How To Use Volume Profile Tool For Massive Gains! 99% ReturnsDisclaimer: Not Financial Advice
Using The Volume Profile as a tool for my Nava Imbalance Strategy, I have made 99% ROI time and time again!
1. How I Use Volume Profile Tool
(From Last Major Swing To Present)
Blue Lines = Immediate Support/Resistance (Range)
- Best entry ZONES, Area to WAIT for BUY SETUPS
- Best to wait for price to pass sup/res lines and on the way back enter or wait for a retest.
Light Blue = MAGNET LINE
(Shows which side the pressure is pointing to)
- Price will always come back to the magnet line
- IF magnet line is getting closer to one side of the range, Its early indication of direction.
- Note, price WILL fakeout to the opposing side blue line before moving hard to direction of early indication to give you best possible entry!
WARNING: Volume Tool CHANGES. Long term not so much but still keep in mind.
2. Magnet Line is closer to bottom of range =
Bearish Pressure
3. Pressure builds up within the magnet and support zone
until price breaks out to retest opposing blue line resistance first.
4. BEST POSSIBLE SHORT ENTRY
Retest here usually results
in a Fakeout. Look for ENTRY SETUPS
5. ENTRY SETUPS
Double Top/bottom, Head & Shoulders, rsi/macd oversold/overbought, etc.
6. FOR BEST RESULTS (80% Profitable)
Use Volume Profile Tool with Nava Imbalance Strategy
(View @JOKESTV Tradingview)
Analysis
Develop your trading psychology There are 2 types of edges in trading, a trading strategy edge and a trading psychology edge.
You need to have both to succeed.
This post will focus on how to develop your mental edge, which is the more important of the 2 types.
The process of developing a trading psychology edge is simple, but usually not easy.
Start trading
Identify your advantages and weaknesses
Find solutions to your weaknesses
Review your results
Repeat steps 3 and 4 until you reach your goals
In this post, I'll give you strategies to uncover your trading genius and overcome your biggest roadblocks.
Keep reading to learn the details of each step.
1. Start Trading
This step might seem obvious to some people, but it won't be to others, so I'm going to talk about it.
In order to develop a mental edge in trading, you have to engage the markets on a regular basis.
Even if you only demo trade, taking trades will start to expose your psychological strengths and weaknesses, within the context of trading.
Here are some things that you might discover after you begin trading.
You're afraid to take trades
It's easier for you to follow a rules based trading strategy
You have a tendency to revenge trade
You're good at riding trends
You take good notes
You don't like backtesting
You get easily discouraged after a series of losses
That's just a short list of what could come up for you.
But you'll only discover these things when you go through the process of taking trades and experiencing the emotional ups and downs that come with wins and losses.
Once you've taken some trades, now it's time to take an inventory of your strengths and weaknesses.
2. Identify Your Advantages and Weaknesses
How many times have you experienced an event with a group of people and they noticed things about the event that you missed?
This is because they were aware of those things and you weren't.
You also probably noticed things that they didn't.
That shows that we will only notice things that we place our awareness on.
So start a trading journal and write down what you're good at and what you aren't so great at, while you're trading.
This is the first step to full awareness.
The things you do well will give you clues as to what you should probably focus on in trading.
For example, if you find it easy to follow a trend on the daily chart, then you should probably work on trading some sort of trend following, swing trading strategy.
If you lose a lot of money when you day trade, then that's probably something you should avoid.
Maybe you live in a timezone that makes it difficult to trade the New York Forex session. Then you could work on a strategy that trades the Asian session or the London open instead.
Like with any other skill, there will be things that are optional, and there will be things that you have to change.
In the case of day trading versus swing trading, you don't have to day trade. You can trade on other time frames, so being bad at day trading is not a problem.
But let's say that you have a tendency to over trade and revenge trade.
That's a problem that has to be fixed if you want to become a successful trader.
So find ways to amplify your strengths.
That's pretty easy.
3. Find Solutions to Your Weaknesses
The great news is that there are a ton of solutions out there to help you overcome anything you're working on.
You simply have to do the work to seek out these solutions and implement them.
I cannot list all of the strategies available because there are so many of them.
But I'll get you started with the 2 general categories.
I believe that there are only 2 parts to the human mind, the conscious and subconscious.
Yeah, you probably knew that already.
However, I feel that many therapists and coaches don't understand how to apply this concept effectively. Many are trained in a particular type of treatment. Most only follow the doctrine of that modality and think that everything can be solved through that lens.
Obviously, the more aware ones understand the limitations of their craft. But there are many who do not.
Not entirely their fault. They don't know what they don't know.
There are a lot of things that I don't know either.
But I do know that it's up you to you to use your intellect to figure out what will work best for you.
That said, let's take a look at a real example of why the conscious/subconscious theory is so important.
I have a friend who used to smoke. If you know a smoker, or you were a smoker, you know that it can be one of the toughest habits to break.
But guess how he quit?
He was on a smoke break at work one day…
He looked the the cigarette, and thought “This is dumb.”
So he quit cold turkey, on the spot.
That's it.
How was that possible?
I don't think that anyone knows for sure, probably not even him. But here's my theory…
There's always a reason why we do things. Our actions fulfill a need or desire in our mind.
Sometimes the cause of a desire sits in our conscious mind. But many times it sits in the subconscious mind.
I believe that the cause of his smoking habit was in his conscious mind. So he could use a conscious thought to change the behavior.
That's why it was so easy.
Now if the source was in his subconscious, even though he knew that smoking was a waste of time and money, it would have been much harder to quit.
So when you look for methods to help you change your behaviors, start with the conscious methods first because those will give you the easiest wins.
But if you cannot change with those methods, then it's time to go deeper and dive into your subconscious.
It's not always possible to figure out if a behavior is caused by a subconscious or conscious source. It can also be difficult to figure out which part of your mind a treatment will work on.
That's OK.
Do your best and you'll get a good feel for it after trying a few different things.
What about your weaknesses?
That will probably take a little more effort.
Here's how to get started with overcoming them.
Conscious Mind Methods
Methods for changing thoughts in your conscious mind usually involve mental visualization exercises, repeating affirmations or visual cues.
Neuro linguistic programming (NLP)
Mind Movies
Visualization
Vision boards
Mantras
Talk therapy
Subconscious Mind Methods
Changing your subconscious mind is a new concept to many people and it's probably new to you too. The reason why this works may not be obvious at first.
You're basically digging down into your subconscious and bringing the causes of your negative behavior to the surface. When you do this, it's much easier to resolve the issue so the symptoms never come up again.
This can be very powerful stuff and you really have to experience it believe it.
Subliminal recordings
Hypnosis with a therapist
Cloud Sound Therapy
The Emotion Code
Clairvision
Again, this is just a short list of what's out there. But it will give you a great starting point.
4. Review Your Results
Now it's time to see how you've done.
Sit down on a Sunday morning with a coffee (or your favorite drink) and review your trading journal again.
Did the methods you used work?
If yes, then great, you're done! You can stop reading right now.
However, it's more likely that you still have things that aren't completely resolved.
That's just how it works.
Unfortunately, modern mass marketing has given us the impression that there's always a pill or hack that we can use to instantly achieve any outcome that we want.
In reality, that's rarely the case.
It's like mining. Miners almost never hit gold on the first try.
They usually have to do a lot of homework and drill several holes before they find a workable mine.
So put down your discouragement and dig your heels in for the long haul. Your transformation could be fast, but it's more likely that it will be a process.
That's how your great grandparents did it, along with every generation before them.
The idea of instant results is a new and often unrealistic ideal.
5. Repeat Steps 3 and 4 Until You Reach Your Goals
Instead of getting discouraged, do this:
Congratulate yourself for taking action.
Celebrate what did work. It's very likely that you made some progress, no matter how small.
Look for the next thing to try. Assuming you gave the first thing an honest try, it just might not have been a good fit for you.
I've had many cases where this has happened in my life.
For example, back in the day, I used to listen to a lot of Tony Robbins recordings. He's great, I have nothing against Tony.
However, I put too much faith in the idea that he had all the answers. I figured that since he had so many high-profile clients, he must have a solution that could help me.
So I would listen to his tracks over and over, and implement the strategies…over and over.
…and they did help a little.
But they didn't create the big shifts that I was looking for.
Instead of continuing to do something that didn't work, I should have reassessed my results after a few weeks, then tried something else. I just didn't know any better back then, and I'm OK with that.
It literally took me years to figure out that I needed to branch out and try other things.
I want you to learn from my experience.
If you didn't get the results that you expected, then don't get down on yourself.
Remember that one of the the most powerful tools that you can have in your trading toolbox is self-forgiveness.
It will take as long as it takes for you to become successful at trading. So get back up on your horse and keep going.
Of course, there can be the tendency to have “shiny object syndrome,” where you keep hopping to the next new thing. So you have to be honest and ask yourself if you've given the method an honest try, before moving on.
Only you can answer that question.
EXPLAINED: Gearing and how it worksThere is one tool with trading, which you can accelerate your portfolio, compared to with investing.
I’m talking about Gearing (or leverage).
To wrap our head around this concept, here’s a more relatable life example.
When you buy a house for R1,000,000, it is very similar to trading derivatives. Initially, the homeowner most probably won’t have the full R1,000,000 to buy the house with just one purchase.
Instead, they’ll sign a bond agreement, make a 10% deposit (R100,000), borrow the rest from the bank and be exposed to the full purchase price of the home. This is a similar concept for when you trade with gearing.
Gearing is a tool which allows you to pay a small amount of money (deposit) in order to gain control and be exposed to a larger sum of money.
You’ll simply buy a contract of the underlying share, use borrowed money to trade with and be exposed to the full share’s value.
Let’s simplify this with a more relatable life example:
How gearing works with CFDs
Let’s say you want to buy 1,000 shares of Jimbo’s Group Ltd at R50 per share as you believe the share price is going to go up to R60 in the next three months. You’ll need to pay the entire R50,000 to own the full value of the 1,000 shares (R50 X 1,000 shares).
In three months’ time, if the share price hits R60 you’ll then be exposed to R60,000 (1,000 shares X R60 per share).
Note: I’ve excluded trading costs for simplicity purposes throughout this section
If you sold all your shares, you’ll be up R10,000 profit (R60,000 – R50,000). The problem is you had to pay the full R50,000 to be exposed to those 1,000 shares.
When you trade a geared instrument like CFDs, you won’t ever have to worry about paying the full value of a share again.
A CFD is an unlisted over-the-counter financial derivative contract between two parties to exchange the price difference of the opening and closing price of the underlying asset.
Let’s break that down into an easy-to-understand definition.
A CFD (Contract For Difference) is an
Unlisted (You don’t trade through an exchange)
Over The Counter (Via a private dealer or market maker)
Financial derivative contract (Value from the underlying market)
Between two parties (The buyer and seller) to
Exchange the
Price difference of the opening and closing price of the
Underlying asset (Instrument the CFD price is based on)
Let’s use an example of a company called Jimbo’s Group Ltd, who offers the function to trade CFDs.
The initial margin (deposit) requirement is 10% of the share’s value. This means, you’ll pay R5.00 per CFD instead of R50, and you’ll be exposed to the full value of the share.
To calculate the gearing (or leverage ratio) you’ll simply divide what you’ll be exposed to over the initial margin deposit.
Here’s the gearing calculation on a per CFD basis:
Gearing
= (Exposure per share ÷ Initial deposit per CFD)
= (R50 per share ÷ R5.00 per CFD)
= 10 times gearing
This means two things…
#1. For every one Jimbo’s Group Ltd CFD you buy for R5.00 per CFD, you’ll be exposed to 10 times more (the full value of the share).
#2. For every one cent the share rises or falls, you’ll gain or lose 10 cents.
To have the exposure of the full 1,000 shares of Jimbo’s Group Ltd, you’ll simply need to buy 1,000 CFDs. This will require a deposit of R5,000 (1,000 CFDs X R5.00 per CFD).
With a 10% margin deposit (R5,000), you’d have the exact same exposure as you’d have with a conventional R50,000 shares’ investment.
Here is the calculation you can use to work out the exposure of the trade.
Overall trade exposure
= (Total initial margin X Gearing)
= (R5,000 X 10 times)
= R50,000
With an initial deposit of R5,000 and with a gearing of 10 times, you’ll be exposed to the full R50,000 worth of shares.
In three months’ if the share price reaches R60, your new overall trade exposure will be R60,000 worth of shares (1,000 shares X R60 per share). If you sold all of your positions, you’d bank a R10,000 gain (R60,000 – R50,000).
But remember, you only deposited R5,000 into your trade and not the full R50,000. This is the beauty of trading geared derivative instruments.
If you want any other technical trading or fundamental term explained, please comment below. I'm happy to help.
Trade well, live free
Timon
MATI Trader
Feel free to follow my socials below.
P:E Ratio EXPLAINED Fully with examplesWhat is the PE ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio or P/E is a financial ratio used to evaluate a company’s share.
How is it calculated?
Current market’s price / Earnings Per Share (EPS).
Share price / EPS
What does it show you?
It shows you whether a company’s stock (based on its earnings) is:
Overvalued or Undervalued.
Also, it gives an indication on how many years it will take for the earnings of the company to equal to the share price.
What does a HIGH PE show
• A very high PE could mean the share may be overvalued.
• Investors are paying more for each rand or dollar of earnings.
• It will take longer for the investors to recoup their investments.
What does a LOW PE show
• Share may be undervalued.
• This could signal a buying signal for investors.
• Or it could signal danger as to why investors aren’t buying the share price up.
What are the advantages of a PE?
1. Gives an indication on how long it will take to make up for the investment.
2. Can signal buying opportunities in some shares.
3. Can give you an example of what one company’s PE ratio is in comparison to other shares in its sector.
What are the disadvantages of a PE?
1. Does not take into account of the company’s growth or future earnings potentials (You’ll need the PEG ratio).
2. Doesn’t include the company’s dividends
3. Doesn’t take into account of the other financial indicators.
Note: You need to use other ratios and financial indicators to base a decision. PE isn’t good enough. The PEG Ratio is more reliable as it takes into account the growth rate of the PE over the years.
Example of an Overvalued PE ratio:
Company TIMX
Share price R200
EPS (Earnings Per Share): R10
P:E Ratio = 20 (R200 / R10)
This means investors are willing to pay R20 for every R1 of the company’s earnings. Or they are willing to pay 20 times more than what the EPS is.
This is unstable as what the company is priced at versus what the investors have priced the company at could result in a bubble.
And so it can get to the point where investors start selling their stock which will cause a drop in price.
Also, the P:E ratio states it will take 20 years for the investors to get their money’s worth.
However, if the prospects are good and the company is showing strong future growth, this could be a reason why investors are paying a PREMIUM for their stock.
Example of an Undervalued PE ratio:
Company TIMX
Share price R100
EPS (Earnings over the share price): R25
P:E Ratio = 4 (R100 / R25)
This means investors are not willing to pay a higher price for the company’s earning. In this case, they are only paying 8 times more than what the EPS is.
This could indicate that the company is going through financial difficulties and is NOT expected to grow.
BIG BUT!
However, it’s not easy to calculate what a HIGH or LOW PE ratio is for just any company. This is because you need to compare it to their competitors and peers.
A little bit about volumes and the master of all averagesSo, let's refresh our knowledge from the previous posts (read part 1 and part 2 at the links):
- The chart is based on the data from the tape;
- The X-axis is the time scale, and the Y-axis is the price scale;
- To avoid having to analyze a huge number of trades, interval charts were invented for convenience;
- The most popular chart type is the Candlestick chart;
- The candlestick consists of a body and shadows (upper and lower). The body is drawn at the open and close prices of the interval. The shadows are built by the maximum price (high), and the minimum price (low);
- The time interval for one candle is called a time frame. The smaller the time frame, the more detailed information we get about the price changes.
In addition to information about the price dynamics, from the stock chart, we can get information about the dynamics of trading volume. These are bars that we see below the candlesticks. They are also drawn on the basis of information from the tape. Let's return to our example:
FB $110 20 lots 12/03/21 12-34-59
FB $115 25 lots 12/03/21 12-56-01
FB $100 10 lots 12/03/21 12-59-12
FB $105 30 lots 12/03/21 12-59-48
If you add up all the lots of trades in the interval from 12-00-00 to 12-59-59, we get 85 lots. Then the lots need to be multiplied by the number of stocks in one lot, for example, 100. It turns out that 8500 shares changed their owners in 1 hour. This information is displayed as a bar below each candlestick.
My strategy does not use a trading volume analysis, but it is important to understand that increasing trading volumes are a sign of increasing attention to the stock. However, this attention does not always translate into higher prices. If there is negative news about a company, we will see both a drop in the stock price and an increase in volume.
What is constantly used in my investment strategy is the moving average . What is it? This is the average of the close prices of a selected number of candles, starting with the last one.
I use the average of the close values of the last 252 candlesticks. Why this number? The number 252 corresponds to the average number of trading days per year on the NYSE and the NASDAQ. That is, in fact, the average annual moving price .
Why is it moving? Because every day there is a new candlestick with a new close value, and it begins a new calculation of the average value of the last 252 daily candlesticks.
You can plot the moving average chart on a candlestick chart and see how far the current price has "run away" from the annual average price. I will tell you exactly how to apply this in investing in the next posts, and that's all for today.
Finally, I will ask you to reflect on one thought:
One who is true to the golden mean will always find something that someone else missed and give it to someone who is afraid to miss it.
See you in future posts.
Japanese Candlesticks: Game of Body and ShadowsSo, in the last post we learned how to build a simple line chart based on the tape. Each point on the chart is defined by coordinates from the time (X scale) and price (Y scale) of a trade. But some stocks are traded at a frequency of hundreds of trades per second, at different prices. The question arises: which trade price to choose from this set?
Interval charts were invented to solve this question. The most popular is the Candlestick Chart. They appeared in Japan three hundred years ago, when the Japanese exchanges were trading rice. They were invented by a trader named Homma. Apparently, being tired of drawing a lot of points on charts, he decided that it would be more convenient to show the price change over the time interval. So, what he came up with.
Let's take a time frame equal to one hour and plot a 1-hour candle on the basis of the following tape:
FB $110 20 lots 12/12/22 12-34-59
FB $115 25 lots 12/12/22 12-56-01
FB $100 10 lots 12/12/22 12-59-12
FB $105 30 lots 12/12/22 12-59-48
A candle consists of a body and upper and lower shadows. Like a float. The body is formed from the open and close prices of a certain time frame. In our case the hour interval is from 12-00-00 till 12-59-59. Only 4 deals were concluded in this time interval. The price of the first deal is $110, which is the opening price of the period or the so-called " open ". The price of the last deal was $105, which is the period closing price or " close ". These two prices are enough to form the body of the candle.
Now let us move on to the shadows. The upper shadow is drawn at the maximum price of the interval (115$) and is called " high ". The lower shadow is drawn at the minimum price of the interval ($100) and is called " low ".
The shape of our candle is ready. However, it should also have a content, namely the color. What is it for? Let's take a look at another candle.
Here we can see where is the high and where is the low. But how do we know which is the open or the close? After all, the open is not always at the bottom of the candlestick body, as in the previous example, it can be at the top.
To understand where is the open and where is the close, Homma has invented to paint the body of a candlestick in black, if close is lower than the open, i.e. if the price in the interval is falling (falling candle or bearish candle ).
But if close is higher than open, the body of the candle remains white, it will indicate the growth of price during the interval (rising candle or bullish candle ).
Sometimes a candlestick has shadows, and the close price is equal to the open price. Then it will look like a cross. This candlestick is called a doji .
White and black are the classic colors for the bodies of Japanese candles. However, you can come up with your own colors. If you want the rising candles, for example, to be blue, and the falling orange - you're welcome. The main thing is to make it convenient and understandable for you.
So, one candlestick allows us to understand where we had the first trade, the last trade, the price maximum and minimum in a given time frame. But it does not allow us to understand how the price changed within the interval: when the maximum or minimum was reached and what was happening within this price range.
But the problem can be easily solved if we switch to a smaller time frame. If we look at the daily candlesticks (this is when the time frame of one candle is equal to one day), and we want to see what was during the day - we switch to the hourly time frame. If we want to see even more details - we switch to 15-minute candles and so on down to the seconds. But you and I will most often use daily timeframes, so as not to be distracted by the fluctuations that occur during the day.
To be continued :)
4 Problems when you Hold a Delisted ShareAs we are expecting Steinhoff to delist soon.
What if you continue holding shares in the company?
From my experience when a company goes from listed to private it means a few things.
1. Liquidity issues
Volume will be low where you might not be able to exit a position with a rightful buyer or sell
2. lack of transparency
This leads to uncertainty for the business as shares holders won't have the transparent information like they would with a public company.
3. Valuation
With a company listed privately, this can lead to investors pricing in the business rather than shareholders. This can result in slower performance in the price of the share.
4. Market perception
The fact that a company has been delisted can be seen as a negative development by some investors, who may view it as a sign of financial distress or poor management. This can affect the market's perception of the company and its shares, which can in turn affect the value of your investment.
Do you have a fundamental analysis question?
Let me know in the comments and I'll answer in simple terms.
Trade well, live free.
Timon
MATI Trader
The birth of the chart. The evolution of the tapeLast time we studied how the exchange price is formed, and we found out that it is important to learn how to read charts correctly in order to analyze price changes correctly. Let's see how a chart is made and what it can tell us.
Everyone who went to school probably remembers: to draw a function, we need the X and Y axes. In stock charts, the X-axis is responsible for the time scale, and the Y-axis is responsible for the price scale. As we already know, a chart is built on the basis of data from a tape. At the previous post , we have produced the following tape:
FB $110 20 lots
FB $115 5 lots
FB $100 10 lots
Actually, in addition to ticker, price and volume the tape also fixes time of trade. Let's add this parameter to our tape:
FB $110 20 lots 12/08/22 12-34-59
FB $115 5 lots 12/08/22 12-56-01
FB $100 10 lots 12/08/22 12-59-02
That's it. Now this data is enough to put points on the chart. We draw three points, connect them with straight lines and get a chart.
At one time, this was enough, because trades on the exchange were not frequent. But now some popular stocks, such as Apple or Google, have hundreds of trades per second with different prices.
If the minimum division on the X scale is one second, what price point should we put if there were many trades at different prices in one second? Or let's place all the points at once?
We will discuss that in the next post. And now, as a postscript, I want to show you some pictures describing how the tape was born and evolved.
Here is a picture of a stock player, looking through a tape with quotations, which is given by a special telegraph machine.
Each telegraph machine is connected by wires which, like a spider's web, entangle New York City.
1930's broker's office with several telegraph machines and a quotation board.
An employee of the exchange looking through a tape of quotes. It won't be long before all this is replaced by the first computers.
We'll continue today's theme soon.
Market order or the hunger games of stock tradingThe previous parts of the post can be found at the links:
Part 1 - How is the share price formed on the stock exchange? We do it
Part 2 - Bid/Offer: The Yin and Yang of Stock Prices
So, let's continue. So why don't we ever see some orders in the order book?
Because such orders don't have a price, which means they can't be arranged in a book where all orders are sorted by price. This type of order is used by buyers or sellers who don't want to wait for a counter offer with a suitable price.
"But how can you buy or sell something without specifying a price?" - you ask. It turns out it's possible. When you put out an order without specifying a price, the order simply "eats up" the number of lots you need at the prices currently on the books. Such an order is called a " market order ". We can say that the most "hungry" investors who want to satisfy their "hunger" right now use the market order. Remember yourself: when you really want, for example, a cake, you won't stand at the counter and wait for the seller to set the price you want, you'll just buy the cake at the price that's valid at the moment.
So, let's imagine that someone sent the following order to the exchange: " to sell FB stocks in the volume of 20 lots". Such an order will not appear in the book, but it will "eat" all bids within 20 lots, starting with the most expensive ones.
In our example, there were a total of 15 lots left in the book, so the following concluded trades will be printed in the tape:
FB $115 5 lots
FB $100 10 lots
What will happen to the remaining market order of 5 lots (20-15) that couldn't be filled? The exchange will cancel the order for this remainder, as there are no counter offers in the book.
So, let's review what we learned in the current series of posts:
- For each company, the exchange maintains its own order book for buying and selling stocks;
- A buy order is called a "bid";
- A sell order is called an "offer";
- The order must contain the ticker (abbreviated name of the stock), the direction of the transaction (buy or sell), the price per share and the volume in lots;
- The lot size is set by the exchange. It may be equal to 1 share, 100 shares or some other quantity;
- All orders in the book are called "limit orders";
- There is a special type of orders, which are called "market orders". They have the following parameters: ticker, trade direction, volume in lots, and have no "price" parameter.
- The intersection of buy and sell orders by price creates a trade;
- The volume and price of a trade depends on how much volume was "eaten" in the counter offer and at what price;
- The trade is recorded in the tape. Each company has its own tape.
By the way, our book became empty because all limit orders were filled and no new ones came in. As a result, we have a tape of three trades. The trades are recorded in the tape according to when they were made:
FB $110 20 lots
FB $115 5 lots
FB $100 10 lots
So, when you see a flashing stock price somewhere, like in the broker's app, know that it's the last trade in the tape as of the current second. Or if you hear that Tesla stock has reached $2,000 a share, that means that there's a $2,000-a-share deal imprinted in the Tesla tape.
To show how the stock price has changed over time, a chart is made based on the prices of the trades and when they were made. At its core, a chart is a demonstration of how the stock tape has changed over time.
Knowing how to read a price chart is a basic skill that you will use as you invest. I will tell you how to read charts at our next meeting.
Bid/Offer: The Yin and Yang of Stock PricesRead the first part of this post at the link: How is the share price formed on the stock exchange? We do it
So at what price and what volume will the deal eventually be made? To understand this, let's go back to the "price" parameter of the order.
When a buyer placed an order "to buy 25 lots at $115 a share", the exchange takes it as "to buy 25 lots at a price not more than $115 a share". That is the purchase price can be less than the price stated in the order, but not more.
And when the seller earlier submitted an order "to sell 20 lots at $110 a share", the exchange takes it as "to sell 20 lots at a price not less than $110 a share". That is, it is possible to sell at a price higher than that specified in the order, but not less.
Once again: buyers always put orders "buy at no more than such-and-such a price", and sellers always put orders "sell at no less than such-and-such a price".
So, we return to the situation with the crossing of prices. When the exchange detects a crossover, it begins to execute the order that has caused this crossover. In our case, it is an order for 25 lots at $115 per share. This order kind of "eats up" all sell orders that are on the way to the price of $115 (that is, everything cheaper than $115), until it reaches 25 lots.
Which orders were "eaten up" in our case? One single order to sell is 20 lots at $110 per share.
What was "eaten" is recorded as a buy and sell trade in what's called a tape. It's similar to the way a cash register punches a check with a price. The record looks like this:
FB $110 20 lots
However, we have a remainder after the trade is 5 lots, the remainder of those 25 at a price of $115. Since at this price (or lower) nothing can be "eaten", the order remains in the left page of the book until a suitable offer.
Let's see how the FB order book looks now, after the deal is done:
Let me note again that all orders in the book are sorted in descending order from top to bottom.
The concept of "book" is very useful for understanding how the exchange price is formed. In the past, when there were no electronic trading systems, there were so-called floor brokers, who used to collect and record prices and volumes of orders in a real book. Nowadays you may encounter alternative terms like Depth of Market (DOM), Level II, but they are all identical to the notion of an " order book ".
The orders to buy that we see in the order book are called " bids ", and the orders to sell are called " offers ". So, in our order book there are two bids and no offers. All bids and offers are called " limit orders " because they have a price limit.
But there's also a type of order that we will never see in the book. Why? I'll tell you in the next post.
How is the share price formed on the stock exchange? We do itYou already know that the stock exchange is a one-stop place to buy or sell stocks, whether you are a novice investor or a seasoned professional. But even if you don't trade stocks, you will still "come" to the stock exchange to find out stock prices.
Let's find out how the exchange price of a stock is formed. Regardless of what country the stock exchange is in, the rules for determining the price are similar for everyone. Let us understand how it works, as always, with the help of our imagination.
Imagine a large rack of books. Each book has a name on the cover: Apple, Facebook, Amazon, etc. Let's take one of the books, let's say Facebook, and open it. We will see only two pages, and they are both blank. On the left page we will record buyers' orders to buy shares, and on the right page we will record sellers' orders, respectively, to sell shares. So, every day the exchange, when it opens trading, essentially opens such a "book" and records every bid it receives.
What should be written in the order?
First of all, there must be an abbreviated name of the stock, or, in professional slang, the "ticker," to understand which book to get off the shelf. For example, Facebook shares have a ticker consisting of two letters FB, while Apple shares have four letters - AAPL.
Second, the order must indicate the direction of the transaction, i.e. "buy" or "sell". This is how the exchange understands whether to record the incoming information on the left or on the right page of the book.
Third, the order must indicate the price per share, so that the exchange can sort the orders in descending order of price from top to bottom.
Fourth, the order must specify the volume in lots, that is, how many lots of shares we want to buy or sell. To clarify: Shares on the exchange are not traded by the piece, but by the lot. The lot size is set by the exchange. One lot may be equal to one share, or a hundred, a thousand, or even ten thousand shares (depending on the specific share). This is really handy because the price of one share can be equal to, for example, the price of your computer (then 1 lot may be equal to 1 share), and sometimes 1 share may be worth as much as a box of matches (then 1 lot may be equal to a thousand shares). Why "may be"? The specific rules for determining the lot size depend on the laws of the country and the exchange itself. For example, on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the usual size of 1 lot is equal to 100 shares.
So, let's return to our example. Suppose we want to buy shares of FB at a price of $100 per share in the amount of 10 lots. Then the exchange will record the following on the left side of the FB book:
100$ 10
Then there is a seller who wants to sell FB stock at $110 per share in an amount of 20 lots. Then this is what the exchange will record in the right side of the book:
110$ 20
Then there is a buyer who wants to buy FB stocks at $115 per share in an amount of 25 lots. The entry on the left side of the FB book will look like this:
115$ 25
And now comes the interesting part.
Did you notice that the $115 price in the last buy order is higher than the single sell order of $110? That means the buyer is willing to make a deal at a price even higher than what the seller is offering. So at what price and what volume will the deal end up being made?
Please wait for the next post.
Picking rules - the Lynch methodBack in 1977, the still famous investment company Fidelity Investments entrusted the management of a small fund of $18 million to this very man. The next 13 years were impressive for the Magellan fund and its manager - the famous Peter Lynch. The fund's assets grew to $14 billion, more than doubling the average annual growth of the S&P500 stock index.
When he stopped actively managing assets, Peter shared his approach with the rest of us. Some of his thoughts inspired me to create my approach and may be useful to you as well.
1. The private investor has an objective advantage over institutional investors (e.g., funds) because he is more agile. He is not burdened by the need to coordinate his actions with the management of the company, and his purchase requests are easily satisfied by the market. Agreed, it's easier to buy for $1,000 than it is to buy for $1 billion. Thus, the private investor can catch prices that the big "players" will have a hard time getting.
2. Don't spend everything you have under your belt on stock investments. The trades will not be able to close "in the plus" just by your own volition. So first provide yourself with a financial safety cushion, a stable job and a place to live, and then start investing.
3. Admit to yourself: are you a patient person who is capable of making independent decisions, diving deep into analysis and soberly reacting to plus and minus changes? If not, practice, but on small volumes.
4. Never buy a company's stock if you can't explain what it does and can't talk about its financial performance. The stock market is no place for gambling. There are slot machines, etc., for that.
5. The company works for profit and grows because of it. So keep an eye on everything that affects profits. Evaluate the company not in monetary units, but in the number of profits.
6. Watch where the company invests its profits. If it's mostly capital investments that will probably make a profit someday, in the distant future - think about it. After all, the beautiful future as conceived may not come. If, on the other hand, the company is allocating its profits to buying its own stock, it means that management thinks the current stock price is attractive enough.
7. The success of the stock may be unrelated to the company's financial success. Beware of such investments.
8. A company's financial success may not be reflected in its stock price for a long time. However, the longer the period in question, the more direct the relationship. So if you select companies based on an analysis of financial performance, be prepared to make a long-term investment.
To this day, these thoughts help me look at assets consciously and not give in to spontaneous decisions.
What do you think of this approach?
I dream of entering the stock market. The question is: What for?Read the previous part of the post here .
Having received only denials, the owner of the workshop decides the following: it would be great if shares were sold and bought not in the offices of banks, but in one single place - the stock exchange. Then those who want to vote would be able to buy as many shares as they need votes. Those who want a discount will wait until the price on the stock exchange falls to an acceptable level for them. And those who bought one share would be able to sell it at any time at the exchange price. The owner likes this idea and decides to list his shares on the stock exchange.
Another term to remember is listing. Listing is the service of the stock exchange to allow the shares to be traded on the stock exchange.
Now the shares can be bought or sold in one place, simply by connecting to the stock exchange trading through brokerage companies. The banks, which have brokerage licenses, also liked it. The main thing is that now they do not have to convince clients to buy shares for dubious rights, you can just say that the price at the exchange is constantly changing, and if you buy shares at $ 1000 now (in the bank office), then a month later at the exchange you can sell them already at a higher price. This created a real stir around the company's shares, and they were bought up from banks at the IPO price - that is, at the original price of $1,000 per share.
A significant advantage for any investor is the ability to buy or sell shares quickly and easily. That is exactly the kind of opportunity stock exchanges provide. If there were no stock exchange, the owners of shares would have to look for buyers on their own. But now they have the opportunity to connect to the exchange and make a deal at any time.
As soon as the stock exchange started trading, the share price of the workshop came to life. This attracted new investors who tried to buy cheaper shares and sell at a higher price. Such investors include you and me.
So what we know so far:
- A company needs stock to sell a share of its business and get real money.
- Shares can only be issued by a public company.
- Shares give its owner rights: to vote, to receive agreed dividends, and to receive a share from a bankrupt company.
- The initial sale of shares to the public is called an IPO (initial public offering).
- During an IPO, shares are sold not on the stock exchange, but through brokers or banks.
- The first day of stock trading on the stock exchange is the completion of the IPO process.
- In order for the shares to be traded on the stock exchange, the company has to go through the listing procedure.
- It is only possible to buy shares on the stock exchange through a licensed broker.
- The exchange price is constantly changing during trading.
The workshop story may give the impression that we small investors are only being used to get money from us in exchange for unnecessary rights. However, it is important to understand that we are more interested in the opportunity to profit from the growth of the shares than in gaining formal rights. It is this desire that unites all shareholders of a company, whether you have one share or a million.
A joint-stock company can be compared to a hotel with many identical rooms. One share is one room. If the hotel is doing great and making a profit, investors will want to buy more rooms, and sellers will want to sell more rooms at a higher price. If the hotel performs poorly and makes a loss, then room owners will get rid of them (i.e. sell even at an unprofitable price to get money and find another hotel that is more attractive for investment).
The strategy I will share will be to find, figuratively, great hotels (in fact, joint stock companies) during a room sale (i.e., a period of declining stock).
We'll figure out how stock prices are formed on the stock market soon. See you next time!
#Head&Shoulder chart pattern in action
Head and shoulder definition: A simple head and shoulders top formation is characterized by a peak representing
the left shoulder, followed by a higher peak which is referred to as the head of the formation. A lower peak representing the right shoulder is found on the right‐hand side of the head. The head should be the highest peak in the formation. The neckline is a trendline that connects the troughs that lie on either side of the head. Necklines may be horizontal or inclined which in our case is inclined. In an inverted head and shoulders formation (also referred to as a head and shoulders bottom), the head is the lowest
trough within the formation.
Head and shoulder pattern completion: The head and shoulders formation is completed with a valid breakout of the neckline Until a valid penetration has occurred, the formation is regarded as merely tentative. But as you can see in our case the pattern is completed since we can see upside breakout of the chart pattern neckline.
Head and shoulder pattern target: The minimum one‐to‐one price objective or target for a head and shoulders top formation is simply the vertical distance between the head and the neckline projected downward from the neckline breakout level. For an inverted head and shoulders formation, the vertical distance is projected upward from the neckline breakout level. You can see this vertical line in the chart.
Head and shoulder pattern entry:
■■ Short at a break of the right shoulder’s uptrend line with a stop placed above the right shoulder or head (see Point 1 in Figure 13.9)
■■ Short at the peak of the right shoulder with a stop placed above the right shoulder or head, especially when there is a significant resistive confluence comprising of significant Fibonacci retracement levels, Floor Trader’s Pivot Point levels, and
psychologically important price levels associated with double and triple zeros
■■ Short at the right shoulder when it is testing the left shoulder’s resistance level, with a stop placed above the resistance level or head
■■ Short on a valid penetration of the neckline with a stop placed above the neckline, right shoulder, or head (see Point 2 in Figure 13.9)
■■ Short on a retest of the neckline after a valid penetration with a stop placed above the neckline, right shoulder, or head (see Point 3 in Figure 13.9)
■■ Short on the penetration of the price associated with the trough created by the retest action, with a stop placed above the trough, neckline, right shoulder, or head (see Point 4 in Figure 13.9)
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Source: the handbook of technical analysis by Mark Andrew Lim
Stock Company. Selling something that no one will buy piecemealSo, here we go. Start of the story here .
What next? How will he sell something that no one will buy in pieces?
He turns his company into a joint-stock company, which is a form of company organization that allows it to be split into shares. Our owner issues 1 million shares, that is, he sort of divides the company into 1 million pieces. Then he calculates how much his whole business is worth - let's say $1 billion. And if $1 billion divided by 1 million shares, you get $1,000. That's how he calculated the value of 1 share. Recall that our owner has decided to put only 25% of his business up for sale, that is, 250,000 shares. And if we multiply 250 thousand shares by the price of $1 thousand, we get $250 million in total - this is the value of the share of the company he plans to sell.
Now he has to decide: will he sell 25% of the shares to one or more buyers, or even an unlimited number of people. First, he was approached by one large investor who has $250 million to buy all 25% shares. But the investor shared with the owner a plan to grow the company and asked him to place his managers in high positions. The owner of the company didn't like it because he didn't want to lose control of the company, so the deal didn't go through. Then he was approached by several investors who promised him they would stay out of the company's business, but were willing to buy a 25% stake not for $250 million, but for only $200 million. That option did not suit the owner either. Then he decided this way: instead of negotiating with big buyers, I will offer my shares to anyone who is willing to pay 1 thousand dollars for 1 share. This offer is called IPO (initial public offering) . Remember this term, because you'll come across it quite often.
Our owner had agreed with the banks from which he borrowed money, that for a small commission they would sell his shares at $1,000 apiece to absolutely any buyer. But the first buyer asked the bank the question, "What's in it for me to own one share?" Through this question, we come to the point where we find out what owning stock gets us .
The bank answers the prospective buyer that:
- You will be able to manage the stock company by voting on matters of the general meeting of shareholders. The weight of your vote will be one in a million votes.
- You will be able to receive dividends if a majority of the general meeting of shareholders votes "yes" to pay dividends.
- If the company goes bankrupt, you will receive one millionth of its assets left over after all of the company's debts to banks have been paid.
The buyer decided he was being mocked and rejected the offer. After all, why should he have the right to vote if 1 his vote means little in the overall background. Why does he need dividends if they may not be assigned. Why would he need property that would be impossible to sell after bankruptcy.
But more about that in the next post.
What is a stock? Let me tell you a storyNow let's talk about what a stock is, why companies issue them, and why they attract investors.
To do this, imagine a story. Imagine a small shoe workshop with a single owner. Suppose he makes boots out of crocodile leather. His product is unique to the city and in demand, because these boots are very durable and comfortable. At this point, he can only produce one pair of boots a day, and the number of orders for boots is 2 pairs a day. To meet the demand of his customers, he hires an employee and buys twice as much crocodile leather and other necessary materials for the job. With what money? With all the profits previously accumulated. The workshop now meets the demand of two pairs of boots a day.
Later, the workshop receives a corporate order for 90 pairs of boots per month. In order to meet the new order, three more pairs of boots must be produced in addition to those two. But with what money to buy so many materials and hire three more employees? After all, even all of the previously accumulated profit is not enough for such a batch. In order not to miss out on a major customer, the workshop owner goes to the bank for a loan. The bank is happy to give him a loan secured by the workshop (which means that if the owner will not repay the loan, his workshop will be taken away). But all goes well, the owner hires three more workers, buys materials, and puts out five pairs of boots a day. With the proceeds, he pays the loan and interest.
Now, let's go back to that beautiful day when the shop received an order for 90 pairs. The owner could have declined the loan and waited for the accumulated profit, but to do so he would have had to negotiate with a potential buyer for a longer lead time for the entire batch, and that could have resulted in the loss of the order.
What it turns out: he needed the credit in order to ramp up production quickly, and thus the size of the business.
Taking advantage of the credit and constant demand, our workshop owner goes nationwide and becomes the most famous manufacturer of crocodile leather boots with many workshops all over the country. And a lot of people around him want to buy the successful business.
Then he starts thinking: on the one hand, he has a huge business that is profitable, and on the other hand, he has an opportunity to get money in exchange for workshops, stock of materials, employees' labor, business connections and reputation. In short, in exchange for everything he has created with his own hands and head, which is very difficult to sell individually.
He likes the idea, but in order to keep part of his business, he decides that he will sell only a share of his company - 25%. He did the math and realized that this money is enough for the rest of his life (and even to live another life).
What next? How does he sell something that no one will buy in pieces? Let’s continue next time.
The lifestyle of your savings, and why Big Mac?I've mentioned the word "risk" many times before, and it really is a very important word in the investment process.
Today I would like to focus on a risk that you should pay much attention to as a future investor: market risk, or in other words, the risk that you will have to sell the shares you bought cheaper than the price at which you bought them, and suffer a loss in doing so. You will face this risk all the time, which is absolutely normal, because at any time events can happen which will cause the value of the stock to fall.
It can be said that investing in stocks is a series of profitable and unprofitable operations. So don't get discouraged and pour ashes on your head if your first trades are unsuccessful. That's part of the process. Investing is not a one-time transaction to make a quick profit, it's a way of life for your savings.
Remember the fundamental and simple rule of investing - the expected return is roughly equal to the risk you take. So, when you place money in a bank deposit, the only risk you take is that your money will depreciate by the difference between the rise in prices and the deposit rate.
The easiest way to explain this is with Big Macs. Let's say you have the money to buy 100 Big Macs. But you don't spend it, you put it under your mattress. A year later, because of a price increase of, say, 7%, you can buy not 100, but 93 Big Macs with the money from under the mattress. Every time you put money "under the mattress," you reduce the purchasing power of your savings. To preserve it, you can put your money in a year's deposit at the bank. That way, in a year, you'll withdraw the original amount from the deposit, plus a profit in the form of interest. Even if prices go up, as in the last example, you can buy 99 Big Macs, not 93.
Why not 100? Because the interest rate on a deposit is usually less than the percentage increase in prices (that is, inflation ). In our example, it was 6% versus inflation of 7%.
If you choose not to keep money "under the mattress" and not to open a deposit, but to invest in stocks, then at the end of the year you can buy, for example, 150 or only 50 Big Macs, because you are dealing with a potentially more profitable and therefore more risky instrument.
This is how the fundamental law of investing works, let me remind you again: as much risk as possible profit.
Thanks to this law we can refine our formula: investing in stocks is buying a share of a company with the goal of getting a future profit from its sale and being aware of the risk of a possible loss. Awareness of the risk of possible loss is an obligatory variable of our formula, an obligatory ingredient of our investment recipe.
Awareness of the problem is already a big step towards its solution. It's impossible to completely eliminate risks, but with proper management their impact can be minimized.
So, after studying the entire series of posts, you will get the necessary knowledge and practical skills to:
- find shares of companies interesting for investment;
- evaluate the financial condition of companies;
- determine the conditions for buying stocks;
- determine the conditions for selling stocks;
- manage risks;
- take into account the results of your operations.
You will have a ready-to-use strategy that will always help you find the answer to what to do or not to do with the stock at the current moment in time. You will not have to chain yourself to the monitor and do it all your time. You won't spend any more time doing it than you do watching the news or social media. You will learn to think like a intelligent investor, and you certainly will become one, if you are prepared to open yourself up to a very interesting and fascinating field of knowledge - stock investing. I sincerely wish you success on this path!
Raising initial capital: 4 approaches, of which one is not goodLet's break down the thought from the previous post in more detail. Obviously, to buy stocks, you have to have money, and if you are determined to become an investor, get ready to open your piggy bank. If you don't have savings, however, don't despair, there are other options.
I suggest you look at the following 4 options for acquiring the finances to buy stocks :
- Reduce your current expenses
- Sell unnecessary assets
- Increase your regular income
- And the option I don't recommend using at the start is to borrow.
I immediately stipulate that it is your, and only your responsibility how to apply the knowledge gained - to use something of the proposed or to go another way. I do not insist on anything. Rather, I am sharing information, but the decision is up to you in any case.
My opinion - always start with reducing your current costs, because the funds you save now give you a chance to increase your wealth in the future through investing. Make it a rule to plan your purchases in advance and buy only what is on your list. Don't go to the store without a list, otherwise you will buy more than you really need.
Next. Look at your possessions. Make a list of what you can sell without compromising your financial and mental well-being. Let what you don't need now serve to increase your wealth in the future.
Increasing your regular income is probably the most time-consuming but feasible way to accumulate funds for investment. Many people are often faced with the problem of choosing between a job they love where they don't earn enough and a job they hate with a higher income or, even worse, a job they hate with a paltry income. In the latter two cases, I recommend becoming an active user of services that will help you find the job you want (but don't act in haste, don't quit a job you don't like right away). Remember our goal is to keep and increase our income, not lose it altogether. In the case of a job you love and don't make much money, think about how you can increase your income in your current job. Sometimes all you have to do is make up your mind and ask your employer for it. Even a small increase will help you start saving. And if you have both a job you love and a desired level of income, I congratulate you, you are truly lucky.
Moving on. Borrowing for investments is the riskiest option. I highly do not recommend it, especially at the beginning of your investing journey. You definitely should not take a loan from a bank or other financial institutions. The credit rate will only increase your costs, and the need to repay the loan every month will break your entire investment strategy.
If family, friends or acquaintances are willing to lend you money long-term and without interest, think about whether your lender is aware of the risks and whether you are aware of the risks associated with investing in stocks, and whether this person will demand the money back before the agreed upon deadline. Even if you have agreed on everything, write down all of the terms of such a private loan on paper, so it is easier to resolve any disputes.
I always insist that the investment is conscious, that you understand and are ready to bear the responsibility and risks. So if you have even the slightest doubt about the borrowing option - don't take it! Consider another option. Ideally - work out a step-by-step plan and accumulate the necessary amount of money gradually.
Investing is the ability to say "no" so that you can say "yes"Have a wonderful day, my dear friends!
Let's get acquainted. My name is Capy. Someday I will tell you my stunning life story, and how fate has tied me to investing. I can't quite believe it myself sometimes... But that's not what today is about.
Today I'm starting a series of posts to introduce you to my vision and strategy in the very multifaceted and insanely interesting topic of stock investing.
Let's start by figuring out why you should be an investor?
Many people think that investors are some kind of Wall Street wolves who trade stocks of companies and make unimaginable amounts of money on it. I'm sure there are those too. But, in fact, investing has long ceased to be the monopoly of the employees of banks, brokerage companies or big businessmen.
Investing is available to absolutely everyone who plans their wealth and has the basic knowledge obtained at university. Or aspires to learn this indomitable beast. This is the reason I started this blog: to help everyone who wants to understand and share my ready-made strategy that you can apply in the process of investing.
It's worth saying that every one of us has done the act of investing at least once in our lives, perhaps without even realizing it. For example, when placing money on a bank deposit (the well-known bank deposit), renting out real estate, opening a business or just learning. All these actions have one common formula: you give something away now in order to get it back in the future and, in addition, to make a profit.
When you rent out an apartment, you cannot live in it because you have given it to other people to use. But when the lease expires, you'll get your apartment back, plus a profit in the form of the rent you've been receiving all that time.
When you start a business, you put money into it so you can pay it back later through the proceeds. And, of course, you expect the returns to exceed the costs invested.
When you invest in education, you plan to use what you have learned to achieve something, whether it's getting a job or enriching your inner world.
It is the expectation of profit that is the main motivating factor for the investor and the main purpose of the investment.
If you give someone an apple and they give it back to you after a while, that's not an investment. And if you give someone an apple, and after some time you get two apples back - you are already an investor, because you made a profit in the form of an additional apple.
The upcoming series of posts will focus on one of the investment options - namely, investing in stocks of companies. I plan to teach you how to approach each trade wisely and in a measured way to keep you from engaging in short-term speculation that looks like a casino game.
Going back to our formula, a stock investment is a transfer of your money to a particular company in exchange for a stake in its business. The purpose of these actions is to make a profit in the future from the sale of the shares (in the case of buying cheaper and selling higher), or the second option - to receive dividends. Dividends are when the company shares with you a portion of the profits in proportion to your share in the business. But we will focus on the first option to make a profit, that is "buy cheaper - sell more expensive". And the dividends to consider as a nice bonus to this strategy.
I will publish a new post soon. Let's talk about approaches that will allow you to find funds for investment.
Difference Between Technical Analysis And Fundamental AnalysisHello Hello Traders ,
Please if you like the ideas, don't forget to support them with likes and comments.
Thank you very much.
Here we go ,
I want to talk to your about the differences between Fundamental analysis and Technical analysis .
Defination,
Coin analysis is trying to make various predictions by examining the crypto money market and the price graph of the crypto money analyzed. By performing coin analysis, investors can anticipate risks and opportunities. In this way, investors can invest at the right time.
If the price change in cryptocurrencies is analyzed correctly, taking into account environmental factors, it can make a profit in the changing and high-risk crypto money market. It depends on the luck factor that traders make profit or loss before analysis.
How is Fundamental Analysis Done?
There is no need for learning to do basic analysis. All of us who follow the market instantly can make fundamental analysis. Because what counts in fundamental analysis is research and attention. While doing the basic analysis, the economic situation of the global market, popular entrepreneurs and the point of view of the countries with strong economy are taken into account. At the same time, political competition in the world, the Coronavirus Pandemic and financial efficiency are also evaluated in the fundamental analysis process.
How is Technical Analysis Done?
If you want to do technical analysis, you need to know the charts. The sub-headings of technical analysis can be listed as; It is also necessary to have sufficient knowledge of terms such as support points, resistance points, ascending-descending trend, ascending channel, descending channel.
Step 1 ,
For technical analysis, it is necessary to do market research first. There are important cases in the world in terms of economic and social aspects. This situation affects the markets as well as the prices of cryptocurrencies. One of the most important points of technical analysis is to know the supply and demand balance well. If demand increases, the price of cryptocurrencies rises. However, if the demand decreases and the supply increases, this time there will be a decrease in prices.
Step 2 ,
Patterns are very important during technical analysis. Formations are formed by graphics. It helps us to determine the support and resistance points of cryptocurrencies with formations such as double top formation and double bottom formation. In this way, we can see the end or start point of a value. Thus, the downtrend or uptrend of cryptocurrencies occurs.
Step 3 ,
Another important rule when doing technical analysis is indicators. Thanks to the indicators, we can identify the momentum and support/resistance points of the cryptocurrency. Indicators showing the connection between the two-way movements show us in which direction the medium and short-term trend may continue.
Conclusion,
In order to properly analyze coin, it is necessary to examine many factors and developments regularly and carefully. Examining one of the factors can make the trader profit, but it is most important to minimize the risk, to evaluate all the factors simultaneously. Even the trader who invests by considering all the data can make a loss as a result of a sudden development in the market. Despite all the techniques and predictions, the cryptocurrency market, like any investment, includes risk factors.
I really hope it will be useful for you.
Make big profits!
Stage Analysis & Trailing StopsWhy Stage Analysis
Stage Analysis is the very first thing you need to get right or everything else will be unnecessary, according to Mark Minervini.
Based on his study 98% of all big winners, dating back from 1800s to current day have been in confirmed Stage 2 BEFORE they made their big move! This makes Stage Analysis a foundational knowledge for anyone who trades the market.
History of Stage Analysis
Stan Weinstein outlined the principles of Stage Analysis in his 1988 book, Stan Weinstein's Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets.
This classic text opened the door for many non-professionals to execute successful trading system based on his detailed description of the best prospects for long buys and short sale positions. However, his classic concepts have a far wider reach — it is a premise that gives the best time for a trader to enter and trade the market.
It divides market action by 4 segment (Stages) which analyzes prices dynamics over a continuous cycle that includes bottoms, breakouts, top peaks breakdowns and downtrend occurrences.
🟨 Case against Averaging Down - Stage AnalysisAveraging down is rejected by all big Market Wizards.
The problem is that the stock can always go another -90% down.
The example of SKLZ shows that after 19 consecutive times the stock decreased -20%, it no where near the average dollar price, if you buy same amount after each 20% decline.
In fact, it has to move +300% to get to break-even. How many of your stocks do that?
Do you see now, why probabilities are not in your favor.
PS if you think this is just a crappy company look at $GE in 2007-2009.
My crazy partner is Mr. Market!We are used to the fact that the world's most prominent investors are known for their outstanding deals, returns and stability of results over a long time horizon. Yes, all this is certainly a sign of excellence, but no investor has gained his popularity through books. The books he wrote.
This man created his writings back in the 1930s and 1940s, but they still inspire anyone who has taken the path of smart stock investing. You've probably guessed by now who we're talking about. It's the humble author of The Intelligent Investor and Warren Buffett's teacher, Benjamin Graham.
It's amazing that after many years, this book is still considered the bible of investing on the basis of fundamental analysis - Graham wrote such a thorough description of how a person investing in stocks should think. His insight into the market can be useful to anyone who is exposed to this chaotic environment.
To understand Graham's philosophy, imagine that the market is your business partner "Mr. Market." Every day he stops by your office to visit and offer you a deal on your mutual company stock. Sometimes he wants to buy your stock, sometimes he wants to sell his own. And each time he offers a price at random, relying only on his gut. When he panics and is afraid of everything, he wants to get rid of his shares. When he feels euphoric and blind faith in the future, he wants to buy your share. That's the kind of crazy partner you have. Why is he acting this way? According to Graham, this is the behavior of all investors who don't understand the real value of what they own. They jump from side to side and do it with the regularity of a "maniac" every day.
The task of the prudent investor is to understand the fundamental value of your business and just wait for another visit from the crazy Mr. Market. If he panics and offers to buy his stock at an extremely low price - take it and wish him luck. If he begs to sell him the stock and calls an unusually generous price - sell it and wish him luck.
Of course, after a while, it may turn out that Mr. Market was not bad at all and made a very profitable deal with you. But the fact is that on the long horizon of time his luck will be washed away by a series of stupid things he will inevitably do. As for you, rest assured that tomorrow you will meet another Mister. So, as Graham has taught us, is teaching us, and will continue to teach us - you just have to be ready for it. Understanding the fundamental value of the company, this meeting will bring you nothing but pleasure!