How to Assess Your Trading Performance|Consistency & Perspective
Hey traders,
👨🏻💻I am trading forex for more than 8 years.
During the last 5 years, I am actively posting my analysis & trades on TradingView.
Growing my audience, it was very peculiar for me to contemplate the reaction of my followers to my trading performance.
(by the way, we must say thanks to tradingview where the posting system does not allow to delete the posted trades so that each and every author is easily backtestable).
👩👩👧👧👨👨👧👧Those who follow me at least a half a year know that occasionally I have winning streaks when 9 out of 10 of my forecasts play out nicely. Sometimes, however, I face the drawdowns and catch a sequence of losing trades.
And sometimes the performance is mixed with the probabilities being on my side slightly.
🥇While the reaction to winning streaks is quite predictable:
I am praised by the members and get nice tips.
The reaction to losing streaks is worth discussing in detail.
It turned out that quite a huge portion of a trading community has a completely wrong understanding of a trading nature.
🤬The single loss is considered by them to be a failure, a mistake.
Facing the sequence of losses, they quickly become negatively biased to the person that they have just recently praised.
With the continuation of a drawdown, they blame the analyst and launch a barrage of criticism towards him.
🔍Then they are in a search again. They are looking for a trader that will be constantly right. Catching the new one during a winning streak, the cycle repeats.
At some moment such people become disappointed in trading and drop this business...
❗️Losses, losing streaks and negative days/weeks/months are inevitable. If you want to become a full-time trader, you must be prepared for the fact that trading won't give you a stable income.
Your equity curve will be in constant fluctuation.
Your goal in this game is simply to lose less than you make.
You must become disciplined enough to keep following the rules of your trading strategy no matter what.
You must learn to be consistent in your actions.
You should learn to perceive losing trades not as a failure but simply as the moment when the market takes its share.
Feeding you, giving you the opportunity to make money out of thin air,
the market definitely has a right to claim its dividends from you.
⭐️Change your mindset, learn to lose and the magic thing will happen.
❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️
Trading Plan
Master Pending Orders (Sell Limit) 4-4Pending order is an instruction to open a position when the current price reaches the order level. There are four type of pending orders:
Master Pending Orders: (Sell Limit)
Sell limit – an order to open a sell position at a higher price than the price at the moment of placing the order
Master Pending Orders (Buy Limit)3-4Pending order is an instruction to open a position when the current price reaches the order level. There are four type of pending orders:
Master Pending Orders: (Buy Limit)
Buy limit – an order to open a buy position at a lower price than the price at the moment of placing the order.
Master Pending Orders (Sell Stop)2-4Pending order is an instruction to open a position when the current price reaches the order level. There are four type of pending orders:
Master Pending Orders (Sell Stop)
Sell stop – an order to open a sell position at a lower price than the price at the moment of placing the order
Master Pending Orders (Buy Stop) 1-4Master Pending Orders: (Buy Stop)
Pending order is an instruction to open a position when the current price reaches the order level. There are four type of pending orders:
Buy Stop – an order to open a buy position a t a higher price than the price at the moment of placing the order.
The 5 Steps To Becoming A TraderThe 5 Steps to becoming a trader
Step One: Unconscious Incompetence.
This is the first step you take when starting to look into trading. You know that its a good way of making money because you've heard so many things about it and heard of so many millionaires. Unfortunately, just like when you first desire to drive a car you think it will be easy - after all, how hard can it be? Price either moves up or down - what's the big secret to that then.
Step Two - Conscious Incompetence
This is where you realize that there is more work involved in trading and that you might actually have to work a few things out. You consciously realize that you are an incompetent trader - you don't have the skills or the insight to turn a regular profit.
Step 3 - The Eureka Moment
Towards the end of stage two you begin to realize that it's not the system that is making the difference. You realize that its actually possible to make money with a simple moving average and nothing else IF you can get your head and money management right You start to read books on the psychology of trading and identify with the characters portrayed in those books and finally comes the eureka moment.
Step 4 - Conscious Competence
You are making trades whenever your system tells you to. You take losses just as easily as you take wins You now let your winners run to their conclusion fully
accepting the risk and knowing that your system makes more money than it looses and when you're on a loser you close it swiftly with little pain to account.
Step Five - Unconscious Competence
Now we’re cooking - just like driving a car, every day you get in your seat and trade - you do everything now on an unconscious level. You are running on autopilot. You start to pick the really big trades and getting 200 pips in a day doesn't make you any more excited that getting 1 pips.
The 10 Golden Rules Of Forex TradingForex markets can be volatile and uncertain at the best of times, and inexperienced traders can easily end up chasing their losses. Yet it is precisely this volatility that gives you the potential for major profits. These 10 rules of Forex trading may give you the best chance of landing on the winning side. Please remember, however, that trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and profit is not guaranteed.
The 10 Golden Rules Of Forex Trading:
1) Avoid Forex trading software that claims to guarantee returns. No Forex software can assure you of winning trades.
2) Always use a demo trading account. We have all heard that practice makes perfect, and it is true.
3) Forex trading can be highly stressful- avoid emotional trading. Whenever real money is changing hands, the risk of loss is ever-present.
4) Invest in a solid Forex education. Knowledge is power-we all know that. Forex tools will improve your trading performance.
5) You can learn to trade Forex successfully. Learn from reliable Forex strategist or mentors, you tubers, your success is far greater.
6) Manage your Forex capital wisely. Forex markets change hourly, session or daily characterized by high volatility. Use stop loss, entry and exits always.
7) Manage your investment-per-trade wisely. This is a crucial aspect of Forex trading. Never invest more than 2% of your account on one trade.
8) Use common sense. Strong currency against a weak currency. Major news. Use common sense when judging the effect of current/upcoming events.
9) Ensure you use risk management strategies at all times. Limit your amount you trade per position. Using knowledge, signals and technical strategies.
10) Be especially cautious about overextending yourself with leverage. Leverage is a two sided coin- can magnify profits and losses.
By following these 10 golden rules to Forex trading, you should find yourself in a much better position over the long term. Your focus should always be on trading currency pairs that you understand, in a way that does not expose you to too much risk. Read up about market conditions likely to impact upon the currencies you’re trading, limit your leverage to an affordable amount, and use a demo trading account to understand the market dynamics.
Compounding "Most Powerful Force"★ Compounding interest is a powerful investment tool. By reinvesting your trading earnings, you can significantly boost your returns over the long term.
Compounding refers to interest which is calculated not only on the initial principal but also the accumulated interest of prior periods. Compound interest differs from simple interest in that simple interest is calculated solely as a percentage of the initial principal deposit.
As a result, compounding accelerates returns as you are earning not only interest on your principal, but interest on your interest.
Anyone can benefit from compounding interest. The longer your money compounds, the faster it grows. For example, if you had a $5,000 Forex trading account earn 2% per day for one year (260 business day) and just let account grow, you will make over $800,000.00 US within the 1st year.
You can accelerate your earning power even more by contributing principal payments to your accounts periodically. Even small deposits will realize significant benefits with compounding over the course of time. This is just by trading Forex, if you contribute additional monies, then account will grow quicker.
"Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it... he who doesn't... pays it."- Albert Einstein
Note: There are free daily compounding calculators online- for you too put your own account size in, % in, days for see how much compound interest would substantially and quickly increase your Forex trading account- just let your account account, with having a plan, risk management and patience.
Set and Forget TradingThe Psychological Advantages of Set and Forget Trading Regimes
Set and forget trading is a phrase that I coined in about a year back while taking classes with my students. It’s a trading approach that works if you follow it, to put it simply. For this reason, I write about it often, and my students no doubt understand the main benefits of the set and forget trading approach.
However, in today’s lesson, I want to focus on the psychological aspects and benefits of the set and forget approach and why it will help your trading performance, based on my personal experiences.
I get many of my students who email me regularly with success stories after they have adopted the set and forget approach. Hopefully, more of you will start trialing this concept because there is nothing that makes me happier than hearing my students’ success stories.
Set and forget trading works partially because of the way it helps you to systemize the entry, stop and target of your trades. By allowing the edge to play out uninterrupted, without you fiddling with it for arbitrary reasons, your long-term trading performance will improve simply as a ‘side-effect’.
However, there are also some very important mental benefits of set and forget trading which I don’t often discuss.
In this lesson, I want to focus on the psychological benefits of set and forget trading to help more of you make the mental transition to this style of trading. By committing to the trade completely before you even place it, it means you’re identifying the trade, placing the orders and walking away with very little monitoring. It also means being at peace and avoiding the emotional ups and downs that come with watching your trades as they are live. It means walking away and letting the market ‘do the work’ whilst you go do something more productive or fun. It means removing yourself from the temptations of chart-watching and getting influenced by chart whipsaws from news releases, short-term volatility and so on. In short, it means setting and forgetting!
Mental advantages…
By understanding the mental advantages of set and forget trading, perhaps you will gain a deeper understanding of its power and begin trading this way sooner.
Significantly Reduce Stress & Emotional Ups & Downs
Trading can be as stressful or as stress-free as you want it to be, it all depends on what you do. If you sit there staring at the charts all night when you should be asleep, you are doing to drive-up your body’s stress response and your cortisol (stress hormone) levels will sky-rocket both from the lack of sleep and from over-thinking about your trades .
Now, as if the stress wasn’t bad enough, it’s going to get worse. You’re also going to hurt your trading performance by doing what I described above, this will work to further increase your stress levels. Eventually, you will be tired, angry, frustrated, on the verge of tears and left with an empty trading account.
By employing my set and forget trading approach , you can eliminate all this stress, worry and losing! Show me a set and forget trader and I will show you a stress-free trader who is on the path to trading success. There have been studies done on investors / traders and their trading performance in relation to their trading frequency, and they always show that less-involved traders do better over the long-run. Similarly, even though trading is a male-dominated arena, when women do step into it they tend to do much better on average than men. Why? Simple; they do not over-trade as much and they do not risk too much like many men do. The reason has to do with men having higher testosterone levels (a hormone that makes men take more risks and feel over-confident, things that can hurt you in trading). I have an article in which I discuss this female vs. male trading phenomena more in-depth, you can write to me to send you the article if you would like to get it: What is The Weakest Link in Your Trading? Suffice it to say, us men are not always right, and we can and should learn from women sometimes and trading seems to be one area where we can benefit from their seemingly innate ability to set and forget their trades.
Help Cure Your Obsessive Chart-Watching
Have you ever heard of positive reinforcement? It’s when you get a reward from doing the right thing, this will then reinforce whatever the ‘right thing’ was that you did so that hopefully you keep doing it. It works on kids and it can work on adults too, especially in trading.
When you watch charts all the time, you are probably going to lose money, so the chart-watching is a negative behavior. The tricky part here is that the act of chart-watching can feel very good while you’re doing it (dopamine – the chemical in your brain that gives you the rush you get from the ‘hope’ of making money), so you are essentially getting a mental reward from committing a negative behavior and you are reinforcing a negative behavior by continuing to do this. Therefore, traders get stuck in an addictive cycle of watching charts, making the same mistakes over and over and losing money.
But, YOU CAN STOP THIS and YOU CAN REVERSE IT! By utilizing set and forget trading you can literally begin to reinforce positive behavior rather than negative. This will work like a positive feedback loop in which the improved performance you see from behaving properly in the markets works to make you want to continue that positive behavior. It’s no different than someone who sticks to a regime of exercise over a period of months; soon enough the endorphins and improved strength and energy-levels begin to reinforce the behavior of working out consistently. Yes, in the beginning it may seem like a ‘boring’ chore you don’t want to do and it may even hurt a little, but rest assured, that pain is good for you.
Setting and forgetting your trades is truly the key to eliminating almost every negative trading behavior that traders have. You need to implement this sooner than later.
A man smarter than me once said; “Suffer the pain of discipline or suffer the pain of regret”. That means, pay your dues, be disciplined now and it will pay off later, or you can continue to act lazy and undisciplined and you will suffer the pain of regret later.
Sleep at Night – Know What You Stand to Lose or Make
Sleep is critical to all physical and mental process in the human body. There are thousands of studies on this. I can tell you for a 100% iron-clad fact that IF you are losing sleep from watching charts and worrying about losing too much or not winning enough, you are hurting your trading performance and you are starting down the road to reinforcing negative trading habits as we discussed in point 2.
When you are using set and forget trading, your stop loss and profit targets are pre-defined, so you know what you stand to lose and what you stand to win on any given trade. I can tell you from experience, this makes it a lot easier to get and stay asleep at night so don’t under-estimate this benefit!
This brings up another point: When you know what you stand to lose or win on a trade it goes a long way towards eliminating greedy behavior. Greed is a huge reason traders fail. It causes them to hold trades too long whether the trade is moving in their favor or against them. How many times have you been in a big winning trade and you didn’t take the profit because you had no profit target or because you moved your profit target from its initial setting? This is greed. Being greedy inevitably causes traders to end up with no money.
Bulls make money, bears make money, Pigs? Pigs get slaughtered! That is one of the oldest Wall Street sayings and it rings louder than perhaps any other, still to this day.
When you set a profit target and stick to it, you aren’t being greedy, so over-time you should end up making money. When you set a stop loss and stick to it, you can pre-define your risk to a dollar amount you’re mentally OK with (potentially) losing. When you adjust your risk properly and you know what you can lose, you should have no problem setting your trade and walking away.
Disclaimer : There is never a 100% certain outcome for any trade and losses can sometimes exceed stop losses due to slippage.
Exercise the Mental Muscles of Routine & Discipline
When you make the commitment to start set and forget trading, you are kicking off a process that is self-reinforcing and will continue to strengthen the longer you use it. The power of routine and discipline, of repeating an effective system or process and staying accountable to THAT, will help you accelerate your development of the proper trading habits .
Once you have the proper trading habits in place you will see improved trading performance which gives rise to a huge surge of trading confidence in both yourself and what you’re doing. This reinforces the routine you started with and it all stems from committing to the set and forget trading approach.
Here is what this looks like in the diagram below. Notice that set and forget is in the center, because it really all starts with that idea – once you commit you will quickly figure out the proper trading routine from the help of my articles and trading courses , then it really starts to almost ‘take care of itself’ as long as you stay disciplined and stick to the set and forget plan.
The set and forget ‘wheel’ of trading success:
Confidence Through Achieving Better Trading Results
Confidence in business, trading or even in your personal life is something that truly is so important that it has no dollar value; it is invaluable. Confidence breeds more confidence and it works to reinforce those positive trading habits we discussed earlier. By trading properly not only are you reinforcing positive trading habits but you’re breeding confidence in yourself and your ability to stick to a plan, this confidence helps you stick to what was working. It’s all a positive feedback loop as I said before.
Confidence is spawned by the momentum of winning trades or at the very least, having better trading experiences and having more control over the capital in your account; the strategic planning that set and forget allows, that results in improved results. It’s not going to happen all at once, but over time, when you master this style of trading , you will start to feel more in control because you’re controlling the things you can and not trying to control the things you can’t (the market’s movement is uncontrollable).
Being more confident will spawn more motivation to continue mastering the act of finding the trade and placing the trade. It’s just like the earlier example I gave of exercise; when you get over the initial ‘pain’ of it or the initial ‘I don’t want to do this feeling’ and you start seeing positive results, it’s going to inject you with a whole boat-load of motivation and confidence that will work to fuel your on-going progress and quest for being the best. This will give you the willpower and discipline you need to make it as a trader.
Conclusion
I focus on the set and forget approach and 95% of the time I will resign to the fact I’m about to lose XYZ or make XYZ on a trade; this works to eliminate the potential of making emotional mistakes. The expectancy of my trading method combined with the set and forget money management approach has helped me, as well as many of my students improve their trading. It’s not an exact science, and of course there will be times trades are adjusted and there are times that no amount of mechanical money management can override the natural human emotion of trading, but we are not after perfection, we are after training and exercising the mind to be able to let go of the need to control the outcomes and control the market, after all the market is going to do what it’s going to do with or without us watching it or trading it. All we can do is control ourselves and our own behaviors in the market and that is what set and forget trading is all about.
Happy trading, CryptoKings!
Do well to follow for more lessons and trading analysis....
YOUR PROFIT FORMULA | Three Essential Ingredients 🤔💭💫
Hey traders, We must admit that it is phenomenally difficult to become a consistently profitable trader.
This journey requires years of practicing and training, constant losses, and nervous breakdowns.
If you are a struggling trader, if you are still looking for your way to succeed in this game, here is the formula that will help you to chase consistent profits.
💰Consistent profits = 📝Trading Strategy + 🤬Emotions + 📈Market Sentiment
Let's discuss each element separately.
📝Trading Strategy:
To be in profit in a long run requires an understanding of what do you actually trade.
You must have strict and objective entry conditions.
You must rely on the objective & verifiable rules for the execution of market analysis.
You must have a plan to follow.
A plan that is backtested and proved its efficiency.
🤬Emotions:
Even the best trading plan, the most accurate trading strategy can be easily beaten by emotions.
Emotional decisions such as revenge trading and early position close
can easily blow the account of any size in a blink of an eye.
The most disappointing thing to note right here is the fact that you can be taught how to execute technical analysis but you can not be taught to control your emotions.
Your main enemy here is yourself and being in a constant battle with your greed and fear it is very easy to go broke.
Only by being humble, disciplined and patient, you can successfully apply a trading strategy.
📈Market Sentiment:
Mastering your emotions and having studied a trading strategy, it looks like it is finally the time to make money.
However, occasionally the market tends to be irrational.
Being chaotic and unpredictable, sometimes the market neglects every technical and fundamental rule.
Crisis, euphoria: the reasons can be different.
The fact is that such things happen.
And it is your duty to learn to deal with unfavorable market conditions.
💰To become a consistently profitable trader, you must become the master of these three elements.
Only then the doors to freedom and independence will be opened to you.
❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️
Trading PsychologyIn order to make it on green in the trading area, you need a lot of skills or a mind "all over the place". You will need to analyze a lot of data like profit, earnings, market share, and competition in order to see how the stock will go.
Numbers are an important part of the game.
However, an even bigger part of the game is the "emotional" part, or how you handle difficult and good times.
We can call this part: what is your "mindset" when it comes to trading?
Emotions can be negative - FUD or positive - greed
What is FUD?
FUD is short for fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
Who likes bad news?
I guess nobody, but still, we have bad news everywhere.
It's normal to be scared when you see a bad report/a "bad news".
However, what is "normal" on paper might feel very strong for some and that can lead to irrational moves like liquidating all just to feel safe having cash.
This overreaction can be:
1. Good - in the sense you avoided more losses.
2. Bad - true you might avoid some losses, but markets tend to recover. That means you sit on cash so you lose the gains made by the same recovering stocks that you liquidated in red.
I'm talking at points 1 and 2 about "uncertainty".
Nobody knows how the stock market will go.
Sure we have a lot of tools but in the end, all they do is to give us estimates: might go up or might go up.
So what do you do?
It's obvious why people "doubt" what they should do.
The information is not clear and furthermore the information changes rapidly.
It's not:
- OK the market is going up, so I will buy the market and make money.
No. Nope.
It's more like: now it's going down, now up, but overall down, but now up, what a spike up, but happened too fast in order to take advantage of it ... what shall I do (considering that I already lost some money - that only adds more pressure to the situation)?
To put it short:
If training would be easy, everyone would be rich!
So what can you do to prevent this?
First, you should know that all these emotions are normal reactions of the mind.
Furthermore: you probably already lived these emotions in your life so this is not something special (only) for the trading area.
For example, fear is a natural reaction to a perceived threat. A trader might feel fear not only because he might lose the profit made, but also cause he can lose his invested capital!
If you have a lot of info the uncertainty will vanish. Ok, not vanish, but knowing what you are dealing with will lead to a better judgment of the situation so therefore better decisions. All you have to do is DYOR (do your own research) meaning: have information.
Why should you doubt when you have a plan?
In some tight situations, you can doubt your plan, but the plan is what might save you from doing dumb stupid moves.
For example, a good plan in the stock market will include lines like: it is important to know that the markets are going to go up and down.
No, of course you won't like it when the market will go down, but at least you will know that this is normal and you will probably also know what to do in such situations.
By planning ahead (what can/will happen?) a trader can be prepared for different events that might occur in the market. These plans will make the trader "skip" the emotional part and focus more on what he should do in the situation he is facing.
Note: I must tell you this is easy only on paper and much harder when being in that situation. However, with patience, perseverance, and taking into consideration your past moves, trading events will become much easier.
What is greed?
Greed is an uncontrolled longing for an increase in the acquisition or use of material gain or social value.
To put it simply: people don't know when to stop.
Who remembers the hot stocks from '80?
A reason for not knowing those stocks: most of them and I mean more than 95% are not on the market anymore!
Sooner or later any company will have its downfall.
Now it doesn't have to be bankruptcy or lose all your money type of situation, but it can cause you to lose from 50 up to 90% of the money invested with that firm.
The problem is that greed comes in a masked form and that is why only a few see it.
Greed is based on the feeling to do better or to have more.
So are you trading based on greed OR you are just doing your plans to do better?
It's every trader's job to answer this question as there is no general predefined answer.
Discipline beats luck!
Repetition can become boring so adding $$$ each day to make "that million $" is out of the question for most people.
Because let's face it:
Everyone wants to be rich fast.
BUT:
Investing is not a get-rich-quick scheme!
Can you see the conflict between the ideas?
That is why you need a plan that should contain a line called:
Resolving my emotional conflicts.
To improve your trading psychology you should answer questions like this:
What risk am I willing to take?
What should I invest in?
Should I be a day trader? Or a long-term investor? Or between them? Or all at once?
When do I enter a trade? When do I exit? After EPS, the launch of a product, after naming a new CEO?
Should I place an order, stop loss, or take profit?
Do I use leverage?
Answering these questions might be time-consuming (can take even weeks), but it's very important to know them.
To put it short: it's important to know what you are doing and why.
Knowledge can overcome emotions especially fear.
For example, you will probably sell your stock if you would know that a company will fall the next day.
But how would you know that if don't research?
Reading the news, looking at charts, analyzing competitions, talking to other traders, learning and testing new strategies are actions that need to be done every day. At least 5 days out of 7.
Results
The purpose of handling your emotions or taking advantage of what they are communicating is to have results.
No one will pay for how much effort you do!
People pay for results.
But emotions change depending on your strategy or what you want.
It's not the same emotion when you invest $100 or $10.000.
Although they might seem similar (the emotion caused by investing money) they are not. There are 2 different emotions for each case that require 2 different strategies.
You got to be flexible and know that handling your mindset is a daily set of tasks.
The more you go in-depth about what you are going to do, the more you increase your chances to become successful each day.
Lose aversion
An example of how emotions lead a crucial role in the trading strategy is related to lose aversion.
This happens because most of the trades haven't lost money anywhere!
Sure if you lose a $10 bill on the street you lost your money!
But:
1. How often do you lose money on the street? 1 time in 5 or even 10 years?
2. It's only $10. You will survive without them.
The rest is only depreciation (not losing money).
After 5 years a car will lose its value. But in these 5 years you used the car, you went to work or on holiday. So for the money "lost" in the depreciation process, you got something in return.
When you invest in a company, what do you get when you lose 20% of the invested value after only 20 minutes?
And what people don't realize:
ANY trade will start on red, due to the commission/spread paid to the broker.
So before you make money, first you lose money!
That is mindboggling and in most cases, due to "loss aversion" or the lack of experience in losing money, most beginners (but even experienced traders) will start doing unexplainable moves (most of them dictated by the emotions they feel).
Conclusions:
Mastering your emotions is a skill that will lead you to success in trading.
However, it takes a lot of dedication, patience, and work to get to a level where you can handle your emotions and still make the right moves.
But it is worth it!
Your bank statement will be proof that your work was worth it!
15 Min Chart (ATR + BB indicator) Part 4 of 4Please practice using the Forex position size and risk calculator on all trades you make.
Noted on EURUSD 15 minute chart are:
Four possible entries into a sell trade on Friday
- Low volatility EurUsd has last 5 weeks or 56 ATR [er day. (Hard to scalp or day trades with low volatility pairs)
- I used minimum of 10 stops on low volatility pairs, but consult with ATR and either use 10 pip stop loss and/or X 1.5 to get stop loss to use
This is a scalping or day trading trading strategy, quick trades. Please practice using position size and risk calculator to get: 2% risk, trading lot size, stop loss and target(s) on 15 minute time frames, I look for 1:2 risk reward over higher, how much profit you made and how much one pip move is worth? You need to know this so you can manage risk and set appropriate stops and targets for low volatility and high volatility pairs in Forex.
IF you have a need to be part of the masses and trade EURUSD, then put your efforts into when both London session opens to London session ends.
Why, this covers Tokyo/London overlap and highest most liquid and volume 4 hour time which is London/New York sessions overlapping period.
1 Hour Chart (ATR + BB indicator) Part 3 of 4On 1 hour and 15 minute time frames, I would be looking for minimum of 1:2 RR setups.
Both noted examples on EURUSD chart of 1 hour charts you both:
1) Setup at end of Tokyo session (use last 1 hour red candle open) for entry into buy trade of next candle, using ATR x 1.5 for stops and targets, risk 18 pips vs 36 pip reward setup.
2) Setup at end of Tokyo session (use last 1 hour red candle open) for entry into buy trade of next candle, using ATR x 1.5 for stops and targets, risk 12 pips vs 24 pip reward setup.
These trades are either scalp and/or day trades, using both BB indicator and ATR indicator for timing purposes and stops and targets. If price is above BB 20 ema (yellow line), then look for buying trades and if price action is below BB 20 ema (yellow line), then look for selling trades.
NOTE:
From Chart set up of both trades: Please find a position size and risk calculator: Your account size, 2% risk- using noted stop losses and targets-
How much profit did you make? What is your trading lot size? How much USD money is one pip move worth? Do this on all trades you do for risk management.
PRACTICE on Sell trade noted on right side of chart, using 10 ATR, find stop loss, targets, RR setup, trading lot size, 2% of your account, etc...
4 Hour Chart (ATR + BB indicator) Part 2 of 4On daily and 4 hour charts, I would only be looking for 1:1 Risk Reward setups using ATR and Bollinger Bands. This is if you are day trading or swinging within the same week time period.
1st example trade (on chart): Uptrend/Bullish trend this past week
1) Look for price action to swing low (make a 4 hour red candle) that hits BB center 20 ema line (yellow), set up a 33 pip stop loss at open of that red candle related to a 22 ATR x 1.5 pips = 33 pip stop loss, entry would be at open of that same red candle and exit/target would be 33 pips above enter. 1:1 RR set ups are great, especially because they win get you high win rate %. This trade would have been done in same day for a 33 pip profit.
2nd example trade (on chart): Uptrend/Bullish trend this past week
2) Look for price action to swing low (make a 4 hour red candle) that hits BB center 20 ema line (yellow), set up a 36 pip stop loss at open of that red candle related to a 24 ATR x 1.5 pips = 36 pip stop loss, entry would be at open of that same red candle and exit/targets would be either at 1st target of 36 pips next day or during two days 2nd target at 72 pips (noted on chart). 1:1 RR to 1: RR set ups are great for 4 hour and daily time frames, because they will get you a high win rate %.
4 Hour Time frames are mostly for swinging at least for one to three days, if you close out all of your trades within the same trading week.
Your should practice calculating lot sizes and risk on these two noted trades, using your account balance, 2% risk and atr/pips noted on trades.
How To Use Position Size & Risk Calculator (On All Trades)Use Position Size and Risk Calculator to easily calculate recommended lot size, using live market quotes, account equity, risk percentage and stop loss.
What are Lots:
Standard 1.0 Lots: 100,000 Units Mini 0.10 Lots: 10,000 Units Micro 0.01 Lots: 1,000 Units Nano 0.001 Lots: 100 Units
In Forex a Lot defines the trade size, or number of currency units to be bought or sold in a trade. One Standard Lot is 100,000 units of base currency. Most brokers allow trading with fractional lot sizes down to .01 or even less. Fractional lot sizes are sometimes referred to as mini lots, micro lots and nano lots.
How To Use Position Size & Risk Calculator: (Select and/or impute your particular details of any pending trade)* THEY ARE FREE ON LINE!!!
Currency pair: Traders can select from Major Forex crosses, Minor pairs.
Stop loss (pips): Traders should input the maximum number of pips they are willing to risk, or lose, in a trade, to protect the account equity in case the market goes against their position.
Account balance: Pretty straight forward, traders just need to input their account equity.
Risk: The crucial field of this Position Size and Risk Calculator! In this field traders can select from a risk percentage or any amount of their account base currency ($2, $20, $40, etc). As a guideline, professional traders do not risk more than 2% of their account equity per trade. This technique will allow for traders to last longer with their trading careers, and eventually, also to recoup from previously losing trades.
Now Hit the "CALCULATE" button
The results: The Position Size and Risk Calculator uses a market price live feed with the current inter bank rate (in a 5-digit format) and it will display the selected currency pair price
Calculator displays the amount of units that that a lot represent; how many trade units and finally the portion of the account equity at risk, or the value of the position, in this case $100 USD.
Is Trading Forex Gambling? DependsIs Forex Trading Gambling? Depends
Notice a common theme? “Risk” and “losing”. If there are two things a Forex trader knows, it’s that there’s always risk and you will lose money at some point. It’s simply the cost of doing business as a Forex trader.
What is the truth? The truth is that even the large banks and hedge funds gamble every time they sit down at their trading computer. But (and it’s a BIG but) there’s an inherent difference between how they gamble and how 99.9% of retail Forex traders gamble. It’s a little thing called “probabilities”.
Learn to Think in Probabilities
It all comes down to putting on trades where the probable win is higher than the probable loss. In other words, stacking the odds in your favor. Use price action and confluence. The more “Confluence Factors” you have in your favor on any one trade, the higher the probability is that the trade will make you money. Different types of probabilities: Price action pin bar on the daily chart. Price is rejecting a key level.The trend is up.The moving averages are providing dynamic support. No immediate resistance to the upside (there are several more probables, you might use for your edge, plan or in your strategy).
Let’s go back to the casino example for a second. We can learn something from casinos. The goal for any Forex trader should be to trade their account like a casino owner runs his/her business. Casino owners know they’re going to lose money on some customers, it’s the cost of doing business. But they also know that by the end of the year, they’ll turn a profit because the odds are stacked in their favor.
So start trading account like casino owner runs his/her business by using price action and confluence, and begin stacking the odds in your favor.
Trade like a casino! 🎰🎲💵Yep you heard me right you need trade like a casino 🎰
Key bit here is trade like the casino operates their business model.
Don't trade like the clients that frequent the casinos.
Why should you trade like a casino?
Profitable traders understand how casinos are successful.
Casinos are profitable and make money because they have an edge which they let play out.
They know probability is in their favour.
How many times have we all been at a roulette table thinking we have a 50% chance of winning betting on red or black.
We all seem to forget about that green zero on the table and here in lies the casinos edge.
With having an edge they let play out it's impossible for them not to make money.
The casino is comfortable with every outcome on the bets placed knowing the edge will play out.
Losses are seen as a cost of business, risk is controlled and emotions to are in check.
This is why the house always wins! 🎰🤑
If you as a trader apply the same logic's to your trading strategies the end results will be the same as the casino.
If you choose to trade like one of the clients in the casino with no fixed rules you essentially are gambling with you trading.
Subjectivity and emotions will come in to play.
Random winning and losing runs will occur which will impact trading psychology.
This way of trading will only end in one way and that's by giving everything to the house or in this case your broker!
Development of a strategies with proven mathematical edges ensures you will become the house 🏦💰
Once an edge is established trust your strategy and let that edge play out.
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Thank you.
Darren
Closer look into Rising/Falling Wedge, Reversal Price Action
Closer look into Rising/Falling Wedge, Reversal Price Action structures/patterns
Hi traders:
Today I will go more in detail on rising/falling wedge correction in price action structures/patterns.
You might have already heard about these types of correctional structures, and many traders who utilize them.
Certainly there are many ways of traders identifying them and taking advantage of these kinds of price action, so it's ideal for you to understand them in your analysis.
We first need to understand that a rising/falling wedge is a REVERSAL price action. Meaning when the correction completes, there's a higher probability of the price to reverse.
You might have already seen multiple price action videos from me that go over all sorts of continuation and reversal price action (I will share links below),
and I always talk about when combining multiples of different price action structures/patterns will give you a better edge at entering positions that work out in your favor.
Same idea here, so let's take a look at how rising/falling wedges are, how to identify them, and how to effectively use them in your analysis.
Rising/falling wedge, just as the name suggests, is an ascending/descending type of correction where the price is getting squeezed into a “wedge”.
As the price gets narrower and narrower, there's a higher probability of the price to “reverse” from the wedge.
Now about entries, certainly many traders have their own method of entering, so I will share my point of view and the way how I like to enter them.
Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know :)
Thank you
Risk Management: 3 different entries on how to enter the impulsive phrase of price action
Multi-time frame analysis
Identify a correction for the next impulse move in price action analysis
Continuation and Reversal Correction
Continuation Bull/Bear Flag
Parallel Channel (Horizontal, Ascending, Descending)
Reversal Ascending/Descending Channel
Reversal Double Top/Bottom
Reversal Head & Shoulder Pattern
Reversal “M” and “W” style pattern
Reversal Impulse Price Action
Continuation/Reversal Expanding Structure/Pattern
3 Steps Of A Trade (Step #3 Exit Order)Forex Exit Strategies: Tricks on Setting Limit Orders:
Forex exit strategies and exiting a trading position at the right time and price is arguably more important than your entry order. Because only when you exit, you lock in and confirm your profit. Choose the best currency pairs and the best times to trade.Today, let’s talk about getting out, WITH profit. By paying attention to a small trick when setting limit exit orders in your long-term trades.
There are many ways to calculate your Forex exit strategies. They highly depend on your trading time frame, your account’s margin and on the market sentiment in general.Identifying Limit orders or Profit Taking Levels is one of them. These are the areas you calculate to get out of your position and manage your Forex exit strategies when the market prices reach your target.
Limit Orders
Traders usually use market orders to exit trades with a big profit. If you use a limit order while you are going long, then your limit order will be higher than the market price.On the other hand, if you go short with a limit order, then your limit order will be below the market price. Imagine a limit order like a finish line. Your trades will be directly closed every time the market price crosses your limit orders.
Put bull exit orders below obvious psychological round numbers (ex: 1.50000, etc...) and above bearish psychological numbers, support and resistance areas. Most of time big banks on purpose do not go to these areas knowingly that a lot of traders are TRAPPED in these areas.
Trade 3 Steps (Step #2 Enter Order)Entry orders are a valuable tool in Forex trading. Traders can have a great trading plan, but if they can’t execute that plan effectively, all their hard work might as well be thrown out the window. This is where setting up Forex entry orders comes into play. Entry orders allow traders to set price that they would like to buy or sell a currency ahead of time. Only be executed if that specific price is hit. There are several benefits to trading Forex using entry orders.
WHAT IS AN ENTRY ORDER IN FOREX TRADING?
A Forex entry order is an order that is placed at a specified price level for a currency pair. Once this price is reached, the order is then executed/filled. If the price never reaches the desired price level, the order will not execute. The type of order can vary as well, which should be taken into consideration prior to placing the Forex order.
TOP 5 BENEFITS OF USING FOREX ENTRY ORDERS
1. Price Control- The first benefit of entry orders is the control they provide over price level. Traders can indicate their desired price level entry point at which the trade will execute. Having this ability to designate a level allows for ease of trading without having to constantly monitor the market.
2. Entry Orders Save Time-Forex entry orders are very useful for saving time. By setting one, traders do not need to be at a computer when a trend line is hit or when price breaks out of its price channel. Traders can very easily add an entry order to get in the trade if price behaves in the way he/she thinks it will. The order does the waiting and allows traders to focus on other things.
3. Better Money Management- Forex entry orders help to save money. To understand this better, consider how much time traders dedicate to trading each day.
4. Accountability-Forex entry orders (with stops and limits attached) also help keep traders accountable. This is because they eliminate the possibility of emotions getting in the way of reliable, profitable trades, and make sure traders are following the rules to the latter.
5. Support Trading on a Time Frame-Trading on a custom time frame can allow for more specified trades that could be in line with upcoming market news, political events or company results depending on what market is being traded. Traders can stipulate the expiry period for the entry order:
Trade 3 Steps (Step #1 Stop-Loss Order)“Always use stop-loss orders.” -W.D. Gann, legendary investor/trader
What is Stop Loss in Forex?
Stop loss in Forex is a great way to minimize the amount of money you lose through trading. It is an exit plan in the event of a losing trade. Essentially, stop loss is a limit you set to minimize your risk that automatically exits you out of a trade if your currency pair dips below a level that is losing you money. Stop loss is a valuable mechanism that Forex traders must use if they want to make a living from Forex Trading. It is especially essential for beginner and inexperienced Forex traders who aren’t able to always make the best trade choices. Stop loss, while important for beginners, is also used by experienced traders. There’s no downside to protecting your trades- unexpected fluctuations of currency prices happens all the time, and it’s wise to safeguard your investing when you can. Stop loss also allows you to make trades and walk away from the computer for a while, instead of having to watch the currencies change. It also worth mentioning that stop loss can work against you. * I let the trade breath with stop loss but still look for 1:5 or higher risk reward setups.
Let’s say your stop-loss is hit and you are automatically backed out of a trade, and after you’re exited from the trade the currency pair swings back other way exponentially? Not only did you just lose money on the trade, you missed out on a potentially big profit. This is why some Forex traders might have a disdain for stop loss since they view it as missing out on opportunities for major swings in a currency pair. While it depends on who you talk to, the majority of Forex traders will advise you to use stop loss, especially for beginners. It’s necessary to know about stop loss orders and how to calculate the proper limit to set it at.
Figure out your stop-loss strategy and keep to it- it will save you in the long run. Nailing down a proper stop loss strategy before you start trading is one of the best ways you can ensure yourself from the always-changing Forex market.Choosing best stop loss strategy depends on your experience, skill level, bankroll, etc. There are so many different factors that will impact what the best stop loss strategy will be for you. As with everything in Forex, it’s best to educate yourself on Forex trading strategies to eventually get to the point where you’re making a consistent income through online trading.