flaw 🟩
You’re only right when you’re following your rules, and you’re only wrong when you take random setups. Again: even if you have a loser but you followed your setup - you're right, and even if you have crazy profit but it was a random trade - you're wrong, because this approach is not stable long-term.
Yes, traders do predict the price movements in a way, but only as a side effect of following their rules and executing their system. A trader will not be fixed on his predictions, and because he drew a box or a line, he will not expect the market to obey his colored drawings. A trader’s job is to take a setup based on his experience and testing, and he should let go of the expectations and his trade, managing on the way of course. This is a very deep question, in my opinion, and deserves a separate post later.
That’s why next time when you’ll see someone asking: “Should I buy or sell sir?”, you can surely tell the person is in the very beginning of his journey.
🟩 How to create a checklist? 🟩
Take a moment and describe in the short form how does your entry look like. What are your rules for Structure, Zones of interest, what is your entry confirmation, and what is your risk and management? I like to actually checkmark every point before each of my trades, so I’m sure I’m following my plan. Here’s an example of what my checklist looks like:
🎁Bonus for everyone still reading :) If you’re struggling with any discipline issues, ask yourself a question: “If I would receive a fully funded 100k account, for free, would I start to follow my rules and would I be more disciplined than I am now, and would I start “trading the right way” at last?” Try to be honest with yourself.
It may seem strange, but many novice traders think that something should happen before they will “really stick to their plan”. It could be “just one more good winner”, or “if only I had bigger capital”, or “when I finish this yet one more educational course’’ - and AFTER that I’ll do what I know I should be doing.
So, if your answer to that question is yes, then this is a clear indication you’re still in a very beginner mindset. Try to realize that ANY external change will not change the way you are. You need to change yourself FIRST, the way you behave in the markets and your mindset, and then everything external will follow.
Trading needs to be treated like a business 🧑💼This is spoken about a lot but what does it mean?
In starting a business you would need funding and a business plan, right?
You would have realistic goals mapped out and be focused on your cashflow.
You wouldn't blow your 'cash' in recruiting too fast, or buying too much stock or spending too much on marketing.
Yet, in trading most don't have a plan. Or focus on protecting their cash.
They also don't think long term in line with their plan.
They over estimate their expectations short term and in doing so mess up what they could achieve long term.
You just wouldn't do this in business right?
No one would open or run a business you knew nothing about.
Most come in to trading thinking this will be easy! It's not and we all come in knowing nothing.
So again would you start any other business with no training or idea?
Most can keep the trading cash flow topped up as we all start out on this journey having another job to fund trading.
There is no such thing as a sure-fire way to make money online. However, if you seriously want to make money out of forex trading it needs treating like a business.
In a lot of ways, being a trader is like being an entrepreneur. It takes more than just knowledge and a killer idea.
It also takes hard work, discipline and mental preparation.
The reason it’s a good idea to treat forex trading like a business is because as a trader, your account is your own business.
Trading isn't about the quick money it's about being consistent.
That consistency comes from having a plan and sticking to it much like you would a business plan.
Treat losses as a cost of business and factor them into the plan.
The business plan for you the trader will be the strategy and risk management you opt to run.
Set realistic targets and goals this will ensure suitability, Much how good businesses set up there own goals and aims for coming year with out being to risky.
If you lack on the knowledge front in certain areas invest in education and training, No successful business neglects training and learning.
Invest in resources that will help your business grow. Yes TradingView is free but having a higher package and more data help me just as an example.
There is no other business in the world like trading where the over heads and start up cost are low, So if paid resources can kick you on to next level factor them in as a cost of business.
Keep treating trading as a hobby and it becomes an expensive one.
Start treating trading as a business with the ethos and cultures applied the same as those of successful businesses and that profit starts to come naturally.
Thanks for taking the time to read my idea.
Hope you all have a good weekend
Darren 👍
Some helpful trading tips ✅✅Trading Advise from Richard Dennis who turned a $400 trading account into $200 million.
1. Whatever method you use to enter trades, the most critical thing is that if there is a major trend, your approach should assure that you get in that trend.
2. A good trend following system will keep you in the market until there is evidence that the trend has changed.
3. When you have a position, you put it on for a reason, and you’ve got to keep it until the reason no longer exists.
4. You should expect the unexpected in this business; expect the extreme. Don’t think in terms of boundaries that limit what the market might do.
5. Trading decisions should be made as unemotionally as possible.
6. Trade small because that’s when you are as bad as you are ever going to be. Learn from your mistakes.
Stop Loss Alone is not Risk Management - What is Your SystemTo be successful, you must develop consistency in your trading.
You can achieve this by creating a system to trade.
One that provides an edge to fit your lifestyle and personality.
Discipline is required to stick to your system so that you can measure results (wins and losses) over a large number of trades.
A simple journal helps you to measure your trades.
This provides edge and success unfolds over time, requiring a strong mindset to create, adhere and measure.
Goals are achievable through steps that are part of the process.
Things to consider when developing your system are: Market Phase, Price Structure, Areas of Value, Areas of Entries as well as Exits, Multi Time Frame Analysis, Trend Lines, Support and Resistance, Dynamic Support and Resistance etc.
Pro Tip: Trade clean and don't clutter your charts. Trade around a couple of levels with a single indicator.
Be PATIENT to let trades come to you once you have made a trading plan.
And when the market enters your zone, be READY to take action and trigger your entry based on rules.
If you're a new trader or a struggling trader, feel free to reach out and ask me a question.
If you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments.
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations.
✍️WEEKLY QUOTE: Can we change our beliefs about the market?✍️..Each time I experienced a conflicting thought and was able to successfully refocus on my objective, with enough conviction to get me into my running shoes and out the door, I added energy to the belief that "I am a runner." And, just as important, I inadvertently drew energy away from all of the beliefs that would argue otherwise.
..Beliefs can be changed, and if it's possible to change one belief, then it's possible to change any belief if you understand that you really aren't changing them, but are only transferring energy from one concept to another. Therefore, two completely contradictory beliefs can exist in your mental system, side by side. But if you've drawn the energy out of one belief and completely energized the other, no contradiction exists from a functional perspective; only the belief that the energy will have the capacity to act as a force on your state of mind, on your perception and interpretation of information, and your behavior.
..Remember that consistency is not the same as the ability to put on a winning trade, or even a string of winning trades for that matter, because putting on a winning trade requires absolutely no skill. All you have to do is guess correctly, which is no different than guessing the outcome of a coin toss, whereas consistency is a state of mind that, once achieved, won't allow you to "be" any other way. You won't have to try to be consistent because it will be a natural function of your identity
In fact, if you have to try, it's an indication that you haven't completely integrated the principles of consistent success as dominant, unconflicted beliefs. For example, predefining your risk is a step in the process of "being consistent." If it takes any special effort to predefine your risk, if you have to consciously remind yourself to do it if you experience any conflicting thoughts (in essence, trying to talk you out of doing it), or if you find yourself in a trade where you haven't predefined your risk, then this principle is not dominant, functioning part of your identity. It isn't "who you are." If it were, it wouldn't even occur to you not to predefine your risk. If and when all of the sources of conflict have been deactivated, there's no longer a potential for you to "be" any other way. What was once a struggle will become virtually effortless. At that point, it may seem to other people that you are so disciplined (because you can do something they find difficult, if not impossible), but the reality is that you aren't being disciplined at all; you are simply functioning from a different set of beliefs that compel you to behave in a way that is consistent with your desires, goals, or objectives
From Trading in the Zone by M. Douglas
When to up your share size?Many traders have 2 or more trade set ups.
It is important to know the following:
1)The risk of your trade must be in accordance with the winning percentage of the trade set up.
1)Your share size should increase or decrease in accordance with the winning percentage of the trade set up.
* Share size increase must be in accordance to you account size (account management)
These concepts are what separates really good traders from average traders.
📖 STEP 4 to MASTER TRADING: Focus on One Pattern 📖
"I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times." - Bruce Lee
We, traders, have a natural passion for learning and that’s really great and helps us build that foundation for trading. However, a moment comes when enough is enough and it’s time to focus on something more specific. But very often, we can make the unconscious mistake of trying to learn as much as possible, without even questioning if we really need it at the moment.
🟩 TOO MUCH INFORMATION
For anyone eager to learn, the information is there. In fact, too much information, and naturally, it can be hard to stop learning. Sometimes we just feel we need to learn about one more pattern, one more strategy, one more approach. And it may seem that more knowledge will bring quality. And that’s true when you just start trading, however, later in your career, it makes sense to think and ask yourself: “Do I really need one more strategy which I know on an average level, or should I maybe focus on one strategy, or one pattern of any given strategy - and really master it, and refine it to the very deep level of understanding?”
🟩 IT’S UNCOMFORTABLE TO LET GO
This part can be discussed for a long time, but based on what was said before, it’s literally uncomfortable for traders to let go of this habit of trying to trade multiple patterns, and learn more patterns in between. I’m not sure why this is so, there must be some psychological reasoning for this, but in simple words, every new trading pattern can be treated by us as a new opportunity to make profits in the market. And so when we stop learning more patterns - it can feel like we’re missing something.
And it may seem that the more we trade, the more patterns we can use - the more profit we can bank because we can enter into the market based on different patterns. And while that may be true to some genius traders, for most of us it doesn’t work that well. More importantly - we don’t need to do it. It’s enough to master 1-2 patterns of a given system we believe in and tested, and so have confidence in it.
I propose you consider “cutting off” 90% of your trading knowledge and focus only on executing 1-2 patterns max. Think about it. If you’re like me, you should feel really uncomfortable or even scared to do this. It may even seem stupid. Because it means you should let go of all the time you dedicated to learning, and maybe even trading with some systems before. But it’s an illusion because that time and effort - they are not lost, you can’t lose them, they are part of you now, part of your experience, something that led you to finally choose something you will work with really closely. But if you will attach to everything you learned before – this will confuse you and spray your focus all over the place, making it much harder to become a specialized, professional trader.
🟩 FOCUS ON YOUR BEST PATTERN ONLY
When the time comes, and you’ve tried several strategies, it now makes sense to stop exploring additional systems and just focus on one system and learn everything about it. For example, if you’re trading head and shoulders, then stop trading double tops and bottoms, break and retest, and diamond patterns. Why? Because head and shoulders are not just 5 lines on the chart, it has numerous variations in how it plays out in the market, in different markets, sessions, and contexts. And you have to know it, see it, test it, and refine it. Become a master of head and shoulders, or any other specific pattern and trading approach, and be profitable with it. And if profitability is there - you can move on to another pattern, but at that stage, you will not need it probably.
🟩 HINDSIGHT TEST, BACKTEST, FORWARDTEST, REFINE
It’s a great practice to have a “hindsight journal” and your backtesting journal, that will only be about that pattern you chose to trade. And there could be several reasons for choosing some particular pattern. But usually, it comes from your mentor or anyone else that you saw who reached sustainable profitability with it, and you believed in this pattern. But that would not be enough. You can’t tell your brain - believe in this. You need to actually show and prove it to your brain and to yourself.
So you need to backtest this pattern, and only this pattern for at least 150 trades. This will help you to develop real confidence in the system.
🟩 YES, IT CAN BE HARD TO FIND “YOUR” SYSTEM
I spent almost 3 years before I really found something I was willing to stick to long-term. Not sure if there’s actually good advice on how to find the system for yourself. It depends on your personality, your lifestyle, etc. Based on my experience, I would say just continue to learn and listen to yourself. Most likely you’ll find some trader or a mentor and you’ll like his trading style. Try to replicate it, and stick to his system. With time, and during journaling and live testing, it will all develop into your own system. Yes, it may look similar to your mentor’s but it will be your system.
And once again, a trading system can have different kinds of entry confirmations, but it makes big sense to choose 1 or 2 confirmations and master them.
🎁 For those who are still reading :), thank you, and here’s BONUS trading hack for you. Next time during your trading day, when you'll feel something is wrong, maybe you're frustrated or just feel like your discipline starts to slip away, or maybe even you catch yourself thinking about entering without entry pattern or risk more than usual - realize that's your "monkey brain" stepping in. It's very hard to control, but easy to trick. Here's what you should do. Say to yourself: "Ok, I'll do whatever I like, place any kind of trade with the risk of half of the account if I want, BUT after 20 min. pass." Then you just start a timer (you can google "timer 20 min.") and do whatever you like after that 20 minutes. Usually what happens is you calm down and don't do stupid things. It very simple but effective technique.
🚀Thanks for your BOOSTS and support🚀
💬Send your comments and questions below, I'll be glad to talk to you💬
Dima
Layout and order in TradingviewStrategy is the first most important thing in trading to me, the second is the right layout in Tradingview to monitor the market everyday
Im finding the perfect layout to me for my intraday trading I can apply on forex and commodities, having at least 1 future chart as reference
Following the description of my 8 charts on layout, for instance on BTC. My order of monitoring follows from point 1 to 8:
***INTRADAY PERPECTIVE
1. My main intraday chart
- Time frame preferred 30m or 4h
- No moving averages but only levels
- Yesterday's low and high levels (red and green dotted lines) generated with my custom pinescript indicator. It includes also failed auctions detection and ATR percentage for my stop loss reference
- Intraday volume level on price (white lines)
- My custom weekly and monthly level indicator (red horizontal lines) I generate with a my python tool or I can manually draw adding my preferred trendlines.
- Volume on timeline (Indicator: Volume) and on price (Indicator: VRVP) are optional. I will look volumes on future chart, not cfd and so on
2. Chart with the same intraday time frame at point 1, with candlestick and pattern detection indicators free provided by Tradingview.
***SWING PERSPECTIVE
3. Daily chart with moving averages EMA9, EMA20, SMA50, SMA200. Main underlying (for instance BTC)
4. Daily chart with moving averages EMA9, EMA20, SMA50, SMA200. Main correlated underlying (for instance USDOLLAR, SP500 are highly correlated with BTC)
5. Future Chart, for instance BT1!
- Volume on timeline (Indicator: Volume) and on price (Indicator: VRVP) are required on futures.
- Charts like contango curve (BTC2! - BTC1!) or difference between future and spot price are optional (without a strategy)
6. Weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) on future chart, for instance BT1!, free provided by Tradingview
7. Weekly chart with moving averages EMA9, EMA20, SMA50, SMA200. Main underlying (for instance BTC)
8. Monthly chart with moving averages EMA9, EMA20, SMA50, SMA200. Main underlying (for instance BTC)
Maybe It will not my final layout but im working well for now. Last but not least.....Dont Sitting and staring at a computer monitor all day long, but using alerts where I need, much better tradingview webhooks to my robots.
Trading Psychology | How to Perceive Your Trades 👁
Hey traders,
In this post, we will discuss a common fallacy among struggling traders: overestimation of a one single trade.
💡The fact is that quite often, watching the performance of an active trading position, traders quite painfully react to the price being closer and closer to a stop loss or, alternatively, coiling close to a take profit but not being managed to reach that.
Fear of loss make traders make emotional decisions:
extending stop loss or preliminary position closing.
The situation becomes even worse, when after the set of the above-mentioned manipulation, the price nevertheless reaches the stop loss.
Just one single losing trade is usually perceived too personally and make the traders even doubt the efficiency of their trading system.
They start changing rules in their strategy, then stop following the trading plan, leading to even more losses.
❗️However, what matters in trading is your long-term composite performance. A single position is just one brick in a wall. As Peter Lynch nicely mentioned: “In this business, if you’re good, you’re right six times out of ten. You’re never going to be right nine times out of ten.”
There are so many factors that are driving the markets that it is impossible to take into consideration them all. And because of that fact, we lose.
The attached chart perfectly illustrates the insignificance of a one trading in a long-term composite performance.
Please, realize that losing trades are inevitable, and overestimation of their impact on your trading performance is detrimental.
Instead, calibrate your strategy so that it would produce long-term, consistent positive results. That is your goal as a trader.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
✍️WEEKLY QUOTE: How to be rigid and flexible at the same time?✍️
In what way does a trader have to learn how to be rigid and flexible at the same time? The answer is: We have to be rigid in our rules and flexible in our expectations
🟢We need to be rigid in our rules so that we gain a sense of self-trust that can, and will always, protect us in an environment that has few, if any, boundaries. We need to be flexible in our expectations so we can perceive, with the greatest degree of clarity and objectivity, what the market is communicating to us from its perspective.
At this point, it probably goes without saying that the typical trader does just the opposite: He is flexible in his rules and rigid in his expectations. Interestingly enough, the more rigid the expectation, the more he has to either bend, violate, or break his rules in order to accommodate his unwillingness to give up what he wants in favor of what the market is offering.
🟢To eliminate the emotional risk of trading, you have to neutralize your expectations about what the market will or will not do at any given moment or in any given situation. You can do this by being willing to think from the market's perspective.
Remember, the market is always communicating in probabilities. At the collective level, your edge may look perfect in every respect; but at the individual level, every trader who has the potential to act as a force on price movement can negate the positive outcome of that edge. To think in probabilities, you have to create a mental framework or mindset that is consistent with the underlying principles of a probabilistic environment.
💡 A probabilistic mindset consists of five fundamental truths.💡
1. Anything can happen.
2. You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.
3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.
4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.
5. Every moment in the market is unique.
From Trading in the Zone, by M. Douglas
❤️Please, support this post with like and comments!❤️
Guide To Trading USD/JPY (In Top Five Most Traded Pairs)The USD/JPY currency pair is one of the more popular FX pairings available to traders. It’s represented by two of the world’s largest economies with the US (US Dollar) and Japan (JPY). USD/JPY ranks as the second most traded currency pair in the world, according to the Bank of International Settlement (BIS), which compiles statistics in cooperation with world central banks to inform analysis of global liquidity, among other things.
Fundamental Aspects:
Two of the world’s largest economies, USD/JPY is often a popular macro venue for traders – especially as a hedge for manufacturers and global importers/exporters. With the Japanese Yen being the most heavily traded currency in Asia, USD/JPY is often seen as a significant link between the Eastern and Western worlds. Because the pair represents two risk-averse currencies, volatility often lags behind the other G10 FX majors, which will tend to offer greater deviation in the represented economies (such as the UK and US or Europe and the US). As such, traders will often expect lower levels of volatility in the pair, which can open the door to more ranges or mean reversion as opposed to trends or breakouts that may be more common in other major forex trading pairs.
The big focus is on the respective central banks for the possibility of even more unprecedented easing. The Fed and BoJ are two of the most extended central banks and the competing stances on monetary policy have continued to define the multi-year range in price. USD/JPY has traditionally seen strong correlations with U.S. Treasuries and as such, tends to be rather sensitive to broader shifts in interest rates and interest rate expectations. Also of note: the Japanese Yen, as well as the US Dollar, enjoys a ‘haven’ status during times of economic uncertainty.
USD/JPY is extremely popular with larger institutional traders, banks and multi-national corporations. Often employed for hedging purposes, the pair can be used to offset currency risk for manufacturers as well as global exporters and importers. USD/JPY often trades on both USD flows and risk trends, depending on future interest rates expectations and risk appetite in broader financial markets. Range-prone price action and event risk volatility makes USD/JPY an attractive asset for retail traders as well as technical traders across the spectrum.
How & When To Trade USD/JPY?
With such a high market volume, USD/JPY is often a favored FX pair for technical traders. Adherence to psychological levels and potential for sharp inflection moves off support and resistance levels tend to make the pair more amenable for reversal/breakout approaches and shorter intra-day trends. USD/JPY trading trends evolve quickly and over the past five years, the pair has been a popular product for near-term and swing traders. Price action in this pair is notorious for aggressive reversals and fast breakouts, making it ideal for short-term scalping as well as event risk traders looking to take advantage of the sharp spike in volatility during key data releases or macro-economic developments. In practice, this can mean shallower targets and tighter stops. Finally, it is worth paying attention to the psychological price levels, as there is a propensity for sharp inflections off big-figure thresholds. When To Trade?: London/New York overlap is best time (4hrs) even if Tokyo is not open.
📖 STEP 3 to MASTER TRADING: WHAT’S YOUR TRADING EDGE? 📖The topic of trading edge in the market is highly underrated, in my opinion. That’s why today I propose to discuss it, and I hope it can help you to shift your perspective on this matter. So let’s think about this together. What parts does your trading edge consist of?
🟩 THE BIG FILTER
For me, the first part of any trading edge is its filter. So your trading system tells you very clearly when you should NOT be in the market. It protects your capital - both $ capital and emotional capital - from poor market conditions, and low-quality and low-probability setups. And what it actually means when you execute your edge is that most of the time, you will stay out of the market.
🟩 YOU WILL “MISS” THE MOVES
That’s really tough topic for many of us, me included because very often you’re looking to enter the zone, but the price can either turn right before tapping into it or tap and doesn’t give any confirmation for entry. And that could be very emotional. However, the fact is simple - such “missed” moves are also part of our edge. Why? Because if you tested one set up, one pattern, and you know it’s profitable the way it is, then you need to execute it the way it is. Keep in mind, when I say profitable, I don’t mean crazy profitable. Today, with access to prop firms, we need a very low % of profitability to earn for living. We can scale the $ amount relatively easily if we are profitable consistently.
So again, we don’t need every move, and we don’t need the whole move. We just need some part of some moves - and a good edge will make consistent profits out of this.
And only then, if you want, you can tweak, refine and step by step make your system even more profitable.
🟩 THE PATTERN
This part is actually your entry pattern. Notice again, this is just a part of your system, not the whole system. If you really understand this, you’ll be much more relaxed in the market. This part should include a written checklist for your entry - just like a pilot has a checklist before his flight. A checklist, in its turn - is a part of your trading plan, it’s the essence of your trading plan. You will refer to it before every trade.
🟩 MANAGEMENT, LOSERS AND BREAKEVENS
When you executed your edge in the market, now you need to manage the trade accordingly, based on your checklist. So take partials, accept breakevens and losers. If you entered into a high-quality setup, which turned into a BE or a loser - it’s the part of your system, and usually, it doesn’t make sense to overthink it and try to find flaws in your system. But that’s flexible, and of course, you can analyze what happened, and maybe even find something to tweak, but very often a loser is just a normal loser, and breakeven is just a normal breakeven.
📖To recap, any edge will include:
🔹“missed” trades
🔹trades, where price didn’t tap into your entry order just a bit
🔹trades where you were stopped out for several pips and price then went to profit (if it repeats constantly, maybe consider having a bigger stop loss)
🔹full TP
🔹partials
🔹losers
🔹breakevens
🎁If you’re still here, here’s a BONUS trading hack for you. Ask yourself and try to answer honestly this question: “During all the time I’m trading, what is the maximum amount of days in a row, when I followed my rules to the T, honestly?” You will be surprised, but the usual answer is 3-10 days. Yes, people can trade for 2-3 years, but never manage to follow their rules (whatever they have at the moment) for at least a month in a row. It all leads to catastrophe, of course.
Thank you for your time! If you want to see more educational materials, please hit the BOOST button and leave your comments below.
Dima
Guide To Trading Eur/Usd (#1 Most Popular Forex Pair)As the two largest and mostly commonly traded currencies in the world, the euro (EUR) and US dollar (USD) represent the highest proportion of trades made in international finance. Euro to USD (EUR/USD) trading occurs constantly and the pairing of the two is extremely popular; it's actually the most liquid currency pairing in the world. A large number of companies operate both within Europe and the Unites States, owning offices in both locations.
Fundament Aspects:
Reasons for trading and investing include: the vast amount of economic and financial data available on the EUR/USD exchange rate, the wide range of market participants and combination of volatility and liquidity in the EUR/USD market – all of which make trading this pair attractive to newcomers and veterans alike. Only existed since end of 20th century, EUR/USD has proven itself to be a powerhouse in modern forex trading.
This common currency for a large proportion of Europe quickly gained traction and became cemented as a market leader. Euro trading swiftly developed into a new and exciting financial opportunity. The dollar, of course, is far older, with roots stemming back to 1792 and the creation of the United States Constitution. Since that time, the dollar has grown considerably in strength and, paired with the euro, has become something of a global standard among investors and traders. The EUR/USD experienced large price swings as various economic and political events affected it.
Role of Euro : As interest rates play a major part in the moves of the EUR/USD exchange rate, it will come as no surprise that the European Central Bank (ECB) is one of the major institutions to which investors and traders will pay close attention when making decisions that might affect the future direction of this currency pair. The ECB releases monthly reports concerning interest rates and economic outlook, which are used by investors and traders as indicators about future policy direction and the effect these may have on the EUR/USD exchange rate. Wider economic data, such as consolidated employment numbers, can also impact the EUR/USD exchange rate and can be a vital source of information for traders.
Role of USD : As with its counterpart, the US dollar is influenced by its own central bank, the US Federal Reserve – often referred to as the Fed. The institution releases the Federal Funds rate and rate statements eight times a year, which can provide insight into the state of the US economy and impact the currency. In the US, the Bureau of Labor Statistics release Nonfarm Payroll numbers usually on the first Friday of every month. This is the US unemployment data and can often cause volatility in the EUR/USD pairing. It is closely watched by traders and investors around the world.
Why trade Eur/Usd? The exceptionally tight pricing for euro to USD means lower costs for traders. The high volume of trade in this pair make for a market with plenty of liquidity. Historically, the EURUSD market has seen some great trends over multiple time frames – another reason why traders are attracted to this foreign exchange pair. When To Trade? If day trading the EUR/USD, the times that are likely to be most active for the pair, on average, will be when exchanges in London and New York are open and overlapping (4 hours a day), before London session closes for the day.
How to control your trading mentality 🧠Mental training helps individuals to improve their performance by preparing their emotions and mind. Focus, confidence, and motivations are important factors of mental factors. According to a study done at Brown University, it may be possible to train your brain’s automatic emotional responses. It may improve your experience in trading. To be a mentally tough trader, one should tap into his emotional and mental resources that keep his mind in check at its peak as often and consistently as possible. One may make wrong decisions when he/she is unstable emotionally and mentally.
Stop 🚫
It does not matter how you good or how experienced you are in trading. If you don't see the whole picture 100%, your trading experience would end unsuccessfully. What happens when you keep hitting that stop loss and losing money? Your body starts to release cortisol, the primary stress hormone, which increases blood sugar in the bloodstream. When cortisol level is more than normal, you will have high blood pressure, will become agitated, irritated and start to sweat. You have to STOP! You will only lose more if you continue to trade. Take a breath and take a step back. When you come back, you will have a better perspective and a better picture of how to trade.
Accept ✅
Every trader has their own pace of learning and trading. Don't compare yourself to others. Your friend may have started earlier and made more than you. You just have to ACCEPT! Trading is not about competition. You cannot start trading with a competing mentality. Don’t take a higher risk than you can handle. If you have only $100, just accept that you have $100. 100 is a start of a bigger number. Don’t follow social media group who claims how much they made and how easy it is. Your brain may unconsciously make competitive decisions.
Make a plan 📝
You have to make a plan. You may have made a plan and failed. Let me tell you what worked for me. Like many traders, I lost in the beginning. The more you lose money while trading, the more you focus on the money not on the trading. When you focus on money, you may try to find money by different ways; borrowing, stealing and some in easy ways. To make a plan to trading, you have to see the whole picture; the risk, the situation it is creating for you, your family and finance and your future.
Summary
It is important to stop when you are overwhelmed and take a step back. When come back you will see how much difference it makes when you are calm and in control of your emotions and mind. Accepting that you have your own pace of learning and trading is also crucial in trading. Last but not least, to make a plan consider the risk and the situation. Be prepared and be in control of your emotions.
Now you know when to stop and accept. You are ready to start your trading journey.
Don't put at risk what you already built. Take it slow at your own pace.