Continuation & Reversal Correction in price action structures
In-depth look at Continuation & Reversal Correction in price action structures/patterns
Hi everyone:
Today I want to revisit the fundamental aspect of trading impulsive and corrective phases in Price Action Analysis.
As you all know I focus on multi-time frame analysis and forecasting/anticipating the next impulsive move in the market.
To me, the most important part of identifying the next impulsive phase of the market, is to understand how correction works.
An impulse phase usually happens after a correction has finished correcting, so the key is to identify and understand how a corrections structure will complete so we anticipate the next impulsive move.
You may have seen my videos on this topic, but today I will go more in detail on this, and explain the 2 types of correctional structure the market can create.
The market can only be in 2 phases, impulsive phrase or corrective phrase.
In addition, the corrective phrase can only be continuation, or reversal.
So to fully have an edge in the market, is to understand what the correctional structure the price is currently making,
whether a continuation/reversal, then forecast the possible price outlook, and go down to the lower time frames for possible entries.
Now, it's important to understand that different traders/strategies/styles will call these patterns/structures in varies names.
What they are called or identify isn't important, but the important aspect is to understand whether they are continuation, or they are reversal.
In addition, simply seeing price action structures/patterns by itself, is not a good enough entry criteria for me.
You want to combine multi- time frame analysis, top-down approach, and with multiples of these price actions all happening so it adds extra confluence for you to enter a particular trade.
Seeing a H and S pattern, on a 5 minute chart, without considering the overall HTF and other factors, will not be a consistent move in the long run.
Continuation Correctional Structure/Pattern
Bullish/Bearish Flag
Bullish/Bearish Pennant
Parallel Channel
Reversal Correctional Structure/Pattern
Ascending/Descending Channel
Rising/Falling Wedge
Double Top/Bottom
Head & Shoulder Pattern/Inverse H and S
“M” and “W” style pattern
Reversal Impulse Price Action
I will forward all the price action structures/patterns videos I have made in the past to help you understand each of the structures more.
Impulse VS Correction
Multi-time frame analysis
Identify a correction for the next impulse move in price action analysis
Continuation Bull/Bear Flag
Parallel Channel (Horizontal, Ascending, Descending)
Reversal Ascending/Descending Channel
Reversal Double Top/Bottom
Reversal Head & Shoulder Pattern
Reversal “M” and “W” style pattern
Reversal Impulse Price Action
Continuation/Reversal Expanding Structure/Pattern
Any questions, comments or feedback please let me know. :)
Thank you
Jojo
Trading Plan
How to manage & deal with consecutive losses in trading ?
Trading Psychology: How to manage & deal with losses/consecutive losses in trading ?
Hi everyone:
Today I want to go over a very key trading psychology lesson on how to deal with losses, especially consecutive losses.
This is bound to happen to any traders, whether you are new or experienced. ITs something all professional traders will have to deal with on a regular basis.
Understand that, dealing with losses psychologically is the key factor in the success of a trader.
This is because losses are inevitable, and trading is a probability, which trades that you take will end up both in wins and losses.
However, traders usually can not accept losses, due to their ego, greed and other emotional factors.
Aside from having a good risk management, trading plan, and trading strategies, traders can still experience the psychological emotions of losing.
This is due to the fact that we are humans and we are an “emotional” animal. We don't want to be wrong, at all.
Taking a loss is like getting slapped in the face by the market, which we have egos to fight against.
What ends up after taking losses or consecutive losses, it puts traders at a disadvantage where their emotion is high, and likely to “revenage” trade to chase back losses, which end up in a deeper hole.
To deal with such psychological phenomena, take a step back and observe your situation:
First, did you follow your trading plan/strategy on how to enter, set SL/TP, and management ?
Second, did you take an emotional trade due to greed or fear of missing out ?
Third, have you journal down your losses and review them to make sure they are trades you really want to risk your capitals on ?
By now you will see why we need to review these. Trading is a probability, not right or wrong. It's a random variable that you are putting your $ at risk.
So if you understand the rules and plans that you follow and execute a trade accordingly,
then there should NOT be any negative emotions towards the outcome of the trades, whether they are winners or losers.
When I discuss the trades I entered every week in my trade recaps videos, I am always happy to enter a position, even if it goes to a loss.
This is because I have done enough backtesting, chart work, and plan to enter a position.
I understand strictly from a probability point of view, I could have a higher strike rate, and more often the trades will end up as a winner rather than a loser.
However, I also understand and acknowledge that some trades will end up in a loss, disregard mine technical analysis or other’s fundamental analysis. It is what trading is all about.
When I have consecutive losses, I will always review the 3 points I mentioned above and make sure they are all valid for me.
Then I simply will take 1 day off from the market, chart, phone, and just get your mind clear. Come back strong after 1-2 days of rest, and have a positive mindset.
What traders often do when they have consecutive losses is to right away re-enter back into the market and try to chase back their losses.
This has always been the downfall of losing and it creates anxiety in traders’ minds.
Such a negative experience is going to stay in the traders’ mind longer and deeper, compared to consecutive winners.
So wise we understand that is the case how our brain is "programmed” into thinking, then it's up to us to do the opposite, and fight the urge to “revenge” our losses.
At the end of the day, no one is trading your trading account, except yourself.
Taking ownership of your account, learning to control our emotions, understanding the probability side of trading, and learning to let go, drop our ego will help us in the long run in this industry.
I hope these pointers can help some traders who are still struggling with this concept.
It's impossible not to take losses, but professional traders deal with it on a regular basis and still remain consistent in the long run.
Thank you
I will forward some Trading Psychology educational videos below on some of the topics explained today.
Trading Psychology: Revenge Trading
Trading Psychology: Fear Of Missing Out
Trading Psychology: Over Leveraged Trading
Trading Psychology: Is there Stop Loss Hunting in Trading ? How to deal with it ?
TradingView: Look first / Then leap.Every once in a while you have to commit to something that pushes the boundaries of your comfort zone — that gets your heart beating, the breath shaky and palms sweaty. For us, that’s this moment right now, where we share with you the efforts of a project that’s been a long time in the making. It’s with great pleasure that we present to you the new look and feel for TradingView!
Our mission has forever been: Always an informed decision. That it doesn’t matter who you are, where you’re from or what your risk appetite is, everyone is entitled to the right tools and the right information to make the best trading and investment decisions possible.
Now, to articulate that ambition more evocatively, you’ll see us using the concept Look first / Then leap . We think this sums up what TradingView is all about — there’s no point jumping blindly into trades (that’s why you use charts) but at the same time you don’t just do 100% of your analysis just for fun — there’s got to be some commitment required.
First you prepare, then you go for it: Look first / Then leap.
We will be sharing updates all week about our new look and feel. You'll also have a chance to meet our sponsored sports stars including the legendary free soloist featured in this video Alex Honnold , renowned free-skier Caite Zeliff and adventurer Leo Houlding .
Thank you for being a member, sharing feedback, and working your hardest to become the best trader or investor. This is a monumental day in our history together.
The 3 Types of Traders. Who Do You Belong To? 🤔
There are thousands of different ways to trade the market.
During the last 100 years, various trading strategies and techniques were invented.
One of the ways to categorize them is to split them by types of traders.
Such a category type will lean on 2 main elements:
trading frequency and time frame selection.
1️⃣ - Scalper
I guess 99% of newbie traders start from scalping.
Trying to catch quick market moves and become rich quick,
newbies are practicing different scalping strategies.
What is funny about scalping is the fact that such a trading style is considered to be the easiest by the majority while remaining one of the hardest in the view of pros.
The main obstacle with scalping is a constant focus and rapid decision-making.
Scalpers usually open dozens of trading positions during the trading session, most of the time being in front of the screen constantly.
Paying huge commissions to the broker and dealing with complete chaos on lower time frames, the majority simply can't survive the pressure and drop, leaving the pie to true gurus.
2️⃣ - Day Trader
Day trading or intraday trading is the most appealing to me.
Staying relatively active, the market gives some time for the trader for reflection & thinking.
Opening and managing on average 1-2 trades per trading session, the intraday trader is granted a certain degree of freedom.
However, with declining volatility, quite ofter intraday traders get a relatively low risk/reward ratio for their trades,
3️⃣ - Swing Trader
Swing trading is the best choice for traders having a full-time job.
Primarily being focused on daily/weekly time frames, swing trading is not demanding for a daily routine and aims at catching mid-term/long-term market moves.
With an average holding period being around 2 weeks and opening 1-2 trading positions per week, swing trading is considered to be the least emotional and involves low risk.
The main problem with swing trading is patience.
Correctly identifying the market trend and opening a trading position,
the majority tends to close their positions preliminary not being patient enough to let the price reach their target.
Which trading type do you prefer?
❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️
PSYCHOLOGY OF A TRADER | MASTER EMOTIONS & MASTER THE MARKET
The market is driven by people.
The crowds are always behind strong market rallies.
What the majority fails to recognize is the fact, that being chaotics in its nature, the markets are always trading in predictable patterns.
Believe it or now, but the market participants are driven by the same emotional impulses. It does not really depend on how wealthy is the person.
With the core motive being to make a ton of money with a little risk possible, we can derive a universal archetype.
Every asset, every financial instrument has an element of a "potential value". Being 100% subjective, an attempt to calculate the future value drives the market.
Depending on the current expectation of the crowd and its emotions it is necessary for a professional trader to learn to play with its behavior.
With many years of constant observations, the cyclic psychological curve was derived to explain the relationships between our emotions and market cycles.
On the chart, I have drawn 9 main stages of trader's psychology:
😶INDIFFERENCE - No opportunities are spotted, searching for the right pick.
🙂OPTIMISM – Positive outlook leading us to buy a certain asset
😃EXCITEMENT – Being initially right in our pick, we feel excited as bulls push the market to the new highs
The moment of happiness and feeling of being "a true investor"
🤑GREED – Being thrilled we start to ignore warning signs and add more and more cash to the market believing that the market will never stop.
😕ANXIETY – The market starts taking our gains back. Being biased and nihilistic we keep holding the position, thinking that it is just a pullback.
😩PANIC – Tremor. We are frozen. Emotions are draining our power. We are clueless and helpless. We totally lose the sense of control.
😭DEPRESSION – Position is closed. Money is lost. Considering trading & investment industry to be a scam.
🤔HOPE – The dawn. The market returns back to its normal state. Aspiration & desire to start again.
😆RELIEF – Again we start to believe in our strength. We return and the cycle repeats.
Do you recognize yourself in these stages?
Please, support our work with like and comment. It really helps.
PSYCHOLOGY OF A TRADER | MASTER EMOTIONS & MASTER THE MARKET
The market is driven by people.
The crowds are always behind strong market rallies.
What the majority fails to recognize is the fact, that being chaotics in its nature, the markets are always trading in predictable patterns .
Believe it or now, but the market participants are driven by the same emotional impulses . It does not really depend on how wealthy is the person.
With the core motive being to make a ton of money with a little risk possible, we can derive a universal archetype .
Every asset, every financial instrument has an element of a "potential value" . Being 100% subjective, an attempt to calculate the future value drives the market.
Depending on the current expectation of the crowd and its emotions it is necessary for a professional trader to learn to play with its behavior.
With many years of constant observations, the cyclic psychological curve was derived to explain the relationships between our emotions and market cycles.
On the chart, I have drawn 9 main stages of trader's psychology:
😶 INDIFFERENCE - No opportunities are spotted, searching for the right pick.
🙂 OPTIMISM – Positive outlook leading us to buy a certain asset
😃 EXCITEMENT – Being initially right in our pick, we feel excited as bulls push the market to the new highs
The moment of happiness and feeling of being "a true investor"
🤑 GREED – Being thrilled we start to ignore warning signs and add more and more cash to the market believing that the market will never stop.
😕 ANXIETY – The market starts taking our gains back. Being biased and nihilistic we keep holding the position, thinking that it is just a pullback.
😩 PANIC – Tremor. We are frozen. Emotions are draining our power. We are clueless and helpless. We totally lose the sense of control.
😭 DEPRESSION – Position is closed. Money is lost. Considering trading & investment industry to be a scam.
🤔 HOPE – The dawn. The market returns back to its normal state. Aspiration & desire to start again.
😆 RELIEF – Again we start to believe in our strength. We return and the cycle repeats.
Do you recognize yourself in these stages?
Please, support our work with like and comment. It really helps.
What is Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern?Inverse Head and shoulders Pattern is the mirror image of head and shoulders pattern.
Read about Head and Shoulder Pattern here:
Inverse H&S Pattern is bullish reversal pattern. Signals the traders to enter into long position above the neckline.
Volume play a major role in both H&S and Inverse H&S Patterns. Usually the spike in volume on breakout is considered as a great signal for bullish entry.
Again a suitable target can be obtained by measuring the distance between head and neckline of the pattern and using same distance to project the target .
After the neckline breakout there is also a probability that prices can be retrace again to neckline due to lack of demand . Prices can only rise if again there is more demand which will lead to bullish uptrend.
Also if the neckline slopes slightly upward that is the sign of greater market strength thus gives further conformation to go bullish on Inverse H&S Patter .
Let us know what do you think about Inverse H&S Pattern? Please comment your views/doubts!
As always nothing works every time in
markets. Please do your research before taking any position. This is only for Educational Purpose.
We are covering all Major Reversal and continuation patterns in this series.
Follow to get updated with all the informative and educational trading ideas.
Next Pattern we will cover: Round Bottom Pattern
PS: We are publishing this again for global audience.
TOXIC TRADERS ☠️📌 Both optimism and pessimism is the worst thing to happen to a trader.
⚠️ Please do not believe in a chart or have a faith for that...
📍 Being realistic and trade based on reasonable facts is the best way of trading. Always make decision based on facts and DO NOT TRUST YOUR HEART NOT EVEN ONCE.
⚠️ Set your risk by considering your character; are you willing enough to take risks as dangerous as completely losing all your money?
⚠️ As I wanna mention it again: NEVER BELIEVE IN CHART. Just see it as a potential oppurtunity.
📍 Trading is a game of numbers, mathemtics, algorithms, cycles, supply and demand, economics, etc. One of the most strict majors in the human history.
⚠️ Do not include your emotions and or you belief or faith in this game.
This is not a financial advice, I just am willing to share my own experiece with you guys
With y'all a very happy and profitable lifestyle
The Death of Buy-and-Hold reduxAs a follow-up to my previous article, “The Death of Buy-and-Hold” , Bitcoin in these last four months has demonstrated quite vividly to us the error of that outdated methodology, that Buy-and-Hold is truly dead and technical trading is superior to what is called “investing” today.
In the two month period from February, 2021 through April, Bitcoin enjoyed a meteoric rise, gaining 100% in value during that 60 day period. However, as they say, “The bigger they are, the harder they fall…“ And fall it did… Bitcoin gave back every penny in the following two months crashing back to its February levels.
The most profitable, reliable, and consistent trading systems available to the average investor, as I demonstrated in previous articles , are those systems based on "supply and demand" methodologies. We can’t fight the hedge funds. We can’t fight China. We can’t fight the “whales” of the crypto market.
… But we can follow their footprints as traders .
I backtested Bitcoin based on my own proprietary supply and demand methodology, but I would assume that any supply and demand system would achieve similar results because we are all chasing the same protagonist (or antagonist, depending on how you look at them).
The results: From January 1, 2021 through June 22, buying and and holding Bitcoin would’ve net a zero return for the investor! Following a supply and demand methodology, however, the casual trader who might work on the 4 hour charts, checking in on their account once or twice per day, I identified 11 trading opportunities which resulted in a net profit of 42 percent .
Why would the investor make zero and the trader make 42%? Buy-and-hold only works in one direction… When the product gains value. Supply and demand trading lets you profit rain or shine, by the day or by the hour, in good times and bad.
I bring this up, not ultimately as an "I told you so" but as an encouragement: Yes, indeed, it is possible to pull a reliable, steady income from the markets, from the cryptos , from the indexes , from the commodities , rain or shine, week after week, once you learn to "see the money flow" and follow the trail as a trader .
One does not have to have their livelihoods be subject to the whims of the economy, of policies imposed by public officials, of Tweets from CEOs, from natural disasters, from supply chain disruptions, the whims of totalitarian nations, nor an employer, employees, or customers.
Most importantly, Supply and Demand trading protects us from the large financial institutions who regularly engage in Market Manipulation , whose tactics include fear and greed news cycles, whose analysts and "experts" foment 'sentiment' among their viewing audience, whose priority is to broadcast information that will financially benefit themselves, and not their viewers.
Trade well!
👶 Trading For Beginners | ORDER TYPES 👦👧
There are multiple ways of opening a trade in a trading terminal.
Here is the list of universal order types that you MUST know:
1. Market Order
A market order is a trade order to buy or sell a desired financial instrument on a current market price.
In such an order type, the price is determined by the market.
Constant price fluctuations and spreads make market order quite risky way of opening a trading position.
2. Limit Order
A limit order is a trade order to buy or sell a desired financial instrument at a specific price level. It allows the trader to enter the market on a strict price level ignoring the price fluctuations and spreads.
A limit order can be referred to as a buy limit order or a sell limit order.
3. Buy/Sell Stop Order
Buy stop order is used to buy at a price above the market price, and it is triggered when the market price touches or goes through the Buy Stop leve.
Sell stop order is used to sell when a specified price is reached.
The selection of order types is based on a trader's trading style.
Let me know in a comment section which order types do you apply in your trading!
Please, like this post and subscribe to our tradingview page!
👶 Trading For Beginners | ORDER TYPES 👦👧
There are multiple ways of opening a trade in a trading terminal.
Here is the list of universal order types that you MUST know:
1. Market Order
A market order is a trade order to buy or sell a desired financial instrument on a current market price.
In such an order type, the price is determined by the market.
Constant price fluctuations and spreads make market order quite risky way of opening a trading position.
2. Limit Order
A limit order is a trade order to buy or sell a desired financial instrument at a specific price level. It allows the trader to enter the market on a strict price level ignoring the price fluctuations and spreads.
A limit order can be referred to as a buy limit order or a sell limit order.
3. Buy/Sell Stop Order
Buy stop order is used to buy at a price above the market price, and it is triggered when the market price touches or goes through the Buy Stop leve.
Sell stop order is used to sell when a specified price is reached.
The selection of order types is based on a trader's trading style.
Let me know in a comment section which order types do you apply in your trading!
Please, like this post and subscribe to our tradingview page!
How To Set Up A Trade On Hour ChartIf you have a $5,000 account (USD currency)- want to trade Aud/Jpy currency with a 2% risk, what do you do? You need to know trade size on all pairs and pip value, so you can set stop loss, entry order and take profit/exit order- per your trading strategy and risk management tolerance.
1) go to Forex pip calculator online
2) Aud/Jpy current value of a pip Value of standard lot (units 100,000) is $900.45< yes, that is right!! What they are saying is every pip the AJ pair moves on a standard size is a $900 USD move (Crazy) Can you trade this lot size? NO. How about Micro Lot (units 1,000)? yes, pip value is $9.00.
3) On one hour AJ pair example chart, there are three noted trades: two bullish (1st and 3rd) and one bearish (2nd).
4) If you catch all three trades with by placing a 1: 4 Risk/Reward setup on them. What does that mean? (stop loss is around $100 per trade, related to 2% of account if you have $5,000 USD)- As your account gets higher, lets say $100,000 USD or more, even 1% would work- but to each their own)
5) Your stop loss is over entry of any bearish trades or under entry of any bullish trades by 10 pips or ($90.00 of risk) to make 40 pips or ($360.00)- possible on all three noted trades on chart. If you would have hit all three trades just right, you would have been in the money after two days around $1,000 USD with only risking 2% of your account. This is how the turtle beat the hare in Forex trading race- slowly but surely. If you trade micro lot of 500 units, you could have a larger 20 pip stop stop (around $100) and 40 pip targets would with a pip value of $4.50 instead (trade conservatively until confidence grows)
Put yourself in best position for success in Forex trading: Before any new trades know where to put stop, entry and profit orders. After your trade is active just let it play out, because the market is out of your hands at that point. Note keep in mind: right pair, right price, right session & right time.
The Lack of Knowledge in Forex - How to succeed in this businessThere is a big lack of knowledge in this forex industry. Retail Trader always forget that we are in the Champion League here and that we need to have a lot of knowledge in order to succeed.
Key Elements are
- Trading Plan
- Strategy
- Money and Risk Management
Predicting the right direction of the forex pairs is not to 100% possible and not even necessary. The key is to understand how to react to the new changes within the market. It is like in life.
Hopefully I could help you with this video.
Tell me your feedback
What do you think?
Introducing our new Chart Preview featureOur new Chart Preview feature simplifies the way you follow your favorite symbols from iPhones or iPads. Please note: we have exciting updates coming to our Android app, so please stay patient. We won't let you down! 😎
Chart Preview is intuitive for all investors and traders. Beginners and pros can use it seamlessly to study their watchlist and then dive into the advanced chart when it's time.
We created Chart Preview to let traders quickly scan and study symbols from a viewpoint that is simple and beautiful. With a second tap, traders can dive into the advanced chart and begin their research process using technical and fundamental analysis. Start simple and get more advanced depending on your skill level.
On iPhone, users can toggle our new Chart Preview feature on or off depending on their preference. You decide whether you want to see a quick preview or jump straight to the advanced chart. We know many of you would rather be analyzing charts with all the power of our advanced tools, so you can decide what you would rather see first.
Make sure your app is updated and using the latest version. Remember: our mobile apps are free for iOS and Android devices.
Thanks for being a TradingView member and we look forward to reading your feedback and comments below.
Setting Alarms For Fun and ProfitOne of the most attractive things about being a trader is that once you become proficient with your trading system you don't have to spend all day in front of your computer like an extra in the Walking Dead. There's a lot more to life than trading. The goal is that once we have developed that skill, we can “trade to live” and not “live to trade.”
I like to teach that trading is like fishing - Your job is to go into the water, cast a few lines, and wait for the fish to come and snag a hook. The keyword there is wait . Once you set your lines, you don't have to babysit them: go do something else. (We trade to live, after all!)
Likewise, with trading, once you have developed a certain level of skill in "setting your lines", you should only need to spend about 30-60 minutes in front of your computer "working". Then you simply need to wait until the trade, that is price, gets snagged onto your hook. In the meantime, go do whatever it is in life that you enjoy doing.
How do fishermen then know when a fish has taken the bait? Some fishermen attach a small bell on the end of their pole, a “fishing buddy”, and as the fish jerks the line the bell alerts the fisherman that “he’s got a live one!”
How is is that Alarms can instantly become your "fishing buddy?" Let us count the ways:
First: Management of Buying Power
Let's say you have a $10,000 trading account. You wake up, do your morning routine, head to your home office (or the kitchen table) and “go fishing” in the Futures markets. You find three great opportunities for Soybeans, Oil, and Copper. The margin requirements for each of them (per contract) is $4,500, $5,800, and $7,300, respectively.
Futures trading requires that you have a certain amount of capital in your account per trade setup, known as the margin, or buying power, at the time you setup your trade. This "margin" is set aside in your account and can't be used, even if the trade hasn't been triggered or entered. If you wanted to setup all three of those trades before you headed to work you would need $17,600 in your account. But you only have $10,000. What do you do?
In the past, when I ran into this situation, I would have to guess (or hope) I would choose the correct trade to place before I left for work, and send just that one trade to my broker. Inevitably, I would choose the one losing trade, or the one that didn't get hit , and it ended up that one or more of the other trades turned out to be winners - the trades I did not take - all because I couldn't put on all three at the same time. Aaargh!!! Every day I felt like the trading gods were against me!
Here's where alarms can become your best friend.
Let's say at any given moment if you received an alarm, you would be able to respond to that alarm within an hour. You could setup an alert line 1/24th the daily ATR away from your entry price. For example, at the time I am writing this, the Daily ATR for Crude Oil is 1.7708 - the average distance or range that Oil trades in a day. Divide that by 24 and on average, oil moves about .0738 per hour.
If you are looking to go long oil at $73, you would draw a horizontal line at 73.0738, and set an alert on the line, giving you about an hour to check that the trade is still valid. When price activates your alert, you can log into your trading platform, verify that you still want to take the trade, right-click the long-short tool (which you had setup beforehand) and send the trade to your broker, whereby then and only then will the $5,800 be allocated from your Buying Power.
It is unlikely that all three trades will hit at the same time so this gives you the "buffer time" needed to efficiently manage the available capital in your account to take as many trades as possible.
Using alerts in this manner can help you minimize the number of missed opportunities you might experience because of the limited amount of buying power you may have.
Second: Trade Opportunity Alerts
In the futures market, I have what I call my "31 Flavors" - the 31 Futures contracts that I actively trade. On any given morning I might find 5 assets where I’m looking for a long opportunity, another 5 assets that I’m looking for a short, and the rest aren’t in any trend or environment where I’m looking to trade.
Many indicators let you set an alarm when a certain condition occurs. For instance, I can set an alarm on the ten high-probability assets I have flagged to let me know “Hey, Captain: a Sabre Long opportunity just formed on the S&P;”, or “Hey Captain, a short opportunity with the pattern you are looking for just popped up on Crude Oil.”
Likewise, if you are following a Moving Average strategy, you can setup an alarm saying “Hey, Trader: XYZ just crossed the 89 Moving Average” or "ABC just crossed the 40 day Moving Average.
At the time of this writing TradingView will let you setup up to 400 of these alerts. (P.S. - If you need more than 400 alerts, you're probably overtrading... just sayin') :-)
When the alert is triggered you can just take a few minutes out of your day outside of your normal trading hours to check in and see if that mid-day opportunity is worth setting up. After a couple minutes, you can get back to what it was you were doing.
The myth of the day trader who is glued to his or her computer all day in fear of missing an opportunity is just that - a myth, because alerts free you up to do what is important. Remember, we are trading to live - we aren't living to trade.
Finally: Trade Management
Let's say you are a swing trader. Trades you enter may take anywhere from 3 to 30 days to hit their target. Say, however, you have a hard and fast rule to take 3R profit from all of your trades because you would rather take 3R any day rather than see price go to 5R, or 7R, just to have it come on back and stop you out for a loss due to emotions or lack of paying attention, because, yes, you trade to live - you're not tethered to your computer or smartphone all day. You've got better things to do. (At least I hope you do!)
You can setup an alarm to let you know that a trade you have running achieves 3R of profit, whereby you can then move your stop, then check in on it each morning and/or evening to see how you may want to lock in more profit or call it a day and cash in on your winning trade.
Conclusion:
In short: Use alarms to make your trading more efficient, more effective, and ultimately, more profitable.
Are there any other ways that you use alarms to maximize your trading game? Let us know in the comments... I'm sure we are all, myself included, dramatically under-utilize this very powerful trading tool.
Trade well, everybody!
Fighting the need to be right in the marketsIn most industrial countries the educational system was created not to truly teach students, but to generate good workers for factories and other companies. Yes, we want these highly trained individuals to be able to think critically and generate new ideas. However, we want them to be excellent employees who follow the boss's instructions. So, how do we do that? We do it through our educational process where children learn that the teacher is always right.
Children attend school for 12 to 16 years, and it is often reinforced that the instructor is always correct. For example, as a student, you are required to take tests. You learned that if you get fewer than 70% of the questions correct, you are a failure. "Why didn't you receive 100?" your father asks when you show it to him. So, your father expected you to be correct as well. As a result, we have a strong desire to be correct. If you don't get it correctly at least 70% of the time, you're labeled a failure. However, you want to be correct 100% of the time so that your father does not criticize you. As a result, you begin to criticize yourself first in order to solve the problem before your dad does.
Let's take that and apply it to the stock market, futures market, or any other investment you could make. You want to be correct, and that to you means making money. Let's assume you buy a stock for $100 and know how to establish a stop loss: if it drops below $95 per share, you'll sell.
Let's assume the price falls to $95 per share. You really want to be right, so you'd be wrong if you got out, or at least feel like you were. Your mind races with ideas such as, "It's simply a temporary setback." "Analysts expect a significant boost in earnings this quarter; I'm reluctant to sell at this time." "What if a few traders are manipulating the downturn?"
So you hang onto the stock and watch it fall even further. It drops to $90. Now you have a 2R loss. If it was hard to take a 1R loss, it’s even harder to take a 2R loss. And all the same, arguments apply. Thus, you hold onto your stock. Now the stock drops to $85 and you have a 3R loss. You know you really should get out, but now your portfolio is down $4k and you can really write off $3k in losses, so you’d better keep this stock. You know it will turn around.
Now you know why a psychologist and an economist won the Nobel Prize in economics for basically showing that it was very hard for people to take losses. People according to those Nobel prize winners become much more “tolerant of risk” when they are behind. The Nobel winners also showed that people tend to tolerate little risk when they are ahead, making it difficult to let profits run.
People tolerate risk more when they are behind (i.e won’t cut their losses) and tolerate risk less when they are ahead (i.e they won’t let their profits run).
So what can you do about your need to be right?
Instead of focusing on being right, focus on not making any mistakes, whereas a mistake occurs when you don’t follow your rules. Your rules should be the golden rules of trading (previous article material).
If you consider breaking these rules as being wrong (i.e., making a mistake), you’ll find that suddenly you can make money in the stock market or any other investment field.
In short, you must think in terms of probabilities and statistics. As a result, you can pay attention to just following your system, and making as few mistakes as possible, because when you do that, you “know” what your results will be in the long run (knowing the expectancy of your system).
Trade with care.
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Long or Short Entry Checklist? Understanding The DifferencesHi Traders, today we'll be discussing about a topic regarding " Should you have a long or short entry checklist? - Advantages & Disadvantages ". Majority's always thinking about having a long checklist to ensure they stick to their trading plan. But do you know that being too picky to your setups aren't always the best thing to do? Sometimes less is more. Below are some of the pros' and cons'
Long Checklist
Advantages
- Great filters - It allows you to identify high probability setups and filter out lower quality trades by having strict approach to the market
- Systematic approach - Having a longer checklist systematize your trading approach. It eliminates some of your negative emotion by abiding to the checklist and ticking the boxes
- Multiple confluences - A longer checklist allows you to strictly lines up multiple confirmation to each setup, which will improve your overall trading confidence
Disadvantages
- Delayed action - By adding more filters to each trade, it tightens your criteria to each setup, which might cause you to be late to some trades
- Missing out & hesitation - As you're constantly waiting for more confirmation to your trade, it might negatively turn you into an overly conservative or fearful Trader. You're always hesitating to pull the trigger due to the over-complicated checklist
- Overthink - Some of the setups or opportunity happens to be simple and impromptu, if you're imposing overly strict criteria to each position, you might end up losing some of the simple great runners
Short checklist
Advantages
- Simplicity - Less is more, by simplifying your trading system, it allows you to have less opinion in the market which leads to better clarity
- Increased opportunities - By loosen or eliminate some 'unnecessary criteria', it increases the amount of opportunities presenting to you as you're not looking for the perfect trade
- Flexibility & Reactivity - This is one of the most important traits I find in most successful Traders. Being resilient and reactive to various market condition is crucial to your long-term trading success
Disadvantages
- Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) - Understanding the difference between simplifying your process (having an edge in the market) AND having no clue of what you are doing. FOMO usually appears when you are merely trading the market to make money (outcome-oriented), rather than having a fixed process to beat the market consistently
- Revenge trading & Over-trading - Both these negative traits usually appear after FOMO, where your subconscious & conscious mind are out of control. You are chasing the market, your ego has taken over your brain, it's convincing you that whatever you're doing MUST be correct. When these signs appear, you must take a step and calm down your mind to prevent some self-sabotaging effect
- Instinct-trading/ gambling - If you're a newer Trader, an overly simplify checklist might not work for you as what you need the most is the discipline to stick to your process. The major difference between a Trader and a Gambler is that Trader never hope and pray. If you're constantly enforcing your personal will and expectation into the market (hoping & praying), this is something you should reflect upon now.
- Closing out trades early - If you do not have a systematic process, often your Caveman brain will cause you to close out your trades earlier (both winning & losing positions) due to uncertainty and fear. Your subconsciousness will always convince your to secure your profits as soon as possible, which is not the best thing to do in the long-term. Consistently profitable Traders cut their losers and ride their winners, by taking off your winners too soon you are ruining your own probability of success in this business.
Comment down below what's your worst unrealistic expectations in the market!
"A Trader looks for consistency, the Gambler looks for a quick profit."
Trade safe as usual.
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How to make money with price actionSo you want to get into price action?
Not fundamentals ey. But then one HAS to do all this backtesting, there is no dodging it.
Can't go into "TA" to dodge the FA work, and then want to also dodge the stat work xd
No magic trick here.
Let's get started immediately.
EURUSD 2020 covid trend (can't 100% dodge fundas, always good to know why we're going in a direction):
EURUSD 2018-2019 "thing" (trade war uncertainty and erratic tweets):
EURUSD 2017 trend:
We are starting to see trends last 1-2 years in recent history, so not much point looking at a 5Y chart.
It's also silly to be super zoomed in on some "intraday" or "swing trading" chart with no clue what is really going on.
EURUSD 2015-2016 ranging 2 years:
EURUSD 2014 violence some may remember:
Day gamblers looking for "10 pips" that hold bags were happy to go through a 3500 pips loss. Still has not recovered.
I can only imagine the incredible pain loss averse gamblers must have gone through.
The pain not only never ends but it just keeps getting worse and worse and worse.
Just no chance to breathe, only unbearable pain.
Well that's interesting, why am I licking my lips?
EURUSD in 2012-2013 does not look very fun:
EURUSD 2011 downtrend
Hey, starting to see some recurrent things here...
EURUSD 2010 uptrend
Backtesting tip: Doing it while playing a turn based game (alt tab between turns), or watching something that requires little attention, working out (between sets), "afk farm" games too...
No one lasts with "motivation", we all have to find tricks.
EURUSD 2010 downtrend
And before that, we go to the 2000s era where FX was popular with hedge funds and trends lasted more than 1 year.
2008-2013 saw most FX funds disappear.
Another tip: Maybe fundamentals can help predict when a trend will last, and avoid failing on this sad 3 impulses downtrend.
It worked for the Yen a few years ago when the BOJ almost literally told traders "Hey if you short our currency we will give you money".
And another tip: Eyeball backtesting. Have an idea? Want to know if it is worth digging in?
Well don't just go full fanatical try hard! Do not spend hours and hours writing every detail in excel.
Eyeball it with approximate numbers. Takes seconds.
Then 2 choices appear:
- Onto something ===> Go for the details
- Nah it's nothing ===> Congratulation you did not waste tons of time on nothing (small time loss)
Limiting losses, it's also valid with your time.
How about I go look at the GBPUSD in the 80s ey?
GBPUSD downtrend in 1980-1981
Aaaaaaaaaaand same story as usual ;)
Repeat this 10 times, for a total of about 100 excel lines and ~25 trends.
Then write some rules, and go backtest them on other charts.
Because yes, the major currency pairs (USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD, CHF, NZD, CNH, MXN, SEK) more or less work the same, but don't take my word for it.
Choices appear. Does the aspiring money manager want to only go for 3 impulses? And then miss all the big winners?
Does he want to sacrifice winrate for bigger reward to risk ratios? Does he want a higher winrate (noob).
Sometimes there are 5 impulses, does he (or she) go for 5? Or consider it is worth it to give up some winners?
Weak hands or strong hands once in a trending winner? Most people have weak hands with winners but doesn't mean one has to absolutely ALWAYS hold.
Holding all the time and letting it retrace hard would probably be a mistake.
The noob that took the time (really it would barely take a few days of honest work) could already get started.
I said get started, I don't know if it would make money. Maybe?
Clearly 2R is a beginner thing. What if you could get 38% winrate with 2R and 22% winrate with 4R!
Clearly worth it, but as always the majority of people are loss averse and choose the bad choice, trading is just not for them.
One has to some stats, have a good working memory for many reasons, be able handle numbers like "I3 - .6 - Fast - EURUSD" (2 variables 2 constants).
If someone cannot quickly juggle with numbers this is the wrong job. The variance is important for example, if an average pullback is .5 but 45% are in the .25-.45 range, and 45% in the > .8 range, here there are 2 groups to separate. Obviously here we would want to only go for the .25-.45 range, get a 4 or 5 or even greater reward to risk, let losers chase high winrate with gigantic stops. If 30% of the time the price bottoms in a .2 range and extends 1 at least, here that's a 5 risk to reward on double the breakeven winrate.
Then what happens to the 70% who cares? A few bottom further away, a few turn into a new opposite trend, a few go sideways, they all stink. All for illustrative purposes, but it's typically what happens. I don't really know.
What about some ways to increase the winrate, tips, and for those that have a hard time sticking to rules, especially cutting losses and holding winners? Surely, Mr Renev that said motivation did not work knows some tricks to fix all of that.
Find tricks... I know no tricks in fixing gross mediocrity, just follow the rules, non negotiable. It's really simple. Can't do it ==> Wrong job.
Can mediocre make money? I don't know I do not deal with mediocre.
Also we can try to zoom in, but ideally only after having mastered the timeframe presented in this article.
This is what I do, I zoom in.
Let's take my 2020 idea "The pound is a 500 years old ponzi going to zero"
So here is the full chart (1 year):
Go H4 on I3:
Then we can even go to H1:
The target is 450 "pips" which for GBPAUD is in the 1 week ATR range, but better than the average.
In a recent "tips" idea I showed:
- Day gamblers working on a 8 hour ATR realistically need a PF of 1.15 (very best scenario) - 1.25 just to breakeven!
- Swing Gamblers on a 2D ATR need a PF of 1.05 on EURUSD to breakeven.
- And I won't look at scalpers because they can't possibly be serious. I think they are actually trolls.
With this weekly ATR a PF of 1.02-1.03 is the breakeven rate. I am not bleeding much money compared to going long term.
Day gamblers miss out on so much, AND they need an exceptional profit factor, ok not that amazing either (for day gambling it is) JUST TO BREAKEVEN.
All that wasted money, how does it not drive them nuts? They're just throwing away a 20% margin. I just want to pull my eyelids out.
To make money with Forex, many questions will have to be answered, and for this only one way, as we say in France "Va falloir aller au charbon!"
(literally "Have to go to the coal"), means it will take time and effort and actively getting things done.
So many questions: What trends can be eliminated? What trends SHOULD be eliminated? What impulses to go for?
What is the optimal WR & RR compromise area? Do I just go for ABC first? Where to exit? What are solid Support and Resistance?
Do I go for uptrends starting from a multi year low only (to dodge ranges)? How many ATR are each wave? What does 2 extend to?
What other questions could I ask? How do I get inspiration to find more questions?
Do I exploit this strategy enough? Can I optimise it more or should I look for something else?
Hey and each of these questions will direct to more questions.
"When I have this, this, and this, where do I exit".
Like "Where I'm in the presence of a creeper trend", "fast trend", "clean trend"...
Each trend has its own set of questions, all the same I listed, plus a few specific ones.
It is essential to approach the study of markets in general and charts more specifically in manageable chunks.
All while following economic news and checking on charts regularly.
A day that makes sense could be one with 4 hours of backtesting, 4 hours of analysing charts, 4 hours of "fun" watching videos and reading and writing (all about investing), and 4 hours of time to eat and do unrelated stuff.
All of this for 1 simple strategy. Answering these questions is a task to accomplish over years.
10 free trading tipsTip 1- Use statistics to avoid bad setups, and enter and exit at high probability areas
Example: Wanting to join an early trend on a pullback? It probably is a bad idea to enter before 50% retrace.
Elliott rules even say wave 2 typically retraces to 78.6%, so it's probably a good idea to wait for a big retrace before going in.
Of course, and this could be another tip of itself, Elliott never made money investing, so it's best to learn from the charts than him.
Tip 2- Use the daily chart, or more precisely the 6 months to 5 years chart
By studying the charts one quickly learns that price evolves on the "daily chart". By this I don't mean the candles absolutely have to be 1 candle = 1 day, as long as depending on several factors 6 months to 5 years of price data are visible. Typically I go for about 2 years, and clicking on "D" is what looks best. Plus humans are on a 24 hour cycle, so daily candles just makes sense. Some people can't stand noise and just look at moving averages.
Tip 3- It is probably a good idea to not try to join very extended trends on a pullback
When an extended trend finally has a pullback, it's often going to be a big one.
We all heard over and over some numbers such as "1.618". If 90% (totally arbitrary number) of EURUSD trends that make it to 2.618 and pullback end up reversing, and only 1% make it really far, you sure you can get a 1 to 100 risk to reward? Some areas might be best to avoid.
In all competitions champions find all the tricks to make it as easy as possible. That's how one becomes the best.
Not by being a complete idiot that goes straight ahead tries to brute force.
"I die, yes, but with honor!". No no, no honor, you die like an idiot the enemy is laughing at you, and your village will get raped and burned to the ground. People love to be hipsters. I prefer to win, to crush the competition.
Tip 4- You already heard this: Cut losses, hold winners, be disciplined
Are bagholders hipsters, or just weak? Clearly all the "diamond hands" are simply weak cowards that piss themselves at the idea of taking a loss.
I do not want to waste too much time on this one, a very easy way to gain a huge advantage over the competition.
Just careful beginners with huge rewards and tiny stops. Greedy stops won't lead to great profits, but to death by a thousand cuts.
Tip 5- Do not daytrade, day trading is stupid
Ah the day gambling hipsters. "I'll be the one in a hundred that makes it". Even roulette and sports betting have better odds.
And the 1 in 100 that make it, assuming it's not just luck, make PEANUTS. They'd earn more flipping burgers.
As I explained, price action is based on the "daily" chart. Trends last months, they can be divided in smaller moves that last days to weeks.
And the price, as I also explained, reacts around these daily chart swings, and daily chart extensions. Another reason why daygambling is so troll.
And since day gamblers "close at the end of the day" (vomit) you could be right and lose money! You could be wrong and lose money!
So even if they have some edge, they add enormous randomness (and ruin an edge) because there is a time factor we have no control on, they'll close before bed at a completely random price, just because "the day is over". Same concept as the binary option scam that got banned. That's literally gambling!
Oh and when they "close at the end of the day" 🤢 they will be making even less than 15 pips, with spreads still the same size.
Tip 6- For the noobs: Start with something simple that works and conditions will be added over years
I think the best course of action would be to go for the basics, something that is expected to work, going with the trend, not focussing too much on the entry, having a reward better than the risk but not too tight (greedy). And with time improve it.
It's like making muscle. If you stop trying to be a hipster and just do what you are been told (don't daytrade, don't hold losers, don't go against the trend), after the initial learning curve (1-5 years, sorry for the dreamers/gamblers) on year 1 you gain 7.5 kg muscle (7.5% returns), year 2 5 kg muscle, year 3-5 5 kg muscle, year 6-20 maintain, maybe small additional gains. Guys like Bill Hwang have shown someone could be a self-made billionaire making 60% a year, so these numbers are just illustrative. The idea is traders develop over time. All the famous ones really got good after several years, and peaked decades after they started. There are no steroids in trading. Ok I guess there are, those would be insider trading, but this isn't easy to access, and a crime.
Tip 7- Noobs again: use indicators if you want too, but don't waste time trying to look for indicator edges
If you think indicators look good then use them, but don't waste too much time looking for an edge. We'd know if there was one.
Don't be lazy, when starting one probably should spend a little bit of time backtesting indicators, and quickly will find out there is nothing of value, no edge based on the indicator itself. And then they can look for something else with a clear head, without wondering "did I miss something".
Tip 8- Beginners or intermediate traders that are not yet profitable: Don't aim for huge asymmetric risk to reward
You look at charts, there is volatility, in the real or original sense of the word. Trends have plenty of pullbacks, 23.6%, 38.6%, 50%.
You might have noticed those were quite significant pullbacks. Not tiny 5-10% pullbacks. So how does a risk to reward of 1 to 20 or 1 to 10 make sense?
And how is someone not yet experienced, not even profitable, going to pinpoint exact high and top? I know NO ONE that can be that precise.
When George Soros broke the bank of England, he sold at the upper end, and had a large risk to reward. Correct me if I am wrong but he sold for 10 billion, made 1 billion, and said his risk was below 2% (200 million). That was the trade of a lifetime and his reward was 5 times his risk "only".
I think he said his hit rate was below 30%. I doubt he typically takes trades with a risk to reward of 20. Or ever.
Maybe there is an edge out there, with 100 RR, who knows? But I think it is more reasonable to start with something between 1.5 and 3.
Tip 9- Strong trends are the best, pretty obvious but people seem to avoid these
On strong trends retail positions are massively on the wrong side, some sources show the percentage of positions and some show more.
The very few traders that are in the correct side have tiny gains, out of hundreds of thousands of accounts the people going in the correct direction and holding can be counted with 1 hand. Makes me feel very special. 1 in a thousand. Even 1 in 10,000.
It's really simple too.
I was tired of try harding 2 years ago, and I just yolo'd in trends, and it worked out. And last year I repeated it, and it worked again! So I focussed on that, and added a strategy to my arsenal. I call it "breakout" but there's really 2 strategies and one of them is not a breakout at all. I wish I started with this, because it is a real goldmine. Not just the easiest, but most productive too. And I'd build the other strats later. When I started I quickly noticed big patterns that flashed in my eyes, once you see them you cannot unsee them, so I went in that direction, obviously.
If you're onto something do not spit in the soup! But if you have a choice, let's call it that, I encourage everyone to aim in the direction of trend following! It's well worth it. If you want to make money. For those that would rather be hipsters, well, have fun.
Tip 10- Breakouts! Strong trend breakouts! Be patient
And final tip, with breakouts in strong trend, they very very often don't go anywhere. Best way to lose money is to fomo.
I'd rather miss out.
So the trick is to have a condition like this: "It has to go far enough."
Or it can go like this: "I want the price to remain above the previous high", that's not realistic, so it could be "I want 2/3 of the price to be above the previous high, and then to double bottom with the high of the bounce above the previous high", which is more reasonable.
This is all just my personal opinion, I do not offer refunds. And it is all specific to Forex.
Do you own research. With the charts. All praise the charts. Glory to the charts.
How to Determine Market Direction Using Multiple time frameIn this video I try to explain the best way to determine market direction.
Define a uptrend--- Series of higher highs and higher lows
In an uptrend your goal is to buy from a support and form a new higher high
In order for you to buy from a support, your lower timeframe must be in a downtrend
Define a downtrend--- Series of lower highs and lower lows
In an downtrend your goal is to sell from a resistance and form a new lower low
In order for you to sell from a resistance, your lower timeframe must be in an uptrend
Avoid using historical levels to fight market direction
If you can keep these rules, you will always be safe. Few is always more
Thank you and trade safe
When Can I Become a Full Time Trader?One question that constantly comes up, and understandably so is, When Can I Become a Full Time Trader? Being a trader is like running a business. You are the manager / owner / operator of "You, Inc." How much capital does it take to run your business? What's your monthly P&L? How much money do you need to have in "float" in case of emergencies (like, oh, I don't know, a global pandemic that sends the price of everyday items skyrocketing?)
If your goal is to become a full time trader, where trading is your primary source of income and provides you with all of your material needs for now AND the foreseeable future, do you have a PLAN on how to get there? Do you know how much capital you need and / or what rate of return you need from your trading system and / or how many trades on average you need to generate your income target?
Let's figure out how much Monthly income you need. First, take your monthly expenses. Include things like rent or a mortgage, a car payment, utilities, gas expenses for your car, etc. and total them up. Second, take all expenses that might be annual or irregular and put an amortized amount each month into a separate checking account for when they come up.
For instance, HOA fees may be billed semi-annually. You may plan on a vacation every year. You may have to replace a major appliance every 3 years. Factor all those expenses and what it may cost as a monthly savings plan and put them into that account. These expenses would come out of that account without touching your monthly income. For example, it's easier to pay $69/month in expectation you will have to replace your fridge, stove, or set of tires every 3 years than to have to come up with an unexpected $2,500 when the fridge dies on you.
With these initial stats, you know how much you need to make a living trading... just to break even. So, what does the responsible business owner (trader) need to do? DOUBLE that number so you are putting an equal amount in savings (for a rainy day / a down month / or the "nest egg") and factor in taxes, say an additional $35% in the United States - the top tax bracket. This final number is what you should comfortably want to make to consider yourself financially free – not dependent on ANY source of income except for your efforts in trading.
Now, given how much money you want / need to live on, what type of trading performance against what amount of capital do you need to achieve this monthly desired income? How much capital do you have in your trading account? What is the Win Rate of your current trading system? How much money do you earn on each winning trade and how much do you give back to the market on every losing trade? Finally, how many trades on average does your trading system find for you each day given the hours you work your trading business?
Let's assume you have a $20K trading account, and you trade using the 1% Rule of Risk Management and the 3R rule of expectation – your Reward-to-Risk Ratio. Let's also say that your trading system is able to locate two trades per day during the timeframe that you are "working" the markets and your Win Rate is 50%. So, if you you win one trade and lose one trade each day, winning $600 and losing $200, you are netting $400 for the day. Multiply this by 20 (the average number of trading days in a month) and you will have an estimate of what monthly income you can generate from your trading account.
An important question is then, "How many trades might you take per day?" For example, during one backtesting period I found that my trading system, Sabre, generates an average of 11.7 trades per day in the Futures Market on the 1-hour timeframe. If you decided that you would be trading Sabre for four hours per day, say from 5-7 in the morning and 8-10 at night, it would pull up an average of 2 trades per day.
Once you are armed with all this information: Your trading account size, your trading system win rate, your trading hours and trade frequency, you can calculate how much income you may be able to generate from your trading system given that all things go according to plan. And as Hannibal Smith liked to say, "I love it when a plan comes together!"
Once you run the calculations, if you run short of what you would like to earn, you can now determine what action(s) you might want to take to get you closer to your goal in a quicker timeframe. For example, if your win rate is 30% with your current trading system what would it take to get it up to 60%? Do you need to check your psychology? Are you constantly leaving money on the table? Are you fearful of entering trades that you should have logically had no problem getting into? Should you join a trading group that is experiencing a level of success you want to achieve to help you overcome any technical or psychological hurdles?
Mechanically, if your trading system is not giving you the number of trades necessary to reach your income goals, what can you do? Perhaps you can go down a timeframe. Theoretically, if you are finding 2 opportunities per day on the 60 minute timeframe, you may be able to find as many as 8 opportunities per day by going down to the 15 minute timeframe. Maybe it's about capital: If you have a $5,000 account you might find a way to put another $10,000 in there and instead of having a $50/$150 Risk:Reward ratio with a $5,000 account you could have a $150/$450 Risk:Reward ratio with a $15,000 account. One way to grow your account is to never 'withdraw' by keeping all profits until your account reaches the 'critical mass' necessary to generate the required income. That's the beauty of exponential growth!
Additionally, perhaps you can add a second trade strategy to your mix. If you are a Supply-and-Demand trader maybe you can find a breakout strategy to take advantage of additional opportunities. After developing Sabre, my trend-trading strategy, I developed what we call the Clubhaul: a counter-trend strategy. Now I had 2 different strategies, increasing my daily number of opportunities to find successful trades. Having access to multiple trading strategies is like the handyman with three different hammers or multiple sets of screwdrivers: They each do a specific job under specific conditions, and it's not always the case that "one size fits all." What goes for the handyman's toolbox, is also applicable for your trading toolbox.
To get to where you want to go you need to know where you are starting from. As G.I. Joe says, "Knowing is half the battle." So hopefully you can create yourself a spreadsheet and crunch the numbers and you can see (1) where you currently are in your trading journey (how viable is my trading plan, how much capital do I have, what hours will I be working the markets) (2) where you want to be ultimately (how much income do I want to generate on a monthly basis, how much capital do I need to consistently generate that income, and which strategy(ies) will get me there? and (3) what I need to DO to get from where I am to where I want to be.
Trade Well!