The Most Underrated Technical Analysis Tool - Element of Time !Market timing is an essential tool whether you're a day-trader, portfolio manager and/or long-term investor. I present to you the most underrated technical analysis tool in the space of retail trading. The purpose of this short educational webinar is to open your eyes to something you don't hear about abundantly because it is the most disregarded aspect of trading in my opinion.
As an intraday trader, my main focus is on the speculation of "the next daily candle". However, I first analyze and project on "the next weekly candle". Each weekly candle is broken into 5 individual daily candles, and each daily candle is broken down into 3 main market sessions - namely, Asia, London & New York Session.
You'll find that my main focus in this lesson is on the day in which you find a lower / upper wick being created on the weekly candle. More often than not, "Tuesday" typically forms the low of a bullish weekly candle, and the high of a bearish weekly candle.
I encourage you to mark out the Open of your week, and highlight the swing point on the Tuesday of each week. I promise, you'll start implementing the "Element of Time" in your trading toolbox.
Of course this is not a standalone tool, however is helps greatly with the determination of your weekly directional bias. It will also assist with your trade and risk management.
It is to up to you to put the work in and infer whatever information you can from this little teaser of an illustration.
Let this open up the opportunity for you to exponentially elevate your trading skillset.
Trading Plan
The Iceberg Illusion of Success in Trading 🏔️
When people see a consistently profitable trader they do not consider all the costs a successful trader has paid overtime (below the surface) to get to what they see (above the surface).
So many things happen below the surface that nobody can see.
Here are some of the below the surface things that compose the top of the iceberg that everyone sees:
🔰Dedication – you need to be loyal to your dream of becoming a pro trader. Your belief must be that strong so no one could dissuade you. You need an iron discipline to make it happen.
🔰Hard work – you should work day after day not letting yourself give up. Charts must be in front of you as much as it is possible. Trading terminal must become your best friend.
🔰Good habits – follow your trading plan, do not break your rules of risk management, avoid FOMO, etc. This is the set of habits that will be your satellite in your trading journey. Do them consistently and they will become a natural part of your life.
🔰Disappointment – it does not matter how hard you try. Occasionally things will fall apart anyway: you will face losing streaks and a strategy will refuse to work. It will hurt. "Stand up straight with your shoulders back". Treat disappointments as temporary things.
🔰Sacrifice – to become a consistently profitable trader you should pay the price. Losses, time, nerves. Your prosperous future will have a tremendous cost.
🔰Failure – while you are learning how to trade you will inevitably blow a couple of trading accounts, you will spend time on strategies and techniques that do not work. Occasionally you will fall. If so, stand up and keep going.
🔰Persistence – keep doing what you are doing no matter what. Do not let others persuade you that you can't make it. Even if things get tough, stay strong.
🔰Focus – always know what is your end goal, know where are you going, and what is your end destination.
🔰Flexibility – be prepared for sudden changes in the environment. Keep your focus on the goals that you set learning to adjust to the changing circumstances.
🔰Consistency – you will not get the desired results immediately. Be ready to do the same again and again, hundred times until the goal is achieved.
Overnight success does not exist. If you want to become a consistently profitable trade be prepared for years of struggling and pain. And do not be afraid, it is worth it.
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PRICE ACTION TRADING | INVERTED HEAD & SHOULDERS PATTERN 🔰
Hey traders,
Inverted head and shoulders pattern is a classic reversal pattern.
It signifies the weakness of buyers in a bearish trend and a bullish accumulation.
⭐️The pattern has a very peculiar price action structure:
Trading in a bearish trend the price sets a lower low and retraces setting a lower high (left shoulder),
then the market goes lower setting a new low but instead of setting a new lower high, the price returns back to the level of a previous lower high setting an equal high (head).
After that bears start pushing again but with an amplifying bullish pressure, the market sets a higher low and returns back to equal highs setting a new one (right shoulder).
🔔Equal highs form a horizontal structure called a neckline.
Once the pattern is formed it is still not a trend reversal predictor though.
The trigger that is applied to confirm a trend reversal is a bullish breakout of a neckline of the pattern.
📈Then a long position can be opened.
For conservative trading, a retest entry is suggested.
Safest stop is lying at least below the right shoulder.
However, in case the heights of the right shoulder and head are almost equal it is highly recommendable to set a stop loss below the head level.
🎯For targets look for the closest strong structure resistances.
What pattern do you want to learn in the next post?
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How to continue in trading during uncertainty timeHello traders:
Recently I received many messages from traders about taking many losses during this uncertain time.
What's going on globally right now may have a different impact on all the different markets.
Many have told me of your frustration, stress, and negative emotion on losing money and continue to feel defeated.
Today I will explain a few things that you can implement into your current trading plan,
approach and perspective during this period of time.
First, you must acknowledge risk management.
Too many traders ignore this key important aspect of trading.
Especially during this time where the market can be volatile and irregular.
It's in your best interest to understand how to manage your risk. You should have a plan that lists out how your approach would be.
For example for my risk management right now:
-1% per trade of account capital.
-No more than 1 trade on the same currency, unless the first trade is secure in profit.
-No more than 2 trades open during a day, max drawdown 2% per day
-10-15 trades per month
-3 trades maximum per week
-Minimum 3:1 RR allow before entry
-Will Take profit on average when in profit 3:1 RR.
Second, learn to control your mindset and emotions.
More often when traders approach me these days, they are telling me they are taking too many trades, chasing profits and revenge trading their losses.
All these arise from the mistakes of FOMO, get rich quick mindset, enter multiple trades.
IF a trader can truly understand the fact that the market will always be there tomorrow, next week, next month..etc, then it's an easier thing to deal with on a psychological level.
You will no longer stress about trying to enter too many trades, worry that the market may not be available tomorrow.
Third, less social media exposure.
In today’s world, unfortunately in trading, most of the things you see on social media are fabricated and fake.
Their sole purpose is to sell you a dream, lifestyle, and easy money concept.
ITs always during this uncertain time, you will see more and more of these “gurus” who will show you how much $ they made during this time.
Now, I am not saying all are fake or scam, I am sure small # of them are doing well.
But, most of the things you will see in your social media feed, are likely to be photoshopped, faked, fabricated to make you believe whatever you are doing is wrong, and you tend to “compare” your result with these people.
This ended up becoming very negative and stressful to continue.
ITs important to understand trading is one of the toughest professions out there.
IT requires so much emotion control, clear mindset, and proper psychology on a regular basis.
If you are struggling, it's usually not to do with your trading strategy, but rather your approach, perspective, and perception.
So, eliminate as many unrealistic things you might see, and focus on yourself and your journey.
Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know.
Thank you
Why Do You Need a Trading Plan?📝
If you want to become a consistently profitable trader you have two choices:
1️⃣strictly follow your trading plan
or
2️⃣fail.
Trading plan is essential for achieving your financial goals.
It is a set of actions to follow for making trading decisions
guiding you on how to react to certain events.
It reflects your personality and characteristics.
Moreover, its entire structure and content are primarily based on them.
Your way to success will be full of obstacles.
A lot of things will come in your way:
losses, drawdowns, and losing streaks;
mistakes, scams, and emotional decisions.
Only your trading plan will show you a correct path, it ensures you will stay on track on your journey to your desired destination.
When you make a wrong turn, it knows to make adjustments, and it points you back in the right direction.
It is your guard from making any hurried decisions you could later regret.
Trading without a trading plan wouldn’t be a smart idea. You wouldn’t know how to get to your destination and it’s highly likely that you get lost.
Most importantly, if you suck at trading (and you certainly will in the beginning), you will know it is down to one of only two reasons: either there’s a problem in your trading plan or you are not sticking to your trading plan.
Stick to your plan traders. "If you fail to plan, you plan to fail".
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How to trade by using EMA Ribbon ?Hello traders 🐺 .
this is an educational idea and it's about the EMA Ribbon .
In this idea I want to talk about how to using EMA Ribbon in trading so make sure to read this idea until to the end if you are one of the Moving averages fans .
I like to start with an example of trading by using the EMA Ribbon , then I explain more about the EMA Ribbon and how it's work :
in the chart above we have 3 different examples of trading by using the EMA Ribbon ; as you can see in the chart above , we have 3 different pattern and the last one which is the symmetrical triangle is actually the current pattern of the BTC and I want to ask you about your prediction for it so leaves your comments below this idea and share your view about the BTC , after learning of how we can trade or in the other words how we can use the EMA Ribbon in our trading .
let's start with the ( first example ) :
my first example is rising wedge pattern , I try to cover all 3 types of the market conditions in this idea , because it's important to learn to trade in the any direction ; the first example is a bearish pattern :
As you can see in the chart above , BTC price after creating the rising wedge pattern started a very long down trend , by how we can trade it ?
if you look at the chart you will notify that the every line of the EMA Ribbon acts as a support or a resistance and the more deeps price can penetrate to the Ribbon , the chance of the reversal is higher .
For example , look at the rising wedge , during the pattern when the EMA Ribbon was in the bullish mode or in the other word , when short term EMA is above the long term EMA , when price finally success to penetrate to the last line of the EMAs which is the long term EMA ; price was faced to the more stronger support and this is shows us that if price can break below the all of the EMAs , there is strong chance for the changing the trend .
but finally when price break below the Ribbon , BTC was started a very long term bear trend , if you are a trader you must know that this bearish pattern after the very long bullish trend could indicate the bear market signs , and if you want to use EMA Ribbon for trading this is good chance , so let's see how we can use it ?
first of all when price break below the EMA Ribbon you must wait for the confirmation signs , this is means that you must wait for the EMA Ribbon to flip from bullish to the bearish mode which means that the short term EMAs goes below the long term EMAs , and after the retest of the Ribbon you can say that , thing are looking bearish from the EMA Ribbon sight ; and you can set your short trade based on your trading strategy .
but what's the problem of the EMA Ribbon ?
let's talk about the EMA Ribbons problem after checking all of the examples , until that please think about it and imagine how we can fix this problem if you find out the problem , if you can't , wait for the end of this idea and also don't forgot to support me with your likes and comments .
let's combine the example 2 and 3 together for better understanding :
as you might know , the moving averages are trend chaser indicator which means that they are work perfectly when market have a specific trend , for example in the chart above when BTC created a falling wedge pattern and break above the EMA Ribbon and retest it as a new support start a bullish trend , and as you can see when market started to retracement , BTC created a bull flag pattern and after the break out BTC continue the bullish trend .
in the bull flag , you can see that price break below the EMA Ribbon and also retest it as a resistance , but price can't continue the bearish trend ; so why this happen ?
did you remember that in the example one , I asked you about the EMA Ribbon , could you find the problem yet or not ? if you can't find it wait for the end 🙄🤷♀️ .
now we arrive to the last example which is the symmetrical triangle , but I gonna talk about it in the next idea because this is an educational idea and not for the analysis purpose , so make sure to follow me to find out what gonna happen for the BTC in the next coming weeks .
now it's time to show you the EMA Ribbons advantages and problem in one clear picture :
Did you remember that in the example 3 (bull flag) I said that the EMA Ribbon flipped to the bearish and also the price retest it as a resistance but price didn't break below again and after that BTC was breaked to the upside , this is what I mention the reason in the problem number 3 :
3_Moving average ribbons are best used in conjunction with other forms of analysis, such as price action, other technical indicators, and fundamental analysis for longer-term traders.
you must know that it's better to use EMA Ribbon in conjunction with other indicators for example , personally like to use it in conjunction by the RSI and TSI and also the price actions .
in the example number 3 , the overall trend is still bullish and price is above the support structure and also it's on the bullish pattern , so there is strong chance for goes above the Ribbon again .
now it's seems to we reach to the end of the idea and I must appreciate you my friends to read my idea , don't forgot to leaves your idea about this symmetrical triangle and help me with your likes and comments ; thank you for reading my idea .
Price Pressure Zones :Bearish & BullishTrade Plan:
Locate Buying and selling pressure zones implied by the lower and upper shadows/wicks of candlestick price bars.
These areas have THREE rejection shadows or wicks in a relatively close area or time period.
These pressure zones can be done on 15 minute time frames, but 1 hour, 4 hour or daily charts are stronger and more reliable.
Look at attached chart ( do you see numbers 1, 2 and 3? rejection lower shadows or wicks)- this suggest future bullish or buying trading.
* Buy next 1 hour candlestick bar (blue on chart) after the three rejection lower shadows or wicks, with right risk management under your strategy and plan.
Pro Tip:
A strong pressure zone is not defined just by one pin bar!!! These need a minimum of three rejection shadows and/or wicks, which make these zones ones which the big money or big banks have a wall up that they do not want price action to go thru at this time. Never fight big money/banks- trade with them.
Bullish Pressure Zones- Multiple price bars with lower wicks
Bearish Pressure Zones- Multiple price bars with higher wicks
Common Mistake: The buying or selling pressure found on a single price bar might not be sufficiently reliable for a trading setup. Instead of a single bar, look for at least three consecutive bars with overlapping upper or lower shadows. When multiple shadows overlap the create a price zone that is more likely to exhibit the buying or selling pressure you anticipate.
How To Trade Divergence
Divergence simply means separation.. When two similar things things---get separated and start going different directions, you have to consider which direction to follow. That's exactly the concept of divergence. When trading, and you spot a divergence, you want to be sure to understand what they are trying to tell you. In this video, I explain the concept of divergences, how to trade them and what to do when you sight one. Be sure to like, follow and comment.
I want to see those div trades!
Trading Mountain: How to reach the top step-by-stepHey, family! Good time of the day and welcome on another educational post.
As we all know, the road that leads to successful and consistently profitable trading is a pretty difficult and long one. It takes years of hard work, patience, dedication, and experience to reach the top of the trading mountain. Many beginners make similar mistakes before starting their journey. They tend to have false expectations and a distorted vision of the big picture.
As it can be inferred from the graphical illustration, the mountain pattern connects dots and shows a realistic path of a successful trader to the top of the hill.
We all start somewhere, right? We start taking our first steps and making ourselves familiar with the thing we are interested in. In the example of trading, it can be the first YouTube video that we watch, a chapter of a book related to investments that we read, first chart analysis that we make and many more.
What comes next? We decide on the type of a trader that we are. Do you have enough time to sit in front of the charts for several hours and press BUY/SELL buttons, or you are busy 90% of the time and prefer having a portfolio full of long-term positions?
After we have decided what our strategy will look like, we build a trading plan around it and make it a part of our lifestyle. We identify our trade entry criteria, risk management plan and so forth.
Backtesting our trading plan is a vital part for the journey. It can take days, weeks or even months. However, it will be worth it at the end of the day, as it is crucial to link our strategy with the trading plan and find out how profitable it will be.
Executing, optimising, journaling. Where did I make a mistake? What could have been done better? What should I change in my trading plan? It is important to stick to one single trading plan and optimise it along the way.
Before trading with real money, it is recommended to open positions on a demo account with virtual money. Getting a hand of things, practising the market and gaining experience is important.
After having traded on a demo account for several consecutive weeks, months or even years, we can move to a real trading account. Demo account is completely different from a real account, both psychologically and mentally. Putting real money on the line is much harder than playing around with fake simulation money. Thus, it is advised to start with a small amount and get used to it before moving to larger sums of money and increasing the trading capital.
After everything is went through and all hills are climbed, the top of the mountain will be reached. Of course, being a professional trader does not necessarily signify that there will be no failing trades and the win rate will always be above 90%. Losing days, weeks and even months will always happen. However, as long as you diversify your portfolio, stay cold-blooded, disciplined, and follow risk management principles, you will be profitable in the long-run.
The importance of confirmationsHey Traders,
How many times in your trading career have you had a set up that you are so confident in and is so clean that you just enter it without checking for confirmations? How many times have you seen price retract into a demand or supply area with so much force that you simply think it cannot go wrong? This trade setup right here is a prime example of why it is so important to check for confirmations and ensure that the lower time frames are indicating exactly what you want to see prior to entering a trade and not entering a trade out of fear of missing out and buying as soon as the price dips into a demand zone. Let me know in the comments if this relates to you or you've ever had an issue like this.
The analysis on the four hour had me very confident once we had broken over the recent highs. We indicated after a very long and steady downtrend that we could potentially start seeing a movement to the upside. Once we did get a clear structure break, it was followed by a strong push to the downside in which I like to call The Archers pullback. Price retraced straight back down into our demand area, which means we ticked step one and now we were looking for step 2 and Step 3.
As you can see, looking at the one hour chart, we had a steady downtrend formed prior to having a strong news release which pushed price down into the demand zone. Once we had this trendline formed, what I simply wanted to see was an area of consolidation, potentially a descending channel. Then a break of this trend line followed by a pull back followed by a break of structure down on the 15 minute. But what you can notice is as we have this trendline drawn an we dip into the demand zone, that price didn't break the trend line. It simply went sideways and did form a descending channel, but to the point where we broke the recent demand and set a lower low. In turn, it made this analysis invalid.
It is highly important that with all trade setups like this, especially trading the higher time frames, that we dive into the lower timeframes to ensure that the demand or the supply is entering the market the way we're anticipating so we can trade the distance with confidence. If we do not wait for confirmations then we are sitting blind and entering what you would call FOMO trades. Entering with much higher risk. As we can see here, price can just rip straight through these areas and we must be prepared to not take trades. If we were to enter blindly into these areas, this trade would of resulted in a loss on the account.
Do you find this analysis helpful? Should we chat more about this in the future?
Busy Signal - Gamblertrading is not gambling and gambling is not trading , but like expert gamblers the best traders must think of trading as a numbers game and probability to produce consistent results. Probability may suggest inconsistency but it can still produce consistent results over a large sample of trades if the edge is good enough and is applied consistently.
there is no such thing as ''prefect science'' in trading but there are occurrences in the market that are critical to understand and these can only be discovered by research and experience.
It just takes practice and a lot of screen time to master this art, so be patient, your mind and eye need training, and lots of screen time till it
becomes second nature to you.
“"Easy money" means only one thing when it means money that has come easy: It means money goes even more easily than it came.”
Edwin Lefevre
Being a weekend trading warriorYour results on Monday will be influenced by the work that you do on the weekend, specifically Sunday.
As an intraday trader I constantly think about my trading.
Here are a few points which every trader should focus on,
1 - Mapping our mental weaknesses
We all have mental challenges, some of us have a lot of FOMO,
while others oversize and over trade, you know what is holding
you back as a trader... FIND IT AND WORK ON IT!
2 - Reviewing trades (winners & losers)
Search for the plays where you can add size,
search for patterns that you can exploit next week,
review your best trades. What trades worked best for you?
more of these on Monday. What trades are not working for you? Eliminate them.
3 - Checking for key levels & patterns
The best in every industry practice and train... yet probably 90% of traders never
really do any kind of practice, they search for a strategy and then cannot wait to apply
it to the markets... real traders work on their trading hence they create REAL SKILLS!
The Journey of a Trader 🛣🚶
Hey traders,
Why 95% of traders fail?
In this post, we will discuss the trader's road to success and why most of the traders give up at the halfway point.
On the chart, I was trying to portray the journey of a trader:
most of the traders start this game with gambling.
They randomly buy and sell the market relying on their intuition and with a high degree of probability end up with nice cush.💰
However, as they proceed they realize that the profits that they made were the product of luck, not skill. 🍀
The more they trade, the less they win.
At some moment losing trades start to outperform winners.
Trying different things, jumping from one strategy to another, one comes to the conclusion that nothing seems to work.🙅♂️
He goes broke, he is panicking.
At that stage, the majority blame the market for their failure.
Forex, stocks, gold trading is complete scam.
Making profits on the market is not possible.
They give up and leave.👣
Only 5% are persistent. Only 5% are blaming themselves not the market for their failure.
They start following a strict trading plan, they follow risk management recommendations of pro traders and at some moment they start making 0.📝
Buying and selling the market, at the end of the day, they don't lose anymore.
That is the most important milestone in a trader's journey.
Realizing that the one stopped losing, a trader starts polishing and improving his rules in order to achieve better results.
He trains and works with his psyche.💪
After years of struggling, one finally contemplates a consistent account growth.
He became a pro trader.🏆
I wish you to be persistent, traders and don't give up.
Patience pay and at the end of the day winners win.
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How To Trade Hey guys, I created a system that would allow you to trade better. I call it the 3-way. This is when the market leaves signs and expects you to spot them. The first is: Pattern. For pattern, you can decide which is it for you.. P.S: You don't have to use my pattern. However, only use it of that's the common pattern in the instrument you're trading. Secondly, Divergence. Divergences are my go-to anytime, any day. Reason is because, divergences show up as a warning. Pay attention. Lastly, Structure. Even after finding a pattern and divergence, the structure has to be in-line with the confluences.
watch to digest!
leave a like, follow and comment if you found this useful.
Cheers,
Lazyluchi
Things you should consider in trading to make it as a career
Hello everyone:
6 points I like to share on what you should consider in trading to make it as a career.
1. Trading is not a get rich quick scheme
Contrary to what social media, scammers, fakers and fake trading gurus want you to believe, trading is NOT a get rich quick scheme.
Those who believe such usually end up over trading, over leverage, blow accounts and give up.
(Trading is actually a reasonable method to yield money return. It is how consistent traders make a return on their original investment/deposit with proper risk management, strategies and methods. )
2. Technical/Fundamental Analysis dont work all the time.
Trading ANY sort of strategy, method or style will always have a percentage of failure and losses.
Its probability, not right or wrong. The main goal in trading is to make sure you have proper risk management, good Risk:Reward ratio, and look for consistency, sustainability in the long run.
(Sometimes traders blame their strategies, method, style, mentor and other things due to their trades not working out.
Not trading strategies can yield 100% strike rate, if there is, there will not need any risk management, and anyone trader should get rich)
3.Limit your risk per trade
Proper risk management is super crucial to a trader’s success. Many traders often risk way more than their accounts can handle, after all what's 10%-20% of a $100 to many people ?
But would you risk 10-20% on a $100,000 account ? and lose $10,000-$20,000 in one trade ?
(Too many new traders deposit a small amount of money hoping it can double and double and double. But they often over risk, over leverage the account.
The result is it only take a few trades to totally blow the account up.)
4.Must use stop loss
It may have worked out for you a few times where you remove your SL, and the price reverses and you close with profits. But what if the price goes against you more and more?
Can you stay mentally sharp enough and continue to hold the trade when the losses pile up more and more ?
You more likely can not, which will end up resulting in a margin call and/or blow the account.
(In the past I had a trader who approached me and showed me his losses on OIL where he removed his SL and price continued to go against him.
IT has come to a point where he reaches margin call, and the broker actually open opposite positions to “hedge” his losses)
5. Don’t over analysis and combine multiple trading strategies, methods and style
Over analysis and complicating your charts may lead to confusion and is not necessarily efficient.
Most trading strategies do work on their own, but when combined with so many other strategies, it creates conflicts, contradiction and confusion for traders.
(Often traders combine too many random indicators, S/R, trendlines…etc all on one chart. It makes it hard to analyze, and have a bias of the direction of the market)
6.Always use a top-down analysis approach.
Multi-time frame analysis is key. Always start from the higher time frame to the lower time frame.
The higher the time frame the stronger and noticeable the price action it is. Understanding a higher time frame can give you a possible direction and bias.
While the lower time frame will be your confirmation and entry.
(Have seen many new traders jump onto the 1 min chart to trade. While there are successful scalpers with proper years of experiences,
good trading psychology and emotion, most newcomers will not be able to handle the stress and pressure from it. )
Don’t give up
Engulfing-Harami-Pin bar (only setups you need to trade)Only Three Candlestick setup you need to totally understand to trade Forex - Successfully!!!
1) Engulfing-
An engulfing pattern is a 2-bar reversal candlestick pattern. The first candle is contained with the 2nd candle. A bullish engulfing pattern has a red candle engulfed within a green candle. A bearish engulfing pattern has a green candle engulfed within a red candle
2) Harami-
The Harami candlestick is a Japanese candlestick pattern that comprises of two candles which indicates a potential reversal or continuation in the market. The word ‘Harami’ is derived from the Japanese word for ‘pregnant’ which is representative of the Harami candlestick pattern. The Harami candlestick pattern can signal both bullish and bearish indications as charts notes.
3) Pin Bar-
The pin bar is a candlestick pattern that has a long tail up or down and represents the price rejection at support or resistance level in Forex trading. The pin bar is the most powerful and effective candlestick pattern in technical analysis. It gives a reversal signal but there are many other ways too to use pin bar in technical analysis like it is also used to draw SR flip level.
If you thoroughly understand how to trade Engulfing, Harami and Pin Bar candlestick setups on 1 hour or higher is better- you will succeed in Forex. Always trade Price Action (just chart price) and maintain proper 1% to 2% risk management per trade (use total of trading account)- then you can set stops, lot sizes and targets of trade. Good Luck!!! Keep trading Forex trading as simple as possible- no need to complicate this endeavor. Look at quarter levels on charts or ex: 000, 250, 500 and 750, as noted on chart 000, 0000 and 500 were great levels of these candlestick patterns and reversals. Have Plan & Trade Plan.
The Level is Good Until it's Not (A Lesson in Supply and Demand)G'day, Traders! Despite wars and rumors of wars there are always opportunities to be had in the financial markets, particularly the Energies markets.
The purpose of today's trade example is to demonstrate that once a level of Supply and Demand are created in the financial markets, the rule of thumb is that a level is "good" until they are not... that is, until all the unfilled orders inside them are processed. No matter how old a level may be, they do not go "stale".
Let's look at a trade which closed in the opening minutes of the market at 6PM EST on Sunday March 27, 2022:
A long opportunity became available to us on the 4-hour chart on Crude Oil Futures in the wee morning hours of Wednesday, March 5 (2:36am to be exact!). That morning (after having the required coffee and bacon as part of one's trading routine) there was plenty of time to evaluate the trade setup using Supply and Demand analysis. When a trade like this appears and meets your rules-based qualification system, you can then give yourself permission to take the trade.
The destination (a.k.a, Target) needs to be an opposing level of qualified Supply. The interesting part, and hence the jist of this article, is that no matter how old a level is, "a level is good until it is not." The level of Supply identified was from July of 2008 – almost 14 years ago! It is treasure chest full of sell orders that was created in 2008 and hasn't been touched since!
As you can see from the chart, price entered that Target level and ricocheted right away like a cat on a hot stove! If you drill down to the 1-minute chart you can see that price stayed at that level for a full two minutes until all the Buy Orders were exhausted and the sellers were back in control, driving price back down.
When trading via Supply and Demand, don't worry about how old a level is... if it meets your criteria of being a quality level, take it!
As always, Trade Well!
Are Losing Trades Still Winners?Alright, before I show you the “light at the end of the tunnel,” we need to create a fictitious system so I can logically demonstrate my point. I want you to bear with me here— it may seem a little ridiculous, but trust me, there’s a solid point I’m going to make. Let’s face the facts here: It’s easy to blame the market and commiserate with other traders, but it’s a lot harder to think for yourself and look for the silver lining after a bad trade.
I know, “Are Losing Trades Still Winners?” sounds like a crazy question, right? Read on and you may just find that it’s not really an irrational thought once it’s put into perspective.
Let’s list some trading rules to start:
1. You can only trade between the hours of 07:00 a.m. and 10:00 a.m. (UTC) London
2. You can only trade with the current trend of the market (up or down)
3. You must base your entries and exits using only support and resistance
4. You must have had a good night’s rest (no trading on 4 hours of sleep)
5. You must be drinking a Coffee while trading (just to be ridiculous)
Some trading rules to set for yourself, Right? I know, it’s a little silly, but what can I say? I like Coffee.
For this example, we’ll use an unrealistic stop for the EURUSD of 10 pips
Looks like we have a winner! You followed the rules by only trading during the established hours, you entered as the price breaks the support, you took the trade (SHORT) in the direction of the current trend, and your still in the trade right now as you hold trades over the weekend or youv exited at a round no level of 1.09 for a neat 1:11 RR come 14:30 p.m. , as planned (all while sipping your Coffee)!
We’re good, right?
Wrong: you broke a rule! By “widening” your stop, as you can see from the chart above the price surpassed your 10 pip stop loss set at 1.10200 reaching 1.10242 give or take a few pips (spread) before resuming the freefall, but hey your still in the trade or youv closed the full position for a healthy 110 pip gain, you violated one of your day trading rules; does this send you to the traders naughty corner?
Well, this is a losing trade (there will be losses, sorry), but you stuck to your guns and you've even created an opportunity to learn from your loss.
I’ll be honest here, a 10 pip stop on the EURUSD with as much volatility as there is these days isn’t only too tight, it’s not realistic.
Do some back-testing and you may find that the initial break of your rules (adjusting to 15 or 30 pips) may be what you need to set your stops at to weather the volatility and stay in the trade. If this is true, then make it a rule and stick with it.
For starters, I want you to know how important trading rules are and how important it is to stick to them. I mean, what if you widened the stop to, say, 50 or 100 pips and got stopped out?! You’d be mad at yourself! There is ofcourse different ways of deciding how many pips risk you are are happy to risk per individual trade as stop loss doesn't have to be fixed number you can adjust accordingly depending on the trade type/where price is when you reach your charts but this is an interlinked-subject that is beyond the scope of this idea
Another reason is that you can take a bad trade where you did stick to your rules and learn something from it. Who knows? Maybe you can even improve your day trading strategy.
Last but not least, your rules can help keep you on track. What if you did do the back-testing and you discovered that, more often than not, “that” particular rule held true?
If that’s the case, why change it?
After all, in trading, you’ll have some losses— it’s just part of the business. And remember: Don’t beat yourself up if you have a bad trade. If you stick to your rules, you’ve made the best decision you can. Give yourself an A!
Stay cool, drink Coffee, and trade well.
FX:EURUSD
👍
Is it okay to FOMO?You need to look at price action, and specifically, Heikin Ashi candles along with the Volume Indicator to tell you whether it's okay to FOMO. Use lower time frames to get in quicker.
Mostly, I never recommend it, but sometimes where there is strong buying and a clear trend change, a dip might not come for a while. And when it does, because it went up so fast, it can usually lead to a downtrend so you have to be careful. Especially in crypto where there is Bull Trap manipulations upwards.
However, the Volume Indicator can tell you if the bears have lost, which on the left hand side, they clearly lost as we went from Green to red to immediately Green again, showing the strength of the Bulls.
How to avoid getting Rekt with Heikin Ashi + Winning Trades1) Use Volume divergences to your advantage
2) Use Heikin Ashi weak green candles to find high points to short
3) Use dynamic trendlines by finding high + low points of volume to find "Volume breakouts"
Usually volume breakouts can happen before price, and you can predict price trends before they happen.
When to close Long BUY trades with small loss or small profit?
1) Weakness in Heikin Ashi candles upwards
2) Bear Divergences
3) Bear Volume increasing
4) RSI falling underneath the MA and retesting the MA
When to close SHORT SELL trades with small loss or small profit?
1) Bull Divergences
2) Bear Volume decreasing + Big Green Heikin Ashi candle with high volume
Also ^ switch back to normal candles and see if candle is Bull engulfing
3) RSI breaking out over the top of MA
When to Take Profit?
Use the reactive trendline:
When you are short and it turns Green after Shorting, take Profit on Short
When you are long and it turns Red after Buying, take Profit on Long
Journey of a Trader: All of us have gone through this!Good time of the day, dear TradingView family. Happy new month! May March bring you lots of happiness, love, and profits.
Today we are gonna be doing a quick reality check and scrutinizing a long way every trader goes through before becoming successful and consistent.
All beginning traders get super motivated and excited before beginning this long journey. Instagram “gurus” create false expectations and trick people into thinking they will be making quick profits and becoming millionaires with a $100 capital. Beginner’s luck is real and super relevant in this case. Without having a proper trading plan and a backtested strategy, newbies jump into the markets and start trading full-speed. “Wow, I made my first profits! I can keep going like this and make lots of “Benjamins”. Overtrading, greed and self-confidence lead to a losing streak, panic, anger, and loss of faith. Solutions need to be found, and therefore traders start changing strategies and trying to find a way to the doors of success. They lack motivation and hunger to keep going. They start questioning themselves and thinking whether they should quit or keep pushing. At this stage of the journey, around 90% of beginners give up and leave the markets. The remaining 10% still have hope, so they keep grinding and enhancing their trading capabilities. After some time, they start seeing some progress in their abilities. They start having more winning trades now, and they become breakeven traders, meaning they neither make any profits nor encounter any losses. They stick to their strategy and optimize it along the way. They plan, execute and journal all trades. After a few months, they finally reach the doors of success and profitability. Of course, they do not get greedy or self-confident. Though, they still have losing days/weeks/months, their main focus is concentrated on long-term growth and prosperity. They know that if they keep following their trading strategy, obeying risk management principles and being disciplined, they will always be profitable in the long run.
To sum up and to motivate the beginners reading this: if you are going through hard time in the markets, if you do not know what to do or how to make thing work, keep pushing more and more. There is always a golden sky at the end of every storm. Therefore, never feel discouraged, do not give up, and keep grinding. YOU WILL ALL MAKE IT!
The Only Proven Way To Success in Trading 🥇
Hey traders,
Like any discipline, consistently profitable trading requires many years of practice.
In this post, we will discuss the only proven way to become successful in trading.
🔰First, let's start with the axiom: there are no inborn traders, trading is a skill, a skill that can be learned. Though talent may help you in some manner it does not guarantee your success.
One more axiom that is logically derived from the first one is the fact that trading is a complex skill.
The one that can be split into dozens of subskills.
Making that statement we may assume that our success in trading directly depends on mastering each subskill, each domain that it consists of.
But how do we master these skills?🤔
The only way to do that is to practice. Practice means doing something regularly in order to be able to do it better.
With your first attempts, you are doomed to fail. Inevitable you will suffer and you will feel miserable because of your incompetence.
Trying and doing the same thing again and again, at some moment you will feel the progress and growth. Your perseverance will bear fruit.
Knock, and it shall be opened to you.
And as a consequence, with some attempt, you will feel that finally the skill is mastered, that one more stage in your journey is passed.
Polishing the entire set of subskills and learning to apply that as a single unit will make you a consistently profitable trader.
Just stipulate the domains properly, name them and be ready to work hard.
❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️