Overview of good ideas I had :)☝️Dear traders, no one here has superpowers, and I'm as well just a human. Please take everything with a degree of doubt and critique. I'm just sharing my view and one of the possible scenarios of price action. When I enter I try to predict as little as possible and actually follow what the market is doing, joining the market and not arguing with it or forcing my will. Have good trading, keep a constant flow of self-awareness, and do your best. 🙌
Analysis
The Timeless Abyss of Trading: The Greatest Trap Of All-timeI am here with a unique topic. It is about a psychological trading trap called the cycle of doom. What got me interested in this psychological topic? Well, there are very few articles about it. You can count them on one hand, and more than 90% of traders are losing money.
Most traders find their method of trading. What stops them from becoming profitable traders? Tradingview platform is one of the biggest charting platforms that provide an educational section and editorial peak for traders to sharpen their knowledge related to technical analysis, trading methodology, trading psychology, etc.
As a trader, we are making market memories by improving screen time, practicing technical analysis, analyzing option data(if applicable), and a lot more. Why do we still fall short in applying in real time? What stops us from becoming a profitable trader? Something looks missing out!
I would like to draw your attention to the psychological trap cycle of doom, a topic discussed by only a few traders. Let me be clear, I do believe that this topic is universally applicable!
The cycle of doom is made up of three phases:
The search
The Action
The Blame
"Sun Tzu said Know the enemy and know yourself in a hundred battles you will never be in peril."
In order to exit from the loop of the cycle, we have to understand the parts of the cycle.
1) The Search:
Probably, it's the first phase of the cycle. Just recall your initial stages of trading. You were finding a trading strategy to make money out of the money. You may have asked to friend, watched a YouTube video, read an article on Tradingview, bought a book or course or indicators, or purchased the strategy. At that time, you were entered into the cycle.
Additionally, we should never trade for enjoyment but treat it as a business. The statement does not apply to the initial stages. Trader explores new methods, theories, and systems.
Postulate, Trader A uses X theory to do their day trading for a living, and you were impressed and took it to put your money on it, or you found the method by yourself. The trader will switch his next position after finding a system that is convenient for his trading and trusts that he can take minimal risks to achieve expected returns.
2) The Action:
The Action phase is the second phase of the cycle. Now, you have a trading system that will make your money grow to expected returns. This phase can be super exciting for traders as they believe he has an edge and is most likely a key to opening a present of unrealistic returns.
Issues arise when a trader employs their strategy without supporting evidence, like backtesting results. Your heart may be pounding, and your fingers may be trembling like a child, but it doesn't mean you should directly trade the strategy without checking the results, failure, and performance of the system.
Just five percent of traders actually test a trading system before putting it into action. You might discover that the trading system performs well for a prolonged period. Suddenly, a drawdown appeared! At a certain point, everything may seem bleak. While profits might flow in initially, eventually, the losing trades start to accumulate.
It's a red signal for traders that their trading system is now on oxygen. I don't think traders can trust the system after a big streak of losing traders. You have entered into the blame phase.
3) The Blame:
The Blame is the final stage of the cycle. As we discussed, the trader has lost their trust in his trading system, which was a holy grail for him at the initial stage. The Red portfolio hurts more than a break-up. The trader is not happy with the system as it has wiped out the gain + trading capital, and the trading system is the only cause that affected the profit and wants to remove the system and search for a new strategy.
4) Loop of the cycle:
As can be seen, the trader again finds a new strategy and makes an effort and action on it, then blames the system. The cycle repeats and traps the trader in this way.
How to get out of the cycle?
1. Modification is the only way to survival & Trust the system:
Traders should modify their strategy according to market conditions, instruments, and trading style. Maybe not everything works for everyone. Therefore, traders should do this according to him. For example, I use Elliott wave theory as the first base and price action as a confirmation tool along with different indicators according to the situation. I do modify Elliott and price action as per my observation of price moves and wavelength.
2. Backtesting is the holy grail:
Choosing trading theory also depends on traders' mindset, risk-aptitude, and expected return. Scalpers will never check the PE, P/S, or EV/EBITDA ratio of the firm just because of their duration and risk-reward calculation.
After choosing an appropriate trading strategy, traders should backtest their trading strategy before doing real-market transaction. We have the advantage of backtesting tools, algo, and virtual account, which was not available for pit traders.
3. Risk management:
Already many ideas are available on this topic. The trading system should be giving proper returns as per the taken risk unless it is nothing more than Drilling a well in the desert.
I need more time to write a full idea on the escape of the cycle of doom.
Thank you!
@Money_Dictators
Mastering Impulses and CorrectionsHello,
Successful trading in the stock market requires a comprehensive understanding of market trends and the ability to identify price patterns. One such pattern is the interplay between impulses and corrections. By recognizing these alternating phases, traders can gain valuable insights into potential market movements and make more informed trading choices. In this article, we will explore how to identify impulses and corrections in stocks and leverage this knowledge to guide our trading decisions.
Understanding Impulses and Corrections
Impulses and corrections are two primary components of price movements in the stock market. They represent the cyclical nature of stock prices, characterized by alternating phases of strong trending moves (impulses) and temporary price retracements (corrections). These patterns are largely influenced by the collective behavior of market participants, as supply and demand dynamics drive price action.
Impulses: The Power of Momentum
Impulses are the strong, directional moves that propel stock prices in a particular trend. They typically occur in the direction of the prevailing market sentiment and are characterized by higher volume and strong momentum. Impulses can result from a variety of factors, including positive news, strong earnings reports, or broader market trends.
To identify impulses, traders should look for the following characteristics:
Strong Price Movement: Impulses are marked by significant and sustained price advances or declines. These moves often occur in a relatively short period, indicating a surge of buying or selling pressure.
Volume Expansion : Increasing trading volume during an impulse signifies market participation and validates the strength of the move. Higher volume confirms the presence of eager buyers or sellers, further reinforcing the direction of the trend.
Break of Key Resistance or Support Levels : Impulses often break through important technical levels, such as support or resistance, further establishing the strength of the trend. These breakouts serve as confirmation points for traders.
Corrections: The Breath Before Resuming the Trend
Corrections, also known as retracements or pullbacks, are temporary price reversals that occur within an ongoing trend. They serve as a natural pause or breathing space for the market before resuming the dominant price direction. Corrections are characterized by price pullbacks against the prevailing trend, often retracing a certain percentage of the previous impulse.
To identify corrections, traders should consider the following factors:
Counter-Trend Price Movement : Corrections exhibit price movement in the opposite direction of the prevailing trend. These retracements can be shallow, typically ranging from 25% to 50% of the previous impulse's range.
Decreased Volume : Corrections usually occur on lower trading volume compared to impulses. This decline in volume suggests a temporary reduction in market participation and reinforces the notion of a temporary price reversal.
Support and Resistance Levels : Corrections often find support or encounter resistance at previously established price levels. These levels can act as potential reversal points, creating opportunities for traders to enter or add to positions.
Using Impulses and Corrections in Trading :
Recognizing impulses and corrections can provide valuable guidance for trading decisions. Here are some ways to leverage this knowledge:
Trend Identification:
By observing a sequence of impulses and corrections, traders can identify the prevailing trend. Understanding the broader market direction can help align trades with the momentum and improve the odds of success.
Entry and Exit Points: Impulses provide opportunities for traders to enter positions in the direction of the trend. Once an impulse is identified, traders can look for suitable entry points during corrections, aiming to enter at favorable prices before the next impulse begins.
Risk Management:
Understanding the interplay between impulses and corrections can help traders set appropriate stop-loss levels. Placing stops below significant support levels during corrections can protect against adverse price movements while still allowing the trade to capture potential gains.
Conclusion:
Recognizing and understanding the patterns of impulses and corrections in stock prices is a valuable skill for traders. By identifying these phases, traders can gain insights into market trends, determine entry and exit points, manage risk, and develop effective trading strategies. Incorporating this knowledge into trading decisions can significantly enhance the chances of success in the dynamic world of the stock market.
The above chart clearly shows you the Impulses and corrections on the Sunpharma chart.
Good luck and all the best in your trading!
Financial Planning: An IdeaHello Trader
Today we have to talk about financial knowledge, how important is it to have financial knowledge and whether can it make us financially free.
Let's begin,
Everyone needs money to survive. Financial planning is the process of managing your money wisely to achieve your financial goals. It involves planning your future finances keeping in mind your current situation.
In simple terms, financial planning helps you answer questions like:
How can I save more money?
When can I comfortably retire?
How can I pay my debts?
All these questions are very important if you want to be financially free
* Financial planning helps you identify your long-term and short-term goals, whether it's buying a house, children's education, or retirement so that you don't have to worry about anything.
* An important aspect of financial planning is insurance. It helps protect you and your loved ones from unexpected events like accidents, illnesses, or the loss of a loved one. By getting the right insurance coverage, you can minimize the financial disaster of such situations.
* Investments are also a part of financial planning. It involves putting your money into different types of assets, such as stocks, bonds, or real estate, to grow your wealth over time. Financial planning also involves knowing where to allocate your investments accurately.
Finally, financial planning includes preparing for retirement. It involves estimating how much money you will need in retirement and determining how much you should save each month to reach that goal. Retirement planning ensures that you can enjoy a comfortable and financially secure life after you stop working.
Types of financial planning
1) Tax Planning
Tax planning is the process of arranging your finances in a smart way to pay the least amount of taxes while staying within the rules set by the government. It involves making decisions about when to receive income, how to spend money, and which deductions or credits to take advantage of. The goal is to legally reduce the amount of taxes you have to pay, so you can keep more of your hard-earned money.
Types of Tax planning
Tax planning is a way to reduce the amount of tax you have to pay. But it's not just about that - it also tells you how to make smart decisions with your money to reach your financial goals. By investing in the right things at the right time, you can increase not only the tax but also your wealth. So tax planning is not just about minimizing taxes, it's about making your money work for you.
Following are the various methods of tax planning
(A) Short-term tax planning
In short-term tax planning, individuals or businesses focus on finding legal ways to reduce their tax liability as the end of the fiscal year approaches. It does not require long-term commitments but can still result in significant tax savings.
(B) Long-term tax planning
With long-term tax planning, individuals or businesses create a tax plan at the beginning of the fiscal year and follow it throughout the year. While immediate tax benefits may not be available, this approach can be beneficial in the long run.
(C) Permissive tax planning
Permissive tax planning involves utilizing various provisions within the tax laws of a country, such as deductions, exemptions, contributions, and incentives. For example, in India, there are provisions like Section 80C of the Income Tax Act, 1961, which offer deductions on specific tax-saving investments.
(D) Purposive tax planning
Purposive tax planning involves using tax-saving instruments with a specific purpose in mind. This strategy ensures that you maximize the benefits of your investments. It includes carefully selecting suitable investments, having a plan for replacing assets if necessary, and diversifying business and income assets based on your residency status.
2) insurance planning
If you don't plan properly for insurance, unexpected events in life can leave you financially vulnerable. By insurance planning, you can identify the risks that may affect your life and choose the right insurance policy to protect against those risks. So that you can protect yourself and your family financially in the future.
Let's talk about the benefits of insurance planning
(A) Protection from Unexpected Events
Having a good insurance policy helps you reduce the financial risks associated with things like illness, accidents, or even death. It ensures that you and your family are prepared to face these unexpected challenges without having to give up your quality of life.
(B) Different Types of Insurance Coverage
* There are different types of insurance policies that cover various risks. For example, health insurance plans cover medical emergencies, hospital expenses, medications, and doctor visits.
* Life insurance or personal accident insurance provides coverage in case of premature death.
* Motor insurance protects your vehicles against theft, accidents, and liabilities to third parties.
* Travel insurance policies offer coverage for unexpected events during your trips. By choosing the right combination of policies, you can create a complete financial protection plan for yourself and your family.
(C) Financial Protection
Insurance planning provides financial security by compensating for losses incurred during covered emergencies. It helps you recover financially from unexpected situations and protects your savings.
(D) Tax Benefits
Certain insurance plans also provide tax savings. For example, the premiums you pay for health insurance are eligible for tax deductions under the Income Tax Act. This means you can lower your taxable income by purchasing specific insurance policies.
(E) Peace of Mind
Having a well-planned insurance portfolio gives you peace of mind. You don't have to worry about losing your savings due to unforeseen events. You can also plan for the financial well-being of your family even after your death by using term and life insurance plans.
Insurance planning can be easier if these points are kept in mind
3) Investment planning
* Investment planning is a process that helps you make smart decisions about your money.
* It involves thinking about your goals and figuring out the best ways to use your money to achieve those goals.
* There are various options for investment, such as putting your money in stocks, bonds, or property and earning good profits.
* This planning helps you build a strong financial foundation and make adjustments as needed.
Here I will tell about 7 benefits of investment planning
(A) Building Wealth
Investment plans with life insurance are a reliable way to grow your wealth over time. As an investor, you can choose the plan that best suits your needs based on risk, returns, and the amount you can invest. These plans can provide financial assistance for future expenses like your child's education, their wedding, your retirement, or a pension.
(B) Financial Security
Life insurance policies offer both life coverage and investment options. They take care of your family financially by providing both survival benefits and death benefits. When the policy matures, you receive returns with profits. This ensures long-term financial security for your family. In the unfortunate event of your demise before the maturity period, the insurance company pays the sum assured to your nominee, providing financial protection to your family.
(C) Coverage for Death Risk
Not all investment options offer coverage for the risk of death, but investment plans with life insurance do. These plans include death risk coverage, ensuring that your family's financial needs are taken care of even in your absence. The sum assured is paid to the nominee in the event of your death.
(D)Retirement Savings
You can purchase these investment plans at any stage of life, allowing you to create a retirement corpus. By investing in these plans, you can become financially independent even after retirement.
(E) Flexibility
These investment plans offer flexibility in terms of the amount you can invest and the duration. You can choose what suits your needs and financial planning.
(E) Tax Savings
Investment plans not only provide risk cover and help accumulate wealth, but they also offer tax savings. The premiums and payouts are exempted from tax under sections 80C and 10(10D) of the Indian Tax Act. These plans offer a perfect combination of savings, wealth creation, financial protection, and tax benefits.
(F) Loan Facility
Life insurance investment plans can also act as loan facilitators, depending on the coverage you have, the premiums paid, and your eligibility for the loan amount.
4) Retirement planning
* Retirement planning is the process of preparing for life after you stop working.
* It involves thinking about how much money you will need to live comfortably when you are not earning a regular income.
* Retirement planning tells you how to save and invest your money wisely to have enough funds to support yourself during your retirement years.
* Retirement planning is essential so that you can enjoy a comfortable and worry-free life when you decide to stop working.
Understanding retirement planning
* Retirement planning is the act of preparing for life after employment, which includes not only financial aspects but all areas of one's life.
* Beyond financial considerations, retirement planning includes lifestyle choices, such as how to spend time, where to live, and when to stop working altogether.
* Retirement planning focuses on different stages of life.
* In the early stages of a career, the emphasis is on setting aside sufficient funds for retirement.
* As one approaches mid-career, it may also include establishing specific income or wealth goals and taking the necessary steps to achieve them.
* Thus, retirement planning is necessary for you to lead a comfortable life at the time of retirement.
5) Estate planning
* Estate planning is when you make important decisions about what happens to your money, assets, and liabilities after you pass away or if you become unable to make decisions for yourself.
* This includes things like choosing who will receive your assets, making sure debts and taxes are taken care of, and even deciding who will take care of your children or pets.
* People usually work with an attorney who knows estate law to help them plan.
* Some common steps in estate planning include making an inventory of what you own and owe and checking your bank account.
Process of Estate Planning
* Estate planning is the process of deciding what will happen to a person's assets after they pass away and how their financial affairs will be managed if they become unable to do so themselves. It's important to know that estate planning is not only for wealthy individuals; anyone can and should consider it.
* An estate includes things like houses, cars, investments, artwork, life insurance, pensions, and debts. People have different reasons for estate planning, such as preserving family wealth, providing for their spouse and children, funding education for future generations, or leaving a charitable legacy.
* The first step in estate planning is usually creating a will.
Other important tasks include
* Setting up trust accounts to reduce estate taxes and benefit specific beneficiaries.
* Designating a guardian for dependents who are still alive.
* Choosing an executor to oversee the will's instructions.
* Updating beneficiaries on life insurance policies, IRAs, and 401(k) accounts.
* Making funeral arrangements in advance.
* Making annual gifts to charities or nonprofits to lower the taxable estate.
* Creating a durable power of attorney to handle other assets and investments.
By taking these steps, individuals can ensure that their wishes are followed, their loved ones are provided for, and their assets are distributed as intended.
6) Cash flow planning
* Cash flow planning is all about managing and predicting how money comes into and goes out of someone's or a business's finances. It means keeping track of how much money is earned (income) and how much is spent (expenses) during a specific time, usually every month or year.
* The main goal of cash flow planning is to make sure there's enough money to cover important expenses, meet financial commitments, and achieve money-related objectives. It helps individuals and businesses make smart choices when it comes to spending, saving, and investing their money.
* Basically, cash flow planning involves creating a budget or financial plan that outlines the expected sources of income and estimates of expenses. By analyzing and keeping an eye on cash flow, it becomes possible to spot potential shortages or surpluses and adjust accordingly. This way, people can manage their money better and make informed decisions on how to use their resources effectively.
* When there's a clear understanding of cash flow, individuals and businesses can take proactive steps to ensure they have enough money to cover their needs, save for the future, and handle any unexpected financial challenges that might come up.
* Thus by doing financial planning in this way and by doing this 6-step planning you can become financially free.
Note: The next article is on the life cycle and wealth cycle in which I will tell you what percentage should be invested according to age and income.
I apologize for the grammatical errors.
Thank You!
Money_Dictators
By @Money_Dictators on @TradingView Platform
Learn the 3 TYPES of MARKET ANALYSIS
In the today's post, we will discuss 3 types of analysis of a financial market.
🛠1 - Technical Analysis
Technical analysis focuses on price action, key levels, technical indicators and technical tools for the assessment of a market sentiment.
Pure technician thoroughly believes that the price chart reflects all the news, all the actions of big and small players. With a proper application of technical strategies, technical analysts make predictions and identify trading opportunities.
In the example above, the trader applies price action patterns, candlestick analysis, key levels and 2 technical indicators to make a prediction that the market will drop to a key horizontal support from a solid horizontal resistance.
📰2 - Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysts assess the key factors and related data that drive the value of an asset.
These factors are diverse: it can be geopolitical events, macro and micro economic news, financial statements, etc.
Fundamental traders usually make trading decision and forecasts, relying on fundamental data alone and completely neglecting a chart analysis.
Price action on Gold on a daily time frame could be easily predicted, applying a fundamental analysis.
A bearish trend was driven by FED Interest Rates tightening program,
while a strong bullish rally initiated after escalation of Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
📊🔬 3 - Combination of Technical and Fundamental Analysis
Such traders combine the principles of both Technical and Fundamental approaches.
When they are looking for trading opportunities, they analyze the price chart and make predictions accordingly.
Then, they analyze the current related fundamentals and compare the technical and fundamental biases.
If the outlooks match, one opens a trading position.
In the example above, Gold reached a solid horizontal daily support.
Testing the underlined structure, the price formed a falling wedge pattern and a double bottom, breaking both a horizontal neckline and a resistance of the wedge.
These were 2 significant bullish technical confirmation.
At the same time, the escalation of Israeli-Palestinian conflict left a very bullish fundamental confirmation.
It is an endless debate which method is better.
Each has its own pros and cons.
I strongly believe that one can make money mastering any of those.
Just choose the method that you prefer, study it, practice and one day you will make it.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Roaring 2020s trading-investing economyAs you can see on the presented chart we made current economy started in 1998 with the crash of the LTCM, MFG, Bankruptcy of Russian Federation and BoE. With occasional dumps in liquidity we're heading into new golden era of global finance. Let us introduce you to what we think is the most impotant financal instruments in the world right now. Said instruments is the most liquid financial markets in the world leaving aside rest of the economy we will speak about later. So it would be Standart and Poors which is the most profitable companies in the United States of America, numbers about this field are presented on the top of the chart. Second to this further to the bottom of the presented chart are numbers about gold market, New York Stock Exchange volatility, United States of America 20 year yield, GDP, Labour Inflation, Oil markets, Russian Federation GDP, Russian Federation Moscow Exchange liquidity which is equivalent to quintillion rubles, said exchange volatility level called RVI, Inflation of Labour of the same country. After this goes Passives/Actives of the most expensive venture in the dynamically changing world Federal Reserve. And last but not the least goes 20 year yield of China Republic and Russian Federation. Try to analyse presented chart with your idea of public markets and how they react on the events you see as important or playing a big role in life. Thank you for your attention please read and comment see you in later events. And remember correlation do not present cause effect. We wish you luck in roaring 2020s keep yourself in the peace mood of mind.
Peter Lynch's Timeless Investing Principles
Introduction
Peter Lynch, one of the most celebrated investors of all time, is renowned for his remarkable track record managing the Fidelity Magellan Fund from 1977 to 1990. Under his stewardship, the fund generated average annual returns of approximately 29%, outperforming the S&P 500 by a substantial margin. Lynch's success was not just a stroke of luck; it was the result of a well-thought-out investment philosophy and principles that remain relevant to this day. In this five-page article, we will delve into the core principles that underpin Peter Lynch's approach to investing and explore how these principles can be applied by individual investors seeking to achieve their financial goals.
I. Invest in What You Know
One of the foundational principles of Peter Lynch's investment philosophy is to "invest in what you know." This principle emphasizes the importance of understanding the companies and industries you invest in. Lynch believed that individual investors have a natural advantage over professional fund managers because they can leverage their everyday experiences and knowledge to identify promising investment opportunities.
Lynch often cited examples from his personal life to illustrate this principle. For instance, he famously discovered the potential of the Hanes Corporation when he noticed his wife buying their products. He reasoned that if his family liked the company's products, there was a good chance that others did too. This simple observation led to a highly profitable investment.
II. Long-Term Perspective
Lynch advocates taking a long-term perspective when it comes to investing. He discouraged frequent trading and market-timing, believing that such strategies often led to poor performance and excessive transaction costs. Lynch's approach focused on identifying fundamentally strong companies and holding them for the long haul.
He often remarked, "In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine." This means that in the short term, stock prices can be influenced by emotions and market sentiment, but over the long term, the fundamentals of a company will ultimately determine its stock price.
III. The P/E Ratio
The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is a fundamental metric Lynch frequently employed in his investment analysis. He believed that the P/E ratio could provide valuable insights into a company's valuation. A low P/E ratio might indicate an undervalued stock, while a high P/E ratio could suggest an overvalued one.
However, Lynch cautioned against relying solely on the P/E ratio. He emphasized the importance of considering a company's growth prospects, industry dynamics, and competitive position when evaluating its stock. A low P/E ratio might be justified if a company has strong growth potential.
IV. Diversification and Concentration
Peter Lynch had a nuanced approach to diversification. While he recognized the benefits of spreading risk across different investments, he also believed in concentration when you have high conviction in a particular investment opportunity. This approach is sometimes referred to as "diworsification" – spreading investments too thin, which can dilute returns.
Lynch advocated holding a concentrated portfolio of your best ideas while still maintaining a level of diversification to mitigate risk. He noted that over-diversification could limit potential gains and lead to mediocre performance.
V. Be Patient and Contrarian
Lynch's investment philosophy often aligned with being patient and contrarian. He suggested that investors should not be swayed by short-term market fluctuations or popular trends. Instead, they should have the patience to wait for the market to recognize the value of their investments.
Moreover, Lynch saw value in going against the crowd when necessary. He believed that some of the best investment opportunities could be found in out-of-favor industries or companies that others were avoiding. Contrarian thinking often led him to uncover hidden gems.
VI. Stay Informed and Do Your Homework
Despite his emphasis on simplicity and "investing in what you know," Lynch was a firm advocate of doing thorough research and staying informed. He advised investors to study financial statements, read annual reports, and understand the ins and outs of the companies they invested in.
Furthermore, Lynch recommended paying attention to economic indicators and industry trends. Being well-informed allowed him to make informed investment decisions and identify potential risks and opportunities.
Conclusion
Peter Lynch's principles of investing continue to resonate with both novice and experienced investors. His common-sense approach, emphasis on knowledge and patience, and focus on long-term value have stood the test of time. By adhering to these principles, individual investors can navigate the complex world of finance with confidence and increase their chances of achieving their financial goals. Whether you are a seasoned investor or just starting on your investment journey, Peter Lynch's timeless wisdom provides a solid foundation for success in the world of investing.
Investing vs Trading: A Comparative AnalysisHello, money enthusiasts! Whether you're a Wall Street wolf or a Main Street newbie, today we're diving into the exhilarating world of finance to dissect two popular money-growing strategies - investing and trading. So, sit back, relax, and prepare to soak up some knowledge!
The Basics
Let's kick things off with some simple definitions. Think of investing as adopting a kittens. It requires time, patience, and care, but over the years, the bond strengthens and becomes incredibly rewarding.
On the flip side, trading is like pet-sitting. You look after someone else's pet for a short while, enjoy the perks, and then move on to the next one. It's all about quick interactions and constant change.
Risk & Reward: The Financial Tango
In the world of finance, risk and reward are partners, always moving together. Investing often involves lower risk and lower returns over a long haul. It's a slow waltz where you glide along with the rhythm of the market.
Trading, however, is a fast-paced salsa. It's high risk, high reward, and you need to keep up with the tempo. The possibility of quick gains is exciting, but remember - one misstep can lead to a financial tumble.
Time Commitment: Marathon vs Sprint
Investing is like running a marathon. Once you've done your research, picked your stocks (your training plan), and invested, you can pace yourself and wait for the finish line.
Trading, in contrast, is a series of sprints. It demands constant attention, quick decisions, and the stamina to keep going. You need to be on your toes, ready to sprint when the starting gun fires.
Skills & Knowledge: Driving vs Racing
Investing generally requires a basic understanding of a company’s fundamentals, kind of like driving a car. You know the basics, you follow the rules, and you get to your destination safely.
Trading, however, is like racing. It requires an in-depth understanding of market trends, technical analysis, and financial charts. You need to know your vehicle inside out, anticipate the moves of other drivers, and make split-second decisions.
Emotion & Stress: Meditation vs Thrill Ride
Investing is akin to a meditation session. It's slow, steady, and although it might seem boring at times, it's beneficial in the long run.
Trading, on the other hand, is like a thrill ride. It's exhilarating, nerve-wracking, and requires a strong stomach. But for some, the thrill is part of the appeal!
In conclusion, whether you choose to invest or trade depends on your risk appetite, time commitment, knowledge level, and how much excitement you want from your money. Neither approach is inherently better—they're just different strategies to reach financial growth.
So, are you the patient pet owner, nurturing your investment over time? Or are you the dynamic pet-sitter, always looking for the next opportunity? Whichever path you choose, remember to stay informed, stay calm, and may your financial journey be prosperous. Happy money managing!
The Power of Candlestick Encapsulation in Trading: Utilizing theTrading is a captivating and intricate field that demands a profound understanding of financial markets, investment strategies, and technical analysis. Among the many techniques employed by traders, candlestick encapsulation is one that can prove to be particularly powerful. In this article, we will explore the concept of candlestick encapsulation and how one can harness the 50% of the first candle's length as a potential support or resistance level.
What Is Candlestick Encapsulation?
Candlestick encapsulation, also known as an "inside bar," is a price pattern that occurs when a subsequent candle develops within the boundaries of the preceding candle. In other words, the price range of the second candle is entirely contained within the range of the first candle. This pattern can appear on any time frame, from daily candles to one-minute candles, and is often used by traders to identify potential turning points in the markets.
How to Identify Candlestick Encapsulation?
To identify candlestick encapsulation, follow these steps:
* Examine the First Candle: Begin by observing the most recent candle on your price chart. This will be the "mother candle."
* Take a Look at the Next Candle: Next, examine the candle that follows the mother candle. This candle should have a price range that is completely contained within the range of the mother candle.
* Confirm the Pattern: To confirm candlestick encapsulation, the second candle must close within the range of the mother candle.
Using the 50% Level as Support or Resistance
Now that we understand what candlestick encapsulation is, let's explore how to leverage the 50% of the first candle's length as a potential support or resistance level.
* Calculate the Length of the First Candle: Measure the length of the mother candle from its high to its low.
* Calculate 50% of the Length: Now, calculate exactly 50% of this length. You can do this by adding the high and low of the mother candle and dividing by two.
* Draw the Horizontal Line: Plot a horizontal line on your price chart at the level you calculated as 50% of the mother candle's length.
* Observe Price Behavior: This horizontal line represents a potential support level if prices move below it or a resistance level if prices stay above it. Observe how prices react when they reach this level.
Interpretation and Strategy
The use of the 50% level of the mother candle's length as support or resistance can be applied in various trading strategies. Here are some important considerations:
* Breakout Strategy: If prices break above the 50% level, there may be a potential bullish breakout. In this case, traders may look for buying opportunities.
* Pullback Strategy: If prices return to the 50% level after a breakout, this could be an opportunity to enter positions in the direction of the prevailing trend.
* Stop Loss and Take Profit: Traders can use the 50% level as a reference point to place stop-loss or take-profit orders.
Conclusion
Candlestick encapsulation is a technical analysis technique that can provide valuable insights into potential turning points in financial markets. By using the 50% level of the mother candle's length as support or resistance, traders can add another tool to their trading toolkit for making informed trading decisions. However, it is important to remember that no technique is foolproof, and trading always involves a degree of risk. Therefore, it is advisable to combine this technique with careful risk management and a solid understanding of financial markets.
The VIX: A Measure of Market FearThe VIX, or Volatility Index, is a measure of the expected volatility of the S&P 500 index over the next 30 days. It is calculated using the prices of options on the S&P 500 index. A higher VIX indicates that market participants are expecting more volatility in the future, while a lower VIX indicates that they are expecting less volatility.
The VIX is an important tool for investors because it can help them understand how risky the stock market is. A high VIX indicates that the market is expected to be volatile, which means that there is a greater chance of large price swings. This can make investing more risky, but it can also create opportunities for profit.
The VIX is also correlated with the S&P 500 index. This means that the VIX tends to move in the opposite direction of the S&P 500. When the S&P 500 falls, the VIX tends to rise, and when the S&P 500 rises, the VIX tends to fall. This correlation is not perfect, but it is strong enough to be useful for investors.
The VIX can be used in a variety of ways by investors. Some investors use the VIX to assess the risk of their portfolios. Others use the VIX to trade volatility, either by buying or selling VIX futures contracts. Still others use the VIX to hedge against risk in other assets.
The VIX is a complex and volatile asset, but it can be a valuable tool for investors who understand how to use it.
Here are some additional things to keep in mind about the VIX:
The VIX is not a direct measure of the volatility of the stock market. It is a measure of the expected volatility, which means that it is based on the opinions of market participants.
The VIX can be affected by a variety of factors, including economic news, political events, and natural disasters.
The VIX is not always accurate. It can sometimes overshoot or undershoot the actual volatility of the stock market.
Despite its limitations, the VIX is a valuable tool for investors. It can help investors understand the risk of the stock market and make informed investment decisions.
I hope this post is helpful.
This analysis represents my thoughts at the date it is posted.
This analysis does not represent professional and/or financial advice.
You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content found on this profile before making any decisions based on such information.
Mechanical Consistency Weekly Review 5; +9% Return.TL;DR
Total Profit of approximately $900 (around +9%) for the 2nd week of August 2023.
Total 9 trades, 8 wins & 1 loss.
1-hour Timeframe, Oanda, XAUUSD(Gold), $10,000 Capital, $200/ 2% per trade.
Mechanical Consistency Trading Strategy; Purely rule-based strategy, zero guesswork, zero analysis.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. The content for this article is purely for educational/research purposes only and is merely based on my personal opinions.
Please note: There will be affiliate links in this article. But it will only benefit both of us. If you do not wish to participate under my affiliate links, please feel free to Google them separately. Cheers!
We had a beautiful trading week for 2nd week of August. Most of my predetermined parameters got triggered and reached my take profit without much drawdown. Let’s break it down.
Monday (14 August 2023)
I encountered my first loss of the week when the initial mean reversion trade didn’t go as planned. The price swiftly plummeted, triggering my stop loss and prompting me to initiate my second mean reversion trade. Fortunately, I managed to bounce back and secure some profit from take profit 1 before the price continued its downward trend.
Tuesday (15 August 2023)
My daily bias, determined by the 21 EMA, indicated a clear downtrend. I executed both trades flawlessly. The first mean reversion trade unfolded precisely as anticipated, allowing me to capture profits at each stage. The second trade, a retracement play, experienced an immediate reversal shortly after entry, with almost no drawdown. It was the ideal trade setup I had been hoping for!
Wednesday (16 August 2023)
The daily bias continued to favor a downtrend. While Tuesday’s trade remained open, my parameters signaled another retracement trade, and both trades successfully reached all of my predetermined take profit levels. As the trading day neared its end, I was triggered into a mean reversion trade at 127%. Fortunately, I managed to secure some profits before ultimately closing the trade on Thursday.
Thursday (17 August 2023)
The daily bias remained in a downtrend. Most of my attention on Wednesday was dedicated to managing the ongoing trade from that day. However, once I closed out the Wednesday trade, I was able to initiate a standard retracement trade that successfully reached both of my pre-set take profit levels, resulting in a substantial profit. Later that same night, my mean reversion trade was triggered, and I had to manage it until Friday.
Friday (18 August 2023)
Even though market sentiment began to show signs of shifting towards the upside, my daily bias remained in a downtrend. I successfully closed my Thursday’s trade with a profit and promptly initiated a standard retracement trade, reaching the first take profit level and securing a breakeven point at the entry price, just before the market began its upward momentum.
Endnote
As I navigated a market with a prevailing downtrend, while also observing hints of a shift in market sentiment towards the upside. Despite these challenges, I executed my trades with precision, closing out profitable positions and making the most of favourable retracement opportunities without any market analysis + zero guesswork, purely using a mechanical system that I developed, backtest and forward testing. Same strategy, same system day in and day out!
As a full-time working individual, I do not have the time to constantly monitor the charts and look for the "perfect" trading opportunity. This is why I adopted the mechanical trading strategy to earn extra money.
This approach eliminates the need for extensive technical or fundamental analysis and removes any guesswork. It is a 100% Mechanical rule-based strategy, ensuring disciplined and consistent decision-making.
Here's how it works: Immediately after the 1st-hour candlestick closes either below or above the 21 EMA (Exponential Moving Average), you place precise Buy/Sell limit orders. Once all parameters are meticulously set, you can confidently attend to your daily routine, including your day job, while entrusting the market to dictate the trades.
If you want to learn my strategy, please visit my blogging site, link in BIO. Thank you!
TRADING IS THE MOST REWARDING BUSINESS WORLDWIDETRADING IS THE MOST REWARDING BUSINESS IN THE WORLD.
But 99% of traders don't know how to win.
6 STEPS TO BECOME A TRADING SNIPER:
1. Develop A+ setups
- Focus on low risk, high reward
- Don't worry if you need time to execute
- You don't need to catch every market's movement to be successful
One setup is enough to kill in the trading arena.
2. Focus on A+ setups
- Execute like a machine when you spot an A+ setup
- Forget anything else. Don't take stupid trades just because you don't have opportunities
Trust your setups. Trust your plans. Trust your execution.
3. Control your emotions
Waiting is the hardest trading skill:
- You need patience to wait for your setups
- You need discipline to execute your setups
- You need confidence to win with your setups
Traders, like snipers, wait 99% of the time.
4. Know your system like a brother
- Know the details. RR, WR, strengths and weaknesses.
- Know what to expect: "If x happens, I'll do this. If y happens, I'll do this."
Always have a plan.
5. Aim for 1%
If average traders practice 1 hour per day, start practicing 2 hours per day.
If average traders review trades once a week, start reviewing trades every day.
If average traders never shapes minds, start meditating every day.
To be the 1%, do what the 99% don't do.
6. Become a trading sniper
- Focus on A+ setups
- Control your emotions
- Always have a plan
Shape your weapons. Shape your trading.
If you enjoyed this insightful post, please share with your friends and invite them to join us. Thanks
Master the Basics (Understand Support and Resistance in Trading)Hello, TradingView community!
One of the foundational elements of technical analysis is the concept of 'Support and Resistance'. Whether you're trading BTCUSD, Gold, or any other instrument, these principles remain consistent. Let's dive in!
1. What are Support and Resistance?
Support is a price level where a downtrend can be expected to pause due to a concentration of demand (buyers). Think of it as the floor where the price seems to bounce off.
Resistance is where a trend can pause or stop due to selling interest. Imagine it as the ceiling where the price seems to hit and then starts declining.
2. The Power of "Why" Over "What"
Understanding why these levels exist is more crucial than just spotting them. They're formed due to:
Historical turning points (past highs and lows).
Psychological levels (e.g., round numbers like $10,000 for BTC).
Moving averages or other technical indicators.
3. Mixing It Up with Different Timeframes
Different timeframes can show different support and resistance levels. While a daily chart might show a clear resistance, a monthly chart might still be in a strong uptrend. It's essential to mix up your timeframes to get a holistic view.
4. Presentation is Crucial
When marking these levels on your chart:
Use horizontal lines or zones to represent areas of interest.
Annotate and explain why you believe a particular level is crucial.
Keep your charts clean and easy to understand.
5. Quality Over Quantity
It's tempting to mark every minor level you see, but focus on the most evident and historically respected levels. Too many lines can clutter your chart and lead to analysis paralysis.
6. Stay Truthful and Updated
Markets evolve, and so do support and resistance levels. Be ready to adjust your lines as the market provides more data. And always be truthful – if a level breaks, it's an opportunity to learn, not to hide.
In Conclusion
Support and Resistance are more than just lines on a chart. They represent the collective psychology of the market, areas where traders have historical memories, and points of decision-making. As you analyze popular instruments like BTCUSD or Gold, remember these principles and use them to enhance your trading decisions.
Remember, in trading and in sharing, honesty and continuous learning are key. Let's grow together, one trade at a time.
Happy trading and charting! 📈🌟
🐼Mastering the Art of Forex Trading Strategies🐼
Key words:
,,,,, , ,,
🐼The world of forex trading is as fascinating as it is dynamic. To thrive in this fast-paced market, developing a robust trading strategy is paramount. In this article, we will explore the key points that can help you identify and refine your trading strategy, bringing you closer to success.
🐼Identifying Market Trends:
Understanding market trends is crucial in making informed trading decisions. By analyzing moving averages, trend lines, and price patterns, you can identify the prevailing market direction and potential opportunities.
🐼Implementing Effective Risk Management Strategies:
Mitigating risks is a vital aspect of any trading strategy. Set appropriate stop-loss orders, determine suitable position sizes, and manage leverage wisely to protect your capital and minimize exposure to potential losses.
🐼Incorporating Technical Analysis Tools:
Technical analysis tools provide valuable insights into market behavior. Use oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to identify overbought or oversold conditions, Fibonacci retracement levels to pinpoint support and resistance levels, and Bollinger Bands to gauge market volatility.
🐼Staying Informed about Market News and Economic Calendar Events:
Keeping up with the latest news and economic events can provide valuable context for your trading strategy. Monitor economic indicators such as GDP releases, central bank meetings, and geopolitical events to understand potential impacts on currency movements.
🐼Conclusion:
Crafting a successful forex trading strategy requires a comprehensive approach that covers market trend identification, risk management, technical analysis, and staying informed about market news. By incorporating these key points into your strategy, you can enhance your trading skills and increase your chances of long-term success in the forex market. Remember, forex trading is a continuous learning journey, so adapt and evolve your strategy as the market evolves.
Please cheer me up with a like and a nice comment😸❤️
Please, support my work with like and comment!
Love you, my dear followers!👩💻🌸
Finding Bottoms Using Monthly Inside Candles: SNOWThis past year, I shared many bottoms on names on my weekly WLs based on bottoming consolidation structures, mentioning a specific strategy as a reasoning for the trades. Aside from understanding price action, I used a simple method:
Monthly inside candles/bars.
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What is an inside candle/bar?
Inside candles trade “inside” its previous candle. The previous candle’s high and low can be used as resistance and support, respectively. Your trade execution comes on a break & hold above/below the range.
Here are a few examples of this:
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NYSE:SNOW
This has traded within it’s May ‘22 inside range for over a year. This has been one of my top watches earlier this year.
The range provides a macro resistance/support of $187.23 and $112.10, respectively. These levels can now be used as targets for your trades.
How do I execute on this?
Zoom into LTFs to find swing opportunities. In my 1/23/23 weekly watchlist, I provided NYSE:SNOW based on a previous bull div + key support/demand being held (red box).
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All swing contracts provided on the WL printed, while NYSE:SNOW saw a massive upside move from $140 into $178.70 within 2 weeks.
You’ll also notice my invalidation for this was $133.10 while the low was $134.34. This invalidation was based on a breakdown of the range low.
Now once again, on 3/31/2023 I mentioned NYSE:SNOW as a potential high R:R trade.
Based on the exact same reasoning as my January WL.
Once again, NYSE:SNOW was able to hold its demand zone with a macro target of the monthly inside candle resistance.
NYSE:SNOW
The same exact entry & same exact analysis now provided a recent move into my $187.23 target. First move providing a 33% move, second providing a 42% move.
This is how you take advantage of macro inside ranges (specifically monthly candles in these examples).
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Cryptocurrencies and Market Psychology (long Review)How do we determine whether the Cryptomarket will rise or fall, at what point of the trend?
I will share my past experiences, thoughts and information I have compiled and evaluate the subject in terms of market psychology.
While explaining these as much as I can, I will make use of a lot of data and resources. Roughly speaking, market psychology is the whole of the phenomena that we feel emotionally in the face of the movements experienced and enable us to make decisions in line with them.
In other words, it is what we feel in response to price movements. Hence the enthusiasm we feel in response to rising prices in the market and the anger we feel in response to falling prices and losses. Crowds, masses, groups, whatever you call them, act on emotions and impulses.
They have a common collective behaviour, separate and distinct from what they feel individually. This is whatever the direction of the market is. Except for exceptions and a certain minority, it is not possible for investors to get rid of this and think differently.
You can sense this both from yourself and from your surroundings. When the markets are at their peak, investors are very happy, they invite everyone to join them in this happiness, their faces are smiling, and they believe that they will earn even more in time.
''After an event is repeated two or three times in a row, the "arterior cingulate" and "nucleus accumbens" parts of the human brain automatically expect it to be repeated. if it is repeated, a natural chemical "dopamine" is released and your brain is covered with a soft happiness.
So when a stock goes up several times in a row, you expect it to continue, and your brain chemistry changes as the stock goes up, making you feel very happy, so you become addicted to your predictions.
But when stocks fall, the resulting monetary losses activate the "amygdala" part of your brain - the part of the brain that drives fear and anxiety and activates the famous "fight or flight" response that occurs in all cornered animals.
Just as you can't stop your heart rate from rising when a fire alarm goes off, and you can't stop running backwards when a snake crosses your walkway, you can't stop being scared when stock prices fall.''
behavioural economics
after an event is repeated two or three times in a row, the "arterior cingulate" and "nucleus accumbens" parts of the human brain automatically expect it to repeat. if it repeats, it is a natural person.
This period of making easy and fast money makes people feel very good. People think that they are very successful and that this will continue. But this is an illusion.
The reason why the masses make big and fast money during this period is not their own success, but because the market allows it. The end of these events is usually full of bitter experiences.
The 2001 nasdaq crisis, the 2008 crisis, the cryptocurrencies in the last months of 2017, the 2021 bitcoin rally, and the current Turkey's stock are examples of this. Of course, before evaluating these, it is necessary to know what the stock market is, who wins, what is its real face.
One of the biggest misconceptions about the stock market is that the new entrant or the less experienced person makes the evaluation only within the period he entered. This is a mistake, what should be done is to analyse the relevant market with its entire history.
You've heard the saying, "It's increased 30 times in 2 years, if it goes another 10 times from here. Probably not. This 10 times more thought has been formed in line with the above-mentioned and is not rational. ''If we had bought that coin or stock in time, we were rich now.''
This phrase is also very familiar.
Those who invest uninformedly with the discourses of others, people who think that they are distributed free of charge on the stock exchange, crypto, those who think it is a place of easy fast money folding are always in the last link of the chain and are doomed to lose.
What has invited these people to the stock market recently is the enthusiasm experienced in the markets. Think about the motivation of people jumping from the top of the shares. It's going up, so let me get in and win.
From Daniel Kahneman's book Thinking fast and slow:
''People have the illusion that they are 'making accurate predictions'.'' One of the relevant chapters is below:
"So the success of a buy-sell is not due to skill, but to luck. And even when they are presented with evidence of this fact, they ignore it and continue to live the same way.
The rest of the story is even more interesting.
Algorithms that use only 2 parameters in predictions that largely depend on luck are more successful against people who are fed with more parameters/information.
Because human thoughts vary too much according to their body chemistry,
and as they are fed with more information, their self-confidence and therefore the risks they take increase and they lose more easily.
That means this,
For example, when betting between teams x-y, a simple algorithm that calculates the probability of team x winning based on x's score in the last 5 matches and the score in the last 5 seasons against team y,
In the long run, it is more successful than a person who knows these two pieces of information and the number of injuries, the weather, the number of fans and who the referee is in that match.
Therefore, algorithms using Markov chains make money, while amateurs who are influenced by the sunny weather and make more optimistic choices lose money all the time. Another conclusion to be drawn:
Machines are more successful with less information. This makes them superior to humans. Humans are still incapable of comprehending - accepting - even the statistical facts that are shown to them. we are still prisoners of the illusions that our minds play on us.''
People are psychologically influenced by their environment. Explanation: when the stock market was at 1000 points, no one was interested, but now everyone has the desire to become an investor. The same goes for bitcoin.
People who I could not convince to buy in the $ 3000-5000 USD range started to ask if it would go between 50-69k USD.
The same people now think that bitcoin should never be bought at 16 thousand.
All these are not calculated thoughts, they are purely impulsive behaviours. The result of these behaviours is to lose.
As long as people and markets exist, these cycles will always continue. There will always be new winners and losers. This is the purpose of the stock market.
Now, what are the above-mentioned things useful for us? With all this information, we are trying to find out where we are in the market relative to the peak and when we should exit. In other words, when to buy and when to sell, to find the time to sell.
When does the bear market (bear period) start? It starts 1 candle after the peak candle. It is the best selling place. That is, the peak.
We use technical analysis, the internal dynamics of the market and the psychology of this market to identify the peak areas (i.e. the best selling points).
Remember, we are not trying to analyse point by point. We are just trying to more or less predict the zones and maximise our own profits. Trying to find peaks and troughs is unnecessary and foolish.
Buying at average cost and selling at average cost will give you the most effortless profit.
Some wrong moves and behaviour patterns that prevent winning:
-Rushing to win.
-Not having information about the market, not learning.
-Being hopeless and negative due to constant losing (not looking objectively).
-Looking for back doors, trying to pull the gain forward (emotional or sentimental trade, or margin)
-Constantly listening to others without doing enough research, losing and blaming them for mistakes,
-Excessive enthusiasm at the top, excessive fear and anger at the bottom.
Those who follow the whole market only news-oriented.
These can multiply even more. People with these behaviour patterns cannot make money from the market.
You have heard it everywhere: "The stock market is a means of transferring money from impatient people to patient people". You will realise the truth of this saying as your experience increases.
Of course, this alone is not enough, there are many factors such as the right timing, the right stock coin selection, the moves you will make in the uptrend. But one of the basic disciplines you need to have is patience.
Let's go back to psychology and emotion. The masses in the stock market (small investors); are guided and manipulated through emotions. In other words, it is to get your consent on an action that you will not do and to make you take that action.
Manipulation is to persuade you for a transaction that is to your detriment. Through various methods, the money in the hands of small investors is collected in the hands of large investors, capital groups, new rich people. In other words, wealth transfer takes place.
Thanks to many stock exchanges, commodities, cryptos, parity in the world, these wealth transfers are taking place at any moment.
Examine all world markets from past to present, it will be more understandable.
Why am I telling so many negative things? Because in order to win the game, we need to know what the game is, what the rules are. You can get away from the news, fuds, psychological attrition movements, manipulations, knowing the rules of the game.
It's a kind of self-protection. Once you lose, it's hard to overcome the psychology of it. Emotions come into play. You can be a prisoner of ambition and anger. So you can know these and try not to lose from the beginning or try to get out with less damage.
The stock market is an environment where the right information is very valuable, because we come across the most information pollution, ignorant comments, and directive content on the stock market. Even twitter alone is enough for this hollow content.
I mentioned the part about the peaks. Enough of this negative information. I apologise that the topics may be a bit intertwined. If we come to the bottom points, the opposite of these are experienced. I have talked about them at length before, they can be read.
Let me make a few recommendations. Choose the people you care about carefully. No one has a magic wand or secret information that will make you 100x. Stay away from dishonest people, ignore duplicate scam accounts.
There are plenty of paid and unpaid trainings (stock market, crypto) on the internet, spend time on them. Browse books written about the stock market. Try to fill yourself with knowledge. On fundamental and technical analysis, investor psychology,
Try to learn about behavioural economics (economics), about the basics of the stock market. Don't depend on anyone, but try to get information from everyone.
Also, get to know a little bit about what you are investing in. Do not jump in with gas, with a moment of excitement, just because someone said so. Give importance to past experiences. A lot of experience is important in the stock market.
Think medium and long term, not short term.
It is not important to earn in a month in a week. It is important to be able to earn and protect it in a year or two years. Consider it as investment and accumulation, not gambling.
What needs to be done to win is plain and simple, what is difficult is to apply them.
Benefits of studying Price Action in groups of currenciesEach week, we traders analyze a few currency pairs for possible trading opportunities. I want to draw your attention to also look at the entire group of corelating pairs i.e., all USD, all Euro, all JPY pairs and so on. To illustrate this, let us take a look at some JPY pairs.
The following are some advantages of doing this type of analysis:
1) If you are bullish on a pair and can see that all or most of the JPY pairs are also bullish, it provides validation and higher level of confidence in your trade idea.
2) You can then study price action on all the pairs and do your technical analysis to find the pair(s) that point to the higher probability of success.
3) As you see from the charts I have posted, price action is similar but not identical in all cases. You can see pairs in early stage of a bullish move while in others it seems that the bullish mode has set in already. However, all pairs are currently consolidating and trading opportunities after a breakout/retest will be available in many of these.
4) This comparison of a few pairs also provides an opportunity to look at some fundamentals and recent news releases to find the best currency to pair with JPY based on the counter currency’s strength/weakness.
5) You also get the possibility to spread your risk in a few pairs instead of just one. While you must stay within the risk/money management parameters you have set for yourself in your trading plan, having multiple but smaller positions in 2 or more pairs, creates a kind of hedging that can be beneficial.
Nothing is 100% in trading, so as always, use sound money and risk management and stay patient in all your trades. If you like my content, please give it a “thumbs up” and follow me to get even more.
The Limits of Fundamental Analysis: An In-Depth PerspectiveFundamental analysis serves as a comprehensive approach to evaluating securities, aiming to assess their intrinsic value by examining the underlying factors that shape their worth. This method involves a meticulous analysis of qualitative and quantitative aspects, enabling an assessment of a company's financial well-being, performance, and future prospects. By diving into financial statements, gathering relevant company information, conducting qualitative and quantitative analysis, performing forecasting, and utilizing valuation techniques, fundamental analysis empowers investors to make well-informed decisions regarding the long-term potential of a security.
Undoubtedly, fundamental analysis provides valuable insights and a solid foundation for investment decision-making. However, it is crucial to acknowledge the limitations inherent in this approach and the necessity of adopting a holistic perspective when making investment decisions. While fundamental analysis offers a comprehensive understanding of a company's fundamentals, it may not account for short-term market fluctuations, investor sentiment, or external macroeconomic factors that can significantly impact the performance of a security. Therefore, combining fundamental analysis with other methodologies, such as technical analysis or considering market trends, can provide a more robust and well-rounded approach to investment decision-making. By recognizing the strengths and limitations of fundamental analysis and incorporating it into a broader framework, investors can strive to enhance their chances of making sound investment choices that align with their financial goals and risk tolerance.
Knowing How and Why Fundamental Analysis Works
Fundamental analysis is a meticulous approach to evaluating securities, such as stocks or bonds, by examining the underlying factors that impact their intrinsic value. This method involves a comprehensive analysis of both qualitative and quantitative factors to assess the financial health, performance, and future prospects of a company or investment.
The process of fundamental analysis typically includes several key steps. It begins with analyzing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, to gain insights into its financial position and performance. Gathering relevant company information, such as details about the management team, business model, competitive advantages, and market share, is also crucial.
Qualitative analysis plays a significant role in fundamental analysis. It involves evaluating industry dynamics, market trends, regulatory factors, and the competitive landscape to understand the broader context in which the company operates. This analysis helps assess the company's positioning and identify potential risks and opportunities.
Quantitative analysis is another vital component of fundamental analysis. It involves examining financial ratios and metrics derived from the company's financial statements. Profitability ratios, liquidity ratios, and valuation ratios provide valuable insights into the company's financial performance, efficiency, and relative valuation.
Forecasting and projections are integral to fundamental analysis. Analysts use historical data, industry trends, and other relevant information to make future projections of the company's revenues, earnings, and cash flows. These forecasts help evaluate the company's growth potential and estimate its intrinsic value.
Valuation is a critical step in fundamental analysis. Analysts use various methods, such as discounted cash flow analysis, price-to-earnings ratios, and price-to-book ratios, to determine the intrinsic value of the company or investment.
Based on the intrinsic value compared to the current market price, fundamental analysts make investment decisions. If the intrinsic value suggests that the investment is undervalued, it may be considered an attractive opportunity. On the other hand, if the intrinsic value is lower than the market price, it may indicate an overvalued investment.
Arguments Against Fundamental Analysis :
Fundamental Analysis Is Outdated
For day traders, the immediate market conditions and price movements take precedence over future stock prices, which is a primary focus for long-term investors. Day traders rely on real-time information and timely data to make quick trading decisions. This is where charts become essential, as they provide up-to-date details on price changes, current stock prices, and moment-to-moment fluctuations.
Fundamental analysis, on the other hand, relies on analyzing company financials and economic indicators, which are often released after a few days or each quarter. The lag between data releases makes fundamental analysis less suitable for day traders who require more immediate insights. Instead of waiting for economic reports and financial statements, day traders rely on chart analysis to identify trade setups and execute their trading strategies. In this context, fundamental analysis may not be as effective for day trading.
Day traders heavily rely on technical analysis techniques, which involve studying charts, patterns, and indicators. These tools allow them to analyze price trends, identify key levels, and determine entry and exit points for their trades. By focusing on real-time data and chart readings, day traders can react swiftly to market movements and implement their trading plans effectively.
It's important to understand that while fundamental analysis may have limited applicability for day trading, it remains a valuable tool for long-term investors who consider a broader range of factors and take a more extended perspective on investment decisions. Each approach serves its purpose depending on the trading style and goals of the investor.
Fundamental Analysis Is Incapable of Predicting Immediate Reactions
The response of the market to fundamental data points, whether they pertain to specific commodities, companies, or the overall economy, can often seem unpredictable. Even when a company's actual earnings exceed analysts' expectations, it does not guarantee that stock prices will always rise.
In some cases, if traders had even higher expectations for the company's earnings, the actual result may be viewed as disappointing, leading to a decrease in the value of the asset. Conversely, if traders had anticipated even worse earnings, even a below-average result could cause the investment's value to increase.
Market reactions to fundamental data are influenced by various factors, including market sentiment, investor expectations, and prevailing economic conditions. These factors create a complex interplay that can cause stock prices to deviate from what might be considered the "expected" response based solely on the fundamental data.
Investors must understand that market reactions are not always straightforward or predictable. Gaining insights into market sentiment and investor expectations, in addition to conducting fundamental analysis, can provide a more comprehensive understanding of potential market movements. Furthermore, implementing risk management practices and adopting a diversified investment approach can help mitigate the impact of unexpected market reactions to fundamental data points.
Without technical analysis, fundamental analysis cannot be completed.
Fundamental analysis and technical analysis are two essential tools for understanding price movements and making informed trading decisions. Relying solely on one approach while ignoring the other would be a mistake. Instead, they should be used together to complement each other and provide a comprehensive understanding of the market.
Fundamental analysis involves evaluating the underlying factors that drive market sentiment and determine the potential direction of prices. It provides insights into the overall health and prospects of the currencies or assets being traded. On the other hand, technical analysis focuses on analyzing historical price data, chart patterns, and indicators to identify optimal entry and exit points.
By combining fundamental and technical analysis, traders gain a more holistic view of the market. Fundamental analysis helps answer the "why" behind price movements, while technical analysis helps determine the "when" to execute trades.
Mastering technical analysis enables traders to spot early warning signs and changes in market sentiment, allowing them to react swiftly. By striking a balance between both approaches, traders can make well-informed decisions and improve their overall trading strategy.
To enhance understanding of both fundamental and technical analysis, it is beneficial to gather materials and insights from various sources. This approach exposes traders to different perspectives and helps them develop a well-rounded knowledge base. Remember, successful trading involves incorporating both fundamental and technical analysis, rather than relying solely on one approach.
Fundamental analysis can't explain why the market went too far.
Fundamental analysis is a valuable tool for understanding the intrinsic value of an asset, but it may not fully account for market overreactions. When day trading, it's essential to be aware of significant price movements that can occur when fundamental news, such as the US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, is released.
During these important releases, the market can react rapidly and sometimes in an exaggerated manner. Positive news initially may create the perception of high employment rates, but subsequent information may reveal little change in unemployment or stagnant wages.
It's important to recognize that market overreactions can happen. While certain economic news releases have a strong impact, their effects on market dynamics may not always be lasting or significant. To navigate these sudden market movements, it's crucial to implement strong money management practices.
Robust money management strategies can help you better handle market overreactions and potential volatility. This includes setting appropriate Stop Loss orders, managing position sizes, and diversifying your portfolio. These practices protect your capital and mitigate the risks associated with market fluctuations caused by overreactions.
While fundamental analysis provides valuable insights into the underlying factors driving market movements, it's important to be aware of the potential for market overreactions and adjust your trading strategies accordingly.
Fundamental Analysis Cannot Predict Supply And Demand
You are correct that fundamental analysis alone may not be sufficient to predict supply and demand dynamics in day trading, particularly in the forex market where currencies are traded in pairs. While fundamental analysis provides insights into the broader economic factors influencing both currencies, it is crucial to consider additional factors that impact supply and demand dynamics.
Market sentiment and overall market dynamics play a significant role in determining the demand and supply of securities. Factors such as investor psychology, market trends, and prevailing market conditions can influence trading volumes and affect price movements beyond fundamental data.
It is important to recognize that events unrelated to fundamental data, such as natural disasters or geopolitical tensions, can have a substantial impact on various financial instruments like bonds, stocks, or commodities. These events can shape market sentiment and have implications for day trading. Some events may have a minimal impact, while others can exert significant influence on market sentiment for a specific period.
To succeed as a day trader, it is essential to consider a wide range of factors beyond fundamental analysis. This includes staying updated on market sentiment, monitoring technical indicators, and being aware of significant events or developments that may affect supply and demand dynamics.
By adopting a comprehensive approach that combines fundamental analysis with an understanding of market sentiment and other relevant factors, you can gain a better understanding of supply and demand dynamics and make more informed trading decisions.
Should You Use Fundamental Analysis?
Deciding whether to incorporate fundamental analysis into your investment strategy depends on several factors, including your investment goals, risk tolerance, time horizon, and trading style. While fundamental analysis offers valuable insights into a security's intrinsic value and long-term prospects, it is not the only approach to consider. Here are some key considerations to help you determine if fundamental analysis is suitable for you:
1 ) Long-Term Investment Goals: If you have a long-term investment horizon and aim to build a portfolio of fundamentally strong companies, fundamental analysis can be beneficial. By evaluating financial statements, industry dynamics, and company information, you can make informed decisions aligned with your long-term investment goals.
2) Value Investing: If you are a value investor, fundamental analysis is particularly relevant. By examining a company's financial health, earnings potential, and valuation, you can identify stocks that are trading below their intrinsic value, offering potential for long-term appreciation.
3 ) Fundamental-Focused Trading Strategy: For investors who employ a fundamental-focused trading strategy, fundamental analysis is crucial. This approach involves using fundamental factors to identify short-term trading opportunities. By analyzing company-specific news, economic indicators, and market trends, you can capitalize on short-term price fluctuations driven by fundamental factors.
4 ) Combining Approaches: Many investors adopt a hybrid approach by combining fundamental analysis with other methods, such as technical analysis or market sentiment analysis. Integrating different approaches can provide a more comprehensive view and help validate investment decisions. For example, technical analysis can help identify optimal entry and exit points based on short-term price patterns, complementing the long-term perspective offered by fundamental analysis.
5 ) Time and Effort: Consider the time and effort required for thorough fundamental analysis. Analyzing financial statements, researching industry trends, and staying updated with company news demands substantial time and research skills. If you have limited availability or prefer a more passive investment approach, fundamental analysis may not be the most suitable option.
Ultimately, the decision to use fundamental analysis depends on your investment objectives and individual preferences. It's important to consider your own circumstances, risk tolerance, time availability, and level of expertise before incorporating fundamental analysis into your investment strategy.
Fundamental analysis is indeed a valuable tool for investors, providing insights into the intrinsic value and long-term prospects of securities. However, it's important to recognize its limitations and the need to incorporate other methods into the investment process. By combining fundamental analysis with other approaches, investors can gain a more comprehensive understanding of the market and make better-informed decisions.
✨ P2P INDi [PRO] ✨ TUTORIAL ✨1. Go to the 1D time frame
2. Open chart drop down menu and select Point and Figure*
*Point & Figure below the 1D time frame is ONLY available to TradingView members that are subscribed to the Pro plan and above
3. Click on the SETTINGS wheel on the P2P INDi
4. Locate the DEFAULTS drop-down menu and select RESET SETTINGS
5. Click the INPUT tab
5. PIVOT PRICES
(a) Identify price(s) nearest the Pivot High (PH) and the Pivot Low (PL)
(b) Place those coordinates in the corresponding input box
(c) Click OK (at the bottom right)
6. On the Tool Panel (to the left), identify Magnet Mode and turn it on (weak or strong)
7. PIVOT PLACEMENT
(a) Drag the Pivot High line of P2P INDi and snap it on the corresponding X
(b) Do the same for the Pivot Low line and snap it on the corresponding O
8. ANNOTATING TREND
(a) Identify the trend shown on the Heads Up Display (top right-hand corner)
(b) If the DOWNTREND (red) is displayed, remove all three Buy Order TPs
(c) If the UPTREND (green) is displayed, remove all three Sell Order TPs
9. SET YOUR POSITIONS
(a) Place Buy and/or Sell Orders at 2%-3% or less of your Net Asset Value (NAV)
(b) If shaving, take 25% profit at the first two Take Profit (TP) prices.
(c) Stop Losses should be equal to or beyond the PH and PL lines
(d) If stop loss is greater than your risk tolerance:
— lower your position size or
— tighten your stop loss by bringing it closer to your entry
DISCLAIMER: Please notice that we do not provide financial advice — our website, indicators, strategies, signals, and mentorship courses are all intended only to provide a community of support to anyone interested in improving their trading skills. Fx'tive HNW $olutions, Inc. is a California corporation that publishes products and services for developing trading indicators and strategies on demand, renting and selling proprietary indicators and systems, training, and coaching exclusively intended for Daily₿read Subscribers ONLY.
1. INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY
The proprietary indicators, strategies, and content developed by the T.E.A.M. (FRIDAY, P2P INDi, P2P INDi, TEMASHA, The Library, Specialty Lesson, and other utility scripts or educational information), the object of intellectual property rights are and remain the exclusive property of Fx'tive HNW $olutions, Inc., at the exclusion of images and videos and texts free of rights or provided by Fx'tive HNW $olutions, Inc. or external legal or physical person. No assignment of intellectual property rights is carried out through these Terms and Conditions. Any total or partial reproduction, modification, or use of these properties for any reason whatsoever is strictly prohibited without the express written authorization of Fx'tive HNW $olutions, Inc.
2. RESPONSIBILITIES
You declare to know the principles and risks of the financial markets. Therefore, you swear that you know the financial risks involved in trading. In this sense, the directors, employees, stakeholders, and partners of Fx'tive HNW $olutions, Inc. can not be held responsible for errors, omissions, inappropriate investments, technical problems, events beyond our control, and, more generally, financial losses that you may realize, or results obtained in the practice of trading resulting from the services or products it markets.
3. RISK WARNING
Trading involves a high level of financial risk and may not be appropriate because you may experience losses greater than your deposit. In addition, leverage can be against you. Do not trade with capital that you can not afford to lose. You must know and understand all the risks associated with the market and trading. We can not be held responsible for any loss you incur.
Trading Mindset: The Winning Edge!In the world of trading, strategy, and market knowledge are typically seen as the twin pillars of success. However, this is only part of the picture. The psychological aspect of trading is often overlooked but can be equally, if not more, influential in shaping trading outcomes. This component involves understanding and managing the emotions, biases, and mental states that can impact trading decisions. Emotional decision-making can lead to costly mistakes, such as panic selling during market dips or holding onto a losing trade for too long out of hope or fear. Therefore, it is crucial to cultivate a clear, disciplined mindset for more profitable and consistent trading outcomes. This tutorial will delve into the psychological landscape of trading, providing valuable insights and practical tips to master your mind and, consequently, the market.
Common Psychological Traps in Trading
There are several psychological traps that traders can fall into, which can seriously undermine their trading performance. One of these traps is overconfidence. After a streak of successful trades, it's easy to start feeling invincible, which can lead to riskier trading behaviors and impulsive decisions.
Fear and greed are two more emotions that often dictate trading decisions. They are the key drivers behind market trends and can lead to significant financial losses if not managed properly. The fear of missing out (FOMO) can push traders into hasty, poorly thought-out trades, while greed can create a reluctance to sell even when all signs point to a market downturn.
Another common psychological pitfall is anchoring. This occurs when a trader becomes fixated on specific price points or values, which can distort their perception of a security's true value and hinder rational decision-making.
Understanding Your Trading Emotions
To manage your trading emotions effectively, you first need to understand them. One practical way to do this is by keeping a trading journal. Besides recording your trades and their outcomes, this journal should also note down your emotions and thoughts at the time of each trade. Over time, you may start to see patterns in how your emotions affect your trading decisions.
Knowing your risk tolerance is another crucial factor. Each trader has a different level of comfort when it comes to taking risks, and understanding this can significantly shape your trading strategy. A risk-averse trader might prefer more stable assets, while a risk-tolerant one might be comfortable with higher volatility.
Strategies for Managing Trading Emotions
Being in the right mental state before you start trading is paramount. Developing a pre-trade routine that helps you calm down and focus can prepare you for the trading day ahead. This routine could include activities like meditating, exercising, or going over the latest market news and your trading plan for the day.
Having a clear trading plan can also provide a solid foundation for managing your emotions. This plan should outline your strategy, including risk management tactics, potential entry and exit points, and your objectives for each trade. It serves as a roadmap and can keep you grounded when market volatility triggers emotional responses.
In addition, learning stress management techniques can be invaluable in trading, a field often fraught with stress. Taking regular breaks, deep breathing exercises, and ensuring you have a balanced lifestyle outside of trading can help maintain your mental equilibrium.
Conclusion and Further Reading
Trading psychology is a vast and complex field, but understanding its fundamental principles can drastically improve your trading performance. By being aware of the common psychological traps, understanding your own emotions and risk tolerance, and employing effective strategies to manage your trading emotions, you can make more informed and profitable trading decisions.
Continuous learning and emotional self-awareness are keys to successful trading. There are numerous resources available for those who want to delve deeper into trading psychology, risk management, and market analysis. While the journey to master your trading psychology can be challenging, the potential rewards - improved trading outcomes and personal growth - are well worth the effort.
Decoding the Structure of the Federal Reserve System 🏦
If you've ever wondered how the U.S. monetary system functions and who runs the show, keep reading. In this article, we will break down the structure of the Federal Reserve System and help you understand how it operates.
🏦 The Federal Reserve System, often referred to as the Fed, is the central banking system of the United States. It was created in 1913 by the Federal Reserve Act and is an independent entity within the government. The Fed has a three-part structure, including the Board of Governors, the Federal Reserve Banks, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
1️⃣ Board of Governors:
The Board of Governors is the governing body of the Federal Reserve System. It consists of seven members appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate for 14-year non-renewable terms. One person is designated by the President as Chair and another as Vice-Chair. The Board's main function is to set monetary policy, supervise and regulate banking institutions, and maintain the stability of the financial system.
2️⃣Federal Reserve Banks:
There are 12 Federal Reserve Banks located throughout the United States. Each Federal Reserve Bank serves a specific geographic district and is responsible for carrying out the policies set forth by the Board of Governors. The Federal Reserve Banks are overseen by a board of nine directors, six of whom are appointed by banks in the district, and three by the Board of Governors.
In addition to overseeing the banking system, the Federal Reserve Banks also provide services to financial institutions and the U.S. Treasury. These services include processing and clearing checks, storing currency, and distributing new currency.
3️⃣Federal Open Market Committee:
The FOMC is the most powerful body within the Federal Reserve System. It is responsible for setting monetary policy, specifically the target for the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate that banks charge each other for overnight loans. The FOMC is made up of the seven members of the Board of Governors and five of the 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents.
The FOMC meets eight times a year to analyze economic data and determine appropriate policy decisions. Their decisions impact not only the banking system but also the overall economy. For example, if the FOMC decides to raise interest rates, it will become more expensive to borrow money, affecting everything from mortgages to credit card payments.
Conclusion:
The Federal Reserve System is a complex organization that plays a critical role in the U.S. economy. Its structure is designed to ensure checks and balances across its three branches so that no one entity has too much power. While the Board of Governors sets policy and oversees the entire system, the Federal Reserve Banks carry out those policies and provide essential services to the financial system. The FOMC, on the other hand, is responsible for setting monetary policy, affecting the interest rates that impact our daily lives.
Understanding the Federal Reserve System is essential for anyone wanting to understand the U.S. economy. Knowing how the Fed operates can help individuals and businesses make informed decisions about their finances. With this knowledge, you can better navigate the ups and downs of the economy and protect your hard-earned money.
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