Market order or the hunger games of stock tradingThe previous parts of the post can be found at the links:
Part 1 - How is the share price formed on the stock exchange? We do it
Part 2 - Bid/Offer: The Yin and Yang of Stock Prices
So, let's continue. So why don't we ever see some orders in the order book?
Because such orders don't have a price, which means they can't be arranged in a book where all orders are sorted by price. This type of order is used by buyers or sellers who don't want to wait for a counter offer with a suitable price.
"But how can you buy or sell something without specifying a price?" - you ask. It turns out it's possible. When you put out an order without specifying a price, the order simply "eats up" the number of lots you need at the prices currently on the books. Such an order is called a " market order ". We can say that the most "hungry" investors who want to satisfy their "hunger" right now use the market order. Remember yourself: when you really want, for example, a cake, you won't stand at the counter and wait for the seller to set the price you want, you'll just buy the cake at the price that's valid at the moment.
So, let's imagine that someone sent the following order to the exchange: " to sell FB stocks in the volume of 20 lots". Such an order will not appear in the book, but it will "eat" all bids within 20 lots, starting with the most expensive ones.
In our example, there were a total of 15 lots left in the book, so the following concluded trades will be printed in the tape:
FB $115 5 lots
FB $100 10 lots
What will happen to the remaining market order of 5 lots (20-15) that couldn't be filled? The exchange will cancel the order for this remainder, as there are no counter offers in the book.
So, let's review what we learned in the current series of posts:
- For each company, the exchange maintains its own order book for buying and selling stocks;
- A buy order is called a "bid";
- A sell order is called an "offer";
- The order must contain the ticker (abbreviated name of the stock), the direction of the transaction (buy or sell), the price per share and the volume in lots;
- The lot size is set by the exchange. It may be equal to 1 share, 100 shares or some other quantity;
- All orders in the book are called "limit orders";
- There is a special type of orders, which are called "market orders". They have the following parameters: ticker, trade direction, volume in lots, and have no "price" parameter.
- The intersection of buy and sell orders by price creates a trade;
- The volume and price of a trade depends on how much volume was "eaten" in the counter offer and at what price;
- The trade is recorded in the tape. Each company has its own tape.
By the way, our book became empty because all limit orders were filled and no new ones came in. As a result, we have a tape of three trades. The trades are recorded in the tape according to when they were made:
FB $110 20 lots
FB $115 5 lots
FB $100 10 lots
So, when you see a flashing stock price somewhere, like in the broker's app, know that it's the last trade in the tape as of the current second. Or if you hear that Tesla stock has reached $2,000 a share, that means that there's a $2,000-a-share deal imprinted in the Tesla tape.
To show how the stock price has changed over time, a chart is made based on the prices of the trades and when they were made. At its core, a chart is a demonstration of how the stock tape has changed over time.
Knowing how to read a price chart is a basic skill that you will use as you invest. I will tell you how to read charts at our next meeting.
Analysis
Bid/Offer: The Yin and Yang of Stock PricesRead the first part of this post at the link: How is the share price formed on the stock exchange? We do it
So at what price and what volume will the deal eventually be made? To understand this, let's go back to the "price" parameter of the order.
When a buyer placed an order "to buy 25 lots at $115 a share", the exchange takes it as "to buy 25 lots at a price not more than $115 a share". That is the purchase price can be less than the price stated in the order, but not more.
And when the seller earlier submitted an order "to sell 20 lots at $110 a share", the exchange takes it as "to sell 20 lots at a price not less than $110 a share". That is, it is possible to sell at a price higher than that specified in the order, but not less.
Once again: buyers always put orders "buy at no more than such-and-such a price", and sellers always put orders "sell at no less than such-and-such a price".
So, we return to the situation with the crossing of prices. When the exchange detects a crossover, it begins to execute the order that has caused this crossover. In our case, it is an order for 25 lots at $115 per share. This order kind of "eats up" all sell orders that are on the way to the price of $115 (that is, everything cheaper than $115), until it reaches 25 lots.
Which orders were "eaten up" in our case? One single order to sell is 20 lots at $110 per share.
What was "eaten" is recorded as a buy and sell trade in what's called a tape. It's similar to the way a cash register punches a check with a price. The record looks like this:
FB $110 20 lots
However, we have a remainder after the trade is 5 lots, the remainder of those 25 at a price of $115. Since at this price (or lower) nothing can be "eaten", the order remains in the left page of the book until a suitable offer.
Let's see how the FB order book looks now, after the deal is done:
Let me note again that all orders in the book are sorted in descending order from top to bottom.
The concept of "book" is very useful for understanding how the exchange price is formed. In the past, when there were no electronic trading systems, there were so-called floor brokers, who used to collect and record prices and volumes of orders in a real book. Nowadays you may encounter alternative terms like Depth of Market (DOM), Level II, but they are all identical to the notion of an " order book ".
The orders to buy that we see in the order book are called " bids ", and the orders to sell are called " offers ". So, in our order book there are two bids and no offers. All bids and offers are called " limit orders " because they have a price limit.
But there's also a type of order that we will never see in the book. Why? I'll tell you in the next post.
How is the share price formed on the stock exchange? We do itYou already know that the stock exchange is a one-stop place to buy or sell stocks, whether you are a novice investor or a seasoned professional. But even if you don't trade stocks, you will still "come" to the stock exchange to find out stock prices.
Let's find out how the exchange price of a stock is formed. Regardless of what country the stock exchange is in, the rules for determining the price are similar for everyone. Let us understand how it works, as always, with the help of our imagination.
Imagine a large rack of books. Each book has a name on the cover: Apple, Facebook, Amazon, etc. Let's take one of the books, let's say Facebook, and open it. We will see only two pages, and they are both blank. On the left page we will record buyers' orders to buy shares, and on the right page we will record sellers' orders, respectively, to sell shares. So, every day the exchange, when it opens trading, essentially opens such a "book" and records every bid it receives.
What should be written in the order?
First of all, there must be an abbreviated name of the stock, or, in professional slang, the "ticker," to understand which book to get off the shelf. For example, Facebook shares have a ticker consisting of two letters FB, while Apple shares have four letters - AAPL.
Second, the order must indicate the direction of the transaction, i.e. "buy" or "sell". This is how the exchange understands whether to record the incoming information on the left or on the right page of the book.
Third, the order must indicate the price per share, so that the exchange can sort the orders in descending order of price from top to bottom.
Fourth, the order must specify the volume in lots, that is, how many lots of shares we want to buy or sell. To clarify: Shares on the exchange are not traded by the piece, but by the lot. The lot size is set by the exchange. One lot may be equal to one share, or a hundred, a thousand, or even ten thousand shares (depending on the specific share). This is really handy because the price of one share can be equal to, for example, the price of your computer (then 1 lot may be equal to 1 share), and sometimes 1 share may be worth as much as a box of matches (then 1 lot may be equal to a thousand shares). Why "may be"? The specific rules for determining the lot size depend on the laws of the country and the exchange itself. For example, on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the usual size of 1 lot is equal to 100 shares.
So, let's return to our example. Suppose we want to buy shares of FB at a price of $100 per share in the amount of 10 lots. Then the exchange will record the following on the left side of the FB book:
100$ 10
Then there is a seller who wants to sell FB stock at $110 per share in an amount of 20 lots. Then this is what the exchange will record in the right side of the book:
110$ 20
Then there is a buyer who wants to buy FB stocks at $115 per share in an amount of 25 lots. The entry on the left side of the FB book will look like this:
115$ 25
And now comes the interesting part.
Did you notice that the $115 price in the last buy order is higher than the single sell order of $110? That means the buyer is willing to make a deal at a price even higher than what the seller is offering. So at what price and what volume will the deal end up being made?
Please wait for the next post.
Picking rules - the Lynch methodBack in 1977, the still famous investment company Fidelity Investments entrusted the management of a small fund of $18 million to this very man. The next 13 years were impressive for the Magellan fund and its manager - the famous Peter Lynch. The fund's assets grew to $14 billion, more than doubling the average annual growth of the S&P500 stock index.
When he stopped actively managing assets, Peter shared his approach with the rest of us. Some of his thoughts inspired me to create my approach and may be useful to you as well.
1. The private investor has an objective advantage over institutional investors (e.g., funds) because he is more agile. He is not burdened by the need to coordinate his actions with the management of the company, and his purchase requests are easily satisfied by the market. Agreed, it's easier to buy for $1,000 than it is to buy for $1 billion. Thus, the private investor can catch prices that the big "players" will have a hard time getting.
2. Don't spend everything you have under your belt on stock investments. The trades will not be able to close "in the plus" just by your own volition. So first provide yourself with a financial safety cushion, a stable job and a place to live, and then start investing.
3. Admit to yourself: are you a patient person who is capable of making independent decisions, diving deep into analysis and soberly reacting to plus and minus changes? If not, practice, but on small volumes.
4. Never buy a company's stock if you can't explain what it does and can't talk about its financial performance. The stock market is no place for gambling. There are slot machines, etc., for that.
5. The company works for profit and grows because of it. So keep an eye on everything that affects profits. Evaluate the company not in monetary units, but in the number of profits.
6. Watch where the company invests its profits. If it's mostly capital investments that will probably make a profit someday, in the distant future - think about it. After all, the beautiful future as conceived may not come. If, on the other hand, the company is allocating its profits to buying its own stock, it means that management thinks the current stock price is attractive enough.
7. The success of the stock may be unrelated to the company's financial success. Beware of such investments.
8. A company's financial success may not be reflected in its stock price for a long time. However, the longer the period in question, the more direct the relationship. So if you select companies based on an analysis of financial performance, be prepared to make a long-term investment.
To this day, these thoughts help me look at assets consciously and not give in to spontaneous decisions.
What do you think of this approach?
I dream of entering the stock market. The question is: What for?Read the previous part of the post here .
Having received only denials, the owner of the workshop decides the following: it would be great if shares were sold and bought not in the offices of banks, but in one single place - the stock exchange. Then those who want to vote would be able to buy as many shares as they need votes. Those who want a discount will wait until the price on the stock exchange falls to an acceptable level for them. And those who bought one share would be able to sell it at any time at the exchange price. The owner likes this idea and decides to list his shares on the stock exchange.
Another term to remember is listing. Listing is the service of the stock exchange to allow the shares to be traded on the stock exchange.
Now the shares can be bought or sold in one place, simply by connecting to the stock exchange trading through brokerage companies. The banks, which have brokerage licenses, also liked it. The main thing is that now they do not have to convince clients to buy shares for dubious rights, you can just say that the price at the exchange is constantly changing, and if you buy shares at $ 1000 now (in the bank office), then a month later at the exchange you can sell them already at a higher price. This created a real stir around the company's shares, and they were bought up from banks at the IPO price - that is, at the original price of $1,000 per share.
A significant advantage for any investor is the ability to buy or sell shares quickly and easily. That is exactly the kind of opportunity stock exchanges provide. If there were no stock exchange, the owners of shares would have to look for buyers on their own. But now they have the opportunity to connect to the exchange and make a deal at any time.
As soon as the stock exchange started trading, the share price of the workshop came to life. This attracted new investors who tried to buy cheaper shares and sell at a higher price. Such investors include you and me.
So what we know so far:
- A company needs stock to sell a share of its business and get real money.
- Shares can only be issued by a public company.
- Shares give its owner rights: to vote, to receive agreed dividends, and to receive a share from a bankrupt company.
- The initial sale of shares to the public is called an IPO (initial public offering).
- During an IPO, shares are sold not on the stock exchange, but through brokers or banks.
- The first day of stock trading on the stock exchange is the completion of the IPO process.
- In order for the shares to be traded on the stock exchange, the company has to go through the listing procedure.
- It is only possible to buy shares on the stock exchange through a licensed broker.
- The exchange price is constantly changing during trading.
The workshop story may give the impression that we small investors are only being used to get money from us in exchange for unnecessary rights. However, it is important to understand that we are more interested in the opportunity to profit from the growth of the shares than in gaining formal rights. It is this desire that unites all shareholders of a company, whether you have one share or a million.
A joint-stock company can be compared to a hotel with many identical rooms. One share is one room. If the hotel is doing great and making a profit, investors will want to buy more rooms, and sellers will want to sell more rooms at a higher price. If the hotel performs poorly and makes a loss, then room owners will get rid of them (i.e. sell even at an unprofitable price to get money and find another hotel that is more attractive for investment).
The strategy I will share will be to find, figuratively, great hotels (in fact, joint stock companies) during a room sale (i.e., a period of declining stock).
We'll figure out how stock prices are formed on the stock market soon. See you next time!
#Head&Shoulder chart pattern in action
Head and shoulder definition: A simple head and shoulders top formation is characterized by a peak representing
the left shoulder, followed by a higher peak which is referred to as the head of the formation. A lower peak representing the right shoulder is found on the right‐hand side of the head. The head should be the highest peak in the formation. The neckline is a trendline that connects the troughs that lie on either side of the head. Necklines may be horizontal or inclined which in our case is inclined. In an inverted head and shoulders formation (also referred to as a head and shoulders bottom), the head is the lowest
trough within the formation.
Head and shoulder pattern completion: The head and shoulders formation is completed with a valid breakout of the neckline Until a valid penetration has occurred, the formation is regarded as merely tentative. But as you can see in our case the pattern is completed since we can see upside breakout of the chart pattern neckline.
Head and shoulder pattern target: The minimum one‐to‐one price objective or target for a head and shoulders top formation is simply the vertical distance between the head and the neckline projected downward from the neckline breakout level. For an inverted head and shoulders formation, the vertical distance is projected upward from the neckline breakout level. You can see this vertical line in the chart.
Head and shoulder pattern entry:
■■ Short at a break of the right shoulder’s uptrend line with a stop placed above the right shoulder or head (see Point 1 in Figure 13.9)
■■ Short at the peak of the right shoulder with a stop placed above the right shoulder or head, especially when there is a significant resistive confluence comprising of significant Fibonacci retracement levels, Floor Trader’s Pivot Point levels, and
psychologically important price levels associated with double and triple zeros
■■ Short at the right shoulder when it is testing the left shoulder’s resistance level, with a stop placed above the resistance level or head
■■ Short on a valid penetration of the neckline with a stop placed above the neckline, right shoulder, or head (see Point 2 in Figure 13.9)
■■ Short on a retest of the neckline after a valid penetration with a stop placed above the neckline, right shoulder, or head (see Point 3 in Figure 13.9)
■■ Short on the penetration of the price associated with the trough created by the retest action, with a stop placed above the trough, neckline, right shoulder, or head (see Point 4 in Figure 13.9)
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Source: the handbook of technical analysis by Mark Andrew Lim
Stock Company. Selling something that no one will buy piecemealSo, here we go. Start of the story here .
What next? How will he sell something that no one will buy in pieces?
He turns his company into a joint-stock company, which is a form of company organization that allows it to be split into shares. Our owner issues 1 million shares, that is, he sort of divides the company into 1 million pieces. Then he calculates how much his whole business is worth - let's say $1 billion. And if $1 billion divided by 1 million shares, you get $1,000. That's how he calculated the value of 1 share. Recall that our owner has decided to put only 25% of his business up for sale, that is, 250,000 shares. And if we multiply 250 thousand shares by the price of $1 thousand, we get $250 million in total - this is the value of the share of the company he plans to sell.
Now he has to decide: will he sell 25% of the shares to one or more buyers, or even an unlimited number of people. First, he was approached by one large investor who has $250 million to buy all 25% shares. But the investor shared with the owner a plan to grow the company and asked him to place his managers in high positions. The owner of the company didn't like it because he didn't want to lose control of the company, so the deal didn't go through. Then he was approached by several investors who promised him they would stay out of the company's business, but were willing to buy a 25% stake not for $250 million, but for only $200 million. That option did not suit the owner either. Then he decided this way: instead of negotiating with big buyers, I will offer my shares to anyone who is willing to pay 1 thousand dollars for 1 share. This offer is called IPO (initial public offering) . Remember this term, because you'll come across it quite often.
Our owner had agreed with the banks from which he borrowed money, that for a small commission they would sell his shares at $1,000 apiece to absolutely any buyer. But the first buyer asked the bank the question, "What's in it for me to own one share?" Through this question, we come to the point where we find out what owning stock gets us .
The bank answers the prospective buyer that:
- You will be able to manage the stock company by voting on matters of the general meeting of shareholders. The weight of your vote will be one in a million votes.
- You will be able to receive dividends if a majority of the general meeting of shareholders votes "yes" to pay dividends.
- If the company goes bankrupt, you will receive one millionth of its assets left over after all of the company's debts to banks have been paid.
The buyer decided he was being mocked and rejected the offer. After all, why should he have the right to vote if 1 his vote means little in the overall background. Why does he need dividends if they may not be assigned. Why would he need property that would be impossible to sell after bankruptcy.
But more about that in the next post.
What is a stock? Let me tell you a storyNow let's talk about what a stock is, why companies issue them, and why they attract investors.
To do this, imagine a story. Imagine a small shoe workshop with a single owner. Suppose he makes boots out of crocodile leather. His product is unique to the city and in demand, because these boots are very durable and comfortable. At this point, he can only produce one pair of boots a day, and the number of orders for boots is 2 pairs a day. To meet the demand of his customers, he hires an employee and buys twice as much crocodile leather and other necessary materials for the job. With what money? With all the profits previously accumulated. The workshop now meets the demand of two pairs of boots a day.
Later, the workshop receives a corporate order for 90 pairs of boots per month. In order to meet the new order, three more pairs of boots must be produced in addition to those two. But with what money to buy so many materials and hire three more employees? After all, even all of the previously accumulated profit is not enough for such a batch. In order not to miss out on a major customer, the workshop owner goes to the bank for a loan. The bank is happy to give him a loan secured by the workshop (which means that if the owner will not repay the loan, his workshop will be taken away). But all goes well, the owner hires three more workers, buys materials, and puts out five pairs of boots a day. With the proceeds, he pays the loan and interest.
Now, let's go back to that beautiful day when the shop received an order for 90 pairs. The owner could have declined the loan and waited for the accumulated profit, but to do so he would have had to negotiate with a potential buyer for a longer lead time for the entire batch, and that could have resulted in the loss of the order.
What it turns out: he needed the credit in order to ramp up production quickly, and thus the size of the business.
Taking advantage of the credit and constant demand, our workshop owner goes nationwide and becomes the most famous manufacturer of crocodile leather boots with many workshops all over the country. And a lot of people around him want to buy the successful business.
Then he starts thinking: on the one hand, he has a huge business that is profitable, and on the other hand, he has an opportunity to get money in exchange for workshops, stock of materials, employees' labor, business connections and reputation. In short, in exchange for everything he has created with his own hands and head, which is very difficult to sell individually.
He likes the idea, but in order to keep part of his business, he decides that he will sell only a share of his company - 25%. He did the math and realized that this money is enough for the rest of his life (and even to live another life).
What next? How does he sell something that no one will buy in pieces? Let’s continue next time.
The lifestyle of your savings, and why Big Mac?I've mentioned the word "risk" many times before, and it really is a very important word in the investment process.
Today I would like to focus on a risk that you should pay much attention to as a future investor: market risk, or in other words, the risk that you will have to sell the shares you bought cheaper than the price at which you bought them, and suffer a loss in doing so. You will face this risk all the time, which is absolutely normal, because at any time events can happen which will cause the value of the stock to fall.
It can be said that investing in stocks is a series of profitable and unprofitable operations. So don't get discouraged and pour ashes on your head if your first trades are unsuccessful. That's part of the process. Investing is not a one-time transaction to make a quick profit, it's a way of life for your savings.
Remember the fundamental and simple rule of investing - the expected return is roughly equal to the risk you take. So, when you place money in a bank deposit, the only risk you take is that your money will depreciate by the difference between the rise in prices and the deposit rate.
The easiest way to explain this is with Big Macs. Let's say you have the money to buy 100 Big Macs. But you don't spend it, you put it under your mattress. A year later, because of a price increase of, say, 7%, you can buy not 100, but 93 Big Macs with the money from under the mattress. Every time you put money "under the mattress," you reduce the purchasing power of your savings. To preserve it, you can put your money in a year's deposit at the bank. That way, in a year, you'll withdraw the original amount from the deposit, plus a profit in the form of interest. Even if prices go up, as in the last example, you can buy 99 Big Macs, not 93.
Why not 100? Because the interest rate on a deposit is usually less than the percentage increase in prices (that is, inflation ). In our example, it was 6% versus inflation of 7%.
If you choose not to keep money "under the mattress" and not to open a deposit, but to invest in stocks, then at the end of the year you can buy, for example, 150 or only 50 Big Macs, because you are dealing with a potentially more profitable and therefore more risky instrument.
This is how the fundamental law of investing works, let me remind you again: as much risk as possible profit.
Thanks to this law we can refine our formula: investing in stocks is buying a share of a company with the goal of getting a future profit from its sale and being aware of the risk of a possible loss. Awareness of the risk of possible loss is an obligatory variable of our formula, an obligatory ingredient of our investment recipe.
Awareness of the problem is already a big step towards its solution. It's impossible to completely eliminate risks, but with proper management their impact can be minimized.
So, after studying the entire series of posts, you will get the necessary knowledge and practical skills to:
- find shares of companies interesting for investment;
- evaluate the financial condition of companies;
- determine the conditions for buying stocks;
- determine the conditions for selling stocks;
- manage risks;
- take into account the results of your operations.
You will have a ready-to-use strategy that will always help you find the answer to what to do or not to do with the stock at the current moment in time. You will not have to chain yourself to the monitor and do it all your time. You won't spend any more time doing it than you do watching the news or social media. You will learn to think like a intelligent investor, and you certainly will become one, if you are prepared to open yourself up to a very interesting and fascinating field of knowledge - stock investing. I sincerely wish you success on this path!
Raising initial capital: 4 approaches, of which one is not goodLet's break down the thought from the previous post in more detail. Obviously, to buy stocks, you have to have money, and if you are determined to become an investor, get ready to open your piggy bank. If you don't have savings, however, don't despair, there are other options.
I suggest you look at the following 4 options for acquiring the finances to buy stocks :
- Reduce your current expenses
- Sell unnecessary assets
- Increase your regular income
- And the option I don't recommend using at the start is to borrow.
I immediately stipulate that it is your, and only your responsibility how to apply the knowledge gained - to use something of the proposed or to go another way. I do not insist on anything. Rather, I am sharing information, but the decision is up to you in any case.
My opinion - always start with reducing your current costs, because the funds you save now give you a chance to increase your wealth in the future through investing. Make it a rule to plan your purchases in advance and buy only what is on your list. Don't go to the store without a list, otherwise you will buy more than you really need.
Next. Look at your possessions. Make a list of what you can sell without compromising your financial and mental well-being. Let what you don't need now serve to increase your wealth in the future.
Increasing your regular income is probably the most time-consuming but feasible way to accumulate funds for investment. Many people are often faced with the problem of choosing between a job they love where they don't earn enough and a job they hate with a higher income or, even worse, a job they hate with a paltry income. In the latter two cases, I recommend becoming an active user of services that will help you find the job you want (but don't act in haste, don't quit a job you don't like right away). Remember our goal is to keep and increase our income, not lose it altogether. In the case of a job you love and don't make much money, think about how you can increase your income in your current job. Sometimes all you have to do is make up your mind and ask your employer for it. Even a small increase will help you start saving. And if you have both a job you love and a desired level of income, I congratulate you, you are truly lucky.
Moving on. Borrowing for investments is the riskiest option. I highly do not recommend it, especially at the beginning of your investing journey. You definitely should not take a loan from a bank or other financial institutions. The credit rate will only increase your costs, and the need to repay the loan every month will break your entire investment strategy.
If family, friends or acquaintances are willing to lend you money long-term and without interest, think about whether your lender is aware of the risks and whether you are aware of the risks associated with investing in stocks, and whether this person will demand the money back before the agreed upon deadline. Even if you have agreed on everything, write down all of the terms of such a private loan on paper, so it is easier to resolve any disputes.
I always insist that the investment is conscious, that you understand and are ready to bear the responsibility and risks. So if you have even the slightest doubt about the borrowing option - don't take it! Consider another option. Ideally - work out a step-by-step plan and accumulate the necessary amount of money gradually.
Investing is the ability to say "no" so that you can say "yes"Have a wonderful day, my dear friends!
Let's get acquainted. My name is Capy. Someday I will tell you my stunning life story, and how fate has tied me to investing. I can't quite believe it myself sometimes... But that's not what today is about.
Today I'm starting a series of posts to introduce you to my vision and strategy in the very multifaceted and insanely interesting topic of stock investing.
Let's start by figuring out why you should be an investor?
Many people think that investors are some kind of Wall Street wolves who trade stocks of companies and make unimaginable amounts of money on it. I'm sure there are those too. But, in fact, investing has long ceased to be the monopoly of the employees of banks, brokerage companies or big businessmen.
Investing is available to absolutely everyone who plans their wealth and has the basic knowledge obtained at university. Or aspires to learn this indomitable beast. This is the reason I started this blog: to help everyone who wants to understand and share my ready-made strategy that you can apply in the process of investing.
It's worth saying that every one of us has done the act of investing at least once in our lives, perhaps without even realizing it. For example, when placing money on a bank deposit (the well-known bank deposit), renting out real estate, opening a business or just learning. All these actions have one common formula: you give something away now in order to get it back in the future and, in addition, to make a profit.
When you rent out an apartment, you cannot live in it because you have given it to other people to use. But when the lease expires, you'll get your apartment back, plus a profit in the form of the rent you've been receiving all that time.
When you start a business, you put money into it so you can pay it back later through the proceeds. And, of course, you expect the returns to exceed the costs invested.
When you invest in education, you plan to use what you have learned to achieve something, whether it's getting a job or enriching your inner world.
It is the expectation of profit that is the main motivating factor for the investor and the main purpose of the investment.
If you give someone an apple and they give it back to you after a while, that's not an investment. And if you give someone an apple, and after some time you get two apples back - you are already an investor, because you made a profit in the form of an additional apple.
The upcoming series of posts will focus on one of the investment options - namely, investing in stocks of companies. I plan to teach you how to approach each trade wisely and in a measured way to keep you from engaging in short-term speculation that looks like a casino game.
Going back to our formula, a stock investment is a transfer of your money to a particular company in exchange for a stake in its business. The purpose of these actions is to make a profit in the future from the sale of the shares (in the case of buying cheaper and selling higher), or the second option - to receive dividends. Dividends are when the company shares with you a portion of the profits in proportion to your share in the business. But we will focus on the first option to make a profit, that is "buy cheaper - sell more expensive". And the dividends to consider as a nice bonus to this strategy.
I will publish a new post soon. Let's talk about approaches that will allow you to find funds for investment.
Difference Between Technical Analysis And Fundamental AnalysisHello Hello Traders ,
Please if you like the ideas, don't forget to support them with likes and comments.
Thank you very much.
Here we go ,
I want to talk to your about the differences between Fundamental analysis and Technical analysis .
Defination,
Coin analysis is trying to make various predictions by examining the crypto money market and the price graph of the crypto money analyzed. By performing coin analysis, investors can anticipate risks and opportunities. In this way, investors can invest at the right time.
If the price change in cryptocurrencies is analyzed correctly, taking into account environmental factors, it can make a profit in the changing and high-risk crypto money market. It depends on the luck factor that traders make profit or loss before analysis.
How is Fundamental Analysis Done?
There is no need for learning to do basic analysis. All of us who follow the market instantly can make fundamental analysis. Because what counts in fundamental analysis is research and attention. While doing the basic analysis, the economic situation of the global market, popular entrepreneurs and the point of view of the countries with strong economy are taken into account. At the same time, political competition in the world, the Coronavirus Pandemic and financial efficiency are also evaluated in the fundamental analysis process.
How is Technical Analysis Done?
If you want to do technical analysis, you need to know the charts. The sub-headings of technical analysis can be listed as; It is also necessary to have sufficient knowledge of terms such as support points, resistance points, ascending-descending trend, ascending channel, descending channel.
Step 1 ,
For technical analysis, it is necessary to do market research first. There are important cases in the world in terms of economic and social aspects. This situation affects the markets as well as the prices of cryptocurrencies. One of the most important points of technical analysis is to know the supply and demand balance well. If demand increases, the price of cryptocurrencies rises. However, if the demand decreases and the supply increases, this time there will be a decrease in prices.
Step 2 ,
Patterns are very important during technical analysis. Formations are formed by graphics. It helps us to determine the support and resistance points of cryptocurrencies with formations such as double top formation and double bottom formation. In this way, we can see the end or start point of a value. Thus, the downtrend or uptrend of cryptocurrencies occurs.
Step 3 ,
Another important rule when doing technical analysis is indicators. Thanks to the indicators, we can identify the momentum and support/resistance points of the cryptocurrency. Indicators showing the connection between the two-way movements show us in which direction the medium and short-term trend may continue.
Conclusion,
In order to properly analyze coin, it is necessary to examine many factors and developments regularly and carefully. Examining one of the factors can make the trader profit, but it is most important to minimize the risk, to evaluate all the factors simultaneously. Even the trader who invests by considering all the data can make a loss as a result of a sudden development in the market. Despite all the techniques and predictions, the cryptocurrency market, like any investment, includes risk factors.
I really hope it will be useful for you.
Make big profits!
Stage Analysis & Trailing StopsWhy Stage Analysis
Stage Analysis is the very first thing you need to get right or everything else will be unnecessary, according to Mark Minervini.
Based on his study 98% of all big winners, dating back from 1800s to current day have been in confirmed Stage 2 BEFORE they made their big move! This makes Stage Analysis a foundational knowledge for anyone who trades the market.
History of Stage Analysis
Stan Weinstein outlined the principles of Stage Analysis in his 1988 book, Stan Weinstein's Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets.
This classic text opened the door for many non-professionals to execute successful trading system based on his detailed description of the best prospects for long buys and short sale positions. However, his classic concepts have a far wider reach — it is a premise that gives the best time for a trader to enter and trade the market.
It divides market action by 4 segment (Stages) which analyzes prices dynamics over a continuous cycle that includes bottoms, breakouts, top peaks breakdowns and downtrend occurrences.
🟨 Case against Averaging Down - Stage AnalysisAveraging down is rejected by all big Market Wizards.
The problem is that the stock can always go another -90% down.
The example of SKLZ shows that after 19 consecutive times the stock decreased -20%, it no where near the average dollar price, if you buy same amount after each 20% decline.
In fact, it has to move +300% to get to break-even. How many of your stocks do that?
Do you see now, why probabilities are not in your favor.
PS if you think this is just a crappy company look at $GE in 2007-2009.
My crazy partner is Mr. Market!We are used to the fact that the world's most prominent investors are known for their outstanding deals, returns and stability of results over a long time horizon. Yes, all this is certainly a sign of excellence, but no investor has gained his popularity through books. The books he wrote.
This man created his writings back in the 1930s and 1940s, but they still inspire anyone who has taken the path of smart stock investing. You've probably guessed by now who we're talking about. It's the humble author of The Intelligent Investor and Warren Buffett's teacher, Benjamin Graham.
It's amazing that after many years, this book is still considered the bible of investing on the basis of fundamental analysis - Graham wrote such a thorough description of how a person investing in stocks should think. His insight into the market can be useful to anyone who is exposed to this chaotic environment.
To understand Graham's philosophy, imagine that the market is your business partner "Mr. Market." Every day he stops by your office to visit and offer you a deal on your mutual company stock. Sometimes he wants to buy your stock, sometimes he wants to sell his own. And each time he offers a price at random, relying only on his gut. When he panics and is afraid of everything, he wants to get rid of his shares. When he feels euphoric and blind faith in the future, he wants to buy your share. That's the kind of crazy partner you have. Why is he acting this way? According to Graham, this is the behavior of all investors who don't understand the real value of what they own. They jump from side to side and do it with the regularity of a "maniac" every day.
The task of the prudent investor is to understand the fundamental value of your business and just wait for another visit from the crazy Mr. Market. If he panics and offers to buy his stock at an extremely low price - take it and wish him luck. If he begs to sell him the stock and calls an unusually generous price - sell it and wish him luck.
Of course, after a while, it may turn out that Mr. Market was not bad at all and made a very profitable deal with you. But the fact is that on the long horizon of time his luck will be washed away by a series of stupid things he will inevitably do. As for you, rest assured that tomorrow you will meet another Mister. So, as Graham has taught us, is teaching us, and will continue to teach us - you just have to be ready for it. Understanding the fundamental value of the company, this meeting will bring you nothing but pleasure!
Price is what you pay, but value is what you getWarren Buffett is the most successful stock investor in the history of the world. Of course, which we know now. "The Oracle of Omaha" - that's what fans of his "magical instinct" call Buffett. But is that the point?
As an 11-year-old child, little Warren was inspired by the possibilities of the stock market and invited his sister to participate in his first investment. These were preferred shares of Cities Service. The sister agreed to take the risk and Warren bought 3 shares at $38.25. But then, the wave of enthusiasm turned to disappointment and guilt - the shares fell to $27. Buffett's first investment "enterprise" lost 29% of the amount of investments that were borrowed. We can only imagine how the young investor felt at that moment, but I think this feeling is familiar to many: positive expectations clashed with the harsh reality of the stock market. Warren didn't sell shares. But when the price for them reached $40, he did it instantly. Apparently, considering this whole undertaking a mistake. The income was 4.6%, the sister received her money back. Everything worked out. Surprisingly, Cities Service's share price rose to $202 a few days later. Or +428%, Warren!
The entire subsequent history of Warren Buffett confirms that he drew the right conclusions from the experience of his childhood. He realized that the price on the stock exchange may not reflect the value of the company itself. Buffett began to study accounting, the principles of fundamental analysis of enterprises, the ideas of Benjamin Graham. This allowed him to develop an approach that consisted in determining the real value of the company, different from the one that we see on the stock exchange.
"Price is what you pay, but value is what you get".
From myself I will add: and if the value is higher than the price - such an investment is considered reasonable.
In the chart above, the price history of Buffett's main holding company, Berkshire Hathaway . As well as the S&P500 index. As you can see, his company "overtakes" the index, which means it shows much better performance than the average value of 500 US companies.
Perhaps, in addition to deep analysis of the companies' business, Buffett's unique investor instinct helps, I don't know. But the fact that he is a real Wizard of our time is an indisputable fact for me.
Fundamental analysis in cryptoThrough fundamental analysis , we can try to detect the authentic and objective value of cryptocurrencies in spite of their market price.
Through these techniques, we can assess whether a cryptocurrency is undervalued or overvalued, and we can detect a trading opportunity.
With fundamental analysis , traders evaluate and study what can affect the price of a security, such as external factors or events. This type of analysis takes advantage of tools like periodic financial statements, financial ratios, economic forecasts and other types
of additional information that can affect the value of a security.
There are different approaches to fundamental analysis that analyse micro and macroeconomic variables in different ways:
1. Top-down approach: through this approach, the trader analyses macroeconomic variables first and then microeconomic variables. Global information is taken in first, followed by more detailed and specific values and variables addressed. With this approach, the trader looks at the world economic situation, and then looks more at the most economically attractive countries, along with the sectors with the most potential, and within them, chooses which ones are most convenient to invest in.
2. Bottom-Up approach: this approach is the opposite of the previous one: first the trader chooses companies with growth potential, analyses the sector they operate in and then the economic situation of their countries; the overall global economic situation is the last thing to be analysed.
THE ADVANTAGES:
This approach allows the investor to collect and analyse information external to the markets but that might still influence prices. This way, the investor has a clearer vision of the reality of the market.
THE DISADVANTAGES:
The trader using fundamental analysis needs more thorough knowledge and experience of accounting, business and, in the specific, the sector of interest.
Moreover, investment terms with a fundamental analysis are longer because it requires more studying and background with respect to other analytical tools, like technical one.
It can also be outweighed by chance factors, such as physical disasters affecting commodity prices and companies in general. In general, markets can also be surprised by unexpected changes in economic and political scenarios.
In the specific case of crypto markets, fundamental analysis can be used to analyse the exterior components that can affect cryptocurrencies.
Fundamental analysis can be carried out by looking at its use cases or community, but also at the team behind every specific crypto project, something that tells a lot about its
overvaluation or undervaluation.
Indeed, in the case of crypto markets, there are no financial statements, and therefore they cannot be evaluated as normal financial assets. Most cryptocurrencies are still in the
developing stage and they do not have a lot of real-world applications; they rely mostly on miners, users and, of course, developers.
It can be of great importance given that crypto markets are relatively more volatile and less stable than others, and due to their irregular situation investors react quickly to exogenous factors. These factors can vary and go from regulatory pressures to simple tweets - take Elon Musk as an example.
Fundamental analysis can indeed help comprehend the fair value of crypto assets - data about this can be found on different websites, such as Reddit or Telegram. The use of technology is of utter importance.
The investor can assess the usability of the adoption of the cryptocurrency he's interested in, but this tool can also be used to study how governments value cryptocurrencies and whether they want to implement new regulatory policies about it. We can also identify the progress that it's being made in terms of technology, such as how the activity of cryptocurrency is developing, along with its software or media coverage - all these factors contribute to
increasing the crypto asset's value.
From a psychological point of view, it can also help the investor trade with more confidence, knowing that a thorough analysis has been carried out. When the analysis is done daily, it
can help you develop a finer investment strategy.
In terms of financial metrics, what can be used is:
Market capitalisation: the investor can look at the total market worth of cryptocurrency, which indicates whether there is space for growth. To get that, you multiply the current price per coin by its supply.
Liquidity, or how easy it is to buy or sell the asset. A liquid market is a competitive market and is usually favoured by investors, also because it entails a lower bid-ask spread.
Volume:
it spurs liquidity because it is telling of how much money has been exchanged for a certain asset.
Fundamental analysis usually prioritises the assessment of transaction values. If the transaction value is consistently high, it means that the cryptocurrency is in steady circulation.
Fees:
they reflect the demand on the blockchain. Every cryptocurrency can have its own transaction fee.
The assessment of the fees paid over various periods gives the
trader an idea of how secure the crypto asset is.
Supply mechanisms:
general microeconomics state that when supply is low and demand is high, price rises. A general belief for cryptocurrencies is that when supply runs out, the price will rise (this is, for example, a general prediction of Bitcoin holders). On the other hand, investors can also use project metrics for their fundamental analysis:
Whitepaper:
it is a technical document outlining the purpose and operation of the
project. It should comprise the blockchain technology solutions, the use cases for the currency, the planned features and upgrades, sale and team information, and tokenomics (the factors that impact the tokens' use and value).
The team:
crypto teams are easily accessible to assess nowadays so that the investor can learn more about them and their credibility.
The competitors:
the investor can conduct an analysis of the crypto assets; competitors. If there are other cryptos which are more widely adopted or valuable, maybe it is best to back off from the item of interest.
Last but not least, important instruments when evaluating cryptos through fundamental analysis are Blockchain metrics or On-chain metrics. The rising popularity of blockchain
has made sure that lots of different types of information could become extremely popular, such as the number of active users, total transactions and transaction value.
There are three fundamental metrics in this case:
1. Hash Rate :
this is a measure of the mining machine's ability to conduct hashing computations in an efficient way.
The hash rate also determines the profitability of the miner, as it indicates the likelihood that a block will be mined, and, indirectly, the chance of receiving the block reward. An investor should look at cryptos with a more extensive network because they are more resistant to attacks or data manipulation.
2. Status and Active Addresses:
active addresses measure the number of dynamic blockchain addresses over a period of time. They are helpful in comparing the growth or decline of the activity or interest in the coin or token. The investor can also get to
the active address through the computation of the total number of unique addresses over time (and a comparison of the results).
3. Transaction values : they can be determined for the assessment of the regular circulation of the crypto asset. It indicates how much money was exchanged on a given period, and therefore, the number of transactions.
The 3 TYPES OF CHART YOU MUST KNOW | Trading Basics
Hey traders,
In this educational video, we will discuss 3 different chart types:
range bar chart,
line chart
candlestick chart.
I will explain to you the difference between them and will teach you why they are important.
❤️Please, support this video with like and comment!❤️
Correlation between FX and Equities! (Chicken or the Egg?)Which came first, the chicken or the egg?
Traders all over the globe are constantly looking for an edge, something that's going to give them an extra indication on market directional movements prior to them unfolding. I know from personal experiences and from chatting people at the firm that many traders lean towards finding correlation between the equities market and the FX market. There are a lot of analysts out there that say the equities market is what moves the FX market, and in return there are a lot of people that say the FX market is what moves the equities market.
So, which one is it?
Reality is will never know. There have been many of times where the FX market and shows clear indication of direction and then about a day later or a few hours later we have the equities follow suit. For example the RBA's recent decision to hike interest rates by .25% instead of 0.5% sent the Aussie dollar down, but when you move over to the AUS200 or look at General Equities in the ASX, you'll see that they had their biggest day in 2.5 years.
Then there are times, and this is more into day trading, where the indices in the equities movements tend to correlate well moving into the FX markets.
So there is evidence to support both sides. Not ideal.
It goes without saying that correlation between equities and FX is slowly starting to fade as volumes kick up since we are in the technologically advanced era. But, what is or was the correlation and how does it work?
The basic theory (aged) is that when equity markets rise, confidence in that specific country grows well, leading to an inflow of funds from foreign investors. Therefore, equities go up, FX value goes up. It's simple supply and demand when you look at it. If the equities are going up and you're a foreign investor and you want to buy into those equities, it creates demand for holding, let's say, the US dollar if I wanted to buy into the S&P 500.
On the flip side, when the equity markets are falling. Then confidence falters, causing investors to convert their invested funds back to their own currencies outside of that country.
This is a general theory and I don't recommend basing any of your trading decisions on this, because if you actually have a look at the charts and the correlation, you'll notice that recently it's not been too hot. While you do get a general directional bias, one tends to move before the other and they tend to be quite random in which one goes first. If you have the ability or the skill to be able to work out when something is correlating and when something isn't, then for sure I think you'll be able to find an edge in the market trading some kind of correlation between equities and FX.
One correlation I have seen to be quiet useful in recent times is the S&P 500 And the Nikkei. Although in the Asian session the Nikkei is open in the S&P 500 isn't. Usually you see the S&P move and the Nikkei follow suit. Keep an eye on that correlation and tell me if you find any patterns.
As a whole, trading correlations can give you an edge in the market. It can provide you with valuable information when it comes to trading, whether you are trading FX or trading Equities. But it's not as simple as it seems. It will take more diving and understanding the markets on a deeper level to know when their correlating and to know when to ignore.
I hope you guys have enjoyed this article. If so, please give us a like leave and a comment. It does help the post a fair bit and I'll see you next week for some more content. Happy Trading!
-Jordon Mellor
Analyzing with PrecisionWhen it comes to price action trading, price analysis is at the foundation of our trading methodology. This analysis dictates all our eventual actions in trading. So seeing that price analysis is at the core of the price action trader's trading, we want to assure that we analyze with as much precision as we can. So how is that done? Let me explain how I go about making sure my price analysis is as precise as possible. To begin with, it starts with a "state-of-mind". A clear mind that can notice the subtle hints in price that sway our analysis. In order to achieve this state-of-mind, one must understand what a "hasty" and "impatient" mind is in comparison to a "calm" and "patient" mind. The impatient mind is easy to replicate. Try breathing with fast and short bursts; similiar to the breathing pattern one gets when sprinting. Notice the impatience in the mind.That although seems sharp, lacks the serenity in the mind that one has when they are not sprinting. On the other hand, the calm and patient mind can be glimpsed through remembering what your mind feels like on a Sunday morning, in which you have no work, scheduled engagements or activities you must attend to throughout the entire day. This serenity that you experience is the patient mind you want to adopt when analyzing price. With this state-of-mind comes an effortless yet powerful foundation which allows one to analyze with precision. It's quite counter intuitive that precision comes with such relaxation. So how do I acquire this skill you ask? Well, it comes with practice. If the ability we wish to achieve is a relaxed mind when analyzing, all we have to do is "take our time" when trading. However, this is easier said than done. The markets, especially on the lower time frames, tends to activate the "impatient mind". Where we are analyzing while literally having the same mental state as when we're sprinting. Are breathing shortens and speeds up in repetition. Breaking this habit may take time. But if practiced, anyone can achieve a patient mind whilst analyzing price. Start by changing your eating habits. Most of us tend to finish our meals in 5-10 minutes. An outcome of our busy lives and also a great example of carrying over our impatient minds into moments of the day when relaxation should come naturally. Begin making it a habit to chew your food 50 times before swallowing. As you slow down the pace in which you eat, notice the sense of serenity and calmness in the mind. Compare it to the quality of the mind when eating fast. There should be an obvious difference. After 3 days of implementing this habit, slow down other aspects of your daily activities to acquire the same effect on the mind. You'll begin to notice the connection between the mind and speed of activity. If you hurry the activity, the mind will follow. If you slow down the activity, the mind will slow down and become more relaxed, patient and serene. Upon testing this correlation and becoming more adapt to it, try it on your price analysis. Take your time with your analysis. Slow down your analysis. If time doesn't allow, decrease the pairs that you analyze or trade the higher time frames. If you do, you'll begin noticing the subtle hints in price analysis that perhaps were hidden from you while you adopted an impatient mind.
I hope this helps!
Have a great day!
Ken
Bitcoin Vs Ethereum 2.0 ComparisonHey mates! Please be sure to advise which of these products you think will have the most alpha. If shared, please advise the timeframe you are thinking! (1year? 10years?)
It is the clash of the titans, and my last article that provided the hard #'s got a great deal of positive traction in the comments, but I did get some DM hate from some Bitcoin maxi's. Please let me know what you think I am missing in my comparison so the whole TradingView community can learn from your wealthy of knowledge.
Emotions aside, and Maxi agenda's muted - lets get logical.
Bitcoin:
#1 Myth B itcoin is protection against inflation
-->Worse inflation in decades & the price crashes
#2 Myth A supply cap in Bitcoin makes it scarce
--> **Bitcoin is itself inflationary for another 100 years**
#3 Myth Bitcoin is a store of wealth
--> Newly minted Bitcoins are continually sold to cover operating costs while going directly against ESG Goals (Constant Selling Pressure)
#4 Myth Bitcoin is safe
-->For $13 Billion Dollars a state sponsor can launch a 51% attack against it.
-->(A single aircraft carrier cost less than that)
-->A Quantum computer can hack any BTC wallet
**To fix Bitcoin (POS) it would take years & create yet another fork destroying its value**
A fork would have to be made, because the miners make a lot of money (Cost about $7k per token mined) dumping the coins onto the maxis. This is a constant selling pressure that prevents it from ever being a true store of value. The tokenomics are not entirely broken(unless you can not forgive all the coal burned in North Korea & China to mine BTC), but it is not going to be the best performer of all.
Ethereum:
#1 Benefit: (post-merge) Ethereum is POS
-->Staking encourages long-term passive yield (hodling for yield)
-->ESG Friendly, 99.5% more efficient than Bitcoin
#2 Benefit: Ethereum is deflationary
-->Every block will burn ETH, and rewards are slashed by 90%
-->Every Dex swap, NFT mint, transaction will lead to ever more scarcity
-->For the next 100 Years BTC will inflate supply while ETH deflates supply
-->Deflationary prices rise in BP*, Inflationary prices drop in BP
#3 Benefit: Ethereum is only improving while Bitcoin development continues to be stale
-->Eth has 220 core developers
-->Btc has 103 core developers
-->Thousands of additional projects are being built on-top of ETH (the next APPL/AMZN)
-->Transaction speeds and cost will improve with 'sharding'
#4 Benefit: It is MUCH safer than BTC
-->Slashing prevents validators from acting malicious
-->BTC is susceptible to 51% attacks
*buying power
SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN TO ME?
I was screaming "back up the truck" when ETH dipped below $1k to long (I put 100% of my 401k into the product at that point, coupled with all my spot holdings being ETH)
Many ask if they missed the long? - I say this is only the genesis to generational wealth
I recommend joining me in being a validator. Get some passive yield in the most safe deflationary asset in crypto. Eth will fundamentally reward being a long-term investor which will be very attractive to institutions. This, coupled with ESG benefits and the fact ETH has actual utility will make this a product that a decade from now will be in many 401k products, for auto-biweekly deposits.
The miners have an agenda , when you hear 'oh its sooo green, volcano's power it' just know that a guy in Sweden handcranking a windmill to mine is hardly the norm. Coal burners powered it for years, and will continue to do so, and there is no amount of code that can fix this waste. Just because 20% is nuclear powered, does not mean that power could have been used elsewhere to drive down energy cost for others. People in Europe and France right now are about to get their largest energy bill in history this winter. Bitcoin POW is essentially broken long term, as they can not fix it to POS as it will hardfork again because the miners make a fortune dumping the newly minted (inflation) coins on new entrants creating a constant selling pressure. Bitcoin is a granddaddy relic. The myspace/AOL of crypto.
Please let me know what you think brother!
I am not a bitcoin hater, the price may rise, but I think the alpha is in ETH.
Bitcoin has been a huge blessing to me, but the people that purchased coins at $60k are not vibing with 'store-of-value' right now. The product is only worth what it is denominated in Fiat USD.
Why do people hate fiat? Inflation.
What is Bitcoin fundamentally for another 100 years? Supply Inflation
"But Zen! Your wrong! Because we know the max supply of coins the new minted coins are all priced in!!" - if this were the case the price would not be wildly volatile. Another Myth from the Peter Schiff of Bitcoin - that salesman Michael Saylor. ..or as he says 'missionary'.
It really has 'cult-like' vibes hearing that, be a critical thinker and consider generational wealth in ETH.
Interested in Learning More? Click on the chart below for an in-depth comparison:
Confirm Fundamental Analysis With The Olympus CloudWe used the unfortunate global environment to pinpoint natural gas as a trading opportunity in early 2022. We then used the Olympus Cloud to define entries and exits.
When we are trading on a longer term time frame, such as the daily, and we are confident our fundamental analysis is on point, we will risk up to 4 times more (5-8%) than we do in our high frequency trading (2%).
In these trades, we required the Olympus Cloud to indicate a higher swing low than the previous low combined with a confirmed bull cloud transition -- it's as simple as that. Our stop loss was under the cloud, and our targets were 2R, and 5R respectively.
As you can see in the data section below this post, our commodity account has grown by over 35% YTD, with 12% in additional gains currently open. The trade accuracy was 80% with an astonishing profit factor of over 9 -- meaning we gained 9 times our risk. Of course, if we had gone all in, these trades could have earned up to 80%, but had the trades not worked out we would have taken huge uncontrolled losses. When you are trading with proper risk management, you will not earn as much, but you will keep your profit margins in check and won't suffer massive losses that are hard to recover from if the trade does not go in your favor.