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Trading Plan

Irrational behavior: Victim mentality, risk & loss aversionPeople that call themselves neuro-economists make all sorts of experiments, the ABCD questions are from Kahneman and Tversky from 40 years ago, I found these examples on stanford website. There was another similar study, or series of studies in Lyon, France. They got people to speculate and when they dangled the carrot in front of them they basically created Bitcoin: Some researchers looked at institution traders and found the ones taking the most risks had the highest male hormones. I wonder how it is for the girls? They sometimes take big risks I'm sure, and let's ignore the dumb gambling mentality ones that's not who I mean. Maybe they rather get into bonds and stick to small risks safe returns? Any degen out there? All the big losing (famous) rogue traders are boys, so maybe there is something here, still I think the main reason is they hold bags and add to them. Nick Lesson is a legend, a superhero, he turned a 20 thousand loss into an 800 million one, why aren't people fighting to hire him? Can I hire the guy? Going to take his valuable advice and do the opposite. 20k into 800,000k! Another legend is Karen the supertrader, I don't think her high T made her lose millions. Just loss aversion and being a complete psychopath. I guess at some point it's not risk taking but loss aversion, technically/logically they are taking enormous risks out of fear of losing, but they are not logical so... Markets have been around 4000 years and derivatives at least 10,000. And people still don't get why. It is a place for risk averse persons yes, but they are the end user, the "client", the markets help out people get rid of their risk at a price. Once again, 0 logic: It makes absolutely no sense that risk-averse and loss-averse players would try to make money in the markets. The subject is fascinating to me, I have this impression I have dropped on an alien planet where nothing makes sense and it feels so fantastic, like I am in a Star Trek episode. I think (I am quite certain of it) we can see this in full display with Bitcoin: These are not winning odds... Also notice all these Bitcoin baghodlers that like to talk a lot in hindsight NEVER tell anyone what their position is and NEVER have an idea on their profile. Emotional (illogical) brain and low hormones (even moar risk aversion) is a bad combination... You look at some people that lied to police to avoid losing their job or reputation and that would never have lied to get the job in the first place... The majority always runs away from profit when it is objectively much better, and instead chooses the much smaller but guaranteed reward. And the majority will choose taking huge not worth it risks to avoid a loss, rather than just take a small loss and be on their merry way. I find it stunning than the majority of people could literally have the holy grail, and they would still mess it up because they are scared. This game (obviously) is not about changing and managing your emotions. Or autists would all be billionaires it's so obvious... Guess who these "it's easy it's all about emotions" ads are targetted to? What it takes is thousands of hours of screen time, practice, backtesting, reading, number crunching. The emotion stuff everyone learns about at the start is just a way to weed out the ones not meant to play this game. There are plenty other activities out there. As far as I am concerned if an individual has it deeply rooted in their subconscious this "bug", there is no way to rewire the brain this deep. For the (13% according to these questions lol) that have the ability to compete, it's a matter of spending the time getting good and rub hands when noobs cheerfully pile in, in a bubble or when trading gets popular in general (and then they create bubbles). The predators can abuse these cheerful greedy noobs and have a huge feast. When they baghold for ages or keep holding the price down it's less interesting though. But part of me wants to have this image of stomping noobs. Well Bitcoin was bagheld more than usual because they saw it go up so many times before (still super irrational and still sold the bottom for the most part, somehow XD), but hey they are pumping the S&P like the Nasdaq in 2000 right? The noobs are also going to sell GME fast right? After buying it up fast. (Sad I can't short). I don't think this info is really useful to be honest, the people without the illogical bug won't get much out of it (it's cool to know where the illogical as regulators say "inefficient" patterns come from), the people with the illogical bug will be in denial and convinced they are part of the winners. Is this anything more than an ego stroke and having a laugh while belittling illogical risk averse people? Well I think it's interesting, and plenty of scientists do too.
Education
by MrRenev
14 EMOTIONAL STATES OF A TRADER1.OPTIMISM. It all starts with a positive outlook on the market situation, which leads the trader to open a trade. The trader is looking forward to future success. 2.EXCITATION. The market starts moving in the predicted direction. The trader anticipates events and hopes that success is assured. 3.TREMBLING. The market continues to move in the direction the trader needs, this is a moment of joyful fading. At this stage, the trader is completely confident in his trading system. 4.EUPHORIA. The point of maximum financial risk. Investments turn into quick and easy profit. The trader completely ignores the risk. 5.ANXIETY. Oh no, the market is turning! The first signs of movement not in favor of the trader appear. But he does not notice this and believes that the market will recover and the trend will continue. 6.NEGATION. The expected market recovery did not happen. The trader does not accept what is happening and remains in the position. 7.FEAR. Reality dictates its own rules, and the trader begins to realize that he is not as smart as he previously thought. Instead of confidence in success, thoughts begin to get confused. 8.DESPAIR. At this point, all profits are lost. The trader had a chance to take profit, but he missed it. Not knowing how to proceed further, he is trying to do everything to return at least to the break-even point. 9.PANIC. The most emotional period. At this stage, the trader feels his ignorance and helplessness and is completely at the mercy of the market. The mind is paralyzed, which sometimes leads to meaningless actions in the market. 10.SURRENDER. The trader has reached the limit of patience and closes the position in order not to increase losses anymore. 11.DESPODENCY. After exiting the market, the trader no longer has the slightest desire to conclude deals. 12.DEPRESSION. The trader begins to blame himself for stupidity, for why he did not close the deal on time. Some choose the right path and begin to analyze what went wrong. True traders are born at this stage, studying past mistakes and drawing conclusions. 13.HOPE. “I can still do it!” Eventually, the trader returns to the realization that there are indeed cycles in the market. He begins to analyze new possibilities. 14.FAITH. At this stage, the trader regains faith in his future in the market and starts trading again.
Editors' picks
Education
by Berzerk_invest
248
Irrational behavior: Fleeing winnersI do not know if one is born a trader but I know one can be born NEVER a trader. Those that have these bugs in their programming that make them do things that make absolutely no sense, there is no point even trying, they are set to fail from the start. I think learning about your own tender feelings is totally useless, if you have these tender feelings I am pretty sure you'll never make it no matter how many excuses how throw at reality, which is yet another irrational thing to do and so silly to expect it to make a difference 🤷‍♂️. But learning about other people tender feelings is certainly interesting. Running winners is variable the ultimate objective is not to be a robot. And the variable might be increasing right now which is a reason for me to write this little piece. First of all I think this period of the year is more lively than the winter, but also notice the pattern americans are following: "In the first round of economic impact payments, households set aside 29% of their checks for consumption. In the second round, that fell to 26%, and in the most recent round fell to 25%." The S&P 500 broke out of the Donald Trump trade war broadening wedge. It remained above, kept going up, now even broke 4000 and bears are getting slaughtered, skeptics are slowly being convinced it won't crash like 2008. You know the saying "1 by 1". Americans fear is diminishing, unless it's just they have no choice, I think their fear is reducing, and they are spending more willingly, gambling some of it on meme stocks. We saw the Yen do this thing it sometimes does. Lots of money is being printed, activity around the world is growing. I think we can expect big trends, Forex was creating depressions with how bad and tight it had gotten. Finally! Trying to run winners for kilometers in a calm market is stupid, but not as stupid and running away from winners like they are Michael Myers. Nobody makes money being a (redacted: kitty-cat). The whole idea is to catch big winners. It's the whole point of the markets. They trend. The idea is that when the market has a big move in a direction you sometimes catch it, and when it has a big move against you you NEVER catch it. Why would markets even exist? Why would anyone ever need to hedge? It's so stupid I can't believe it. Hedgers = avoid market exposure, avoid all moves. Speculators = take the risk from hedgers, want market exposure. Noobs = Only want market exposure when they lose????? Imagine this, get in the mind of losing traders: You sell, the price goes down, and down, and then there is a pullback with a perfect double top or whatever you like and would normally sell every day of the week. But BECAUSE YOU ARE WINNING YOU DON'T? Lol? And then to "go faster" they go take huge positions that destroy them, and get into day gambling and so on. These lose-loving bagholders are the reason why Bitcoin only bottomed AFTER they capitulated in March 2020 when (and weeks after) the price collapsed 60% in a few hours. Gamblers addicting to losing were constantly selling the instant Bitcoin went up and buying heavy bags as it went down which leads to more selling pressure (after a buyer buys, he becomes a potential seller). Once all the - most of them - quick quick gambling bagholders got wiped out, there was no more run-away-from-winner losers preventing Bitcoin from going up. I have been buying US indices since October and I have no intention to stop. If I have urges to "play" like day gamblers do, I'd much rather buy a bit more of S&P. Does not have to be much. 10 bucks turbos with a 2-10% KO (so 100-500 bucks worth of S&P) every day is objectively smarter than day gambling every day on it with a few hundred bucks. If it keeps going you can turn a small account into a small fortune. At some point just have to be careful the risk is limited and the exposure does not become insane. Can always sell and then buy back. Say you had a call, close it and buy a new larger one. Just to make sure if it goes 1987 or 6 may 2010 all these gains are not lost but this is not the same as just exiting and that's it, you're still under exposure to that winner, just making sure risk is limited, and profit is not. As it keeps going these profits can snowball into something so monstruous not even kidding. Start with an initial 50 bucks risk end up with a 150,000 euros win dead serious. Meanwhile some ****** idiot made 30 bucks as soon as it went up. And felt good about it. Good job man! On Bitcoin the noobiest of them all, you can see bagholders breakeven at areas where they previously bought. No one gets greedy and just wants to keep piling in into winners and bulldoze their way up?
Education
by MrRenev
2
How to stick to your trading plan / not close early trades.Once you have your strategy on how to grow your account, risk managment and your watchlist. The only problem is a traders psychology. You could have problems with closing early trades in loss/profit becase you are scared it might go south. To answer this, you have to change your mindset. Once you have done the analysis on the chart and you make that trade with the take profit and stop loss, just dont look at how much you are earning/losing. Focus on the chart and what is happeing. You didn't make the trade on numbers from your account but on candles on the chart. Make yourself think that you cant close the trade until it hits that stop loss or take profit. You WILL take loses, most day traders don't make it profitable. If you had the confidence to make that trade KEEP the confidence during your trade. If you don't belive in your own trades and that you can make it as a trader, why would anyone else? Profesional traders take loses too. No strategy works 100% of the time.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by fxAljtaric
How to trade support/resistance breaksAs we can see on the picture we have 2 examples on how to do it properly and a bullish engulfing candle for a perfect entry. So lets explain a little more: 1. First example is how not to trade it. The reason is simple. We haven't retested our support. You want the buyers to hold our support. If they don't, you don't enter. Quite simple. 2. This is what could've happened if a trader didn't wait for a retest on the support after breaking the resistance (resistances become supports after we break them, roofs become floors). 3. Our trader waited for the retest, saw a bullish engulfing candle and took the entry. If you are going long you want your stop loss to be just under the support. If you are shorting you want your stop loss to be just above the resistance. Also, dont trade against the trend on higher time frames! As we all know, no trading strategy has a 100% winrate so expect some loses, but remember the more confluences you have on your trade the more likely it is to play out. When you are looking for entries, you never want your RR (risk to reward) to be under 2. I don't recomend using time frames below 5 minute (even though 5 minute is a little messy too). Remember to use proper risk managment while trading and keep your mental strong. Comment below if you have any fillers for this strategy and remember to backtest this on your pairs before making the trade. No strategy works on all pairs.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by fxAljtaric
1
10 ways to speed up the process & improve our bottom line1- Get good: make sure you spot patterns and avoid mistakes by practicing First of all obviously, and I did not find this in the "how to improve performance lists" I looked at on the internet, obviously you want to avoid mistakes as much as possible and also we want to make sure we never miss out. So every single day checking the news and/or charts and any other source we may find helpful. And then also regularly going through past trades, taken or backtested, going through the whole process, and even using tradingview replay button on past price action to train our recognition skills, learn to not fomo in, and more. The first 5 years are the hardest they say, and then the price action pops out more easily.  2- Get good: keep reading and learning I'm sure many if not most ideas & strategies see their first spark when we just spend time reading about markets and looking at charts without specifically looking for a strategy, it just comes naturally we spot patterns with time. So keep spending time taking an interest in everything, when you get a little light appear over your head go check if it has any value if a strat can be derived out of it, and this all should just happen by itself over time.  3- Trade lower timeframes, higher timeframes You could get into statistical arbitrage, crypto arbitrage and market making, or any other short term activity. The barrier to entry is here, the skill floor is not down to zero, so there is a large investment to make just to get started. If you are currently hardstuck, it might be interesting, probably not very, from what I have seen most of the money is made using expensive technology and day trader data to take money from the usual retail victims (100% of day traders are "retail" traders). But if there is a bone with a bit of meat left and it's not too much effort for the reward, even getting an extra 2-3% a year might be worth it. Another solution, more intelligent but less attractive to the average "retail" beginner is to look at higher timeframes. One could have no short term activity on a currency that is very choppy and very slow but take a long term position and get a little bit of extra profit. Also with aiming for long term when possible we can get more out of the market, bigger winners (more "pips") = more profit, and spreads become insignificant.  4- Build another business It can take the focus away, the smart entrepreneur will avoid getting too ambitious and beign a jack of all trades master of none, if one is hopelessly stuck at a ceiling they can't breakout of it could be a good idea to stop forcing and look somewhere else, the ceiling might be easier to break later on. A business can add more stable cash inflow, reduce risk and net worth or income volatility, and keep us from tearing our hair out when we aren't getting the amount of setups we want in the markets.  5- Increase position size Go big like Bill Hwang, then blow up like Bill Hwang. This guy over the years (15 years I think) made more than 60% a year return without much people knowing about it as he was running a family office, he grew in 8 years if my source is correct 200 million into 10 billions. At first he tried to speed up the process by cheating, he got caught up in several insider trading scandals so then he tried something else which was leverage. And blew up. His positions being so big makes it even worse, and being concentrated, such a whale exiting crashes these stocks completely. Even the big company Baidu lost 50% of its market cap. Us plebes don't even come close. Even a "large" 1 million dollar account is 1/10,000 th of his 10 billion. I am not encouraging anyone to be a degen gambler I'm saying someone that lives in the west and has been profitable might think "I am willing to risk these 5000 euros", such an account can be built back even by simply working at mcdonalds for a while. The gambling type that risks everything is not the type that ever manages to be profitable. Still, while small we might want to take on a bit more risk, a reasonable amount, to hopefully speed up the process a bit. But this is not the only tool and used after all the other stuff improving etc. So here's perhaps an idea to be looked at. Several companies share prices dropped massively, that's not some legit regular price discovery, the price was destroyed because of a whale causing a fire sale. The term "oversold" could maybe be applied here. Where are all the retail gamblers? Aren't they buying this time? They always chase crashes. Scared? Or maybe too small, or maybe they sold already when the price slightly bounced and they were up 1% LOL!  6- Improve a strategy RR & WR OR allow for a lower PF but get more signals Once you have a working strategy you still improve as an investor but the strategy itself should not be getting optimised all the time or something is wrong. Until we get it right we keep backtesting and working out the contours and details of our strategy, we insist on it to trade it correctly like improving a skill, then once this is done we look for something else and just run it making sure to still give it some time.  7- Add another strategy An obvious way to get more setups hence more profits is to get a new strategy, but this is done only when the previous one(s) is mastered. You can expect this to take 3 months to a couple of years. And it can interfere with your focus of the other one, it can also be somewhat correlated so have to watch out for that. It is a big project. Does not mean we can't always be on the lookout for new strategies and new knowledge, just don't always try trading new strategies, just put the "potential" ones in a corner of your head (and excel DB) and progressively come back to it until at some point after months or years you gathered enough info and really get into it all in. There are several strategies, for stocks in particular I have been looking at, for example I have been posting here and there on this site about the "dead stock bounce" thing but I never traded it, maybe one day I'll start doing so. For now I still have a whole lot to learn about Forex plus a couple of commodities. The easier way to avoid correlations and other troubles is to have a strong trend following strategy, and then another one for other scenarios. And of course when you end up taking a trend following buy on a currency make sure your other strategy buy is not on a correlated one...  8- Trade more assets More uncorrelated assets, if they do not hurt performance = more cashing 🤑🤑🤑! Especially when not much is moving with Forex, just going back and forth, and here you have the S&P 5000 that broke 4000 without hesitation after whales got liquidated and banks had to take the hit, it even gapped up, a bit early to cry victory and stonks time horizons are not the same as Forex ones, but for now it is STRONG and it sure got my attention. Been buying since September/October but been more eager recently. Not a simple snap of fingers and here we go, adding instruments to our activity is a big project, just like a business that sells printers to China starting to produce protection for cellphones for Taïwan or whatever. People think abstract = easy. I'm laughing since it is the opposite. The more intellectual something is, the more difficulty gets ignored, "let's just use a magic wand to make covid disappear" ye good luck with that, what a mentality. Next let's ask devs to code 10 thousand lines a day like it's physical labor and let's ask a scientist picked at random to find the cure for cancer it's easy very little manual labor. There is such a lack of respect for mental activities, it's beyond.  9- Push these winners to the limit S&P again. I've said a while ago I wanted to get really aggressive with the S&P 500 and Bitcoin, I just contained myself 1-2 hours ago to not buy more S&P because I am already ***** deep at that point. This is not the same as being the typical dumb money and greedy pigs that gamble and get wiped out and never are heard form again. If you have this urge to go on the offensive real hard, but within reason as a skilled trader, you can improve your performance. Just don't go all Bill Hwang. Ah if he went aggressive but was 40/40/20 in stocks/forex & cme futures/safe holdings and a bit less concentrated (or in larger cap stuff) he'd be alive now. Humans evolved to "survive against all odds", agility intelligence and social structures helped. "Never give up and survive against all odds" this is not what the markets reward. Markets rewards ambush predators. Get your example from the cheetah, these superfast cats are like bullets. They patiently watch their preys, as we should. Then they run. And 90% or more of the time the prey gets away. The cheetah could easily catch it but is it worth it? NO. A cheetah will not take a diminished risk reward, it will "give up" all the time, "oh noes" says the slow human meatbag, "never give up". Well the cats that survive, that's who. Capitalism 101. The longer they chase, the more calories they spend. Costs go up. Risk also goes up, as they get tired they become more vulnerable AND these seconds they spend chasing they are not paying attention to anything else. So they become less likely to escape or fight off danger, while being much less alert of danger for a long while. The risks are not worth it, and the costs either. Even while being patient and carefully choosing their prey and the moment they go in, 9 out of 10 get away. So they might lose let's say 200 kcalories each time. But now is the good part, once they get one secured, they don't just take a quick bite and run away like all these bagholding profit snatching retail traders. They are destroying that prey. 30,000 calories at once. One big meal. They eat everything. Winrate 5-10% reward/risk 150. Now that's a good trader that extracts all he can from his winners. 10- You can't so learn to be patient RIP. We can always keep improving and doing more and the sky is the limit, but no matter what we do we have to accept that we are going to have to be patient and no one just goes from poor to super rich overnight. It's so hard, but there is no choice. Got to be patient. We are not the FED or the ECB we do not own a money printer.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by MrRenev
2
Jalapablo's 10 Golden GuidelinesThese are some of the golden guidelines I live by when I swing trade. They've done me well over the years, they've kept me safe, and they've made me a ton of money. I wanted to share them, especially with new crypto traders just getting started. I had to figure all this stuff out on my own (and it cost me a lot of money). I believe every trader should come up with a set of his/her own personal rules like this and keep it in their trading journal. Wishing safe trading and prosperity to all! NOTE: I am not a financial advisor. Join me and trade my charts at your own risk. *If you have strong hands, patience, and like big wins and big money, follow me. I track all the USD & USDT-paired cryptocurrencies on Coinbase Pro, Kraken, Gemini, Binance, Kucoin, along with many other coins & tokens on various exchanges, and regularly seek out the most profitable swing trades available. All my charts are clean, straightforward, and easy to follow. My TA is based on Wyckoff phase analysis, Elliott wave count & Fibonacci extensions. If some of my sell zones seem conservative, it's only because I believe in exiting while still holding the fat money bags! The more intrepid traders can let the winners run a bit longer. Good luck and safe trading to all! **Unfortunately, I can not give custom entry and exit prices, stop-loss percentages, or offer advice on when and how to take profit other than my own entries and targets which are already on the charts. Thank you for understanding. Trade wins for March 2021 (Total Gains: 527.58%) 1. Filecoin: 31.92% in 14 days 2. Kyber Network: 12.09% in 7 days 3. Loom Network: 66% in 10 days 4. Ravencoin: 78.55% in 11 days 5. NMR: 19% in 2 days 6. Elastos: 178% in 15 days 7. Qtum: 66.84% in 24 days 8. Filecoin: 24% in 5 days 9. AION: 22.83% in 2 days 10. Flamingo: 28.35% in 1 Day Trade wins for April 2021 1. Kyber Network: 35.91% in 10 Days
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by jalapablo
9
Bearish Cycle in the MarketBearish Cycle in the Market 1) "market maker spread" is the maximum and minimum of the initial channel. This is usually 25-50 pips high. 2) "Stop Hunt" usually consists of three movements that can occur in a short time. Three impulses will be marked on the "live" candle. The end of the stop hunt results in the extreme value (LOD) of the cycle and gives the first signal of where the reversal will occur. 3) "Zone Shift" is a movement intended both for accumulation and for keeping the trading volume concluded at the maximum of the price movement. According to my observations, I can say that after the "Zone Shift" consolidation is formed, volume continues to accumulate. In these places, you can just look for an entry point. 4) A large impulse move during the initial channel may still be worked by resetting the initial channel hi / lo AFTER the move occurs and then looking for stop runs from the reset channel. 5) Correct entry in the second stage with “peak formation” will use the “zone shift” to take profit. 6) Use the bigger picture (1 hr & 4 hr time frame) to identify levels for possible entries. At the lowest level (15min), take trades ONLY from the LOD / HOD. ------------------------- Additionally: Duration of consolidation after stopping hunting before HOD / LOD Difficult to define. We do not know how long a major player will take to gain a position and we do not know how much volume he needs. A) The previously accumulated volume can be quite large, so no consolidation is required and a V-shaped bottom occurs. B) Additional time may be required to accumulate volume . C) Additional time may be required followed by the expected search for a second stop (wide W-pattern) ------------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support with likes. Thanks for your support!
Education
by DeGRAM
5
Bearish Cycle in the MarketBearish Cycle in the Market 1) "market maker spread" is the maximum and minimum of the initial channel. This is usually 25-50 pips high. 2) "Stop Hunt" usually consists of three movements that can occur in a short time. Three impulses will be marked on the "live" candle. The end of the stop hunt results in the extreme value (LOD) of the cycle and gives the first signal of where the reversal will occur. 3) "Zone Shift" is a movement intended both for accumulation and for keeping the trading volume concluded at the maximum of the price movement. According to my observations, I can say that after the "Zone Shift" consolidation is formed, volume continues to accumulate. In these places, you can just look for an entry point. 4) A large impulse move during the initial channel may still be worked by resetting the initial channel hi / lo AFTER the move occurs and then looking for stop runs from the reset channel. 5) Correct entry in the second stage with “peak formation” will use the “zone shift” to take profit. 6) Use the bigger picture (1 hr & 4 hr time frame) to identify levels for possible entries. At the lowest level (15min), take trades ONLY from the LOD / HOD. ------------------------- Additionally: Duration of consolidation after stopping hunting before HOD / LOD Difficult to define. We do not know how long a major player will take to gain a position and we do not know how much volume he needs. A) The previously accumulated volume can be quite large, so no consolidation is required and a V-shaped bottom occurs. B) Additional time may be required to accumulate volume. C) Additional time may be required followed by the expected search for a second stop (wide W-pattern) ------------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support with likes. Thanks for your support!
Editors' picks
Education
by DeGRAM
5
Bullish Cycle in the MarketBullish Cycle in the Market 1) Use the higher time frames to determine the direction of the trend, the boundaries of the consolidation channels, and look for the entry point on the lower time frames. 3) "Zone Shift" is a movement intended both for accumulation and for keeping the trading volume concluded at the maximum of the price movement. According to my observations, I can say that after the "Zone Shift" consolidation is formed, volume continues to accumulate. In these places, you can just look for an entry point. 4) "Stop Hunt" usually consists of three movements that can occur in a short time. Three impulses will be marked on the "live" candle. The end of the stop hunt results in the extreme value (LOD) of the cycle and gives the first signal of where the reversal will occur. 2) Correct entry in the second stage with “peak formation” will use the “zone shift” to take profit. 5) Impulse move during the initial channel may still be worked by resetting the initial channel hi / lo AFTER the move occurs. 6) The high and low of the initial channel is called the "market maker spread". This it typically 25-50 pips in height. ------------------------- Additionally: Duration of consolidation after stopping hunting before HOD / LOD Difficult to define. We do not know how long a major player will take to gain a position and we do not know how much volume he needs. A) The previously accumulated volume can be quite large, so no consolidation is required and a V-shaped bottom occurs. B) Additional time may be required to accumulate volume . C) Additional time may be required followed by the expected search for a second stop (wide W-pattern) ------------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support with likes. Thanks for your support!
Education
by DeGRAM
9
Bullish Cycle in the MarketBullish Cycle in the Market 1) Use the higher time frames to determine the direction of the trend, the boundaries of the consolidation channels, and look for the entry point on the lower time frames. 3) "Zone Shift" is a movement intended both for accumulation and for keeping the trading volume concluded at the maximum of the price movement. According to my observations, I can say that after the "Zone Shift" consolidation is formed, volume continues to accumulate. In these places, you can just look for an entry point. 4) "Stop Hunt" usually consists of three movements that can occur in a short time. Three impulses will be marked on the "live" candle. The end of the stop hunt results in the extreme value (LOD) of the cycle and gives the first signal of where the reversal will occur. 2) Correct entry in the second stage with “peak formation” will use the “zone shift” to take profit. 5) Impulse move during the initial channel may still be worked by resetting the initial channel hi / lo AFTER the move occurs. 6) The high and low of the initial channel is called the "market maker spread". This it typically 25-50 pips in height. ------------------------- Additionally: Duration of consolidation after stopping hunting before HOD / LOD Difficult to define. We do not know how long a major player will take to gain a position and we do not know how much volume he needs. A) The previously accumulated volume can be quite large, so no consolidation is required and a V-shaped bottom occurs. B) Additional time may be required to accumulate volume. C) Additional time may be required followed by the expected search for a second stop (wide W-pattern) ------------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support with likes. Thanks for your support!
Editors' picks
Education
by DeGRAM
4
Risk Management: Entry in the impulsive phrase of price action Hello everyone: Welcome back to another video on risk management. Today I want to discuss a few possible entries that we can do in the market when we spot the next impulsive phrase of the market condition. I will break down the 3 types of entries that I always look for when I am about to execute a trade. Sometimes we will see all 3 entries present themselves, and sometimes we might only see 1 or 2. So let's dig into these entries. All entries are based on the continuation or reversal structure on the LTF mostly. So I need to see a LTF correction forming and potentially completing before setting any of these entries. In addition, they have to be aligned with the HTF overall direction and bias. Multi-time frame analysis is key. All my entries are stop entry order, meaning the market needs to hit a certain price before getting triggered. Buy Stop or Sell Stop order. You may see variations of these entries in different strategies or styles, but here are my take on them and my way of using them in my trading. Let me give a few examples of each on different markets and pairs to show the potential move and possible entry criteria. Below are same other Risk Management you should know in trading. Risk Management 101 Risk Management: How to set a Take Profit (TP) for your trades Risk Management: How to Enter and set SL and TP for an impulse move in the market Risk Management: How to scale in the impulsive phrase of the market condition? Risk Management: Combine everything you learn to prevent blowing a trading account Impulse VS Correction Continuation and Reversal Correction Multi-time frame analysis
OANDA:XAGUSDEducation
by jojofang0901
24
Trading Plan that will help you become consistently profitableIn my trading career beyond having a strategy (actually multiple depending on market state and asset class) to base my trades on nothing has ever been as important as having a Trading plan. In this post I want to share with you my personal trading plan to help you create a set of rules that will help you stick to your plan and keep your emotions in check so that you can actually follow your trading strategy and become a consistently profitable trader. Something that was and still is key for me is the following realization: Never get attached to your opinion or view of why something should happen. The market is in fact always right and based on nothing but irrationality since its made by humans so the movements of the market do not have to make sense and at more times then not will not make sense. Trading is simply a mind game. Markets are a result of mass psychology which leads to exploitable edges. Mastering your own psychology is key to keep following the strategy that defines your edge. So now without further ado my trading plan template that has helped me so much over the years and I hope will help you as well: **General Rules** 1. Never enter a trade without a plan (TP,SL) 2. Once you are in a trade stick to the plan 3. Its ok to be wrong its not about being right its about making money 4. Be patient do not act on FOMO 5. Do not chase the market 6. Let your winners run and cut your losses short **The 5 fundamental truths** 1. Anything can happen. 2. You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money. 3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. 4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another. 5. Every moment in the market is unique. **Rules of consistency**I AM A CONSISTENT WINNER BECAUSE: 1. I objectively identify my edges. 2. I have predefined risk of every trade. 3. I completely accept risk or I am willing to let go of the trade. 4. I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation. 5. I pay myself as the market makes money available to me. 6. I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors. 7. I understand the absolute necessity of these principles of consistent success and, therefore, I never violate them. **Risk and Money Management** Do not increase the standard trade size before you doubled the account. 1. The maximum amount you are allowed to lose in a day is $XXX.  2. The maximum amount you are allowed to lose on any single trade is $XXX.  3. The maximum number of losing trades in a row you are allowed to have in a day before you stop trading is three.  4. The maximum number of losing trades you are allowed to have in a day before you stop trading is five. (You may have had a win or two between losses, but there is a time to stop trading.) The maximum number of losing trades in the same direction you are allowed to take in a day before you stop trading is three.  1. If you are up $XXX on a single trade, you will put a profit floor of $XXX underneath the current price to protect a portion of those profits.  2. If you are up $XXX on a single trade, you will take the money and close out the trade.  3. If you are up $XXX for the day, you will take the rest of the day off, stay away from the trading screens, and do something you enjoy doing—other than trading !4. If you are up $XXX for the month, you will put a profit floor of $XXX underneath the month's profits to protect a portion of those profits. If you are up $XXX for the month, you will take the rest of the month off, stay away from the trading screens, and do something you enjoy doing—other than trading! Take a vacation, sleep late and read books, or do something else fun.
Education
by TradingPit
3
Does news events affect price action analysis in trading ?Hello everyone: Today I want to discuss news events in trading. Often when a news event comes out in the market, we get some sort of volatility and we get a strong spike/impulse. However, does news events affect our ways of understanding price action analysis ? Let's take a look at a few examples of the recent FOMC volatility that happened in the forex, indices and commodity market. Most of the market had a sharp quick move to one direction, hinting a sign of weakness in USD/JPY..etc. However, all of them ended up with a reversal impulse, and recovered all the price from the volatility. So, what can we take away from this ? News certain creates volatility, but not the overall price action trending direction. We may get a temporary short term move, but eventually the market recovers it, and resumes its original direction. Often beginner/newcomer traders will try to “jump” onto the news momentum, but usually end too late, and they will take a BE or losses. We can not control the outcome of the news or whether the news will be positive or negative towards our trades, but what we can control is our entry, SL, TP, risk management, emotions and mindset. Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know :) Thank you Jojo
Education
by jojofang0901
18
Make sure to focus on improving in every aspectNote I am using GBPJPY, a favorite of high leverage day gamblers as it has the biggest range of the 30 leverage pairs. I am not "spreading FUD", if day gamblers want to lose their money I do not care. Actually I like it. Finding success is satisfying but additionally watching others fail has an added sweetness that is irresistible. This is simply a reminder to be logical, and since we try to always better ourselves we have to make sure to better ourselves on all aspects. It sounds simple like this but I assure you it is simple when you are told it, like hindsight. People think they are supermen that think of everything, never miss anything, and are going to buy at bottoms and sell at tops. Well to people that think that: good for you. I am no superman. And believe me I'm not being humble I hold myself to high standards and have a big pride. Warren Buffett is no superman either. Neither is George Soros. Nor Jim Simons, he made real money decades after buying his first future contract and needed to hire someone to help him out with stocks which he did not know that well. You may ask "But MrRenev how do I improve on myself and my trading? I do not even know where to start, I do not even know what to improve in". Well you force yourself to have a rational organised mind, write it down; and you take your chart screen, sit in front of it, and stay there for the next 50 years. ==> Read, read, read. Watch videos, read articles like this one or (I'm not sure if I can mention potential competitors), go on forums, read books if you want. I would call this part the "fun" part, or the leisure part. Watch videos you find interesting, even read memeposts on the internet, as long as you can tell what is bs what is not, even absolute trash will teach you how others think or will make you think or will show you others mistakes. ==> The second part, the laborious one (it's okay when you get into it you won't see the hours). You open excel, you open tradingview, you get a tool to save screenshots automatically, you open the calculator, you open a CME window, you open notepad/sublimetext. And you grind. You take in vast amounts of data, process it, look at the stats, and you learn. You ask questions such as "what are other participants doing? What are their holding periods" and so on. So here is the secret holy grail: R.D. Wyckoff started as a stock runner for a New York brokerage at 15 years old. He started speculating at least 10 years later, after having learned much from the charts and his clients mistakes. W.D. Gann is the son of a cotton farmer and started hearing and learning about markets at a young age. He then went to a business school (useless) and worked for a broker, like Wyckoff he learned from his clients mistakes and then started proprietary trading. George Soros started in 1954 as a clerk, then arbitrage trader, in 1959 he was an analyst for euro stocks, until 1963 when he became a VP. He started a fund in 1966 with his employer money (correct me if I am wrong) to try out his trading strategies - developed during his 12 years in the business. Don't just "try to make money", improve on everything and it will come with time. Remember, the most toxic tryhards are the best players in sports and video games. Same thing here. If your goal is not to be "the best I can" and just "make money", McDonald's has job offers available, good luck as a burger flipper, and I'm not sure I'd want to eat those.
Education
by MrRenev
3
Building a good system and writing down a cheat sheetThis is an idea about having a good thought process. The image of a sniper is often used. In the cover of the idea (screenshot at the end in case it does not display correctly) I put a few examples. I have not seen this on the internet and being shown by course providers, and how could they know, the internet is full of get rich quick with 5 minutes a day feel good messages and they do not trade themselves. Build a system that eliminates the potential for mistakes or randomness then rinse and repeat perfectly. Writing this down is especially useful when juggling with various strategies which we often end up with when we spent a fair amount of time playing. Here is an example of a breakout trade: And this becomes: Screenshot of the diagram:
Education
by MrRenev
2
Expanding Structures/Patterns in Price Action AnalysisHello everyone: Welcome back to another price action structures/pattern educational video. Today I want to discuss the expanding structure that I always see in the market. These structures/patterns are a bit more advanced, as they are not so clear on whether it's a continuation or a reversal correction. Lets dig into some typical forms that I always see in the market, and discuss the possible opportunities we can get from them. Expanding structure can come in all sorts of sizes and shapes. They are not the typical channel, flag, pennant/triangle, Head and Shoulder that we usually encounter. The key here is to identify them and observe if we are going to get trend continuations, or trend reversal after the correction finished. Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know below. I will include all other types of price action structures/corrections that I have discussed in the past below, for everyone’s references. Thank you Jojo Impulse VS Correction Continuation and Reversal Correction Multi-time frame analysis Continuation Bull/Bear Flag Reversal Ascending/Descending Channel Reversal Double Top/Bottom Reversal Head & Shoulder Pattern Reversal “M” and “W” style pattern Reversal Impulse Price Action
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by jojofang0901
41
Trading Full-Time As a Career - What You MUST Know?Hi Traders, apologize for the recent delay in educational content publishing due to my schedule. Today's topic is regarding " Trading as a full-time career ". I believe if you're here reading this, most likely you're either a full-time trader or someone who's looking to pursue your passion as a full-time trader. Let's talk about what are some of the considerations and mindset that you must possess prior stepping into this milestone. Consistency • Do you have a trading plan that has been tested and worked profitably for a long period of time? • Emotional detachment is the key trait I find in all successful traders. Always be a student of the market, admit your mistakes, have less opinion in the market, and draw yourself out of the negative emotions. • Do you have a consistent plan of action? Do you have some back-tested strategies that has been proven with a positive expectancy in the long-term? • Are you a consistently profitable trader yet? If you're still juggling around maybe it's not the best time yet to consider trading full-time. • Do you know your numbers? What's your maximum drawdown period? What's your average return? Mentality (Are you prepared?) • Trading full-time requires an undivided passion and attention, take it as a business not an interest nor hobby. • Money comes and goes fast in trading. If you're not being humble, its just the matter of time where the market humbles you. • You must understand what brings you to this stage. It is the amount of relentless effort behind the scene. Avoid being outcome-oriented and set unrealistic monetary goals (eg. I want to make $ XX amount per month). • Trading isn't a 9-5 job, understand that there will be drawdown periods where you lose money or breakeven. Avoid seeing them as setbacks or obstacles, take them as lessons to improve yourself instead. Trading is all about emotional discipline and having an edge in the market. Back-up plan • Never ever put a large portion of your savings into your trading capital, understand that anything could happen. Set aside a minimum of one year of living expenses, invest the remaining. • You MUST have a plan B. What if you found out trading isn't your passion later on? What if things aren't according to your expectation? Always have the worst case scenario in your mind, in that sense you're always being resilient and well-prepared. • Majority of the profitable traders have other supplemental income sources to carry off the burdens during their drawdown period. Acquire other high income skills and monetize them. • Despite the importance of diversification, ensure you've mastered your trading skills before you jump onto another things. Remember that an overly wide diversification is only required when investors do not know what they are doing. "In trading/ investing it's not about how much you make, but how much you don't lose." - Bernard Baruch Comment down below what's your trading goals in 2021! Trade safe as usual. Do follow my profile for daily fx forecast & educational content.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDEducation
by TraderNeoh
13
Winrates required to breakeven relative to stop & target sizesTaking AUDUSD as an example here, the spread is not the smallest relative to ATR nor the largest. The formula to get a breakeven winrate is 1/(1+reward/risk). Because we want winrate*reward = loserate*risk <=> winrate*reward = (1-winrate)*risk <=> winrate*reward + winrate*risk = risk (never 0) <=> winrate = 1/(1+reward/risk) For example with a 20 pip stop, base risk to reward of 1 to 5, and 2 point spread, reward or winners = 98 pips, risk or losers = 22 pips. So the reward/risk = 98/22 = 4.4545454545... So the breakeven winrate will be 1/5.4545454545 = 18.33% That is just the breakeven winrate. Profitability will of course depend on: - Frequency: How many trades you are able to take - Winrate: How much higher than the breakeven winrate it is - Position size: Profitability does not go up the higher it goes If a strategy or trader only gets a couple of trades a year and his winrate is barely above breakeven, he will not be very profitable, and it will be very easy to lose all profits. And as the stops & targets in pips go down, the hit rates needed to actually make money go up exponentially up to a point where the trader needs to own a crystal ball and be able to predict the future. Take costs into consideration with any strategy and before placing any trade. And 1 other thing to keep in mind is spreads can also fluctuate, depending on the broker, at certain hours they can go up 3 fold, sometimes more, it can really hurt. A cool thing you may notice is with a stop of 20 pips, the spread/stop = 10% and also the winrate to breakeven is increased by 10% for both risk to rewards. Same thing with the 5 pips stop. And so on. The required winrate to breakeven increases by 100*(spread/stop)%. Easy to quickly calculate when you are considering trades.
Education
by MrRenev
Rolls Royce Trade Review - 20% profit in just 3 weeks!Hi traders, This is the first in a series of trade reviews that I will be doing for TradingView viewers where each week I will review one or two of my trades. We will outline why we entered them and also how they went. This is meant only for educational purposes for you to learn some of the skills that I implement when trading. In this trade I used a very simple break and retest of a key level as the investment strategy. If you have any questions then please let me know in the comments.
LSE:RR.Education
by JoelWarby
3