(Tutorial) World Markets & their affect on Indian Stock Market!Hello Traders/Investors,
Lets learn World Stock Markets and How it affect us in India on Daily/Weekly and even on long-term basis.
Note: this topic is specifically for Traders (specially Day traders) and also Investors might find it interesting read.
- US is called mother market and we're (i.e. Indian stock market) child market.
- US market gives a queue on how world and our market would perform based on it.
- Sectors like Banks (Dow Jones Bank index) n Tech/IT (NASDAQ) work pretty hand in hand with rest of world in terms of giving us a idea of direction towards which sector can have chances of moving by how much %age today.
- - SGX Nifty , its a Nifty's Future contract which is traded in Singapore Exchange and gives a good idea on start of our markets. SGX Nifty timings : 6.30 AM to 11.30 PM
- Asian markets specially South Korea, Hang Seng n Japan market we should watch carefully in morning to track the direction of markets. We belong to pretty much similar basket.
- European Markets, CAC, DAX and FTSE we should get a median of these 3 exchanges to know how much %age they're moving. Just an observation here, our Indian markets usually stay closer to DAX movement.
- Emerging markets (short form : EMs) : Emerging markets generally do not have as highly developed market and regulatory institutions as those found in developed nations. Market efficiency and strict standards in accounting and securities regulation are generally not on par with advanced economies (such as those of the United States, Europe, and Japan).
- Some of the most rapidly emerging countries include Brazil, Turkey, Russia, India, and China. Also some oil rich nations are also part of this list.
- To get a holistic picture of world markets.. get a queue from yesterday's closing of world markets specially US alongwith US futures which are very important.
- Then, in mornings look at Asian Markets n SGX Nifty to understand where our markets might open. Around afternoon when European markets open you get an idea where our Indian market might stabilise n close. Also, we can look at European futures to get idea on where Euro markets might open.
- Lastly macro economic data like Commodity prices specially Crude oil , USD INR n Dollar Index give a clarity on the markets. Higher Dollar n lower Rupee would cause panic in stock markets usually. Similarly, higher crude oil prices indirectly reduces countries foreign reserves n also affect business due to rising transport costs causing more expenses n less income.
- Cryptos movements can also affect markets now days, a big downmove on cryptos n hit many stop losses n cause for margin calls n hence companies might have to liquidate other assets of individuals like stocks etc. go get back their money.
- Honest mentions: Sometimes some macros are in news, then in those days stock markets start mimicking their charts.. it can b currency pair USDINR , US 10yrd BOND yield, Crude OIL sudden surge or drop in prices and most recently, NIFTY is pretty closely mimicking the US30 futures chart trend on day trades.
- My personal hack: I do all my Technical Analysis on these charts n not just on NIFTY and BANKNIFTY etc. I draw all the Supply n Demand zones, Channels, Trendlines etc. to get queues from them to implement it on my trading in Intraday in India. Usually it works like a charm!
World major stock markets timings in IST (i.e. Indian Standard Timings) :
North America Stock Exchange Timings:
Country Stock Exchange Opening Time (Indian Timing) Closing Time (Indian Timing)
US NASDAQ 7 : 00 PM 1 : 30 AM
US NYSE 7 : 00 PM 1 : 30 AM
Canada TMX Group 8:00 PM 2:30 AM
European Stock Exchange Timings:
Country Stock Exchange Opening Time (Indian Timing) Closing Time (Indian Timing)
UK London Stock Exchange 1 : 30 PM 10 : 00 PM
European Union Euronext 12:30 PM 9:00 PM
Germany Deutsche Borse 12:30 PM 2:30 AM
Switzerland SIX Swiss Exchange 1:30 PM 10:00 PM
Spain BME Spanish Exchange 1:30 PM 10:00 PM
Asia-Pacific Stock Exchange Timings
Country Stock Exchange Opening Time (Indian Timing) Closing Time (Indian Timing)
Australia Australian Security Exchange 5:30 AM 11:30 AM
Japan Japan Exchange Group 5:30 AM 11:30 AM
Hong Kong Hong Kong Stock Exchange 6:45 AM 1:30 PM
China Shanghai Stock Exchange 7:00 AM 12:30 PM
China Shenzhen Stock Exchange 7:00 AM 12:30 PM
Taiwan Taiwan Stock Exchange 6:30 AM 11:00 AM
South Korea KRX Korean Exchange 5:30 AM 11:30 AM
India NSE and BSE 9:15 AM 3:30 PM
You can google n find most of Live market details on many websites, I usually enjoy Investing .com for their simple UI and charts.
Please take all positions at your own risks and these are my personal views on analyzing markets. I'm not responsible for any losses incurred by you!
Regards,
Anshul
Trading Plan
Improve your trading skills with PTAHey Traders!
In this video we talk about Post Trade Analysis which we believe it probably the best way to develop your trading skills, trading system and general instinct of trading.
Today we traded the DAX for 2 hours with complete focus, focus is a vital requirement for trading success as it allows you to be present and disciplined to follow your trading rules and system.
The video explains some things we did good and some things we did bad, of-course the good should be repeated in the next trading session, the bad either improved or removed!
Do you do post trade analysis? - Let us know in the comment section below!
Have a fab day!
Learn What is U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) 💵💲
Hey traders,
I share my analysis, signals and forecasts on Dollar Index occasionally. Quite often I receive questions from you asking me to explain what exactly that index means and why it is so important.
Dollar Index (DXY) is a measure of the value of the United States Dollar against a weighted basket of major currencies.
This basket consists of 6 following currencies:
🇪🇺Euro (EUR) - 57.6% share
🇯🇵Japanese yen (JPY) - 13.6% share
🇬🇧Pound sterling (GBP) - 11.9% share
🇨🇦Canadian dollar (CAD) - 9.1% share
🇸🇪Swedish krona (SEK) - 4.2% share
🇨🇭Swiss franc (CHF) - 3.6% share
The selection of the following basket of currencies and their weight is determined by the significance of a trading partnership between the countries.
The index value is calculated with the formula:
USDX = 50.14348112 × EURUSD ^ -0.576 × USDJPY ^ 0.136 × GBPUSD ^ -0.119 × USDCAD ^ 0.091 × USDSEK ^ 0.042 × USDCHF ^ 0.036
The index was launched in 1973 and had an initial value of 100.
When the U.S.D is gaining strength against the above-mentioned currencies, the index is growing, while its weakness against them leads to a decline of the index value.
To conclude, the Dollar Index reflects a fair value of the Dollar and its dominance in global markets. Its analysis may help to make more accurate predictions of the future direction of the dollar related instruments.
Do you analyze DXY?
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Consistent Profitability, how long does it take?How long does it take to become consistently profitable as a trader? This is one of the most searched questions in the Internet when it comes to trading and the beauty is there's no right answer. When you do receive an answer, it's miss leading to beginners and everyone gets confused. There's a solid chance that you've looked at this before, or perhaps you just seen the title of this post and clicked on it. How long this is going to take you to master the arts of the market. There's a good chance you sat there and questioned, "what am I doing? how long are we going for? What should I be goal setting in terms of time with trading?" if you see yourself in this position or you've seen it previously, I finally have the answer you need to hear.
How long does it take you to become consistent and profitable trading?
As long as it takes.
There's so many different sources which claim so many different time limits that it takes to master Forex trading or crypto trading or industry, trade, whatever it might be your embarking on. All of them say the same around two to three years to become a consistent and experienced professional. Yet, where are they getting this data from? I know traders that master trading within six months. I also know other traders that traded for six years and couldn't get the look of it. There's no time frame to put on trading in terms of success and consistency. It isn't a university course, we don't sit down and do all the course procedures and even if we do, the bare minimum, still graduate in three years. That's not how trading works.
The question you should be asking isn't how long is this going to take me to master, but rather how many hours are you going to put into it. Day in, day out, how much work are you going to do? That is what will determine how long it takes you to become successful in this industry. There's so many people that will see 2 and a half years to become successful trader, then they trade half heartedly as if it is a hobby. They don't concentrate too much. They just trade here in there. Two and a half years pass and they'll call themselves seasoned professionals because they have been in the market for 2 1/2 years. Yet they couldn't show a single piece of consistency within their trading. Then there's other traders that put in hard work. I'm talking 8 hours a day of pure grueling backtesting, trade management, risk management, analyzing everything, and they put an exponential amount of work in and in six months they can outperform anyone else who's ever step foot in the market.
Time is not an important factor. The amount of work you are putting in is the important factor. Yes, time will tell whether or not you can be successful in this industry, but if you're measuring time based off of when you've been interested or when you've been trading a little bit and rather than the actual hard, grueling hours that you're putting into trading. Then you will never get to that level you want to get too. You have to put in the hard yards.
This industry is very advertised as easy, simple and the money making machine. There's a number of different factors in which we can blame for that, but we're not going to dive into that today. What I want to share with you is this is not easy. This is actually one of the hardest professions you could ever do, because work doesn't just stop, we don't just clock off and get paid the same amount every week. It's all dependent on the amount of time and effort you put into the market.
Do you want to be profitable and consistent in trading? Then put in the hard work. Stop Googling how long it's going to take. Stop having a look at other people's success stories. Knuckle down and put in the hard work. Then in two years, three years, six years, 10 years, whatever it's going to take. Look back and be proud. When someone asks you how long did it take you? Don't answer about six years or two years, be honest. How many hours did you have to invest? How hard was the work?
RISK MANAGEMENT [TAGALOG]As I always say, napaka importante ng risk management. I have explained it all in tagalog para mas maintindihan. I really hope marealize nyo ang importance neto sa magiging trading journey ninyo.
STOPLOSS IS A MUST, BUT STOPLOSS ALONE WITHOUT RISK MANAGEMENT is not a good habit and still you'll end up wondering with a negative PNL in the end.
FORMULAS are in there also.
Try doing the mathematics for your self.
I REALLY HOPE THIS HELPS!
Love,
Coach Dynati
4 Rules every successful trader should follow📈😎1. Trade according to the system.
2. Keep statistics.
3. Have strict risk management.
4. Adapt to the market.
Trade according to the system
When you trade without a system, it's gambling. Usually, when you ask a beginner why he has opened a position, he uncertainly begins to refer to the fact that someone gave him a signal, or that he thinks it's time for the coin to go in his direction.
Trading is a job in which discipline is rewarded. That is why every trader has his own trading system, which he follows in every trade.
It's like with the road rules, you can drive car without knowing them, but then you are almost guaranteed to get into an accident.
Keep statistics
Professional athletes constantly watch recordings of their performances and practice all the movements in front of a mirror, paying attention to every detail. It is vital to get better.
For a trader, statistics is a riddle that helps him learn from his mistakes. You should write comments on each trade, filter them by reason of entry or closure, track the average risk, average profit, percentage of successful trades and analyze each trade in detail on a tradingview chart.
Have strict risk management
Sometimes the market goes against you and you feel the full range of emotions – hope, anger, disappointment, despair. On such days, you will lose all your money if you do not have clear rules.
Set yourself a clear limit – no more than 3% of the deposit lost per day. For example, you have a deposit of $1000. You can't lose more than $30 a day.
In this way, you no longer risk falling victim to a spiral of negative emotions, you will begin to be more responsible in the trades you open, and you will be able to create financial stability.
Adapt to the market
Institutional players are always coming up with new ways to entice young players to invest in their coins, and technicians are developing increasingly sophisticated robots. That is why our responsibility as traders is to develop faster than them and to not stand still.
To do this, you need to monitor the market and watch which setups work best and which end up as traps.
An obvious example: during a bull market, breakouts work upwards, and downward breakouts are usually false. The same is true for the bear market – downward breakouts are cool, upward breakouts are deception.
In addition, you need to experiment with your trading algorithm and identify its weaknesses. Add new rules, test them, evaluate the difference.
Follow these rules and I guarantee that you will earn much more from trading, and the process itself will give you more pleasure than ever.
Good luck with your trades and see you in the DOM ✌️
Why doesn't technical analysis "always" work?A technical indicator could give a buy signal for a security with one set of values, and at the same time, could give a sell signal for the same security with a different set of values! How do you trust the indicators then?! Moreover, if a set of values works this time, the same set of values may not work the next time!
Technical analysis uses historical movements of a security to predict a probabilistic future direction or price of the security. By definition, technical analysis is probabilistic and thus its predictions are correct sometimes and go wrong other times. And we are aware of this uncertainty and are perfectly fine with it!. However, it is not possible for an indicator to describe the accuracy of its prediction. In the absence of that, basing our trade calls blindly on such predictions is as good as basing them on coin toss results. This article examines ways to assign an accuracy number to the predictions made.
Given this problem statement, the first thing that comes to our mind is backtesting. The results of backtesting give an indication of how an indicator has fared in the past. It is important to note that backtesting shows different results if applied to different timeframes (between two dates) or with different sets of values based on market behavior of that period. Our goal then is to know which set of values of all possibilities best suits a technical indicator for a given security for the current market conditions.
We all know that the price of a security doesn't move in a straight line! It keeps moving in a wavy pattern making highs (crests) and lows (troughs), both of short and long forms. Not only does the price change, but also the frequency and period (distance between crests and troughs, or swing highs and lows) of the security change on a day to day basis! This dynamic period plays a crucial role in selecting values for indicator parameters. For, e.g., it would be inappropriate to choose a longer length moving average when the security is volatile and making shorter swings. Also, the right set of parameters keep changing for an indicator with ever changing period of the security.
Without going into the complexities of establishing relationships between period and indicator parameters, we could backtest indicators for all possible values to arrive at the best set to use. For simplicity, let us consider a strategy that gives a buy signal if slope of the simple moving average is positive and sell signal if the slope turns negative. All that this takes is a single parameter - length of bars to the past (moving average length). Let us backtest with different lengths of and plot P&L for each with probabilities based on the number of trades won. The length with the best P&L could be considered as the ideal parameter. Note from the chart how this changes over time. Note also that this changes based on backtesting lengths, the chart uses 3-Jan-22 as the start date. (Another Note! Approximate P&L calculations with both long and short, for demonstration purposes only)
In summary, technical analysis methods work well with the right set of parameter values. And choosing the right set still has a lot of uncertainties to it, though the uncertainty could be reduced by backtesting and choosing a better set from time to time.
7 HABITS OF A SUCCESSFUL TRADERLet us all have a healthy habit as a trader. This is very crucial esp. when controlling our emotions in the markets. We need to develop habits to have a good trading mindset and practice what professional traders do. We need to examine ourseleves first, apart from any TEACHNICAL ANALYSIS. Emotions are involved and really hard to battle especially when our money is on the line.
But we got this..
Just create a habit!!!
HERE ARE THE 7 HABITS OF A SUCCESSFUL TRADER.
Different strategies of setting a Target ProfitSetting a Target Profit is an inalienable part of every individual's trading strategy, and each trader has his own plan and tactic of integrating a Target Profit into his or her trading style. While there are different ways and types of setting up a Target Profit, we are gonna go through four common and most well-known ones.
1. Key zones
Setting a TP at a crucial zone of support or resistance is a strategy used mainly by swing traders. If the market is ranging, buying a security at the lower barrier of the rectangular box and aiming for the upper barrier of it and vice versa is commonly implemented in the market by middle or long-term speculators.
2. Risk-to-reward
This technique is mostly utilised by day traders and it implies setting a fixed risk-to-reward ratio for every trade and use the "set and forget" logic. On the illustration on the top right graph, it can be inferred that even thought the price has more potential to drop to the downside, a fixed RR of 1:3 has been set.
3. Logic and intuition
The more you trade, the more experience you gain. After some time on the markets, you will easily spot some patterns and price movements in advance, without being in need to have more confluences than usual. On the 3rd chart, we can observe that the price is forming a "Triple Bottom" pattern on the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Our intuition tells us that after some consolidations, an impulsive move should take place, and there is a high possibility for the price to keep rising and reach the zone of the Higher High illustrated on the graph.
4. Open Target
Lastly, there is a group of traders that prefers having an open Target Profit and letting their trades run for weeks or even months. This tactic is commonly used by position traders, where they set a Stop Loss, but leave their Target Profit open, making it possible for them to hold a transaction open for long periods of time.
Post Trade Analysis (intro video)This is just a quick inditial video of a much more detail video which we will release tomorrow to show why and just how powerful Post Trade Analysis is.
I personally believe it is the express lane to trader development and I highly recommend you guys use it too for every single trade you take!
More on this tomorrow!
50 dollar challengeHere I provide a trading challenge. It's not a easy challenge, discipline is needed to meet the goals.
The goal is to start with only $50 and increase this to $10.000 (200x) in 2 months time.
Every trade always need a 1:4+ RR in order to not devalue your portfolio quick after making some losing trades. Total trades to be taken is around 80 - 100 with a trader who has an average 50% - 75% winrate.
Ofcourse leverage is needed in order to increase the account value in a shorter time. Stoploss stays the same as what I have recommend.
I will do this challenge on my own to improve myself and give myself more confident in trading.
Goodluck if you give this challenge a try!
50 dollar challenge
Post Trade Analysis: NASDAQ & WTIHey Traders!
In this video we go over a brief post trade analysis of the trades we've taken so far today on NASDAQ and WTI.
As a practice we highly recommend every one of you guys to actually perform a PTA on your own trades as it is literally the best way to improve as a trader as you will find your good and bad habits quickly. For example if you are not following your entry process you'll quickly understand that you should.
Anyway, we will make a longer post about this on Wednesday and explain it in detail, exactly what we do and why we do it!
All the best!
How to remain consistent while trading the financial marketsToday is a big day for us, as two years ago, on the 6th of June in 2020, we launched our company in attempts to be a valuable contributor to the trading industry and help all types of traders: beginners, advanced traders, those who are lost in the journey and so on. However, our personal trading experience goes way back, as we have been trading for more than five years. Throughout this long and interesting journey, we have had many ups and downs. After all, nothing in life is easy, and you have to overcome some obstacles in order to become consistent in what you are doing.
Reaching the doors of consistency is the main aim of every beginning and practising trader. Although many individuals may think of consistency as an upward-sloping straight line, years of practice and experience show us that it is rather an ascending channel. Being consistent does not necessarily signify that every trading day/week/month must be a winning one. You will always have losing streaks, unsuccessful trades and so forth. Instead, it indicates that by having a working trading strategy and obeying it, you are gonna be profitable in the long run.
Below, we have listed and scrutinized some of the rules that you can implement in your trading that can give you a hand in becoming and remaining consistent:
1. Have a clearly identified trading plan and stick to it
This may seem like a pretty basic rule, but believe me, most people never go past this pretty fundamental stage. It is really straightforward and crucial that you need to have a backtested trading strategy, and it could be anything you feel comfortable with. Whether you like to open positions once two Exponential Moving Averages cross each other, or once specific patterns are formed and the price is ready to move according to your bias and so forth.
2. Stop changing your trading strategy every time you encounter losses and feel frustrated
Trading is a game of numbers. Yes, you will experience many losing days. Yes, you will feel frustrated and angry to the stage that you might smash the screen of your computer. After all, emotions and psychology play a huge role in trading. Believe me, changing your strategy every week and trying to do something new will never be an option in this case. I see many people make this mistake and get perplexed on why they are not profitable yet. The right thing to do is to stick to one single trading plan and ride along till the end. At the end, if you are risk tolerant and patient, you will always be profitable in the long run.
3. Manage your risk
This can’t be said enough. I see people trade the markets like a casino in attempts to be profitable and successful in the long run. Just because you think the setup is perfect, or that you have seen your favourite author’s technical analysis nicely align with yours, you should not be risking big portions of your account on a single position. You should have a well-defined risk management plan. Whether it is risking 1% on all positions, or risking 5% per position on Friday afternoons in order to drink lots of champagne on the weekends. Bottom line: whatever you do, do it with a plan and keep things consistent. Personally, we have always been risking 1-2% per single position, as this is something we are comfortable with. If you feel like you are not mentally ready to trade a live account, you can start even smaller (0.5% per trade) and then gradually go bigger.
4. Do not overtrade and learn to stay off the markets when necessary
Many people think that opening more trades will generate them more profits. However, less is always more, and quality will always be over quantity. Depending on what type of a trader you are and what your trading strategy looks like, there should be an average number of trades that you enter every day/week. If you are a swing traders that tries capturing nice long-term waves, 3-5 trades per week would most likely be more than enough. If you are a scalper that loves sitting in front of the charts for hours, your strategy would probably consist of entering 15-20 short-term positions per day. Long story short, have a predetermined range and do not go off the barriers of it.
The above stated points are some of the tips and strategies that could help you in remaining consistent in the markets. They may seem pretty simple, but remember that beauty lies within simplicity. There is no need to make things more complicated when you can simply stick to basic principles and succeed in this industry.
Have a great trading week, family!
Investroy
How much leverage should I be using?Understanding how to trade forex requires detailed knowledge about economies, political situations, all the individual countries, global macroeconomics, the impact of volatility, it goes on and on. But the reality of the situation is this isn't what makes most new traders fail. What makes most traders fail isn't the lack of knowledge or understanding of what it is they're actually trading. It's the lack of knowledge and understanding on leverage.
As most of us would have heard, there is very obvious statistic out there that majority of retail traders fail. Now, most people will see this as a lack of competence and just purely not willing to put in the effort to be successful. But a lot of the time it is people not understanding the risk their undertaking and what it is they're actually doing with their money when they enter the market. It really highlights this when traders come to a firm like ours, and question leverage or they have so many questions about leverage that even though they've been trading for three to four years, they still don't fully understand the actual risks that are at hand when they are opening certain positions that they really can't afford to open.
Today I wanted to jump into leverage. Let's really dive into depth what it is, why we have it, how we can use it. Then, finally touch on what is the right amount of leverage for you as a trader. So you can be exponential in maximizing your profits, but also ensuring that you're not damaging yourself long term.
LEVERAGE RISK
Firstly, I think it's important for us to have a look into leverage. Leverage is the process in which an investor or trader borrows capital in order to invest or purchase something. Typically we borrow capital from a broker and we buy into positions with money that we didn't have in order to be able to gain more profit from those positions. Most traders are blindsided and constantly think the more money I have, the more profit I can make, which is true, but they fail to recognize that the more risk it carries.
Carrying higher leverage is an exponential increase in risk. Most brokers out there will probably offer you something like 50:1, 100:1 or even 500:1 leverage. This giving you a buying power of 50, 100 or even 500 times whatever the amount of money you have in your account. Which means a trader with just $100 in a brokerage account could open a position with $50,000 in the market. Now, while that may sound advertising, believe me, that's a trap and we're going to chat about that today.
HIGH LEVERAGE EXAMPLE
So let's dive into an example. Let's imagine we have a trader who has a $10,000 account. They decide to use 100:1 leverage, which now means with that $10,000 cash, they can trade up to $1,000,000 in the forex market. Let's assume that the trader opened a position with the full available capital which would relate to 10 lots, and they opened the position on a currency with the USD being the quote currency. That means that each PIP movement is equal to $100. So for a simple equation, if they were to enter a trade and that trade went against them by 50 pips, they would have lost 50% of their account because that 50 pips would have been equal to $5000. So in one wrong trade they lost 50% of their account.
So many people in this industry is so quick to look at what the realized gains could be, but they rather tend to ignore the actual risks that come with that. If you don't have sufficient evidence that your investment strategy is going to provide consistent and stable gains long term, do not look to trade with higher leverage, as you will be gambling and it is extremely risky.
LOW LEVERAGE EXAMPLE
Now let's use the same example, but in a lower leverage situation. The trader has $10,000 cash only this time he is trading on an account with 5:1 leverage, resulting in a buying power of $50,000. This means on a pair with the US dollar as the base currency that you can open a maximum size of 0.5 lots. Let's go ahead and take the exact same trade, only this time with a 0.5 lots, each pip is equal to $5. Should the investment or trade fall the same 50 pips this time the trader will only lose $250, which is a mere 2.5%. Same trade, different leverage, one lost 50% the other lost 2.5%.
It is a common trick out there that traders feel they require more leverage to really make money in the market. It's not true. Yes, it can help you get more profits from those smaller moves. Yes, it is really beneficial if you have a proven strategy. If you are still coming to grips with trading or you're fairly new and you haven't achieved consistency and profitability yet, focus on lower leverage. What it will actually do is make you focus on long term goals. Focus on the process this giving you more sustainability in the market and therefore more maturity.
CHOOSE THE RIGHT LEVERAGE
Choosing the right leverage is a very important step in Forex trading. You can be tapered in by fancy numbers and big brokers trying to get you in, Or, you can realistically dive into what it is you actually need and what's going to benefit you more in the future. There's no right answer to how much leverage you need each strategy in each individual require different things, but what I will do is share some tips and some knowledge on how to choose the right one that benefits you.
1. Always try and maintain the lowest leverage you possibly can for your strategy. If you manage to pull it right the way into where you can only just open the positions on the risk you have allowed yourself, and you can't open more than, lets say three positions, what you actually do is limit yourself to focus on only the good positions. You've prevented over trading from occurring and you can really focus on your risk management.
2. When you open positions or you talk about opening positions instead of going to people saying, "yes, I opened 0.35 lots." Use the actual dollar value when you open a 0.35 lot position. Instead, say "I opened a $35,000 position." Talking in that language that you have placed your bets with $100,000 or $1,000,000 will make you realize how much risk you're actually exposing yourself to and the capacity of what it is you are trading.
3. Limit your overall risk, at absolute Max, I risk 0.25%. This allows me to go into large drawdowns and it not be an issue. I can still manage it accordingly in it actually keeps me nice and calm and focused on the analysis rather than the running profit and loss.
The bottom line is selecting the right Forex leverage depends on the traders experienced risk tolerance and comfort when operating in the market. You want to ensure that it's not out there to harm you, but rather it's there to help. You do not want be trying to get really high leverage so you can make large profits, when you know realistically, there is no evidence to prove that you will make those high profits. Start small, gain consistency, gain exposure and gain experience, and then you can start looking to expand your equity and buying power.
When you should use leverage in your trades?When you should use leverage in your trades? I’m going to answer this question, but first, we have to mention two other questions to be answered.
Q1: What is a reasonable trade?
An order in which the entry point, stop loss, and take profit are already pre-defined based on a good return strategy or rules.
Q2: What is money management?
Money management is to determine the percentage of risk on the total balance in each order and to know what your position size will be and how much your potential loss will be.
We need to do some calculations to answer the first question.
Let’s suppose your account balance is $100 and the maximum risk on your balance for each trade is 5%. This means that on a reasonable trade, your loss will be $5 at most. Besides that, you have a good trading opportunity with an entry point at $10, stop loss at $9, and profit point at $12, i.e. 10% potential risk and 20% potential reward for the position.
Since we cannot lose more than $5 of our balance, we need a position size where the potential loss will not exceed $5. Which we can calculate with this formula: (Max risk on balance / position risk * 100). Which would be $50 in our case.
This means that we are only allowed to include $50 out of $100 in this trade; this would be $5 after a 10% loss.
Everything is normal and we can afford it, so we will do the trade.
Now, let’s increase the max risk on balance to 20%. It means our potential loss would be at most $20. By doing the same calculations considering the same reasonable trade with 10% risk, our position size will be $200 while we do not have more than $100, so where do we get $200 from?!
Yep! Leverage would help you in this case. So benevolent, isn’t it?
In this case, your leverage would be 2 and you can open a $200 position, but don’t forget you increased your account risk from 5% to 20% already.
Note that the risk will be applied to your real asset. If your balance is $100 and the leverage is 10, the exchange will give you about $1000 to buy or sell. While the 5% of $100 is $5, the 5% of $1000 would be $50, which is 50% of your real asset. So calculating the risk on leverage balance is practically meaningless!
What if we had 10 orders simultaneously? It means $100 will be split between 10 orders. For ease of calculation, we consider every 10 trades to be the same as what we had above, while each trade would have 10% of $100. In these conditions, each trade would again have a $50 position, but leverage will be 5!
Having said that, we can conclude that leverage alone is meaningless and finds meaning alongside reasonable trade opportunities and money management.
In the above explanations, for the ease of calculation and context understanding, I used rand but not necessarily correct values. For example, a risk ratio of 5% on balance is a really high risk or in the example of 10 trades at once, it is wrong to consider your balance as $100 at the start of each trade. In the worst-case scenario, you should deduct the loss of the previous trade from your balance for the next trade.
From the link below, you can access the tool I prepared to calculate the position details.
bit.ly
Feel free to give your constructive feedback.
How the higher time frames help you to avoid unnecessary losses Hello everyone:
Today I want to discuss the importance of higher time frame analysis.
Doesn't matter what type of trading strategy, method or style you use,
the higher time frame often will help us to strengthen our bias overall and give us a good perspective of the possible direction for the price to go.
In addition, it helps traders to avoid unnecessary losses and mediocre entries that will eat up your profits.
More often I hear traders will execute trades on the lower time frames, and not factor the overall higher time frame bias and perspective.
Although entering on the smaller time frame can potentially give you more Risk:Reward, it's often more risky and trades can easily reverse, then hit the stop loss.
This often creates stress, negativity, and revenge trading psychology for traders which ended up blowing accounts.
I want to give a few examples of higher time frame analysis, how they can help traders to avoid “traps” on the lower time frames, avoid unnecessary losses, and keep the emotion at bay to trade another day.
When having a bullish bias on the HTFs, its good risk management to not consider any short term, bearish sell setups.
These sell setups may form on the LTFs, but they can easily not continue to your desired target, and reverse up before you have time to react.
In addition, traders hate to see profit come and go.
So if a trader has a short position running in some profit, but decides to hold onto the trade, and once the position reverses, traders don't want to exit, and then end up holding a losing position to its SL.
Examples:
AUDUSD:
HTF: Overall bias and perspective in bullish
LTF: Many LTF bearish setups/development, but due to going against the HTF, they ended up with losses
NZDUSD:
HTF: Overall bias and perspective in bullish
LTF: Many LTF bearish setups/development, but due to going against the HTF, they ended up with losses
AUDCHF:
HTF: Overall bias and perspective in bullish
LTF: LTF bearish setups/development, but due to going against the HTF, ended up with loss
NZDCHF:
HTF: Overall bias and perspective in bullish
LTF: LTF bearish setups/development, but due to going against the HTF, ended up with loss
NZDCAD:
HTF: Overall bias and perspective in bullish
LTF: LTF bearish setups/development, but due to going against the HTF, ended up with loss
SILVER:
HTF: Overall bias and perspective in bullish
LTF: LTF bearish setups/development, but due to going against the HTF, ended up with loss
Three pillars of trading success 📈💲It's time for my mid week educational post.
Today I want to talk about the three pillars needed by all traders for success in the markets.
This isn't just the forex market either this applies to trading all financial markets.
Be it forex, crypto or stocks, so lets get into the the three pillars of success.
PILLAR NUMER ONE- STRATEGY
You MUST have an edge before entering the markets.
When will you enter the market?
When will you close?
What % per trade will you risk?
What pairs will you trade?
What timeframes will you trade?
If you don't have any answers to the above you are entering the markets blind and it will end in tears.
In trading, edge is your ability to select trades that perform better than random.
You can think of edge as the process used to generate and execute entry and exit signals.
Do not enter the markets until you are working a strategy with a proven edge.
The stronger your edge, the more profitable you’ll be.
PILLAR NUMBER TWO- RISK MANAGEMENT
We can't avoid the white elephant in the room on average 80% of trader lose money or fail in the markets.
Some say its even more and you will become one of the stats if risk management isn't applied to your trading.
Some of the reasons losses like these exist in trading is down to the fact that aspiring traders don’t put any thought into their risk management tolerance.
We only ever see the upside when we start out and many never do anything to protect themselves from potential losses.
If you never made any money as a trader before or entered the markets before ask yourself the question below before starting out.
How much money am I comfortable losing?
Your first priority with trading is to stay in the game
So manage your risk per trade and total risk at anyone time.
Understand probability and ensure you are comfortable with your maximum exposure at any one time.
Understand the maximal draw down in your testing when finding your edge.
That way it will help you see what a potential losing run you could experience.
PILLAR NUMBER THREE- TRADING PSYCHOLOGY
We need good trading psychology to keep a balanced mind whilst trading, this stops your emotions leading the trade.
The trade outcome cannot be controlled and you MUST detah yourself from each trade outcome.
You will know when your trading emotions are nailed on when you do not 'FEEL ' anything when trading.
If you have 'emtions' with your trades or when trading simply reduce your risk further.
Two emotions that need particular attention are GREED and FEAR.
You need discipline in controlling these two emotions or you are going to end up making losses as a trader.
We all been there we make a few profits confidence kicks in and then greed before you know it your in whole world of pain.
We all be there at some point with fear to and not executing trades due to a fear being in our trading game say from a poor run of form.
Emotions will always be there we are emotional beings, but they will need controlling in order for you to be a successful trader.
Practice developing the emotional control needed to trade successfully.
FINAL THOUHGHTS
Trading requires 100% commitment most see it as a hobby to start with but this can be costly hobby if commitment to trading is lacking.
The sole reason most get into trading is to make money. One purpose of a business is to make money.
Treat trading as a business at the end of the day it's your personal money that's on the line.
Every trader needs to have a disciplined approach to the markets. Following these three steps will help you.
In order to be a successful trader and run a profitable account, it is essential that you have these three pillars in your trading.
Thanks for taking the time to read my idea.
Darren 👍
What are the parts of a trading strategy?What are the parts of a trading strategy?
I was doing a backtest on a new concept yesterday, and I realized the different parts of my testing strategy. At that moment, I became aware that the way I see any trading strategy is like an algorithm with several filters or steps. When those filters become "TRUE," we can check the following filter until we have a valid setup. Another way of understanding a trading strategy is like a funnel with different filters. At the end of the funnel, we have two possible outcomes.
Outcome 1. You are allowed to set pending orders.
Outcome 2. Do not place orders because one or more filters are not "TRUE."
Why am I writing about this? Because it was clear to me that even if you are doing it consciously or not, every strategy is like an algorithm; it doesn't matter if you trade manually. In the end, your brain is taking the price and making it go through a funnel of filters. So my intention today is that by putting together those different filters/stages/steps I realized yesterday, you can try to see them in your strategy and make improvements to your system or maybe become aware of something you have been doing.
It's important to say that this is a template, maybe you are using 2 filters, or perhaps you are using 5. The key point is understanding the step-by-step process that systematic strategies follow every time a setup is developed.
--------------------------------------------------------
FILTER 1: GENERAL CONTEXT
The most probable thing is that your first filter is about general context. What we are trying to answer here is, "Are we in a valid place for the strategy or not?" Some examples can be:
- The price must be in contact with a support/resistance zone.
- The price must be above/below (a certain technical level)
- The price must be on a drawdown of (time)
(TRUE / FALSE)?. IF true, proceed with the following filter; IF false, you are not allowed to trade.
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FILTER 2: SPECIFIC CONTEXT.
Now that your first filter is TRUE, the most probable thing is that you are using the 2nd filter regarding context; this is pretty similar to the previous filter but happens after the first one is true. Example:
- Moving averages should be in the following order...
- The price must be above/below (a certain secondary technical level)
- On a lower timeframe, the price must be (technical condition)
(TRUE / FALSE)?. IF true, proceed with the following filter; IF false, you are not allowed to trade.
--------------------------------------------------------
FILTER 3: FINAL CONTEXT BEFORE THE TRIGGER.
Here you will be paying attention to the final filter before the trigger; this is the last thing that, if TRUE, you will be able to wait for your trigger. Example:
- A technical indicator must be overbought/oversold.
- Volume at a certain level should be...
- I need to see a divergence.
(TRUE / FALSE)?. IF true, proceed with the following filter; IF false, you are not allowed to trade.
--------------------------------------------------------
FILTER 4: THE TRIGGER
All the filters are TRUE, and we are allowed to wait for the last thing before executing a setup, "The Trigger." Your trigger is a set of parameters that will enable you to place pending orders. Let's take a look at some of them:
- Candlestick Patterns
- Technical Structures (like Zig-Zag, Triangles, Irregulars, Flat, etc.)
(TRUE / FALSE)?. IF true + Risk to Reward ratio is aligned with the minimum requirements. Then set, Entry level / Stop level / Break-Even level / Take Profit level.
--------------------------------------------------------
My conclusion:
If I understand the different filters I'm using on my strategy, from general to specific ones, it becomes straightforward to make improvements or detect elements that require fixing. Instead of saying "My strategy is not working" or "My strategy requires improvements," we can say: My trigger is excellent. However, my filters regarding general context are not on point so I will work on that.
Understanding the parts of your trading strategy, like parts of an engine, will bring you insights into what you are doing. Try to see your system as a series of gears working together.
Thanks for reading!
Managing Drawdowns - Do This When You're Underperforming!Hello Traders. It's been awhile since I last uploaded a workshop. Myself as a full-time trader, to be frank, the past 6 months have been tough for my personally. I've gone through some really bad drawdowns, mostly due to my external pressure that's causing me to have lower performance.
In today's topic, I am going to talk about "Drawdowns", which is not something people usually talk about. Social media, Youtube, all these platforms are made to make you 'feel bad'! People are constantly showing off their profits, but who'd willing to really open up to their drawdowns and bad trades?
Drawdowns are inevitable in trading, the only you can eliminate drawdown is to not take any trade/ risk. Make sense?
From my humble six years of trading experience, i realize most of the successful traders have one thing they are very good at - which is managing drawdowns and negative emotions. Think about it, we're all human, we're all a normal trader, why would some constantly achieving such a high performance while some constantly losing?
These are the four simple steps to help you in refining your drawdowns and hopefully get you out of it.
1. Understanding probabilities
- While we're in a drawdown (negativity), it's vital for us to take a step back and look at the numbers. Three things to read - trading plan, strategies data, market condition. If you're whatever you do is wrong, that's usually due your forcing trades during uncertain market environment/ condition, try to re-assess everything.
2. 3R Process (Review, Reflect, Revise)
- This is the most important process i've utilized for years to improve my trading consistency. Review your trading plan and all your journaling, then reflect what's the root of the problems, then find solutions around it. Remember to simplify things! By over-complicating your journaling, trading plan, or trading systems, really don't help things to be better.
3. Eliminate negativity
- Us, especially as a full-time trader, is common for us to blame ourself due to our bad decisions. But sometimes understand that no one wants to be in a drawdown, as it is all probability-based. Who want to lose money? But over the years, i found that the most successful traders out there have one very common personality - Confident.
- Be confident on yourself, that's the easiest element that allows you to execute trades consistently and fearlessly. Believe in your system, the drawdown is only temporary, you still got a long way to go. FInd a solution, fix it.
4. Take a step back - Re-evaluate
- When you're in a drawdown, most likely your rational behaviour and emotion have been negatively impact. So stop trying to force things, take the time you need to refresh your mind, re-set your mental state then come back stronger.
- By not giving yourself time to re-set your mental state, you're not just halting your performance, it could be self-sabotaging as well. Because by that means you're not applying the 3R process, certainly not fixing the problems too.
- Most of the losing streaks have one common losing pattern (that is hidden), so it is our accountability to find our the root of the problem, then frame a set of routine and action plan to solve it.
Hope this short workshop helps you a little bit.
Let me know in the comment section below what's your worst drawdown and how do you fix it!
Do not forget to like if you enjoy the content, and share with someone who'd enjoy reading this.
Calculate your 1% risk per Trading Account to identify 3:1 R:RHello traders:
Lately there are more and more newcomers in my community,
and some are not quite familiar with risk management, especially when it comes to calculating R:R based on 1% of your account size.
Risking 1%, simply means risking 1% of your total account size.
For example, $1000 account size, is $10 per risk at 1% of trading account
$100,000 account size, is $1,000 per risk at 1% of trading account
The goal is to forecast and plan out an entry that will potentially give you at least 3:1 RR per trade or more.
Meaning by risking 1%, $1000 of your $100,000 account, you should look to achieve a $3,000 profit or more, hence giving you 3:1 RR, or +3% profit.
There are many websites that help you to calculate your R:R and position size in relation to your account.
Utilise them to calculate exactly your LOT size position in relation to your SL amount so you have a proper risk management in place.
Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know.
Thank you
Risk Management: When/How to move SL to BE and to profit in a running trade ?
Risk Management: How to filter trading opportunities if multiple setups are presenting entries:
Risk Management: 3 different entries on how to enter the impulsive phrase of price action
Risk Management: What Is Capital Partitioning ? How will it help you as a trader ?
Risk Management 101
Risk Management: How to set a Take Profit (TP) for your trades
Risk Management: How to Enter and set SL and TP for an impulse move in the market
Risk Management: How to scale in the impulsive phrase of the market condition?
Risk Management: Combine everything you learn to prevent blowing a trading account
What Time-Frame Should You Trade?Hey Traders!
One of the reason new traders don't do as well as what they first perceived is sometimes they could be trading a multitude of different things in the wrong style. That doesn't suit the way they are attempting to attack the market, or even their personality.
Today I wanted to have a look into trading the different time frames, what's required? What are the pros and what the cons of each time frame? Now there's a million different ways to trade the financial markets. The time frame you're trading is one of the most important. I wanted to jump in and provide clarity for some of the newer traders that perhaps are trading the wrong market based on what they are actually trying to achieve. I see a lot of people coming into the market to earn profits (obviously) and they come in because they want time freedom, yet they all seem to gravitate towards the scalping one minute, 5 minute and 15 minute charts, which are not going to provide time freedom even when you are successful.
I understand the adrenaline pumping in the intraday setups and then it can help people have and feed that get rich quick feeling that gravitates so many people to the market. But it's time we take it seriously. Let's seriously dive into the pros and the cons and analyze what's actually going to benefit you as a trader moving forward.
INTRADAY
Intraday trading is definitely the most frequent out of all the traders that come into the Forex market. The Forex market advertises intraday trading a lot more because the commissions and spreads are extremely affordable compared to trading other markets. Intraday traders, also known as scalpers, trade the markets on the lower timeframes, usually between the one minute and 15 minute, and trades are held throughout a day session and usually closed by the end of the day. You usually see these traders have your typical eight or nine hour window in which they sit in front of the charts and trade.
There's plenty of pros to intraday trading the high frequency of trades, the great adrenaline pumping feeling, the more opportunities across a range of different markets, you hold no overnight risk and it's very easy to dodge fundamental news. You also less reliant on those one or two big winners to bring in your yearly profits.
In saying that, there's also plenty of cons. Transaction costs are much higher when you're scalping. You have to incorporate spreads and commissions can sometimes eat up your profits. Mentally an emotionally, it is an extremely difficult task. You have to be able to be disciplined enough to make quick reaction decisions with money and risk on the line. As mentioned above, unlike the other trading systems and timeframes, it does require quite a lot of time and concentration throughout a trading session, which is why if you're chasing time freedom, I wouldn't recommend intraday trading.
SWING
Swing trading is a common way of trading, as a lot of people are able to do it part time away from whatever their main career. Swing traders trade the markets on a mid-range time frame, usually between the one hour to the four hour chart (sometimes going a little bit above). Trades are held for hours to a week and they try to profit from the larger moves in the market.
The pros to swing trading? There's plenty of opportunities, plus more than enough time to sit back and thoroughly think through your analysis. The ability to make money while doing something else, which I touched on just before, you can still have your full time job and trade after hours, and then also there are much lower transaction costs compared to intraday trading, as spreads and commissions don't tend to eat up as much as you kind of aiming for those larger moves in the market.
The cons? Swing trading of a sudden introduces this overnight risk. You're going to have to sleep at some point and you may have positions open during that time. That right there is a window of risk where you can not react to the market. I have also found that many people tend to lose sleep while they have open positions. Fundamental news releases start affecting your decision making. You're going to have to incorporate the economic calendar. It does require a lot more patience to be able to hold positions over long periods of time. You will have to be making decisions without your emotions affecting and changing your overall bias.
LONG-TERM
Finally, we start looking at our long-term investors. I call it investing because they tend to trade the markets on a higher range time frame like the daily, weekly or monthly chart. Trades are held throughout week and sometimes months trying to profit from the really large fundamental moves of the market.
The pros to long term investing or trading are you do not have to watch the market in today, the lower timeframes mean nothing to your analysis which allows you to step back and think clearly. You have much fewer transactions which relates to much lower transaction costs. You have more time to think about your trades and much more time to react to different news releases or change in market bias.
The constant long term trading are the very few opportunities per year. Fundamental knowledge is 100% required. There will be people that say you don't need it, but honestly I highly recommend you have a great deal of fundamental knowledge. It requires exponential amounts of patience and the ability to sit on your hands for weeks or months on end. It does require bigger account for more buying power so you can open multiple positions over long periods of time. Finally you will incur frequent losing months as you do not have many trades to bring that initial balance too profit.
I hope that bought a bit of clarity to the multiple timeframe traders and where you're currently sitting. Have a look at what your goals are with actually being involved with trading. Where do you want to get to? Is the time frame you're trading is actually going to allow you to get there? If you're here as a part time trader and you'd love to have that time freedom that so many people advertise. Maybe look for the bigger time frames as you can have that time to go do whatever it is you need, and you don't need to be sitting at a computer desk. If you love intraday trading and scalping and you're willing to put in the hours of work and more or less work a nine to five type role. Your scalp trading is going to be one for you.
Trading Psychology - Long Term Sustainability in the MarketHello traders:
Today I want to discuss an important topic on long term sustainability.
It is no surprise that trading any financial market has proven to be difficult, and stressful.
Many new traders come and go so fast in the industry, and it's often due to the wrong mindset, trading plan, risk management and expectations.
I want to focus on the psychology part of trading for sustainability,
as I have made many trading plan, risk management related videos already, though I can discuss more on mindset and emotion today.
My vision in trading psychology has always been: Consistency, and Sustainability .
These are a few things I tell myself each and everyday in my trading journey to help me stay sustainable in the market.
-I am NOT here to get rich quick, traders who have that mindset often failed fast and quit
-I am here to make a reasonable % return per month, based on proper risk management and trading plan.
-I understand in order to make a ridiculous return per month, it requires over-risking and over-trading,
but it's unsustainable on a larger account size. I do not wish to lose a larger account or ability to trade for larger prop firms’ accounts.
-I understand the uncertainty in the market, any strategy, method and approach will run into drawdowns and losses.
-To prevent revenge trading, over trading and over leveraged, proper mindset and emotion are needed to survive and sustain in the market
-I believe in long term sustainability, and looking to “win the lottery” by going all in on trades. 1
% per account risk with 5-7% return per month is reasonable, achievable, and sustainable in the long run.
These are just a few pointers and reminders I tell myself each and every day.
This year will mark my 9th year in trading, and I am thankful to have gone through all these trading experiences in the past that made me a better trader today.
I am still continuously learning and growing, very happy with the consistent and sustainable approach that I do.
I am sure there are many other traders with different opinions, methods, approaches in trading, with different mindset, expectations and goals.
I respect all trading strategy, perspective and options. At the end of the day, it's up to each individual trader to identify their journey and what method they wish to implement in trading.
I sincerely hope I can help some of the traders to understand the importance of long term sustainability, and that will enable traders to continue to be a part of the financial market for the years and years to come.
Thank you :)
Jojo
Risk Management Educational Video:
Risk Management: When/How to move SL to BE and to profit in a running trade ?
Risk Management 101
Risk Management: Combine everything you learn to prevent blowing a trading account
Trading Psychology Educational Video:
Trading Psychology: How to deal & manage losses/consecutive losses in trading ?
Trading Psychology: Revenge Trading
Trading Psychology: Fear Of Missing Out
Trading Psychology: Over Leveraged Trading
Trading Psychology: Is there Stop Loss Hunting in Trading ? How to deal with it ?