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Guide to Fundamental Analysis in Crypto WorldLet's consider a very important topic of fundamental analysis for cryptocurrencies. If we talk about traditional markets the fundamental analysis takes into account the company's financial statement and macroeconomic climate, but in case of cryptocurrencies this information is unavailable because the lack of the publicity. As a result the technical analysis role in crypto world is more significant, but applying the FA you can significantly improve your trading results. Here is 7 areas which should be analyzed to apply complex approach. 1. ROADMAP AND WHITEPAPER. This point is most significant for the altcoins. The most reliable projects have a very serious development plan, every step should be explained in details in the roadmap and whitepaper. If it's not everything good with it, the project could be just scam. 2. MARKET CAPITALISATION. It is simple the coin quantity multiplied by the current market price of one coin. It is widely known that the lower market cap associated with the higher potential price growth. 3. VOLUME. If the coin has a low volume traded the huge manipulations could take a place in the market. The coin should be represented in the largest cryptocurrency exchanges it increases the probability that the corresponding project is not a scam. 4. COIN SUPPLY. Here we should know about if the coin supply restricted or not. If it is restricted the increasing demand pushes the prices higher. 5. FOUNDERS. The projects with a great potential is driven by founders and developers which have already realized some successful projects. In the opposite case it is probably scam. 6. DOMINANCE. On TradingView you can find the market dominance of BTC, USDT, ETH and Altcoins. This is the demonstration of the capital flow between different cryptocurrencies. For example if the BTC dominance decreased and Altcoin dominance increased the Altcoin's prices are not so significantly affected by the Bitcoin price changes. 7. NEWS. This is the most important part of FA, especially for the large cryptocurrencies. Thus the positive news push the price higher, while negative one entail dumps.
Education
by Skyrexio
2
Strategy on how to trade Lockheed MartinHey guys! Hope this analysis finds you having an incredible week, and ready for an even better weekend! Please kindly like this chart if you found this content helpful! Ok let's dive in! Lockheed Martin is still officially in a bear market. It is still 30% away from its all time high, with the technicals on the weekly indicating very tough days ahead for LMT holders. Tale of two stories here when it comes to very good fundamentals but very poor technical indicators. Ratio Time • P/E 14.64 (Very attractive) • Forward P/E 13.08 ( Boeing Forward P/E is 156.29 !!) • P/ FCF 27.57 • Debt/Eq 2.56 (Normally I would say this is really high in a different sector, but money is cheap right now and these guys are in a field that requires massive capital output...this is why if I see a level this high in a utility provider I am ok, but if I see a level this high in a financial or tech I run!) • EPS 23.4 • EPS this Y +25.8% • Sales Q/Q +8.7% • ROE +171% (again justifies that debt/equity level as they use debt very...prudently) • ROI +47% • Gross Margin 13.3% • Net Margin 10.2% (Stunning) ..especially when we see the rise in price recently in Boeing . Boeing has a 2.9% GM and a -7% Net Margin guys. Yes BA are losing money with a forward P/E of 156?? Holder Metrics • Insiders Own 0.08% • Insider Transactions over past 3 M (0.00) • Institutions Own 77.9% • Institution 3 Month Transactions -0.42% So what do we do when the technicals say run and the fundamentals say buy? We listen to both! The strategy I like to take ahead a potential trade when I see two conflicting tales are either run. Or wait for the technical indicators to display signs of a potential bottoming pattern. Next Chart will display pivot points . Finding a position at a lower price heading into the mean with good underlying fundamentals is a much better approach, although it takes patience and time as I think the idea of playing a short off the TA or a long strictly off the FA would be... short sighted. Best tactic is to embrace both and wait. Pivot points below! Friend please share with me & the wonderful TradingView community how you think we should trade Lockheed Martin! If you have a LMT chart yourself please be especially sure to share it with me!
NYSE:LMTEducation
by ZenMode
EDUCATION: Hidden Bullish DivergenceToday we consider very powerful technical analysis tool - the Divergence. Definition The divergence is a situation when the price change is not supported by the oscillator. There are four types of divergences: 1)Regular bullish - the price shows lower highs, while the oscillator shows higher lows 2)Hidden bullish - the price shows higher lows, while the oscillator shows lower lows (you can see on the chart) 3)Regular bearish - the price shows higher highs, while the oscillator shows the lower highs 4)Hidden bearish - the price shows lower highs, while the oscillator shows the higher highs Divergence Trading Rules Let's consider the market uptrend situation. If there is the hidden bullish divergence it means the uptrend continuation. In case of regular bearish divergence there is a high probability of trend reverse from uptrend to downtrend. Another situation is when the market is in downtrend. The regular bullish divergence in this situation can be the evidence of trend reverse in the future. In case of hidden bearish divergence the downtrend will continue with high probability. Indicators You can search the divergences not only with Stochastic RSI. Other oscillators are also suites great here. For example, CCI, RSI, Volume oscillator, MACD and other.
Education
by Skyrexio
1
Value investing toolkitHello Investors! This educational post is about my toolkit developed for filtering out the almost perfect applicants for further analysis and research in the light of the principals of value investing. The work is based upon Warren Buffett's principals, calculations and recomendations. After publishing my two previous posts on the "Value investing chart set" and the "Intrinsic value calculation" I have received a lots of positive comments and feedbacks. Alongside the encouraging comments I have received quite a lots of requests to share the chart layout and the other scripts I am using while compiling the chart set I have introduced. I have promised to further develope both tools and come up with an even more powerfull toolkit. Now it is here! :-) I have combined the already published Intrinsic value calculation script with the Value investing chart set and further developed both on the way! This setup now is way more powerfull and exciting and is loaded with features as described below. First of all: here is the public link to the shared chart layout setup: www.tradingview.com Which company could be more adequate for the introduction of a value investing toolkit than Berkshire Hathaway, the company of Warren Buffett? It is not just an honor to use this ticker for educational purposes but aparently -as you can see during the analysis- it makes a perfect long term investment! What a surprise, right? :-) Here I will only explain all the new features of this chart as there is a very detailed explanation of both the Intrinsic value calculation script and the Value investing chart set in those two posts. You can find the links for them below. SO! Obviously the biggest developement is poping into your eyes right away: I have programed a value investing analysis tool into the chart so whenever you enter a ticker, the toolkit will supply you with an instant assesment on the given ticker. Of course it is a very basic tool and can only supply you with a preliminary overview on the company and does not, in any way substitute detailed and troughly research before you make any investment decission! - The assessment is based on the principals Warren Buffett, Ben Graham layed down. Some of Peter Lynch's work has been used, too. - The tool is using a rather conservative approach as the main goal is to maintain the capital invested and only additional to that to produce adequate gain on the long run In general: if you see a green labell with the text 'Possible subject for firther research' than you have found a company which passed a conservative test and is worth for further study. Needless to say that if you see a red label with the text 'XX NOT RECOMENDED XX' and a bunch of reasons below, why (overvalued - overpriced - debt risk) do not rush to your broker to put your life savings on it. To give you an example, here is how Google is evaluated today: In order to get the green light a company has to meet the following, rather strict criterias: - Valuation: The current price of the stock has to be below the Intrinsic value. (In this case $224 closing price vs. $426 for the Int. value) This line will precisely tell you how far the price is from the Intrinsic value, in other words, it will tell you your margin of safety when investing to the company on today's price level. In this example it is 90% - Pricing: The close price has to be below the "Buffetts limit price" indicator. To make it short Graham and Buffet stated that the number you get when multiplying the Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio with the Price to book (P/B) ratio has to be below 22.5 in order to consider the given share cheap. This line will tell you how far the price is from the Buffetts limit price. This case it is 61%. ($224 vs. $361) - Debt risk: The company has to have much less debt than equity in order to qualify for long term value investing. The limit here is 1, meaning that the company has to have more equity than total debt. If this is not the case, the company fails the test. (This can be taken a little flexible as certain industries, like banking and insuarance by definition deploy a lots of debt instruments without risking their long term profitability or sustainability) In the example of Bershire this is 0,27 meaning that Berkshire has more than 3 times more equity than debt which is needless to say a more than perfect setup. (What do we expect from Mr. B, right?) These are the first 3 deciding criterias where a company can fail the test. Any of those turn to be out of range, you will get a red labell with a big fat NO recomendation. And most of the time this is going to be the case... As for the other points you will get more inside peek into the state of the company: - Price/book: this line will tell you if the price is still below the 1.5 times book value point. This is the highest price what value investors find comfortable paying. If the P/E value is very low for the share you might run into a situation where the Buffetts limit (P/E times P/B) is still low (below 22,5) but the stock is rather overpriced. You will not get a red labell here, only a 'Caution' warning and a grey label, instead of 'GOOD!' - Earnings: you will get an opinnion on the earnings here. The main criteria to get a 'GOOD!' evaluation is to have a growing level of EPS in the last 5 years. - Revenue: It is very important to invest in a company which is able to grow it's revenues steadily. This line will analyse that and will tell you if it wouldn't be so. - Profit & loss: Although it is not a deciding factor but a value investor should avoid investing to companies that were producing losses in the past decade or so. This line examines the last 5 years in this respect. - Dividend: The one and only point where Berkshire fails the test! :-) As Warren Buffett used to say: I am not paying income tax, Berkshire doesn't pay dividend... :-) Poor guy! Since we are investing for a very long term it is imperative that we top the gains we might have over the years with the 3-4% dividend p.a. As you can see here, there is a Warning! comment should the company fail in paying dividend. - Number of shares: Here you will see a quick analysis on the share buyback habits of the company/management. Again, what we examine here is wether the number of shares outstanding is less than 5 years ago or more which means that the company is buying back it's shares thus help investors to maintain equity. So entering your choosen ticker you should have an instant overview if the company can supply you with the value investing criterias or fails in this field. One very instructive exercise is to click through the leading blue chip stocks with this valuation toolkit and see how hugely overvalued they are at the moment. Some further developements I made in the mean time: - I have automated the calculation of the book value growth with finding the very first data point regardless when it happens. In this way you do not have to enter any parameter and you can simply click conveniently from one ticker to the other without reentering the needed inputs. Hopefully it doesn't matter which pricing structure you are in at TradingView. Free acounts will use 5 years data. - I have included a 4th pane just below the main pane. This shows the revenue of the company in 3 way: the white line is the anual values, the grey line is the quarterly data and I have also added the red line showing the TTM (trailing twelve month) figure in order to visualise the very recent trends in the revenue of the company. - The same way I have added the TTM figure on the lowest pane to the EPS figure, for the same reasons. - I have added explanatory labells to the right of the charts showing the actual value of the indicators, like the Intrinsic value, Buffetts limit, and book value. - Should either the Book value or the EPS figure be negative for the current year the script will issue a red label without any data regardless the other values as the Buffetts limit can not be calculated. (Negative numbers does not have square roots and that is required to calculate the limit price back from the P/E and the P/B values) One final remark: this toolkit is as complete as my knowledge is about value investing. It is a purely educational tool, not in any way intented to be investment advice. I do use this tool and for instance I do have position in this example company Bershire Hathaway at the time of writing this post. You have to make your own research and decision when it comes to investing your money. For further explanation on the Intrinsic value calculation please check my earlier post here: For further explanation on the Value investing chart set please check my earlier post here:
NYSE:BRK.BEducation
by PeterNagy
108
Value investing chart setI would like to share the set of charts I use to find and analyse candidates for value investing. It is a rather dense and telling setup where you can find a lots of information. Please allow me to explain them one by one. (The chart is made on the company Nippon Tel. It is not a recomendation for anybody to buy Nippon Tel, I use this chart for educational purposes only) So: what can you see in this chart? A LOT! You can, in a glance asses if a company would qualify for value investing or should be avoided. From bottom up here are the panes, charts, indicators explained: There are 3 panes in this setup. In the lowest pane you will find the dividend information. There are 3 indicators telling a lot about the company's endurance and discipline. We can see that in our example - the company has never been missing a dividend payment over the last 15 years (even during the 08 crisis) - the company has been constantly raising the dividends over the last 15 years - the company has made an ever growing diluted EPS (earnings per share) over the last 15 years - the investment in the current price levels would yield 3,69% (bottom right scale) - the company has been very disciplined to pay out about 50% of the earnings per share and retain the rest within the company resulting growing book value In the middle pane you can see the net income (green territory) of the company and the number of common shares outstanding (blue line). We can see that in our example - the company has been constantly making profit over the last 15 years (even during the 08 crisis) - the company constanly buying its shares back thus helping the existing shareholders to keep/grow the equity per share Now the top, main pane tells the most about the company and its share. Here is what you can read from this chart: - the yellow line will show the Debt to Equity ratio What this is telling you is that the company is ran by vigiliant leaders who are keeping a close eye on the company's long and short therm debt and resist the temptation of today's really cheap loans. As Peter Lynch use to say: it is almost impossible to go bankrupt for a company without excessive debt. The ratio Ben Graham and Warren Buffet (also Peter Lynch) finds healthy here is a 1 to 2 debt to equity ratio. In other words, it is assuring if half of the equity covers all the debt of the company. In the case of our example the current value of this ratio is 0,415 which is a very good level of debt. (Industry specific figure!) The company has been constantly paying it's debt back over the last 15 years and although the figure has been growing during the last 2 years it is still under a acceptable level. - the light brown line is the book value or the shareholder1s equity per share Needless to say the for a value investor it is imperative that the book value is steadily growing, just like in our example from 8,8 to 21. What is even more important is that the current price is below the book value per share or in other words a buyer in these price levels gets a 1 on 1 value for his bucks. Just to give you a comparison: today this value for Apple (AAPL) is 30 to 1! So you pay $ 30 for $ 1 of equity when you buy Apple stock. In our example the book value of this company is steadily growing and the price is currently below the book value. - the pink line on the pane is my "invention" as this is the intrinsic value graph which is calculated by the script I have posted already here. I would not explain in details here, please check out my post and all the comments below it for details. This line shows you what would be a fair value of the stock if you take all the dividends and the book value growth that will happen in the next coming 10 years and discount it back to today's value using the 10 years US Note's yield. This is called the intrinsic value of the company and calculating it is rather art than science, says Buffett. In the case of the example company the Intrinsic Value is around 43 while the price is a bit above 20 which means that a value investor has a 100% margin of safety when buying this stock. - the green/red line is another calculated line: Warren's limit price Ben Graham and Warren Buffett uses a rule of thumb saying that the PE (price earning ratio) multiplied by the Price to Book ratio can not result a higher value than 22.5 to be considered a cheap stock. Here I use the Diluted Earnings figure to calculate the PE ratio to take all the convertible securities (options, prefered stocks, warrants, etc) into consideration. This line shows if the stock can be valued as cheap or overpriced. In the case of our example the current price is under the limit price and can be considered an underpriced stock. As you can see there are lots of fundamental informations you can visualise and asses with this chart setup in order to pick your winning stocks for value investing.
FWB:NTTEducation
by PeterNagy
30
How To Pick The Right Choice For Long-Term Hold??What is the Fundamental Index (FCAS)? FCAS stands for Fundamental Crypto Asset Score. This score comes from examining the basics of a project's business cycle and shows the fundamentals of a digital currency. The principles that are considered for scoring are: User Activity , Developer Behavior and Market Maturity . FCAS ratings are numbers between 0 and 1000. The number 0 is the worst and the number 1000 represents the highest performance of a digital currency. Now let's talk about each parameters of scoring in details: User Activity: User Activity is a comprehensive measure of the behavior of all consumers in a particular project that includes two main factors: Using the project Network activity The advantage of this principle comes from examining all the activities of a particular blockchain, analyzing solutions if necessary (such as ERC-20 smart contracts), and tagging wallet addresses to identify exchanges, projects, contracts, users, and other types of participants. Various statistical and exploratory models are used to tag all active addresses. Network Activity is a comparable estimate based on the above classifications that focuses on the activities of wallets, stakers, miners, users, and investors. The Project Utilization parameter is calculated based on the activity of the wallets run by users (most of which are smart contract transfers and calls). This activity is used in the predefined application of the project. User activity has a great impact on the FCAS score of the project. Developer Behavior: Developer Behavior Behavior is an indicator that shows the level of activity and efficiency of the developers of a project and comes from three factors: Code changes Code improvements Project participation The score of this section is obtained by recording and evaluating source code events in services such as GitHub. There is a slight difference between the obvious criteria of the developer and the activity of the community, so in addition to the commits and pushes sections, other things are examined to get a deeper evaluation of the project. Accordingly, 30 different variables are examined, then generalized to the three factors mentioned above, from which the overall score of developer behavior is obtained. Developer behavior has a major impact on a project's FCAS rating. Market Maturity: Market maturity, which is obtained from the two factors of risk and money supply, indicates the degree of accuracy of a digital currency in the market. The more rational the market reactions to different scenarios and risk factors (factors such as liquidity, price plans, constant algorithmic forecasting and etc...), the higher the probability. Also in this principle, an analysis of the fixed money supply is performed in each of the projects. The more volatile the money supply and the more it is controlled by a small number of addresses, the lower the money supply points. Market maturity has little effect on a project's FCAS rating.
Education
by ArshiaZojaji
2
Documenting Your Trades (For Fun and Profit)How do you document your trades? In a spreadsheet? In a trading journal? Directly on the chart? How much is too much? How little is not enough? I say you need to document enough to tell the story properly. Every trade tells a story. As with all good stories you have a protagonist and an antagonist. Good guys and bad guys. The hero and the villain. And then, there's the journey. In the markets you are the hero and the market is the villain. One way I make trading "fun" and what helps me "tell the story of the trade" is to "Trade Like a Pirate" and use the vocabulary of Jack Sparrow. I have already written on this topic when it comes to analyzing profit targets (seizing treasure and plunder) but let's look at how we learn what we did on a trade by trade basis. When you do an after-the-trade analysis (what I call a postmortem) you should be able to see what you did right, what you could have done better, but most importantly, what you may have done wrong; not to beat yourself up, but to make sure that you *never* make that mistake or repeat that behavior again. (Fool me once, shame on you... fool me twice, shame on me!) For instance, I once lost three trades in a row and asked "How the heck did that happen?" and later when I looked at the actual trade screenshots I realized that both my trading timeframe and trend timeframe was the same! Somehow instead of having my charts on the 60-15 minute charts they were *both* 15 and I realized if I had my chart timeframes right I would have never entered those particular trades, saving me from experiencing those losing positions. Thanks to those trades, though, and thanks to my post-mortem analysis, the first item on my "pre-flight checklist" is now "Verify Trade Timeframes." Thanks to journaling and the postmortem process I'm *never* going to make *that* mistake again. But what about the *psychology* of the trade? *Why* did you enter it, *what* were you thinking once you were in it, *why* did you adjust your stop, *why* did you choose your target, *what* might you have done out of fear that got you out of the trade early or prevented you from realizing as much profit as you could have? Journaling your trade, or documenting the trade *properly* will help you with that. In the example above you can see a recent trade that presented itself to me and my pirate "Crew" in the Gasoline Futures market. I talk about the "weather conditions" before getting into the trade (the wind and the tide), other environmental factors like the "shark feeding frenzy area" helping me decide where I will target my profit (there be treasure *here*), what was going on when the trade actually entered, and finally, managing the trade to my target. In addition, during the postmortem I found an opportunity where if I had used a trailing stop, I could have gotten an additional 42% profit, or 'treasure'. As I mentioned in my Backtesting series, one of the reasons you backtest is that through repetition, you can often find patterns in your system that will prompt you to tweak it to either *improve* results or *eliminate* inefficiencies. In this same manner, through repetition in documenting your trades you may very well find a pattern of behavior that is holding you back from your full potential. For example, In the trade above, after securing 3R, (the minimum I am willing to take in a trade), if I followed price using my trailing stop strategy instead of a target, I found that I could have made an additional 2-3R profit. What if after documenting 20, 30, 40+ trades I find a similar pattern, that I am often "leaving money on the table"? I can then test several exit strategies to see which ones would give me the biggest bang for my buck and increase my R per trade. The other big benefit of having your trade journal "tell a story" rather than "state facts" is you begin to *personify* the market and see it as someone who exhibits certain behavior patterns, and that is what the markets present to us every day: PATTERNS. And if you can determine someone's patterns, you can predict their behavior. If I know that whenever my wife is browsing through a jewelry catalog and consistently goes "ooh" or "aah" over earrings with blue stones in them, I can guess with a high degree of accuracy that if I buy her a set of sapphire earrings she (and consequently*I*) will be a happy person. Likewise, if I can predict with a high degree what "Mister Market" is going to do based on certain patterns, I can keep setting sail, with confidence, day after day and see gains in my trading account (which makes me, my crew, and most importantly the missus, HAPPY! (Because when momma's happy, everybody's happy!). Trade well! (And Journal Well!) PS: Let me know how your journaling journey goes in the comments! I'd love to know how it "upped your trading game!" You can only improve what you analyze! -Anthony
NYMEX:RBF2021Education
by ocaptain
8
Take a closer look at price action analysis in trading Hi traders: Hope all is doing well. I want to do another quick educational video on price action analysis. Many have asked me to elaborate on this topic, and I thought video is the best way to do so. So basic understanding of price action analysis is that after a strong impulse phrase in the market, we will get a period of consolidation (correction) before the price is likely to resume the direction. This is what we can structures and patterns when the correction begin to form. Understand that when we dont see a correctional structure after a strong impulse, this is usually a sign from the market telling us the price may reverse soon. Its important to fully acknowledge what the market is presenting to us, and if we are seeing different clues from the market, then accept it, and change your analysis's view. As always let me know if you have any questions or comments. Thank you
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by jojofang0901
6
How to Develop a Short Trade using Top-Down AnalysisGood morning traders! Today we want to show you a practical case of how to apply multiple timeframes for the complete development of a trade. In this case it is BMY stock, and it is a trade that we ourselves will take if what we are expecting happens. 🔸What can we find in this chart? - First, what we can see is that in the 4H timeframe, the price has been moving in a range of 15-20% since May. - A few days ago, the price faced the resistance zone that is around $64-66. We consider it a resistance zone since every time the price reaches that level, it encounters a strong supply, which generates its subsequent downward movement. - Based on this, we decided that once a clear rejection was given, we would look for an opportunity to take a short trade. 🔸Descending to the 15Min chart, we see that after the rejection in the Resistance zone, the price generates a breakout of the Ascending Trendline. - Added to this behavior, the Support zone is penetrated strongly to the downside, and then the price consolidates forming a corrective structure in a pullback to the Resistance zone (previous support). - This is our opportunity to look for a short trade. - The corrective structure offers us a correct and safe R/R ratio. - The point where we will look for the entry of the trade will be in the breakout of the local low, with a stop loss behind the structure and the resistance zone. - And finally, the maximum target of the movement is the uptrend line.
NYSE:BMYEducation
by ThinkingAntsOk
BITCOIN Minimum Target: $36000 - Full ExplanationGood morning traders! We hope you are having a beautiful day. 🔸Today we want to show you our vision of bitcoin in the short-medium term and explain why we see it extremely bullish. - Speaking a bit of the context and history, we can see that bitcoin hits all-time highs in late 2017, reaching almost $20,000. After this, there came an abrupt decline that found its lows around $ 3000. From there, the upward movement has been resumed. - During this year, this crypto has made almost a 200% bullish movement. - Analyzing the behavior of the chart, we see that it has potential to be a Cup and Handle movement pattern. 🔸Now we go with a little of theory: - The cup and handle pattern implies a movement in the price that makes a high, a decline correcting movement, a consolidation at lows, and then the subsequent upward recovery. You can clearly see the transition from lower lows and highs to higher lows and highs. After this, it needs a retest of the previous highs (double top pattern), and for a bullish corrective move. 🔸Now, does this imply that bitcoin is going to breakout and make an explosive bullish move imminently? - We do not know, but according to the characteristics of this pattern, no. - What we should expect is a retest of the Resistance zone (all-time highs), and then a corrective move (flag, triangle, pennant, etc.). Once formed, the idea is to trade the breakout. - The MINIMUM target of the movement is calculated by measuring the distance between the minimum of the range and the maximum. - This calculation gives us a distance of $16500-$16600, which, projecting it upwards, gives us an approximate target of $36000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by ThinkingAntsOk
3
Risk Management - how not to lose your moneyLet's say you're new to trending. You have a deposit - for example, $ 10,000 - which you are ready to invest in earnings. And you come to the market with one thought - how to make more money! Stop! The first question that you should ask yourself before starting trading is: "How not to lose the money you already have?" Risk management will help you with this. There are many different "chips" and rules in order not to drain the deposit (and we will definitely talk about them in more detail). But today I want to discuss the most important rule: setting a risk limit. Different traders will give you different numbers. Someone considers the optimal risk of 5% of the deposit amount, someone - 7%. But everyone agrees that the amount should not exceed 10%. If a person tells you that you can bet more than this amount, he is not your friend. I believe that 1% of the deposit is optimal for beginners to trade. Few? No, it’s enough to make money and not enough to sell the house in case of failure. Above is a table with comparative risks - how much and how quickly you can lose depending on the percentage. I'll take $ 10,000 as an example. In this case, 1 percent of this amount will be $ 100. $ 100 is 0.1 lot to open a deal. This means that 1 pip on the chart will cost us $ 0.1. Maximum drawdown is the number of points that the price must go through in order for us to lose money (or, conversely, to earn). For example, the EURUSD currency pair can pass 1000 points per day. As you can see in the table: trading with an acceptable rate of 1% in case of failure will deprive us of only $ 100 10% - already $ 1000. 100% - all $ 10,000. Yes, if we succeed, we will be in the big plus. But the risk also increases. If you are a beginner trader, don't risk your capital. Open deals starting from a 1% deposit. If you are experienced... You can assume that I am conservative, but I also advise not to use more than 1% of the deposit. However, you are free to choose the percentage that is safe for you based on your background and strategy. ______________________________________________________________ Share with us what risk limit do you use in trading? Why choose this one? What other risk management rules do you want me to talk about?
Education
by DeGRAM
16
EURNZD Trade Recap, Analysis, Management Hi everyone: In this quick educational video, I will go over my 2 trades in EURNZD short. What was my analysis, management and thoughts on this bearish run. I will always start my analysis from the HTF, looking at what the price action is telling me will give me a better edge to enter higher probability setups. I want the HTF to be clear on the bias that I have on the direction. Then, using multi-time frame analysis, looking at what the LTF is telling you. Is it showing you the same price action like the HTF bias ? Wait for the market to give you the confirmation, i.e. continuation corrections, reversal price action structure, LTF impulses...etc that will give you the confidence to enter a trade. Manage the trade accordingly, move the SL to BE in profits depending on the strategies and style. Don't get emotional about the result of the trade, rather if you follow your plan, and you made the decision based on what the market and price action is telling you . Then, repeat consistently for every month, year. :) Thank you
Education
by jojofang0901
6
Educational material nr.8In this article I will tell you about another metrics, which can be usefull at analysis of the company. Based on GuruFocus metrics. Another metrics from Financial Strenghs metrics: Piotrowski F-score — used for understanding of the financial strengh of the company. Scores from 0 to 9. 1 score means, that company have one of the characteristics (positive net income, positive ROA, positive Operating Cash Flow, CFO is bigger then net income and other). 9 is the higher rank and means, that company is strong. Altman Z-score — measure of results of testing company on bankruptsy risk. Higher — means that company is safe. Beneish M-score — Metric of earning manipulation of the company. If it has negative score — that means, that company does not manipulate of the earnings. It can be analysed with comparison of PE and PE without NRI and PE with Cash Flow. WACC vs. ROIC — Weighted Average Cost of Capital vs Return On Invested Capital. If ROIC > WACC, that means that investing in this company is effective and profitable, because capital generate profit, which is bigger then cost of capital. Metrics from Profitability Rank 3-Year Revenue Growth Rate — average revenue growth rate per 3 years. Usual auxilar metric. 3-Year EBITDA Growth Rate — same average meaning of EBITDA per 3 years. 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate - EPS without NRI per 3 years. This 3-years average metrics are not so important then metrics per 5-10 years, because they have big influence of not-so-far-news/acts of firm. From Dividend and buyback metrics: Dividend Yield % - financial ratio, show relation dividends to stock price. Higher — means good, but it depends from company’s situation. For example 0 means, that firm does not pay dividends, but makes re-investments, what have positive influence on company. Dividend payout ratio — dividends, which payed related to the company net income. Forward Dividend Yield % - Usually don’t used, from reason of future non-guaranted company work. But it can be usefull for understanding expectation of the market. 5-Year Dividend-on-Cost % - Rarely used, but can be useful in some situations. Dividend divided by price of purchasing of the stock. They are used from situation in analysing of the company. Because they can add some points to see full situation if main metrics and indicators with financial statement analythis can’t give review of the firm.
NASDAQ:EXELEducation
by ValueInvest_Pro
THE BIG PICTURE: Health is everything! Man and Money vs Virus! I think this chart will be of interest, in overlooking the big picture. I say what I see and it is largely about a health timebomb approaching. So I deal with some technical and hidden fundamental issues. Always say what you see on the charts! Remember TA is about sentiment - until reality catches up. 1 - A popped bubble. 2 - A reinflated bubble. 3 - A reinflated bubble struggling to remain inflated. 4 - Total daily cases of COVID continuing north. 5 - Total daily cases is rising above the area of struggle in the DJI. Note that the DJI represents sentiment in the top 30 major organisations - so it is important. I entirely accept that because total daily cases is summative, it is not a sound measure of the impact of the virus on health or control of the virus. But think deeply - yes these are fundamental issues - representing ' reality '. The total number of people infected means that a percentage of them will suffer lasting effects of the virus e.g. central nervous system problems, mental health disorders, clotting disorders, lung problems, heart problems and exacerbations of previous illnesses. This means there is a mounting economic burden that isn't quite realised by leaders. Why is biotechnology and services servicing those industries flourishing? Obvious - isn't it. Healthcare directed at fighting COVID has left lots of people with significantly reduced care for non-covid related conditions. What happens to those people? It can be expected that their health will deteriorate. I can't go into a whole list of medical conditions - but it's massive. There is only minor focus on the economic impact of that. Nations need 'health' for workforces to contribute well to 'the economy' and to service debt. Our leaders have focused on 'the economy' and preventing a major financial crash that was coming anyway. The virus was just the pinprick. There was in the UK recently a situation where health set against the economy. This was misguided simply because health is the economy. When people think of health they usually think of physical health. However, there is another ticking time bomb of mental health problems . Nobody knows exactly how big this is gonna be. If you thought people with physical health problems were neglected, then it is much bigger for those with new or pre-existing mental health problems. People who are mentally disabled but were managing with aids, adaptations and supervision aren't getting all that as they would have pre-covid. Is this likely to improve in the next 6 months? I don't think so. How can economies recover if they are beaten by seriously damaged physical and mental health of its workforces? Difficult one. Financial hardships are projected to get worse into Winter, in the northern hemisphere. That's not good for physical or mental health. I have little doubt that agents of the FED will pump this market north, and that Robinhoods will punch the air with the FED. However, you can't create a sound economy built on thin air. The bedrock of a sound economies are the health of people. If money printing would solve everything, then GDP and employment (of various types) would be irrelevant. Surely they aren't irrelevant. So - expect the unexpected, is what I'm saying. Near 100% retracements in the face of such fundamental issues has to be suspect. There could be a big 'drop' coming - so stay alert (no predictions today - only probabilities). Those hoping for Gold to rocket north may also have a surprise. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
Technical Analysis OverviewThe investment decision is based out of two different ways: Fundamental Analysis: Analyzing a company's financial statement Technical Analysis: Understanding the market sentiment behind price trends Technical Analysis The study of statistical trends, collected from historical price and volume data, to identify opportunities for trade. Assumptions of technical analysis Market discounts everything History tends to repeat itself (psychological) Price moves in trend (reflexive) Trend A trend is the overall direction of a market or an asset's price identified by trendlines. Three possible trends: Uptrend: Asset going up, making higher highs or higher lows Downtrend: Asset going down, making lower highs or lower lows Sideways: Asset trades in horizontal channel Technical Analysis considers: (Basics of Technical Analysis) Price Chart Patterns Volume-Momentum Indicator Oscillators Moving Average Support Resistance levels Movements are not linear, the price will face resistance as it goes up or support as it goes down. -‍Resistance: Level where an uptrend can be expected to pause or rebound due to a concentration of sellers. -Support: Level where a downtrend can be expected to pause or rebound due to a concentration of buyers. Technical Indicators broadly serve three functions to alert, to confirm, and to predict. There are two types of indicators: Leading Indicator: Leads the pice, generates a signal for trading opportunities. Eg. Oscillators i.e. RSI, CCI, Stochastic, Williams %R, Momentum, etc. Lagging Indicator: Follows trends and patterns, reduces the risk in exchange for missing early opportunities. Eg. Moving Averages, Bollinger Band, and MACD. A few myths about Technical Analysis: TA is only for short trading or day trading- TA can be used in all time frames, from 1 minute monthly charts TA has a low success rate- Solely TA can give you profits if used effectively Technical Analysis is quick and easy- Continued success requires in-depth learning, practice, good money management, and discipline Ready-made technical analysis software can be helpful- Such software may provide insights about trends or patterns but cannot guarantee profits, use of backtesting is necessary TA can provide price predictions accurately- TA is about probability and likelihood, and not guaranteed thereby price ranges can be predicted The winning rate in TA should be higher- Profitability does not depend solely on win-rate, it also incorporates risk-reward ratio Limitations of Technical Anlaysis Tend to give mixed signals when used in isolation, confusing traders TA is all about probability and signal cannot guarantee a successful trade even after thorough analysis Often technical analysts use indicators in different methods and may form a biased view regarding the same stock Many a time the technical signal may lag, and by the time proper signal is generated it is possible that the trade might be over A single trading strategy may not work in all scenarios as markets tend to be extremely dynamic Few Trading Mistakes Beginners Make: Starting with real money The best way to get acquainted with trading rules is to have a demo with virtual money before investing in real money, you can perform paper trades on Mudrex Not examining situation by yourself Make your own strategy, test them on the Mudrex platform, and then follow the same plan to trade by understanding things on your own Inevitable Losses Set risk limits for yourself and trade accordingly and accept the losses you face Margin Trading in the beginning It is not recommended to margin trade until and unless you understand the risk completely as crypto trading is rewarding yet risky Following the herd Before making a start with real money, make a set of rules which needs to be followed and have stop losses to limit the loss incurred on your trade ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you find the post useful, please like and share our ideas with the community! - Mudrex
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mudrex
19